The Washington elites are abuzz over Obama's poll decline. Of course, polls are mercurial, everchanging and go up and down. Nevertheless they do reflect a reality of public perception at a particular moment and they create their own dynamic. New research from the folks at Pew suggests that the economy, health care and Obama's comments on the Henry Louis Gates arrest have helped push his numbers down. All those things certainly make sense. While everybody wants health care reform in the abstract, people are bound to be disappointed when it comes to specifics. And the economy continues to suffer despite an uptick in the financial markets. The Gates episode seems to have hurt Obama most with non-Hispanic whites who may more naturally side with the police that Obama claims acted "stupidly" before walking his comments back.
I suspect some other dynamics are at work, too. Among them:
Washington's stuck. Whenever Washington seems to be fighting and legislation is stalled from partisan gridlock you're going to see numbers go down. Right now the health care process is actually moving along pretty briskly, but if you were just watching it casually you would think that the Beltway had descended into the same old stalemate.
It's not that he sided with Gates, it's that he got involved at all. Obama's comments on the Gates episode seem to have hurt him but I think it's less because he sided with Gates and more because he got involved at all, seeming to focus less on the economy and more on a local story, albeit one that's caught national interest. Obama wouldn't be better off if he'd sided with the cops. But if he'd said that he was going to let the parties work out the matter while he focused on the economy, that would have been the best answer at all.
Foreign travel. Obama's recent spate of foreign travel has probably hurt him. It's not that Americans don't want their president to travel abroad and Obama's performances overseas, especially his tough-love talk in Ghana, won priase from the likes of Newt Gingrich. But when a president is overseas during a time of domestic crisis, he doesn't convey the same sense of urgency.
Too Much J. Crew, Not Enough Eleanor. The Obamas have had plenty of meetings with those who are down on their luck. But the overall impression that Americans may be getting of the Obamas is of people out of touch with the plight of Americans. This is probably owing more to the celebrity media culture than anything the Obamas have done. But in a neo Depression, is all the coverage of Michelle's hair, the kids at Sidwell, the upcoming Martha's Vineyard vacation really helping the president.
There's no easy way to parse out what causes polls to rise and fall and it's not clear that it matters that much either. But it's worth thinking about some of these ancillary factors, too.
With the country mired in a war on two fronts and the economy in the worst depression in nearly a century, the US president had net approval ratings of -30 just seven months back. With the country still mired in the war and the economy still being the recession, the US president now has a net approval rating of +15 and political commentators are busy forecasting his political death.
It would do you good to dig a little deeper and look at Obama's poll numbers by region, and not simply the average. At least according to the Research 2000 poll commissioned by DKos, Obama's still doing very well in most of the country. It's simply his dismal numbers in the South that are pulling down his average.
I'd go and see if this true across other polls, but I have a job to do. I wish journalists would do theirs as well.
Amen! It's like the so-called journalists just ask each other what the poll numbers mean. It drives me crazy to see them interview one another and pass that off as news. Why not research? Interview people outside the profession and politics? Drill deeper rather than just use lazy thinking or hypotheses!
Because that would involve actual journalism aka doing real work. And who's got time for that when you're busy "tweeting" or pontificating on TV. Apparently, that is "journalism" today.
When you say, "While everybody wants health care reform in the abstract, people are bound to be disappointed when it comes to specifics," you let the public off the hook too easily. Americans have a fundamental problem that impedes progress on anything: They want it all, they want it now, and they don't want to pay for it. Add to that the fact that they are easily frightened, and you have a recipe for gridlock.
Theories on Obama's Poll Decline?
How about billionaire Rupert Murdock using his considerable media empire like Fox New, The Wall Street Journal and his numerous right-wing sockpuppets like Hannity, Beck, O'Reilly all used to attack this President 24/7.
Fox News likes to brag about it's high rating... and aside from Shepard Smith's show all of it is about attacking this President.
No question Mr. Murdock is being successful in bring down this President with his right-wing GOP propaganda tricks... the grainy video, the ominous music and the non-stop bashing.
