July 5, 2009 - July 11, 2009 Archives
Jul 11 2009, 4:41PM
Holder Considers A Torture Prosecutor
The Newsweek article flatteringly portrays Holder as a "renegade" whose decision-making process is influenced by his pursuit of justice, Obama's agenda be damned. It reveals some tension between the Justice Department and the White House, although my sense is that the tension is less acute than the article portrays and more institutional than personal (One sore point: the White House counsel's office was notified about the Obama administration's first assertion of the state secrets privilege, but somebody forgot to inform the president. Such confusion in the first few weeks of an administration would be news if evidence for it were absent.)
Perhaps the article will ratchet up the tensions, since it creates a Holder v. Obama dynamic that White House press secretary Robert Gibbs will be forced to respond to on Monday, probably with a folksy quip. The White House doesn't like process stories like this one, although, on one level, the portrayal of a Justice Department independent from White House political considerations is, on balance, positive for Obama's conception of the rule of law.
Appointing a special prosecutor to investigate Bush-era policies of any sort is fraught with risk, even exempting the public and political ramifications. Investigations like these have a way of snowballing. The intelligence community will strenuously reject and resist; there are very legitimate concerns about the integrity of classified information.
If Holder decides to go ahead, he may not entirely satisfy critics of the Bush-era policies; a special prosecutor might not be given a mandate to investigate more than a handful of compartmented programs.
On the one hand, it is tough to see a prosecutor being given a mandate to determine whether former Vice President Dick Cheney ordered CIA officials to not brief Congress on a highly sensitive, classified intelligence collection program given the very real chance that the national security damage resulting from the disclosure of information about the program might be significant.
Nonetheless, it's doubtful that Holder would lean into a decision in such a public way unless he was ready to consider an option that may well have significant ramifications for the country and lay a strong precedent for future administrations.
Since the beginning of his presidential transition, Obama has been counseled by his attorneys that any such investigation is likely to be incomplete, resulting in people being charged with sins they participated it but did not originate. Even senior Justice Department officials admit that the possibility of an elected White House decision-maker like the Vice President being charged with a crime is remote. Obama would rather not see middle managers prosecuted for decisions, or crimes, of elected officials or senior political appointees. And he is very concerned with precedent. But this will not be his decision to make.
Aside from this momentous decision Holder will soon reveal, and be forced to defend, the administration's position on the state secrets privilege. Additionally, the Justice Department will release a long-awaited report on Bush administration legal policy.
Jul 11 2009, 3:20PM
The Obama Speech Newt and Rove (And America) Could Love
Jul 11 2009, 10:06AM
Prop. 8 Challenged In Court...And At The Voting Booth?
With a federal court case already gaining momentum, and with field efforts already underway for a ballot initiative, it looks like we'll see both.
A federal lawsuit is now being argued, on behalf of the American Foundation for Equal Rights by the attorneys for George W. Bush and Al Gore in the 2000 election lawsuit, Ted Olson and David Boies, who signed on the day after California's Supreme Court ruled to uphold Prop. 8.
This week, the ACLU, the National Center for Lesbian Rights, and Lambda Legal, a prominent LGBT legal group, are trying to join on.
Before this latest development, gay rights groups seemed to think a court case wasn't such a good idea, and that a ballot initiative to legalize gay marriage in 2010 or 2012 would be preferable. Now that these groups are looking to join the court fight, that's no longer the consensus.
Jul 10 2009, 4:30PM
The Jockeying For Obama's Old Senate Seat
Jul 10 2009, 2:34PM
Goodies In The New Report On NSA Surveillance
Jul 10 2009, 2:15PM
Should Medicare Pay Kidney Donors?
One of those solutions, donor chains, has already arisen with the National Kidney Registry, a small nonprofit that matches willing donors with recipients in need. When someone needs a kidney and his/her friends and relatives don't match (a common occurrance due to blood types and the development of antibodies in "sensitized" recipients), strangers with willing donors can get matched. The registry creates a matrix of people to achieve just that.
But another, more controversial suggestion, is offering financial incentives--paying people to donate kidneys. If Medicare paid for it, Postrel suggests, it could save taxpayers billions.
