Politics with Marc Ambinder

July 5, 2009 - July 11, 2009 Archives

Jul 11 2009, 4:41PM

Holder Considers A Torture Prosecutor

A Justice Department official confirms Newsweek's report that Attorney General Eric Holder is leaning towards appointing a special prosecutor to investigate Bush administration-era torture and interrogation policies. Newsweek's Dan Klaidman cites four departmental sources, and Holder himself, as admitting that, after a review of the programs, Holder began to consider an investigation, even though President Obama and Obama's top aides oppose any sanctioned look back at the policies of his predecessor. When Obama asked Holder, a longtime friend, to become attorney general, Holder extracted a promise -- perhaps extracted is too tough of a term because Obama readily agreed -- that the White House would not interfere with the Department's decisions about whether to launch investigations, according to two people with knowledge of the encounter. When it comes to setting and refining judicial policy, the White House counsel's office plays the lead role. But Holder and his deputies get to decide whom to prosecute.

The Newsweek article flatteringly portrays Holder as a "renegade" whose decision-making process is influenced by his pursuit of justice, Obama's agenda be damned. It reveals some tension between the Justice Department and the White House, although my sense is that the tension is less acute than the article portrays and more institutional than personal (One sore point: the White House counsel's office was notified about the Obama administration's first assertion of the state secrets privilege, but somebody forgot to inform the president. Such confusion in the first few weeks of an administration would be news if evidence for it were absent.)

Perhaps the article will ratchet up the tensions, since it creates a Holder v. Obama dynamic that White House press secretary Robert Gibbs will be forced to respond to on Monday, probably with a folksy quip. The White House doesn't like process stories like this one, although, on one level, the portrayal of a Justice Department independent from White House political considerations is, on balance, positive for Obama's conception of the rule of law.

Appointing a special prosecutor to investigate Bush-era policies of any sort is fraught with risk, even exempting the public and political ramifications. Investigations like these have a way of snowballing. The intelligence community will strenuously reject and resist; there are very legitimate concerns about the integrity of classified information.

If Holder decides to go ahead, he may not entirely satisfy critics of the Bush-era policies; a special prosecutor might not be given a mandate to investigate more than a handful of compartmented programs.

On the one hand, it is tough to see a prosecutor being given a mandate to determine whether former Vice President Dick Cheney ordered CIA officials to not brief Congress on a highly sensitive, classified intelligence collection program given the very real chance that the national security damage resulting from the disclosure of information about the program might be significant.

Nonetheless, it's doubtful that Holder would lean into a decision in such a public way unless he was ready to consider an option that may well have significant ramifications for the country and lay a strong precedent for future administrations.

Since the beginning of his presidential transition, Obama has been counseled by his attorneys that any such investigation is likely to be incomplete, resulting in people being charged with sins they participated it but did not originate. Even senior Justice Department officials admit that the possibility of an elected White House decision-maker like the Vice President being charged with a crime is remote. Obama would rather not see middle managers prosecuted for decisions, or crimes, of elected officials or senior political appointees. And he is very concerned with precedent. But this will not be his decision to make.

Aside from this momentous decision Holder will soon reveal, and be forced to defend, the administration's position on the state secrets privilege. Additionally, the Justice Department will release a long-awaited report on Bush administration legal policy.

Jul 11 2009, 3:20PM

The Obama Speech Newt and Rove (And America) Could Love

You don't have to be a conservative Republican to think President Obama gave an extraordinary speech in Ghana today. But conservative reaction to the address has already been favorable. Newt Gingrich wrote on Twitter that "The Obama speech in ghana is a very positive speech about importance of self government and responsibility of Africans for their own future." Karl Rove noted that Obama praised George W. Bush's increase of HIV/AIDS assistance to Africa. The speech, which was the highlight of the president's one-day visit to Africa, had obvious emotional import from the start--the first African-American president, the son of a Kenyan, comes to the country where so many slaves began their journey to North America. (After his speech, Obama visited the famed gate of no-return where so many slaves departed Africa for the West.)

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Jul 11 2009, 10:06AM

Prop. 8 Challenged In Court...And At The Voting Booth?

After a challenge to the Proposition 8 gay marriage ban was struck down by California's Supreme Court in May, there was debate among gay rights groups on what to do next. A federal court challenge? A ballot initiative to overturn it in 2010? The same in 2012?

With a federal court case already gaining momentum, and with field efforts already underway for a ballot initiative, it looks like we'll see both.

A federal lawsuit is now being argued, on behalf of the American Foundation for Equal Rights by the attorneys for George W. Bush and Al Gore in the 2000 election lawsuit, Ted Olson and David Boies, who signed on the day after California's Supreme Court ruled to uphold Prop. 8.

This week, the ACLU, the National Center for Lesbian Rights, and Lambda Legal, a prominent LGBT legal group, are trying to join on.

Before this latest development, gay rights groups seemed to think a court case wasn't such a good idea, and that a ballot initiative to legalize gay marriage in 2010 or 2012 would be preferable. Now that these groups are looking to join the court fight, that's no longer the consensus.

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Jul 10 2009, 4:30PM

The Jockeying For Obama's Old Senate Seat

The jockeying to replace Roland Burris as the next United States Senator from Illinois continues. Earlier this week, Democrats were bummed to hear that the state's attorney general, Lisa Madigan, was going to decline to run for the seat being held by Burris and that used to be held by a fellow named Barack Obama. Republicans were doubly encouraged to hear that Mark Kirk, a relatively moderate and popular Republican congressman from the state, was likely to get in the race. Now, Chris Cillizza at The Washington Post is reporting that Kirk is not going to get in the race after all. Why does this matter? Because the race for a seat vacated by a president is important. 

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Jul 10 2009, 2:34PM

Goodies In The New Report On NSA Surveillance

Inspectors general from across the Justice and intelligence communities have released a major, revealing report about the controversial National Security Agency domestic collection program that the New York Times disclosed in 2005.  The unclassified version of the report, which you can read here, contains intruging hints about the program's origins, the internal debates about its use, and the scope of its activities. We know that the "TSP" was simply one part of the "President's Surveillance Program," as the IGs, somewhat neutrally, label it.  The CIA and FBI were privy to the raw intercepts.   Some highlights, from a quick glance:

** Many senior intelligence officials said they weren't sure whether the program contributed to successful terrorism prosecutions, although the IGs found some (classified) evidence that, in certain cases, it did. (pp. 34).

** The NSA's general counsel's office regular reviewed the "target folders" -- i.e., the identities of those under surveillance -- to make sure the program complied with the instruction to surveill those reasonably assumed to have connections to Al Qaeda. They did this by sampling a number of the folders at random. What does that tell us? Quite simply... that the number of persons who were targets inside the United States was pretty darn big... if the NSA's management couldn't individually determine whether each target met the legal criteria.  (pp. 19, and my interpretation.)

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Jul 10 2009, 2:15PM

Should Medicare Pay Kidney Donors?

As President Obama focuses on rising costs in his efforts to overhaul the U.S. health care system, Virginia Postrel points to a particularly costly area of health care--dialysis treatment for patients awaiting kidney transpants--and suggests some solutions.

One of those solutions, donor chains, has already arisen with the National Kidney Registry, a small nonprofit that matches willing donors with recipients in need. When someone needs a kidney and his/her friends and relatives don't match (a common occurrance due to blood types and the development of antibodies in "sensitized" recipients), strangers with willing donors can get matched. The registry creates a matrix of people to achieve just that.

But another, more controversial suggestion, is offering financial incentives--paying people to donate kidneys. If Medicare paid for it, Postrel suggests, it could save taxpayers billions.

