Comments for Will Sanford's Sins Change Politics?

Will Sanford's Sins Change Politics?

2009-06-25T13:12:36Z

Yes They Will:

1. He's the latest in a line of potential GOP presidential candidates to fall victim to his personal appetites. This means that the GOP primary electorate is more likely to choose a nominee with stellar, unimpeachable family-values, socially conservative credentials, which means that anyone who evinces moderation hasn't got a shot. Remember: Rudy Giuliani lost the presidential race because news reminded voters about his previous indiscretions.

2. Gov. Haley Barbour, as the new RGA chair, is the most powerful Republican in politics today, second only, I think, to Mitt Romney. Barbour has always craved a return to the respectable power circles in Washington. The race just lost a real Southerner, ceding to Barbour the GOP's juiciest territory. Watch for Barbour to be more aggressive about his national ambitions. (I'm not saying he WILL run for president, just that he wants to.)

3. The GOP loses one of its most articulate anti-spending, anti-deficit spokespersons. Sanford's machinations may not have been popular, but he articulated a view of the world that many conservatives share. He was to many the face of opposition to President Obama's increasingly unpopular stimulus bill.

4. The topsy-turvy world of South Carolina Republican politics is now even more chaotic, if you can believe that. This may give Democrats a chance to move in that state.

5. The media will have more license to investigate rumors of personal indiscretions, and politicians will be more defensive. A few years ago, the media would ignore the rumors, owing to a post-Clinton detente/public wariness about the private lives of politicians. Not anymore.

6. This may be a tipping point: a few examples of conservative moralists who cheat on their wives (Vitter, Ensign) can be, perhaps, accepted as evidence that human beings are normal. But at some point, the liberal talking point about GOP hypocrisy starts to have the ring of truth, even though plenty of Democrats have been implicated in affairs of their own. Moralizers in politics don't have the clout they once did, and Sanford joins the list of politicians who are responsible. The usual "blame the culture of New York and Washington" line, which was used to explain the indiscretions of the two most recent New York Democratic governors and of Senators Ensign and Vitter, don't apply to Sanford. He was as South Carolinian as all get out.

7. The GOP will find itself distracted at a time when the party needs to be disciplined on health care and energy. Every GOP officeholder will be forced to spend valuable time explaining why their party stands for family values.

No They Won't:

1. As one correspondent put it to me, the GOP is at a market bottom already. The public's image of the party can't really go down much further.

2. Most Americans probably didn't know who Sanford was before today, so it'll hard to attribute any massive change in politics to his sudden emergence.

3. Sanford was never a viable 2012 candidate because of his eccentricity; to put him in the same category as a Mitt Romney or a Sarah Palin misjudges the impact he would have had.

4. What policy will change because of this? It's a fantasy to think that voters will get the joke about how gay people keep ruining straight politician's lives.

5. Enough already. Wars, economic crises, major reform of health care and fiscal policy, Jon and Kate, the Iranian revolution: our collective bandwidth may be at capacity.

6. Logically, Mark Sanford's affair tells us nothing about the rightness or wrongness of policy (although it does hurt the way one particular brand is sold.)

Comment from OGLiberal on 2009-06-25

2009-06-25T13:50:26Z

RE: this point:

"3. Sanford was never a viable 2012 candidate because of his eccentricity; to put him in the same category as a Mitt Romney or a Sarah Palin misjudges the impact he would have had."

I'll admit that Romney is a model of stability and sanity compared to Sanford, but if Sarah Palin can be the most popular Republican in the country, I have to think goofy Mark Sanford could compete for that spot as well, even post-affair revelation. Actually, the GOP dream candidate would be a combo of the two - take Palin, give her Sanford's Southern good ol' boy background/accent and his ability to speak relatively fluenty about fiscal conservatism (plus, his writing skills - the emails to his mistress weren't half-bad) and you could christen that candidate the 2012 GOP nominee today. The only thing that would make it better would be if this female Palin-Sanford combo had an affair with an Argentinian woman. That would have GOP men frothing at the mouth and falling to the floor in fits of ecstasy.

Comment from ottovbvs on 2009-06-25

2009-06-25T13:56:33Z

The problem with Marc's analysis is that it is a mixture of the tactical and strategic. Yes it's going to make a few tactical changes in the Republican line up but somehow I don't see fat, red faced, very southern, old Haley Barbour as the fresh face likely to revive the GOP. Its only probable strategic effect is that it will reinforce the linkage of GOP=Hypocrisy in the public mind. Remember the word association game Bush=Liar. It's fatal. The Republicans are just seen as being hypocritical on matters of real substance like spending but also on this sort of values stuff. So the Scarlet H is the most likely long term consequence of this.