Jul 10 2009, 12:02PM
Winning the Sotomayor Witness Game
Jul 10 2009, 11:17AM
Interpreting The Beltway: What It Means To Say Health Care Is "Stalled"
Jul 10 2009, 10:30AM
"Pals Around With Terrorists": Palin Wasn't That Rogue, After All
Jul 10 2009, 10:09AM
Sotomayor Supported; Public Split On Whether Issues Should Dominate
But, other than Harriet Miers, previous nominees were held higher in the public's esteem. Yes/no splits on the same question were 60/26 for John Roberts, 54/30 for Samuel Alito, 53/14 for Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 52/17 for Clarence Thomas, according to previous numbers included in the CNN poll.
Buried in the findings, however, is an interesting nugget on how Americans think senators should base their votes--namely, the public is split on whether issues like abortion or gun control should determine how senators vote.
Jul 10 2009, 7:18AM
Health Care Reform Isn't Dead
Those commentators who believe that Sen. Harry Reid's leaked (therefore public) reproach to Finance Committee chairman Max Baucus was a major milestone are correct, although perhaps not for the reasons that they assume.
In a meeting of Democratic Senators, about a third of those present made it clear that they were unhappy with the direction Baucus was taking. It wasn't so much that they objected to the specific proposal he's floated to end the exclusion on taxing health care benefits, it was that Baucus's approach to crafting the finance particulars of the bill was inherently flawed and stalling the process.
Jul 10 2009, 6:30AM
Question Of The Day: A Climate Game-Changer?
Jul 9 2009, 7:00PM
The Day In Politics, 7/9
We also ruminated on how an economic rebound in 2010 could benefit Democrats; and how Sen. Al Franken's presence in the Senate doesn't mean a sure victory for labor's top priority, the Employee Free Choice Act.
Jul 9 2009, 5:49PM
What Did The CIA Hide From Congress?
In some ways, this last route is a reasonable accommodation of competing interests. If Congress believes the CIA's program is or was illegal and unethical, the single way to ensure that the program -- or the values that informed the program -- never surfaces again is to utilize public pressure, or the threat of public pressure. Transparency often conflicts with efficiency.
It's inevitable, now, that we'll soon be provided with a fairly full accounting of the covert program that director Leon Panetta discovered, stopped, and brought to Congress's attention. All the major intellireporters are on the trail. There are plenty of former IC folks who are willing to hint about the details, provided they're asked the right questions.
I don't know what the program is. No one I asked would shed any light on it. From the reports of others, though, and from guesswork derived from a knowledge of what the CIA is chartered to do (provide exclusive political intelligence (that can only be clandestinely obtained) to our political leaders about major developments), I can come up with a few possibilities.
1. We know the program had nothing to do with the terrorist interrogation program or with extraordinary rendition. We know that it was primarily a CIA program, which means that it probably did not have anything to do with Sy Hersh's "executive assassination" ring disclosures, which relate to special access programs of the Department of Defense's Joint Special Operations Command. (Basically, if the CIA wants to kill someone, it requires a finding of Congress. The Bush administration believed that the DoD could kidnap or kill suspected terrorists under the president's inherent authority.)
2. The program was not primarily a technical collection program, but it may have involved the use of technology to collect information from human sources.
3. Newsweek's sources seem to suggest that the program was related to the war on terrorism, but it might simply have been informed by the CIA's other war on terrorism programs. That is, perhaps the CIA borrowed controversial techniques and applied them to another main target, like, say, China, or Israel (yes), or Pakistan or Afghanistan or India or Venezuela.
4. What type of program would be acceptable to President Bush and objectionable to President Obama?
One can guess: perhaps the CIA found a way to covertly place information implicating Hamid Karzai's brother in various drug-related offenses in the foreign media.....perhaps the CIA was covertly providing funds to an opposition candidate in Afghanistan or Pakistan in a way that was bound to be discovered by the regime we officially support. Perhaps the CIA created a front company to process, say, the encryption keys that Israeli's Air Force uses to protect communications. (Israel manufacturers this stuff endogenously, but you can be sure that the American government wants to know everything it possibly can about Israeli Air Force strategy vis-a-vis Iran.) Perhaps the program involved sabotage in a country like Syria, which the U.S. is currently trying to court. Perhaps it involved the planting of covert communications devices on unwitting international scholars who travel to North Korea.