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Jul 10 2009, 12:02PM

Winning the Sotomayor Witness Game

Generally, the witnesses in a Supreme Court confirmation hearing take a backseat to the nominee himself. Sure, there was Anita Hill and all of the drama surrounding Clarence Thomas's extraordinary confirmation hearings. But can you remember anything about those who testified for or against Sam Alito or Ruth Bader Ginsburg? I couldn't. In general, it's the interplay between the senators and the nominees themselves that attracts attention. But this time it could be different. Both sides have tapped big guns for and against the nomination of Sonia Sotomayor to be the first Hispanic and only the third female associate justice in the history of the Supreme Court. I'd give a slight edge to the GOP, for sheer cleverness in designing their witness list. Here's why.

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Jul 10 2009, 11:17AM

Interpreting The Beltway: What It Means To Say Health Care Is "Stalled"

It's worth clarifying the language I'm using to describe the status of major health care reform legislation. What provokes my repetitive posts on why health care isn't dead are journalists and commentators who conflate the sludge of negotiations and Congressional lawmaking with their being a "lack of progress" or who interpret public disagreements -- such as the Blue Dog Democrat demands on taxes -- as evidence that legislation has "stalled." or "set back."  This metaphor envisions a road. At the start is nothing; at the end is a perfect (from the standpoint of some unknown entity) bill.  You can never go sideways, or diagonally, or underground, only forward or backward. The end of health care is zero-sum, of course; either there's a bill or there's not So, in a technical sense, legislation that is delayed on a calendar is "stalled." 

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Jul 10 2009, 10:30AM

"Pals Around With Terrorists": Palin Wasn't That Rogue, After All

In the mail this morning was an advanced copy of Dan Balz and Haynes Johnson's extremely well-reported history of the 2008 presidential campaign: The Battle for America is what the two veteran Posties have called it. The book will be published on August 4; Balz and Johnson will talk about it on Meet the Press on August 2.  There are plenty of scoops, and I can't resisting sharing just one involving a critical phase of the campaign in early October of 2008. 

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Jul 10 2009, 10:09AM

Sotomayor Supported; Public Split On Whether Issues Should Dominate

Judge Sonia Sotomayor enjoys the public's support, a CNN/Opinion Research poll reported this morning; 47 percent of the 1,026 respondents said she should be confirmed, 40 said she shouldn't, and 13 percent were unsure.

But, other than Harriet Miers, previous nominees were held higher in the public's esteem. Yes/no splits on the same question were 60/26 for John Roberts, 54/30 for Samuel Alito, 53/14 for Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 52/17 for Clarence Thomas, according to previous numbers included in the CNN poll.

Buried in the findings, however, is an interesting nugget on how Americans think senators should base their votes--namely, the public is split on whether issues like abortion or gun control should determine how senators vote.

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Jul 10 2009, 7:18AM

Health Care Reform Isn't Dead

My favorite health care reporters have gone into "concerned" mode again about the fate of health care reform legislation. I decided to recanvass the sources who've convinced me that reform is alive and kicking to see whether the fundamentals of the debate have changed over the past two weeks.  The answer is mixed.

Those commentators who believe that Sen. Harry Reid's leaked (therefore public) reproach to Finance Committee chairman Max Baucus was a major milestone are correct, although perhaps not for the reasons that they assume.

In a meeting of Democratic Senators, about a third of those present made it clear that they were unhappy with the direction Baucus was taking. It wasn't so much that they objected to the specific proposal he's floated to end the exclusion on taxing health care benefits, it was that Baucus's approach to crafting the finance particulars of the bill was inherently flawed and stalling the process.

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Jul 10 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: A Climate Game-Changer?

The G-8 agreed on some climate goals this week ahead of its December conference in Copenhagen, though they're not binding; when they sit down for more serious talks, will President Obama be a factor? Will his presidency, and the U.S. shift toward greener ambitions, change the geopolitics of climate change?

Jul 9 2009, 7:00PM

The Day In Politics, 7/9

Today, we learned that South Carolinians think Mark Sanford should resign, though he isn't planning to; Norm Coleman isn't polling too well after conceding his legal battle; and Sen. Chris Dodd asked regulators to prepare to enforce a provision that could protect credit cardholders from rate increases before the new credit card legislation takes effect.

We also ruminated on how an economic rebound in 2010 could benefit Democrats; and how Sen. Al Franken's presence in the Senate doesn't mean a sure victory for labor's top priority, the Employee Free Choice Act.

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Jul 9 2009, 5:49PM

What Did The CIA Hide From Congress?

Because the executive branch retains a stranglehold on regulations about the disclosure of classified information, there are very few ways for member of Congress who learn about objectionable, classified programs to reveal their discomfort. They can write a classified letter. They can risk prosecution by revealing the information publicly. Or they can do what a gaggle of House Democrats did yesterday: band together, suggest that the CIA misled them about a specific program, and wait for journalists to uncover the details. 

In some ways, this last route is a reasonable accommodation of competing interests. If Congress believes the CIA's program is or was illegal and unethical, the single way to ensure that the program -- or the values that informed the program -- never surfaces again is to utilize public pressure, or the threat of public pressure. Transparency often conflicts with efficiency.

It's inevitable, now, that we'll soon be provided with a fairly full accounting of the covert program that director Leon Panetta discovered, stopped, and brought to Congress's attention. All the major intellireporters are on the trail. There are plenty of former IC folks who are willing to hint about the details, provided they're asked the right questions.

I don't know what the program is. No one I asked would shed any light on it.  From the reports of others, though, and from guesswork derived from a knowledge of what the CIA is chartered to do (provide exclusive political intelligence (that can only be clandestinely obtained) to our political leaders about major developments), I can come up with a few possibilities.

1. We know the program had nothing to do with the terrorist interrogation program or with extraordinary rendition. We know that it was primarily a CIA program, which means that it probably did not have anything to do with Sy Hersh's "executive assassination" ring disclosures, which relate to special access programs of the Department of Defense's Joint Special Operations Command.   (Basically, if the CIA wants to kill someone, it requires a finding of Congress. The Bush administration believed that the DoD could kidnap or kill suspected terrorists under the president's inherent authority.)

2. The program was not primarily a technical collection program, but it  may have involved the use of technology to collect information from human sources.

3. Newsweek's sources seem to suggest that the program was related to the war on terrorism, but it might simply have  been informed by the CIA's other war on terrorism programs. That is, perhaps the CIA borrowed controversial techniques and applied them to another main target, like, say, China, or Israel (yes), or Pakistan or Afghanistan or India or Venezuela.

4. What type of program would be acceptable to President Bush and objectionable to President Obama? 

One can guess: perhaps the CIA found a way to covertly place information implicating Hamid Karzai's brother in various drug-related offenses in the foreign media.....perhaps the CIA was covertly providing funds to an opposition candidate in Afghanistan or Pakistan in a way that was bound to be discovered by the regime we officially support.   Perhaps the CIA created a front company to process, say, the encryption keys that Israeli's Air Force uses to protect communications. (Israel manufacturers this stuff endogenously, but you can be sure that the American government wants to know everything it possibly can about Israeli Air Force strategy vis-a-vis Iran.)   Perhaps the program involved sabotage in a country like Syria, which the U.S. is currently trying to court.  Perhaps it involved the planting of covert communications devices on unwitting international scholars who travel to North Korea.

The mind wanders.

What's clear is that Democrats on the committee were sufficiently outraged by the disclosure to make public the fact that something was disclosed.  This may be the only way to hold the CIA accountable in an era where the executive branch refuses to relax briefing procedures.  It may be irresponsible and jeopardize ongoing operations. It may be related to the CIA v. Pelosi grudge match.  Soon enough, we'll have our answers.

