A new Susquehanna poll shows former Gov. and Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge (R) beating newly Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter in a general-election matchup, reinforcing Quinnipiac's finding that Ridge would have a better shot at winning the seat for the GOP than would the more conservative Pat Toomey, whose gigantic primary lead over Specter, some say, forced the Senate veteran out of the GOP's ranks.
Quinnipiac found that Specter would beat Ridge 46-43 percent; Susquehanna has Ridge up 39-38 percent. Of course, these numbers could shift significantly between now and 2010.
Perhaps a more relevant question is how Ridge would fare against Toomey in a primary matchup, and no one appears to have measured that. Ridge will have to beat Toomey for us to see a Ridge vs. Specter general election. (Though, presumably, Ridge's advantage in general election viability could help him gain votes in a GOP primary.)
The Ridge vs. Toomey scenario would allow us to learn something about
Pennsylvania Republicans. When Arlen Specter decided to become a
Democrat, he said the Republican primary electorate in PA had shifted,
becoming more conservative. That take seems to be supported by the fact
that Specter one day trailed Toomey by a vast margin in support among
Pennsylvania Republicans, and the next he led Toomey by a vast margin
among all voters in the state: Republicans's strong preference for
Toomey's conservatism was proven to be out of line with what
Pennsylvania thinks as a whole.
Hearing Specter talk about Pennsylvania GOP primary voters (and reading about how they jeered
him for voting "yes" on the stimulus) makes Republicans in the state
seem, indeed, far from the center. Their choice between Toomey and
Ridge might give us a window into what value they place on general
election viability, how they relate to a more moderate Republican, what
they think of abortion--Ridge has said he is pro choice--and whether
they are, as some would portray them, hard-core ideologues.
Insofar as Specter's switch tells us anything about the national GOP,
those questions about Pennsylvania's GOP base are nationally
significant as well.
When you say jeering of GOP primary voters on Specter's vote for the stimulus makes the Republicans in the state seem for from center, what exactly do you mean? I would agree if they had jeered him for casting a vote on a moderate bill with bipartisan support, but I'm not sure disapproval of the fact that his vote as one of (I believe) 3 total Republicans for a very partisan, pork filled bill should cast the Pennsylvania GOP primary voters as far from the center, especially considering that they've kept a fairly centrist Specter in office for decades.
I think your point on the choice between Toomey and Ridge in light of their respective stance on abortion is an important one, and is overlooked in terms of the recent national election (as far as I know). I realize personal experience does not translate to national trends, but in many political discussions in which I engaged leading up to and just after the Presidential election, a lot of people were voting for one candidate on the other based on single important issues, mostly including gay rights/marriage, abortion, and prisoner rights/torture (especially in Guantanamo). I have seen a lot of the data about the order of importance for Americans in voting in the last election, but I would be curious about the numbers regarding single issue voting and which party it favors. I think one of the best chances for the Republican party to regain numbers would be to neutralize some of these issues by taking a more moderate stance in certain areas, especially civil unions for homosexuals. Then they can focus on reemphasizing small government, especially in terms of balancing the budget and decreasing the deficit, a clear contrast to the current Obama/Democratic plan.