The mind wanders.
What's clear is that Democrats on the committee were sufficiently outraged by the disclosure to make public the fact that something was disclosed. This may be the only way to hold the CIA accountable in an era where the executive branch refuses to relax briefing procedures. It may be irresponsible and jeopardize ongoing operations. It may be related to the CIA v. Pelosi grudge match. Soon enough, we'll have our answers.
Jul 9 2009, 5:45PM
The Invisible Primary, 7/9
The Iowa Republican Party wants Sarah Palin to attend a fundraiser; she doesn't have another job lined up despite offers to host her own talk show, her attorney told The Washington Post; and Jeb Bush accused President Obama of having concealed his "secret plan" to raise deficits during the campaign.
Jul 9 2009, 5:28PM
Question of the Day, Answered
Jul 9 2009, 2:45PM
Credit Cards: It's Not Over
Jul 9 2009, 12:30PM
Coleman Will Have Some Rebuilding To Do
Jul 9 2009, 10:59AM
Even With Sen. Franken, Employee Free Choice Act Is Stuck
Jul 9 2009, 10:02AM
Should Incumbent Senators Be Worried about 2010?
Jul 9 2009, 9:59AM
Sanford Vs. The Polls
Jul 9 2009, 6:28AM
Question Of The Day: Will Obama Sign Health Reform?
Jul 8 2009, 7:00PM
The Day In Politics, 7/8
We also considered a case against polling; a choice between health care and a second stimulus; what Sotomayor's confirmation process will look like; a former Defense Dept. lawyer's proposal for handling detainees; and President Obama's approval dip in Ohio.
Jul 8 2009, 4:47PM
Clash With Congress: Obama Threatens Veto Of Intelligence Funding Bill
The provision, section 321 of the Intelligence Authorization Act of 2010, would require intelligence agencies to brief all members of the House and Senate intelligence committees virtually every sensitive classified project, including "special access programs" that have traditionally been orally briefed to the "Gang of 8," the chairs ranking members of the intel committees, the Speaker and Minority Leader of the House of Representatives, and the majority and minority leaders of the Senate.
The same provision allows Congress, not the administration, to restrict the briefings in extraordinary circumstances.
This seemingly small change to the law is what's provoked the veto threat. The Obama administration, like all previous administrations of the modern era, believe that the president, and only the president, has the power to determine what constitutes national security information and, even more vitally, what safeguards ought to be in place to protect the information.
Section 321 chips away at that power and simultaneously expands the scope of the briefings that the administration would be required to give.
Jul 8 2009, 4:45PM
Hospitals On Board; Health Care Sounds Better From White House Than From The Hill
The groups were: the American Hospital Association, Hospital Corporation of America, Community Health Systems, the Catholic Health Association of the United States.
Like President Obama's announcement in May that a slew of industry players had pledged $2 tillion in cost cutting over the same time period, today's event was about showing that industry groups are on board with the premise, at least, of Obama's health care agenda--that costs are unsustainable. Contrasted to the frenetic ups and downs of health care reform efforts on the Hill, today's message was simple, and easy to digest.
Jul 8 2009, 4:19PM
Catastrophic Attacks Disrupted.... And Then What?
Jul 8 2009, 3:38PM
Sotomayor's Allies
I spoke with a Democratic Senator just after Sotomayor made her first round of courtesy calls to Judiciary Committee members. He's not someone who would oppose Sotomayor in any event but he said something which was quite interesting: Sotomayor was incredibly charming, collegial. For him, it helped put to rest the idea that she was somehow uncollegial. "She'll be really potent in conference," the Senator told me, referring to the sessions where the Justices hammer out how they'll vote.
Sotomayor will rightfully get questioned about the New Haven Firefighters case where the Court reversed the Second Circuit ruling and struck down the Connecticut city's aggressive affirmative action plan. She'll get knocked around a bit for her "wise Latina" comments. But she seems heading to an incredibly smooth hearing next week. I'll be especially interested to watch Orin Hatch who was a vocal advocate for Steven Breyer and Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Will he be on board for Sotomayor. I'm sure conservative stalwarts like Jon Kyl and Jeff Sessions will vote against her. There's a reflexive wing in both parties. (Bill Bradley voted against David Souter.) But Hatch is the swing vote I'll watch. And even if he decides to lay down a marker against her, it'll be a pretty easy set of hearings.