Jul 9 2009, 5:45PM

The Invisible Primary, 7/9

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

The Iowa Republican Party wants Sarah Palin to attend a fundraiser; she doesn't have another job lined up despite offers to host her own talk show, her attorney told The Washington Post; and Jeb Bush accused President Obama of having concealed his "secret plan" to raise deficits during the campaign.

Jul 9 2009, 5:28PM

Question of the Day, Answered

Some reader responses to our Question of the Day, which was: How optimistic are you that President Obama will sign health care reform legislation into law by the end of the year? If so, why? If not, why not?

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Jul 9 2009, 2:45PM

Credit Cards: It's Not Over

Though credit card reformers mustered widespread support for legislation that will limit the abilities of credit card companies to raise rates and impose over-the-limit fees willy nilly, the battle isn't over; now that the bill has been signed into law, efforts to keep a leash on credit card companies has shifted into the regulatory realm. That's where Sen. Chris Dodd, the Senate's champion of reform, has taken his latest request for more government monitoring of the industry, with a letter to the heads of Fed, FDIC, the Office of Thrift Supervision, the National Credit Union Administration, and to the comptroller of the currency, worried by news that card companies are squeezing customers before the new law takes effect next year, nine months from its signing in May.

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Jul 9 2009, 12:30PM

Coleman Will Have Some Rebuilding To Do

By the end of it, people were tired of the protracted recount process and court battle that left Minnesota with only one U.S. senator until last week, and it's taken a toll on former Sen. Norm Coleman's opinion ratings. He is viewed unfavorably by 52 percent of Minnesotans and favorably by 38 percent, according to a new survey by Public Policy Polling. (Caveat: PPP conducts automated polling via telephone, with respondents pressing buttons to indicate their opinions. This is viewed as less reliable by some pollsters and journalists, but, in horse-race polling, Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal has deemed it as accurate as using live interviewers. Today's poll includes results from 1,419 Minnesotans July 7-8, margin of errod +/- 2.5 percent.)

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Jul 9 2009, 10:59AM

Even With Sen. Franken, Employee Free Choice Act Is Stuck

The arrival of Al Franken is encouraging supporters of the Employee Free Choice Act, but the bill remains stuck in the Senate. Franken has signed on as a co-sponsor of the bill and announced as much to cheers at an AFL-CIO event in his honor on Tuesday night. But the problem that's plagued the bill for months still remains: 60 Democrats don't support it and the Republicans are determined to filibuster the measure, which has united the business community like nothing else in recent memory. Among those Democratic Senate votes still trying to be nailed down are Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Arlen Specter, Jim Webb and Mark Warner of Virginia, Michael Bennet of Colorado, and Ben Nelson of Nebraska. Dianne Feinstein has been less than enthusiastic about the proposal, which is sometimes called Card Check. No Republicans are backing the bill. Chuck Schumer of New York and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid are trying to find a compromise that can get the 60 votes. With Robert Byrd and Ted Kennedy in ailing health, the proposition is even dicier.

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Jul 9 2009, 10:02AM

Should Incumbent Senators Be Worried about 2010?

Via Matthew Yglesias, we have this report from the IMF with a very simple story: This recession is slowing, but recovery will be sluggish -- especially in the world's advanced economies, where the hurt has been deepest. Yglesias concludes: "If I were an incumbent U.S. Senator running for re-election in 2010 I would be terrified by these projections." Is that right?

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Jul 9 2009, 9:59AM

Sanford Vs. The Polls

As a spokesman for Mark Sanford says the governor will stay on and try to "buil[d] back the trust of South Carolinians," polls indicate people think he should resign, The State reports, citing Rasmussen and SurveyUSA. Meanwhile, an "impeach Sanford" rally will be held today at the State House...it was organized by a Democratic activist, but Republicans have issued some of the more prominent calls for Sanford to step down, with the S.C. Senate Majority Leader orchestrating a letter asking for the governor's resignation June 30. Should be interesting to see how many Republicans attend, voicing those calls in a rally atmosphere that could be comprised mostly of Democrats, rather than in letters and statements to the press.

Jul 9 2009, 6:28AM

Question Of The Day: Will Obama Sign Health Reform?

How optimistic are you that President Obama will sign health care reform legislation into law by the end of the year? If so, why? If not, why not?

Jul 8 2009, 7:00PM

The Day In Politics, 7/8

Today, we learned that Alexander Allan, head of Britain's Joint Intelligence Committee, is on Twitter; Sarah Palin did some tweeting of her own; the White House is very skeptical of a second stimulus; and hospital groups pledged to cut $155 billion of health care costs over 10 years.

We also considered a case against polling; a choice between health care and a second stimulus; what Sotomayor's confirmation process will look like; a former Defense Dept. lawyer's proposal for handling detainees; and President Obama's approval dip in Ohio.

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Jul 8 2009, 4:47PM

Clash With Congress: Obama Threatens Veto Of Intelligence Funding Bill

The Obama administration has threatened to veto the funding bill for US intelligence agencies because the House included a provision that would increase the number of members who receive briefings on highly secretive covert operations. 

The provision, section 321 of the Intelligence Authorization Act of 2010, would require intelligence agencies to brief all members of the House and Senate intelligence committees virtually every sensitive classified project, including "special access programs" that have traditionally been orally briefed to the "Gang of 8," the chairs ranking members of the intel committees, the Speaker and Minority Leader of the House of Representatives, and the majority and minority leaders of the Senate.

The same provision allows Congress, not the administration, to restrict the briefings in extraordinary circumstances.

This seemingly small change to the law is what's provoked the veto threat. The Obama administration, like all previous administrations of the modern era, believe that the president, and only the president, has the power to determine what constitutes national security information and, even more vitally, what safeguards ought to be in place to protect the information. 

Section 321 chips away at that power and simultaneously expands the scope of the briefings that the administration would be required to give.

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Jul 8 2009, 4:45PM

Hospitals On Board; Health Care Sounds Better From White House Than From The Hill

The White House took the latest step today in its efforts to ease everyone into the idea that its health care designs will succeed by the end of August, and that there's real momentum behind its goal to pass significant--in fact, unprecedented--reforms, as several groups joined Vice President Joe Biden and Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius for a press conference at the White House compound, pledging to save $155 billion in health care costs over the next ten years, through payment reforms and reducing hospitals' annual inflationary updates.

The groups were: the American Hospital Association, Hospital Corporation of America, Community Health Systems, the Catholic Health Association of the United States.

Like President Obama's announcement in May that a slew of industry players had pledged $2 tillion in cost cutting over the same time period, today's event was about showing that industry groups are on board with the premise, at least, of Obama's health care agenda--that costs are unsustainable. Contrasted to the frenetic ups and downs of health care reform efforts on the Hill, today's message was simple, and easy to digest.

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Jul 8 2009, 4:19PM

Catastrophic Attacks Disrupted.... And Then What?

On the knotty question of prolonged or indefinite detentions, is there a middle ground between those who want to codify an expansion of oresidential power and those who believe that existing laws, fully exploited, are sufficient? Into the debate comes Madeline Morris, a former senior Defense Department detainee affairs lawyer. She's circulating a proposal called the Counterterrorism Detention, Treatment and Release Act, which she contends will satisfy constitutional, moral and legal criteria laid out by President Obama. 

Morris sides with those who believe that existing criminal statutes are appropriate for most, but not all, terrorism prosecutions. But she is sympathetic to the worry that creating a forward-looking detention framework that does not retroactively address -- or account for -- the detention and disposition of Guantanamo detainees, would be illegitimate and constitutionally troublesome.

