Assuming Al Franken is seated in the U.S. Senate, the Democratic Party will now have what it coveted and failed to attain in the 2008 election: a 60-seat supermajority in the upper chamber, and the ability to pass legislation without a single Republican vote, unfettered by filibusters and free to put its consensus directly on President Obama's desk.
Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) has given them that opportunity today, switching parties after realizing, as he put it, that his vote in favor of the stimulus package caused a schism that made his differences with the GOP "irreconcilable," as he said in a statement announcing his break.
But it likely won't mean a simple, across-the-board approval of the Democratic wish list. In fact, it may not change much when it comes to some major pieces of legislation.
Specter has always gone his own way, and his statement today
highlights that independent streak: "While I have been comfortable
being a Republican, my Party has not defined who I am. I have taken
each issue one at a time and have exercised independent judgment to do
what I thought was best for Pennsylvania and the nation," Specter said.
Indeed,
as one of the critical votes on Obama's stimulus, Specter joined forces
with fellow moderates Susan Collins (R-ME), Olympia Snowe (R-ME), and
Ben Nelson (D-NE) to negotiate a smaller package with more tax cuts,
eventually lowering the pricetag to $787 billion from a mark that, at
one time, approached $900 billion.
Similarly, as organized labor
turned its eyes to Specter as the key vote on the Employee Free Choice
Act--its highest-priority bill in decades--Specter offered a floor
speech in which he rejected ideological allegiances both to labor and
his own party, declaring his intellectual independence and, instead of
saying "yes" or "no" to the bill, laid out his own version of labor law
reform, essentially mandating his own language as a compromise. Specter
opposes the bill as it is written and said in his statement that his
stance will not change.
Now that he's a Democrat, things might
look much the same. While he has a new party label, he's not that into
party labels. And while he'll eat lunch with the Democrats every
Tuesday, across the hall from his old party colleagues, he still
represents a moderate faction of senators that will form the crux of
many legislative negotiations in the upper chamber--signifying a
critical vote with enormous power over what language the Senate passes
in major policy initiatives.
Simply being around Democrats and
their ideas, talking to them instead of Republicans on a daily basis,
could influence his thinking. But if we are to take Sen. Specter at his
word, he may prove both as troublesome--and, alternately, as
friendly--to both parties as he was yesterday.







He may be independent, but he's also very wary of his own political future. His biggest obstacle to re-election is now a Democratic primary opponent, not a Republican. As such, he may find that EFCA makes more political sense to support so as to fend off a pro-labor Democratic challenger.
It means nothing. Give 'em Hell Harry can't even keep his own caucus on the reservation much less a guy who's been a Dem for 10 mins over the last 40 years.
Will be interesting to see what happens in PA politics. A true independent, as Specter really is, may not sit well with the intense labor factions of the state. Perhaps it is a desperate attempt to avoid the inevitable....that his time in public life is quickly waning.
Specter is going to have to watch his votes for the next year because you can bet a large part of the Democratic party will be. Whatever Rendell and the Democratic establishment may think if he ticks off the party mainstream he's going to find Admiral Joe Sestak looming up on his left. Personally, I think Spector will basically embrace his new role. It's been obvious he's uncomfortable in today's GOP for years and in the collegial senate atmosphere it won't be hard for him to move left of center.