Politics with Marc Ambinder

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Nov 17 2009, 6:43PM

E-mails Portray Palin Campaign Trail Chaos

In her new book, former Alaska Gov.. Sarah Palin describes the push-and-pull between John McCain's campaign headquarters and her plucky "B" team on the road. As Palin recounts it, her natural instincts to reach real voters and reach out to the press were frequently foiled by an overprotective senior staff, led by strategist Steve Schmidt, that did not trust her.  

Palin acknowledges "going rogue" at points - but usually to positive effect, such as the time she rewrote a speech to special needs children or her wondering out loud about "why I was prohibited from calling the other ticket out on more of its strange associations."

At one point, Palin criticizes the campaign for forcing her to spend too much time glad-handing donors and local elected officials. "Why couldn't we focus more attention on the everyday folks who attended our rallies," she asks.

More

May 2 2009, 10:20AM

The Next 100 Days

The first 100 days have been, in some sense, the easy part. President Obama gave stuff to people. Now he's going to have to ask people to give things up.

Domestically, he has primarily accomplished two things: He has succeeded at client politics (i.e. pleased the Democratic base), and he has gotten the federal government to perform demand-side spending (i.e. given things to people). For his efforts, the American people have rewarded him with an approval rating above 60 percent. And Congress has passed a budget resolution that starts to pay for his top priorities.

So far, Obama has been extraordinarily deferential to the legislative branch, drawing only the broadest of outlines and letting powerful liberal committee chairs in the House and centrist committee chairs in the Senate fill in the details. He's tinkered at times, but mostly he's just listened or occasionally cajoled -- acting as a president who respects the balance of power.

Read more of Marc Ambinder's essay, "The 2nd 100 Days," here.

Apr 30 2009, 9:00AM

I Smuggled Water Into The East Room

"Ladies and gentlemen. The program will begin shortly."

A disembodied voice really does say that about 15 minutes before the presidential news conference. You half expect to see Greg Giraldo come out to warm up the crowd.

On the suggestion of a reader, here's a moment-by-moment travelogue of what it's like to attend a presidential news conference at the White House. I'm a security geek, but I'm going to omit a few details that might otherwise help bad people do bad things.

So the first thing you do to get in to the White House on newser night -- incidentally a "newser" is journospeak for "news conference," which, because it includes a statement at the top, is different from a "presser," which is just a Q and A.  But journalists use both terms interchangeably -- the first thing you do is to apply for a seat.

The White House received more than 1,000 applications for 250 seats.

Most of them are allocated to holders of White House hard passes. Since I don't get to the White House everyday, I don't qualify for a hard pass.  But it's pretty easy to get into the White House if you're an accredited reporter: you can call the press office, and they'll submit your name, Social Security number and date of birth through a system called WAVES, which subjects you to an automatic background check and figures out if your name is on a Secret Service watch list.

Thankfully, WAVES never holds me up.  At that point, it's as easy as showing your ID to the guard at the West Front gate, going through the magnetometer, and walking into the White House. Well, it's a little more complicated, but, again, in the interest of security, I'll be vague.  An interesting twist: non-U.S. citizens have to be escorted everywhere they go...even members of the press. Different passes give different levels of access.

Interlude: Sometimes, if we're interviewing senior officials, we're given  "A" passes. There two types; "A" alone, and "A" with the words "ESCORT"."  The regular "A" pass can get you anywhere in the West Wing except for the Oval Office, the Cabinet Room and a few other corners and crannies.  Last week, as I sat waiting in the West Wing lobby for an appointment, I noticed that Ret. Gen. Scott Gration, the President's point person on Sudan, had the same pass as I did. Richard Holbrooke, the increasingly powerful envoy to Af-Pak-everywhere else, rushed through the lobby. He wasn't wearing a pass. He yelled at an assistant that he "needed to go catch up with Hillary."  Also -- somewhat weirdly, as I waited, I listened to a Marine guard and the uniformed Secret Service agent on duty quietly argue about the torture memos.

Anyway, a pass or WAVES access alone won't get you into the East Room for the news conference. You've got to win that lottery. Once you do, you're allocated a credential with a number on it.  Last night, I was "245," which corresponded to seat 245 on a map that's given to President Obama and television producers so they can find reporters who are on the question list.