Detainees -- those "engaging in armed catastrophic" attacks against the U.S. -- would be held in conditions equal to detention facilities for prisoners of war. (That means, in essence, that they could not be held in supermax facilities.) The appeal of this approach is that it avoids a definitional battle over who gets sent where. Interestingly, Morris locates the detention authority in the judicial branch. Here's how it would work:

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Jul 8 2009, 3:38PM

Sotomayor's Allies

Emily Bazelon has a great and revealing interview with Ruth Bader Ginsburg in the upcoming edition of The New York Times Magazine. Most of it centers on the role of women on the court, all of which is interesting. The full-throated endorsement of Sonia Sotomayor is itself interesting, the gentle ribbing of Breyer and Scalia as aggressive questioners on the Court and her deep affection for the late Chief Justice WIlliam Rehnquist and her thoughts on his growing sensitivity to feminist causes all make for good reading on the Sotomayor hearings. It's hard to believe that the interview wasn't timed to help Sotomayor not that she needs much help.

I spoke with a Democratic Senator just after Sotomayor made her first round of courtesy calls to Judiciary Committee members. He's not someone who would oppose Sotomayor in any event but he said something which was quite interesting: Sotomayor was incredibly charming, collegial. For him, it helped put to rest the idea that she was somehow uncollegial. "She'll be really potent in conference," the Senator told me, referring to the sessions where the Justices hammer out how they'll vote.

Sotomayor will rightfully get questioned about the New Haven Firefighters case where the Court reversed the Second Circuit ruling and struck down the Connecticut city's aggressive affirmative action plan. She'll get knocked around a bit for her "wise Latina" comments. But she seems heading to an incredibly smooth hearing next week. I'll be especially interested to watch Orin Hatch who was a vocal advocate for Steven Breyer and Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Will he be on board for Sotomayor. I'm sure conservative stalwarts like Jon Kyl and Jeff Sessions will vote against her. There's a reflexive wing in both parties. (Bill Bradley voted against David Souter.) But Hatch is the swing vote I'll watch. And even if he decides to lay down a marker against her, it'll be a pretty easy set of hearings.


Jul 8 2009, 3:37PM

White House Very Skeptical About "Second Stimulus"

More Congressional Democrats voiced concerns today about the pace of the economic recovery, but the White House is holding firm against the idea of a second major stimulus intervention. Two administration officials say the President will wait at least six months before deciding whether to support a second stimulus package. Still, some administration officials and allies concede that two tactical errors were committed during the stimulus battle, although they were perhaps unavoidable. As the Vice President said this weekend, White House economists underestimated how bad things were (as did everyone else, of course, aside from a privileged few.)  Secondly, and perhaps more pertinent to today's debate, officials arguably oversold the stimulus package's inherent efficiency. Their words and deeds differed; the administration was careful to say that the economic recovery wouldn't be instantaneous, but, at the same time, it was politically critical to sell the stimulus by highlighting how quickly certain monies would be spent.  ("Shovel ready" conjures up a picture of a worker, with a shovel in hand, waiting for the green light. The reality is more prosaic.)

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Jul 8 2009, 12:59PM

Sarah Palin--Tweeting Up A Storm

Perhaps seeking to reinforce the points she made at her resignation press conference Friday, Sarah Palin has had some interesting things to say on Twitter today (see her feed here):

Today,try this: "Act in accordance to your conscience -risk- by pursuing larger vision in opposition to popular, powerful pressure"-unknown about 1 hour ago from TwitterBerry

Couple of thoughts for the day on beautiful bright AK morn:"You have to sacrifice to win. That's my philosophy in 6 words."- George Allen. about 2 hours ago from TwitterBerry

...NO ONE can measure DC's 1st attempt @ growing debt to "fix" prob. AK seeks development, industry, jobs for econ recovery vs growing govt about 2 hours ago from TwitterBerry

Talk in DC of a 2nd "Stimulus" Pkg: Impacts on AK? We'd be partaking in even more Big Govt largess & immoral natl debt accumulation when...about 2 hours ago from TwitterBerry

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Jul 8 2009, 12:30PM

A Second Stimulus Or Health Care?

Paul Krugman asks why favoring a second stimulus, like opposing the Iraq War, has been written out of the public argument.  Now, I seem to remember a very robust and lengthy public argument about the war, which couldn't have persisted without opponents.  But leaving that aside, what about the stimulus?

Well, it is starting to get some traction.  But it probably won't get much, and here's why:  Democrats aren't interested.  They aren't interested because they are already facing political pressure over the debt.  Doing another stimulus will--or so they think--make it much harder for them to do health care and climate change.  Their initial thesis that a big, bold spending program would "prime the pump" for more big, bold spending programs has fallen flat.  The stimulus is working too slowly, probably because little money has yet been dispensed, which has made further spending programs less, not more, popular.

A question for Paul Krugman and other stimulus proponents:  would you rather have a second stimulus, or health care?  I know that in an ideal universe you wouldn't have to choose, but assume that the worrywarts are right, and you do.  Which should Obama get done?

That's a genuine question, and one that I think congressional democrats and Democratic wonks should probably be more conflicted about than they apparently are.  Not to concern troll, but it's a genuinely tricky, and interesting, political question.  If you think a second stimulus will work, and is needed, then you're risking the 2010 midterms and the 2012 election if you don't do it.   On the other hand, what's the point of electing Democrats if they can't get a single major program passed?

Jul 8 2009, 11:01AM

Polling And The Herd Mentality

At the Atlantic Special Ideas Report, Conor Clarke makes a case against polling, for, among other reasons, polls' ability to influence mass opinion by reflecting it, accurately or inaccurately, and to effect a herd mentality:

[O]f perhaps greatest concern: the outcome of one poll can affect future polls and behavior. As behavioral scientists and economists are fond of pointing out--in books like Nudge and Predictably Irrational--popular behavior can snowball. Public-health campaigns emphasizing how few teenagers smoke are more effective in deterring teen smoking than those that emphasize lung cancer or bad breath. Likewise, the perception that a candidate or political position is popular today will make the candidate or position more popular in the future. As Cass Sunstein and Richard Thaler put it in Nudge, "Nothing is worse than a perception that voters are leaving a candidate in droves." Voters should be free to switch allegiances whenever they want, but they should do so for substantive reasons, not because they're following the flock.

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Jul 8 2009, 9:47AM

Detainee Policy: Inside The Task Force

On the day after his inauguration, President Obama instructed his attorney general and chief legal advisers to create a new framework for detention that would be binding upon his predecessors and consistent with American law.  For six months, the task force's small professional staff and its members have met in secure Justice Department conference rooms.
The participants are diverse: there are tough-as-nails intelligence types. FBI interrogators who've been on the front lines. Academics.  Civil libertarians. State Department officials who are sensitive to international opinion. Defense department attorneys who live and breath the Uniformed Code of Military Justice.

To illustrate the central dilemma this team must consider, some task force staff members have created a semi-fictional scenario involving a most-wanted terrorist bad guy who is located in a foreign country.

Somewhat tetchily, a few of them have chosen Thailand, a country known to have permitted the CIA to operate a black prison site.

The scenario proceeds roughly as follows: in cooperation with Thai intelligence, the United States discovers that a known al Qaeda operative is noodling around in Chang Mai.

Thailand, of course, is not contiguous to any battlefield. Preventing this person from committing an act of terrorism is a paramount national security concern.

