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May 11 2009, 9:19 am by Marc Ambinder

Saberi's Free: Are U.S.-Iranian Relations Truly Thawing?

The news that greeted friends of journalist Roxana Saberi this morning was better than they hoped: not only was the case against her suspended by Iranian judges, the Iranian government has decided to free her immediately.  Iran watchers will be making one of two cases today: that the freeing suggests nothing at all about Iran's intentions toward the West; Iran's government wants to demonstrate to Europe (in particular) that it is capable of acting in good faith.  The other is that Iranian-United States relations have come a long way since 1/20, and even in the wake of saber rattling, the presidency of Barack Obama has so flummoxed the Iranian leadership that they have no choice to vary their routine.  I don't know which interpretation is correct, I would add, as a point of information, that Iran's government is not monolithic; that the bureaucracy and many judges consider themselves independent of the executive branch and the mullahs. So maybe the release is a mixture of Iranian justice at work, to the extent that it sometimes comports with Western standards, as well as at attempt at over-the-Gulf cosmetology. Seven journalists are still being held in Iranian prisons. Saberi, a friend of many Western governments and journalists throughout the region (Persian, Arab, European, American) may have been a special case.

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Comments (5)

msully

Personally, I think the whole situation was trumped up specifically so Iran could look magnanimous in freeing Saberi.

ian

Another interpretation: it was a test, and we failed.

You want to take the measure of a new administration, you grab someone on some trumped up charge (someone noone will actually start a war over). It helps if that someone will get a bit of attention - like a journalist. You wait and see what the US does about it - do we send in the marines? do we condemn it (in the strongest possible terms)? Do we run to the UN security council? Do we try to negotiate with them through back channels? Do we pay ransom? Once you have that figured out, you release the person and appear magnanimous. Hey no harm, no foul! It was all a big misunderstanding!

Isn't it all pretty obvious? Face it - they're not stupid.

Ilya Lozovsky (Replying to: ian)

As Marc pointed out, Iran is not a monolithic entity and I haven't seen any evidence that her arrest was directly ordered by a very high-up authority, though of course I wouldn't rule that out.

In any event, she seems to have been let go with no American concessions. Maybe it's a response to pressure on Iran to respond to Obama's overtures.

How exactly did we "fail" the test, then?

ian

"I haven't seen any evidence that her arrest was directly ordered by a very high-up authority, though of course I wouldn't rule that out."

On the other hand, if these higher up authorities had ordered her released, don't you think she might have come home sooner? They have a lunatic for a president who constantly makes inflammatory remarks, but serves as a lightning rod for a group of religious leaders who are the real rulers. This ambiguity is by design and serves them well.

"How exactly did we "fail" the test, then?"

Easy - one of our citizens was taken and we didn't do a thing. What would you call that? A success? What's more, it sows further confusion in the west - did dialog work? was it Obamas 'new tone'? was it magnanimity on their part? We'll never know - and thats the point.


crimfan (Replying to: ian)

@ian:

What if "doing something," e.g., parking a CBG offshore or otherwise more reciprocal saber rattling, was EXACTLY what the hard liners wanted? Instead Obama had them take a time out (in an applied behavior therapy sense). Perhaps they realized that there wasn't much point to continuing to hold her prisoner and more benefit for looking magnanimous. The fact that the Iranian regime is far from monolithic is important. But one thing for sure will unite the factions: US strongarm tactics. I don't think Americans understand the depth of historical grievance towards the US (and Britain) for things like the 1953 coup.

We also don't know what back room channels were being worked, either, but there's one sure way to make even secret negotiations come to a screeching halt: A show of force.