Politics with Marc Ambinder

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Jun 25 2009, 2:04 pm

What Mitt Romney's Doing Right

John Ensign and Mark Sanford are revealing TMI. Sarah Palin is struggling with her state legislature. John Huntsman, Jr. is headed to China. Mike Huckabee is ubiquitous.  Haley Barbour is meeting with strategists in smoky back rooms. Tim Pawlenty has to get through the rest of his term.

And Mitt Romney?

Mitt Romney is writing a book. His final draft is due to a publisher by the end of July, and it will hit bookshelves in 2010, right at the time the Republican Party will be settling on a communications strategy for the midterm elections.

Romney and his team are clear about his political future. The door to another presidential race is open, but that would be true regardless of how Romney spends his days. It adds nothing to ask whether Romney will run for president.

The prevailing narrative today is that Romney has risen to the top of the 2012 Invisible Primary because he's the last man standing.

True, Romney hasn't made any obvious mistakes. But his rising standing is a consequence of decisions he's made, and not just a result of the luck.

  1. Romney is picking and choosing his battles. He shares an Obama-esque disdain for the superficial daily scrum that cable channels whip up. It's a credit to his communications team that he can appear on television once every two or three weeks and seem to be part of the dialog. When Romney has something to say, he'll find a venue to say it.  On auto restructuring, on the Republican stimulus plan, on a free market approach to health care, on the Employee Free Choice Act, and on missile defense, Romney matches his opinions to key constituencies, and he always draws respectful news coverage.  What's Romney saying about Mark Sanford? Nothing. (Mike Huckabee called into Fox. He's pursuing a different communications strategy.)
  1. He's not consumed by anger or sarcasm.  Romney can get angry, and he can be sarcastic. But his public appearances today are calm, measured; his interviews are given in dignified settings. Romney's political team believes that the public has no appetite for presidential adversaries who are driven by personal dislike.  To Romney, this dignifies the office of the presidency.
  1. He's not frantic about the invisible primary.  Obviously, Romney has a base of staff, donors and supporters, and he doesn't need to panic about grabbing strategists and consultants who might defect from other potential candidates. He keeps in touch with key supporters in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and the other early states, but his travel schedule is not burdened by a need to concentrate his time and resources  on rebuilding lists, raising money and rebuilding his reputation.
  1. Pew finds that Romney's fav/unfav ratio is pretty darned good. The same guy who was pegged as a flip-flopper, as a fake (or too real) social conservative, as a guy who said what people wanted to hear... is relatively popular.  Plenty of time has passed, and a very distracting election probably helped.  But Romney did himself many favors as the 2008 presidential campaign wound down. He got out of the race at the right moment, letting arch-enemy Mike Huckabee try and rally the right against John McCain. He became the establishment frontrunner to be McCain's vice presidential selection, and when McCain didn't pick him, he became the '08 ticket's chief economics spokesman (when Carly Fiornia, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO, flamed out.)  He turned over his scheduling to McCain's team, winning goodwill.  He's rehabbed his image fairly successfully.  Some of the old baggage may whip around on the conveyor belt, but there'll be less of it.
  1. He's kept in touch with the right people, including McCain. While it's known that the two former rivals have had dinner since the election, it's not well known that McCain occasionally calls upon Romney for policy advice. As Romney slowly expands his circle, his inner ring advisers remain intact, including every significant member of his Massachusetts gubernatorial staff, his communications team, and many of his consultants. (When Romney visits Washington, D.C., he'll take dinner with ad man Russ Schriefer, with press secretary Kevin Madden, and with former communications director Matt Rhoades, among others.)  Romney inspires loyalty like no other potential 2012 presidential candidate.
  1. He's helping the party. His donor base and personal wealth allow him to be a generous fundraiser for other candidates, campaigning for Republican gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie in New Jersey, Bob McDonnell in Virginia, Meg Whitman in California and his friend Bob Bennet in Utah. (Bennett's already running an ad featuring Romney's endorsement.)
  1. Good Bye To All That.  There's a sense among Romney regulars that the stuff that tripped him up in 2008 will not be relevant if he decides to run in 2012. The number of people who will oppose him because of his faith probably won't grow. He made his rookie mistakes in 2008.


