People generally approve of President Obama's job performance, and they view him favorably--Pollster.com averages show a 59.9 percent job approval and a 61.7 percent favorability ratings. These numbers have slid consistently since the excitement of his inauguration, but right
direction/wrong track responses are trending in his favor: "wrong track" still wins by a margin
of ~15 percentage points, but the gap has been closing since Inauguration Day.
Everyone is waiting and wondering whether Obama's economic agenda will succeed, once it's had time to kick into gear. But a new poll from the Center for Economic and Entrepreneurial Literacy shows, as others have suggested, that Americans expect the recession to last for a while: by far the largest chunk of respondents (41 percent) said they expect the economy won't recover for another one to three years. (1,002 people were polled; margin of error +/- three percent.) The respondents to this poll, at least, appear to have little faith that the stimulus and the bank plan will bring the U.S. out of a recession soon.
Evidently Americans think Obama is doing the right things, but that the
recession will continue nonetheless. Or, perhaps, they're waiting to
see what happens, but without much hope, and they expect they'll be
disappointed with Obama in one to three years. The latter seems a bit
unlikely, since the majority of Americans voted for him not long ago.
If America is still in a recession in a year or two, either Americans
will blame Obama or they won't. That may depend on how effectively
Obama can claim his policies attenuated the recession without ending
it, and it would be hard to know whether that claim is accurate (his
claim that the stimulus will save or create three to four million jobs,
it has been pointed out, is a little tough to verify). But the fact
that Americans like his performance (albeit to a lessening degree)
while also expecting a continued recession seems to indicate that his
political fate might be dissociated from the recession. That, of
course, may not hold up over time if those 41 percent are right about
the nation's economic future.
I'm not sure polls measuring how effective a particular set of measures will be are particularly valuable. From many polls that we now have it's fairly conclusive that the public think this was brought about by the financial industry and Bush/Republicans. Obama's clearly got masses of leeway in the public mind but its hard to see if it's still in the tank in two years time he doesn't start to get some responsibility. Conversely, if things are turning around by next Spring he is going to be solid gold. The same is true of the democrats generally...they are going to go up or down with Obama which is why all this agonizing over minor policy differences within the democratic caucus is total baloney largely invented by the media. Personally, I'm sure the economy will be on the mend by next spring if not sooner and hence he'll be gold. Quite apart from his own huge political talents the Republicans have been incredibly UNLUCKY in timing while he has been incredibly LUCKY in his. This is sort of poetic justice....almost makes me believe in a higher being.
I think that two things are simultaneously true: people approve of the job Obama is doing and they also think that things might be so far gone he won't be able to pull this thing around in four years. I think people constantly say: Obama will own this economy. I think that George Bush owns this bad economy just as Herbert Hoover owned the recession. People know it took Roosevelt a decade; they believe it'll take a long time to fix this mess too. In the meantime, they like the guy and they like the fact that he's been focused on the middle class.
If Barack Obama and the democrats in Congress get health care through this year, a huge saftey net as this crisis deepens, I have no doubt that democrats will expand their majority in 2010 and Obama will win in 2012.
"If Barack Obama and the democrats in Congress get health care through this year, a huge saftey net as this crisis deepens, I have no doubt that democrats will expand their majority in 2010 and Obama will win in 2012."
Rhoda: couldn't agree more. I don't think the pundit class who after all live fairly insulated lives have any idea of how pivotal this is. Paradoxically some conservatives like Kristol and Krauthammer do. They can see it's going to completely change the the relationship of the people and their govt in a way that will be irreversible just as SS and Medicare did. Basically Obama has three tasks this year: stabilize the banking system, turn the economy around and pass universal healthcare. If he does these three things the Dems are going to substantially increase their majorities 2010 and he's a shoo in for 2012.