Arlen Specter didn't just rescue his own re-election bid by switching to the Democratic Party last week: he may have pulled the rug out from GOP rival Pat Toomey and cleared the way for Tom Ridge, the former governor and America's first Department of Homeland Security secretary, to secure the Republican nomination in Pennsylvania's 2010 Senate race.
According to a new Quinnipiac University poll, Specter the Democrat leads Republican Toomey 53-33 percent in a general election matchup. Ridge, however, trails Specter by just 46-43 percent. Until Specter dropped, Ridge's name wasn't being mentioned in the crowded primary, at least as far as I knew...
Toomey made it impossible for Specter to win re-election as a
Republican, smashing him in GOP primary polls and accusing him of being
too liberal. There's a lot of time for Toomey to campaign and
potentially change these numbers, but if Pennsylvania Republicans value
general-election viability over the economic conservatism Toomey
offers, things may be tougher for both Specter and Toomey.
"Crowded primary"? In the sense of "two's a crowd"? What other significant opposition was Specter facing, besides Toomey?
I'm not trying to be impertinent, just curious. I've followed the PA Sen. primary only with the casual interest of a DC political observer, but I hadn't heard that Specter was drawing primary challengers of note other than Toomey.
Ridge was mentioned as a susbstitute for the GOP just a day after Specter's switch--but as many pointed out, there is plenty of polling on Ridge, a pro-abortion moderate GOPer that shows he'd have trouble winning a PA primary also.
In fact, in the last month one of McCain's advisors confirmed at a conference Ridge wasn't even seriously considered because of a marker laid down by anti-abortion groups.
OK, I know everyone has his or her rhetorical tropes, BUT can't we please remember that "pro-choice" does not mean "pro-abortion"? I am completely in favor of a woman's right to choose freely whether to carry a pregnancy to term, but that most assuredly does not mean that I am picketing OB/GYN offices begging for the patients to have abortions. I like my kids--I'm glad my wife didn't terminate. I like other people's kids (well, many of them). I'm not pro-abortion, Barack Obama isn't pro-abortion, and I sincerely doubt that Tom Ridge (detestable as I may find him in many ways) is pro-abortion.
Now that I've settled that for all time, if we could just get Republicans to call us the Democratic Party...
As HatchAx noted, it's not even clear that Ridge could defeat Toomey in the primary. Ideologically, he's not much different than Specter. (see, again, HatchAx'x comments re: McCain's veep selection) The only difference is that he - Ridge - didn't vote on the stimulus package because he wasn't in government at the time. Specter almost lost to Toomey in the 2004 primary and the GOP in PA is smaller and wingnuttier these days, which is why Specter didn't stand a chance against Toomey. The only way I see Ridge entering the race is if Toomey gives up his candidacy. And I don't see that happening. The Democrats will probably be at or above 60 votes in the Senate after the 2010 elections even without Specter's seat - given this, why would Toomey wimp out to the GOP establishment's for him to leave the race to try to protect the seat. And this would be the same establishment that just recently made it clear that Specter was no longer welcome in the party. Plus, Ridge as the GOP candidate, while certainly standing a much better chance than Toomey in the general election, is not a sure thing, not against Specter and maybe not even against Sestak. Toomey, of course, would lose to either Specter or Sestak - or just about any other Dem candidate - by a wide margin.
My guess is that we won't see Ridge in this race, regardless of how good the polls look for him.
@DRW
You have it wrong. If you support a woman's right to choose, you aren't pro-abortion, you are pro-death. Actually, you are a baby killer. And you probably have sex with goats as well.
"Now that I've settled that for all time, if we could just get Republicans to call us the Democratic Party..."
Haven't you heard? They're already planning on ditching the "Democrat Party" labeling. They're going back to "Democratic", only it's going to be the "Democratic Socialist Party". See how much they've matured?