Last night, I arrived at the White House early, picked up my news conference pass, and then left the complex to go meet with a source.

45 minutes later, I was caught in a line of reporters outside the West Front gate, but I was back in the complex by 6:30 pm.

The press briefing room was filled to capacity, so I waited outside in the light rain, watching the Secret Service shift changes and counting the number of cigarette stubs on the ground.

At 7:00, a press aide began to escort us up the stairs, round a bend, and through the famous front doors of the White House.  Don't try to bring water into the residence --- they'll confiscate it. I snuck some in anyway.

Then we wait. Most of us have prepared questions, even though there's a roughly one in twenty chance that we'll be asked. Actually, fewer than one in 20, because all the network correspondents get a question. Last night, Fox's Major Garrett didn't, but maybe the White House was retaliating because the Fox network decided it did not want to lose more money and refused to air the presser.

The more experienced correspondents amble in later; the eager beaver newsbies -- like me -- get in there early, even though we have assigned seating.  Last night, I was placed between the New York Post's Charlie Hurt and the presidential historian Martha Joynt Kumar.   CSPAN's Steve Scully escorted Helen Thomas, still the dean of the press corps, to her front-row seat.

After spending some time chatting with Kumar about the history of presidential press conferences,  I joked around a bit with the New Yorker's Ryan Lizza about seating: what would it take to get Chuck Todd to rush out -- so we could grab his seat in the front row?  We recalled a Murphy Brown episode where the lead character telephoned her network's White House reporter and told him that his wife was in labor.  The reporter bolted and Murph got the seat.

Then comes the surreal stuff.

There's a moment -- usually with about two minutes to go -- where four or five network correspondents, standing feet apart, talk over each other, saying much the same thing.  Then you hear the voice of CBS's Mark Knoller, who gives a last minute radio update. Then the same from ABC's Ann Compton.

Ed Henry finished his stand-up early. Only NBC's Chuck Todd and CBS's Chip Reid were left standing.

Chuck groaned. He knew that he and Chip were about to stumble over one another.

Chuck then realized that everyone was looking at him.  He informed his producer of this.

Then he joked that someone was going to Twitter the conversation. (I did.)

Chip, who has sworn off Twitter and has never been on Facebook, dryly wondered how many people would read it.

Chuck misheard Chip, thinking that Chip was talking about ratings.

So Chuck struck back, saying something like: "Do we really want to get into a ratings comparison?"

Everyone from the photogs to members of Obama's staff said "Oooooh."

Then, at about 8:01, Obama's senior staff filed in -- the top advisers to the south side of the room and the comms staff on the north side. The announcer introduces the President. We all stand up.  The teleprompter begins to roll....

...

Why, if we get the transcript right away, do we take notes? A few of us have TV hits after, so we need to jot down our thoughts. And the print writers face tight deadlines, so they've got to write their articles in shorthand, essentially, during the newser. (BTW: the White House sent around the transcript at 8:15 am...not exactly promptly!)

Ah darn. Michael Scherer of Time asks my question about the state secrets privilege. But he asks it better than I would have, and I'm glad that we now have the president on the record about this subject.

...

After the news conference, people are mean. The anchors have to do their stand-ups, but everyone is standing up and in each others way. The camera guys and gals begin to yell. "Down in front."  "Damn it, get down."  People push each other.  It's best to scramble for an exit or stay in your seat.

I had a 9:20 pm live hit from the front lawn for a CBS webcast.

In a light rain, Chip Reid and I walked to the area known as "Pebble Beach."  That's where all the networks have permanent camera set-ups.  We asked each other what the lead of the night was.  I attempted a metaphor about cars.  We both agreed that there really wasn't much of a lead.

At Pebble Beach, Obama's two senior advisers, Valerie Jarrett and David Axelrod, moved from location-to-location.  Jarrett spent nine minutes answering Katie Couric's questions and then popped out the CBS earpiece, walked about twenty feet to her left, and put in an NBC earpiece.

I chatted with some lower-level staffers. "How'd he do?" one asked me.  I insisted that my answer be off-the-record.