I don't see how anyone can ignore Rupert Murdock's influence unless they are being willfully ignorant.
It seems, Fox News being an official propaganda tool of the Republicans is now just considered a part of political reality, something to be admired supposedly rather than asking why a "News Network" never holds the Republicans' feet to the fire given their remarkable access. Ofcourse it's a mutual symbiosis, where Fox News simply hires Republican hacks like Karl Rove.
"Of course it's a mutual symbiosis..."
Sarah Palin, a Fox News favorite is getting a multi-million dollar book deal with HarperCollins Publishers.
Who owns HarperCollins Publishers?
Rupert Murdock.
And Obama signed a multi-million dollar deal to produce a dumbed-down verson of "Dreams Of My Father" for schools on January 15, 2099, and a month later an extra $4 billion was included in the stimulus program to be used solely at the discretion of one of his cabinet members. Coincidence? I think not.
But you on whining about how a private citizen getting a book deal is somehow illustrative of a larger social program while Obama conducts plainly corrupt business deals with our tax money for his personal enrichment.
No sycophantic hero worship for you, huh davemartin?
You're making me laugh.
Yes, as opposed to merely the New York Times, AP, Reuters, Washington Post, LA Times, NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN, MSNBC, PBS, NPR, nearly every other newspaper, magazine, of course our deep societal philosophers, the comedians, and nearly every other culturally influential organ in the nation in a state of absolute idolatry of the guy. Yes, I'm sure Sean Hannity is responsible for moving the polls.
It can't be that he ran as a moderate and is governing like a radical Marxist, seizing companies, running up trillions in debt, destroying the health care system most Americans are happy with, pushing a mammoth "cap and trade" scam to benefit moneyed Democrat allies while further crippling the economy and being a knee-jerk racialist.
No, I'm sure the independents, moderates and moderate Democrats who constitute the majority of those now voting negatively in the polls, who previously voted positively, are all persuaded by Sean Hannity and Sarah Palin. It's all so unfair.
so lets see...we have one newspaper and one cable network that dare to crticize the messiah once in awhile and every other newspaper and every other network saying only positive things and thats the reason for his plummet in the polls? i understand that lots of people watch fox and read the WSJ, but have you ever asked yourself why people might be doing that? The truth is the President has fallen back to Earth because he's espousing a horrible health care plan...although I should be fairer, what he says sounds so nice, but the bills in Congress that he is trying to ram through dont match up with his smooth rhetoric. The American people are seeing him as a fraud because he's basically lying to them...the people aren't dumb, regardless of what bill maher says. I also think the Gates incident has a lot to do with it. "I don't know the details but I think the cops acted stupidly" Ummm, did you just say that? I thought he was a thoughtful, post-racial guy...at least that was the theme the press pushed during his annointment, i mean, campaign.
mattg, as fine example of the type of people that Murdock is preaching to... the unhinged, under educated and racist.
"The messiah", his "annointment" (by the way mattg it's spelled "anointment") ... these people are burning with rage about having a black President.
The scary thing is that Murdock is getting these people more and more worked up.
Rupert's sockpuppet, Glen Beck just said on national TV (Fox and Friends) that he thinks President Obama is a racist and he thinks that President Obama hates white people and white culture (whatever that is).
How EGREGIOUS is that???
Hardly a word of this is being published and Glen Beck is probably getting a raise.
Kanye West was racked over the coals for days when he called President Bush a racist.
I'm thinking that many, many people in the media business are absolutely terrified by what Rupert Murdock can do to them in retaliation maybe even those on the Atlantic.
Oh, my apologies to davemartin7777.... seems I spelled "president" incorrectly. I suppose that means I am human, because we ALL make mistakes. Doesn't mean we're uneducated.
"Kanye West was racked over the coals"
HAHAHAHA Seems the highly educated intellectual elitist can not use the English language correctly or he misspelled a word.
I believe you meant "RAKED" not "RACKED".