But the laws are very ambiguous and so are the ethics. It is not at all clear that the person can be arrested by Thai authorities, extradited to the U.S. and then tried in a federal court. Perhaps the intelligence was obtained through extraordinary methods; perhaps a foreign government obtained the location (later validated) through torture; perhaps the U.S. has a very well-placed human source inside the Thai-terrorism nexus. What to do? The Bush administration had a simple answer: send in the commandos -- i.e., the Joint Special Operations Command -- kidnap them, or kill them, or have them transferred to military custody and parked in a cell for the rest of their lives. The Bush administration used JSOC teams to kidnap or kill suspected terrorists in Yemen and Somalia. 

In the task force's hypothetical example, the person has not yet committed a terrorist act against the United States but does belong to a terrorist organization.    In theory, the person could be captured and held by the United States under the authority Congress granted to the President in its 2001 authorization for the use of military force.

However, the law is also fairly plain about geography: the terrorist in Thailand who has yet to commit an act of terror (one can be a terrorist without acting on the impulse) is not covered by the AUMF and may not be covered by U.S. criminal law either.  So what's a president to do? Sending in the special ops commandos is quick and efficient, but it draws on an as-yet untested claim that the president has the inherent authority to kidnap and/or kill anyone his executive branch deems to be a threat. Obama, in a recent AP interview, doesn't like this option. It is the apogee of the unitary executive theory. 

And yet, the president has a constitutional duty to do something, and he has a moral imperative to prevent an attack on the United States. 

On first glance, the laws of war and criminal law seem inadequate.  That's why several scholars have proposed to codify the president's authority to capture and detain threats to the country but do so in a way that involves the political institutions and does not circumvent them. Proposals being floated include special national security courts, or periodic status reviews. Congress would facilitate the creation of these mechanisms by passing a law. The argument in favor of this approach proceeds from the assumption that the president does have the authority to do this, but that he lacks legitimacy unless he involves the other branches of government and cedes some of his power.

There's a big legal problem with this approach. As lawyers for detainees are finding out, the judiciary branch has been extraordinarily deferential to the executive branch when it considers matters of national security, especially the question as to whether something or someone constitutes a national security threat. Almost without hesitation, courts, up to and including the Supreme Court, have given the executive branch an enormous degree of latitude. Legislation that would question this presidential power -- the power to define national security threats -- would face an immediate court challenge; it is hard to see the White House signing off on a proposal that would throw out 50 years of precedent and take away authority that presidents before George W. Bush have claimed.

In May, some members of the task force asked two outside experts, Kate Martin and Ken Gude of the Center for National Security Studies and the  Center for American Progress to submit a memorandum on the Thailand question and the scope of the president's authority.

For Gude and Martin, the question of whether the president has the authority to indefinitely detain untriable Guantanamo Bay-held combatants is moot at this point. Hesitatingly, they concede that the decisions made by the Bush administration have tied Obama's hands very snugly.

"We respectfully urge that consideration of such cases should not be the basis for adopting far-reaching policies with substantial counterterrorism costs that are likely to far outweigh any short-term benefits from continuing to detain such individuals," they argue in the brief, which was obtained by the Atlantic.

But they part company on the critical question of whether the president needs any additional authority. They do not believe there is anything terribly magical about terrorism so as to jerry-rig any new court review or supra-congressional authority onto the existing cannons of law and practice. Any preventative detention system, they argue, is not only "illegitimate" from a legal perspective, it will be seen as such by the world, thereby exacerbating the climate that allows terrorists to recruit against America. 

So what can the president do in the case of the Thai would-be terrorist?  Three options. He can ask the Thai government to detain and try the man. America's image as the world's antiterror cop easily morphed into something much worse: the image of America being at war with Muslims.  Having other countries participate in the trials and detentions of terrorist suspects would internationalize the concept of antiterrorism, and it would prevent these countries from using America's eagerness to fight terror as a way to kick out some of their undesirable political dissidents.

Or, the President could instruct the FBI to build a case -- a parallel case -- against the suspect. This would take more time and lots of resources, but it would certainly legitimize the capture and detention of a dangerous person. The FBI is, in fact, working to build many cases like this right now because of a similar imperative to try as many Gitmo detainees in federal courts as possible.

Or, the President could try something novel: the CIA, or the FBI, could inform the terrorist that he or she is being monitored. Britain has employed this tactic on occasion, and is has stopped many plots. It's dangerous, of course, and may only lead to the terrorist in question becoming more secretive and paranoid.  But it's an option.

The task force will present its conclusions to the White House in a few weeks. Most likely, it will outline a variety of options consistent with the president's charge. Where is Obama leaning?  The answer depends on whether he believes that modern terrorism is a sui generis threat; whether the granting or codifying of a new executive detention authority will be abused in the wrong hands; whether the current law is sufficient to deal with the problem.  It also matters, quite frankly, who gives him advice.

My sense is that the President hasn't decided yet.  That presents an opportunity for everyone -- lawyers, activists, ordinary citizens -- to influence one of the most important decisions Obama will make.

Jul 8 2009, 9:46AM

Grading Obama On A Curve In Ohio

Marc asked yesterday whether the Quinnipiac Poll showing President Obama's approval rating well below the national average was an outlier. Without more polls from Ohio or similar states that's tough to answer, but Quinnipiac polls Ohio from last year were outliers--in favor of Obama.

Quinnipiac pegged Obama's approval rating in Ohio at about the same level where it stood nationally back in May. Since then his national approval rating has declined, but according to Quinnipiac, it's dropped like a stone in Ohio.

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Jul 8 2009, 8:26AM

The Spy Who Tweeted Me

This appears to be the authentic Twitter avatar of a man named Alexander Allan, who, as head of Britain's Joint Intelligence Committee, is that nation's spy chief. (The job is analogous to the Director of National Intelligence.)  He's lived a fascinating, tragic, and mystery-filled life. And he's a Deadhead, to boot. 

Jul 7 2009, 8:15PM

Why Unemployment Could Hit 14%

Today unemployment stands at 9.5 percent. That's awful, and it's far worse than the Obama administration envisioned at this point, even without a nearly $800 billion stimulus package passed in January. But it's not the worst we've had in the last 30 years. In late 1982, unemployment hit 10.8 percent. Some economists suspect we could hit that mark by early next year. How high could unemployment climb in this recession? Twelve percent? Thirteen percent? Here's the argument for a 14 percent peak:

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Jul 7 2009, 4:54PM

Terrorism Law Update: Jeppesen, Al-Haramin, And State Secrets

The ACLU filed its argument opposing an en banc hearing for the major state secrets privilege case, Mohamed et. al. v. Jeppesen DataPlan.  In May, the Justice Department urged the 9th Circuit to overturn the decision of three of its members that the case, which involves Jeppessen's role in the government's extraordinary rendition program, should proceed. The Bush administration and the Obama administration have argued that it cannot, for reasons of national security. The Obama administration's position is at odds with the President's official position on the state secrets privilege -- he does not believe it ought to be used to throw out cases before they begin -- and the administration fears a Supreme Court battle. 

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Jul 7 2009, 3:30PM

Are Americans Becoming More Conservative? They Think So, But...

Conservatives trumpet, and liberals pooh-pooh, this latest Gallup survey of American ideological self-assessment. It includes that although Americans say they're becoming more conservative, they're not voting that way, and they're not acting that way. I think George Will's classic saying is relevant here: Americans tend to be temperamental conservatives and operational liberals.  

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Jul 7 2009, 2:37PM

An Ohio Outlier?

