Gallup has inundated us with the news this morning that more Americans now call themselves pro-life than pro-choice, according to its latest poll, by a margin of 51 percent to 52 percent, a drastic shift from the last time Gallup posed the question and the first time since 1995 that a majority of Gallup respondents have self-identified as pro-life.
But it may not be accurate to say that "America is now pro-life"--after all, a CNN/Opinion research poll released in late April showed pro-choice winning out over pro-life 49 percent to 45 percent. That poll had a larger pool of respondents (2,019) than Gallup's (1,015). (See more polling on abortion at Pollingreport.com.)
So what does the Gallup poll show us?
First of all, it's important to look beyond the self-identification of
"pro-life" and "pro-choice." The abortion debate in America is about
policy, not about those words--they do not encapsulate, for instance,
whether a majority want abortion to be legal for pregnant women whose
lives is threatened by the pregnancy in the third trimester. Some
people who call themselves "pro-life" might say abortion should be
legal in that case.
(Some newspapers don't use the term's "pro-life" and "pro-choice" at
all, as a matter of style--they were coined by activists and are
intended, for marketing purposes, to have loaded connotations.)
So a more relevant question for abortion policy might be another
question Gallup asked--how often abortions should be legal: always,
never, or "under certain circumstances."
The majority of Americans reside in the middle category here--that
abortion should be legal "under certain circumstances." 53 percent hold
that view, and that has remained relatively constant according to
Gallup's numbers. Most of the shift has occurred among the two minority
views, with a rise in "never" and a drop in "always" responses.
Breaking down the middle numbers further, Gallup actually found a shift
to the left from last year. Most people in the middle believe abortion
should be legal "only in a few circumstances," while relatively few
believe it should be legal "under most circumstances"--but that has
shifted a bit, with "few circumstances" dropping three percentage
points and "most circumstances" picking up two. The breakdown is now 37
percent to 15 percent in favor of "only in a few circumstances."
Other polls have shown answers further to the left: with different
wording, an April Quinnipiac poll found "usually legal" beating
"usually illegal" 37 percent to 27 percent; a September NBC/Wall Street
Journal poll found "illegal with a few exceptions" winning out over
"legal most of the time" 37 percent to 24 percent.
Gallup's poll is just one poll, and it seems to indicate more of a
shift among the fringes than in the mainstream, where the nuances of
the debate take place.
Such a sharp increase in "pro-life" identification certainly is
something, and Gallup is a reputable firm that has been polling on this
issue for a long time, but it does not answer the central question
about public opinion and abortion policy, which is: how does the
legislation supported by Obama and pro-choice groups, the Freedom of
Choice Act, sit with the American public?
That bill says abortions are legal prior to fetal viability, and only
legal after fetal viability if the woman's life is in danger.
Gallup, in its analysis, suggests Americans are backing away from the
"pro-choice" label in response to that legislation. That may be
true--or it may not be. Gallup's questions do not get more specific
than "most circumstances" and "only a few."
The way this article describes the Freedom of Choice Act (legal prior to fetal viability, and only legal after fetal viability if the woman's life is in danger) sounds like a reasonable compromise to me.
I wish that every time a poll was quoted, we could get the exact text of the poll and the demographics and raw numbers of those polled - it can make all the difference. Having said/fumed about that, only about 1 in 5 wants a total ban. The majority of Americans remain conflicted in that they answer "sometimes." I really don't think that this issue is like any other in the realm of public policy.
Pro-Life means just that. Preferring life. As pointed out, it doesn't necessarily mean that they are opposed to abortion. It also doesn't mean that they want to promote abortion. It may mean that they don't want to go back to the way things were in the 1960s and before when abortions were performed in back alleys by unqualified people. It also may mean that they don't want to go back to the age of overcrowed and underfunded orphanages that many people seem to have forgotten. So called Pro-Lifers would do better to embrace the Obama Adminstration from the point of trying to join together to foster adoptions and provide non-judgemental couseling. We understand that Abortion may not be for you, that doesn't mean we are for the complete banning of abortion as you may want to spin things.
I doubt many Americans have even heard of the Freedom of Choice Act legislation. Committed activists, whose views have not likely changed, have heard of it. But most Americans have not.
My guess is that this was a bad sample. There is no way public opinion on this - even on the wording of this - has changed that dramatically that quickly.
You bring up a lot of good points. There are a couple of thing I want to add.
You said that there were more people believing that abortion should never be legal and fewer saying it should be legal, and then point out that the middle group has actually moved to the left. I think this still suggests a pro-life move in the country (in as far as the poll is accurate). It’s unlikely that very many moved straight from always be legal to never be legal. That means (again so far as the poll is accurate) that the middle group probably moved to the left because some on the right moved further to the right and some of those who thought abortion should always be legal moved to believing it should sometimes be legal. This likely pushed the middle group to the left, but is still an indication that the country itself is moving to the right a bit on this issue. You’re absolutely right that the majority of the population is somewhere in the middle though, and wording on polls matters a ton. Simply having a majority call themselves pro-life or pro-choice only reveals so much.
The Freedom of Choice Act is a lot more than you make it out to be. It takes more power away a lot more power from the states in limiting abortions (potentially requiring public hospital to perform them). There are major concerns that the bill will force taxpayers to fund abortions (which to many pro-lifers would feel like supporting genocide) and require hospitals (even Catholic ones) to perform abortions. Some of this depends on interpretation afterwards, but if the Constitution can be found to require states to allow abortions (a awfully big stretch), it wouldn’t take much at all for this law to be interpreted in a way that forces abortion services. I expect it would be (if not right away than within a couple of years).
EVVJSK:
Most understand pro-life to be at least generally against abortions (although not necessarily in all cases). That doesn’t mean that everyone who uses the term thinks that way, but it can just as easily be turned around to say that maybe not everyone who calls themselves pro-choice is in favor of completely denying the unborn their rights. Maybe they want a society where everyone is given their right to make choices and not denied that by an abortion.
I understand you disagree, but from the pro-life standpoint what you are advocating is that we accept the killing of innocent children so long as we don’t do it ourselves. I understand that you don’t accept that as what is happening, but from my perspective not standing up for the unborn because my child isn’t going to be aborted would be no different than me not standing up against slavery because I don’t own slaves.
Also, any orphanages like you describe are unlikely to return any time soon. The waiting list for adoption of babies is extremely long and it takes years to go through. Some back-alley abortion would return, but supporters in the 70s admitted they exagerated the cases. Additionally, the number of mothers dying from abortions might not increase that much because of fewer abortions in the first place (there are deaths of mothers from legal abortions too) and a general decreasing trend in deaths of mothers even before abortions started to be legalized.
I haven't read the legislation, but fetal viability seems vague; does it mean the lowest fetal viability recorded, average viability according to weight, gestational age, etc,? And EVVJSK, i agreed with just about everything you said, except for the spinning things part. Whom are you addressing with that comment?