Jul 8 2009, 3:37PM
White House Very Skeptical About "Second Stimulus"
Jul 8 2009, 12:59PM
Sarah Palin--Tweeting Up A Storm
Today,try this: "Act in accordance to your conscience -risk- by pursuing larger vision in opposition to popular, powerful pressure"-unknown about 1 hour ago from TwitterBerry
Couple of thoughts for the day on beautiful bright AK morn:"You have to sacrifice to win. That's my philosophy in 6 words."- George Allen. about 2 hours ago from TwitterBerry
...NO ONE can measure DC's 1st attempt @ growing debt to "fix" prob. AK seeks development, industry, jobs for econ recovery vs growing govt about 2 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Talk in DC of a 2nd "Stimulus" Pkg: Impacts on AK? We'd be partaking in even more Big Govt largess & immoral natl debt accumulation when...about 2 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Jul 8 2009, 12:30PM
A Second Stimulus Or Health Care?
Paul Krugman asks why favoring a second stimulus, like opposing the Iraq War, has been written out of the public argument. Now, I seem to remember a very robust and lengthy public argument about the war, which couldn't have persisted without opponents. But leaving that aside, what about the stimulus?
Well, it is starting to get some traction. But it probably won't get much, and here's why: Democrats aren't interested. They aren't interested because they are already facing political pressure over the debt. Doing another stimulus will--or so they think--make it much harder for them to do health care and climate change. Their initial thesis that a big, bold spending program would "prime the pump" for more big, bold spending programs has fallen flat. The stimulus is working too slowly, probably because little money has yet been dispensed, which has made further spending programs less, not more, popular.A question for Paul Krugman and other stimulus proponents: would you rather have a second stimulus, or health care? I know that in an ideal universe you wouldn't have to choose, but assume that the worrywarts are right, and you do. Which should Obama get done?
That's a genuine question, and one that I think congressional democrats and Democratic wonks should probably be more conflicted about than they apparently are. Not to concern troll, but it's a genuinely tricky, and interesting, political question. If you think a second stimulus will work, and is needed, then you're risking the 2010 midterms and the 2012 election if you don't do it. On the other hand, what's the point of electing Democrats if they can't get a single major program passed?
Jul 8 2009, 11:01AM
Polling And The Herd Mentality
[O]f perhaps greatest concern: the outcome of one poll can affect future polls and behavior. As behavioral scientists and economists are fond of pointing out--in books like Nudge and Predictably Irrational--popular behavior can snowball. Public-health campaigns emphasizing how few teenagers smoke are more effective in deterring teen smoking than those that emphasize lung cancer or bad breath. Likewise, the perception that a candidate or political position is popular today will make the candidate or position more popular in the future. As Cass Sunstein and Richard Thaler put it in Nudge, "Nothing is worse than a perception that voters are leaving a candidate in droves." Voters should be free to switch allegiances whenever they want, but they should do so for substantive reasons, not because they're following the flock.
Jul 8 2009, 9:47AM
Detainee Policy: Inside The Task Force
The participants are diverse: there are tough-as-nails intelligence types. FBI interrogators who've been on the front lines. Academics. Civil libertarians. State Department officials who are sensitive to international opinion. Defense department attorneys who live and breath the Uniformed Code of Military Justice.
To illustrate the central dilemma this team must consider, some task force staff members have created a semi-fictional scenario involving a most-wanted terrorist bad guy who is located in a foreign country.
Somewhat tetchily, a few of them have chosen Thailand, a country known to have permitted the CIA to operate a black prison site.
The scenario proceeds roughly as follows: in cooperation with Thai intelligence, the United States discovers that a known al Qaeda operative is noodling around in Chang Mai.
Thailand, of course, is not contiguous to any battlefield. Preventing this person from committing an act of terrorism is a paramount national security concern.
