Politics with Marc Ambinder

July 2009 Archives

Jul 31 2009, 5:14PM

Obama Citizenship Poll: Things Get Weird In The GOP Base

The political world was more or less stunned Friday by the revelation that, according to Research 2000, less than half of Republicans think President Obama was born in the U.S. In fact, 28 percent of the poll's GOP respondents said he wasn't.

After initial questions of whether this can be, it's clear that the polling methodology looks pretty good: Research 2000 polled a decent sample of 2,400 adults nationwide, and the regions are split evenly.

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Jul 31 2009, 3:17PM

Polling And Democracy, Cont'd

At his Atlantic Correspondents blog, Conor Clarke revisits his Heisenbergian questions over whether political polling is, in fact, bad, by virtue of its inaccuracies and influence on the very opinions and voting preferences it seeks to measure:
1. Let me make one big concession at the start. I wouldn't vote for a law than banned polls, and were I dictator of the universe I wouldn't want to outlaw them. (I'm a fan of free speech; I'd get that first amendment tattoo in a heartbeat; etc.) The position that I would feel more comfortable defending is something like "polls are on balance a bad thing." Or, even more milquetoasty: "polls are not the best use of newspaper resources."

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Jul 31 2009, 2:30PM

Why The Latest Nigerian Unrest Should Matter More

If the Obama administration is really interested in conducting America's foreign relations differently, it should take a deep seated interest in the situation in Nigeria right now.

The New York Times reported Nigerian security forces on Thursday confirmed the death of the leader of a fundamentalist Islamic sect in the city of Maiduguri, apparently ending a fierce five-day campaign against the group that may have left hundreds dead across northern Nigeria.

The militant group led by Mohammed Yusuf, known as Boko Haram or Taliban, wants to overthrow the Nigerian government and impose a strict version of Islamic law. It has been blamed for days of violent unrest in which hundreds of people died in clashes between his followers and security forces.

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Jul 31 2009, 2:04PM

Seniors Sour on Health Care Reform, Just Like Social Security Changes

Democrats are running into the same trouble with health care reform as Republicans did with Social Security several years ago: senior citizen support.

A Gallup poll released Friday shows adults age 65 and older are the least likely of any age group to think health care reform will benefit them personally -- by a three-to-one margin. As many think reform will reduce their access to health care as do think it wouldn't change their access. Almost 40 percent said reform would worsen their own medical care.

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Jul 31 2009, 12:10PM

Dems Wage Health Care Offensive On House Republicans

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will put the heat on some House Republicans this August with a month-long health care campaign waged against the lawmakers on its 25-member target list, which National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions (TX) and House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (VA). Starting Monday, the DCCC will air radio ads in seven districts--those held by Michele Bachmann (MN), Joseph Cao (LA), Charlie Dent (PA), Dan Lungren (CA), Thaddeus McCotter (MI), Erik Paulsen (MN), Dave Reichert (WA), and Pat Tiberi (OH).

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Jul 31 2009, 11:45AM

-1 Is The Loneliest Number....

The White House eagerly jumped on news this morning that the first estimate of aggregate demand in the 2nd quarter of 2009 came in higher than expected. Let's put the number -- a one percent decline -- in some political context. Clearly, the White House spin is prewritten: the stimulus package and other government interventions have acted like a superconductor, slowing the downward flow of demand. (They might even use the incredible popularity of the cash-for-clunkers program to suggest that Americans are eager to begin to spend, again.) The White House spin isn't angled too far away from the truth. The number of Americans who're relying on government assistance -- unemployment and extended benefits -- is at an all-time high. The direct government transfer part of the stimulus is working as intended, with consumption falling by only a little over 1.2% and with state and local governments recouping about half of their projected deficits. The fact that the final estimate of 1st quarter gross domestic product was revised downward by nearly a full percentage point is one reason why the second quarter projection isn't that high ... given the backstop of government spending and in the absence of a complete collapse of the financial markets, there's only so much the economy can contract. The White House's failure to manage economic expectations is one of the reasons why President Obama's approval ratings are twitchy, and one of the reasons why dissidents have some power in the health care reform debate. Today's number ... just a number ... finally gives the White House a hard datum to use. But I still think the White House would rather go into the August recess with a draft health care bill and not a (happy as it may seem) economic statistic.

Jul 31 2009, 10:36AM

No Apologies, But Constructive Words

Henry Louis Gates, Jr. and Sgt. James Crowley have agreed to move on, but they did not, in their statements after their beer meeting with President Obama and Vice President Biden, apologize or say they had come to an agreement about what happened at Gates' house July 16.

Their tone was conciliatory: Gates posted an op-ed at The Root expressing "hope that many people have emerged with greater sympathy for the daily perils of policing, on the one hand, and for the genuine fears about racial profiling, on the other hand," and asserting that he and Crowley, "through an accident of time and place, have been cast together, inextricably, as characters--as metaphors, really--in a thousand narratives about race over which he and I have absolutely no control."

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Jul 31 2009, 6:30AM

Obama's Poll Slide: Cause For Concern?

Should the White House be concerned about President Obama's slide in polls? Is he truly losing the public's support, or is this just a blip?

Jul 30 2009, 7:30PM

The Day In Politics, 7/30

Today, we learned that Mohammed Jawad will be released from Guantanamo; the results of the racial profiling study President Obama called for as a state legislator can be difficult to interpret; people have a lot to say about the beer at the Obama/Gates/Crowley meeting today; and conservatives have big plans for August recess when it comes to health care.

We also mulled Obama's return to earth; whether government policy can help obesity; children as an imperative for doing so; whether Obama is miffed at insinuations that he's anti-business; whether liberals will cave on health care; and some alternative theories for Obama's poll slippage.

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Jul 30 2009, 6:30PM

The Invisible Primary, 7/30

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Newt Gingrich talked about health care at Gundersen Lutheran Medical Center in La Crosse, Wisconsin; Haley Barbour did the same at the Neshoba County Fair; Tim Pawlenty will address members of the Republican National Committee in San Diego today; U.S. News & World Report's Dan Gilgoff wondered if Pawlenty can win with both Evangelicals and moderates; and Sarah Palin will make her first appearance since stepping down as governor Sunday, August 8 at a gala for a Republican women's group at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California (the event will be closed to media.

Jul 30 2009, 4:59PM

Alternative Theories on Obama's Poll Decline

The Washington elites are abuzz over Obama's poll decline. Of course, polls are mercurial, everchanging and go up and down. Nevertheless they do reflect a reality of public perception at a particular moment and they create their own dynamic. New research from the folks at Pew suggests that the economy, health care and Obama's comments on the Henry Louis Gates arrest have helped push his numbers down.  All those things certainly make sense. While everybody wants health care reform in the abstract, people are bound to be disappointed when it comes to specifics. And the economy continues to suffer despite an uptick in the financial markets. The Gates episode seems to have hurt Obama most with non-Hispanic whites who may more naturally side with the police that Obama claims acted "stupidly" before walking his comments back. 

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Jul 30 2009, 4:54PM

The Politics Of Thinking Thin: It's About The Kids

To Megan McArdle's "thinking thin" post about the causes of obesity,  the relevant question for policy-makers is not whether there is a mono-causal explanation for obesity, it is whether policy-makers can and should do something about it. If everyone responded to the pressures of (a) a corn diet (b) TV advertising (c) the ubiquity of fat and sugary foods (d) the information disseminated by the government and the diet industry (e) technological enabling of a sedentary lifestyle in the same way, it is relatively easy to answer the question. If you tend to blame individuals for their choices, then your answer will be no. But the crucial fact is that obesity does not treat everyone equally. It discriminates according to status, class and geography. And its negative externalities are absorbed by these vulnerable populations.  And in children, being overweight is increasingly become the default. Unless someone intervenes, if you go with the flow,  if you live in a vulnerable population, you're going to be quite vulnerable to an obesogenic lifestyle.  This debate isn't about government dictating lifestyle choices to adults. It's about whether changing policy can reduce obesity among children.

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Jul 30 2009, 4:51PM

Lawmakers Will Face Tea Parties, And More, In August

Over August recess, conservative activist groups will mount a renewed effort to kill the dreaded ObamaCare. August will be a melee of grassroots (or Astroturfed) activity on both sides: members of Congress will be home in their districts, holding town-halls, taking feedback from constituents--in other words, they'll be more open to pressure from activist campaigns than at any other time during the year.

It will be a semi-organized affair, with a handful of unaffiliated or loosely affiliated conservative groups urging their members to show up at Democrats' town-hall meetings, attend tea parties, call and visit the offices of senators and congressmen. There will also be a bus tour.

Conservative activists are less unified than their liberal counterparts. Organizing for America (OFA) and the progressive conglomeration Health Care for America Now! (HCAN) run point on grassroots activism for the left; they will head up efforts to support Obama's reforms in August with rallies and door-to-door canvasses. OFA has 13 million members (Obama's campaign list), and HCAN's member groups--including major unions, MoveOn.org, Planned Parenthood, ACORN, and a myriad of national and state-level groups--total 30 million members, not counting overlaps.

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Jul 30 2009, 3:38PM

Will The Liberals Cave On Health Care?

The central organizing principle of negotiations between House leaders, Blue Dogs and the White House seems to be that House progressives will make lots of loud, angry noises about a weaker public plan but will not have the gumption to actually vote against the plan when it comes to the floor. It seems as if everyone but the House liberals believe that the House liberals will ultimately cave. This assumption has history going for it: in situations like this, liberals tend to cave. But circumstances are very different. If it looks as if health care will be defeated, perception might drive reality, and enough liberals could cave, thereby jeopardizing reform. Again, the White House doesn't seem to think that they'll hold fast, and is promising them that the House-Senate conference on health care will be tinged with a progressive spirit. They'll also make the blunt case that if liberals do revolt, they'll destroy Obama's presidency. 

Jul 30 2009, 2:46PM

Obama to Business: Be Grateful I Saved This Economy

Does President Obama hate businesspeople? No, according to President Obama. The second thing that I took away from that BusinessWeek interview was a sense that the president seemed a little irked by suggestions that he was anti-business.

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Jul 30 2009, 1:24PM

Mohammed Jawad And Executive Power

The national security law/politics nexus has been buzzing this week about the implications of the government's handling of the status of Mohammed Jawad. His release was formally ordered today by federal judge Ellen Huvelle. 

The facts of the case are straightforward. Jawad seemed to be a dangerous kid, what with his allegedly throwing grenades at U.S. troops and all, but the information the government has to prove this was obtained ... extracted ... during torture by the Afghans.  Jawad grew up in custody. Military prosecutors couldn't make a case during the Bush Administration, and they weren't able to make a case during the Obama administration. Two weeks ago, the Obama administration conceded this.... but indicated that they weren't ready to let him go.  

Under current federal law, and in keeping with the Supreme Court's guidance on detainees, the government's concession that Jawad was detained unlawfully should be the end of it -- the guy should be freed. Afghanistan wants to take Jawad in, and Jawad seems to want to go to Afghanistan. 

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Jul 30 2009, 1:09PM

Driving While Black

As President Obama meets with Henry Louis Gates, Jr. and Sgt. James Crowley at the White House today for a beer, James Warren parses the results of that racial profiling bill Obama pushed through the Illinois state legislature (which he mentioned when he first commented on Gates's arrest, last Wednesday). The bill called for a study on race and traffic stops/searches.

Here's Warren on the results:
When the President, the Professor and the Cop sit down to have a beer at the White House tonight, here's an idea for drink coasters: copies of the 2008 Annual Report of Illinois Traffic Stops. It may not be the most riveting reading, but it demonstrates just how murky and open to interpretation matters of race and law enforcement can be, even when systematically analyzed by academics seeking to clear things up.

When he waded into the confrontation between Harvard Professor Henry Louis Gates and Cambridge Police Sergeant James Crowley, President Obama cited his work on racial profiling as an Illinois state senator. But lost in the cable-fueled frenzy of subsequent debate has been any concrete discussion of the actual outcome of Obama's efforts--a 2003 law mandating that the state Department of Transportation catalogue all traffic stops in an attempt to identify and assess racial bias. He was the bill's chief sponsor, and did impressive work crafting consensus among civil libertarians, police, and groups across the political spectrum.

After five years of data collection--initially overseen by Northwestern University and now by the University of Illinois at Chicago's Center for Research in Law and Justice - there are plenty of statistics for study. But how to interpret those statistics is less than clear. It's sort of like trying to discern what exactly happened at the Gates home in Cambridge...
Read the full story here.

Jul 30 2009, 11:58AM

Panicking About Obesity Panic: A Response to Megan McArdle

Megan McArdle is on a tear about health care and obesity of late, castigating the nanny-staters and green eyeshaders for their moral hectoring. 

The other major reason that I am against national health care is the increasing license it gives elites to wrap their claws around every aspect of everyone's life. Look at the uptick in stories on obesity in the context of health care reform. Fat people are a problem! They're killing themselves, and our budget! We must stop them! And what if people won't do it voluntarily? Because let's face it, so far, they won't. Making information, or fresh vegetables, available, hasn't worked--every intervention you can imagine on the voluntary front, and several involuntary ones, has already been tried either in supermarkets or public schools. Americans are getting fat because they're eating fattening foods, and not exercising. How far are we willing to go beyond calorie labelling on menus to get people to slim down? 

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Jul 30 2009, 11:49AM

The Politics Of Beer

The folksy charm of President Obama's beer diplomacy does not resonate, apparently, with the group Pray at the Pump, which will be protesting Obama's choice of beverage today when he meets with Henry Louis Gates, Jr. and Sgt. James Crowley at the White House. (During the summer of 2008, the group organized prayers for lower gas prices at gas stations around the country.) Earlier this week, Daily Show "Senior Black Correspondent" Larry Wilmore said, "Alcohol...that'll end well. Hey, Obama, booze isn't how you resolve a racial incident, it's how you start one." MSNBC's Domenico Montenaro wondered why they're not drinking Sam Adams; NBC called it "what may be the most anticipated beer ever." Too bad there aren't any polls on it...wait, SFGate's Zennie62 took one online ("other" was the preferred brew, beating out Pabst, Budweiser, Miller, and Sapporo). Is Obama's "beer diplomacy" too folksy, or is it an appropriate means to diffuse the tension he waded into during his primetime press conference? Does beer send the wrong message? If they have too many, will things get testy? Out of a shared hope for the future, we can all cross our fingers that another beer, someday, will be at least equally anticipated.

Jul 30 2009, 9:28AM

August, 2009 And The Wily, Humbled Barack Obama

For Barack Obama, the end of the End of History is here. Since his election, the President has hovered above the rest of our political institutions, the content of his own policies, the Congress, and the fundamental geo-demographic parity that aggressively pulls popular politicians down and unpopular politicians up. As First Read notes, Obama is now as popular as he was on the eve of the election, which, you'll recall, was popular enough. All American presidents of recent memory, with the possible exception of Jimmy Carter, tend to think magically about their place in the world. In many ways, Obama was elected at the moment when Americans began to see the consequences of having blindly lived through an age of exceptionalism and excess: excess consumption, excess (and ungrounded) foreign policy imperialism, excess hubris and confidence. Obama exuded a confident humility and restraint. He quoted Reinhold Neibuhr and seemed to promise that, under his administration, America would no longer try to manage history.

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Jul 30 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: Better Host--Palin, Limbaugh or Huckabee?

As Sarah Palin weighs a career in media, we ask: would she be a better radio/TV host than Mike Huckabee? Or, for that matter, than Rush Limbaugh? Would you watch/listen?

Jul 29 2009, 7:00PM

The Day In Politics, 7/29

Today, we learned that people think health care reform will benefit the nation, but hurt them individually; Sarah Palin is weighing a foray into syndicated radio; Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus gave an optimistic prediction on his committee's health reform negotiations; and a food safety bill was defeated.

We also wondered if Washington has the political will to reform health care; the fading of Iraq from political discussion; what a deal with four Blue Dogs means for health care; and what to watch in the health care debate.

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Jul 29 2009, 5:50PM

The Invisible Primary, 7/29

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Sarah Palin might take to radio; The Daily Show debuted a new segment--"GOP 2012: What Are You Doing To Help Mitt Romney?"; Tim Pawlenty waded into health care and took a shot at Mitt Romney's reforms in Massachusetts; and a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll showed Palin, Romney, and Mike Huckabee as the GOP's 2012 frontrunners, with Romney in the lead.

Jul 29 2009, 5:05PM

Food Safety Fail

With all the talk of how we eat--from Michael Pollan's bestsellers to Michelle Obama's victory garden to the Food channel here at The Atlantic--it's worth noting that Congress missed an opportunity today to pass a law that would strengthen food safety, at least according to the bill's supporters. The Food Safety Enhancement Act went down to defeat this afternoon, mostly because of Republican voters but also an odd coalition of conservative and liberal Democrats.

The website Gastronomalies notes that the penalties for violations of existing food safety laws would have been upped considerably under the bill. The downside of the measure was that it did nothing to regulate some of the more gruesome practices of factory farms--stun baths, chickens so fattened and immobilized they have heart attacks, cows in their own feces, and all the other horror messes documented in the film Food Inc and books like Fast Food Nation.

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Jul 29 2009, 4:35PM

Baucus Optimistic

To hear Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-MT) talk about it, his committee's health reform plan sounds pretty good. A deal is still being negotiated among Baucus, Ranking Member Chuck Grassley (R-IA), and committee members Kent Conrad (D-ND), Jeff Bingaman (D-NM), Olympia Snowe (R-ME), and Mike Enxi (R-WY); today, Baucus said the bill will cover 95 percent of Americans by 2015, cost less than $900 billion over ten years, and reduce the federal deficit in the 10th year. (To put the cost into perspective, the deal struck with Blue Dogs on the House Energy and Commerce Committee today brought the pricetag of that plan under $1 tillion.) Matthew Yglesias says this sounds "magical." But it may lack one significant dimension--a public option--as Baucus et al are considering Conrad's proposal for member-owned, co-op health insurance plans, which would stand in for the public option touted by Obama, both in expanding coverage to more Americans and in the economic equation of driving private insurance premiums down through competition. One worry is that, without a strong public option, the cost of insurance and care for individuals won't go down...but Baucus has painted a more optimistic picture of access expansion and cost to government.

Jul 29 2009, 2:45PM

What to Watch in the Health Care Debate

Amidst all the crazy health care negotiations, one thing to keep your eye on is this: Will the Senate Finance Committee come to dominate the process. Multiple congressional committees are working on health care, all with their own ideas. But the Senate Finance Committee is probably the most important to watch because its chairman, Max Baucus, the Montana Democrat, has vowed to produce a bipartisan bill. Other bills incorporate Republican amendments but that's not quite the same thing. Anyway, I bring all this up today because Baucus announced this afternoon that they have a bill that keeps the cost under $1 trillion and is all paid for--mostly through Medicare cuts. It eschews the so-called public option that Democrats and the administration consider so essential to reducing costs and getting insurance to the uninsured.

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Jul 29 2009, 2:23PM

Energy And Commerce Deal: What It Means For Health Care

Blue Dogs on the House Energy and Commerce Committee have reportedly reached a deal with Chairman Henry Waxman (D-CA) on health care reform that will allow legislation to pass the committee before August recess begins on Friday. There will be no vote on health care in the full chamber before recess,a s part of the deal--but all parts of the three-committee House bill will be complete one Energy and Commerce passes its portion.

The committee has made no formal announcement of the deal yet; it has announced, however, that it will meet at 4 p.m. today to resume consideration of the bill.

So what does this mean for the chances of health care reform? It's progress, and it breathes some life into the reform initiative that has, at times, appeared doomed--progress with the fiscally conservative Democrats who, at this point, represent the prime obstacle. The stalled committee negotiations are stalled no longer; reformers can rejoice.

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Jul 29 2009, 11:52AM

The Irrelevance of Iraq

While traveling in Turkey this morning, Defense Secretary Robert Gates suggested that Iraq troop withdrawal could be accelerated. Some 5,000 American troops could come home because violence levels in the country were generally down and Iraqi security forces were doing well on their own. Two brigades, or about 10,000 troops, are to be withdrawn from Iraq by this year and Gates said it was possible one more brigade, or 5,000 troops, could come home, too. What's amazing is how little this orderly withdrawal seems to be benefiting the Obama administration. Of course, with an economy still in turmoil and a renewed commitment to Afghanistan and a push for universal health care, the fate of 5,000 troops coming home early is bound to get lost in the shuffle. Still, this is a case where the administration is doing what it said it would do and it's all going pretty well--not withstanding the spasms of violence that continue to plague Iraq.

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Jul 29 2009, 11:15AM

People Think Health Care Reform Will Hurt Them

This is bad news for the Democratic reform effort: Gallup reports today that, according to its latest polling, more Americans than not think health care reform will hurt their own medical care and make it more expensive...though they think it will improve quality and access nationally.
gallup health care costs 7-29.gif

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Jul 29 2009, 10:29AM

Palin To Hit The Airwaves?

Inside Radio reported yesterday that Sarah Palin's camp is exploring the syndication potential of the ex-Governor of Alaska. While it is difficult to imagine Palin succeeding across airwaves given that her speaking style--some call it incoherence--draws much criticism, a national radio show could serve as a potent platform for spreading her views and realizing her resignation-speech mission of effecting "positive change outside government."

The article notes that it will be "an ironic twist" if Palin takes to the mic because of her negative opinion of media. But this "irony" is typical Palin operation. Indeed, the same woman who fought a public battle with Letterman and told the media to "quit makin' things up" in her farewell speech once said in a 2008 interview that Hillary Clinton should avoid anything that could be a "perceived whine" when discussing her media coverage.

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Jul 29 2009, 10:15AM

The Will To Get Health Care Done

Matt Tiabbi offers a skeptical (or realist?) view of why health care reform is stalling:
The reason a real health-care bill is not going to get passed is simple: because nobody in Washington really wants it. There is insufficient political will to get it done. It doesn't matter that it's an urgent national calamity, that it is plainly obvious to anyone with an IQ over 8 that our system could not possibly be worse and needs to be fixed very soon, and that, moreover, the only people opposing a real reform bill are a pitifully small number of executives in the insurance industry who stand to lose the chance for a fifth summer house if this thing passes.
We should note that it's not just a small number of industry execs opposing this bill: America's Health Insurance Plans has backed the overall reform project and is now running ads calling for a "bipartisan" plan...which Democrats may need anyway to get the moderate votes from their own party members in the Senate. Industry players are by and large on board with reform; they'll flip and go all-out against it if Congress comes up with a plan that's truly distasteful to them, beyond expectations...but that hasn't happened yet.

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Jul 29 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: Is Taxing Insurers The Answer?

Democrats in the House are reportedly warming up to the idea of taxing providers of "gold-plated" insurance plans. Is this the answer that will get health care passed through Congress?

Jul 28 2009, 3:53PM

Does Obama Have An Israel Problem?

I'm not quite sure what to make of the plea from Israeli commentators for President Obama's attention, but it has occurred to me that, given the geopolitical priorities of the moment, it might not be all that upsetting to members of the National Security Council -- or to President Obama -- that Israelis perceive that the President is giving them the short end of the stick -- and that Israel is vocally complaining about the slight via the public protests. 

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Jul 28 2009, 3:32PM

2012 Iowa Caucuses On Saturday? Maybe....

The Des Moines Register's Tom Beaumont reports that Democrats and Republicans in Iowa have agreed to hold the state's 2010 caucuses on a Saturday, breaking with a long-term tradition where caucuses were held on Tuesday evenings.  2010 isn't a presidential year, you say... Well, yes: for Iowans, the caucuses aren't just a feature of presidential races. They're crucial parts of state legislative elections.  The basic theory behind the shift to Saturday is that more people will participate -- more people of more types. In some ways, given the mammoth turnout operation that Barack Obama's Iowa team used to diversify the 2008 precinct caucuses, maybe a move to Saturday wasn't necessary. But Obama's not going to be able to drive turnout like that again. The institutional resistence to change has been weakened by his success -- and by dedicated supporters of Hillary Clinton's, who believe that her voter type -- white, working class -- just wouldn't turn out after a long day of work on Tuesday night, giving professional and college-town liberals an advantage.  As Beaumont writes, 2010 will be a "great experiment."   

Jul 28 2009, 1:30PM

An End To The Birther Establishment? Republicans Vote "Yes" On Obama's Hawaiian Heritage

The birther movement--the class of right-wingers who suspect President Obama was born abroad and is thus ineligible to be president--has drawn lots of attention in political media in the past few weeks, and a prime reason for this is the notion that establishment Republicans might actually heed the conspiracy cries. Rush Limbaugh fashioned himself as a birther, as Marc pointed out; Rep. Michael Castle (R-DE), of moderate policies and mild-mannered demeanor, was hectored by birthers at a town-hall meeting. The Castle video makes birthers look like a vocal, terrifying segment of the GOP base, able to shout down an elected moderate and potentially to rile other conservatives and turn out votes on election day.

Should the GOP take the birthers seriously? Do they already? It's the source from which the birther movement draws its import.

Well, last night most House Republicans voted "yea" to a resolution honoring the 50th anniversary of Hawaiian statehood, which included language recognizing Hawaii as Obama's place of birth.

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Jul 28 2009, 9:33AM

Health Care Reform And Obesity Prevention

In a keynote address to researchers and public health officials this morning, Health and Human Services secretary Kathleen Sebelius promised that she and President Obama "are committed to delivering a health care system that provides Americans with better quality and lower costs. And fighting obesity is at the heart of both of those goals."   Someone might want to let Congress know that. There are very few targeted anti-obesity programs in the House and Senate drafts released so far. And promised changes to the delivery mechanisms of health care have yet to materialize. Here is what (probably) will be done: insurers have the ability to raise premiums on the basis of pre-existing conditions on obesity.

