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Apr 15 2009, 4:39 pm

Tea Pary Turnout: A Rundown of Estimates

A bare minimum of 25,650 people turned out for tea party protests across the country today, according to news estimates, a survey of reports from local newspapers, TV affiliates, and wire services shows.

Presumably, more than that turned out. The tendency of smaller cities (particularly state capitols) to draw larger crowds makes counting difficult, and many news outlets were not specific in their estimates (reporting "hundreds" or "thousands," for instance, as opposed to specific numbers--the 25,650 figure assumes the lowest possible numbers within those ranges).

(UPDATE: A reader, randy_khan, makes a good point, one that I should have included in the first place: in some of these estimates, reporters do not specify where the estimates are coming from--direct observation, police, or organizers--though I purposely did not include estimates that were explicitly attributed to protesters or organizers.)

Larger protests in San Antonio and Atlanta happening later in the day have yet to be accounted for, so the number will likely rise. Turnout for protests in other cities, such as Miami, has not been estimated. Organizers have estimated 600-800 protests nationwide.

Here's a preliminary rundown of crowd estimates:

-Annapolis, MD: "hundreds," according to the Baltimore Sun

- Austin, TX: 1,000, according to The Dallas Morning News. Gov. Rick Perry (R) addressed the crowd.

 - Bakersfield, CA: 150-200 as of noon Pacific, according to the Bakersfield Californian. House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) will reportedly attend a tea party protest there today.

- Boston, MA: 500, according to The New York Times

- Chicago, IL: "thousands," according to the Chicago Daily Observer

- Cincinnati, OH: 4,000, according to the Associated Press

- Dallas, TX: 500, according to The Dallas Morning News (a larger rally is expected later Wednesday night)

- Denver, CO: 5,000+, according to The Denver Post

- Des Moines, IA: 1,000, according to the Associated Press

- Hartford, CT: 3,000, according to the Associated Press

- Lansing, MI: 4,000, according to the Associated Press

- Madison, WI: "thousands," according to the Associated Press (event organizers claimed 5,000). Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) appeared.

- Montgomery, AL: 1,000, according to the Associated Press

- Morristown, NJ: 300, according to the Associated Press

- New Haven, CT: 1,000, according to the Associated Press

- Sacramento, CA: 2,000, according to a local ABC affiliate (Fox News reported 5,000, according to AFP)

- Washington, DC: "hundreds" gathered in front of the White House, according to The Washington Post (AFP reported roughly 1,000)

Comments (17)

I wouldn't assume that the estimates are low. There's a good chance that the numbers are based on what the organizers told the reporters, and organizers are notorious for overestimating how many people show up for their events.

More to the point, compared to any number of recent events, the tea parties don't seem to be drawing very well. It sounds likely that President Obama had more people at his Election Night event in Chicago (and remember, it was cold that night) than the total number of tea party participants, and by a pretty wide margin, to boot.

patrick127 (Replying to: randy_khan)

An article written at 4 pm may have been a bit premature. I am sure that if you ran an estimate of the crowd gathered at 4pm for Obama's election night party and admitted that your math "assumes the lowest possible numbers" you would come up with a completely different number that in no way represented the actual number of people who attended Obama's rally.

Now groups of angry (yet peaceful in their demonstration) tax-payers, who believe in individualism and individual's rights usually are pre-occupied between the hours of 8-5 each weekday. Only 17 cities are included in this "math". In the essence of journalistic integrity how about an estimate on 4/16 that includes all sites and doesn't automatically assume the lowest possible estimates.

drew (Replying to: randy_khan)

So, high numbers makes an issue legitmate, and low numbers, what, makes an issue socio-politically irrelevant? By that standard, childhood drowning deaths are really not relevant to people because hey, there really aren't that many interested in it anyway. I don't understand this line of thinking, perhaps I am missing the point, but it smells like group-think to me. Raising the issue of tax reform is important for individuals, and I don't care about the rally numbers. Who cares if one grandma, or 2 million conservatives or liberals are a part of it, the issue is that there needs to be comprehensive tax reform (unless you're an official or accountant) and the reform must equitable. Let's not discount the core-issue based on second-hand accounts of attendance.