I asked a White House official to respond to a poll from Quinnipiac of adults in Ohio showing a fairly significant downturn in President Obama's job favorability ratings. More data is needed, the official said, before conclusions can be made.  That's true. But you can bet that it was included in their morning reading. For those who want to know, the pollsters asked about Obama before they asked about the voters' perceptions of the economy in the state...although after they asked 24 other questions about state political races.  Nationally, Obama's approval ratings among adults are averaging around 57%, with his unfavorables holding steady at about a third of the public. If anyone comes across other reliable state polling on Obama's job approval numbers, please send them along. 

Jul 7 2009, 2:24PM

We Interrupt This Visit To Russia To Bring You A Statement On Health Care

Or -- why hasn't the White House figured out a clearer way to say what it wants to say?

White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal

" 'The goal is to have a means and a mechanism to keep the private insurers honest. ... The goal is non-negotiable; the path is' negotiable."

 Barack Obama, in a statement released from Mother Russia:

 "I am pleased by the progress we're making on health care reform and still believe, as I've said before, that one of the best ways to bring down costs, provide more choices, and assure quality is a public option that will force the insurance companies to compete and keep them honest. I look forward to a final product that achieves these very important goals." [emphasis added.]" 

Translation: a bill that expands access and cut costs is a higher priority than a bill that does both and includes a public plan. That said, a bill must contain some way to pressure the insurance industry to keep costs down and improve quality. The political realities in Congress right now preclude the president from being more specific. Also: given that the public plan question is one of several unresolved debates, the White House wants to save its political capital for other questions, like payment reform, taxing health benefits (i.e., capping the exclusion), employer/individual mandate penalties (pay or play) and more. 

Background: The White House is sensitive to three counter-pressuring forces. One: a health care bill probably won't pass the house without a public plan option. Two: a health care bill probably can't attract 60 votes in the Senate with the version of the public plan that passes the house. The White House, here, is looking at the conference negotiations -- the end game. They're letting the House be the House and the Senate be the Senate. A White House intervention in favor of a robust, competitive public plan would doom the bill in the Senate. Three: what Obama wants. The President wants a bill with a public option and which has the support from --and buy in from -- all stakeholders. If given the option of having a bill with a strong public plan and no support -- indeed, intense opposition from -- the insurance industry, or a bill with a weak public plan and plenty of industry support (and Republican votes), Obama would choose the latter. Critically, though, Obama and the White House are relying on Karen Ignani and others to build Republican support for the bill. If the industry can't bring along any Republican votes, it makes no sense to give them a veto option on a public plan. 

The "mechanism to keep private insurers honest" is the goal, of course, of a universally available and government-subsidized public plan. When the public (a big majority of the public) tells pollsters they support a public plan, they're saying they support a "mechanism There are other ways to achieve this goal: government regulations, hybrid public-private plans, experimental public plans, cooperatives (maybe). To be clear, one of the problems is etymological. There is so thing as a "public plan." It is a concept that requires details: who would get access to it? Would providers be forced to participate? How much would they be compensated? Would the government subsidize it? When would it kick in? And would it work as promised? If it's poorly written, it'll simply shift costs to the public, something the White House won't tolerate. If it's used along with Medicare and Medicaid to experiment with payment reforms, maybe they will. Last week, former Sen. Tom Daschle issued a warning of sorts to the insurance industry: Democrats will be less willing to play ball if Republicans refuse to meet them halfway. The message: the insurance industry needs to get Republicans on board, or else Democrats will, when writing the final bill, be tempted to write legislation that the industry will not only be unable to support but will find quite distasteful. 

The big question mark is reconciliation. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Budget chairman Kent Conrad say that the anti-filibuster process simply isn't applicable to most health care legislation, and because reconciled provisions would sunset after five years, the reforms would be impermanent and probably not enforceable. If Democrats need only 50 Senate votes, then they don't need to worry about the President's language now. But if they need 60 votes in the Senate, they do. The House will pass a bill with a strong public plan. The Senate HELP committee's public plan will be strong; the Finance Committee's public plan will be weaker. There will be a fight about amending one of the bills to include the public plan of the other; it will be nasty, brutish and short. Arguably, the President might choose to intervene at that moment. Obama's language on the public plan has been stronger in recent weeks, which may reflect his belief that (a) there inevitably will NOT be a strong public plan in the final bill, so he can be less cautious (but still somewhat cautious), or, (b) he calculates that his support for the concept is enough to make sure that something strong enough to serve as a mechanism to hold insurance industries accountable is included.

Jul 7 2009, 1:05PM

Palin Uses Surge In Interest To Build Political List

A Google source points me to the datum that searches for Gov. Sarah Palin have spiked dramatically since her announcement last week, indeed, to their highest levels since the election. If you search for "Sarah Palin" on Google, you'll see an advertisement for her PAC, which is collecting thousands of e-mail addresses and donations. "International or not," the source says, "her team is capitalizing on her interest to build a (potentially) enormous list of supporters."


Jul 7 2009, 12:05PM

Was Palin Posed To Emulate Obama's Rise?

That's the thought of Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal, who writes that Gov. Sarah Palin's base "was big and in many ways comparable to where Obama started."  Thus, as of last week at least, she was the Republican best positioned to emulate Obama's tactical model for seeking the nomination.    Blumenthal's point is that Palin, though having the highest negatives among adults among all potential 2012 candidates, had by far the best positive ratings among Republican activists, eclipsing by more than 20 points the favorability number attached to the second-place Mitt Romney. Extrapolating a bit, we can posit that Palin starts the race -- or would have started the race -- with a hard corps of true believers, perhaps even larger than Romney's -- and had the most room to grow, at the same time. Blumenthal writes: "The Pew numbers show that Palin's base as of June 2009 was as strong as Obama's on the eve of the 2008 campaign. Consider two numbers: Palin's "very favorable" rating last month on the Pew Research survey among all adults was 15%. Obama's very favorable score among all adults on a Pew Research survey in August 2007 was 14%."

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Jul 7 2009, 11:03AM

Sotomayor "Well Qualified"

With her confirmation hearings scheduled to begin next Monday, the White House is trumpeting the American Bar Association's endorsement of Judge Sonia Sotomayor as "well qualified."

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Jul 7 2009, 9:06AM

One Man's Case For Sanford And Palin

Just when the Mark Sanford and Sarah Palin moments seem to be at a close, Stanley Fish, offers a defense of the two beleaguered Republican governors in the New York Times. His point is that their rambling, televised speeches--both so criticized--represented genuine, authentic moments without guile or cunning. Palin was hurting; Sanford was in love. "So what's the bottom line story?," Fish, a literary theorist and legal scholar, notes "Simple. Sanford is in love. Palin is in pain. Sometimes what it seems to be is what it is." Fish acknowledges that he'd never in his right mind vote for Sanford or Palin but he saves his scorn for the pundits and critics who tried to discern deeper meaning in the statements of the two governors. Was Palin really running for president in '12? Was this how Sanford thought he'd resurrect his national ambition? It was clear amidst their rambling, unstructured statements, Fish observes, that there was no master plan. 