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Jul 27 2009, 4:20PM

The Health Care Push: Grassroots Gear Up For Recess

When Congress leaves Washington, DC at the end of the week for a month-long August recess, the push for health care reform will follow.

For months, President Obama and his Democratic supporters have lobbied for an overhaul; in August, Obama will continue his push, but he will be joined by liberal activists who are planning rallies, door-to-door canvasses, and events aimed at swing senators, all taking place out in the states and organized to apply pressure to senators as they connoiter with constituents and seek feedback on a range of issues.

August will usher in a barrage of organized grassroots (or Astroturfed--whatever you want to call it) activity both for and against Obama's reform push. The conservative group FreedomWorks, for instance--which had a hand in facilitating the April 15 tea parties--will encourage its members to visit Senate offices and show up at town-hall meetings held by Democratic lawmakers, armed with critical questions about Obama's health reform push.

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Jul 27 2009, 2:38PM

The (Sort Of) Good News About Obesity

Believe it or not, the growth rates of American obesity may be leveling off. That's according to a series of recent studies of various populations, and this fact was noted today by virtually every presenter.  But as one researcher put it today, taking joy at that leveling off is like taking joy on the fact that your town is only two thirds underwater and the rate of rising water is slowing.   Among some populations, the rate isn't slowing: among African American women, particularly girls, and among Hispanics, and among Native Americans, and among poorer Americans. So -- basically -- the upsurge in elite attention paid to obesity and some of the state-based policy interventions over the past few years seem to be effective crosspressure for whites, and for people with access to the material resources to pay attention to effective weight loss strategies. 

Jul 27 2009, 2:15PM

Tweet Your Senator, With The Democratic Party's Help

The latest advancement in Twitterized politics: Organizing for America has created a page that will help visitors tweet at their senators (OFA recommends you ask for a "yes" vote on health care reform). Enter a zip code, click "tweet," and the site opens up a Twitter page with a pre-fab health care tweet all set to go, including hash tags that let OFA trace all the tweets published through its service.

For instance: "To @SenatorCollins: Please pass health insurance reform this year http://bit.ly/3133JC #hc09 #ME #04101"

Since such tweets are visible when users search for a senator's Twitter account, it's more traceable and public than calls to a member's office. Formally, it's like clicking to send a pre-written op-ed to a local paper. Senators not on Twitter are immune.

Jul 27 2009, 12:33PM

The Obama Administration And A Soda Tax

As he discussed the efficacy of a tax on soda today, CDC chairman Tom Freiden was quick to point out that he was not endorsing the policy as a member of the administration. "I'm just presenting the science," he says.  In his opinion, any intervention that reduces the price of healthy foods and increases the price of unhealthy foods "would be effective."  The challenge, as he noted, is political and administrative. It's easy to mock a soda tax as being an example of nanny state government, and politicians don't seem interested in exploring what it would really entail. An ad valorem-type tax would produce people to cheaper items in bulk, which won't change consumption habits. A tax per ounce on sugar will probably decrease sugar consumption. 

Jul 27 2009, 12:01PM

Obama On China, Human Rights

Chinese human rights violations have continued to be for the Obama administration, as they have been in the past, a sticky issue. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton raised it in February with the Chinese, but made it clear that human rights can't interfere with other issues like the global financial crisis, climate change, and North Korea.

It's widely believed that the nation of 1.3 billion is a human rights abuser, in Tibet and elsewhere (see the Washington Post's coverage of jailed/disappeared protestors leading up to and during the 2008 Olympics in Beijing), but Washington has been tentative to broach the subject, for obvious strategic reasons.

President Obama seemed more willing to talk about it today as he opened the U.S./China Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Washington, attended by Clinton, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan, and Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo. Here's how Obama raised the human rights issue in his remarks:

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Jul 27 2009, 11:07AM

The New Obesity Scare Statistics

The policy highlights of this Weight of the Nation conference are designed to scare people in power. And since everyone in Washington is obsessed with cost, the big news out of the conference this morning is the latest estimate of obesity's direct costs from obesity cost guru Eric Finklestein  $147 billion per year. His calculations are exacting, although it is extremely difficult in reality to make such a snapshot estimate of something so complicated as obesity. This is one reason why researchers in the field tend to focus on suffering and disparities within populations, rather than aggregate cost. But policy-makers take their cues from numbers, and the CDC has an agenda to sell too. That's not necessarily a bad thing, given the problem at hand, but it's an example of how it is impossible to separate science and values.

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Jul 27 2009, 10:42AM

Bill Clinton Chides Reliance On CBO Scoring

Former President Bill Clinton, himself a victim of an errant Congressional Budget Office score or two, implied today that the agency wasn't connected enough to the real world to know whether programs would save money or not. Speaking a few days after the CBO estimated that the White House's latest "gamechanger," an independent Medicare Advisory Commission to set prices, would save little money over 10 years, Clinton urged policy-makers -- and here he means Democrats -- to not accept the CBO's scores without adding a dollop of common sense. " I recognize that if you're in that budget office, you've got to project the future," Clinton said. But certain programs would realize savings "regardless of whether the mathematical rules they are now up with will prove it or not." He said that those with a stake in changing the system "almost always get the short end of the stick" when it comes to budget projections. "In Washington, we strain a lot of gnats while we''re swallowing camels."  Lost in the debate about how much health care reform will cost, Clinton said, is the debate about whether the reforms will work. (I took this to be an implicit criticism of Blue Dog Democrats who focus near-obsessively with the impact of health reform on the deficit and of committee chairs who have imbued the CBO with near mystical powers.) 

Jul 27 2009, 10:32AM

When The Birthers Take Over

At his Atlantic Correspondents blog, Erik Tarloff poses the birther movement--the small sect of GOP backers who believe President Obama's U.S. birth certificate to be inauthentic--as a danger to the country. The GOP will take back control of Washington at some point, Tarloff says, and if they're listening to the birthers when they do, it'll mean trouble:
The respectable, responsible wing of the Republican Party, the wing that for decades thought it could use its crazies but still control them, has been unhorsed. The crazies are in the saddle...

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Jul 27 2009, 7:48AM

Obesity Politics And The Weight Of The Nation

I don't know quite what to call it. "Food addiction" is a little off, because we are compelled to eat several times a day and the obsessive component of most addictions is often absent.  Dr. David Kessler, the former FDA commissioner, borrows from the language of behavioral science. We aren't addicted, he says. We're conditioned. We respond to the most salient stimuli. And food industry, from the growers of corn to the chemists who invented molecular gastronomy, to the food stylists who know how to enhance the physical attractiveness of a hamburger, is the one doing the conditioning. Kessler accuses the food industry of figuring out how to make bad, cheap food addictive.

I was thinking about Kessler's book, which is currently the talk of the weight-loss crowd, on the morning that Centers for Disease Control hosts its first ever Weight of the Nation Conference on obesity. I'll be blogging from that conference over of the next few days as I gather final string for a magazine article about the politics of weight and obesity.

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Jul 27 2009, 6:20AM

The Most Trusted Brand In Government

According to Gallup, the Centers for Disease Control, which is hosting today's Weight of the Nation conference on obesity, is the government agency most trusted by the American people. 61% say the CDC is doing an "excellent job." NASA and the FBI also get top marks.  The agency with the worst rep: the Federal Reserve Board, which gets 30% positive marks.  The head of the CDC, Dr. Thomas Freiden, gives the opening keynote this morning. I'll be interviewing him later in the day.

Jul 26 2009, 11:46AM

The Sunday Shows In Five Bullet Points

Did you miss the Sunday Shows?  Here's all you need to know, in five bullet points:

1. On Meet the Press, Sec. State Hillary Clinton went out of her way to praise China's efforts to contain the DPRK's threat. Clinton said the US wants DPRK to "come back to the table" but won't "reward them for .. half measures."

2. On Face the Nation, Rep. Jim Cooper (D-TN) all but begged the White House to get more involved in the health care negotiations on Capitol Hill. He said he would vote against the House bill as currently constituted. He said that a surtax on so-called "Cadillac" insurance plans might be something that his Blue Dog pound might be able to support. He also praise-checked the Wyden/Bennett health care bill.   Quote:

"The White House needs to assert more authority," ... "I'll be relieved when they take over the marketing of this, because Congress has done a terrible job"
3. On This Week, Sen. Kent Conrad said that the Senate did not have 60 votes to pass a health care bill.  On Face, White House senior adviser David Axelrod said that artificially imposed deadlines (like, um, the president's) no longer mattered, and that he remained confident that Obama would sign into a law a reform package worthy of the name by the end of the year. He used the quintessential Axelrodian phrase "intriguing" to describe an excise tax on expensive health insurance plans.  (The White House floated the idea that Ax would say this; one hand washed the other.) Speaker Nancy Pelosi said that she had enough votes, right now, to get an aye vote on health reform. On Fox News Sunday, WH spoksman Robert Gibbs said that Democrats are "80%" there on the way to an agreement.

4. No one seemed to care about Sarah Palin.

5.  Clinton, on Russia and VP Biden's comment that Russia is inherently weak and will yield to US prerogatives:  "We want a strong, peaceful and prosperous Russia" and that the relationship had begun to be reset. Clinton said she was Obama's chief adviser on foreign policy, and that it was her idea to ask special envoys to serve as principal negotiators in certain regions. (She namechecked William Seward, y'all!)

Jul 24 2009, 6:02PM

Is The White House Better Off Without A Plan On Health Care?

Congress's August recess is getting closer by the day, and Democrats still don't have a finalized health reform package that would pass muster in the Senate. It's being cast as the first major defeat for President Obama; observers have wondered whether his blown August deadline will harm the chances of getting reform at all.

As bipartisan negotiations in the Senate Finance Committee--which has now become the center of the reform process--have failed to produce a bill, there has been much consternation. Heading toward recess, Obama is without a detailed, solidified plan.

But this might actually be a good thing for the president.

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Jul 24 2009, 5:46PM

Master Of The Senate Mastered The Art Of The Kill, Too

News of the day: Waxman says he'll go around Blue Dogs if they don't negotiate; Ross says negotiations are over.

A delay in the House is tough, given the energy previous exhibited by that body this year. Think a bit about the Senate, Lyndon B. Johnson famously twisted the arms of his Senate colleagues to pass legislation. That's the CW takeway from his term as majority leader. But if you've taken the time to read your Robert Caro, you'll know that the corollary to the progressive arm-twisting was Johnson's mastery of the Senate rules to block legislation he didn't want. What was his favorite tactic? Delay. Delay in the Senate kills. The saucer goes cold.   Committees, hearings, negotiations, reports, those were his methods of slowly bleeding to death bills instead of outright blocking them. One you've slowed things down, it's hard to speed them back up.  That ought to be a cause for anxiety for those who want health care reform passed.

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Jul 24 2009, 3:22PM

The President's Regret

Insofar as racial reconciliation goes, the promise of Barack Obama was that he'd be the guy who could bring warring factions to the same table, over a beer, and get them to understand each other.

If the election of President Obama momentarily defused ideological tensions in America, after six months of governing, they've resurfaced. Like the left and President Bush, the right in American has depersonalized Obama to the point where everything he does is wrong; that the only way to demonstrate this is to position yourself in complete opposition to wherever he is.  This frustrating yin-yang politics is one reason for the lack of faith in our political institutions. Perhaps it was naive for Obama to expect that it would be otherwise.

This morning, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs laughed at the notion that the president had any intention of apologizing to Sgt. Crowley or further commenting on the situation in Cambridge. One would assume that Mr. Gibbs's confidence came from a chat with the President himself. It has been easy to deflect responsibility onto the press. On Tuesday, Obama responded to a question from the Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet as if Sweet was still chasing Obama around Springfield. He responded as a friend of Gates's; he responded in the context of a media environment that accepted Gates's narrative.   This was catnip to Republican ideologues, who astutely turned up the volume, -- hey, he hates cops! and to the media, who instantly created sides -- kind of like turning a circle into a square.

The last thing the President wanted was to provoke a debate about race that enhances the polarization. He was careful to say that he did not know whether race had played a role, but you'd be forgiven if you kinda thought that he did kinda think the answer the was that it. His original statement was prodding: come on, guys. We still DO this sort of thing in America? A Harvard professor gets arrested for being mouthy at a cop inside his own house? 

Yesterday, Obama's back was still up. He wasn't going to apologize. The media and the right was making this story into something that it clearly wasn't -- Obama versus the cops -- and he had no intention of further feeding the frenzy.

There was a practical reason and a personal reason for backing down and delivering what amounts to a personal apology to a citizen -- a presidential bill of attainder -- a lose-face-to-save-faith gesture that is quite uncommon for politicians or people in public life.  Practically, it did distract the press corps; the president's bully pulpit power relies on the media at least being attentive to presidential messaging.

Personally, I think that once Obama saw how quickly the narrative of this complex story hardened into an intractable "racist/abuse of power cop" v "critics hate law and order" tale, his inner drive for reconciliation and consensus -- a drive that may be getting him into trouble on health care -- kicked in. I do know what some White House officials were worried that the public debate had taken on some dangerous overtones and were quietly arguing internally for a presidential clamp-down.

Obama may well have changed his mind: perhaps Gates misunderstood the cop as much as the cop seemed to misunderstand Gates.  Or -- and here is what I think Obama is getting at -- perhaps the events themselves ought to be left alone. Endless debates about race and power with reference to that one situation are going to be, well, endless. Crowley and Gates are reasonable, accomplished citizens who were reacting to a stressful situation full of unknowns.  Let that be -- and find a "teachable moment."

Interestingly, these types of Obama moments are exactly why the hard left tends to be suspicious of Obama's inner motives -- why would the President NOT use this teachable moment to excoriate the cops for racial profiling or excessive power, they ask -- and why the hard right has come to completely dislike the president -- and why the center -- the broad left, right and center-center -- is still entranced by the guy, even if they do have some questions about his policies.

Jul 24 2009, 3:09PM

A Presidential Mea Culpa To Sgt. Crowley

And a promise to bring him and Professor Gates to the White House for a beer. Politically, the beer promise... it's kind of a killer, no? (Killer = political slam dunk.)

THE PRESIDENT:  Hey, it's a cameo appearance.  Sit down, sit down.  I need to help Gibbs out a little bit here.

I wanted to address you guys directly because over the last day and a half obviously there's been all sorts of controversy around the incident that happened in Cambridge with Professor Gates and the police department there.

I actually just had a conversation with Sergeant Jim Crowley, the officer involved.  And I have to tell you that as I said yesterday, my impression of him was that he was a outstanding police officer and a good man, and that was confirmed in the phone conversation -- and I told him that.

 And because this has been ratcheting up -- and I obviously helped to contribute ratcheting it up -- I want to make clear that in my choice of words I think I unfortunately gave an impression that I was maligning the Cambridge Police Department or Sergeant Crowley specifically -- and I could have calibrated those words differently.  And I told this to Sergeant Crowley.

 

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Jul 24 2009, 2:51PM

The Mormons: The Most Conservative Religious Group In America

That's according to a new report from Pew, released today and based on data from the group's 2007 U.S. Religious Landscape Survey.

More Mormons (60 percent) identify themselves as conservatives than any other religious group; they also lead every other group in GOP party identification (at 65 percent)--much higher than the general population in both categories. Here are a few of Pew's charts to break it down:

Pew Mormons ideology.gif

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Jul 24 2009, 12:17PM

Conservatives Pressure Grassley On Health Care

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), the top Republican on the health-care-immersed Senate Finance Committee, has been working as actively with Democrats on health care as any other Republican on Capitol Hill--and that's just what the conservative American Future Fund doesn't like about him.

The organization, an Iowa-based conservative/free-market advocacy group, is pressuring Grassley to oppose Democrat-led health reform efforts as Congress's August recess nears, asking its supporters to call or e-mail Grassley's office.

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Jul 24 2009, 10:56AM

Emanuel Doesn't Mind GOP's Politics On Health Care

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) became the face of "the party of no" to Democrats this week when President Obama called him out for professing that a defeat of health care reform would "break" the new president; Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK) made lesser news by proclaiming that blocking health reform would mean a "huge gain" for Republicans in 2010. The narrative for the White House, as August recess approaches, is that Republicans are more interested in their own political gains than in fixing the nation's health care system, thereby fighting to preserve a status quo that's unsustainable and is harming people every day.

That narrative aside, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel doesn't mind the comments of DeMint and Inhofe--so he told NPR this morning.

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Jul 24 2009, 10:09AM

A $3 Million Obama Fundraiser: Menu And Activities

At his Atlantic Correspondents blog, James Warren details the $15,000-a-ticket fundraiser President Obama attended yesterday at a home on Chicago's North Side, where Obama reportedly raked in about $3 million. Baseball highlights were watched, and allegedly unimaginative food (which sounded pretty good to me) was eaten:
...Well, at the North Side home of Penny Pritzker, a close Obama chum and super fundraiser, there was a large, if culinarily unimaginative, early-evening buffet dinner, according to resourceful Mike Flannery, a reporter for Chicago's WBBM-TV and the best political journalist in town.

A highly-placed kitchen source told Mike that the buffet for the 100 attendees included rack of lamb, beef tenderloin; Ahi tuna; crab cakes; mushroom tart; lobster and shrimp jambalaya; flat breads with chutney and goat cheese; and rice crackers and seaweed salad.

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Jul 24 2009, 6:41AM

Question Of The Day: Obama, Gates, And Race

Did President Obama speak too soon about Henry Louis Gates, Jr.'s arrest? Is it fair to say the officer acted "stupidly," and can we assume that race played a part?

Jul 23 2009, 7:00PM

The Day In Politics, 7/23

Today, we learned that DNI Dennis Blair says he's concentrated on getting along with Congress; the world likes President Obama's America more than President Bush's, but Muslims remain skeptical; Obama is close to naming a cybersecurity director, but the name might be a surprise; Education Secretary Arne Duncan wants to turn No Child Left Behind on its head; the NRCC hit Massachusetts Dems with Obama's comments on Hentry Louis Gates, Jr.; and the NRSC is raffling off Kindles.

We also considered whether the Gates saga would dominate the news cycle; the juicy bits of a Valerie Jarrett profile; a Jennifer Aniston theory of Obamaism; how Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will spend his recess; agnosticism on the Gates story; some personal experiences with the Cambridge Cops; and two health care predictions.

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Jul 23 2009, 5:18PM

The Invisible Primary 7/23

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Sarah Palin said a report that her legal defense fund may have violated ethics laws was "misguided" and "factually in error"; Tim Pawlenty and Rick Perry visited troops in both Iraq and Afghanistan this week with a delegation of governors; and Mike Huckabee's HuckPAC is "restructuring."

Jul 23 2009, 4:33PM

Two Brief Predictions About Health Care

1. Sen. Harry Reid's decision will generate an intense negative reaction among activist Democrats and liberals. Bad Harry, weak Harry.  But I suspect that the ratcheting down of pressure will be somewhat of a relief to the Finance Committee negotiators. Less pressure means more time to think -- and to haggle civilly, as opposed to haggling with a looming deadline.

2. The journalistic schema heading into the weekend will be that unless Obama gets a "gamechanger," health care reform is dead. Props to the journalist who manages to at least modify this metaphor and posits that Obama needs to get inside his opponents' OODA loop. I don't agree with this schema, but the opposite schema -- this is a deceptively good development for the Democrats -- is equally as intellectually unsatisfying.

Jul 23 2009, 4:03PM

The Cambridge Cops, Police Power, And Me

In college, some of my friends majored in history. Others braved the pre-med gauntlet.  I graduated in 2001 with a degree in something or other, but my concentration was really in what you might call police scanner science. For three years, I covered the police beat for the Harvard Crimson, which was -- is -- the city of Cambridge's only breakfast table daily. When my friends would be out studying or dating, I'd be chasing cops. If the crime happened to be near Harvard's campus, I'd get there before they would, which occasionally proved disconcerting.

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Jul 23 2009, 4:02PM

Could Obama Become The Lindsay Lohan Of Presidents?

Recently Politico discussed how Americans are "getting a big dose of President Obama." In exploring Obama's constant interfaces with the press and the public--whether through prime-time news conferences, YouTube videos, or town-halls--the article notes that Obama thus far has given more of his time to the public than any recent president by this point in the term.

And for a nation with a 140-character attention span, this might be a bad thing. Though Obama's accessibility in our instant-news, social media age is perhaps a necessity, it comes with a price: potential for Obama-fatigue.

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Jul 23 2009, 3:53PM

No Political Contribution Necessary

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is raffling off a Kindle to donors (no purchase or contribution necessary, void where prohibited). Here's the deftly worded pitch, from NRSC Chairman Sen. John Cornyn, in a fundraising email that went out today: 

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Jul 23 2009, 3:27PM

Gates Arrest: Of What Can We Be Certain?

At her Atlantic Correspondents blog, Wendy Kaminer shares her agnosticism with the racial implications of the arrest of Henry Louis Gates, Jr., which have become a major topic of discussion today following President Obama's press conference last night:
You have a constitutional right to talk back to a police officer; and whether Skip Gate's account of his arrest or the police version is closer to the truth, it seems clear that Gate's speech rights were violated and his arrest was illegal. Less clear are the officer's motivations for the arrest.  Naturally, the prevailing assumption and apparent, primary source of Gates' outrage is the belief that the officer, James M. Crowley, is a racist; but that ignores the equally plausible possibility that he's simply a bad cop, (or maybe a not-so-bad cop having a very bad day,) who would also have arrested a late middle-aged white guy whom he deemed insufficiently deferential. (If you find this scenario implausible, you never met my father.)...

Jul 23 2009, 2:26PM

HELP + Finance = Harry Reid's Recess

We know how Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is going to spend his recess: he has to figure out how to match the Senate HELP Committee's plans for health insurance reform with what the Senate Finance Committee is willing to pay. The political semiotics seem simple: In announcing that the Senate simply could not come to an agreement before the recess, Reid is acknowledging that the Finance Committee's draft, which is due on the floor before the recess, isn't going to pay for everything the HELP Committee wants. There is nothing subtle about the institutional politics: Reid made this news on the day after the President explicitly defended his timeline and gave what he considered to be the best argument in favor of reform. The message: you didn't help us last night, Mr. President. Reid knows that the evening news stories on health care will lead with Reid's glum announcement, and then cut to a president who they'll say is "struggling" to convey a sense of urgency. Nothing will doom the chances for health care reform more than the perception that health care is doomed.

Jul 23 2009, 2:09PM

Republicans Hit Massachusetts Dems On Obama's Gates/Cops Comment

President Obama's comments on Henry Louis Gates, Jr. last night have sparked some ambivalence and ambiguity. It became the secondary, and, in some cases, the primary headline from last night's event, which was thoroughly about healthcare until those last two minutes, when Lynn Sweet asked Obama what he thought of Gates, the revered Harvard scholar and race relations expert, getting arrested by Cambridge, Massachusetts police for disorderly conduct while trying to jimmy his way into his own house, having forgotten his key.

The Cambridge police "acted stupidly in arresting someone when there was already proof that they were in their own home," Obama said, which became the front page headline on today's Boston Globe. He also joked that he'd "get shot" if he were caught in the same situation at the White House.

Here at the Politics channel, Marc suggested Obama may have to walk back the "stupidly" comment, given that cops might not understand its application to the Cambridge Police Dept. en masse.

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Jul 23 2009, 1:27PM

Duncan On Standards, No Child Left Behind, And Scalping Tickets To An Event With Newt Gingrich

Arne Duncan, the dynamic education secretary plucked by President Obama from the Chicago public school system, doesn't mind giving credit where credit is due.

In an interview with The Atlantic's Bob Cohn at the Aspen Ideas Festival, Duncan says he will always give the Bush administration credit for "shining a spotlight on the achievement gap" in education with No Child Left Behind. "Those differences used to get swept under the rug. That will never happen again, and they deserve enormous credit for that.

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Jul 23 2009, 1:06PM

How Relationships Help Explain Obamanomics

This I learned from the Washington Post interview with Barack Obama: Our president is really into MedPAC! That's the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission, a independent federal agency that advises Congress about issues involving Medicare and private health insurers. Obama says he would like to it expanded and empowered. Is it me, or does Obama suddenly have a thing for empowered, independent agencies?

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Jul 23 2009, 11:32AM

Obama Close To Naming Cybersecurity Coordinator

President Obama will soon name his top cybersecurity aide, industry and government officials say, but the identity of the pick might be a surprise.

One leading candidate was said to be Priscilla Guthrie, currently the chief information officer to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. But she is not in the running for the post, an administration official said. Another would-be candidate is former Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA), a tech-savvy moderate Republican who knows many of the stakeholders. Davis has told administration officials he does not want the job, although he stopped short of ruling himself out of accepting an offer.

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Jul 23 2009, 11:02AM

The (Non-Muslim) World Loves Obama

President Obama is far more popular worldwide than his predecessor, according to an annual Pew Global Attitudes survey of 24 countries, but he hasn't done much to improve relations with a critical global demographic--in fact, the demographic he's most actively courted: Muslims.

Some of the changes in opinion are striking. In 21 of the 24 nations surveyed, an average of 71 percent of respondents had at least some confidence in Obama's handling of world affairs--up from 17 percent for President Bush in 2008 in those same countries. Favorability of the U.S. is up at least 10 points in 11 countries.

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Jul 23 2009, 9:24AM

The DNI On The Cyber Attack And Relations With Congress

Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair took some questions at the end of speech he gave to the Chamber of Commerce yesterday. He was asked about the cyberattack that crippled some government computers over the July 4 weekend. Blair said that the intelligence community hadn't figured out who had conducted it but that the investigation is continuing. Since his audience was a political crowd, I guess you can forgive the person who asked Blair about the "CIA secret assassin program" vis-a-vis congressional relations?

