It used to be fashionable, in some places, to say, "I'm socially liberal, but fiscally conservative." That was the case among some people I knew growing up in the Midwest, and some people I went to college with in the early 2000s. It was a good way to be moderate--to communicate social open-mindedness and shrewd economics, simultaneously. And it was good for young people, with liberal social views and a skepticism of government's reach.
But as Derek points out,
the Millenial generation is allegedly quite liberal on the economic
side. This is certainly something economic liberals want us to think,
as the GOP blasts President Obama's stimulus and budget, looking for
electoral gains. The economic liberals want to say that young people
are immune to all that--but are they right?
According to a Gerstein Agne poll
conducted for the Center for American Progress (CAP) and released yesterday, they are--mostly.
60 percent of 18-29
year olds agree that "It's time for government to take a larger and
stronger role in making the economy work for the average American," according to that survey; 27 percent agree that "Turning to big government to solve our economic problems will do more harm than good"; 13 percent said "both." The poll includes results from targeted online samples (people recruited on demographic basis to complete a survey online) and phone surveys on both land lines and cell phones.
(The bar graph in Ruy Texeira's CAP blog post was mis-labeled with results from a different question, asked by the 2008 National Election Studies--so it's not actually a 78/22 split. Texeira has since corrected it.)
So that's a solid majority, 60-27, but it's not unanimous. And given the way Gerstein Agne worded its question, who doesn't think government should work hard to make the economy work for everyone?
Liberals are excited about gains they've made among the Millenial generation--some predicting that these gains will cement a majority as more and more Millenials vote and as the generation plays a larger role in national elections. Gallup released a report today parsing GOP losses in party identification since 2001, and one of its largest demographic losses came among 18-29 year olds, who have gone from 41 percent Republican to 32 percent (including independents who "lean" Republican), according to Gallup's numbers.
A big part of the Republican message is that Obama has taken the country "to the left farther and faster than I think anyone could have imagined," as RNC Chairman Michael Steele put it in an op-ed published in Politico. When he says this, he's referring to Obama's budget and stimulus.
What folks like those at CAP are hoping is that this message won't resonate with youth--who, they say, are immune to charges that "big government" and "Obama's massive spending" are disastrous.
So far, it appears they're right--it's just not a complete landslide. An April 1 Quinnipiac poll showed Obama's approval rating on the economy at 62 percent among 18-29 year olds (31 percent disapproved)--that's a pretty good majority as well.
It's almost universally agreed upon that it's too early to judge Obama's economic policies. In a few years, young people might be more receptive to what Steele and others are saying about Obama's policies--and the GOP may be laying the groundwork for an "I told you so."
For now, it looks like young people aren't buying the GOP's budget/stimulus arguments--but, then again, Obama's approval ratings are high across the board, and everyone knows that could change in a few years--we just don't know.
Republicans may have trouble winning young voters back with economic conservatism, for the time being. But Republicans are having trouble winning anyone at this point, and no one knows what young people will think about the economy in two years.
You are suggesting that GOP are fiscally conservative which from the 3 past GOP Presidents is an laughable. The GOP is a party of reducing taxes and increasing defense spending and servicing the rich and the establishment. That should never be confused with fiscal conservatives.
In the last 15 years the only country in the Group of 7 that has been fiscally conservative is Canada. They have paid down national debt for the last 15 years with the exception of 2009 where they will run a deficit of 28 billion $. Compared to our looming deficit a pittance.
Yes they pay higher taxes but they get much more for the tax dollar than we do. Universal medical insurance, fully funded pensions, excellent public school system, less crime, less % of abortions even though legal and easy to access, less issues state versus religion ( gay marriage ).
But what is striking is that the Canadian Banks are the Worlds strongest with the 5 major banks in the top 12 in the world. The Canadian government not having to bail out any financial institutions.
A Republican would label Canada as a socialist country and in some ways its true. But sometimes a capable government can run the economy smoothly by setting realistic ratios for banks and financial institutions and to negotiate with drug companies fair mark-ups. To set standards for public schools Canada rated 3rd in world after Japan and Korea with a diverse society like the USA. Health care takes less than 10% of the GDP with everyone covered versus us 16% and rising. Even in the housing the Canadians will build 150,000 new houses in 2009 compared to best estimates in the USA of 400,000.
Financial conservatism and government with liberal social issues do work. The Republican trickle down and let the private sector run wild doesn't.
Cam
If the economy is on the mend by the spring of 2010, the jobs market has stabilized, universal healthcare is available, and national morale has recovered, I can tell you exactly what what young people will young people will be thinking about the economy. They will be giving all the credit to Obama and the democrats. All the campaign ads in the fall of 2010 are going star those Republicans who have voted against the stimulus, the budget and healthcare. You can bank on it. Essentially Good's piece is a slightly more sophisticated version of the we hope he fails because that's how we regain power mantra. I wouldn't bet the ranch on Obama's failure. On the wider philosophical issue of generational, geographic and ethnic demographic shifts in voting patterns this is the elephant in the room for the GOP. Much more important than Steele or Palin's latest buffoonery.