A few weeks ago the Obama administration released a stimulus metrics report
(pdf) promising that 75 percent of the stimulus would pay out in the
first 18 months. Fiscal stimulus, said team Obama, should to be timely.
And they received a bit of a drubbing for saying so: early reports
suggested that the House version of the bill would pay out at a tardier
rate than promised.
Well, earlier today the CBO released its cost estimate
(sorry, another pdf) of the conference version of the bill. According
to the CBO, the deficit will increase by $584.3 billion in the first 18
months, out of a total $787.2 billion deficit increase. By my math
that's a 74.2251 percent payout rate. So unless someone wants to be
awfully punctilious about the missing .7749 percent, I think it's safe
to say that the stimulus bill meets the standard of timeliness that
Obama set for himself.
On the other hand, if you substract the silly $70 billion for the AMT patch -- and I do want to be annoyingly punctilious about that -- the payout rate drops a couple of percentage points. Still, it's not bad.
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Feb 13 2009, 8:17 pm







Thanks for doing the math. I was worried that the Republicans had weakened the stimulus bill to the point of failure. And $70 billion AMT stuck in by Senator Grassley with zero stimulus power! We need to save our money for his opponent's campaign.