This is some seriously dangerous stuff. Fox News has crossed a line I didn't know existed:
http://gotchamedia.blogspot.com/2009/04/fox-reporter-wants-you-to-fight-fascism.html

I doubt it was 30,000 nationally. As a comparable during election Obama got over 100,000 on one night during a rainstorm in Manassas. The wider issue surely is that these events are supposed to convey a sense of strength and purpose. Can we really say these pitiful numbers with bizarre sign about jews and gas chambers, the second amendment to deal with politicians, and the various whackoes giving interviews left that impression. The impression was weirdness and marginality. Obama, Rahm and the gang must be enjoying the end of day beer tonight.

what's listed here is a very small portion of the number of events held across the country. There were probably 10,000 in Texas alone.

And, as a comparable, Obama only got 53% of the popular vote.

stan (Replying to: tessa)

"only 53%" the last time checked Bush did worst.

Elrod (Replying to: tessa)

And Obama's approval rating has hovered around 60% for months now. Support for his economic policy is even higher. These tea party doofuses are marginalized hodge-podge of bitter losers.

rasputin (Replying to: tessa)

The sad reality is, despite 24/7 promotion, coverage of and direct involvement by Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, Michael Savage, Michelle Malkin et al, the showing was singularly unimpressive.

Look at the site of the original, genuine tea party: 500 in Boston.

And the birthplace of the Constitution: 300 in Philadelphia.

So much for a mass movement.

OGLiberal (Replying to: tessa)

Tessa:

Let's take Nate Silver's estimate of 250,000 and pad it by 50,000 - and that's probably being kind - making the total 300,000. That would represent .1% of the total US population. .01%. That's a lot less than 69.5M votes (about 9.5M more than McCain) that Obama received just a bit over 5 months ago. But I guess these numbers don't matter since Obama "only" received 53% of the vote. (the largest percentage of the popular vote received by a candidate since the 1984 election)

Nate Silver is estimating around 250,000 total. He's usually pretty good with numbers.

nate silver estimates 111.0 total throughout the country and yup he is really good with numbers

Dave Ritchie (Replying to: awb)

306,225,362 / 111,000 = 306225 / 111 = 1 in 2759 approximately. Must be a mandate.

Fictional News Network is having a real impact, aren't they?

Wow. If only they had enough people for a "focus group", they might have come close to having enough people to start a protest against the Iraq War.

Note to righties: Protesting is easier when you have an actual point to make.

redwhiteandblue

I urge everyone with your negative comments and funny math to pull your heads out of your A** and do a little research. stopthespending.org is a good start. If you open your minds and look at the FACTS instead of drink the coolaid I think you will all be a little shocked by what is going on in this country. I guarantee if you turn off NBC and CNN and use your own brain for a change not only will you understand it you will join it.

Everyone on this site can't get past the RED vs BLUE, LEFT vs RIGHT. It's about right vs wrong. This is just the begining, you can join the 2nd Revolution or you can get rolled over by it! Your choice

OGLiberal (Replying to: redwhiteandblue)

"I guarantee if you turn off NBC and CNN and use your own brain for a change not only will you understand it you will join it."

Only if you promise to turn off FoxNews and Limbaugh.

"This is just the begining, you can join the 2nd Revolution or you can get rolled over by it! Your choice."

I'm shaking in my shoes. Please point your musket away from my head.

Sorry, redwhiteandblue, just because you like the teabaggers doesn't mean they're right. And the fact that I disagree with them (and you) doesn't mean I have my head up my A** (stay classy, redwhiteandblue!). It means I disagree with you, which last time I looked was still constitutional.