So by Davemartin777 standards, he is a perfect example of the "under educated". Typical Liberal.
He also doesn't know how to spell Rupert Murdoch's last name.
davemartin777, please tell me why you make the assumption that anyone who expresses the least bit of opposition to "the Messiah" is immediately labeled as "unhinged, under educated and racist?" Isn't that in fact what we're trying to get away from in this nation? It sounds like you aren't trying to be a part of the solution.
I have absolutely nothing against a black president. I have everything against a presidet of ANY color who wants to lead this country down the path of socialism, and nationalizing health care is a HUGE step to that end.
It isn't about race. It isn't about that at all. Obama himself has made it about race. Too many people in this country see that now. Too many EDUCATED people see that.
BTW, I hold a master's degree in counseling psychology, and have a managerial position in business, graduated magna cum laude from graduate school. Do you consider me to be uneducated, because I oppose this president's agenda? Seems pretty presumptuous of you.
The first words out a racist's mouth is usually "I am not a racist."
Pollygirl, I'm sorry you can't or are unwilling to answer any of my salient points.
How about addressing the point that Rupert Murdock uses the considerable resources of his media empire to destroy this President with GOP lies and talking points 24/7.
Any thoughts on Beck calling this President a racist?
Does that sit well with you with your psychology training?
I invite you as a manager to suggest this President is a racist at work and see what happens to your continued employment outlook.
And please let me pop the myth that the government can't manage heath care.
I'm a Vietnam era vet and get great socialized and nationalized health care for life.
I pay nothing, not one dime and the government is doing a great managing my socialized and nationalized health care.
"are" usually.
I'm sorry I took my GED while serving... I don't have a big education.
"It isn't about race. It isn't about that at all. Obama himself has made it about race."
Sure he has...
Crowley (the cop) "Violated The Constitution"
Fox News legal analyst Andrew Napolitano defends Gates and American civil liberties. Napolitano is one of the few conservatives allowed on Fox who actually believes that individuals should be protected from the power of the police state. The whole thing is worth watching:
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/07/crowley-violated-the-constitution.html
Tell you what.
Try a little experiment.
1) Go out on your front porch and start screaming at the top of your lungs (as everyone, including the neighbors, say that Gates was).
2) Keep screaming until the neighbors call the cops on you.
3) When the cops get there, refuse to stop. Keep right on yelling. You're on your own property after all.
4) Find out how long it takes for you to get arrested for disturbing the peace and/or disorderly conduct.
5) Go ahead and try to sue for wrongful arrest.
If you're right, then you'll be a rich man. If I'm right, you'll have just embarrassed yourself in front of your whole neighborhood and gotten yourself an arrest record.
You want to take bets on which one of us is more right?
davemartin -
That has to be the most ridiculous personal attack I've seen. And I've seen a lot of them.
You call someone a racist, and they say they're not. So your response is that racists always say that.
By your definition, the simple fact that you called someone a racist makes them guilty simply because you accused them of being one.
That's ludicrous, and you should be embarrassed.
As far as Beck calling the President a racist: the President opened himself up to that charge by sitting for 20 years in the church listening to racist and anti-Semitic sermons. You routinely condemn Republicans for doing far less, and yet you refuse to see it when it comes to your personal heroes. Sorry, that's not going to wash. Either it's racist when anybody does it, or it's not racist when anybody does it. Get your story straight before you go accusing other people of doing something wrong.
As far as the current instance is concerned, yes Obama sided with a racist professor who automatically assumed that an officer was doing something wrong simply because that officer happened to be white. If Crowley had been black, you'd have never heard a word because Gates would have simply handed over his ID, thanked the officer for responding to the 911 call and nothing more would have been said or done. It was Gates' own racism that instigated everything that followed, and Obama jumped in to defend it. That sounds pretty racist on its face. So you need to provide proof that Obama wasn't acting from racial motivations when every bit of evidence shows that he likely was.