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Jul 6 2009, 6:24PM

Useful Political Tweets Of The Day, 7/6

I follow more than 1,500 A-level tweeps so you don't have to. Some of today's more interesting tweets: 

@jduncanMACD: New Blog post from British Ambassador in Seoul, Martin Uden 'Freedom of Expression in the Digital Age' http://ow.ly/gBkw 

@CitizenCassidy Wobbly votes on Cap&Trade: Bayh Lincoln Pryor Landrieu Dorgan Byrd Rockefeller Conrad Nelson http://bit.ly/3wAQlD via @david_h_roberts 

 @Newsercrime Justice Dept. to Launch Antitrust Review of Telecoms http://u.mavrev.com/i4jt 

 @lynnsweet Sweet blog: Kal Penn talks about new job at White House http://tinyurl.com/ldnpok

 @cheeky_geeky Do amateur intelligence gatherers have better intel than the government professionals? An interesting take - http://bit.ly/V7YC3

  @cbellantoni Since today is Kal Penn's 1st day on WH payroll & I'm waiting for him on conference call, I'm officially stopping being a fan

Jul 6 2009, 5:05PM

The Atlantic And Salon Dinners: Thoughts From The Boss

The first reaction of every journalist to the story of the Washington Post's advertiser-cum-salon dinner proposal was probably one of disgust and moral superiority.  The second reaction: we've all kinda been involved in situations where that line between what we do and how we are compensated for it blurs a bit -- or is at least visible. We bring attention to our brand by reporting and writing, but we do other things, occasionally, to further the interests of the commercial enterprises that pay us. There but for the grace of our marketing department go we....Reporters often give speeches to private corporations and get paid for doing so; reporters often lend themselves to their publication's advertising team for an hour and brief a perspective client on our subjects; we invite sources to come visit the classes we teach as adjunct, for-profit professors, etc.  We participate in sponsored dinners, off-the-record dinners; roundtables; we exchange information with our sources, etc.; Each situation is different, and as a general rule, good journalists have a good gut sense about what's right and wrong. There are no written rules for our profession, only habits and customs, enforceable mostly by peer pressure and shaming.  Big deal or not, it's a topic worth exploring in an age of convergence.  Atlantic Media and its chairman -- my ultimate boss -- David Bradley -- have developed a bit of a (welcome, I think) reputation for hosting salons and forums where advertisers, officials and journalists intermix.  We ought not be afraid to talk about why we do them, and so I'm happy to say that Mr. Bradley feels the same way. After the jump, read extended excerpts from an e-mail he sent to employees today. It describes precisely what the Atlantic does, and why. It's worth reading, if only to get some more perspective on these issues. And if you agree, or disagree with David, please feel free to leave a comment. I'll make sure he gets to see them. 

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Jul 6 2009, 4:38PM

Young Republicans Scandal

It's the scandal that's rocking your world. If you happen to be young(ish), a recent college grad, a Republican, and a political activist. One of the leading candidates for president of the Young Republicans National Federation is being lambasted for alleged racial and anti-gay prejudices a week before the election. Skeptics detect a "pattern emerging from the fringe of the GOP grassroots." It's a sideshow -- one that, absent a technological medium to spread word about it and people to summon their outrage, would be nothing more interesting than an internecine political quarrel. 

The story is this: friend of candidate "A" posts racist thoughts on candidate A's Facebook wall. Candidate "A" responds with a "you tell 'em, LOL"   Subsequent to that, it's discovered that candidate "A" commented beneath a picture of a Halloween festival, "What, no Obama in a noose?" and then wondered whether liberals would get mad if Republicans posted a picture of "homosexuals in a noose," as a counterweight to a picture she'd seen of Sarah Palin in a noose.

Here's why Republicans should take this seriously. A double standard exists in American politics. Republicans have much less of a margin for error when it comes to making racially insensitive remarks. That may be fair, given the party's recent history (not its most recent history, but its Southern strategy history), or it may not be, but it exists, and it's a given, and Republicans who feel they ought not be judged by a different standard might as well move to a different country.

The Young Republican National Federation is little known outside the Republican world, but it is a fertile source of activists for the party; with the absence of young and dynamic party voices, YRNF officials go on to bigger and better things; the organization, while much attenuated (and scandal-plagued) in recent years, is the largest collection of professional young Republicans in the country. The RNC needs younger voices; the YRNF provides them.

The YRNF presidential race is a microcosm of the internal debates the party is having throughout the country. It's not easily categorized. One presidential candidate, Rachel Hoff, calls her campaign "Team Next Level."  She's recruited a diverse roster of co-candidates and wants to broaden the party's reach. Hoff recently announced her personal support for civil unions. Hoff is a coalition-builder before she's an in-your-face activist.   Hoff's opponent, Audra Shay, is the young woman whose flippancy in the face of racism is the main current of the race. Shay, a hard-changing veteran and former police officer, calls her campaign "Team Renewal," and her platform consists of a 16 point pledge to increase accountability and transparency in the organization. Both candidates have endorsements from party conservatives and moderates. Shay is generally seen as the more personally conservative of the two, although the difference is really only visible on a couple of social issues. Age is also relevant, although obliquely; Shay is 38 -- about as old as a "young" Republican can get; Hoff is 10 years younger. Some younger Republicans want to take the YRNF back from the older young Republicans.

Shay has apologized for her comments. Hoff's team, which apparently played no role in discovering the comments or in spreading them, has kept silent.  But Shay's credibility as a messenger has been damaged, and it will be interesting to see whether Young Republicans penalize her this Saturday.

Jul 6 2009, 4:22PM

Metaphor Watch: The Finger

healthcare.JPG
I wonder whether this unsubtle allusion will enter the health reform lexicon this go-round. The finger is a little much, though, right? Iconography watchers: is NR trying to say something about masculinity here?  

Jul 6 2009, 3:24PM

Tech Changes Politics Watch: US Can Down Missiles Via Net (?)

From the annals of "I'm not sure he shoulda said that," the Defense and Acquisitions Journal's Colin Clark picks up the implication of a top Air Force general's hint that the United States possess the "nascent" capability to stop surface-to-air missiles via cyberwarfare. The how is easy to imagine: we break the encryption on the navigation systems of the foreign missile and steer it off course... or we break the encryption on the firing mechanism and send a false signal that turns the bomb into a dud. Our National Security Agency spends billions of dollars on codebreaking, and the Defense Intelligence Agency runs the Central MASINT Office to exploit information about Measurement and Signature intelligence, so it's not beyond the realm of possibility that those foreign entities who have the technology to target the U.S. would know that the U.S. would be doing everything to break the encryption on the missiles...which is why they're encrypted in the first place. The point is not to go all tech-geeky on everyone... but if the U.S. is developing this capacity, or if we have this capacity but aren't broadcasting it, then a lot of our political debates about cybersecurity and missile defense are outdated and unproductive.  Also, there's a government entity called the Missile and Space Intelligence Center, based in Alabama, that tracks information about -- and works with other agencies to exploit -- the technology behind any of the 500 or so different types of missiles that exist in the world today.


Jul 6 2009, 2:51PM

Obama, Executive Orders and Detention: What's Really Going On

A week ago on Friday, the national security world shook with news, reported by the Washington Post and ProPublica, that the Obama administration was drafting an executive order that would codify or restate the president's authority to indefinitely detain those captured in war. I was skeptical: though I think Obama believes that the executive has such authority, he has, publicly and privately, argued that a solution to the question of the Guantanamo detainees -- and to the larger, more important question of the president's authority to pre-emptively detain ostensible terrorists -- must be deliberative in process and must involve a "buy in" from all three branches of government. White House officials denied that such an order was to be imminently issued, although they did not deny the gist of the first report, which was that the idea was (at the very least) being floated. A few days ago, Obama closed off that particular avenue, telling the AP that "the American people and Congress, in conjunction with my administration...[must]...come up with a structure that is not only legitimate in the eyes of our constitutional traditions, but also in the eyes of the international community."

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Jul 6 2009, 2:28PM

Healthier Rx For Health Care Reform

Just weeks after the Establishment put health care reform legislation on life support, it's out of bed and as healthy as ever -- a classic case of Daily Divination bias, where long-term trends are foretold on the basis of a few day's worth of media churn.  The full score of the Senate HELP committee bill was released by the Gods at CBO, and lo' and behold -- the bill would increase coverage significantly and would be much less expensive than previously thought. 