I then did the CBS News hit.  I used the same earpiece as Valerie Jarrett, which is either cool or gross. (A little of both, right?)

At 9:45, CBS News executive producer Rick Kaplan wrapped me for the night.

By 9:50, I was back at the West Front Gate to hand in my pass.

In Lafayette Park, I saw flashing lights and a gaggle of Secret Service Uniformed Division Officers.

"What's going on?" I asked the gate officer.

"Just some stupid protest," he said.

Apr 23 2009, 1:50PM

Why Is President Obama
So Frakkin' Popular?

The vast array of 100-days literature all aims to answer one question: what is Obama doing so well? Here's a guy who Republicans can't get the media to hold to the same standards; here's a guy who is almost single-handedly pulling the nation's confidence up by its tattered bootstraps. For the first time in memory, even amid a recession that shows no real signs of slowing or abating, Americans are confident about their future. The Old Guard has a few explanations; they are usually historical-at-the-expense of contextual -- that Obama is basically as popular as activist presidents tend to be in their first 100 days -- or contextual at the expense of historical -- That the media and the political culture are treating the new president with too much respect and that Americans aren't smart enough to figure out that he's an avatar for neo-socialism.   

I have an five-part answer. It all flows together. 

1. Democrats give Obama an approval rating of between 93% and 95% -- higher than they gave even Bill Clinton during his moments of passion.  Moderate Democrats and liberal Democrats like Obama for different reasons, but this is their moment, they know it, Obama is blowing the embers from the bully pulpit.  Go back to the Clinton era, when Clinton's policy instincts won over moderates and his personality won over liberals. Obama's policy instincts are winning over liberals and his personality -- he really does fit the institution of the presidency --  is perfect for moderate Democrats.

2. Republicans are the party of [REDACTED].  They've not begun to recover from whatever hurricane it was that hit them over the past three-to-four years. But that's almost less important than the way in which they've utterly failed to figure out how to engage this president on his own terms. They're stuck in the Clinton-Bush era of parity partisanship; with a few exceptions, Republican leaders are confused by Obama, they don't understand why his appeal sustains, and they can't figure out a way to change the way they do politics to comport with the new era.  The country suffers from the lack of a disciplined, intellectually honest, spirited opposition. Obama's figured out a way to appear bipartisan without getting Republican votes. 

3. Independents remain firmly rooted in the Democratic garden. They're skittish about deficits, but they love Obama. They trust him, alone, of all the institutions of and figures in -- government. 

4. The first 100 days, the government created trillions of dollars out of thin air, has cut taxes, has given billions and billions to client groups, state governments and corporations. Give, give, give. Not much has been asked in return. Obama's toughest call -- whether to send troops to Afghanistan -- is going to cost him politically when there's a spike in violence -- or when Pakistan explodes -- but this hasn't happened yet. 

5. Obama isn't that special. As Thomas Mann notes, the doubling of the the rate of disapproval among Republicans and the resulting pattern in the numbers suggests that Obama isn't all that different from other, ideologically polarizing presidents.  But, as Mann notes, it is one thing to remain popular when crisis aren't pervasive; it is quite another to keep the numbers up when you're forced to sell unpopular economic policies (TARP, bailouts) as a means towards keeping those numbers up.

So -- what's the answer?

6. Obama ran as a change candidate, and while the list of his accomplishments might not compare quantitatively with FDRs, the scope of the policy and personality changes is incredible. And Obama can move policy along with Republicans -- and hasn't yet gotten punished for it.

Here's Mann:

The President is trusted over the Republican opposition to deal with the serious problems confronting the country by a margin of more than two-to-one. The Republican party has gotten smaller, more conservative, and less popular. The public sees its unified stance against Obama's proposals as political (the party of "no") and not constructive. That opposition stance has helped unify Democrats in support of their president and tilted Independents decisively in his direction. And that in turn makes Obama even more likely to rely heavily on his own party in moving important policy changes through Congress.

Read Mann's entire speech. He's not terribly confident that this state of affairs will last forever, and he thinks that Obama will someone have to force the Republicans to cooperate with him at some point in the near future. And he thinks that, at some point, a receipt for the public's veneration of Obama and the institution of the presidency will come due.