President Obama's approval ratings are higher than those of Presidents Bill Clinton, George H.W. Bush, and George W. Bush in may of their first terms, according to a report released today by Gallup:
As the graph shows, Obama is on par with Carter, and since WWII only Reagan, Kennedy, and Eisenhower enjoyed higher ratings four months into their presidencies. Clinton was the only president to have an approval rating below 50 percent.
So, with this in mind, here are a few questions associated with President Obama's approval rating these days, and how this study relates to them:
1. When will the economy start hurting Obama? None of the presidents in our recent past have confronted an economic crisis of this magnitude right out of the box, with unemployment still on the rise. Unemployment was around 8 percent when Carter took office, and then continued to rise (up to 9 percent--around where it is now), but peaked early that year and declined for the rest of 1975. Carter remained popular despite the early rise, and then things started to turn around. (Clinton, meanwhile, encountered a recession at the outset of his term, but unemployment was already dropping when he came into office.) Obama may not need a turnaround right now, but it's unclear what will happen to his approval if the economy continues to lag for a long time.
2. Does Obama's election signify a political sea change? Analysts have likened Obama's '08 victory and massive popularity to Ronald Reagan's--saying Obama has ushered in an era of Democratic dominance akin to what Reagan did for the GOP. Given the relatively low ratings of presidents since Reagan, Gallup's data seem to support that--but we have to remember, it's only May of his first term.
3. When will the "honeymoon" end? If anything, the data remind us that new presidents are usually popular in their first few months in office. Aside from Clinton, George H.W. Bush's 55 percent--a solid rating--was the lowest of those studied by Gallup. While conservatives talk about Obama's honeymoon, his is on par with presidents in our recent past.
I think he would have topped Reagan as well had not outside forces affected Ron's approval ratings. Reagan started out slightly lower than Obama and didn't get a real bump until the assasination attempt. Our country - many countries, in fact - rallies behind the leader in situations like that. (or in the case of war or other tragedy for which the president/administration appears to share no blame - Katrina being an example of where the president is perceived to share the blame) That's not to say that Reagan wasn't a popular president, although he wasn't nearly as popular as his biggest fans would have us believe. (His average approval rating for his entire presidency was 52%, which puts him well behind Kennedy and Ike but also behind GHWB, Clinton, and LBJ.) But the assasination attempt certainly gave him a few extra approval points. (I believe he peaked at about 68-70% after Hinkley tried to kill him.)
A word of warning to Obama, though. Even with the sympathy from the assasination attempt, Reagan was at 49% approval by the end of his first year in office, mostly due to economic concerns.
This obsession with polling seems a bit silly. Obama is a new President with both house of congress in his pocket. This is his baby to win or lose.
November 2010 is a far way off, and November 2012 is even farther. If GM turns out to be a money pit, if Inflation soars to 7-8-9%, if some ex-Gitmo resident blows up a plane..... It won't take much.
Approval ratings at this early stage does not mean much and data without contest is meaningless. Obama's rating equals Carters'at the same period in Carter's presidency whereas Bush Sr. had higher approval rating than W.Bush and, Clinton had the lowest amongst them. Now, W. Bush and Clinton were reelected to a second term as Bush Sr. and Carter went down in flames. Moreover, Clinton ended his second term at 66%, the highest rating of any president since World War II as W. Bush ended his presidency with one of lowest rating. Putting things in perspective is really easy. Awww! I hate intellectual laziness.