Some interesting tidbits today on Intrade, the prediction market that takes bets on all things political, in addition to wine and art prices, with a reputation for accuracy:
- Intrade has begun taking bets on whether American journalists Euna Lee and Laura Ling will be released by North Korea before midnight ET on December 31, 2009--which is probably more interesting from ethical angles than political ones. So far, 172 bids have been placed, and the closing price is currently 75, indicating a market consensus that there's a 75 percent chance Lee and Ling will be released.
- Bettors are picking Mir Hussein Moussavi to unseat Iranian President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the country's elections this Friday: bets on
Moussavi are trading at 55 (indicating a consensus 55 percent
likelihood); Ahmadinejad's at 40.1 (40.1 consensus probability)
- Cap and trade energy reform is dead even. Bets on whether a cap and trade system for
emissions trading will be established before midnight ET on December
31, 2010 is trading at an even 50; bettors think it's less likely to
happen this year (in the high twenties).
Iran, in particular, is a big mess for the west. Even if Moussavi wins, there would not be a sea change in Iran's policy towards the United States. The revolutionary guards and Mullahs are too strong in that country.
http://proamericanmuslims.wordpress.com/
I find it disturbing and in poor taste that both Intrade is bidding on the journalists' release and that this site chose to report the item as an interesting little news bit. Two journalists are being held against their will, probably going through hell, and all you care to mention in this story is a betting pool on their release? What a tasteless angle. Please learn how to report this story (and others like it) in a way that shows some respect for the lives of these two reporters (yes, people who do what you're doing right now).