DIRECTOR BLAIR: What I'm finding in my six months in the job is that there are a lot of
legacy issues that we have to work our way through, as we establish a new relationship with the Congress, and this is one of several. But I think what's really important is that we are working with the Congress in a new and I think better way. I find that I've been very clear with the Congress that we will lean on the side of telling them about things. The statute says that we will inform Congress fully and currently of significant intelligence actions, and we take a very broad interpretation of that and tell them about - if there's any doubt in our mind, our default position is, let's tell the Congress about this. They're a partner in this. It's going to be better if we all work together. So what I'm really concentrating on, primarily, is making the new relationship going forward. And we'll sort out these legacy issues, but I think that what most people want and what we're really trying to do is build this new relationship as we go forward, that we can work together as partners so we all make this country safer.

Jul 23 2009, 7:22AM

The Valerie Jarrett Profile: The Juicy Bits

You might not have time to read Robert Draper's 8,000 word profile of President Obama's senior adviser, Valerie Jarrett, although it is well worth a close read.   The New York Times Magazine profile begins with what one might call a Valerie story: picture it. The presidential campaign. 2008.  A world-weary candidate refuses to attend an event that will serve his campaign's strategic interests.  Two heavy hitters are enlisted to change his grumpy mind: Michelle Obama and Valerie Jarrett.  After the jump, the juiciest bits of the article, including Jarrett's role in the campaign and her relationship with Rahm Emanuel.

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Jul 23 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: The Cost, And Benefit, Of Health Care

President Obama says his health care reforms are designed to reduce the deficit and that they won't be shouldered by the middle class. Will that be true when a final bill is produced? In the meantime, will the American people, and moderate members of Congress, trust him?

Jul 23 2009, 5:39AM

Will Skip Gates's Saga Dominate News Coverage?

bglobe.jpg

In Boston, obviously. But the president's response to Lyyn Sweet's question about the weekend's arrest of Skip Gates was given celebrity-death-match treatment by the cable news networks (and probably, though not as of this writing) by the network morning new shows. Race. Class. Crime. Harvard. Now Obama -- the story hits all the trigger points. Obama officials last night conceded that the President might have to clarify his remarks about the "stupidity" of the Cantabrigian police corps. Obama is within his rights to critiize the officer in question, but cops who know little about the story will wonder why he decided to label an entire police department.

Jul 22 2009, 8:19PM

Sacrifice And Change Without Sacrifice And Change

If you missed the president's news conference, you missed the president....

.... speaking from a 30,000 foot perspective: wanting Americans to buy into the notion that health care reform is imperative and won't cause much sacrifice for most Americans. If it doesn't happen, your premiums will go up, deficits will rise, quality will decline. He's arguing that even as Americans accept the status quo and don't want government to get involved, Americans ought to be angry at the status quo.  He insists that government won't dictate medical choices to people and their doctor.  Steve Thomma of Reuters asked the best question:  "Will you promise that health reform will leave medical decisions up to patients and doctors?"  Obama reframed it. "Can I guarantee that there will be no changes to the health delivery system? The answer is no."

In order for health care reform to be worthy of the name, people and their docs will have to use cheaper drugs and take fewer tests. Depending on what type of insurance they have, the insurance companies will enforce this by fiat, or the government will require this by rule.  The persuasive mechanism might be economic.

Obama's argument is that in order for doctors to do better and patients to feel better and to make all of this less expensive, government will have to change the incentive structure. That will allow doctors and patients to make better choices.

.....Lifting up out of the nitty-gritty of congressional negotiations, which are stalled, essentially, on the point of how to pay for about 30% of the cost of reforms -- about $350 billion over ten years. The White House wants Americans to interpret the loud clanging noises coming from Capitol Hill as evidence of progress and momentum; this is the president employing the bandwagon effect. Nothing chills enthusiasm on the Hill like the perception that they've already failed. (The specific point of dispute is how the structure a mechanism to set Medicare reimbursement rates and what power Congress should or shouldn't have to veto an independent agency's recommendations on those rates. )  For those following the debate, the President also suggested that the level that some House Dems want to set as the base for the tax surcharge - 1 million -- is where it will be. And he acknowledged that his August deadline was a pressure mechanism designed to get the legislative machinery moving.

......Trying to maintain a lofty tone -- "I haven't been out there blaming Republicans" -- while attempting to use the Republican GOP stratagem of the week -- kill the bill -- to set himself on the side of reform and Republicans on the side of obstructionism. He name-checks Chuck Grassley as a Republican who has good idea to contribute. He gave credit to Republicans for seeding the idea of an independent commission to set Medicare payments.

.....Putting his name on the bill. The President acknowledged it was his job to get health reform done. He portrayed himself like an editor, waiting for various drafts to come in, and implying that, when (if) the House and Senate go to conference, he will wade in with more specifics.

......Acknowledging that the early drafts of the bills he's seen don't reform the delivery system and don't change incentives for doctors and patients to experience their health care more efficiently. This is a nod to the doctors at the Mayo Clinic, who criticized the House Democratic bill (the tricom bill) for failing to link Medicare payments to the quality of health care, rather than the quantity of health care provided. 

.....Using linguistics to make subtle points: Obama in his opening statement referred to "health insurance reform," which polls better, I presume, that "health care reform." And he did not mention a public insurance option until much later on .

.....Ignoring a valid question about transparency; the reporter gave three good examples of the WH's lack thereof -- TARP being the most expensive -- and Obama simply punted. I suspect this means that he thinks such criticism is simply invalid.

Jul 22 2009, 8:01PM

Presidential News Conference: Liveblog

We're liveblogging the president's news conference tonight. With health care expected to dominate, President Obama will address the nation and the press corps, seeking to make his case as doubt grows along with the consternation of moderate and conservative Democrats.

8:04 President says he wants to talk about how health insurance reform fits into broader economic strategy. (Note: a poll earlier this week showed 85 percent of Americans want Obama to address health care as part of his broader economic plans.)

That's how Obama frames his remarks: starts off by talking about an economy that benefits "those folks at the very top" and "simply wasn't ready to compete in the 21st century."

"Health insurance reform is central to that [economic recovery] effort," Obama says.

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Jul 22 2009, 7:00PM

The Day In Politics, 7/22

Today, we learned that President Obama is bringing frumpy back; House Republicans put out their own message on health care, ahead of Obama's primetime news conference tonight; and Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) is in a dead heat with Republican rival Pat Toomey in the state's 2010 Senate race.

We also considered the backlash against and apology by Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) for using the N-word in recounting another person's use of it; the three things Obama should say about health care; whether health care will be Obama's Waterloo or his Verdun; and the return of Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA) to the national stage.

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Jul 22 2009, 5:35PM

The Invisible Primary, 7/22

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Bobby Jindal penned an op-ed on health care in The Wall Street Journal as part of a media offensive on the issue; a Public Policy Polling automated telephone poll reported that Jindal would carry Louisiana in a race against President Obama; Sarah Palin signed a resolution affirming Alaska's state sovereignty under the 10th Amendment; Newt Gingrich said Republicans should "go for the kill" on health reform; and MinnPost discussed how Tim Pawlenty's environmental record as one of the nation's greener Republicans would play in a national primary.

Jul 22 2009, 4:56PM

Question Of The Day, Answered

Lots of good responses to our Question of the Day today, which was: Democrats are taking swings at the GOP, and Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) in particular, for opposing health care reform. But does the GOP opposition matter? If moderate Democratic votes are what's needed, why the fuss?

From Pineview1997:
Functionally, they are not relevant at all. Regardless of plans they will vote solidly against. I'd be surprised if Obama gets a single Republican vote in either the House or the Senate on any iteration of a health reform plan.

Optically it matters a little bit. Always useful to have a foil. Especially one that is so obviously insipid and unpopular. Honestly, what's easier: explaining and justifying a really complex and expensive program or showing that all the wrong people are against it?

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Jul 22 2009, 4:48PM

Would Specter Run To His Right?

The political climate has changed at home for Sen. Arlen Specter (PA), the Republican-turned-Democrat who represents a crucial swing vote in the Senate: a Quinnipiac poll today shows him virtually tied with Republican rival Pat Toomey, leading 45 percent to 44 percent. Before Specter switched parties in late April, the conservative Toomey was mounting a primary challenge on Specter from the right, and it looked like Specter would go down in primary defeat. And that was part of the reason Specter switched. Once he became a Democrat, Specter instantly crushed Toomey in general election polls of Pennsylvania's total population of likely voters, a more moderate crowd than those who would have decided his fate in a Republican primary. As Quinnipiac notes, he led Toomey 53-33 on May 4. His closest competion then came from the left, in the form of Rep. Joe Sestak, a Democratic candidate who challenged Specter's Democratic credentials.

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Jul 22 2009, 3:11PM

The Return Of Bobby Jindal

The health care debate has brought us a lot of things: industry execs gathered at the White House, town-halls, a national day of service, and a head-on confrontation between President Obama and Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC)...but not to be overlooked is the return of Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R).

Today, Jindal penned an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, the latest in a string of public appearances and speakings out that have brought him back into the national spotlight this week after a long hiatus, during which some concluded that his star in the GOP had fallen.

It's probably no coincidence that the policy-minded Jindal has returned to the stage for what will likely be the most complicated policy debate of Obama's first term. In several national TV appearances this week, Jindal has used his intrinsic wonkiness to espouse small-government philosophy on health care, citing statistics and venturing into the weeds of policy where, in the realm of health reform especially, others fear to tread.

It seems as good a moment as any for Jindal.

Democrats this week have blasted the GOP for practicing political gamesmanship, making a showcase of DeMint and alleging a partisan defeatism by Republicans that's devoid of any constructivity. It's the "party of no" theme, and Democrats have scored their points.

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Jul 22 2009, 2:15PM

A Republican Message On Health Care

With President Obama set to hold a primetime news conference tonight at the White House, here's what House Republicans released today as their latest message on health care--namely, that Obama's reform initiative is "reckless"--in a web video released today:

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Jul 22 2009, 1:40PM

The Three Things Obama Should Say About Health Care

President Barack Obama will hold a prime-time news conference tonight to sell health care reform to Americans, as support for his trillion-dollar measure is wilting. Health reform is a tricky political sell for a couple reasons; 1) Most voters have health care already; 2) It costs more than a trillion dollars on the back of tax increases; 3) Obama doesn't have a strong enough case that a trillion spent today will bend the cost of health care. So what's Obama's pitch? Here -- with graphs! -- are three ideas Obama should put forth and three ways reporters should push back against his arguments.

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Jul 22 2009, 1:15PM

Waterloo Or Verdun?

The Republican Party has found a model to base its restoration upon: the British Army.

Last week Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) said defeating the Democratic health care agenda would be President Obama's "Waterloo," the epic battle that between the British and Germans against the French that ended Napoleon's reign.

But Obama is committed to making this battle his Verdun - a miraculous victory from what looks like certain defeat.

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Jul 22 2009, 11:48AM

Rep. Maloney And The N-Word

Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D), the New York congresswoman who is mounting a primary challenge to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, made headlines this week for using the N-word in recounting a phone call from a Puerto Rican upset with Gillibrand's support for English-only education. (Here's how Maloney was originally quoted in New York publication City Hall, where she quoted the caller's use of the full word: "In fact, I got a call from someone from Puerto Rico, said [Gillibrand] went to Puerto Rico and came out for English-only [education]. And he said, 'It was like saying n--r to a Puerto Rican,'" she said, using the full racial slur. "I don't know--I don't know if that's true or not. I just called. I'm just throwing that out. All of her--well, what does she stand for?")

On her Atlantic Correspondents blog, Wendy Kaminer channels Lenny Bruce and questions both Maloney's apology for repeating the full word and Rev. Al Sharpton's vocal displeasure with her:

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Jul 22 2009, 11:12AM

Bringing Frumpy Back

If he can't calm down chatter surrounding the health care bill, at least President Obama can attempt to silence his fashion critics. When asked in an interview on NBC yesterday about his Major League debut outfit choice at last week's MLB All-Star game, Obama responded by referring to his "fabulous" wife/international fashion icon, stating that, despite his better half's classy J.Crew-cut threads, he's "a little frumpy."

The president then went on a denim defense, admitting that not only does he hate to shop, but "up until a few years ago, I only had four suits.... Those jeans are comfortable. And for those of you who want your president to look great in his tight jeans, I'm sorry. I'm not the guy."

So Scott Schuman won't be promoting the commander-in-chief as a style icon anytime soon--but at least Obama owns up to his fashion short-comings instead of touting himself as a homely soccer dad whilst wearing Armani.

The real issue now: Can you trust a man in mom jeans?

Jul 22 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: Are Republicans Relevant To Health Care?

Democrats are taking swings at the GOP, and Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) in particular, for opposing health care reform. But does the GOP opposition matter? If moderate Democratic votes are what's needed, why the fuss?

Jul 21 2009, 7:00PM

The Day In Politics, 7/21

Today, we learned that Americans trust President Obama to solve the nation's problems less now than in March; former Rep. Bob Barr supported the repeal of his own amendment; and Democrats are seeking to raise money for the health care fight.

We also debated whether Obama needs to define his health reform plan more clearly; from whence Obama's detention authority comes; the message obesity experts are sending in criticizing Obama's surgeon general nominee; the birthers; the plausibility of Ron Paul as a 2012 presidential candidate; and the ins and outs of health care reform.

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Jul 21 2009, 5:23PM

The Invisible Primary, 7/21

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Charlie Crist says he can't support Sonia Sotomayor; an AP headline implies an ethical scandal for Sarah Palin, because she designated the Alaska Fund Trust as her "official" legal defense fund; Mike Huckabee plans to broadcase from East Jerusalem; Bobby Jindal warned against Democrats' health reform plans in an interview with Fox News' Sean Hannity; and Tim Pawlenty will address members of the Republican National Committee July 30 in San Diego; and Eric Cantor said Waterloo isn't "a good way to look at" opposing Democrats' health care reforms.

Jul 21 2009, 3:50PM

Should The GOP Take The Birther Threat Seriously? Rush Does....

That's the thesis of the First Readers of NBC News, after viewing this astonishing clip from a town hall meeting that Rep. Mike Castle held in Delaware for his constituents. What's most notable, to me, at least, is not how scared Castle looked or how passionately the woman argued for Barack Obama's foreign birth.  It was the reaction of the audience, a good portion of which erupted into cheers and youbetchas. Birthers, for the uninitiated, is a term used by the media to ridicule those who believe that the president's Hawaiian birth certificate is fake and that because he was ostensibly born in Kenya, not the United States, he was never eligible to be president in the first place.  To the extent that one can conclusively prove such things in our postmodern age, this claim has been extremely thoroughly debunked. The birther movement may be premised on a fictional belief, but it is savvy: birthers now wear the term "birther" as badge of honor, as if they were a persecuted minority -- which, come to think of it, is one mechanism for solidarity in the face of evidence to the contrary. ("Hitler had the "Untermenschen," Pol Pot had the "Intelligentsia," and now Obama has the "Birther.") The most prominent birthers are Alan Keyes, the former presidential candidate and Obama Senate challenger; Orly Tait, a wonderfully named lawyer from California; Phil Berg, a Democrat; and Michael Reagan, son of Ronald Reagan, and a prominent radio talk show host. This is, at once, a fringe movement and something greater.  It's fringe because no important Republicans believe it, and most are offended by it. It's greater because some fairly prominent local lawmakers are beginning to sign birther petitions.

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Jul 21 2009, 3:22PM

Democrats Look To Raise Money For Health Care

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is trying to rally its support base against GOP attacks on health care reform, asking supporters to donate to a new Emergency Health Care Rapid Response Fund. The DCCC set a goal today, in an email fundraising pitch, of $250,000 by midnight on July 31--the last day before August recess officially starts the following Monday, August 3. The money will be used to respond to GOP attacks on health reform, according to a source--presumably with web videos and the like. The DCCC is asking for contributions of $5 and $10.

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Jul 21 2009, 2:30PM

Obesity Experts Send Wrong Messages About Obesity

ABC News reports that some obesity experts wonder if the president's nominee for surgeon general, Regina Benjamin, cannot effectively perform her job because she is overweight. The experts quoted are, indeed, experts. James Anderson is a well-regarded professor of medicine at the University of Kentucky. He lectures Benjamin: "It's important to walk the walk and not talk the talk. We need role models who are attempting to be leaders for change in health and lifestyle to be role models." The explicit premise is that people who have successfully lost weight are the only people who can give reliable advice on weight loss. That's understandable, although not logical. The implicit premise is kind of insidious: it assumes that Benjamin is grossly overweight, which isn't true; it erases the distinction between obesity and being a few pounds too heavy; and it replicates the harmful cultural assumption that weight loss depends on willpower and choice and has little to do with culture, society, environment or physical space. It is absolutely true that anti-obesity forces lack a national spokesperson who is respected cross-culturally. At the same time, the struggles of Oprah Winfrey, who has access to material resources that most of us do not, much more realistically represent the lives of most Americans who struggle with weight. People who tend to lose weight and keep it off tend to be disproportionately wealthy, white, and have the material resources (like a bike) to struggle successfully against their environment; people who tend to be skinny, naturally, inherit from their parents a predisposition against excess fat storage. That someone like Oprah can be so rich and so unsuccessful demonstrates how terribly difficult and unrealistic the willpower model really is. Role models are important, particularly in the black community, where different social norms about obesity and different community structures (health disparities, lack of access to fresh foods, different (and more negative) views about the future) play a fairly significant role in sustaining and nourishing food addiction and obesity. Benjamin will be quite effective if she uses her role to pay attention to these ecological factors.

Jul 21 2009, 2:19PM

What We Don't Know About Detentions

We don't know a lot about the Obama administration's detention policy, and the panel charged with coming up with a policy appears to know even less, having asked for a six month extension. But there is an urgent issue to attend to: whether the Obama administration needs to go to Congress for fresh detention authority, or whether it will rely on existing authority -- maybe under the 2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force in Afghanistan -- to keep Guantanamo Bay prisoners confined while they await trial -- and some of them confined forever. Peter Finn, writing in the Washington Post, indicates the administration is going to Congress. Josh Gerstein in the Politico says that while they will consult Congress, they may rely on AUMF authority for detention. This isn't an academic distinction. If the administration goes to Congress, it opens up a whole new can of worms and sets the stage for codifying a new executive authority -- one that could allow the president to detain people indefinitely without trial. If, on the other hand, the administration does nothing, Congress might protest and say that its AUMF resolution does not allow the president to hold Guantanamo Bay detainees indefinitely. At some point, the administration will have to answer part of this question -- under what authority can it transfer Gimto detainees to another facility after Gitmo closes? That the president _has_ this authority is unquestioned. But where the authority comes from is an open question.

Jul 21 2009, 2:12PM

Does Obama Need To Be Clearer About Health Reform?

That's what Salon Editor in Chief Joan Walsh suggests today. Walsh says she considers herself a policy wonk but still doesn't quite know what the president is talking about when he talks about health reform. And it's true: as we saw in President Obama's town hall in Annandale, Virginia and in his speech yesterday at Children's Hospital in DC, his primary focus has been the unsustainability of the current system--how fast costs are rising, and how America can't afford not to overhaul the way things are currently done.

Americans seem to agree with him on this, according to a poll released today that indicates 85 percent of Americans want health care reform as part of Obama's overall package of economic fixes. Talking about health care is difficult--it's an extremely complicated arena of policy. But here's Walsh, who suggests Obama should more clearly define the public option he's pushing for:

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Jul 21 2009, 12:00PM

Bob Barr's Conversion

After the House last week passed a repeal of the 1998 Barr Amendment, which blocked the implementation of a ballot-won medical marijuana legalization policy in Washington, DC, Wendy Kaminer points out at her Atlantic Correspondents blog that former Rep. Bob Barr (R-Ga.), now a Libertarian, supported the repeal.

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Jul 21 2009, 10:36AM

Trust Fall

More bad poll news for President Obama today--from a Politico /Public Strategies survey that finds public trust in Obama to identify the right solutions for America's problems has fallen from 66 percent to 54 percent since March. It's worth noting that not too many new problems have developed since March: Iran and North Korea have made the biggest headlines. The nation's problems (e.g., the economic crisis) and Obama's solutions (e.g. the stimulus, his mortgage plan, health care and energy reform) have remained constant. Deficit concerns are not new, but we've continued to hear about them, as government debt has become the principal conservative talking point on Capitol Hill, conservative blogs, and for prominent Republican governors like Sarah Palin (AK) and Rick Perry (TX).

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Jul 21 2009, 9:53AM

Sampling The Sausage: A Health Reform Politics Explainer

1. Getting close to the deadlines -- which were always about concentrating the mind -- observe how health care is no longer a policy debate in Congress; it's now a debate about politics in Congress. Congress has been working on health care reform for 50 years. The Senate has been working on this specific set of reforms since before Obama was inaugurated; it's been the focus of Senate leaders since April. Paying for health reform was always going to be what the postmodernists like to call the site of contest. Getting to 60 in the Senate is now about protecting state industries and protecting fundraisers and protecting perceived electoral vulnerabilities. That's one reason why, behind the scenes, the White House is looking to make deals with Democratic senators. That's one reason why Democrats are thankful that the insurance industry, PhRMA and the AMA aren't spending money to oppose reform. Getting these allies on board may have complicated the process of writing a bill, but in the end, preventing these dogs from barking may be what gets the White House to 60.

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Jul 21 2009, 9:31AM

Pollsters, Put Ron Paul In

The political world can't stop speculating on the next presidential race, but as it continues to daydream about 2012 it should include room for U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R).  Two surveys [here and here] this month of Republican voters sought to size up the potential GOP field but did not include Paul. This is a mistake because Dr. No's philosophy is closer to the Republican mainstream than it was last year when he ran for president.

When the primaries began, Paul's warnings against inflationary money printing, an unaccountable Federal Reserve and an ever-expanding federal government seemed overheated to most Republicans. That was before the Fed printed $1 trillion this spring; the Treasury bought major shares in banks and automakers that are lynchpins in their respective economic sectors, and Democrats announced big plans for health care. 

Now you hear conservatives worried about the Fed and inflation, and railing against the government's quasi-control of private businesses.

Republicans in Congress have been voting more like Paul since the primaries ended, namely on economic policy. First, half of the House GOP and Paul voted against the final version of the bailout authorization last October. Then, every single representative voted with Paul against the stimulus bill this year. (However, Paul and the GOP are still at odds on staying in Iraq and Afghanistan much longer.) 

Furthermore, more than 150 House Republicans are now co-sponsoring Paul's bill to audit the Federal Reserve.

Paul's primary election results were not great, but they weren't inconsequential either: he won 10 percent of the votes in Iowa and 8 percent in New Hampshire.

If the economy isn't growing well in three years and the government has maintained its expanded economic role, it should only reason to stand that Paul would do better among Republicans than he did in the primaries, at least based on how Republican politicians are voting and conservative leaders are speaking. (For what it's worth, Paul won third place in the Conservative Action Political Committee's 2009 straw poll of activists' choices for president.)

Paul is just as plausible a candidate to run for the Republican nomination as are Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, or Mike Huckabee who were tested in polls this month. Like them, Paul's run for the White House (twice) before and has said he isn't opposed to doing it again, albeit he said it's "unlikely." What's more likely, based on the circumstantial evidence, is that the Republican voters would receive Paul better than they did last year. Feature him in polls from now on and we can test this hypothesis. 

Jul 21 2009, 6:00AM

Question Of The Day: Health Care And Recess

Lawmakers are slated to return home in August, where they will talk to constituents about a broad range of issues. Health care will probably be high on the list. If reform doesn't get done before then, will senators and congressmen come back to Washington singing a different tune on health care after a month at home, when constituents will give them a piece of their minds?

Jul 20 2009, 9:00PM

Detainee And Interrogation Policy Reviews Delayed

The administration said today that its two Guantanamo Bay policy task forces, one on interrogations and the other on long-term detention policy, had asked for extensions. Briefing reporters tonight, officials said that 50 Guantanamo detainees had been transferred to foreign countries since the beginning of the administration.  The detention policy review task force released a fairly anodyne preliminary report on the criteria by which all remaining un-statused Guantanamo prisoners would be referred to for prosecution. Preliminary Report - Detention Policy Task Force - July 20, 2009.pdf  Pointedly, it leaves open other avenues, such as (and it doesn't explicitly say this) indefinite detention without trial.
Tab A. - Preliminary Report - Detention Policy Task Force - July 20, 2009.pdf   Newsweek's Michael Isikoff reports that members of the detention poliy task force have been unable to agree on key issues, such as whether indefinite detention remains an option for battlefield detainees captured in the future. 

Jul 20 2009, 7:00PM

The Day In Politics, 7/20

Today we learned what Texas Gov. Rick Perry thinks of Iraq and the stimulus, from Kuwait; the business lobby still hates the Employee Free Choice Act; President Obama didn't mention his August deadline for health reform in a speech today, advocating a bill by the end of the year instead; and health insurers released a TV ad backing reform.

We also considered why Obama is facing Democratic resistance on health care; whether House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's proposal to tax millionaires is realistic; and whether the "new normal" of less personal spending is good or bad for the White House.

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Jul 20 2009, 5:23PM

The Invisible Primary, 7/20

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Sarah Palin's hairdresser disputed a New York Times story that quoted her as saying Palin's hair had begun to thin (a purported sign of stress factoring in the governor's resignation); the Times stood by the story; Ron Paul called Palin's supporters as a "more establishment, conventional Country-Club type of Republicans"; Bobby Jindal will appear on national cable news shows today and tomorrow, following a hiatus of national public activity in the past few months; and Mitt Romney will speak at the Nebraska GOP's Founders' Day event in October.