Comments (19)

Obviously the only Repub who could be visualized in the White House. Now, has the Repub party changed so much we can visualize a Mormon from Massachusetts becoming the nominee? My thought: It's Palin's to lose.

The big problem with Romney is that there are a lot of evangelicals who will not vote for a Mormon, and they are not rational about this at all. So Mitt has to put together the old Reagan coalition, and without as much help from the Christian Protestant right as (say) a Palin or a Huckabee could take for granted.

On the other hand, there are a *lot* of Mormons out there. Enough to make up for the lack of evangelicals? I don't know.

He's the most reasonable candidate, at this point, from my point of view. Unless it looks like an Obama victory, in which case it might be best to let Sarah Palin take the fall and give Mitt a chance in 2016.

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bostonhud (Replying to: josh)

Enough to make up for lack of evangelicals? Probably not. But, with a Reagan coalition, and a possible Huckabee or other strong evangelical face as VP, a fighting shot. And yes, if Obama sees clear victory in 12, they should let Palin fall, saving Mitt for 16. Most reasonable candidate? He's the only candidate.

Buzz Feedback

He's not banging chicks who aren't his wife. Win by default.

All of what you say is true...BUT, that stuff is easy to pull off when, as you say, you only need to speak out every 2-3 weeks. In the 24/7 grind of a Presidential campaign, it's a lot harder to avoid gaffes, vindictiveness, or anger. Indeed, Romney wasn't really able to do it in 2008. Plus, Bain Capital is probably a time bomb in his campaign; Democrats already know how to cripple him with that.

He is Reaganesque. Doesn't get flustered. Doesn't need the teleprompter. Smart (valedictorian of BYU). Rich (Made his money making good decisions). Likable (Attracts a crowd and gets respect from liberal newscasters). Speaks French.

Can he beat Obama? Yes. The birth of progressive economics under the stewardship of Obama will be his own undoing.

Mark (Replying to: skitarghee)

I'm struggling to figure out if you're kidding. Mittens is the son of a former governor and presidential candidate who railed against the "East Coast Elites" at the RNC. He's the governor of Massachusetts who "changed his mind" over every significant piece of legislation that passed during his tenure. He's the guy who speaks French (badly) but demagogues France a la 2002. He was an unquestioning member of a religion that until very recently said dark-skinned people were evil.

There are so many reasons for voters to dislike Mittens. His RNC speech doesn't bode well for his ability to keep his head under pressure. There will soon be other reasons to dislike him.

None of these guys can beat Obama unless the economy is still weak (but not terrible) in 2012. But even if it is, only Romney can probably do the trick, since he's the only one who has any economic credibility. But Republicans won't nominate him, because he's Mormon and an asshole. Huckabee had the best line about him: "He looks like the guy who fires you." He has his backers, to be sure, but they play too much golf to get people nominated. The hardcore go for Palin or Huckabee, and that's probably the ticket.

Now, personally, as a liberal Democrat, Romney's the guy I'd rather lose to, the guy least likely to make a terrible President. But for that very reason he's the least likely to actually be the GOP nominee. They only want people who will make terrible Presidents, which is why Palin's their girl.

Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle (Replying to: conradg)

"He looks like the guy who fires you."

Bingo!! Not only that, but I'd like to ask Marc who Romney's donors are. After all, Mitt only kept his campaign afloat because he spent so much of his own money. And don't forget, Romney tried to tack left of Teddy Kennedy in the 1994 elections(The debates are on YouTube if you don't believe me). The one good thing about Romney(from a Democrat's prospective) is that he's a panderer supreme. Basically, he'd initiate Democratic policies if he thought it would make people like him. He has the greatest capacity to make wingnuts heads explode because he might not always do what they want, depending on which way the winds were blowing that day.

DaveinHackensack

"But Republicans won't nominate him, because he's Mormon and an asshole. Huckabee had the best line about him: "He looks like the guy who fires you." He has his backers, to be sure, but they play too much golf to get people nominated."

