Politics with Marc Ambinder

January 2009 Archives

Jan 30 2009, 1:38PM

RNC Round Three: Steele Leading

Maryland's Michael Steele: 51

Kentucky incumbent Mike Duncan: 44

South Carolina: Katon Dawson: 34

Michigan's Saul Anuzis: 24

Ohio's Ken Blackwell: 15

 

Typical of the mood in the room, as related by correspondent Will DiNovi, is what Joe Trillo, a national committeeman from Rhode Island, had to say:  "It's a diverse party. We're tired of being labeled as white supremacists."


Maine GOP chair Mark Ellis says he's still supporting Duncan, owing to Duncan's proven ability as a manager and a fundraiser.

Jan 30 2009, 1:24PM

RNC: Steele Bounces On First, Second Ballots

Results from the second round of balloting:

Chairman Mike Duncan -- 48

Michael Steele -- 48   (the crowd seems to be pro-Steele; he had more seconding speeches than anyone else.)

Katon Dawson -- 29

Saul Anuzis -- 24

Ken Blackwell -- 19

Here's my handicapping on the results of the first ballot:

Chairman Mike Duncan  -- 52 -- lower than expected

Michael Steele: 46 -- about 5-6 votes higher than expected.

Katon Dawson: 28: -- he'll get some Blackwell votes in the second round. 

Saul Anuzis:  22:  -- a tough finish for the Midwesterner.

Ken Blackwell: 20 -- this is his ceiling.

To watch: whether the RNC members interpret Duncan's showing as evidence that he's going to win.

 

Jan 30 2009, 1:22PM

A Cheat Sheet To Today's RNC Race

For those who've been paying attention to other matters, here's a quick guide:

The RNC chair has two main duties over the next several years. He (all the candidates are men) has to harness the technological advances of the Obama campaign to increase the efficiency of Republican fundraising and outreach. And he will be in a position to shape the type of Republican who is nominated for president.  The RNC chairman can appoint a drafting committee to send him a proposal to adopt a calendar in 2012 that incentivizes certain states into holding caucuses or conferences, and not primaries.

Conservative candidates tend to win smaller contests because they're better able mobilize activists. The RNC chairman can therefore assure that the primary calendar tilts towards conservative candidates, just as, in the late 1970s and early 1980s, the Democratic calendar tilted against establishment favorites.

This power is significant. But the candidates are only talking about it in code.

One of the biggest public debates is whether former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele is conservative enough - or, rather, whether he surrounds himself with conservatives.

Steele was a charter member of a centrist group called the Republican Leadership Council, a group that is very unpopular with the party's conservatives. If Steele were to win, the worry is not that he would broaden the party's tent too much. It's that his lieutenants would be beholden to centrists, who in turn would exercise influence over the nomination process.

In addition, certain candidates are perceived to be stalking-horses for certain candidates. Michigan's Saul Anuzis is cozy with consultants who helped Mitt Romney's presidential bid, although many Romney consultants are supporting other candidates.

Tennessean Chip Saltzman's bid was clipped early on when former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee began to make calls on his behalf. As there is no frontrunner for the 2012 nomination - not even Sarah Palin merits that designation - the committee doesn't want to endorse a chairman who is beholden to a particular candidate.

Admittedly, this is a very parochial way of looking at a high-profile American political job. All the candidates pay lip service to the idea that the RNC needs to better communicate Republican ideals, but they know that, until there is a 2012 nominee, the RNC's public face will be fuzzy and inconsequential.

Very privately, a few of the candidates have expressed discomfort with the ideological ghetto the party finds itself in - way too beholden to southern Christian conservatives - but none dare make that argument publicly.

Instead, virtually all of the candidates say they want to increase outreach to blacks and Hispanics, though they have no real plans for this yet.

Their basic diagnosis of the problem facing Republicans is that Republicans have lost their ideals, that they arrived in Washington and turned into Washingtonians.

None believes that the party is too conservative, or that suburbanites and white college-educated voters have been turned off by the party's flashy Christian identity - even though this is what exit polls seem to suggest.

Where the RNC members do worry about public opinion is the question of race. There are two black Republicans running for the job - Steele, and Ken Blackwell, a former Ohio Secretary of State. Blackwell has the support of the committee's hard core social conservatives, and not many others.

One white candidate, South Carolina chairman Katon Dawson, has a history that makes Republicans nervous:  within the past few years, he was forced to resign from a country club that did not admit blacks.

The current chairman, Mike Duncan, is an amiable technocrat who gets along with everybody. But he's not "change." Duncan is perceived to be the frontrunner if only because of inertia, and because no other candidate has caught fire.

Jan 30 2009, 1:21PM

The Judd Gregg Project

Now that Sen. Judd Gregg has confirmed that Obama administrations are putting him through the feelers for the Commerce Secretary job, we should pause to untangle the various political ramifications.

The White House isn't commenting, but my understanding that Gregg is a leading candidate for the job, not just a regular candidate.

On the surface, Gregg's nomination would help the administration bolster its bipartisan credentials. Gregg, a budget hawk, might been seen as the budget-cruncher's advocate inside the administration. Blue Dog Democrats and moderate Republicans would be satisified that the Obama Administration is serious about reforming the budget project and committed to fiscal discipline.

Under the surface, there are fears.

Republican politicos don't want Gregg to abandon the party and potentially give Democrats their 60th seat. They figure that New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch (D) is certain to appoint a fellow Democrat to replace him for the duration of his term, which ends in 2010. 

But Lynch doesn't have those partisan proclivities. He is very sensitive to the coalition in New Hampshire he has built. And he might -- just might -- find an acceptable Republican or independent to fill the seat.

The White House understands that Gregg's successor might be a Republican; Gregg understands that the White House does not object to this possibility, which is one reason why Gregg is taking the call to serve so seriously.

Jan 29 2009, 2:02PM

Sounds Like A Law Firm

The Center for American Progress is about to release a report advocating a new political tack for Democrats. They're going to tie the GOP alternative proposals to -- yes -- President Bush's now-unpopular agenda. 

CAP calls it the "Bush-Boehner-Cantor" Economic Agenda. 

It's the first real pushback by Democrats to the substantive pushback by House Republicans. Lots of pushing back.  Based on this theme, a coalition of labor, liberal and progressive groups will unveil some television advertisements designed to pressure frosh and vulnerable House Republicans. CAP notes where the B-B-C team uses the same language as President Bush to describe their proposals -- although, to be fair, criticizing the GOP for wanting an Alternative Minimum Tax fix is questionable.  We'll learn more details on a conference call later today.

Jan 29 2009, 1:34PM

Union v. Union

UniteHere is in disarray. The progressive union's president has sued his co-president. In California, SEIU just won a major battle against a dissident local. Tens of thousands of union members are split at a time when the movement needs unity of purpose. But the disputes are real, and they involve millions of dollars in resources, political and legislative priorities, and, of course, massive personalities.  You can find more about the specifics here, but the take-away is that the movement is struggling to hold itself together, and its enemies sense this, and are going to take advantage of it.