Jul 20 2009, 5:09PM

The Insurers' Health Care Ad

America's Health Insurance Plans (AHIP), one of the biggest players in the health reform debate, released a new TV ad today "supporting bipartisan reforms that Congress can build on":
AHIP wants reforms in which "the words preexisting condition become a thing of the past"--hitting on a major complaint reform backers have with health insurance companies. (Here's the website of its reform campaign.) TPM's Brian Beutler reports a seven-figure ad buy.

But while the group touts its support for reform, there's one problem, from the perspective of President Obama's reform-minded backers: the proposals that would get bipartisan support, at this point, aren't the ones many reformers want.

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Jul 20 2009, 4:32PM

That August Deadline

President Obama's cutting response to Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) has made headlines today after the president spoke at Children's Hospital in Washington, DC, but what's equally (if not more) significant is that the oft-mentioned August deadline for health care reform was noticeably absent from his speech.

Obama has said, many times, that a bill must get passed by August--the month Congress takes off every year for members to return to their home states and districts. This year, the House is scheduled to leave town August 3; the Senate, August 10. It's widely recognized that passing major health reform before recess would be difficult, if not impossible.

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Jul 20 2009, 2:08PM

Why Obama is Facing Friendly Fire on Health Care

President Barack Obama is launching a counter-offensive on health care reform, as resistance movements have come pouring out of his own ranks. Let's review the two most recent news-grabbing gripes, from Democratic governors and Democratic representatives, and the economic soundness their arguments:

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Jul 20 2009, 1:48PM

Business Lobby Still Hates The Employee Free Choice Act

Late last week, news hit that Democrats were striking the "card check" provision from the Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA). This is the infamous provision which sought to prevent secret ballot in union voting. You might think that businesses would now be willing to compromise to allow passage of a watered-down version of the EFCA. You'd be wrong.

Another portion of the EFCA would allow either party in a first contract dispute to defer to the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service for mediation after 90 days. That means that the federal government could ultimately decide issues like pay, pensions, health care and working conditions for private sector employees.

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Jul 20 2009, 1:15PM

The Politics Of The "New Normal"

Along with today's news that President Obama's poll numbers are slipping on health care and the economy, we also get a report from Gallup's Frank Newport on the "new normal"--a trend wherein Americans accept the dismal economic present as norm.

The term specifically applies to consumer spending. Americans are spending less and plan to continue spending at those levels in the future, Gallup reported today, as it has reported before. About a third of Americans, 32 percent, say they are spending less now and expect to make their present habits a "new normal" of their future budgetings.

One can't help but wonder if the "new normal" has political ramifications. The economy's relationship with Obama's approval/favorability ratings has loomed as a macro question over his presidency: how long can he stay so popular without a significant recovery? Will it harm his ability to pass health care, energy, and education reform, the three pillars of his domestic platform? It's a question of public expectations, and the "new normal" is, explicitly, a phenomenon of the same category.

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Jul 20 2009, 11:02AM

Making Only Millionaires Pay For Health Care

Americans might despise bankers and disdain our elites, but we've always been squeamish about taxing the rich. So when the House of Representatives proposed a surtax on the top 1.2 percent of the population to pay for about half of its health care reform bill, moderate Democrats immediately pounced on the measure as unsellable to their constituents. And so, Speaker Nancy Pelosi now says she's looking to squeeze only millionaire families for the precious billions needed to keep heath care deficit neutral over the next ten years. Is this realistic?

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Jul 20 2009, 11:00AM

Rick Perry On Pajamas, From The Middle East

Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R), currently on a trip to Middle East with several other governors including Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, sat for an interview with Pajamas TV while outside Kuwait City. Pajamas posted the video to its website yesterday.

Pajamas is the same conservative online media network that sent Joe the Plumber to Israel as a correspondent.

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Jul 17 2009, 8:32PM

Cronkite: And That's The Way It Was

I met Walter Cronkite once, just a few years ago, on the day I became a consultant at CBS News. Though his departure from CBS News was acrimonious, Cronkite kept an office at CBS News headquarters on 57th Street, and would visit his old newsroom occasionally, shaking hands and posing for pictures with the staff. He was much smaller than I imagined. But his voice -- that voice -- made me shiver.

During the darker days at CBS News, I'm told that Cronkite's visits kept up morale, reminding the staff of what the Tiffany network represented in its halcyon days. America trusted Cronkite and trusted him to deliver the news. He brought them through Watergate, the Kennedy assassination, the death of MLK, the moon landings. There is no analog in today's media landscape: LBJ, musing about the horror of Vietnam, once told his advisers that "If I've lost Cronkite, I've lost middle America." Maybe Tim Russert came the closest.

The media today is much more fragmented and the audiences are much more demanding, generally a positive development. I don't know whether Cronkite's "old school" style of broadcasting and newsgathering would be tolerated; Cronkite's politics -- Middle American liberalism -- would probably be more important than his style, grace or skills. Cronkite began his career as a print guy, and he brought print standards (wire service standards!) to broadcast journalism. He was mentored by Edward R. Murrow but no one taught him how to be classy; he was a classy guy. Authentically classy. Authentic, too. He did not fake his gravitas, and he did not -- and I think this is very important -- he did not mask his emotions (man lands on the moon, and he says "Oh Boy!") or his feelings (he was the first modern anchor to tear up on camera, and did so regularly). He knew how to merge voice and words to create a story. He invented modern anchoring.

I'm too young to have direct memories of watching Cronkite on television, although the famous bulletin announcing the death of President Kennedy transcends all age cohorts. I've been fortunate to work with several TV legends who considered Cronkite their mentor and teacher, most notably Rick Kaplan, the current executive producer of CBS Evening News, and Susan Zirinsky, now the executive producer of 48 hours.

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Jul 17 2009, 4:43PM

Why Obama Is Obsessed With Health Care Costs

Whiter the argument about cost? In remarks today, President Obama warned Congress he wouldn't sign a health care reform bill into law unless it bended health care cost curve downward. At the same time, his chief budget officer, Peter Orszag, sent Congress a draft of legislation to create an Independent Medicare Advisory Committee -- what WH folks refer to as iMAC, apparently without asking Apple.

Here's how it would work:

This proposed legislation would require the President to approve or disapprove each set of the IMAC's recommendations as a package. If the President accepts the IMAC's recommendations, Congress would then have 30 days to intervene with a joint resolution before the Secretary of Health and Human Services is authorized to implement them. If either the President disapproves the recommendations of the IMAC or Congress passes such a joint resolution, the recommendations would be null and void, and current law would remain in effect. The review process would permit intervention if the IMAC's reforms are not in keeping with the goals of Congress or the President, while retaining autonomy for implementing annual payment updates and other Medicare reforms for the IMAC.

Sen. Jay Rockefeller has proposed something similar: his committee would be given the authority to set Medicare reimbursement rates and other payment schedules, and Congress would have to intervene, actively, in order to stop the changes from taking effect.  Congress, naturally, objects to the power invested in the committee, but it represents a step forward from the perspective of the White House. It's hard to see how the CBO could "score" the iMAC bill, not knowing what the IMAC commissioners would find when they examine competition and pricing.

Earlier this year, the White House decided to base its health care messaging on the concept of cost -- the current system was unsustainable and wasteful. They did not focus their argument on access, which appeals to people without access but doesn't do much for people with insurance, or about quality, which is complex and not intuitively helpful for Democrats.   Maybe the price of doing business with the insurance company was to focus on costs. Maybe they overcorrected from the Clinton model in 1994, which focused on "health security."
 
"We tried access and quality, with a tad of moral imperative, once before and it didn't work out so well. Its difficult no matter how you slice it," a senior Senate aide told me. A White House adviser conceded that "access is killer, no matter how you poll it."

And Obama's current health care advisers, from Orzag to Nancy Ann DeParle to Christina Romer, believe that game-changing tweaks to the health delivery system can control costs and, in the long run, reduce health care's share of aggregate demand.

The basic problem with the cost argument is that it elides over an important point, one that the White House wants to make publicly but cannot: in order to reduce costs in the short term, reform will cost something extra in the near-term. A deeper point they cannot make: it may take MORE money to build a better system. Only when that system produces better outcomes -- this would be years off -- can true cost-savings be realized.

The White House allows for a ten-year window for health care to become deficit neutral. The CBO's fairly static (and bottom-line tough) scoring of health care legislation, a legacy of Orszag's tenure over there, is certainly complicating the argument from cost.  But it's the only major argument that plays well with the voters (and members of Congress) the White House believes are crucial to getting something done.

Jul 17 2009, 2:15PM

Auto-Tune The News On C-SPAN

The creators of and principal players in Auto-Tune the News appeared on C-SPAN's Washington Journal this morning. For real:

Jul 17 2009, 1:35PM

Reformers: No Marijuana Legalization In California This Year...Ballot Measure In 2010?

Marijuana has generated some headlines in California this week, with a report that a state legislature proposal to legalize and tax it could bring in $1.4 billion for the state, and a proposal from an LA councilwoman to tax medical marijuana. But while reformers have seen the profile of medical marijuana and overall pot legalization raised in 2009, they don't expect the California measure to pass this year.

"In the long term, yes, but I don't think it's gonna pass this summer," Marijuana Policy Project Communications Director Bruce Mirken said.

The bill has not been slated for legislative action in 2009: if it's taken up, it will be when the legislature convenes in 2010, Drug Policy Alliance Deputy State Director for Southern California Margaret Dooley-Sammuli said.

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Jul 17 2009, 12:00PM

Cameras In The Supreme Court...In Britain

Not such a crazy idea after all? Sonia Sotomayor hinted this week, during her confirmation proceedings before the Senate Judiciary Committee, that she might not mind letting cameras into the Supreme Court, despite retiring Justice David Souter's staunch opposition to them. (Actually, she gave a non-answer, saying she'd recognize her role as a newcomer, but that she's had good experiences with cameras in her court before, and she usually tries to convince her colleagues to try new things when she joins a new court.) Today, BBC reports that the UK's Supreme Court will alow cameras when it begins hearing cases later this year.

Jul 17 2009, 11:05AM

The Most Important Health Care Story Of The Past 24 Hours Is...

(A): The American Medical Association endorses the House of Representatives' health care reform bill, which includes a "public option."

(B) The Congressional Budget Office director dares to speak truth to power: none of the major health care bills will reduce costs in the short term and will add to the deficit in the near term.

I was going to pick (B), until I read (C) -- the subhead to a story about how Massachusetts is on the verge of abandoning the fee for service system -- the blood vessels, if you will, of modern American health care.

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Jul 17 2009, 10:48AM

"Card Check" Is As Good As Dead; Binding Arbitration Lives

A canvass of labor leaders and strategists this morning confirms the diagnosis reached by the New York Times: there is not enough support in the Senate to change federal law to allow 'card check' elections anytime soon.  This is the first time since the start of the fight that labor leaders are conceding in private what has seemed to be apparent in public for a long while. The failure of card check, now known as "majority signup," speaks as much to the political priorities of the Obama administration as it does the power of moderate Democrats, most of whom opposed card check for fear of alienating employers in their mostly non-union districts. As of a few months ago, labor strategists could accurately claim as many as 58 votes in the Senate, just two shy of the magic 60 needed to avoid a filibuster. But even as President Obama and Vice President Biden dutifully praised card check in speeches, the White House did not put any political muscle into passing it, and they very clearly indicated to Congressional leaders that its passage was less important than health care, its economic stimulus efforts, its financial industry regulation proposals, and -- did we mention, health care, where the White House still believes that engagement with the private sector will push health care over the top in the end.  

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Jul 17 2009, 10:42AM

When White Males Have "Empathy"

There is perhaps no one who knows the cost of "selective empathy" better than Senator Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III. It's the reason his own nomination to the federal court died in the Senate 23 years ago.  

Long before the Belizean Grove found its groove, Sessions was on the stand himself, defending his nomination against claims that he practiced a form of "selective empathy" as old as the United States itself: the kind where white men can only find compassion for other white men. Accusations of racial insensitivity and prejudice dominated the 1986 hearings.

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Jul 17 2009, 10:08AM

Question Of The Day: Pelosi Vindicated?

With new reports of CIA misdirection, it seems less likely that Speaker Nancy Pelosi was being untruthful--as many alleged--about being lied to about waterboarding. Does Leon Panetta's report of the CIA withholding information from Congress in another area--the secret assassinations program--vindicate her? If so, should she get more public credit?

Jul 16 2009, 5:48PM

Secretary Of State, Not Superwoman

Reading The New York Times' David Landler's commentary on Hillary Clinton's first major address as Secretary of State at the Council of Foreign Relations yesterday, one gets the impression that Clinton is Superwoman, repressed by her boss and nemesis in the White House.

Landler calls her speech "an effort to recapture the limelight after a period in which Mrs. Clinton has nursed both a broken elbow and the perception that the State Department has lost influence to an assertive White House." He also situates her speech against the backdrop of the antecedent rivalry between Clinton and Obama from their bruising presidential primary campaigns last year.

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Jul 16 2009, 4:34PM

Politics, Explained In A Sentence

Blue Dog Democrats complain about the size of the House health care bill. Then they demand that hospitals IN THEIR districts be more adequately funded. 

Jul 16 2009, 4:20PM

Put This House On The D.C. Tour Map!

The atmosphere inside the beautiful old house on C Street was even friskier than we imagined. First we learned that occupant Sen. John Ensign, famously failed to adhere to Christ's standards in his marriage.  Then we found out about the peccadilloes of Gov. Mark Sanford of SC, who spent time at the C Street House when he was in Congress. CBS's Steve Chaggaris points me to news today that a third famous former resident of the church-convent-dorm has been accused of having an extramarital affair. Ex-Rep. Chip Pickering (R-MS), another one of those folks you could have called a rising Republican star. (Pickering's wife alleges the affair was with a woman named Elizabeth Creekmore Byrd.)  It's easy to make fun of the C Street house, but I think ought to look for enduring lessons. Powerful men with egos living together on the Hill do not necessarily progress to a higher level of self-discipline, even with the apparatus of evangelical Christianity to hold them accountable. Perhaps these men are drawn toward this community because they want a check on their libidinous natures, magnified as they are by the power quotient on Capitol Hill, with all those pretty young interns and lobbyists subordinate to you in social rank.  Of course, one might ask what these men would have done had they not been living with other, like-minded men.  

Jul 16 2009, 4:00PM

Bork on Sotomayor and Himself

Robert Bork, who was rejected by the Senate in 1987, is still kind of, um, bitter. The almost comic video from Newsmax.com features an interview in which he says that Sonia Sotomayor doesn't follow the law and that her "wise Latina" line should have been disqualifying. I thank my friends at Talkingpointsmemo.com for the heads up. Here's the video:



I have a few thoughts about Bork, some sympathetic and some not so much. First, I think the now generation-long conservative gripe about his not getting on the Supreme Court has a lot of merit. The Ted Kennedy attack on Bork was pretty outrageous, arguing that the Justice wanted a return to segregated lunch counters among other past evils. Bork was and is a critic of the Warren Court in the mold of Antonin Scalia--although he was to the right of Scalia on issues like flag burning. But his views were utterly lampooned by the Democrats. When his nomination went down, Republicans were outraged. His would-be successor, Douglas Ginsburg, had to withdraw his nomination after his marijuana use came to light. He's still on the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals. After that fiasco, an exhausted Senate confirmed Anthony Kennedy 97-0.

So Bork has some reason to be bitter but he's been milking it for years now. For someone who says he doesn't want judges to litigate and wants politics left to the politicians, he's still shocked that politics somehow tainted his nomination. But the Senate is a political body and just as it struck down two of President Nixon's Supreme Court nominees it knocked down Bork. In the Borkian view, which he repeats on the video, the Supreme Court was once a serent place but because the Warren Court was so whacked out. (Miranda rights! Brown v. Board!) it injected itself into the political sphere and thus its fights got more extreme. There's something to that. Even pro-choice liberals like Ruth Bader Ginsburg have questioned the court's decision in Roe.

But the fact is that presidential court nominees have gotten pretty respectful hearings. Certainly John Roberts and Sam Alito did.

Jul 16 2009, 3:37PM

Sessions: We're Gonna Do This Crack Cocaine Thing

Sen.Jeff Sessions, the top Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee, told a witness at today's judicial confirmation hearing that he wants to "do this crack cocaine thing."

Sessions (R-AL), the former U.S. attorney for southern Alabama and state attorney general, was referring to reduced sentences for crack cocaine related offenses, which are generally harsher than sentences for powder cocaine convictions--a fact that, activists point out, disparately affects poor, and often minority, offenders. But Sessions's particular wording caused a stir at the otherwise dry fourth day of hearings for Sonia Sotomayor.

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Jul 16 2009, 3:17PM

Ricci Takes The Stand

Two New Haven firefighters testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee today. Their case, Ricci v. DeStefano, has figured prominently in Sonia Sotomayor's nomination and confirmation process. It was the first thing her conservative opponents used to attack her, before her actual nomination when she was seen as a frontrunner in President Obama's search. It's part of the narrative that she's racially biased; GOP senators have suggested the opinion offered by the case's three-judge panel (of which Sotomayor was one) wasn't long enough and gave short shrift to the firefighters' complaint; Sotomayor has countered that it wasn't up to her panel to rule for Ricci, that it needed a precedent from the Supreme Court. The fireifighters eventually got it, when the Supreme Court ruled in their favor June 29.

Frank Ricci, a witness for the GOP side of the committee, addressed the hearing today. The firefighters are expected to score some points against Sotomayor for her opposition, but Ricci didn't take direct aim at the nominee--rather the process he went through and the decisions against him along the way.

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Jul 16 2009, 1:39PM

Sotomayor Delay?

Senate Judiciary Committee Ranking Member Jeff Sessions (R-AL) hinted today that Sonia Sotomayor won't see a confirmation vote next Tuesday as the committee's chairman, Patrick Leahy (D-VT) has planned. Any individual senator on the committee can place a one-week hold on a judicial nominee. "I expect that will happen," Sessions told reporters after the committee adjourned for a break early this afternoon, though he said the committee has a "realistic opportunity to complete this vote before August recess"--the desired deadline President Obama put forth when Associate Justice David Souter announced his retirement.

Jul 16 2009, 12:58PM

The GOP Field

Gallup has the latest polling on the GOP field of 2012 prospectives, and Mitt Romney comes out on top with 26 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents.

That makes it a three-way dead heat, when you factor in the previous two rounds of polling--released by Pew June 24 and Public Policy Polling June 18--between Sarah Palin, Romney, and Mike Huckabee.

Here's how each poll breaks down.

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Jul 16 2009, 11:03AM

Is The Holder-White House Fight For Real?

I won't claim to be sourced on the whole White House v. Department of Justice fight about whether to launch a criminal investigation into torture during the Bush era. Recent news reports have suggested that Attorney General Eric Holder is considering such an investigation and that the White House, which had inveighed against it, would prefer it not go forward. Newsweek's excellent piece by former colleague and friend, Dan Klaidman, portrayed Holder as an independent spirit who is deeply troubled by the facts surrounding the treatment of detainees and is inclined to launch a full-scale investigation to the chagrin of a president who has said that he'd rather look forward. The White House is said to be alarmed by Holder's independence but are they really?

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Jul 16 2009, 11:01AM

Graham: "Good Luck"

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) seemed to finally get what he was looking for from Judge Sonia Sotomayor today in the way of a reflection on her "wise Latina" quote. The comment has figured as prominently as anything else during her questioning; she has explained it by saying it was misunderstood and taken out of context, that she spoke it in the spirit of Justice Sandra Day O'Connor's comment that a wise old man and a wise old woman would reach the same conclusion in deciding a case, that it was a "rhetorical flourish" that "fell flat," and that "it was bad" and "didn't work," given that some took it as a statement of racial preference.

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Jul 16 2009, 6:00AM

Question Of The Day: Are We Ready For A Health Care Tax?

House Democrats have proposed a tax on wealthy individuals to pay for health care. Will the nation accept it?

Jul 15 2009, 7:00PM

The Day In Politics, 7/15

Today, we learned that a conservative group is comparing Sonia Sotomayor to William Ayers; Sandra Day O'Connor seems relieved that there might be another woman on the Supreme Court; a Human Rights Watch member tried to raise funds in Saudi Arabia by advertising the group's opposition to the pro-Israel lobby; a CIA report on interrogations will be released in August; the House released its health care plan, which includes a surtax; and Hillary Clinton stepped into the spotlight with a foreign policy speech at the Council on Foreign Relations.

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Jul 15 2009, 5:33PM

The Invisible Primary, 7/15

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

An Associated Press writer says Mike Huckabee is turning into a GOP frontrunner for 2012; Huckabee advised Gov. Sarah Palin to remain in the GOP; he'll also travel to Kansas next week to raise monty for a GOP congressional candidate; Chris Cillizza says South Carolina is now up for grabs in the 2012 GOP primary; and Newt Gingrich will visit Gundersen Lutheran Health System in La Crosse, Wisconsin (about which he's written in The Washington Post) later this month to talk about health care.

Jul 15 2009, 4:34PM

Foreign Policy: A Unified Imprint

"The point is to have a common imprint on foreign policy, not the president's imprint and the secretary's imprint..."  -a senior State Deptartment official, discussing Secretary Hillary Clinton's speech on a conference call with reporters this afternoon.

Hillary Clinton hasn't been all that visible since the start of the new administration. As the White House has rolled out its foreign policy in the early stages--a foreign policy that, during the campaign, took on President Obama's distinct personal stamp--it's been Obama who has publicly taken the lead.

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Jul 15 2009, 3:22PM

The Most Important Number In Politics

With apologies to Chris Cillizza, the most important number in politics, one that may well help determine the fate of major health care legislation this year, will be released by the Department of Labor on July 31. It's the first estimate of economic growth during the second three months of the year. Administration officials are crossing their fingers and hoping that it will be interpreted as a sign that the economy is turning around. It's hard to determine what constitutes a "good" number, since demand almost certainly declined in the second quarter. But the if the rate of decline dropped off sharply, economists will up their confidence levels that the economy, right now as I type, early in the third quarter, has begun to grow again.

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Jul 15 2009, 2:44PM

Scalia, Sotmayor And The Protestant Rebellion That Wasn't

A few commentators haven noted that if Sonia Sotomayor is confirmed, she'll be the sixth Catholic to sit on the court. There will be two Jews and one Protestant. That this is a total non-issue says so much about the country, how it's changed and our notions of diversity. Anti-Catholicism was a mainstay of American life for so long. One need only recall the 1960 presidential campaign of John F. Kennedy and his assurances that he wouldn't take orders from the Pope and contrast it with that of John F. Kerry who, in 2004, had to address windsurfing more than his religion. So it's remarkable that today this is not an issue. No Protestant group lobbied for another WASP on the court. It just worked out that six Catholics wound up on the bench, not by design but by the organic choices of multiple presidents.

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Jul 15 2009, 2:24PM

CIA Report On Interrogations Will be Released In August

A federal judge today ordered the Central Intelligence Agency to release by August 24 a long-anticipated report by its inspector general on the potentially illegal destruction of detainee interrogation videotapes. The ACLU has been seeking information about the videotapes and their destruction. The judge also scheduled oral argument on the issue of whether the government should disclose documents describing the interrogations. CIA Director Leon Panetta has argued that the videotapes' release would compromise the legal methods used by interrogators and that the CIA has the right to keep such information secret. The CIA says it has more than 3,000 documents relating to the interrogations. 

Jul 15 2009, 2:17PM

How to Defeat and Defend the Surtax

The health care debate is about to become a tax debate now that House Democrats have unveiled their health care plan that would levy a new tax on 2 million Americans.

Politically, this means Democrats are proving the stereotype true as the tax-raising party, and it will give the GOP a chance to strike and Democrats the need to fight back. At risk is landmark health care reform and part of the voter coalition President Obama rode into office.

Republicans may argue against the bill on the basis that it simply raises taxes on individuals that gross more than $280,000 or households that gross $350,000. That's a necessary but insufficient argument against the tax because Democrats are arguing this isn't just a tax, but a fee to be paid in return for a service: health care.

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Jul 15 2009, 1:40PM

Cornyn On Sotomayor Hearings & Hispanic Votes: I'm Just Doing My Job

John Cornyn (R-TX) is one of the more interesting senators to watch during Sonia Sotomayor's confirmation hearings. As chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, who represents a state with a large Hispanic population, he's at the nexus of Republican political concerns over the Sotomayor proceedings. The party wants to compete for Hispanic votes, opposing the first Hispanic nominee may hurt them; at the same time, conservative groups want to make Sotomayor a rallying cry for the party's core conservative base. Cornyn has to win the votes, raise the money, and turn out the conservatives if he wants to win Senate campaigns in 2010.

He hasn't been as tough on Sotomayor as some of his Republican colleagues. Unlike Lindsey Graham (R-SC) yesterday, who repeatedly cut Sotomayor off and made insinuations about her judicial philosophy, Cornyn actually apologized for beginning to interrupt her today. He restricted his questions to "do you stand by your words?" and "can you explain what you meant?"--even if his questions covered the same material as his fellow partisans: the "wise Latina" quote, the New Haven firefighters case, whether judges change the law, abortion, etc.

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Jul 15 2009, 1:17PM

Human Rights Watch Watch

Did a staff member for Human Rights Watch attempt to raise funds in Saudi Arabia by advertising your organization's opposition to the pro-Israel lobby? The answer, apparently, is yes, reports Jeffrey Goldberg.

Jul 15 2009, 12:42PM

O'Connor on the Court

You gotta like Sandra Day O'Connor. She's spirited, direct, no-nonsense and, three years after stepping down from the Supreme Court, gives the jaunty impression she is telling you things she ought not be saying. So it was in our conversation earlier this month at the Aspen Ideas Festival, where O'Connor was among 16 public officials, politicians, writers, and business leaders to sit with TheAtlantic.com for video interviews.