Comment from Borat on 2009-06-25

2009-06-25T14:31:26Z

Sarah Palin vs. Mitt Romney in 2012. This should be fun.

Comment from JohnMcC on 2009-06-25

2009-06-25T15:15:53Z

So at this point the most likely candidates the Repubs can field are Palin, Romney, Huckabee, and Haley Barbour? Is that what we're seeing?

Wonderful!!

Comment from Kevin B on 2009-06-25

2009-06-25T16:43:37Z

Does the Democratic operative in Argentina still have good cover? If so, maybe she could pretend to be Russian and go after Sarah Palin.

I think a significant portion of Palin's base would actually enjoy that.

Comment from OGLiberal on 2009-06-25

2009-06-25T17:05:35Z

Hey, Kevin B, no fair! I posted that idea first!

And yes, I agree, the white male GOPers who loves them some Sarah - think Joe/Sam the Unlicensed Plumber or Sean Hannity - would have their wildest dreams fulfilled if she had an affair with a beautiful Argentinian woman. An added bonus would be if emails between the two were uncovered, emails where they talked about touching each other's "women's things" as well as the type of ammo they use for their semi-automatic rifles.

Comment from colby on 2009-06-25

2009-06-25T17:19:00Z

"Remember: Rudy Giuliani lost the presidential race because news reminded voters about his previous indiscretions."

Isn't this kinda the opposite of what you were saying last night? Anyway, I still contend that Giuliani's failure had more to do with his crummy campaign than his personal problems.

"A few years ago, the media would ignore the rumors, owing to a post-Clinton detente/public wariness about the private lives of politicians."

Really? Check First Read this morning, there wasn't much of a break. Hell, Giuliani's even in that list...

Comment from LLeGrande on 2009-06-25

2009-06-25T18:00:07Z

If one understands and accepts evolution and the sexual habits of great apes, including chimpanzees, bonobos, and humans, one can understand and accept these sexual dalliances as natural within our species.

What one need not tolerate is the fraud perpetrated upon us all by these 'traditional values', evangelical religious right hypocrit politicians. Not only do they expect and push on the rest of the citizenry to behave themselves within certain norms, they are against many other matters such as gay rights, single mothers, etc. etc.

One could even tolerate those premises, perhaps, if these moralist politicians just preached their crap as if coming from the pulpit into a church filled with willing attendees.

But, that's not the case at all. These hypocrit frauds in high government positions use their office to influence legislation, rules, regulations, principles of government to affect everyone by the moralist positions which they espouse, but from which they, as the political elite, exempt themselves.

When will we all wake up and smell their putrid coffee?

Comment from Clarissa on 2009-06-25

2009-06-25T18:31:08Z

More importantly, will Sanford's sins change Hollywood?

Real life has thrown down the gauntlet with a first-rate tragicomedy. Will Hollywood respond to the challenge by turning out some movies that are more than just framing stories for a series of explosions? I mean, really - this is a story that's got something for everybody.

Comment from Kevin B on 2009-06-25

2009-06-25T19:48:47Z

OGLiberal
Oops, I see now. You definitely went there first. Congratulations.

Could be a plot for Nailin' Palin II.

Comment from SkyKing on 2009-06-25

2009-06-25T21:17:17Z

If a former president's failings didn't change politics, why would a governor's?

It does change our culture however. Now, young people everywhere know when sex isn't sex.

And when it is, it really isn't. It's now called hooking-up.

Comment from claire bannerman on 2009-06-25

2009-06-25T21:27:58Z

Reality check - Palin will have dumped Todd by 2012 and a whole different scenario will be played out.

Comment from SteveP on 2009-06-25

2009-06-25T21:31:58Z

So what I take from this article and these comments is that, barring clear and compelling evidence that the President Obama has been using the White House for Caligula style orgies, he's good for 2012?

Comment from Steve Wooden on 2009-06-26

2009-06-26T06:27:25Z

The GOP's wedge-driving strategies are nearing the end of their half-life. Michael Jackson's unexpected death may draw a lot of attention away from Mark Sanford anyway.

Comment from rlodewell on 2009-06-26

2009-06-26T12:28:41Z

Perhaps Mark Sanford was behind the death of Jackson?

None of the morons the GOP has hanging around can beat Obama unless things fall apart in a very serious way.

(And how come Obama comes up as misspelled on here????? It's underlined in red as if it's wrong. Can't someone add him to the dictionary?)