But the laws are very ambiguous and so are the ethics. It is not at all clear that the person can be arrested by Thai authorities, extradited to the U.S. and then tried in a federal court. Perhaps the intelligence was obtained through extraordinary methods; perhaps a foreign government obtained the location (later validated) through torture; perhaps the U.S. has a very well-placed human source inside the Thai-terrorism nexus. What to do? The Bush administration had a simple answer: send in the commandos -- i.e., the Joint Special Operations Command -- kidnap them, or kill them, or have them transferred to military custody and parked in a cell for the rest of their lives. The Bush administration used JSOC teams to kidnap or kill suspected terrorists in Yemen and Somalia.
In the task force's hypothetical example, the person has not yet committed a terrorist act against the United States but does belong to a terrorist organization. In theory, the person could be captured and held by the United States under the authority Congress granted to the President in its 2001 authorization for the use of military force.
However, the law is also fairly plain about geography: the terrorist in Thailand who has yet to commit an act of terror (one can be a terrorist without acting on the impulse) is not covered by the AUMF and may not be covered by U.S. criminal law either. So what's a president to do? Sending in the special ops commandos is quick and efficient, but it draws on an as-yet untested claim that the president has the inherent authority to kidnap and/or kill anyone his executive branch deems to be a threat. Obama, in a recent AP interview, doesn't like this option. It is the apogee of the unitary executive theory.
And yet, the president has a constitutional duty to do something, and he has a moral imperative to prevent an attack on the United States.
On first glance, the laws of war and criminal law seem inadequate. That's why several scholars have proposed to codify the president's authority to capture and detain threats to the country but do so in a way that involves the political institutions and does not circumvent them. Proposals being floated include special national security courts, or periodic status reviews. Congress would facilitate the creation of these mechanisms by passing a law. The argument in favor of this approach proceeds from the assumption that the president does have the authority to do this, but that he lacks legitimacy unless he involves the other branches of government and cedes some of his power.
There's a big legal problem with this approach. As lawyers for detainees are finding out, the judiciary branch has been extraordinarily deferential to the executive branch when it considers matters of national security, especially the question as to whether something or someone constitutes a national security threat. Almost without hesitation, courts, up to and including the Supreme Court, have given the executive branch an enormous degree of latitude. Legislation that would question this presidential power -- the power to define national security threats -- would face an immediate court challenge; it is hard to see the White House signing off on a proposal that would throw out 50 years of precedent and take away authority that presidents before George W. Bush have claimed.
For Gude and Martin, the question of whether the president has the authority to indefinitely detain untriable Guantanamo Bay-held combatants is moot at this point. Hesitatingly, they concede that the decisions made by the Bush administration have tied Obama's hands very snugly.
"We respectfully urge that consideration of such cases should not be the basis for adopting far-reaching policies with substantial counterterrorism costs that are likely to far outweigh any short-term benefits from continuing to detain such individuals," they argue in the brief, which was obtained by the Atlantic.
But they part company on the critical question of whether the president needs any additional authority. They do not believe there is anything terribly magical about terrorism so as to jerry-rig any new court review or supra-congressional authority onto the existing cannons of law and practice. Any preventative detention system, they argue, is not only "illegitimate" from a legal perspective, it will be seen as such by the world, thereby exacerbating the climate that allows terrorists to recruit against America.
So what can the president do in the case of the Thai would-be terrorist? Three options. He can ask the Thai government to detain and try the man. America's image as the world's antiterror cop easily morphed into something much worse: the image of America being at war with Muslims. Having other countries participate in the trials and detentions of terrorist suspects would internationalize the concept of antiterrorism, and it would prevent these countries from using America's eagerness to fight terror as a way to kick out some of their undesirable political dissidents.
Or, the President could instruct the FBI to build a case -- a parallel case -- against the suspect. This would take more time and lots of resources, but it would certainly legitimize the capture and detention of a dangerous person. The FBI is, in fact, working to build many cases like this right now because of a similar imperative to try as many Gitmo detainees in federal courts as possible.
Or, the President could try something novel: the CIA, or the FBI, could inform the terrorist that he or she is being monitored. Britain has employed this tactic on occasion, and is has stopped many plots. It's dangerous, of course, and may only lead to the terrorist in question becoming more secretive and paranoid. But it's an option.