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Jul 15 2009, 11:51AM

The Langley Wars: A Primer

Secret intelligence services are indubitably among the most difficult institutions to reconcile with the values of modern, Democratic government. And yet, in the modern age, civilian intelligence gathering confers a decision advantage that our elected officials often use to reduce the likelihood of war or catastrophe.   Should the intelligence agency be an independent truth-teller? Should it speak truth to power, serving as a check on policy-makers?  Given the experience of the past nine years or so, it would be mighty tempting to say, “Yes, of course.”  After all, it was the Bushies who manipulated intelligence to serve their policy goals, right?

This is too simple a story. The Bush administration did not trust the CIA and scapegoated the agency after the twin (collective) failures of 9/11 and the question of whether Saddam Hussein was concealing a weapons of mass deception program. (Former Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld set the tone for the rest of the office of the president by advising extreme caution whenever dealing with CIA.)  For an administration so theoretically savvy about the dark arts, they made a hash out of the resources they had. The Pentagon assumed the principle intelligence gathering role for the government.  And so, for a few years, the CIA kind of went rogue, functioning, to be sure, but functioning with an eye toward politics and toward preserving their budget and status.  And so, for a few years, it seemed (to the administration) as if the CIA kind of went rogue, functioning, to be sure, but functioning with an eye toward politics and toward preserving their budget and status in an era when Congress was determined to implement the recommendations of the 9/11 commission, recommendations that stripped power from the agency. (This period ended in late 2006.)

One of the fascinating questions about the latest revelation from Langley -- that Dick Cheney ordered CIA chieftains not to brief Congress -- is stunning in the face of evidence that CIA officials in the latter Bush years routinely circumvented the wishes of the executive branch. A former very senior intelligence official who did not like Cheney told me today that Cheney never asked him not to brief Congress, and the program was small and never operational. It the content of the Al Qaeda hunt, the CIA did not believe that Congress would find a briefing useful.  Another former intelligence official wonders whether Panetta was too eager to tell Congress, too eager to make a political gesture to House Democrats, that he over-briefed by telling members everything that program managers had contemplated, including the possibility -- never authorized and never put into practice -- of conducting assassination operations in countries not contiguous to battlefields. 

The CIA was never set up to be an independent agency. It was set up to be a gatherer of relevant intelligence for the political branches, and chief among them, the president and the National Security Council. The CIA, in other words, is the ultimate presidential enabler. It is not set up to serve as a check on the executive branch; Congress is not sufficiently empowered, either constitutionally or statutorily, to provide the oversight that would be necessary were the CIA to be the independent agency that its longtime mandarins constructed it to be during the Bush administration.   Trust between the executive branch and the CIA is crucial, as is effective Congressional oversight. The two trusts are often at odds. 

By hook or by crook, the House of Representatives and the Central Intelligence Agency are on a collision course.  It is hard to find a knowledgeable observer who will defend either institution's political conduct over the past six months, although, perhaps unsurprisingly, many find the CIA to be in an impossible position.  

Leon Panetta, the CIA director, is in an impossible position. During the presidential transition, Obama was advised to select a CIA chief he could trust and one who would rebuild relations with Congress. After the trial balloon of John Brennan fell on flat ears in Congress -- Obama likes Brennan precisely because Brennan served the former president and had changed his mind, thus giving the former CIA operations officer a stake in getting it right -- Panetta emerged as the right model of a pick from the perspective of a president: the former chief of staff knows what intelligence can contribute to a functioning national security establishment.  Panetta, of course, inherited a demoralized agency, one with a bone to pick about how it was treated over the past six years, an agency that worried about the sort of ex-post facto scrutiny that Democrats were bound to give it. The CIA believes it deserves the benefit of the doubt, but history counsels otherwise, as Shane Harris's recent National Journal cover story makes clear.  

What will the House investigative? Here's a primer:

**  It seems so simple -- a "capacity" to train assassination teams to kill Al Qaeda leaders. A presidential finding authorized the formation of these teams, but the Bush administration chose to use a different authority and a different agency -- the Department of Defense -- to carry out the stated goals of the finding. In an of itself, a small program designed to give the CIA an assassinations capacity against enemies of the state isn't controversial.  What might be is whether the CIA program was ever intended to target Al Qaeda leaders who weren't in Afghanistan or Pakistan or Iraq; whether the CIA was preparing so-called "wet work" in allied or fremenistic countries without express permission from the host government. If that's the reason why CIA never implemented the program, then good for them.

** There are five digits that a generation of CIA case officers must commit to heart: 12333, as in executive order 12333, which was issued by Ronald Reagan in 1981 and which banned political assassinations, albeit vaguely" "No person employed by or acting on behalf of the United States Government shall engage in, or conspire to engage in, assassination." At the same time, 12333 states that "[n]o agency except the CIA (or the Armed Forces of the United States in time of war declared by Congress or during any period covered by a report from the President to the Congress under the War Powers Resolution (87 Stat. 855)1) may conduct any special activity unless the President determines that another agency is more likely to achieve a particular objective."  The clause allows the CIA to help the DoD target the leaders of nations or entities (like a terrorist group) with whom we are at war. In theory, those operations are confined to a country where Congress has authorized the President to use force.

** But George W. Bush wasn't the first president to contemplate or conduct offensive "special action" against terrorists operating anywhere in the world. President Clinton, in fact, signed Presidential Decision Directive 62, which directed the CIA to kidnap and even terminate (or "dirsupt") terrorist networks worldwide. At Steve Coll's Ghost Wars, the definitive intelligence history of the period, makes clear, the CIA acquiesced but balked, not wanting to empower the National Security Council (post-Iran contra) to run secret counterterrorist operations without the consent of Congress. Long story short: the CIA developed during the Clinton years the very same capacity that it was asked to develop during the Bush years.

** There has been astonishingly little legal or public debate about whether the President of the United States has the inherent authority to order his armed forces to preventatively detain or proactively assassinate suspected terrorist leaders anywhere in the world on the basis of intelligence collected. The best primer on the subject is Kenneth Anderson's, who has written most recently on the subject here.   This is a debate worth having.

Jul 15 2009, 10:38AM

Committee For Justice: Sotomayor, Like Ayers, Supported Terrorists

The conservative Committee for Justice released a web ad today accusing Sonia Sotomayor of having "led a group supporting violent Puerto Rican terrorists."

The ad begins with a comparison to former Weather Underground member William Ayers. The group says it plans to air the ad on TV.

Though it's not explained further in the ad, the group's claim centers on a comment by an official with the Puerto Rican Legal Defense and Education Fund (PRLDEF), with which Sotomayor worked in 1990 when New York Mayor David Dinkins referred to the Puerto Rican nationalists who attacked the U.S. Congress in 1954 as "terrorists." The PRLDEF official said those remarks were insensitive.

Jul 15 2009, 6:38AM

The Health-Care Surtax And Its Discontents

Democrats in the House of Representatives released their version of a health-care bill yesterday. While it marks just one phase in the complex legislative process, it's still a signal moment and one that poses opportunities and risks for the Obama administration. On one hand, it's really happening--a bill that could greatly expand health insurance coverage to milllions of Americans who don't have it. On the other hand, the ideal of near-universal insurance comes with a price tag and with a way to pay for it. The House Democrats went with a surtax on the wealthy, as much as a 5.4 percent tax on families making more than $350,000 a year. There's a common sense aspect to this: You want health care. You need the money. It's got to come from somewhere. Why not those who are able to afford it?

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Jul 15 2009, 6:37AM

Hillary Clinton's "Smart Power" Breaks Through

When you think of President Obama's foreign policy, think of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. That's the message behind a muscular speech that Clinton is set to deliver today to the Council on Foreign Relations. The staging gives a clue to its purpose: seated in front of Clinton, subordinate to Clinton, in the first row, will be three potentially rival power centers: envoys Richard Holbrooke and George Mitchell, and National Security Council senior director Dennis Ross. 

Clinton portrays herself in the speech as the integrator of President Obama's approach to foreign affairs - as his partner in developing policy and as his prime mover in implementing it. Make no mistake: the White House sanctioned this speech, which was blueprinted by the secretary's policy planning staff. They want Clinton's public role to expand. Where George Mitchell speaks to Israel, where Richard Holbrooke negotiates in middle Asia, where Jim Jones cajoles leaders behind the scenes, it's Clinton who directs this minuet and who communicates with the public and the world about America.  

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Jul 15 2009, 6:15AM

Question Of The Day: Health Care--After Recess

President Obama has repeatedly stated that America must have health care reform this August, presumably before Congress goes on recess. With recess looming, and with a unified proposal yet to gain momentum, that will be a challenge, to say the least. What happens if it doesn't get done? If Congress misses Obama's deadline, will the prospects for health reform change?

Jul 14 2009, 7:00PM

The Day In Politics, 7/14

Today, we learned that Sonia Sotomayor wouldn't mind cameras in the Supreme Court (we think); Atlantic Media Company Chairman David Bradley was named to the Department of Homeland Security's new advisory panel on terrorism alerts; Sotomayor said she's been misunderstood; Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) tried to get Sotomayor to repeat her "wise Latina" quote; and Justice Stephen Breyer shared his thoughts on getting confirmed with The Atlantic.com Editorial Director Bob Cohn.

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Jul 14 2009, 6:10PM

The Invisible Primary, 7/14

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Sarah Palin placed an op-ed on cap-and-trade in The Washington Post, and got blasted by liberal bloggers; Congressional Quarterly reported on mounting speculation that Reps. Eric Cantor and Mike Pence will run in 2012; and Sen. John Ensign, formerly speculated as a 2012 presidential hopeful, says he'll run for reelection to the Senate in that year.

Jul 14 2009, 5:29PM

Justice Breyer and the "Stress" of Confirmation

Fifteen summers after he was confirmed to a seat on the U.S. Supreme Court, Associate Justice Stephen Breyer said his Senate hearings were "stressful" even though "my confirmation was supposed to be pretty noncontroversial." In an interview with TheAtlantic.com at the Aspen Ideas Festival earlier this month, Breyer remembered what it was like to testify: "There are 17 senators on one side of the table, and I'm on the other side. And people are watching me on television, and I'm not used to that."


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Jul 14 2009, 4:50PM

Graham: "Okay, Say It To Me"

After putting on a show during the first day of Sonia Sotomayor's confirmation hearing, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) had a slightly awkward, apparently good-natured moment with Sotomayor today as he tried to get her to repeat her "wise Latina" quote before the committee.

As he got ready to question her on the quote, as the committee's other senators had done, in turn, since 9:30 a.m., he shuffled his papers and, looking up at her and smiling, said he couldn't find it.

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Jul 14 2009, 3:38PM

Jay-Z, The Game, Global Hegemony, And Obama

Foreign Policy's Marc Lynch takes an international relations look at the recent sniping at Jay-Z by LA-based rapper The Game (dis track here--warning: offensive and not safe for work). As hip-hop's closest thing to a hegemon since the (not so) Cold War between rap superpowers Biggie and Tupac, Jay-Z faces the same problem that's confronted the USA since the Soviet Union collapsed: as a hegemon, how do you respond to sniping from lesser powers? Being on top increases the number of attackers and, as Lynch notes, decreases the marginal utility of hitting back. If Jay-Z (or the U.S.) hits back at every hater with hate missiles his own, he exhausts resources, elevates The Game to his level, and lends publicity to his opponent. If the hegemon responds, it must do so in away that preserves alliances and its own structural power.

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Jul 14 2009, 3:05PM

SCOTUS Hearings Are All The Same

Well, it's important to remember that, as a judge, I don't make law. And so the task for me as a judge is not to accept or not accept new theories; it's to decide whether the law, as it exists, has principles that apply to new situations.

With respect to Judge Sotomayor and her defenders, explain how this paragraph, taken from this morning's proceedings,  is not tautological and circular. Of course judges accept new theories. All of them do. Pretending they don't is a feature of American life limited to the twenty hours a year the Senate Judiciary Committee investigates the legal mind of the next Supreme Court justices. (Thanks to Justice R.B. Ginsburg for originating this type of performance.)  The advise and consent function of the Senate has turned into a "provide comfort" function that sets up political precedents ("Well, when Obama nominated Judge Sotomayor, she promised she wouldn't make new law, and look what happened!"). Of course there are differences between justices; take Sandra Day O'Connor's minimalism and John Paul Stevens' activism.  In theory, these hearings are supposed to help us figure these out. Instead, they're designed to squish everyone into some supposed middle ground where judicial theories and environmental predispositions never matter (except when they do.)  That leads to absurdity all around: Senator John Kyl being unaware that white guys bring their perspective to situations, or Patrick Leahy patiently coaching Sotomayor through her days a facts only, mam, prosecutor.  Sotomayor won't tell anyone what she thinks about executive power, or anti-trust law, or late-term abortions. Instead, we're supposed to judge her temperament and mien, as if that's the only reason why she was chosen -- as if that's the only predictive information available to those who want to figure out what kind of justice she will be.

Jul 14 2009, 1:23PM

Code Conflict: Our Boss Joins Terrorism Alert Review Panel

A surprise to us here at the Atlantic Media Group: company owner David Bradley has been appointed to the Department of Homeland Security's new advisory panel on terrorism alerts.  Bradley is the only member of the media establishment on the 17-person panel, which will provide recommendations on whether to continue the Green-Yellow-Orange-Red color alert system within 60 days. The commission will be chaired by two well-respected GOP appointees -- ex-Bush homeland security adviser Fran Townsend, now chairman of the Intelligence and Security Alliance, and ex-FBI/CIA director William Webster. Other members include two governors, a member of the Heritage Foundation, several mayors, police chiefs, and the president of the Navajo nation. Recall that the Homeland Security Advisory System was instituted in 2002, and that the level changed 16 times through 2006; it's remained at "yellow" since Aug. 10, 2006. There has been plenty of reporting to suggest that Bush administration political officials clashed frequently about whether to raise alert levels -- usually the "don't raise it" side lost out. I've not had the chance to discuss this issue with Mr. Bradley, so I don't know where he stands.

Jul 14 2009, 1:17PM

Torture Prosecutions From The CIA's Perspective -- And Obama's.

The more I think about it, the more I'm beginning to think that this weekend's revelation (that Attorney General Eric Holder was considering appointing a special prosecutor to investigate CIA interrogations during the Bush administration) was a triumph of Justice Department communication strategy.  When you agree to give Newsweek an interview (which ostensibly would end up on the cover), you bring along some news. I don't doubt for a moment that AG Holder is honestly contemplating a special prosecutor, and I ascribe no ill motives to his staff, who are responsive to -- and responsible for -- the Attorney General's freedom to move in political spaces.

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Jul 14 2009, 12:12PM

Obama The Lefty To Throw Out First Pitch

Tonight the world will know Barack Obama is a lefty.

That's because the president will throw the ceremonial first pitch for the Major League Baseball All-Star Game in St. Louis. Obama is left-handed, like most recent presidents, but unlike most successful pitchers.

Nothing less than Obama's pride and manhood are at stake for the millions of mostly male baseball fans who will watch him try to throw a strike. (I exaggerate, but only slightly).

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Jul 14 2009, 11:17AM

Sotomayor Wouldn't Mind Cameras in Supreme Court?

Though cameras in the courtroom were by no means favored by Justice David Souter (he warned they'd have to "roll over my dead body" to get into the Supreme Court), it sounds like his potential replacement wouldn't mind them. Sonia Sotomayor gave a non-answer to Sen. Herb Kohl's (D-WI) question about cameras in the Supreme Court this morning, on the second day of her Senate confirmation hearing. She's had good experiences with cameras in her appellate courtroom when participating in experiments, she acknowledged today, and Sotomayor said she makes it a practice, when coming to a new court, to "understand and listen to my colleagues about why certain practices were necessary or helpful, or why certain practices were necessary or helpful, or why certain practices shouldn't be done or new procedures tried, and then spend my time trying to convince them."

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Jul 14 2009, 10:23AM

Sotomayor: I've Been Misunderstood

Today we got our first chance to hear Sonia Sotomayor respond to charges of racism and bias, as she appeared before the Senate Judiciary Committee for her second consecutive day of hearings.

In addressing the "wise Latina" quote, Sotomayor said she made it in the spirit of the equal capacity of men and women to wisely decide cases.

"You've been referred to as being a bigot, and to the credit of Republican senators and the Democratic senators, they have not repeated those charges, but you have not been able to respond to any of those things," said committee Chairman Patrick Leahy (D-VT), the first senator to question Sotomayor and a staunch backer of her nomination.

"So tell us, you've heard all these charges and counter charges, the 'wise Latina,'" Leahy said. "Here's your chance. Tell us what's going on here, judge.

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Jul 14 2009, 5:53AM

Exit Steve Rattner

I know and like Steve Rattner, which doesn't make me especially unique. The New York financier is well known in Washington and New York, where he started the Quadrangle Group investment firm after years at Lazard Freres and other firms. His wife, Maureen White, was a finance director of the Democratic National Committee, and the two are well connected in politics in both cities. The Rattners are close to the Clintons, and Steve was an outspoken supporter of Chuck Schumer in his 1998 Senate bid and for New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg. For what it's worth, I hosted a panel with Katie Couric, Brian Williams and George Stephanopoulos at Quadrangle's annual Foursquare conference this past year and spoke on another occasion in front of his group.

Like a lot of people, I was surprised to hear yesterday that Rattner was giving up his role as Obama's chief auto adviser so quickly after the General Motors restructuring. The New York Times has an account. Mickey Kaus offers a number of theories over here at Slate.

One issue seems to be an investigation by New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo into the practices of investment firms, like Quadrangle, seeking new business especially managing pension funds. Some other investment firms like the private-equity giant, the Carlyle Group, have paid fines. The Times also quotes an adminstration official noting that Rattner's work was largely over.

I guess for me there are two interesting aspects of the story. The first is how thorny it's been for Treasury to bring in people to help fix the financial mess. They've had to grant waivers over various lobbying restrictions, and they've been at pains to find people with the expertise to fix the mess that we're in but who were not themselves part of the mess. That's a small applicant pool. Leaving aside the merits of the Cuomo investigation, it's likely to make that pool even smaller.

Jul 14 2009, 5:30AM

Question Of The Day: Sotomayor's Hearings--Waste Of Time?

What does the nation gain from Sonia Sotomayor's televised confirmation hearings?

Jul 13 2009, 7:00PM

The Day In Politics, 7/13

Today, Sonia Sotomayor made her first appearance before the Senate Judiciary Committee; President Obama met with a coalition of unions; Al Franken stepped into the limelight; and Lindsey Graham put on a show at Sotomayor's hearing.

We also asked whether the secret CIA program ended by Leon Panetta was, in fact, targeted assassinations; we considered Graham's performance at the hearing; and we credited Karl Rove with the judicial/political trope of "balls and strikes"--one we heard often today.

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Jul 13 2009, 6:15PM

The Invisible Primary, 7/13

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Sarah Palin's PAC, SarahPAC, raised $733,000 in the first six months of 2009; Newt Gingrich suggested that the U.S. should ask illegal immigrants to go back to their countries of origin temporarily in exchange for guest-worker permits; and Mike Huckabee appeared in Oklahoma on Sunday; he said he was "very surprised" at her decision to resign but that she remains a strong presidential candidate for 2012.

Jul 13 2009, 5:24PM

Chief Umpire Rove

There's been so much talk of "balls and strikes" at today's Senate hearing that one could be forgiven for imagining that Sonia Sotomayor is auditioning to lead an umpiring crew for Major League Baseball, and not to join the Supreme Court. At his 2005 confirmation hearings, current chief justice John Roberts also talked a lot about "balls and strikes." What gives? And who's responsible for the annoying judges-as-umpires meme? The answer, I believe, is Karl Rove. As I learned while reporting this piece on Rove's history of dirty tricks, one way that Rove flipped the Alabama Supreme Court from being mostly Democratic to mostly Republican (in Alabama judges are elected) is by propagating the notion that judges ought to be like umpires--i.e., limited to rendering impartial (non-empathetic?) judgment. When Rove showed up in Alabama in the early 1990s, the trial bar dominated the political landscape. His pleasingly simple and easy to grasp "umpires" formulation resonated deeply, and in short order Republicans came to dominate. In fact, they still do. (Sadly for Karl, it's probably the nearest he'll ever get to his "permanent majority.")
 
There was a time before the GOP collapsed, when people automatically assumed Rove was behind everything. Today, he can't get credit for anything. So in the spirit of calling 'em like I see 'em, let's pause to acknowledge Rove's achievement. It's so great that the Democrats have stolen it!

Jul 13 2009, 5:20PM

Sotomayor's First Hearing: Wrap

After weeks of meeting with senators in their offices on Capitol Hill, Sonia Sotomayor made her first appearance before the Senate Judiciary Committee today.

Nothing happened that was particularly unexpected: GOP senators raised questions about impartiality, judicial activism, Sotomayor's rulings and the "wise Latina" quote; Democrats praised her personal background and the historic quality of her nomination as the first Hispanic and third woman to come before the committee seeking a Supreme Court appointment. The hearing was thrice interrupted by shouting members of the audience.

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Jul 13 2009, 4:06PM

Obama Meets With Labor

President Obama met with the National Labor Coordinating Committee today, a body formed in April to present a unified front on labor issues.

The labor movement has been divided since 2005, when labor coalition Change to Win split from the AFL-CIO, though it's been speculated that the new group, chaired by former Rep. David Bonior, would help facilitate a reunification.

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Jul 13 2009, 3:26PM

Introducing Al Franken

Al Franken, the newest member of the Senate who this month gave Democrats their 60th seat in the upper chamber, made his debut in high-profile Senate business today, in front of national television cameras at Sonia Sotomayor's first confirmation hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee, of which Franken is a member.

As the most junior senator in the room, he spoke last among the committee's 18 members, taking his turn at the back of the line as senators offered their opening remarks.

As many expected, Franken acknowledged his newness to the Senate, almost prostrating himself before the committee's veteran members, saying he has much to learn, and paying tribute to Sen. Ted Kennedy.

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Jul 13 2009, 1:45PM

Lindsey Graham's Swing Shtick

You have to like Lindsey Graham's air of reasonableness. My colleague, Chris Good, notes that the senior senator from South Carolina put on a good performance this morning, saying publicly that he might vote to confirm Sonia Sotomayor for the Supreme Court. Amidst all the preening by the Senate Judiciary Committee members, Graham's hiccups of honesty--saying Sotomayor would be confirmed barring a meltdown--seemed refreshing even if they were obviously true. It's a good week, though, to read Geoff Earle's 2005 piece in The Washington Monthly on Graham, who is less moderate than he appears to be. Graham earned a reputation as a thoughtful moderate during the Clinton impeachment hearings, but in fact he'd signed on to a resolution calling for an impeachment inquiry--months before the Lewinsky scandal came to light. (The measure was introduced by Bob Barr, the former Republican congressman who would become the Libertarian Party candidate for president in 2008.) Earle notes that while Graham was a consistent voice against torture--a position stemming from his role as an Air Force attorney--he was never a tough voice against Rumsfeld at the time of Abu Ghraib.

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Jul 13 2009, 1:41PM

How Key Republicans Have Performed At Sotomayor's Hearing

As Sonia Sotomayor's first Senate confirmation hearing has drawn nearer over the past week, there's been speculation as to how harshly Republican senators would criticize her. She's expected to be confirmed fairly easily, but the committee process offers, with national TV cameras present, offers committee members a chance to grandstand and make their points in front of a larger-than-usual audience.

With conservative groups blasting Sotomayor, there's some pressure on GOP senators to do the same; with the party looking to compete for the Hispanic vote, there's pressure to treat the first Hispanic Supreme Court nominee amicably.

So, with that in mind, here's a rundown of how GOP senators performed at today's hearing.

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Jul 13 2009, 12:32PM

Graham's Performance

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), so far, has offered the most entertaining and, perhaps, notable, opening remarks of the Sonia Sotomayor confirmation hearing, telling Sotomayor that no Republican would have picked her--and that she's going to pass barring a "meltdown."

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Jul 13 2009, 9:51AM

Sotomayor's Confirmation Hearing

With the first of Sonia Sotomayor's Senate confirmation hearings happening today at 10 a.m., here is our liveblog as Republicans and Democrats get their first change to question President Obama's nominee publicly, in front of news cameras in the hearing room.

Watch the hearing live on C-SPAN.

Things to watch for: with the hearing attracting so much media attention, which senators will grandstand most extravagantly for or against Sotomayor? Likely candidates on the Republican side are the committee's more conservative members--Sens. John Cornyn, Lindsey Graham (*Graham, a backer of John McCain, is typically more moderate than his colleagues listed here. See Matthew Cooper's post on Graham at the hearing.), and Tom Coburn. Jon Kyl, who has held a leadership post within the GOP caucus, could also be a good candidate.

And: Frank Ricci, the lead plaintiff in Sotomayor's controversial firefighters/affirmative action ruling will be a witness for Republicans; New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg will appear, called by the committee's Democrats.

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Jul 13 2009, 7:46AM

What Was That Secret CIA Operation? Targeted Assassinations?

According to the Wall Street Journal's Siobahn Gorman, "a secret Central Intelligence Agency initiative terminated by Director Leon Panetta was an attempt to carry out a 2001 presidential authorization to capture or kill al Qaeda operatives, according to former intelligence officials familiar with the matter."

It's a curious story. So Congress knew about the finding (which has been previously reported -- first by Bob Wooward in Bush at War, then elaborated on by Ron Suskind and others) and the revelation is that the CIA had a cell that was still proposing ways to carry out the finding?   That doesn't seem objectionable... especially if the finding had been fully briefed to Congress  and the CIA hadn't authorized any action operations. 