In what way is Romney "an asshole"?

Sure he looks good. The average American hasn't seen him in about a year. The problem with Romney is that he looks great on paper, but when the people see a lot of him, they get turned off. He comes off as a phony. No matter his resume and the things he's doing now to build momentum within the GOP, unless he finds a way to come off as authentic, he'll get rolled in the general, if he makes it that far.

I'm For Liberty

Can you imagine how different things would be if Mitt Romney were currently our president. I can. The stock market would never have dropped below 10,000. GM and Chrysler would have already been thru bankruptcy and would be back on the rise, we wouldn't be talking about "Crap and Trade", there would be no attempted Government takeover of our health care system and the same gender attracted military personnel would remain in the closet. President Romney would have been working to limit Government instead of destroying the United States of America. I am praying for Romney in 2012.

May God Bless America!

Absolute A-1 parody, my friend. Well done. Considering the Dow was at 8200 on Jan. 19, I'm, not sure how it would've risen miraculously by 2,000 the next day (and no, it would've have stayed above 10k after Nov. 4 if Romney were elected). Chrysler, btw, is already through bankruptcy and GM is looking like it'll make it through smoothly. As for the rest of your brilliant parody, I leave it to someone else to shoot those ducks in a barrel. Outside of Romney's immediate family, you may be one of the only ones who believe things would be so super-awesome were he elected. Pray all you want for Mittens in 2012. He ain't going to win.

NHCt (Replying to: NHCt)

Oops. No, it would NOT have stayed at 10,000 were Mittens elected on Nov.4. Freudian slip or lack of caffeine?

mattw1 (Replying to: I'm For Liberty)

@I'm For liberty

The "weekend at bernie's" of comments.

WhileListeningToTheBudosBand

Here's what's problematic about your analysis, Mark. It's hard to imagine a candidate better positioned to win the GOP nomination than Romney was circa November 2007. Let's review shall we?

Two months before the Iowa caucuses, Romney had:

(1) A significant lead in both Iowa and New Hampshire
(2) A money advantage of tens of millions of dollars over the next best funded opponent
(3) Secret support of the Bush family and White House
(4) A friendly reception from the center-left leaning national political press corps.

Then it all collapsed with the December Huckabee surge. He went from being the presumptive nominee to being arguably the 3rd place finisher in the field

How does Romney surpass the advantages he had during the '08 campaign? What, more money? More establishment support? More support from NY Times and The Atlantic columnists?

You fail to grasp a basic fact. Republican primary voters rejected Romney because they thought he wasn't genuine. It wasn't the Mormon issue. Romney had the entire establishment of the New Hampshire Republican Party behind him and he still couldn't beat McCain. Until Romney solves his fake-ness problem, he'll have significant trouble with the GOP primary electorate and during a general election.

That's not to mention the fact that Romney's term as Governor is now generally thought to have been a disaster by most Massachusetts residents, and they will come out of the woodwork to spread the word. Then add-in the fact that Romney founded a leveraged buyout firm means that he will spend an entire general election apologizing for the excesses of Wall Street and rest of the world of American high finance.

The most important thing is this: the center of power in the Republican Party is no longer in Washington. It's dispersed in the states. The Republican who will defeat Obama will have to be capable of inspiring and reuniting the grassroots activists and rank-and-file, and from there go on to build a broad-based coalition. Romney hasn't proven he can do that yet, and so the fact that Washington GOP elites are converging on Romney doesn't impress me.

The GOP nod in 2012 is still as wide open as any since 1980.

Well said.

@DaveinHackensack "In what way is Romney "an asshole"?"

"Phony" is a much better word. He is a man without principals or convictions other than wanting to be elected. He said one set of things in Massachusetts and polar opposite things on the Republican primary trail.

Voters of all stripes sense that he is an empty suit, a complete phony. For him to beat Obama in 2012, the economy has to collapse completely. Even with a weak economy, so long as Obama is in the FDR, "I'll keep trying stuff until something works" mode, he will eviscerate Romney or any other Republican.

There is no way Romney will ever be President. It's impossible.