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Jun 23 2009, 5:45 pm by Matthew Cooper

Why Are Obama's Polls Slipping?

Today's presidential press conference was supposed to be held in the Rose Garden, but it got canceled because of the heat. I suspect this was less a tender concern about the press corps, which would have to be seated long in advance of the president, and not wanting the president to sweat and drip on camera.

Obama's poll numbers have been going down, although they remain high. Why are they going down? A lot of it seems to have to do with spending and government intervention in the economy, which has roused fears of independents. 70 percent of respondents in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll said that they were concerned "a great deal" or "quite a bit" about the GM takeover.

I have a slightly different spin on this, which is that it's the spending and the modest success it seems to have brought in stopping the total collapse of the banking and financial system. If the economy felt like it was in the same free fall that it was a few months ago, he'd be doing better because there'd be less questioning of government spending and more calls to pour everything on the fire. But with the respite in the fall comes the freedom to question spending. Or, to put it another way: The firemen saved your house but now you're pissed off about all the water damage in the den.

That applies to Ben Bernanke, who raised questions about the deficit in his last testimony before Congress, and its true of the public. It's a paradox: If things were worse, Obama would be doing better. At this point, more economic decline isn't going to help Obama. More green shoots will, or passing health care reform or a good foreign policy showdown.

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Comments (18)

Abhinav

"I have a slightly different spin on this, which is that it's the spending and the modest success it seems to have brought in stopping the total collapse of the banking and financial system. If the economy felt like it was in the same free fall that it was a few months ago, he'd be doing better because there'd be less questioning of government spending and more calls to pour everything on the fire. But with the respite in the fall comes the freedom to question spending."

I have a slightly different spin on your different spin. It has everything to do with the modest success. Trouble is that the roughly 5-10% people who stopped approving Obama's performance were perhaps expecting a lot more than modest success. Or it could be some of these people have lost their jobs. There's still a recession going on, with unemployment rising, in case you have forgotten. Nothing like losing your job to bring it home. The slight fall in Obama's numbers has nothing to do with the deficit. Whenever the public is asked about the deficit, the public always displays concern, but they never punish politicians for it which is why both Democrats and Republicans have been pushing up the debt ceiling without any distress.

Like Obama said this is still the worst economic crisis for over 70 years. Any politician, who could be scapegoated/blamed for this, having an approval rating above 50% consistently should be a matter of surprise, rather than a drop of a few points being puzzling. For God's sake, the previous guy lagged by 40 approval points just 6 months back.

mikec

That may have some marginal impact, but I tend to think that the real answer is more prosaic. Obama has always been much more popular than his policies. He just has a great public persona. But now two things are happening. First, his plans are solidifying in people's minds, and lots of people who love the persona aren't so crazy about the policies. Second, Bush is just gone, and Obama owns the problems: the GM situation is his; the spending is his; inactivity on gay rights is his; the tepid response to elections in Iran is his; changes to medical care are his.

leishman

Why are his numbers dropping?

1. He made too many campaign promises to too many interest groups.
2. Starry-eyed Buyers develop remorse.
3. Honeymoon's about over for all but the fawning press.

ast1238

How many people want to admit to a pollster that they're disappointed with our first black president's performance?

Somewhere around 90% are worried about reckless deficit spending, but 70% think the president's doing a bang up job? Someone's not telling the truth.

kcom

"He just has a great public persona."

I just don't see it. I never have.* So I guess I never will. But apparently other people do. And so, as far as I'm concerned, the sooner people start basing their opinions of him on his policies and accomplishments, and not his public "persona", the happier I will be. What he does and doesn't do, and how well he does it, is what will matter in the long run.

*He's always seemed like an aloof, cold fish to me. And the way he clips off the ends of his sentences makes him annoying to listen to, to boot.

Nom de Blog

The problem Mr. Cooper alleges for President Obama's economic policies is the problem President Bush encountered vis-a-vis terrorism. Because there were no large-scale terrorist attacks on American soil month after month the threat slipped further from people's minds. Somehow the MSM never credited Mr. Bush on that account.

However, the reasoning w/rt Obama's poll declines cannot hold. First, there has not been a month after month series of good economic news to encourage the notion that Obama's policies are working. The projections of several months ago have only gotten worse on unemployment and capacity utilization. That has happened in spite of the promises the Obama Administration made regarding the efficacy of their plans.

Additionally, the fiscal stimulus set upon by the Democrats has barely taken hold. There are no "shovel-ready" projects of import available due to bureaucratic holdups.

Therefore, the lack of even more negative news (e.g. systemic failure) has been generated by the monetary policies that the politically independent Fed has taken. Since Obama cannot claim those were his policies without admitting the politicization of the Fed, it seems highly dubious to credit Obama with their successes, such as they are.

What is interesting is that the JournoList would test this trial balloon for explaining Obama's dip in the polls when Occam's Razor suggests otherwise. But keep up the good fight. Pravda and Izvestia would be proud.

ic

Don't be silly Cooper. He hasn't saved a thing except put us in enormous debts. The banks were "saved" with the half of the $750 billions allocated last year. The enormous "stimulus" spending hasn't be spent yet. If the economy has turned around without the extra trillion spending, then we don't need the trillion deficit spending. Mind you, the trillion he budgeted for was for year 2009. Another trillion for 2010?