What's ticklish is that the Joint Special Operations Command, operating under the 2002 Authorization for the Use of Military Force (against Al Qaeda) and the Bush/Cheney Article II inherent authority rubric, fairly routinely captured/killed Al Qaeda leaders in places like Yemen and Somalia... without the permission of the country involved.  (The CIA often provided intelligence to help these efforts.)   The CIA needs a presidential finding to begin a covert op; for a clandestine op (an operation that results in something public but whose originator is hidden), the disclosure requirements are different. And the Bush administration claimed the inherent authority to capture or kill Al Qaeda leaders anywhere under its interpretation of terrorism as a military matter.

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Jul 11 2009, 4:41PM

Holder Considers A Torture Prosecutor

A Justice Department official confirms Newsweek's report that Attorney General Eric Holder is leaning towards appointing a special prosecutor to investigate Bush administration-era torture and interrogation policies. Newsweek's Dan Klaidman cites four departmental sources, and Holder himself, as admitting that, after a review of the programs, Holder began to consider an investigation, even though President Obama and Obama's top aides oppose any sanctioned look back at the policies of his predecessor. When Obama asked Holder, a longtime friend, to become attorney general, Holder extracted a promise -- perhaps extracted is too tough of a term because Obama readily agreed -- that the White House would not interfere with the Department's decisions about whether to launch investigations, according to two people with knowledge of the encounter. When it comes to setting and refining judicial policy, the White House counsel's office plays the lead role. But Holder and his deputies get to decide whom to prosecute.

The Newsweek article flatteringly portrays Holder as a "renegade" whose decision-making process is influenced by his pursuit of justice, Obama's agenda be damned. It reveals some tension between the Justice Department and the White House, although my sense is that the tension is less acute than the article portrays and more institutional than personal (One sore point: the White House counsel's office was notified about the Obama administration's first assertion of the state secrets privilege, but somebody forgot to inform the president. Such confusion in the first few weeks of an administration would be news if evidence for it were absent.)

Perhaps the article will ratchet up the tensions, since it creates a Holder v. Obama dynamic that White House press secretary Robert Gibbs will be forced to respond to on Monday, probably with a folksy quip. The White House doesn't like process stories like this one, although, on one level, the portrayal of a Justice Department independent from White House political considerations is, on balance, positive for Obama's conception of the rule of law.

Appointing a special prosecutor to investigate Bush-era policies of any sort is fraught with risk, even exempting the public and political ramifications. Investigations like these have a way of snowballing. The intelligence community will strenuously reject and resist; there are very legitimate concerns about the integrity of classified information.

If Holder decides to go ahead, he may not entirely satisfy critics of the Bush-era policies; a special prosecutor might not be given a mandate to investigate more than a handful of compartmented programs.

On the one hand, it is tough to see a prosecutor being given a mandate to determine whether former Vice President Dick Cheney ordered CIA officials to not brief Congress on a highly sensitive, classified intelligence collection program given the very real chance that the national security damage resulting from the disclosure of information about the program might be significant.

Nonetheless, it's doubtful that Holder would lean into a decision in such a public way unless he was ready to consider an option that may well have significant ramifications for the country and lay a strong precedent for future administrations.

Since the beginning of his presidential transition, Obama has been counseled by his attorneys that any such investigation is likely to be incomplete, resulting in people being charged with sins they participated it but did not originate. Even senior Justice Department officials admit that the possibility of an elected White House decision-maker like the Vice President being charged with a crime is remote. Obama would rather not see middle managers prosecuted for decisions, or crimes, of elected officials or senior political appointees. And he is very concerned with precedent. But this will not be his decision to make.

Aside from this momentous decision Holder will soon reveal, and be forced to defend, the administration's position on the state secrets privilege. Additionally, the Justice Department will release a long-awaited report on Bush administration legal policy.

Jul 11 2009, 3:20PM

The Obama Speech Newt and Rove (And America) Could Love

You don't have to be a conservative Republican to think President Obama gave an extraordinary speech in Ghana today. But conservative reaction to the address has already been favorable. Newt Gingrich wrote on Twitter that "The Obama speech in ghana is a very positive speech about importance of self government and responsibility of Africans for their own future." Karl Rove noted that Obama praised George W. Bush's increase of HIV/AIDS assistance to Africa. The speech, which was the highlight of the president's one-day visit to Africa, had obvious emotional import from the start--the first African-American president, the son of a Kenyan, comes to the country where so many slaves began their journey to North America. (After his speech, Obama visited the famed gate of no-return where so many slaves departed Africa for the West.)

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Jul 11 2009, 10:06AM

Prop. 8 Challenged In Court...And At The Voting Booth?

After a challenge to the Proposition 8 gay marriage ban was struck down by California's Supreme Court in May, there was debate among gay rights groups on what to do next. A federal court challenge? A ballot initiative to overturn it in 2010? The same in 2012?

With a federal court case already gaining momentum, and with field efforts already underway for a ballot initiative, it looks like we'll see both.

A federal lawsuit is now being argued, on behalf of the American Foundation for Equal Rights by the attorneys for George W. Bush and Al Gore in the 2000 election lawsuit, Ted Olson and David Boies, who signed on the day after California's Supreme Court ruled to uphold Prop. 8.

This week, the ACLU, the National Center for Lesbian Rights, and Lambda Legal, a prominent LGBT legal group, are trying to join on.

Before this latest development, gay rights groups seemed to think a court case wasn't such a good idea, and that a ballot initiative to legalize gay marriage in 2010 or 2012 would be preferable. Now that these groups are looking to join the court fight, that's no longer the consensus.

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Jul 10 2009, 4:30PM

The Jockeying For Obama's Old Senate Seat

The jockeying to replace Roland Burris as the next United States Senator from Illinois continues. Earlier this week, Democrats were bummed to hear that the state's attorney general, Lisa Madigan, was going to decline to run for the seat being held by Burris and that used to be held by a fellow named Barack Obama. Republicans were doubly encouraged to hear that Mark Kirk, a relatively moderate and popular Republican congressman from the state, was likely to get in the race. Now, Chris Cillizza at The Washington Post is reporting that Kirk is not going to get in the race after all. Why does this matter? Because the race for a seat vacated by a president is important. 

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Jul 10 2009, 2:34PM

Goodies In The New Report On NSA Surveillance

Inspectors general from across the Justice and intelligence communities have released a major, revealing report about the controversial National Security Agency domestic collection program that the New York Times disclosed in 2005.  The unclassified version of the report, which you can read here, contains intruging hints about the program's origins, the internal debates about its use, and the scope of its activities. We know that the "TSP" was simply one part of the "President's Surveillance Program," as the IGs, somewhat neutrally, label it.  The CIA and FBI were privy to the raw intercepts.   Some highlights, from a quick glance:

** Many senior intelligence officials said they weren't sure whether the program contributed to successful terrorism prosecutions, although the IGs found some (classified) evidence that, in certain cases, it did. (pp. 34).

** The NSA's general counsel's office regular reviewed the "target folders" -- i.e., the identities of those under surveillance -- to make sure the program complied with the instruction to surveill those reasonably assumed to have connections to Al Qaeda. They did this by sampling a number of the folders at random. What does that tell us? Quite simply... that the number of persons who were targets inside the United States was pretty darn big... if the NSA's management couldn't individually determine whether each target met the legal criteria.  (pp. 19, and my interpretation.)

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Jul 10 2009, 2:15PM

Should Medicare Pay Kidney Donors?

As President Obama focuses on rising costs in his efforts to overhaul the U.S. health care system, Virginia Postrel points to a particularly costly area of health care--dialysis treatment for patients awaiting kidney transpants--and suggests some solutions.

One of those solutions, donor chains, has already arisen with the National Kidney Registry, a small nonprofit that matches willing donors with recipients in need. When someone needs a kidney and his/her friends and relatives don't match (a common occurrance due to blood types and the development of antibodies in "sensitized" recipients), strangers with willing donors can get matched. The registry creates a matrix of people to achieve just that.

But another, more controversial suggestion, is offering financial incentives--paying people to donate kidneys. If Medicare paid for it, Postrel suggests, it could save taxpayers billions.

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Jul 10 2009, 12:02PM

Winning the Sotomayor Witness Game

Generally, the witnesses in a Supreme Court confirmation hearing take a backseat to the nominee himself. Sure, there was Anita Hill and all of the drama surrounding Clarence Thomas's extraordinary confirmation hearings. But can you remember anything about those who testified for or against Sam Alito or Ruth Bader Ginsburg? I couldn't. In general, it's the interplay between the senators and the nominees themselves that attracts attention. But this time it could be different. Both sides have tapped big guns for and against the nomination of Sonia Sotomayor to be the first Hispanic and only the third female associate justice in the history of the Supreme Court. I'd give a slight edge to the GOP, for sheer cleverness in designing their witness list. Here's why.

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Jul 10 2009, 11:17AM

Interpreting The Beltway: What It Means To Say Health Care Is "Stalled"

It's worth clarifying the language I'm using to describe the status of major health care reform legislation. What provokes my repetitive posts on why health care isn't dead are journalists and commentators who conflate the sludge of negotiations and Congressional lawmaking with their being a "lack of progress" or who interpret public disagreements -- such as the Blue Dog Democrat demands on taxes -- as evidence that legislation has "stalled." or "set back."  This metaphor envisions a road. At the start is nothing; at the end is a perfect (from the standpoint of some unknown entity) bill.  You can never go sideways, or diagonally, or underground, only forward or backward. The end of health care is zero-sum, of course; either there's a bill or there's not So, in a technical sense, legislation that is delayed on a calendar is "stalled." 

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Jul 10 2009, 10:30AM

"Pals Around With Terrorists": Palin Wasn't That Rogue, After All

In the mail this morning was an advanced copy of Dan Balz and Haynes Johnson's extremely well-reported history of the 2008 presidential campaign: The Battle for America is what the two veteran Posties have called it. The book will be published on August 4; Balz and Johnson will talk about it on Meet the Press on August 2.  There are plenty of scoops, and I can't resisting sharing just one involving a critical phase of the campaign in early October of 2008. 

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Jul 10 2009, 10:09AM

Sotomayor Supported; Public Split On Whether Issues Should Dominate

Judge Sonia Sotomayor enjoys the public's support, a CNN/Opinion Research poll reported this morning; 47 percent of the 1,026 respondents said she should be confirmed, 40 said she shouldn't, and 13 percent were unsure.

But, other than Harriet Miers, previous nominees were held higher in the public's esteem. Yes/no splits on the same question were 60/26 for John Roberts, 54/30 for Samuel Alito, 53/14 for Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 52/17 for Clarence Thomas, according to previous numbers included in the CNN poll.

Buried in the findings, however, is an interesting nugget on how Americans think senators should base their votes--namely, the public is split on whether issues like abortion or gun control should determine how senators vote.

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Jul 10 2009, 7:18AM

Health Care Reform Isn't Dead

My favorite health care reporters have gone into "concerned" mode again about the fate of health care reform legislation. I decided to recanvass the sources who've convinced me that reform is alive and kicking to see whether the fundamentals of the debate have changed over the past two weeks.  The answer is mixed.

Those commentators who believe that Sen. Harry Reid's leaked (therefore public) reproach to Finance Committee chairman Max Baucus was a major milestone are correct, although perhaps not for the reasons that they assume.

In a meeting of Democratic Senators, about a third of those present made it clear that they were unhappy with the direction Baucus was taking. It wasn't so much that they objected to the specific proposal he's floated to end the exclusion on taxing health care benefits, it was that Baucus's approach to crafting the finance particulars of the bill was inherently flawed and stalling the process.

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Jul 10 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: A Climate Game-Changer?

The G-8 agreed on some climate goals this week ahead of its December conference in Copenhagen, though they're not binding; when they sit down for more serious talks, will President Obama be a factor? Will his presidency, and the U.S. shift toward greener ambitions, change the geopolitics of climate change?

Jul 9 2009, 7:00PM

The Day In Politics, 7/9

Today, we learned that South Carolinians think Mark Sanford should resign, though he isn't planning to; Norm Coleman isn't polling too well after conceding his legal battle; and Sen. Chris Dodd asked regulators to prepare to enforce a provision that could protect credit cardholders from rate increases before the new credit card legislation takes effect.

We also ruminated on how an economic rebound in 2010 could benefit Democrats; and how Sen. Al Franken's presence in the Senate doesn't mean a sure victory for labor's top priority, the Employee Free Choice Act.

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Jul 9 2009, 5:49PM

What Did The CIA Hide From Congress?

Because the executive branch retains a stranglehold on regulations about the disclosure of classified information, there are very few ways for member of Congress who learn about objectionable, classified programs to reveal their discomfort. They can write a classified letter. They can risk prosecution by revealing the information publicly. Or they can do what a gaggle of House Democrats did yesterday: band together, suggest that the CIA misled them about a specific program, and wait for journalists to uncover the details. 

In some ways, this last route is a reasonable accommodation of competing interests. If Congress believes the CIA's program is or was illegal and unethical, the single way to ensure that the program -- or the values that informed the program -- never surfaces again is to utilize public pressure, or the threat of public pressure. Transparency often conflicts with efficiency.

It's inevitable, now, that we'll soon be provided with a fairly full accounting of the covert program that director Leon Panetta discovered, stopped, and brought to Congress's attention. All the major intellireporters are on the trail. There are plenty of former IC folks who are willing to hint about the details, provided they're asked the right questions.

I don't know what the program is. No one I asked would shed any light on it.  From the reports of others, though, and from guesswork derived from a knowledge of what the CIA is chartered to do (provide exclusive political intelligence (that can only be clandestinely obtained) to our political leaders about major developments), I can come up with a few possibilities.

1. We know the program had nothing to do with the terrorist interrogation program or with extraordinary rendition. We know that it was primarily a CIA program, which means that it probably did not have anything to do with Sy Hersh's "executive assassination" ring disclosures, which relate to special access programs of the Department of Defense's Joint Special Operations Command.   (Basically, if the CIA wants to kill someone, it requires a finding of Congress. The Bush administration believed that the DoD could kidnap or kill suspected terrorists under the president's inherent authority.)

2. The program was not primarily a technical collection program, but it  may have involved the use of technology to collect information from human sources.

3. Newsweek's sources seem to suggest that the program was related to the war on terrorism, but it might simply have  been informed by the CIA's other war on terrorism programs. That is, perhaps the CIA borrowed controversial techniques and applied them to another main target, like, say, China, or Israel (yes), or Pakistan or Afghanistan or India or Venezuela.

4. What type of program would be acceptable to President Bush and objectionable to President Obama? 

One can guess: perhaps the CIA found a way to covertly place information implicating Hamid Karzai's brother in various drug-related offenses in the foreign media.....perhaps the CIA was covertly providing funds to an opposition candidate in Afghanistan or Pakistan in a way that was bound to be discovered by the regime we officially support.   Perhaps the CIA created a front company to process, say, the encryption keys that Israeli's Air Force uses to protect communications. (Israel manufacturers this stuff endogenously, but you can be sure that the American government wants to know everything it possibly can about Israeli Air Force strategy vis-a-vis Iran.)   Perhaps the program involved sabotage in a country like Syria, which the U.S. is currently trying to court.  Perhaps it involved the planting of covert communications devices on unwitting international scholars who travel to North Korea.

The mind wanders.

What's clear is that Democrats on the committee were sufficiently outraged by the disclosure to make public the fact that something was disclosed.  This may be the only way to hold the CIA accountable in an era where the executive branch refuses to relax briefing procedures.  It may be irresponsible and jeopardize ongoing operations. It may be related to the CIA v. Pelosi grudge match.  Soon enough, we'll have our answers.

Jul 9 2009, 5:45PM

The Invisible Primary, 7/9

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

The Iowa Republican Party wants Sarah Palin to attend a fundraiser; she doesn't have another job lined up despite offers to host her own talk show, her attorney told The Washington Post; and Jeb Bush accused President Obama of having concealed his "secret plan" to raise deficits during the campaign.

Jul 9 2009, 5:28PM

Question of the Day, Answered

Some reader responses to our Question of the Day, which was: How optimistic are you that President Obama will sign health care reform legislation into law by the end of the year? If so, why? If not, why not?

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Jul 9 2009, 2:45PM

Credit Cards: It's Not Over

Though credit card reformers mustered widespread support for legislation that will limit the abilities of credit card companies to raise rates and impose over-the-limit fees willy nilly, the battle isn't over; now that the bill has been signed into law, efforts to keep a leash on credit card companies has shifted into the regulatory realm. That's where Sen. Chris Dodd, the Senate's champion of reform, has taken his latest request for more government monitoring of the industry, with a letter to the heads of Fed, FDIC, the Office of Thrift Supervision, the National Credit Union Administration, and to the comptroller of the currency, worried by news that card companies are squeezing customers before the new law takes effect next year, nine months from its signing in May.

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Jul 9 2009, 12:30PM

Coleman Will Have Some Rebuilding To Do

By the end of it, people were tired of the protracted recount process and court battle that left Minnesota with only one U.S. senator until last week, and it's taken a toll on former Sen. Norm Coleman's opinion ratings. He is viewed unfavorably by 52 percent of Minnesotans and favorably by 38 percent, according to a new survey by Public Policy Polling. (Caveat: PPP conducts automated polling via telephone, with respondents pressing buttons to indicate their opinions. This is viewed as less reliable by some pollsters and journalists, but, in horse-race polling, Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal has deemed it as accurate as using live interviewers. Today's poll includes results from 1,419 Minnesotans July 7-8, margin of errod +/- 2.5 percent.)

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Jul 9 2009, 10:59AM

Even With Sen. Franken, Employee Free Choice Act Is Stuck

The arrival of Al Franken is encouraging supporters of the Employee Free Choice Act, but the bill remains stuck in the Senate. Franken has signed on as a co-sponsor of the bill and announced as much to cheers at an AFL-CIO event in his honor on Tuesday night. But the problem that's plagued the bill for months still remains: 60 Democrats don't support it and the Republicans are determined to filibuster the measure, which has united the business community like nothing else in recent memory. Among those Democratic Senate votes still trying to be nailed down are Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Arlen Specter, Jim Webb and Mark Warner of Virginia, Michael Bennet of Colorado, and Ben Nelson of Nebraska. Dianne Feinstein has been less than enthusiastic about the proposal, which is sometimes called Card Check. No Republicans are backing the bill. Chuck Schumer of New York and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid are trying to find a compromise that can get the 60 votes. With Robert Byrd and Ted Kennedy in ailing health, the proposition is even dicier.

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Jul 9 2009, 10:02AM

Should Incumbent Senators Be Worried about 2010?

Via Matthew Yglesias, we have this report from the IMF with a very simple story: This recession is slowing, but recovery will be sluggish -- especially in the world's advanced economies, where the hurt has been deepest. Yglesias concludes: "If I were an incumbent U.S. Senator running for re-election in 2010 I would be terrified by these projections." Is that right?

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Jul 9 2009, 9:59AM

Sanford Vs. The Polls

As a spokesman for Mark Sanford says the governor will stay on and try to "buil[d] back the trust of South Carolinians," polls indicate people think he should resign, The State reports, citing Rasmussen and SurveyUSA. Meanwhile, an "impeach Sanford" rally will be held today at the State House...it was organized by a Democratic activist, but Republicans have issued some of the more prominent calls for Sanford to step down, with the S.C. Senate Majority Leader orchestrating a letter asking for the governor's resignation June 30. Should be interesting to see how many Republicans attend, voicing those calls in a rally atmosphere that could be comprised mostly of Democrats, rather than in letters and statements to the press.

Jul 9 2009, 6:28AM

Question Of The Day: Will Obama Sign Health Reform?

How optimistic are you that President Obama will sign health care reform legislation into law by the end of the year? If so, why? If not, why not?

Jul 8 2009, 7:00PM

The Day In Politics, 7/8

Today, we learned that Alexander Allan, head of Britain's Joint Intelligence Committee, is on Twitter; Sarah Palin did some tweeting of her own; the White House is very skeptical of a second stimulus; and hospital groups pledged to cut $155 billion of health care costs over 10 years.

We also considered a case against polling; a choice between health care and a second stimulus; what Sotomayor's confirmation process will look like; a former Defense Dept. lawyer's proposal for handling detainees; and President Obama's approval dip in Ohio.

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Jul 8 2009, 4:47PM

Clash With Congress: Obama Threatens Veto Of Intelligence Funding Bill

The Obama administration has threatened to veto the funding bill for US intelligence agencies because the House included a provision that would increase the number of members who receive briefings on highly secretive covert operations. 

The provision, section 321 of the Intelligence Authorization Act of 2010, would require intelligence agencies to brief all members of the House and Senate intelligence committees virtually every sensitive classified project, including "special access programs" that have traditionally been orally briefed to the "Gang of 8," the chairs ranking members of the intel committees, the Speaker and Minority Leader of the House of Representatives, and the majority and minority leaders of the Senate.

The same provision allows Congress, not the administration, to restrict the briefings in extraordinary circumstances.

This seemingly small change to the law is what's provoked the veto threat. The Obama administration, like all previous administrations of the modern era, believe that the president, and only the president, has the power to determine what constitutes national security information and, even more vitally, what safeguards ought to be in place to protect the information. 

Section 321 chips away at that power and simultaneously expands the scope of the briefings that the administration would be required to give.

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Jul 8 2009, 4:45PM

Hospitals On Board; Health Care Sounds Better From White House Than From The Hill

The White House took the latest step today in its efforts to ease everyone into the idea that its health care designs will succeed by the end of August, and that there's real momentum behind its goal to pass significant--in fact, unprecedented--reforms, as several groups joined Vice President Joe Biden and Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius for a press conference at the White House compound, pledging to save $155 billion in health care costs over the next ten years, through payment reforms and reducing hospitals' annual inflationary updates.

The groups were: the American Hospital Association, Hospital Corporation of America, Community Health Systems, the Catholic Health Association of the United States.

Like President Obama's announcement in May that a slew of industry players had pledged $2 tillion in cost cutting over the same time period, today's event was about showing that industry groups are on board with the premise, at least, of Obama's health care agenda--that costs are unsustainable. Contrasted to the frenetic ups and downs of health care reform efforts on the Hill, today's message was simple, and easy to digest.

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Jul 8 2009, 4:19PM

Catastrophic Attacks Disrupted.... And Then What?

On the knotty question of prolonged or indefinite detentions, is there a middle ground between those who want to codify an expansion of oresidential power and those who believe that existing laws, fully exploited, are sufficient? Into the debate comes Madeline Morris, a former senior Defense Department detainee affairs lawyer. She's circulating a proposal called the Counterterrorism Detention, Treatment and Release Act, which she contends will satisfy constitutional, moral and legal criteria laid out by President Obama. 

Morris sides with those who believe that existing criminal statutes are appropriate for most, but not all, terrorism prosecutions. But she is sympathetic to the worry that creating a forward-looking detention framework that does not retroactively address -- or account for -- the detention and disposition of Guantanamo detainees, would be illegitimate and constitutionally troublesome.

Detainees -- those "engaging in armed catastrophic" attacks against the U.S. -- would be held in conditions equal to detention facilities for prisoners of war. (That means, in essence, that they could not be held in supermax facilities.) The appeal of this approach is that it avoids a definitional battle over who gets sent where. Interestingly, Morris locates the detention authority in the judicial branch. Here's how it would work:

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Jul 8 2009, 3:38PM

Sotomayor's Allies

Emily Bazelon has a great and revealing interview with Ruth Bader Ginsburg in the upcoming edition of The New York Times Magazine. Most of it centers on the role of women on the court, all of which is interesting. The full-throated endorsement of Sonia Sotomayor is itself interesting, the gentle ribbing of Breyer and Scalia as aggressive questioners on the Court and her deep affection for the late Chief Justice WIlliam Rehnquist and her thoughts on his growing sensitivity to feminist causes all make for good reading on the Sotomayor hearings. It's hard to believe that the interview wasn't timed to help Sotomayor not that she needs much help.

I spoke with a Democratic Senator just after Sotomayor made her first round of courtesy calls to Judiciary Committee members. He's not someone who would oppose Sotomayor in any event but he said something which was quite interesting: Sotomayor was incredibly charming, collegial. For him, it helped put to rest the idea that she was somehow uncollegial. "She'll be really potent in conference," the Senator told me, referring to the sessions where the Justices hammer out how they'll vote.

Sotomayor will rightfully get questioned about the New Haven Firefighters case where the Court reversed the Second Circuit ruling and struck down the Connecticut city's aggressive affirmative action plan. She'll get knocked around a bit for her "wise Latina" comments. But she seems heading to an incredibly smooth hearing next week. I'll be especially interested to watch Orin Hatch who was a vocal advocate for Steven Breyer and Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Will he be on board for Sotomayor. I'm sure conservative stalwarts like Jon Kyl and Jeff Sessions will vote against her. There's a reflexive wing in both parties. (Bill Bradley voted against David Souter.) But Hatch is the swing vote I'll watch. And even if he decides to lay down a marker against her, it'll be a pretty easy set of hearings.


Jul 8 2009, 3:37PM

White House Very Skeptical About "Second Stimulus"

More Congressional Democrats voiced concerns today about the pace of the economic recovery, but the White House is holding firm against the idea of a second major stimulus intervention. Two administration officials say the President will wait at least six months before deciding whether to support a second stimulus package. Still, some administration officials and allies concede that two tactical errors were committed during the stimulus battle, although they were perhaps unavoidable. As the Vice President said this weekend, White House economists underestimated how bad things were (as did everyone else, of course, aside from a privileged few.)  Secondly, and perhaps more pertinent to today's debate, officials arguably oversold the stimulus package's inherent efficiency. Their words and deeds differed; the administration was careful to say that the economic recovery wouldn't be instantaneous, but, at the same time, it was politically critical to sell the stimulus by highlighting how quickly certain monies would be spent.  ("Shovel ready" conjures up a picture of a worker, with a shovel in hand, waiting for the green light. The reality is more prosaic.)

