Christopher Beam at Slate makes the excellent observation that President Obama excels at selling his policy reforms as the solution to a complex web of issues extending far beyond the core policy. Health care reform, for example, is always about more than health care. It's about corporate competitiveness, a nimble job market that isn't tethered to precious employer benefits, more disposable income for families, freed up state funds for education and infrastructure, diminished deficits, diminished reliance on foreign owners of the deficit, and so on. Beam quips, "the only thing left for Obama to cite is some statistic showing most terrorist attacks are the result of high premiums."
Beam hits on most of the advantages of Obama's karmic approach to selling policy, but I wanted to highlight two distinct drawbacks. First, it forces him to promise too much from his reforms. Second, as anybody who's played Jenga knows, interconnectedness has its risks.
To be sure, promising too much from your policies is a prerogative of governing. But in Obama's case, where no stone should be left unturned by reform, I think it threatens to raise public expectations to a level where reality will prove to be a consistent disappointment. Take his cap-and-trade policies. Obama sees it creating five million jobs, reducing emissions by 80 percent by 2050, and saving Americans $130 billion on energy bills.
Now wait. The point of cap-and-trade (or carbon taxing) is to price the negative externality of carbon pollution to discourage profligate production by firms and over-use by consumers. That means creating a little bit of hitherto unfelt pain to teach both sides the true cost of carbon. How do you raise the market price of carbon nearer to its environmental "cost" and save Americans money on their energy bills in the short term? It's not possible, really. Whether you auction the carbon allowances and kick back to consumers or don't auction the allowances and foot consumers with a larger bill, the price of energy has to rise. In the long term, perhaps, "everybody wins." In the short term, everybody pays.
There are other risks that follow inevitably from the everything-is-connected school of speaking. If every reform is balancing on another policy, what happens when that Jenga piece comes loose? Beam quotes Obama tying the GM bailout to health care reform. On the one hand, he's right to do so. GM pays $65 per hour to its employees when you factor in its bloated health care costs to current and retired workers, which contributed to its money woes. But it's ominous that today the New York Times released a poll finding that the public is falling behind the Obama administration on two key issues: GM and health care reform. While the president's overall approval rating is still a healthy 63 percent, views of the president's job with the auto industry and health care hover in the mid-to-low 40s, and this before what will be a sweltering summer of negotiations in DC.
Obama's ability to explain himself through narratives rather than sound bites is, on the whole, a distinct advantage, and Beam is right to focus his piece on the positive aspects of Obama's karmic worldview, in which we are all connected in the great circle of policy reform. But, as we head into a health care process where Obama clearly has more convincing to do, I wonder whether he'll continue to sample from a buffet of interconnected benefits of reform, or pick one theme and run with it.
Jenga! Flickr image from 416style.
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Jun 18 2009, 2:20 pm







"Now wait. The point of cap-and-trade ... How do you raise the market price of carbon nearer to its environmental "cost" and save Americans money on their energy bills in the short term? It's not possible, really. ... In the short term, everybody pays."
Actually, it is not that difficult to come up with scenarios where cap and trade will save Americans money. Consider, that cap and trade does not pass, and oil continues rising $10/barrel every year (a modest amount considering last years' $150/bl). The cost of energy paid by Americans would continue to rise. Now suppose cap and trade passes, and instantly there is a $20/bl surcharge on gas. Gas costs no doubt increase, but the money collected is used to incubate/accelerate renewable energy sources. These sources will develop one day without this aid too, but this aid given now may brig them to fruition several years in advance. Another issue that most of these sources face is a question of scale, until a large number of people adopt them, they wont become cheap. And people wont adopt them until they become cheap (in comparison to gas costs). So cap and trade by making gas more expensive and some of these sources cheaper, instantly makes the question of scale much easier to overcome. Once these sources are fully developed/functional people would switch over from gas en masse, saving Americans tons of money in energy costs. As more and more people overcome poverty in China and India, gas is going to go through the roof. Anything that helps Americans switch to alternatives is going to save them money.
"save Americans money on their energy bills in the short term?"
Yes, I agree "short term" (though I am not exactly sure how short term is Derek intending here.. a few days, months, years?) costs may increase, since most people would continue with oil initially. By the way, I am trying to locate a source which says that Obama said that the savings would appear immediately or "short term". Is there a specific instance where this has been said or implied? That might help in understanding why this discussion is focused on the "short term".
Cap and trade, specifically, needs to be MUCH better explained to the public before going forward, as my preliminary understanding was that it was carbon neutral.
As to the tone of the rest of this post, I would agree. To the degree that Obama relies on public obfuscation to pass public policies that are ENTIRELY confiscatory, he had BETTER be willing to step up with matching rationales that JUSTIFY such measures.
Fair to say that NO rational Democrat OR Republican would ask for less.
Cap and trade policies can cause reductions directly, allow increases, or be neutral. It all depends how it is applied. The theory of cap and trade is that you pick some level and say that, for example, carbon emissions, can't ever again exceed this level. This is generally thought that it would be applied by limiting emitters to a certain amount of emission, and if they want to exceed that amount, they can either buy allowances from people not using their full allotment (the trade), or face punishment. What decides the primary effect of this is what level is chosen as the limit. If you pick a limit that's lower than the current emissions, then you cause a reduction. If you pick the current levels, you get neutrality, and if you pick some higher level, you can allow an increase. Of course this doesn't include the secondary effects that cap and trade can have on things like the economy, other fuel sources, etc. So it can get much more complicated, but that's they general layout of things.
The upper and middle class have no incentive to change health care or deal with global warming as it might require something of them. And that's fine with me. I have a job and I don't have kids. Carpe diem!
Oh Neal,
On such sentiments are great nations built...NOT
What's the phrase that comes to mind, the only problem with America are the Americans. Lord have mercy on them.
ADJUSTING EXPECTATIONS WHILE RETAINING CLOUT
Obama’s ability to link issues together in a way that changes the framework of how people see them is a gift no other president in the post-WW2 era had. People appreciate this talent partly because it takes politics out of the narrow, single-issue framework that was adopted by the Democratic party during the 1970s. Obama speaks in a new way. That is why he won the election and maintains his popularity now.
The linkage and goals can still exist, even if the strategy changes. Instead of going for the maximums of campaign promises, he should focus on getting the camel’s head under the tent for health care, energy and global warming. They are still linked and, for better or worse, they all depend on a healthy economy.
Obama could give one of his most important speeches explaining to the ‘Obama majority’ that, given the economy, he will focus on incremental reforms instead of the maximum laid out in campaign promises. He assures them that an initial package of policy reforms can be crafted in ways that he and successors can build on them. More importantly, in ways that can’t be easily un-done by successor Congresses.
For example, passing portability and ‘prior disease’ legislation would change the delivery of health care and open it up to millions who can’t get insurance now. Hold the ‘public plan option’ out (as the Chair of Senate Finance suggests) as a negative incentive to cut costs.
In other words, Obama can ‘make the world safe for incrementalism’ with the same scope, vision and rallying effect that he’s brought to other major issues since elected.