JIMV

Is it not possible that the economy is marginally better not because of anything the Dear Leader has done. After all, the CBO has noted that very little of the money has even reached the economy yet. Perhaps people are simply waking up and grabbing their wallets in horror.

mndasher

His poll numbers are dropping because he has no concept of economics. He and his willing minions in congress have spent money like there is no tomorrow. And yet he still wants to spend trillions more on "reforming" a health care system that works pretty damn good for 85 percent of us. The fact is there is no health care crisis. It is a manufactured crisis out of whole cloth -- like all government induced crises. It seems governments only job is to create crises to perpetuate their power and control over the people.

gww99

Yes, I agree. That sounds like the usual way government works. If spending a lot of money to turn the economy around did not work, then spending more is only logical. It is generally what failing school districts do when they keep raising the budget in the face of students continuing not to perform.

If there are "green shoots", it is because of you and me and 300 million Americans, not because a piddly amount of stimulus has reached the guys that dig holes and then fill them in again.

The recovery from Katrina was convincing enough to me. It was the grit and determination of the victims of Katrina that forced 99% of the recovery. Much of the infrastructure that government was supposed to fix remains undone.

ottovbvs (Replying to: gww99)

I wonder if you know the federal govt has poured about $60 billion into the Katrina affected states. You folks are so naive and simplistic.

crimfan

Boring old decline from post election? i.e., the standard pattern nearly all presidents go thru?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Presidential_approval_rating

PD Quig

Oh, I don't know. Maybe because he has broken nearly every campaign promise, has relinquished his 'fierce moral urgency,' in favor of the same old same old, has retained 95% of the same policies for which he criticized his predecessor, has brought Chicago thug politics to the national scene? Beyond that, perhaps because he continually says one thing and does another with what he evidently believes to be undetectable guile?

America was so tired after Bush, it made a huge misjudgment of this cypher now inhabiting the White House. Americans may not be as glib, smooth and 'cool' as Obama, but we do possess BS detectors and are discovering that he is a classic arrogant bullshitter who is in WAY over his head. His numbers are dropping because America disagrees with his policy prescriptions that they fear will destroy what political and economic liberty remains.

Concerned Citizen

Why is Obama's approval rating dropping? Obama is a rookie and it's starting to show. He's made huge errors with the Chrysler and GM bailouts that will have unintended consequences for years. People who pay taxes are realizing he's been spending their money like he's going to the electric chair. He couldn't care less about foreign policy because it is a distraction from grabbing control of every aspect of the automotive, banking, healthcare and energy industries. With control of those industries, he can have influence over everything else. Don't do what we want? We'll yank your health insurance or pull your bank loan. It's not going to be pretty and people are wising up fast.

His unrelenting support of the parasite classes (i.e. non-taxpayers, the UAW and bankers) are beginning to wear on the electorate now that they have figured out who is going to pay for all this fun.

If I were cynical, I would say he's done the math to figure out which 50.1% of the voters he's going to try to buy off with the taxpayer's money in the next election. To hell with everyone else.

Brian Macker

"Or, to put it another way: The firemen saved your house but now you're pissed off about all the water damage in the den. "

Oh, no you've got it wrong. The problem is that his response to a government induced fire was to steal my credit card, use it to buy firewood, stack it in my den, pour gas on it and then lock me in the den with it.

ottovbvs

I think there's probably a bit of truth in this analysis but in fact there has been remarkably little erosion in Obama's level of support. His overall approval remains in the sixties and he continues to enjoy a 30% margin over Republicans. Even when you get down to who people are more comfortable with handling all the major issues he's getting a larger vote than he was elected by and enjoys a 20% plus margin over Republicans even on terrorism which is supposed to be their strong suit. To me the really significant numbers emerging from these polls are the total collapse in support for Republicans. But I suppose that's not news. Every single one of them is showing the worst GOP approvals ever! The reasons for this are myriad but seem to me well summed up in the very typical mindlessness of the comment from Brian Macker which just about encapsulates the intellectual sophistication of the Republican messaging at present. These are the dog days of summer, I take "issue" questions with a large pinch of salt either because the questions are slanted or the public isn't interested/focussed. It seems fairly clear to me the public continues to reside a lot of faith in the Obama administration and he personally is the most liked and trusted man, and institution, in the country. After all who is going to displace Obama in order to enthrone Palin/Gingrich/Limbaugh/Boehner/Cheney/McCain et al.

ottovbvs (Replying to: ottovbvs)

I also feel compelled to point out just how silly all this sky is falling speculation really is by pointing out one fact. If the election were re-run today Obama/Biden versus McCain/Palin then Obama would almost certainly pull over 60% of the vote!

Nom de Blog (Replying to: ottovbvs)

What a rousing defense of Obama.

What's that? You didn't manage to defend a single Obama policy but instead made remarks against Republicans? It's almost as if you're more concerned with power than with governing well. As it has ever been with Democrats...