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Jul 8 2009, 12:59PM

Sarah Palin--Tweeting Up A Storm

Perhaps seeking to reinforce the points she made at her resignation press conference Friday, Sarah Palin has had some interesting things to say on Twitter today (see her feed here):

Today,try this: "Act in accordance to your conscience -risk- by pursuing larger vision in opposition to popular, powerful pressure"-unknown about 1 hour ago from TwitterBerry

Couple of thoughts for the day on beautiful bright AK morn:"You have to sacrifice to win. That's my philosophy in 6 words."- George Allen. about 2 hours ago from TwitterBerry

...NO ONE can measure DC's 1st attempt @ growing debt to "fix" prob. AK seeks development, industry, jobs for econ recovery vs growing govt about 2 hours ago from TwitterBerry

Talk in DC of a 2nd "Stimulus" Pkg: Impacts on AK? We'd be partaking in even more Big Govt largess & immoral natl debt accumulation when...about 2 hours ago from TwitterBerry

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Jul 8 2009, 12:30PM

A Second Stimulus Or Health Care?

Paul Krugman asks why favoring a second stimulus, like opposing the Iraq War, has been written out of the public argument.  Now, I seem to remember a very robust and lengthy public argument about the war, which couldn't have persisted without opponents.  But leaving that aside, what about the stimulus?

Well, it is starting to get some traction.  But it probably won't get much, and here's why:  Democrats aren't interested.  They aren't interested because they are already facing political pressure over the debt.  Doing another stimulus will--or so they think--make it much harder for them to do health care and climate change.  Their initial thesis that a big, bold spending program would "prime the pump" for more big, bold spending programs has fallen flat.  The stimulus is working too slowly, probably because little money has yet been dispensed, which has made further spending programs less, not more, popular.

A question for Paul Krugman and other stimulus proponents:  would you rather have a second stimulus, or health care?  I know that in an ideal universe you wouldn't have to choose, but assume that the worrywarts are right, and you do.  Which should Obama get done?

That's a genuine question, and one that I think congressional democrats and Democratic wonks should probably be more conflicted about than they apparently are.  Not to concern troll, but it's a genuinely tricky, and interesting, political question.  If you think a second stimulus will work, and is needed, then you're risking the 2010 midterms and the 2012 election if you don't do it.   On the other hand, what's the point of electing Democrats if they can't get a single major program passed?

Jul 8 2009, 11:01AM

Polling And The Herd Mentality

At the Atlantic Special Ideas Report, Conor Clarke makes a case against polling, for, among other reasons, polls' ability to influence mass opinion by reflecting it, accurately or inaccurately, and to effect a herd mentality:

[O]f perhaps greatest concern: the outcome of one poll can affect future polls and behavior. As behavioral scientists and economists are fond of pointing out--in books like Nudge and Predictably Irrational--popular behavior can snowball. Public-health campaigns emphasizing how few teenagers smoke are more effective in deterring teen smoking than those that emphasize lung cancer or bad breath. Likewise, the perception that a candidate or political position is popular today will make the candidate or position more popular in the future. As Cass Sunstein and Richard Thaler put it in Nudge, "Nothing is worse than a perception that voters are leaving a candidate in droves." Voters should be free to switch allegiances whenever they want, but they should do so for substantive reasons, not because they're following the flock.

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Jul 8 2009, 9:47AM

Detainee Policy: Inside The Task Force

On the day after his inauguration, President Obama instructed his attorney general and chief legal advisers to create a new framework for detention that would be binding upon his predecessors and consistent with American law.  For six months, the task force's small professional staff and its members have met in secure Justice Department conference rooms.
The participants are diverse: there are tough-as-nails intelligence types. FBI interrogators who've been on the front lines. Academics.  Civil libertarians. State Department officials who are sensitive to international opinion. Defense department attorneys who live and breath the Uniformed Code of Military Justice.

To illustrate the central dilemma this team must consider, some task force staff members have created a semi-fictional scenario involving a most-wanted terrorist bad guy who is located in a foreign country.

Somewhat tetchily, a few of them have chosen Thailand, a country known to have permitted the CIA to operate a black prison site.

The scenario proceeds roughly as follows: in cooperation with Thai intelligence, the United States discovers that a known al Qaeda operative is noodling around in Chang Mai.

Thailand, of course, is not contiguous to any battlefield. Preventing this person from committing an act of terrorism is a paramount national security concern.

But the laws are very ambiguous and so are the ethics. It is not at all clear that the person can be arrested by Thai authorities, extradited to the U.S. and then tried in a federal court. Perhaps the intelligence was obtained through extraordinary methods; perhaps a foreign government obtained the location (later validated) through torture; perhaps the U.S. has a very well-placed human source inside the Thai-terrorism nexus. What to do? The Bush administration had a simple answer: send in the commandos -- i.e., the Joint Special Operations Command -- kidnap them, or kill them, or have them transferred to military custody and parked in a cell for the rest of their lives. The Bush administration used JSOC teams to kidnap or kill suspected terrorists in Yemen and Somalia. 

In the task force's hypothetical example, the person has not yet committed a terrorist act against the United States but does belong to a terrorist organization.    In theory, the person could be captured and held by the United States under the authority Congress granted to the President in its 2001 authorization for the use of military force.

However, the law is also fairly plain about geography: the terrorist in Thailand who has yet to commit an act of terror (one can be a terrorist without acting on the impulse) is not covered by the AUMF and may not be covered by U.S. criminal law either.  So what's a president to do? Sending in the special ops commandos is quick and efficient, but it draws on an as-yet untested claim that the president has the inherent authority to kidnap and/or kill anyone his executive branch deems to be a threat. Obama, in a recent AP interview, doesn't like this option. It is the apogee of the unitary executive theory. 

And yet, the president has a constitutional duty to do something, and he has a moral imperative to prevent an attack on the United States. 

On first glance, the laws of war and criminal law seem inadequate.  That's why several scholars have proposed to codify the president's authority to capture and detain threats to the country but do so in a way that involves the political institutions and does not circumvent them. Proposals being floated include special national security courts, or periodic status reviews. Congress would facilitate the creation of these mechanisms by passing a law. The argument in favor of this approach proceeds from the assumption that the president does have the authority to do this, but that he lacks legitimacy unless he involves the other branches of government and cedes some of his power.

There's a big legal problem with this approach. As lawyers for detainees are finding out, the judiciary branch has been extraordinarily deferential to the executive branch when it considers matters of national security, especially the question as to whether something or someone constitutes a national security threat. Almost without hesitation, courts, up to and including the Supreme Court, have given the executive branch an enormous degree of latitude. Legislation that would question this presidential power -- the power to define national security threats -- would face an immediate court challenge; it is hard to see the White House signing off on a proposal that would throw out 50 years of precedent and take away authority that presidents before George W. Bush have claimed.

In May, some members of the task force asked two outside experts, Kate Martin and Ken Gude of the Center for National Security Studies and the  Center for American Progress to submit a memorandum on the Thailand question and the scope of the president's authority.

For Gude and Martin, the question of whether the president has the authority to indefinitely detain untriable Guantanamo Bay-held combatants is moot at this point. Hesitatingly, they concede that the decisions made by the Bush administration have tied Obama's hands very snugly.

"We respectfully urge that consideration of such cases should not be the basis for adopting far-reaching policies with substantial counterterrorism costs that are likely to far outweigh any short-term benefits from continuing to detain such individuals," they argue in the brief, which was obtained by the Atlantic.

But they part company on the critical question of whether the president needs any additional authority. They do not believe there is anything terribly magical about terrorism so as to jerry-rig any new court review or supra-congressional authority onto the existing cannons of law and practice. Any preventative detention system, they argue, is not only "illegitimate" from a legal perspective, it will be seen as such by the world, thereby exacerbating the climate that allows terrorists to recruit against America. 

So what can the president do in the case of the Thai would-be terrorist?  Three options. He can ask the Thai government to detain and try the man. America's image as the world's antiterror cop easily morphed into something much worse: the image of America being at war with Muslims.  Having other countries participate in the trials and detentions of terrorist suspects would internationalize the concept of antiterrorism, and it would prevent these countries from using America's eagerness to fight terror as a way to kick out some of their undesirable political dissidents.

Or, the President could instruct the FBI to build a case -- a parallel case -- against the suspect. This would take more time and lots of resources, but it would certainly legitimize the capture and detention of a dangerous person. The FBI is, in fact, working to build many cases like this right now because of a similar imperative to try as many Gitmo detainees in federal courts as possible.

Or, the President could try something novel: the CIA, or the FBI, could inform the terrorist that he or she is being monitored. Britain has employed this tactic on occasion, and is has stopped many plots. It's dangerous, of course, and may only lead to the terrorist in question becoming more secretive and paranoid.  But it's an option.

The task force will present its conclusions to the White House in a few weeks. Most likely, it will outline a variety of options consistent with the president's charge. Where is Obama leaning?  The answer depends on whether he believes that modern terrorism is a sui generis threat; whether the granting or codifying of a new executive detention authority will be abused in the wrong hands; whether the current law is sufficient to deal with the problem.  It also matters, quite frankly, who gives him advice.

My sense is that the President hasn't decided yet.  That presents an opportunity for everyone -- lawyers, activists, ordinary citizens -- to influence one of the most important decisions Obama will make.

Jul 8 2009, 9:46AM

Grading Obama On A Curve In Ohio

Marc asked yesterday whether the Quinnipiac Poll showing President Obama's approval rating well below the national average was an outlier. Without more polls from Ohio or similar states that's tough to answer, but Quinnipiac polls Ohio from last year were outliers--in favor of Obama.

Quinnipiac pegged Obama's approval rating in Ohio at about the same level where it stood nationally back in May. Since then his national approval rating has declined, but according to Quinnipiac, it's dropped like a stone in Ohio.

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Jul 8 2009, 8:26AM

The Spy Who Tweeted Me

This appears to be the authentic Twitter avatar of a man named Alexander Allan, who, as head of Britain's Joint Intelligence Committee, is that nation's spy chief. (The job is analogous to the Director of National Intelligence.)  He's lived a fascinating, tragic, and mystery-filled life. And he's a Deadhead, to boot. 

Jul 7 2009, 8:15PM

Why Unemployment Could Hit 14%

Today unemployment stands at 9.5 percent. That's awful, and it's far worse than the Obama administration envisioned at this point, even without a nearly $800 billion stimulus package passed in January. But it's not the worst we've had in the last 30 years. In late 1982, unemployment hit 10.8 percent. Some economists suspect we could hit that mark by early next year. How high could unemployment climb in this recession? Twelve percent? Thirteen percent? Here's the argument for a 14 percent peak:

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Jul 7 2009, 4:54PM

Terrorism Law Update: Jeppesen, Al-Haramin, And State Secrets

The ACLU filed its argument opposing an en banc hearing for the major state secrets privilege case, Mohamed et. al. v. Jeppesen DataPlan.  In May, the Justice Department urged the 9th Circuit to overturn the decision of three of its members that the case, which involves Jeppessen's role in the government's extraordinary rendition program, should proceed. The Bush administration and the Obama administration have argued that it cannot, for reasons of national security. The Obama administration's position is at odds with the President's official position on the state secrets privilege -- he does not believe it ought to be used to throw out cases before they begin -- and the administration fears a Supreme Court battle. 

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Jul 7 2009, 3:30PM

Are Americans Becoming More Conservative? They Think So, But...

Conservatives trumpet, and liberals pooh-pooh, this latest Gallup survey of American ideological self-assessment. It includes that although Americans say they're becoming more conservative, they're not voting that way, and they're not acting that way. I think George Will's classic saying is relevant here: Americans tend to be temperamental conservatives and operational liberals.  

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Jul 7 2009, 2:37PM

An Ohio Outlier?

I asked a White House official to respond to a poll from Quinnipiac of adults in Ohio showing a fairly significant downturn in President Obama's job favorability ratings. More data is needed, the official said, before conclusions can be made.  That's true. But you can bet that it was included in their morning reading. For those who want to know, the pollsters asked about Obama before they asked about the voters' perceptions of the economy in the state...although after they asked 24 other questions about state political races.  Nationally, Obama's approval ratings among adults are averaging around 57%, with his unfavorables holding steady at about a third of the public. If anyone comes across other reliable state polling on Obama's job approval numbers, please send them along. 

Jul 7 2009, 2:24PM

We Interrupt This Visit To Russia To Bring You A Statement On Health Care

Or -- why hasn't the White House figured out a clearer way to say what it wants to say?

White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal

" 'The goal is to have a means and a mechanism to keep the private insurers honest. ... The goal is non-negotiable; the path is' negotiable."

 Barack Obama, in a statement released from Mother Russia:

 "I am pleased by the progress we're making on health care reform and still believe, as I've said before, that one of the best ways to bring down costs, provide more choices, and assure quality is a public option that will force the insurance companies to compete and keep them honest. I look forward to a final product that achieves these very important goals." [emphasis added.]" 

Translation: a bill that expands access and cut costs is a higher priority than a bill that does both and includes a public plan. That said, a bill must contain some way to pressure the insurance industry to keep costs down and improve quality. The political realities in Congress right now preclude the president from being more specific. Also: given that the public plan question is one of several unresolved debates, the White House wants to save its political capital for other questions, like payment reform, taxing health benefits (i.e., capping the exclusion), employer/individual mandate penalties (pay or play) and more. 

Background: The White House is sensitive to three counter-pressuring forces. One: a health care bill probably won't pass the house without a public plan option. Two: a health care bill probably can't attract 60 votes in the Senate with the version of the public plan that passes the house. The White House, here, is looking at the conference negotiations -- the end game. They're letting the House be the House and the Senate be the Senate. A White House intervention in favor of a robust, competitive public plan would doom the bill in the Senate. Three: what Obama wants. The President wants a bill with a public option and which has the support from --and buy in from -- all stakeholders. If given the option of having a bill with a strong public plan and no support -- indeed, intense opposition from -- the insurance industry, or a bill with a weak public plan and plenty of industry support (and Republican votes), Obama would choose the latter. Critically, though, Obama and the White House are relying on Karen Ignani and others to build Republican support for the bill. If the industry can't bring along any Republican votes, it makes no sense to give them a veto option on a public plan. 

The "mechanism to keep private insurers honest" is the goal, of course, of a universally available and government-subsidized public plan. When the public (a big majority of the public) tells pollsters they support a public plan, they're saying they support a "mechanism There are other ways to achieve this goal: government regulations, hybrid public-private plans, experimental public plans, cooperatives (maybe). To be clear, one of the problems is etymological. There is so thing as a "public plan." It is a concept that requires details: who would get access to it? Would providers be forced to participate? How much would they be compensated? Would the government subsidize it? When would it kick in? And would it work as promised? If it's poorly written, it'll simply shift costs to the public, something the White House won't tolerate. If it's used along with Medicare and Medicaid to experiment with payment reforms, maybe they will. Last week, former Sen. Tom Daschle issued a warning of sorts to the insurance industry: Democrats will be less willing to play ball if Republicans refuse to meet them halfway. The message: the insurance industry needs to get Republicans on board, or else Democrats will, when writing the final bill, be tempted to write legislation that the industry will not only be unable to support but will find quite distasteful. 

The big question mark is reconciliation. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Budget chairman Kent Conrad say that the anti-filibuster process simply isn't applicable to most health care legislation, and because reconciled provisions would sunset after five years, the reforms would be impermanent and probably not enforceable. If Democrats need only 50 Senate votes, then they don't need to worry about the President's language now. But if they need 60 votes in the Senate, they do. The House will pass a bill with a strong public plan. The Senate HELP committee's public plan will be strong; the Finance Committee's public plan will be weaker. There will be a fight about amending one of the bills to include the public plan of the other; it will be nasty, brutish and short. Arguably, the President might choose to intervene at that moment. Obama's language on the public plan has been stronger in recent weeks, which may reflect his belief that (a) there inevitably will NOT be a strong public plan in the final bill, so he can be less cautious (but still somewhat cautious), or, (b) he calculates that his support for the concept is enough to make sure that something strong enough to serve as a mechanism to hold insurance industries accountable is included.

Jul 7 2009, 1:05PM

Palin Uses Surge In Interest To Build Political List

A Google source points me to the datum that searches for Gov. Sarah Palin have spiked dramatically since her announcement last week, indeed, to their highest levels since the election. If you search for "Sarah Palin" on Google, you'll see an advertisement for her PAC, which is collecting thousands of e-mail addresses and donations. "International or not," the source says, "her team is capitalizing on her interest to build a (potentially) enormous list of supporters."


Jul 7 2009, 12:05PM

Was Palin Posed To Emulate Obama's Rise?

That's the thought of Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal, who writes that Gov. Sarah Palin's base "was big and in many ways comparable to where Obama started."  Thus, as of last week at least, she was the Republican best positioned to emulate Obama's tactical model for seeking the nomination.    Blumenthal's point is that Palin, though having the highest negatives among adults among all potential 2012 candidates, had by far the best positive ratings among Republican activists, eclipsing by more than 20 points the favorability number attached to the second-place Mitt Romney. Extrapolating a bit, we can posit that Palin starts the race -- or would have started the race -- with a hard corps of true believers, perhaps even larger than Romney's -- and had the most room to grow, at the same time. Blumenthal writes: "The Pew numbers show that Palin's base as of June 2009 was as strong as Obama's on the eve of the 2008 campaign. Consider two numbers: Palin's "very favorable" rating last month on the Pew Research survey among all adults was 15%. Obama's very favorable score among all adults on a Pew Research survey in August 2007 was 14%."

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Jul 7 2009, 11:03AM

Sotomayor "Well Qualified"

With her confirmation hearings scheduled to begin next Monday, the White House is trumpeting the American Bar Association's endorsement of Judge Sonia Sotomayor as "well qualified."

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Jul 7 2009, 9:06AM

One Man's Case For Sanford And Palin

Just when the Mark Sanford and Sarah Palin moments seem to be at a close, Stanley Fish, offers a defense of the two beleaguered Republican governors in the New York Times. His point is that their rambling, televised speeches--both so criticized--represented genuine, authentic moments without guile or cunning. Palin was hurting; Sanford was in love. "So what's the bottom line story?," Fish, a literary theorist and legal scholar, notes "Simple. Sanford is in love. Palin is in pain. Sometimes what it seems to be is what it is." Fish acknowledges that he'd never in his right mind vote for Sanford or Palin but he saves his scorn for the pundits and critics who tried to discern deeper meaning in the statements of the two governors. Was Palin really running for president in '12? Was this how Sanford thought he'd resurrect his national ambition? It was clear amidst their rambling, unstructured statements, Fish observes, that there was no master plan. 

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Jul 6 2009, 6:24PM

Useful Political Tweets Of The Day, 7/6

I follow more than 1,500 A-level tweeps so you don't have to. Some of today's more interesting tweets: 

@jduncanMACD: New Blog post from British Ambassador in Seoul, Martin Uden 'Freedom of Expression in the Digital Age' http://ow.ly/gBkw 

@CitizenCassidy Wobbly votes on Cap&Trade: Bayh Lincoln Pryor Landrieu Dorgan Byrd Rockefeller Conrad Nelson http://bit.ly/3wAQlD via @david_h_roberts 

 @Newsercrime Justice Dept. to Launch Antitrust Review of Telecoms http://u.mavrev.com/i4jt 

 @lynnsweet Sweet blog: Kal Penn talks about new job at White House http://tinyurl.com/ldnpok

 @cheeky_geeky Do amateur intelligence gatherers have better intel than the government professionals? An interesting take - http://bit.ly/V7YC3

  @cbellantoni Since today is Kal Penn's 1st day on WH payroll & I'm waiting for him on conference call, I'm officially stopping being a fan

Jul 6 2009, 5:05PM

The Atlantic And Salon Dinners: Thoughts From The Boss

The first reaction of every journalist to the story of the Washington Post's advertiser-cum-salon dinner proposal was probably one of disgust and moral superiority.  The second reaction: we've all kinda been involved in situations where that line between what we do and how we are compensated for it blurs a bit -- or is at least visible. We bring attention to our brand by reporting and writing, but we do other things, occasionally, to further the interests of the commercial enterprises that pay us. There but for the grace of our marketing department go we....Reporters often give speeches to private corporations and get paid for doing so; reporters often lend themselves to their publication's advertising team for an hour and brief a perspective client on our subjects; we invite sources to come visit the classes we teach as adjunct, for-profit professors, etc.  We participate in sponsored dinners, off-the-record dinners; roundtables; we exchange information with our sources, etc.; Each situation is different, and as a general rule, good journalists have a good gut sense about what's right and wrong. There are no written rules for our profession, only habits and customs, enforceable mostly by peer pressure and shaming.  Big deal or not, it's a topic worth exploring in an age of convergence.  Atlantic Media and its chairman -- my ultimate boss -- David Bradley -- have developed a bit of a (welcome, I think) reputation for hosting salons and forums where advertisers, officials and journalists intermix.  We ought not be afraid to talk about why we do them, and so I'm happy to say that Mr. Bradley feels the same way. After the jump, read extended excerpts from an e-mail he sent to employees today. It describes precisely what the Atlantic does, and why. It's worth reading, if only to get some more perspective on these issues. And if you agree, or disagree with David, please feel free to leave a comment. I'll make sure he gets to see them. 

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Jul 6 2009, 4:38PM

Young Republicans Scandal

It's the scandal that's rocking your world. If you happen to be young(ish), a recent college grad, a Republican, and a political activist. One of the leading candidates for president of the Young Republicans National Federation is being lambasted for alleged racial and anti-gay prejudices a week before the election. Skeptics detect a "pattern emerging from the fringe of the GOP grassroots." It's a sideshow -- one that, absent a technological medium to spread word about it and people to summon their outrage, would be nothing more interesting than an internecine political quarrel. 

The story is this: friend of candidate "A" posts racist thoughts on candidate A's Facebook wall. Candidate "A" responds with a "you tell 'em, LOL"   Subsequent to that, it's discovered that candidate "A" commented beneath a picture of a Halloween festival, "What, no Obama in a noose?" and then wondered whether liberals would get mad if Republicans posted a picture of "homosexuals in a noose," as a counterweight to a picture she'd seen of Sarah Palin in a noose.

Here's why Republicans should take this seriously. A double standard exists in American politics. Republicans have much less of a margin for error when it comes to making racially insensitive remarks. That may be fair, given the party's recent history (not its most recent history, but its Southern strategy history), or it may not be, but it exists, and it's a given, and Republicans who feel they ought not be judged by a different standard might as well move to a different country.

The Young Republican National Federation is little known outside the Republican world, but it is a fertile source of activists for the party; with the absence of young and dynamic party voices, YRNF officials go on to bigger and better things; the organization, while much attenuated (and scandal-plagued) in recent years, is the largest collection of professional young Republicans in the country. The RNC needs younger voices; the YRNF provides them.

The YRNF presidential race is a microcosm of the internal debates the party is having throughout the country. It's not easily categorized. One presidential candidate, Rachel Hoff, calls her campaign "Team Next Level."  She's recruited a diverse roster of co-candidates and wants to broaden the party's reach. Hoff recently announced her personal support for civil unions. Hoff is a coalition-builder before she's an in-your-face activist.   Hoff's opponent, Audra Shay, is the young woman whose flippancy in the face of racism is the main current of the race. Shay, a hard-changing veteran and former police officer, calls her campaign "Team Renewal," and her platform consists of a 16 point pledge to increase accountability and transparency in the organization. Both candidates have endorsements from party conservatives and moderates. Shay is generally seen as the more personally conservative of the two, although the difference is really only visible on a couple of social issues. Age is also relevant, although obliquely; Shay is 38 -- about as old as a "young" Republican can get; Hoff is 10 years younger. Some younger Republicans want to take the YRNF back from the older young Republicans.

Shay has apologized for her comments. Hoff's team, which apparently played no role in discovering the comments or in spreading them, has kept silent.  But Shay's credibility as a messenger has been damaged, and it will be interesting to see whether Young Republicans penalize her this Saturday.

Jul 6 2009, 4:22PM

Metaphor Watch: The Finger

healthcare.JPG
I wonder whether this unsubtle allusion will enter the health reform lexicon this go-round. The finger is a little much, though, right? Iconography watchers: is NR trying to say something about masculinity here?  

Jul 6 2009, 3:24PM

Tech Changes Politics Watch: US Can Down Missiles Via Net (?)

From the annals of "I'm not sure he shoulda said that," the Defense and Acquisitions Journal's Colin Clark picks up the implication of a top Air Force general's hint that the United States possess the "nascent" capability to stop surface-to-air missiles via cyberwarfare. The how is easy to imagine: we break the encryption on the navigation systems of the foreign missile and steer it off course... or we break the encryption on the firing mechanism and send a false signal that turns the bomb into a dud. Our National Security Agency spends billions of dollars on codebreaking, and the Defense Intelligence Agency runs the Central MASINT Office to exploit information about Measurement and Signature intelligence, so it's not beyond the realm of possibility that those foreign entities who have the technology to target the U.S. would know that the U.S. would be doing everything to break the encryption on the missiles...which is why they're encrypted in the first place. The point is not to go all tech-geeky on everyone... but if the U.S. is developing this capacity, or if we have this capacity but aren't broadcasting it, then a lot of our political debates about cybersecurity and missile defense are outdated and unproductive.  Also, there's a government entity called the Missile and Space Intelligence Center, based in Alabama, that tracks information about -- and works with other agencies to exploit -- the technology behind any of the 500 or so different types of missiles that exist in the world today.