The task force will present its conclusions to the White House in a few weeks. Most likely, it will outline a variety of options consistent with the president's charge. Where is Obama leaning? The answer depends on whether he believes that modern terrorism is a sui generis threat; whether the granting or codifying of a new executive detention authority will be abused in the wrong hands; whether the current law is sufficient to deal with the problem. It also matters, quite frankly, who gives him advice.
My sense is that the President hasn't decided yet. That presents an opportunity for everyone -- lawyers, activists, ordinary citizens -- to influence one of the most important decisions Obama will make.
Jul 8 2009, 9:46AM
Grading Obama On A Curve In Ohio
Quinnipiac pegged Obama's approval rating in Ohio at about the same level where it stood nationally back in May. Since then his national approval rating has declined, but according to Quinnipiac, it's dropped like a stone in Ohio.
Jul 8 2009, 8:26AM
The Spy Who Tweeted Me
Jul 7 2009, 8:15PM
Why Unemployment Could Hit 14%
Jul 7 2009, 4:54PM
Terrorism Law Update: Jeppesen, Al-Haramin, And State Secrets
Jul 7 2009, 3:30PM
Are Americans Becoming More Conservative? They Think So, But...
Jul 7 2009, 2:37PM
An Ohio Outlier?
Jul 7 2009, 2:24PM
We Interrupt This Visit To Russia To Bring You A Statement On Health Care
" 'The goal is to have a means and a mechanism to keep the private insurers honest. ... The goal is non-negotiable; the path is' negotiable."
"I am pleased by the progress we're making on health care reform and still believe, as I've said before, that one of the best ways to bring down costs, provide more choices, and assure quality is a public option that will force the insurance companies to compete and keep them honest. I look forward to a final product that achieves these very important goals." [emphasis added.]"
Jul 7 2009, 1:05PM
Palin Uses Surge In Interest To Build Political List
Jul 7 2009, 12:05PM
Was Palin Posed To Emulate Obama's Rise?
Jul 7 2009, 11:03AM
Sotomayor "Well Qualified"
Jul 7 2009, 9:06AM
One Man's Case For Sanford And Palin
Jul 6 2009, 6:24PM
Useful Political Tweets Of The Day, 7/6
Jul 6 2009, 5:05PM
The Atlantic And Salon Dinners: Thoughts From The Boss
Jul 6 2009, 4:38PM
Young Republicans Scandal
The story is this: friend of candidate "A" posts racist thoughts on candidate A's Facebook wall. Candidate "A" responds with a "you tell 'em, LOL" Subsequent to that, it's discovered that candidate "A" commented beneath a picture of a Halloween festival, "What, no Obama in a noose?" and then wondered whether liberals would get mad if Republicans posted a picture of "homosexuals in a noose," as a counterweight to a picture she'd seen of Sarah Palin in a noose.
Here's why Republicans should take this seriously. A double standard exists in American politics. Republicans have much less of a margin for error when it comes to making racially insensitive remarks. That may be fair, given the party's recent history (not its most recent history, but its Southern strategy history), or it may not be, but it exists, and it's a given, and Republicans who feel they ought not be judged by a different standard might as well move to a different country.
The YRNF presidential race is a microcosm of the internal debates the party is having throughout the country. It's not easily categorized. One presidential candidate, Rachel Hoff, calls her campaign "Team Next Level." She's recruited a diverse roster of co-candidates and wants to broaden the party's reach. Hoff recently announced her personal support for civil unions. Hoff is a coalition-builder before she's an in-your-face activist. Hoff's opponent, Audra Shay, is the young woman whose flippancy in the face of racism is the main current of the race. Shay, a hard-changing veteran and former police officer, calls her campaign "Team Renewal," and her platform consists of a 16 point pledge to increase accountability and transparency in the organization. Both candidates have endorsements from party conservatives and moderates. Shay is generally seen as the more personally conservative of the two, although the difference is really only visible on a couple of social issues. Age is also relevant, although obliquely; Shay is 38 -- about as old as a "young" Republican can get; Hoff is 10 years younger. Some younger Republicans want to take the YRNF back from the older young Republicans.
Shay has apologized for her comments. Hoff's team, which apparently played no role in discovering the comments or in spreading them, has kept silent. But Shay's credibility as a messenger has been damaged, and it will be interesting to see whether Young Republicans penalize her this Saturday.
