Comments for Hezbollah's Defeat: A Victory For Obama?

Hezbollah's Defeat: A Victory For Obama?

2009-06-08T14:14:36Z

As President Obama delivered his address to the Muslim world in Cairo last week, two pivotal Middle East elections loomed in Lebanon and Iran. The timing of Obama's speech was impeccable, from that standpoint, several days before Lebanon's (held over the weekend), and roughly a week before Iran's (to be held Friday), in which Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will seek to retain power against rivals that have criticized his foreign policy and handling of the country's nuclear program.

The Iranian election is perhaps more important for the U.S.: Iran is seen as the leader of an axis in Middle East politics, holding influence over its Syrian and Hezbollah allies. Iran's nuclear program is a growing worry both for Israel and many Arab states--it's a major issue in Middle East foreign policy.

The results from Lebanon's parliamentary election are in: the U.S.-backed March 14 coalition retained power over Hezbollah.

It's unclear whether Obama's speech had anything to do with it, but a Hezbollah victory would not only be eyed warily by Israel; it could be seen as a good thing for Ahmadinejad, with another anti-Israel, anti-U.S. regime prevailing.

The White House has been careful not to engage Ahmadinejad since taking power--despite Obama's campaign suggestion of more open relations with U.S. opponents--most likely because it doesn't want to legitimize Ahmadinejad before the election, in the hopes that he might lose, and that a friendlier president might take his place.

Obama's video message to the Iranian people was seen as an attempt to circumvent engagement with Iran's government--speaking directly to an electorate that could reject Ahmadinejad in June.

Today, the results of Lebanon's election may or may not be a referendum on relations with the West, with Israel, and the foreign policy ideals held by Obama. But they're definitely good news for the White House, and if there's anything to be gleaned about momentum in Shiite politics, it's moving in a direction that Obama probably likes far better than the alternative.

Comment from John Thacker on 2009-06-08

2009-06-08T14:45:10Z

Undoubtedly it's good for Obama and the United States, but it's hard to say how much Obama had a role with it. After all, Lebanon is one of the few Middle East countries where the US approval rating actually dropped somewhat after Obama's election. Still, good news.

Comment from John Thacker on 2009-06-08

2009-06-08T14:46:40Z

"anything to be gleaned about momentum in Shiite politics, it's moving in a direction that Obama probably likes far better than the alternative."

Huh? Shiite politics? The Shiites in Lebanon voted against the winning group, overwhelmingly. Our allies in Lebanon are supported by the Sunnis, the Druze, and most of the Christians in Lebanon, not the Shiites.

Which is a big change from the '80s, when the Shiites welcomed the Israelis because they disliked the occupying PLO even more.

Comment from slag on 2009-06-08

2009-06-08T15:02:05Z

Obama probably shouldn't be getting any credit for the result of this election, but it's safe to assume he'd be getting some of the blame had it gone the other way. That's just how we roll these days.

Comment from ziaded on 2009-06-13

2009-06-13T10:37:46Z

As a Christian Lebanese who is active politically, I would like to clear out some mistakes the writer of this article and the people who commented have made. First, of all the iranian nuclear issue is a threat because the United States Foreign Policy Council has realized that its profitable and marketable to be labeled as a threat to the Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, etc ...) the US scares the Gulf with the Iranian issue and sells them billions and billions of dollars worth of weapons and technology that wont be used. Second, the majority of the christians in Lebanon are with the opposition which is not only made up of Hezbullah but of Amal (another shite bloc headed by the speaker of parliament Nabih Berri) the Free Patriotic Movement (the largest christian bloc in parliment, headed by Michel Aoun an ex president of Lebanon that was kicked out of the country for opposing US backed Syrian troop deployment) and a number of other smaller bloc such as the SSNP, Tashnag, etc ... , Finally, the Lebanese have learnt from history and personal experience that none of the world's super powers are to be trusted because a small country like Lebanon would only be used as a playing field for their dirty foreign policies be it iran or the united states. So Obama, or whoever can sugarcoat his speeches all he wants but the reality is the United States will never ever give Lebanon its full recognition and push for its rights (the occupied Chebaa Farms, daily Israeli jets flying into our airspace, and israeli navy boats entering out domestic waters, and the list goes on and on)