Jul 6 2009, 2:51PM

Obama, Executive Orders and Detention: What's Really Going On

A week ago on Friday, the national security world shook with news, reported by the Washington Post and ProPublica, that the Obama administration was drafting an executive order that would codify or restate the president's authority to indefinitely detain those captured in war. I was skeptical: though I think Obama believes that the executive has such authority, he has, publicly and privately, argued that a solution to the question of the Guantanamo detainees -- and to the larger, more important question of the president's authority to pre-emptively detain ostensible terrorists -- must be deliberative in process and must involve a "buy in" from all three branches of government. White House officials denied that such an order was to be imminently issued, although they did not deny the gist of the first report, which was that the idea was (at the very least) being floated. A few days ago, Obama closed off that particular avenue, telling the AP that "the American people and Congress, in conjunction with my administration...[must]...come up with a structure that is not only legitimate in the eyes of our constitutional traditions, but also in the eyes of the international community."

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Jul 6 2009, 2:28PM

Healthier Rx For Health Care Reform

Just weeks after the Establishment put health care reform legislation on life support, it's out of bed and as healthy as ever -- a classic case of Daily Divination bias, where long-term trends are foretold on the basis of a few day's worth of media churn.  The full score of the Senate HELP committee bill was released by the Gods at CBO, and lo' and behold -- the bill would increase coverage significantly and would be much less expensive than previously thought. 

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Jul 6 2009, 2:27PM

How To Think About McNamara

My colleauge, Marc Ambinder, has a smart take on Robert McNamara here. It's a safe bet that Robert McNamara's death won't get the coverage afforded Farrah Fawcett or even Ed McMahon. The former Defense Secretary and Vietnam War architect led a life as big as the 20th century, from whiz kid at the Ford Motor Company through Vietnam and then on to the World Bank. His regrets and agony over Vietnam became legend in his later years and his work for liberal causes like the nuclear freeze movement of the 1980s made him an ally of those who used to protest outside his office at the Pentagon. Mickey Kaus asked in the New Republic more than 20 years ago whether any single American had done more damage than McNamara. 

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Jul 6 2009, 12:19PM

The Lasting Political Legacies Of Robert McNamara

A correspondent e-mails to point out several lasting political legacies of Robert McNamara: one was the 1986 Goldwater-Nichols Act (GNA), which codified a major change in the command structure of the military, taking away power from the service chiefs and giving it to the civilians -- the President, the Secretary of Defense (who were given direct line authority over theater commanders) and away from the military bureaucracy, which had grown either too powerful or too parochial.  Concepts like "jointness" predominated. But so did the give and take that might have led -- or might lead to -- better decisions. If the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff doesn't have to listen to the generals and is politically responsive to the president, then dissenting views -- think Eric Shinseki's at the outset of the Iraq war -- are formally given no chance to be heard. The McNamara model implies a strong secretary of defense whose principal political task is to watchdog the service chiefs and correct for their parochialism. Political appointees gained enormous informal power under McNamara and then formally under the GNA. (One underlying assumption of GNA is that previous defense secretaries were too weak to resist the demands of the service chiefs; McNamara couldn't significantly reduce manpower requests of the Army and Air Force in his later Vietnam years even though he grew increasingly convinced that the approach was wrong.) 

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Jul 6 2009, 11:40AM

Palin: Could She Take it Back?

Could Sarah Palin rescind her intent to resign? My friend and colleague, Josh Marshall, raises that intriguing possibility here. He notes that Larry Craig indicated that he intended to resign his office and then never did. (The arrested Idaho Republican did decline to run for reelection in 2008.) Could Palin, facing a bewildering array of criticism, decide at the last minute that she wants to stick around? It's unlikely, as Josh acknowledges, but it's no more erratic than Ross Perot who dropped out of the 1992 presidential race only to reenter it later. And it's no odder than the behavior of Marc Sanford in South Carolina.

It's hard to see how it would behoove Palin to suddenly take back her offer of resignation. She'd have to explain why she was so adamant about it. And Alaska Republicans would be even more sick of her. But it does have the advantage of letting her serve out her term. And she could claim, as Perot did, that she was responding to popular demand. Perot cited the public for his getting in the race the first time in 1992 and then again when he returned to the race that fall. The odd billionaire wound up with 19 percent of the popular vote, the highest garnered for a third party since 1912 and Teddy Roosevelt's Bull Mosse run for the presidency. So if the public was willing to forgive such lunacy then who's to say they wouldn't do it this time? Can I take a crack at her opening remarks?

"Gosh, the elites of this country say that you can't change your mind and rethink a major decision that has consequences for Alaska and all Americans. But they don't seem to understand what average people here in Wasilla and across the country know and that is that the freedom--yes, the freedom--to change your mind is the opposite of the so-called, quote Big Brother mentality. And what about our troops fighting for that freedom? Aren't they doing a great job? So as I made plans with Todd and everyone to start this next chapter in our lives we heard from lots of ordinary citizens who said it would be great if you helped promote freedom from outside government but why not stay in because we need more people like you? And ya know what? I listened to those people through their email and their Twitter Tweets and their Facebook and ya know what? I understood what they said. And so I've decided to make a personal sacrifice and stay on as governor where I can serve the peoples of this great state."

Video

Jul 6 2009, 10:35AM

Rush On Palin

El Rushbo concedes he doesn't why Sarah Palin resigned, but he knows that she has a brighter future than her critics anticipate.  "If Sarah Palin has any desire to do speeches, to raise money, to earn money... if she has any desire for a future in politics.... she has to do it in the lower 48."

Jul 6 2009, 9:47AM

Robert McNamara, Voltaire's Bastards And Barack Obama

Former Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara will be best known by those whose who participated in the Vietnam War as the intellectual architect of a conflict whose beginnings are still murky and whose endings provides us with endless metaphors, and lessons, for today.  What did McNamara fundamentally believe he got wrong? Nothing more, he wrote in 1995, than a misunderstanding about what America's history and traditions implied for the course of Vietnam. He had plenty of time to think about this concept, and yet he still didn't get it right. For people in Washington, McNamara's folly was an institutional folly: the belief that one smart person with a vision can see what thousands of others with experience cannot.  The fog of war, the irrationality of human nature, the limits of formal chains of command, the limits of reason itself, and a fundamental conflation of decision-making and administration. John Ralston Saul, in Volatire's Bastards, makes McNamara a central character in his tale of Western governments came to rely on a cult of credentialed, jargon-y experts to make decisions that were better left to politicians. This is not a conservative critique of the elite, per se: it's merely a meditation on the limits of what humans can do, and know, and why it is dangerous to leave major decisions in the hands of people who think they can know.  We've see a version of this fallacy play out among the central actors in our economic crisis: CEOs and experts, quants and traders, who created an orderly world from something fundamentally, almost irreducibly complex. 

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Jul 6 2009, 9:33AM

The Politics of a Second Stimulus

Three things are clear: 1) Job losses in this recession are already much worse than the Obama administration anticipated; 2) The stimulus designed to slow the pace of job losses has either proven too weak or too slow in its effectiveness; 3) The idea of passing a second stimulus, once a baby of the liberal blogosphere, has grown up to occupy the attention of major figures like George Stephanopoulos on ABC. Still, I would put my money on a second stimulus not happening, for the following three reasons:

First, the Obama administration would be going back to the Congress with some humbling data. The White House predicted that the stimulus spending would dampen unemployment, and they provided a clear graph to show just how crucial stimulus spending would be to save jobs. But the last few months have seen unemployment sky-rocket almost a full percentage point higher than the administration envisioned without a stimulus at all. This graph below could act as a kind of negative political capital, discouraging conservative Democrats from throwing more money at the recession.
actualunemployment.png Second, it's not a given that the money from a second stimulus would be spent any quicker than the first. Take a look at this graph of stimulus spending, which is provided by the Obama administration at their site recovery.gov. It seems that every week, the administration makes "available" about $6 billion and spends about $3 billion.
paidoutrecovery.png As of late June, we had only paid out about one-third of the available funds, and about 15 percent of all spending allocated in the recovery bill. To be sure, Obama has promised that the pace of spending would increase this summer. But if we can't spend all of the stimulus even by November 2010, as the administration admits, how much faster would another couple hundred billion be spent? That's a question I expect the Obama administration will have to answer if they get their second stimulus.

Third, I expect that the politics of shifting attention away from one of the three big issues of the docket -- health care, climate change and bank regulation -- are dangerous. Conservative Democrats -- and a solid majority of Americans -- are getting nervous about deficits at a time when the Obama administration is pressing them to help pass a trillion-dollar health care reform bill and a potentially even more costly climate change bill to cap carbon emmissions. Say what you want about the long-term impact of climate change and health care reform, but they're going to cost an intimidating sum over the next few years. If Obama presses for a second stimulus, I expect he'll meet plenty of resistance from his own party. Politicians should be nervous about these job losses, but come 2010, they'll be most worried about losing their own.

Jul 4 2009, 7:54PM

The Palin Thing Is Still Wacko

A day later, the Palin speech is still one of the most bizarre events in politics that one can remember. (Mark Sanford's cri de coeur is a close second.) It's still unclear if she's out of politics for good and if she's not whether she has irreparably harmed her chances of running for higher office. 
  

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Jul 3 2009, 7:58PM

What Palin's Really Up To. (Hint: She Wants To Fight.)

Assuming there is no scandal shoe about to drop, to understand what Gov. Sarah Palin is doing, we ought to begin by taking her at her word. I readily admit that her statement today wasn't terribly clear, which is quite telling itself: she doesn't quite know why she is doing what she's doing, ALL CAPS notwithstanding. She can't explain it to herself, and so she certainly can't explain it to others. But it's not that complicated to get the gist: she's "not retreating," she's advancing.  Palin, in Alaska, is a sitting duck for the people and forces she believes are ruining the country. She can't fight back -- she can't protect her family, her values, her worldview -- while she's governor.  At the same time, her desire, perhaps conscious, perhaps not,  to get into the mix -- to be invited to the fancy Washington dinners, to be courted by these very forces -- is irresistably pulling her towards the very fight she seeks. 

 

Don't make the mistake of assuming that Palin has a grand strategy that relies on subterfuge, prestidigitation or rhetorical concealment. She has few close advisers, and she is prone to ignore their advice. She keeps her own counsel. She believes what she says (and implies): that she is a national political figure, that her destiny (and I think she capitalizes the D) is in the continental 48, that her personal characteristics are mocked by the elite because the elite cannot understand them, that her family and children are subject to relentless, negative and highly damaging personal attacks, and that there is no longer a place for her in the Alaska government.

 =

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Jul 3 2009, 5:27PM

Three Theories of Palin's Resignation

Sarah Palin's stunning announcement that she'd not only decline to seek reelection as Alaska's Governor in 2010 but that she'd resign her term later this month caught everyone by surprise. After all, can you think of another presidential candidate who resigned their office to seek the presidency? Jimmy Carter and Mitt Romney had left their governorships when they sought the White House. Bill Clinton remained as Arkansas governor when he sought the presidency. George McClellan was fired by Lincoln before he ran for the presidency in 1864. The last person I can think of who left government service to run for the presidency was Dwight Eisenhower who gave up his NATO command in the Spring of 1952 and garnered the GOP presidendtial nomination a couple of months later. That's far different from cutting out of elective office 18 months before you're scheduled to leave.

Okay, so why would Palin do this on a Friday before a holday, traditionally a day for dumping bad news? A couple of theories:

1. She has more bad news to report. There's something going on with her family again. There's more to come with the state's finance. Whatever. There's no good reason for her to suddenly up and quit the governorship, her one claim on elective experience.

2. She wants the money. Palin is probably turning down tons of lucrative speaking offers, corporate boards and others ways of getting righ while she bides her time waiting for the presidency. Maybe she just cant say no to the money any longer?

3. She's totally impulsive. Assuming this wasn't a well calculated, move maybe she's just being utterly impulsive. She got sick of the job, sick of dealing with declining revenue, sick of having to stay close to Juneau and Wasilla when she really wants to be in Manchester and Des Moines.

I can't explain why Palin who abandon the people of Alaska before she finishes her first term as governor. But I suspect not that many Alaskans will be complaining.

Jul 3 2009, 10:02AM

The GOP's "Rebuilding Year"

If Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty runs for president in 2012 -- and early signs suggest he is beginning to lay that groundwork -- he'll have two clear things to offer: He's an affable Republican who's shown he can win a key state, and he's a fiscal conservative who's ready to exploit any backlash to Barack Obama's big government. In an interview at the Aspen Ideas Festival Thursday, Pawlenty presented himself as a bulwark against federal spending. "The country cannot sustain the level of financial commitments that we have now, particularly in the entitlement programs. If we don't change it, we're going to have the government equivalent of the mortgage foreclosure crisis, and it's going to come relatively soon." (Video of interview to be posted on TheAtlantic.com early next week, along with video of other interviews from the Festival.)

Pawlenty, who was on John McCain's short list for vice president, is on every great mention list for 2012 GOP candidates. "I don't know what I'm going to do be doing three years from now," demurs Pawlenty, who announced last month he will not run for a third term next year. He says he wants to travel the country and speak out on issues, but beyond that, "I don't know what my future holds."

Pawlenty acknowledged that the GOP is struggling. The president is popular, the Democrats control the government, and the GOP is the victim of several self-inflicted wounds, namely Ensign and Sanford. "If the Republican party were a sports team and the coach and general manager were sitting here, he or she would say, 'It's a rebuilding year. We gotta get some new draft picks, we gotta make some trades, we gotta do things differently.' "

One question is whether Pawlenty, a married father of two who's a convert to evangelical Christianianty, would be able to claim that his is the party of family values. Pawlenty insists it can, but concedes that Sanford makes this positioning more complex, at least for now. "For Republicans and others, if you say you're about one thing and you do something else, people don't like that. It's a basic fact of life...We're going to have to earn back the support of the American voter, that's for sure."

Jul 3 2009, 7:50AM

Obama's Inversion Of Harry And Louise

President Obama's arguments for health reform aren't without their fire-and-brimstone warnings.

As his opponents have sought to paint him as a liberal idealist, willing to spend a trillion of dollars to implement a big-government health care plan and place a big check mark on the liberal wish list, Obama has hit back on that notion hard--and he's done it, perhaps, by taking a page from the playbook of Harry and Louise.

Harry and Louise, of course, were the TV ad couple who helped torpedo the Clinton-led health reform effort in 1994, doing so with a simple message: if this reform plan goes through, your current health coverage will be taken away.

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Jul 2 2009, 4:40PM

The Democratic Party's Health Care Ad

The Democratic National Committee and Organizing for America are looking to raise money from supporters with a new TV ad promoting health care reform. Though they're asking for money to put the ad on air, the DNC isn't hurting for cash, unless you compare it to its GOP counterpart. The DNC has $12.1 million in the bank, with $5.6 million owed out, as of its latest financial disclosure. It could probably air the ad now if it wanted to, but sending it around to supporters makes for a better fundraising tool--and the RNC, by contrast, has $21.5 million with no debt. The ad went out to supporters today in a fundraising e-mail.

Holding fast to President Obama's messaging strategy on health care so far, the ad paints U.S. health care as unsustainable, with individuals attesting that, for instance, employer provided insurance only covers you until you're laid off. See the ad below:

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Jul 2 2009, 2:56PM

No Swimming Pools Or Frisbee Golf

Time's Michael Scherer illustrates Joe Biden's task in keeping stimulus spending in line. For the White House, it's critical that the $787 billion gets spent efficiently and appropriately, and it's worth noticing that we haven't heard as many rumblings about ridiculous pork projects as one might expect from a spending initiative of this size: there haven't been any major bridges to nowhere or Woodstock museums--though Sen. Tom Coburn outlined 100 examples in a report this month that, he says, are questionable. But stimulus critics seem more concerned with government borrowing and debt, and their macroeconomic effects, than whatever pork might be coming out of it; in that regard, sheriff Biden has kept the White House out of trouble.

Jul 2 2009, 12:58PM

Washington Post Draws Fire With "Salon" Series

UPDATE: Post CEO and Publisher Katharine Weymouth has canceled the series of dinners, saying, "Absolutely, I'm disappointed...This should never have happened. The fliers got out and weren't vetted. They didn't represent at all what we were attempting to do. We're not going to do any dinners that would impugn the integrity of the newsroom."

The Washington Post found itself the object of much criticism this morning after Politico's Mike Allen reported on a Post "salon" series, promising private, off-the-record, non-confrontational dinner discussions with Obama administration officials, members of Congress, and Washington Post reporters and editors, for $25,000 per person, marketed to lobbyists. "Bring your organization's CEO or executive director literally to the table," reads a flier. The dinners are to be hosted at the home of Post CEO and Publisher Katharine Weymouth; the topic of the first one, advertised int the flier, is health care.

Evidently a lobbyist felt uncomfortable with the ethics of it--a newspaper appearing to peddle influence in a $25,000-per-ticket lobbying session, serving as interlocutor between lobbyists and the White House, assuring the cooperation of its editorial staff, and perhaps the chance to influence reporters--and gave a copy of the flier to Allen. Lots of bloggers shared the sentiment. The Post's Ezra Klein, one of the paper's most notable health care experts, called it "appalling" and said he would have refused to attend, had he been invited or informed.

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Jul 2 2009, 10:24AM

Democrats To Raise Money On Twitter

The new tech wave in politics is now going a step further: Democrats are raising money directly on Twitter.

Through a new program launched by ActBlue, an online fundraising group launched in 2004 that channels online donations to Democratic candidates, Democratic supporters can make donations by tweeting the amount and the candidate or party committee they want to give it to.

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Jul 2 2009, 9:54AM

Unemployment: Still Rising, By .1 Percent

The unemployment rate continued to rise today, from 9.4 percent in May to 9.5 percent in June, with 467,000 nonfarm payroll jobs being lost. (Click here to see the Bureau of Labor Statistics report, which includes breakdowns by sector.)

It was a smaller jump than we've seen in previous months. Last month, BLS announced a rise from 8.9 percent to 9.4 percent. From November to March, the average monthly job loss total was 670,000; from April to June, it's been 436,000. Still, this month's drop in payroll employment was more than expected.

The political calculus on unemployment hasn't changed much. President Obama, in an interview with Bloomberg in June, predicted unemployment would hit 10 percent by the end of the year, giving himself some room as observers wondered when the continued job losses would begin to hurt his high standing in the public's eye.

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Jul 1 2009, 7:30PM

The Day In Politics, 7/1

Today, we learned that South Carolina Democrats are calling on Gov. Mark Sanford to resign; so are a host of others; and Sen. James Inhofe predicts no more than 35 Senate votes for the cap and trade bill.

We also pondered what Al Franken will be like as a senator; some more thoughts on Obama, Truman, and Don't Ask, Don't Tell; a court fight over detainee confessions obtained through harsh interrogations; and the recent Vanity Fair piece on Sarah Palin.

Tomorrow: President Obama departs for Camp David for the Fourth of July.

Jul 1 2009, 7:00PM

The Invisible Primary, 7/1

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Gov. Tim Pawlenty certified Al Franken as the victor in Minnesota's 2008 Senate race, and was declared by one blogger as the real winner in the race.

Jul 1 2009, 6:35PM

Court Battle: Should Harsh Interrogation Confessions Be Allowed?

That's the question Mohammad Jawad's defense attorneys are trying to answer with a motion filed Wednesday afternoon in the Guantanamo detainee's habeas petition, charting a course into some new legal territory and arguing that statements made to U.S. and Afghan interrogators should be rendered inadmissible in U.S. courts, given the conditions that yielded them.

Now that detainees can challenge their detentions in federal U.S. courts, a result of the Supreme Court's 2008 Boumediene v. Bush decision, and now that President Obama has signaled he wants to move some Guantanamo detainees into the U.S. court system, it's a question that will likely arise again.

Jawad is one of 229 detainees still at Guantanamo, and, though his age has been disputed, his attorneys estimate he was between the ages of 13 and 16 at the time of his arrest in Afghanistan in 2002. It's been suggested he was as young as 12. Nude photographs taken of Jawad in custody show an adolescent in his early teens, his attorneys say.

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Jul 1 2009, 5:21PM

Reagan, Palin And That Vanity Fair Palin Story

Lots of buzz today about my my friend Todd Purdum's story on Sarah Palin in the new issue of Vanity Fair. The story's a good reminder of the still enduring role of the monthly magazine in the age of blogs and Twitter. By going over ground that was not exactly unfamiliar--the contempt that McCain staffers felt toward their charge, the governor of Alaska--Purdum was able to find the new in the well-trod, the headline amidst what seemed to be an old story. The level of vitriol and consternation expressed toward Palin is remarkable and so is the extent to which the senior officials of the McCain campaign were continually amazed by her lack of knowledge and her audacity. She tried to make her own concession speech on election night, something that veep candidates never do, and after refusing to take no for an answer from top McCain aides, had to be told no by the Arizona Senator himself.

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Jul 1 2009, 3:13PM

Pressure Mounts on Sanford

In the wake of Gov. Mark Sanford's admission this week that he had "crossed lines" with other women, and the revelation last Thursday that he visited his Argentinian liaison while on a taxpayer-funded trip last June, the calls on Sanford to step down are growing.

A wave of calls for his resignation were issued last night and today. According to the latest head counts, at least 12 (14 according to one published count) of the state Senate's 27 Republicans are calling on him to resign--a list that includes Majority Leader Harvey Peeler, who orchestrated a letter signed by five of his colleagues yesterday. They were joined this morning by a call from at least one additional GOP senator, that one being the chairman of the Senate Ethics Committee.

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Jul 1 2009, 2:09PM

Your Thoughts On Truman, Obama And Gays In the Military

Yesterday, I noted that the Obama administration could learn a thing or two from Harry Truman's 1948 executive order integrating the military. Readers rightly noted that I left out some important variables. First, Truman didn't rush to integrate. He took office in 1945 and waited until 1948 to do the deed. Second, Obama needs congressional approval to overturn the don't-ask-don't-tell policy, and I implied that it was his prerogative alone. That's not quite right.

On the first point, I don't think it diminishes Truman's political courage or risk taking to note that he waited until 1948 to integrate the military, a far harder task than faces Obama given the virulence of Jim Crow. It's true that there were political benefits to the integration order that helped Truman win the votes of blacks who had migrated north to states where they weren't largely prevented from voting, such as Illinois. But overall it was a gamble of astonishing proportions in an election year and far riskier than anything Obama is thus far avoiding. Truman's position helped lead to the Strom Thurmond/segregationist walkout from the party. No Democrat in Congress is going to bolt over this.

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Jul 1 2009, 12:59PM

Another Problem With Bailouts -- Political Persuasion

The Washington Post today has the kind of article I hate to read. It explains that Senator Daniel Inouye (D-HI) may have used his political influence to reverse an FDIC ruling that a local bank should get bailout money. It gets worse: he helped to establish the bank and had most of his personal wealth there.

From the Post:

The bank, Central Pacific Financial, was an unlikely candidate for a program designed by the Treasury Department to bolster healthy banks. The firm's losses were depleting its capital reserves. Its primary regulator, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., already had decided that it didn't meet the criteria for receiving a favorable recommendation and had forwarded the application to a council that reviewed marginal cases, according to agency documents.

Two weeks after the inquiry from Inouye's office, Central Pacific announced that the Treasury would inject $135 million.

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Jul 1 2009, 12:53PM

Inhofe: No More Than 35 Votes For Climate Bill

The cap and trade bill that narrowly passed in the House last week won't get more than 35 votes in the Senate--despite the additional, presumed "yea" from Al Franken--according to Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK), the top Republican on the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee and formerly it's chairman. Inhofe has long been the Senate's leading global warming skeptic, and, naturally, he's against this bill. It enjoys a broader coalition of lobbying support than one might expect, as companies such as Shell and Duke energy have backed it through a business climate-change coalition orchestrated by Environmental Defense. Here's a breakdown, done by National Journal's Ron Brownstein, of where the votes came from in the House.

Jul 1 2009, 12:27PM

South Carolina Democrats Join Calls For Sanford To Resign

The South Carolina Democratic Party added its voice today to growing calls on Gov. Mark Sanford to resign today, citing Sanford's "stream of confessions" and "immoral and reprehensible behavior" as distractions from state business.

"State officials seem unable to do anything except worry and talk about Governor Sanford's extramarital affair, which we learn more about every few hours," party Chair Carol Fowler said in a statement. "South Carolina can't afford to be at a standstill for the next 18 months with a governor who ignores his job responsibilities while pursuing personal interests."

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Jul 1 2009, 10:17AM

Hitting Sanford

As Gov. Mark Sanford's story has gotten juicier with published e-mails, the revelation that he "crossed lines" with other women, and his defense of the affair with a former reporter in Argentina as "a love story--a forbidden one, a tragic one, but a love story at the end of the day," the South Carolina Democratic Party has put together a video collage (watch after the jump) of media clips on the ordeal--late night hosts riffing on Sanford, cable news anchors parsing his admission, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell dodging a question on whether Sanford should resign. Sanford ignored the same question at his press conference.

The Monica Lewinsky showed that scoring points off a sex scandal doesn't always work--sometimes, people think it shouldn't be a public or political matter. The Eliot Spitzer scandal was a bit different: the former attorney general actually did something illegal. Sanford's case has an important distinction: he disappeared to South America without announcing his departure or leaving anyone in charge, and his staff was kept (at least mostly) in the dark. The SC Democrats allege an "abuse of power," not an ethical shortcoming.

At this point, the SC Democratic Party has not yet called on Sanford to resign, though calls from Republicans are growing, as Politico's Jonathan Martin reports, and The Greenville News said the same in an editorial this morning.

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