Jul 6 2009, 4:22PM
Metaphor Watch: The Finger
I wonder whether this unsubtle allusion will enter the health reform lexicon this go-round. The finger is a little much, though, right? Iconography watchers: is NR trying to say something about masculinity here?
Jul 6 2009, 3:24PM
Tech Changes Politics Watch: US Can Down Missiles Via Net (?)
Jul 6 2009, 2:51PM
Obama, Executive Orders and Detention: What's Really Going On
Jul 6 2009, 2:28PM
Healthier Rx For Health Care Reform
Jul 6 2009, 2:27PM
How To Think About McNamara
Jul 6 2009, 12:19PM
The Lasting Political Legacies Of Robert McNamara
Jul 6 2009, 11:40AM
Palin: Could She Take it Back?
It's hard to see how it would behoove Palin to suddenly take back her offer of resignation. She'd have to explain why she was so adamant about it. And Alaska Republicans would be even more sick of her. But it does have the advantage of letting her serve out her term. And she could claim, as Perot did, that she was responding to popular demand. Perot cited the public for his getting in the race the first time in 1992 and then again when he returned to the race that fall. The odd billionaire wound up with 19 percent of the popular vote, the highest garnered for a third party since 1912 and Teddy Roosevelt's Bull Mosse run for the presidency. So if the public was willing to forgive such lunacy then who's to say they wouldn't do it this time? Can I take a crack at her opening remarks?
"Gosh, the elites of this country say that you can't change your mind and rethink a major decision that has consequences for Alaska and all Americans. But they don't seem to understand what average people here in Wasilla and across the country know and that is that the freedom--yes, the freedom--to change your mind is the opposite of the so-called, quote Big Brother mentality. And what about our troops fighting for that freedom? Aren't they doing a great job? So as I made plans with Todd and everyone to start this next chapter in our lives we heard from lots of ordinary citizens who said it would be great if you helped promote freedom from outside government but why not stay in because we need more people like you? And ya know what? I listened to those people through their email and their Twitter Tweets and their Facebook and ya know what? I understood what they said. And so I've decided to make a personal sacrifice and stay on as governor where I can serve the peoples of this great state."
Video
Jul 6 2009, 10:35AM
Rush On Palin
Jul 6 2009, 9:47AM
Robert McNamara, Voltaire's Bastards And Barack Obama
Jul 6 2009, 9:33AM
The Politics of a Second Stimulus
First, the Obama administration would be going back to the Congress with some humbling data. The White House predicted that the stimulus spending would dampen unemployment, and they provided a clear graph to show just how crucial stimulus spending would be to save jobs. But the last few months have seen unemployment sky-rocket almost a full percentage point higher than the administration envisioned without a stimulus at all. This graph below could act as a kind of negative political capital, discouraging conservative Democrats from throwing more money at the recession.
Second, it's not a given that the money from a second stimulus would be spent any quicker than the first. Take
a look at this graph of stimulus spending, which is provided by the
Obama administration at their site recovery.gov. It seems that every
week, the administration makes "available" about $6 billion and spends
about $3 billion.
As of late June, we had only paid out about one-third of the available
funds, and about 15 percent of all spending allocated in the recovery
bill. To be sure, Obama has promised that the pace of spending would
increase this summer. But if we can't spend all of the stimulus even by
November 2010, as the administration admits, how much faster would
another couple hundred billion be spent? That's a question I expect the
Obama administration will have to answer if they get their second
stimulus.Third, I expect that the politics of shifting attention away from one of the three big issues of the docket -- health care, climate change and bank regulation -- are dangerous. Conservative Democrats -- and a solid majority of Americans -- are getting nervous about deficits at a time when the Obama administration is pressing them to help pass a trillion-dollar health care reform bill and a potentially even more costly climate change bill to cap carbon emmissions. Say what you want about the long-term impact of climate change and health care reform, but they're going to cost an intimidating sum over the next few years. If Obama presses for a second stimulus, I expect he'll meet plenty of resistance from his own party. Politicians should be nervous about these job losses, but come 2010, they'll be most worried about losing their own.