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Jul 6 2009, 2:27PM

How To Think About McNamara

My colleauge, Marc Ambinder, has a smart take on Robert McNamara here. It's a safe bet that Robert McNamara's death won't get the coverage afforded Farrah Fawcett or even Ed McMahon. The former Defense Secretary and Vietnam War architect led a life as big as the 20th century, from whiz kid at the Ford Motor Company through Vietnam and then on to the World Bank. His regrets and agony over Vietnam became legend in his later years and his work for liberal causes like the nuclear freeze movement of the 1980s made him an ally of those who used to protest outside his office at the Pentagon. Mickey Kaus asked in the New Republic more than 20 years ago whether any single American had done more damage than McNamara. 

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Jul 6 2009, 12:19PM

The Lasting Political Legacies Of Robert McNamara

A correspondent e-mails to point out several lasting political legacies of Robert McNamara: one was the 1986 Goldwater-Nichols Act (GNA), which codified a major change in the command structure of the military, taking away power from the service chiefs and giving it to the civilians -- the President, the Secretary of Defense (who were given direct line authority over theater commanders) and away from the military bureaucracy, which had grown either too powerful or too parochial.  Concepts like "jointness" predominated. But so did the give and take that might have led -- or might lead to -- better decisions. If the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff doesn't have to listen to the generals and is politically responsive to the president, then dissenting views -- think Eric Shinseki's at the outset of the Iraq war -- are formally given no chance to be heard. The McNamara model implies a strong secretary of defense whose principal political task is to watchdog the service chiefs and correct for their parochialism. Political appointees gained enormous informal power under McNamara and then formally under the GNA. (One underlying assumption of GNA is that previous defense secretaries were too weak to resist the demands of the service chiefs; McNamara couldn't significantly reduce manpower requests of the Army and Air Force in his later Vietnam years even though he grew increasingly convinced that the approach was wrong.) 

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Jul 6 2009, 11:40AM

Palin: Could She Take it Back?

Could Sarah Palin rescind her intent to resign? My friend and colleague, Josh Marshall, raises that intriguing possibility here. He notes that Larry Craig indicated that he intended to resign his office and then never did. (The arrested Idaho Republican did decline to run for reelection in 2008.) Could Palin, facing a bewildering array of criticism, decide at the last minute that she wants to stick around? It's unlikely, as Josh acknowledges, but it's no more erratic than Ross Perot who dropped out of the 1992 presidential race only to reenter it later. And it's no odder than the behavior of Marc Sanford in South Carolina.

It's hard to see how it would behoove Palin to suddenly take back her offer of resignation. She'd have to explain why she was so adamant about it. And Alaska Republicans would be even more sick of her. But it does have the advantage of letting her serve out her term. And she could claim, as Perot did, that she was responding to popular demand. Perot cited the public for his getting in the race the first time in 1992 and then again when he returned to the race that fall. The odd billionaire wound up with 19 percent of the popular vote, the highest garnered for a third party since 1912 and Teddy Roosevelt's Bull Mosse run for the presidency. So if the public was willing to forgive such lunacy then who's to say they wouldn't do it this time? Can I take a crack at her opening remarks?

"Gosh, the elites of this country say that you can't change your mind and rethink a major decision that has consequences for Alaska and all Americans. But they don't seem to understand what average people here in Wasilla and across the country know and that is that the freedom--yes, the freedom--to change your mind is the opposite of the so-called, quote Big Brother mentality. And what about our troops fighting for that freedom? Aren't they doing a great job? So as I made plans with Todd and everyone to start this next chapter in our lives we heard from lots of ordinary citizens who said it would be great if you helped promote freedom from outside government but why not stay in because we need more people like you? And ya know what? I listened to those people through their email and their Twitter Tweets and their Facebook and ya know what? I understood what they said. And so I've decided to make a personal sacrifice and stay on as governor where I can serve the peoples of this great state."

Video

Jul 6 2009, 10:35AM

Rush On Palin

El Rushbo concedes he doesn't why Sarah Palin resigned, but he knows that she has a brighter future than her critics anticipate.  "If Sarah Palin has any desire to do speeches, to raise money, to earn money... if she has any desire for a future in politics.... she has to do it in the lower 48."

Jul 6 2009, 9:47AM

Robert McNamara, Voltaire's Bastards And Barack Obama

Former Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara will be best known by those whose who participated in the Vietnam War as the intellectual architect of a conflict whose beginnings are still murky and whose endings provides us with endless metaphors, and lessons, for today.  What did McNamara fundamentally believe he got wrong? Nothing more, he wrote in 1995, than a misunderstanding about what America's history and traditions implied for the course of Vietnam. He had plenty of time to think about this concept, and yet he still didn't get it right. For people in Washington, McNamara's folly was an institutional folly: the belief that one smart person with a vision can see what thousands of others with experience cannot.  The fog of war, the irrationality of human nature, the limits of formal chains of command, the limits of reason itself, and a fundamental conflation of decision-making and administration. John Ralston Saul, in Volatire's Bastards, makes McNamara a central character in his tale of Western governments came to rely on a cult of credentialed, jargon-y experts to make decisions that were better left to politicians. This is not a conservative critique of the elite, per se: it's merely a meditation on the limits of what humans can do, and know, and why it is dangerous to leave major decisions in the hands of people who think they can know.  We've see a version of this fallacy play out among the central actors in our economic crisis: CEOs and experts, quants and traders, who created an orderly world from something fundamentally, almost irreducibly complex. 

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Jul 6 2009, 9:33AM

The Politics of a Second Stimulus

Three things are clear: 1) Job losses in this recession are already much worse than the Obama administration anticipated; 2) The stimulus designed to slow the pace of job losses has either proven too weak or too slow in its effectiveness; 3) The idea of passing a second stimulus, once a baby of the liberal blogosphere, has grown up to occupy the attention of major figures like George Stephanopoulos on ABC. Still, I would put my money on a second stimulus not happening, for the following three reasons:

First, the Obama administration would be going back to the Congress with some humbling data. The White House predicted that the stimulus spending would dampen unemployment, and they provided a clear graph to show just how crucial stimulus spending would be to save jobs. But the last few months have seen unemployment sky-rocket almost a full percentage point higher than the administration envisioned without a stimulus at all. This graph below could act as a kind of negative political capital, discouraging conservative Democrats from throwing more money at the recession.
actualunemployment.png Second, it's not a given that the money from a second stimulus would be spent any quicker than the first. Take a look at this graph of stimulus spending, which is provided by the Obama administration at their site recovery.gov. It seems that every week, the administration makes "available" about $6 billion and spends about $3 billion.
paidoutrecovery.png As of late June, we had only paid out about one-third of the available funds, and about 15 percent of all spending allocated in the recovery bill. To be sure, Obama has promised that the pace of spending would increase this summer. But if we can't spend all of the stimulus even by November 2010, as the administration admits, how much faster would another couple hundred billion be spent? That's a question I expect the Obama administration will have to answer if they get their second stimulus.

Third, I expect that the politics of shifting attention away from one of the three big issues of the docket -- health care, climate change and bank regulation -- are dangerous. Conservative Democrats -- and a solid majority of Americans -- are getting nervous about deficits at a time when the Obama administration is pressing them to help pass a trillion-dollar health care reform bill and a potentially even more costly climate change bill to cap carbon emmissions. Say what you want about the long-term impact of climate change and health care reform, but they're going to cost an intimidating sum over the next few years. If Obama presses for a second stimulus, I expect he'll meet plenty of resistance from his own party. Politicians should be nervous about these job losses, but come 2010, they'll be most worried about losing their own.