There I accused Obama and Gates of racism. By your definition, if you deny that they are, it's absolute proof that they are. So thanks for bringing up just how racist both Obama and Gates are. You've done your country a great service.
As far as Murdoch is concerned, how about GE using NBC and MSNBC to push its corporate agenda from mandating the CFL bulbs they produce to their healthyimagination digital records processing software. There's a glaring conflict of interest, but I'm going to guess that you're going to try to find some excuse that makes it OK while you demonize Murdoch for doing far less than using two different TV networks for corrupt purposes. There I accused you of something, and if you deny it then you're automatically guilty of it. How's that working out for you?
As far as government-run healthcare, why don't you ask Native Americans how their national health care system is working out? You know the one that regularly denies treatment to people. And why don't you ask everyone on private insurance how it feels to cross-subsidize the below-market rates that Medicare and Medicaid pay by paying higher rates for their own medical treatment? No possible relationship to rising healthcare costs to the growing subsidy costs for Medicare and Medicaid, right?
You hate people on private insurance. Don't try to deny it. You'll just prove that you are denying it. Save your breath.
As far as veteran's care, don't even get me started on the substandard care and rife abuses of the system. Too bad you don't care even a whit for the other veterans elsewhere in the system who aren't receiving the level of care you are.
You're a self-loathing veteran for not fighting for better healthcare for your fellow veterans. Every time you try to deny that you are is just further proof of what a self-loathing veteran you are.
So by your own definition you're a self-loathing racist defender of corporate corruption who hates people on private insurance. That you even show your face in public is evidence of just how little empathy you have for your fellow man.
Shame on you.
(How's that little temper tantrum you had looking to you now?)
Dave, I am grateful that you served your country, whether voluntarily or not (as most Vietnam era vets were drafted against their will).
And it's great that you are getting such wonderful medical care, especially since, as you say, you are paying "nothing, not one dime."
Fabulous for you, not so fabulous for me, and people like me. You know, the ones that not only pay the federal income taxes that pay for your care, but pay a lot of them. People like me, a self-empolyed small business owner, that provides excellent heath and dental insurance to my employees, at no cost to them.
I, and others in my situation, are wondering how we will be able to continue to pay for health insurance for our employees at the same time we are paying much higher taxes to pay for Obamacare. My guess is that we won't be able to, and our employees will be joining you in having the government manage their "socialized and nationalized health care."
Something tells me that they won't be happy.
Officer who sent 'jungle-monkey' e-mail: 'I am not a racist'
BOSTON, Massachusetts (CNN) -- The Boston police officer who sent a mass e-mail in which he compared Harvard professor Henry Louis Gates Jr. to a "banana-eating jungle monkey" has apologized, saying he's not a racist.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/07/30/gates.police.apology/
It's always amusing how the racists are always the least racist among us.
Which only proves how racist you are.
Racist.
On the Gates episode and the recent 'beer buds photo-op'. An obvious dog and pony show, and an insult to our intelligence. I'm not quite sure what Obama's objective is with all this nonsense. I think this.. situation.. is a bit beneath the Office of the President of the United States. The Commander-in-Chief of the remaining superpower in the world ought to concern himself with more important issues on the table. Issues like the economy, unemployment, the environment, healthcare, terrorism, foreign relations, North Korea, and about ten dozen other things that impact 300 million U.S. citizens, or the six billion people of planet Earth. Worrying about the arrest of some guy on a Saturday afternoon, then going so far as to have afternoon tea with him, does not give me a lot of confidence that Obama has his head screwed on straight when it comes to national priorities.
The why in the decline of the O polls is the fact that this man is dishonest. The MSM of course will always protect him. It even took awhile for FOX to see him for what he is. Just follow the facts. The Scandle over the firing of Gerald Walpin for one. The WH just refuses to comply with any inquiry as to the facts. His Justice Dept. and the Black Panther story in Philadelphia, His involvement with ACORN, The list just goes on and on. The People are begining to see thru him and they are getting Mad a hell. Just look at the protests at the town hall meetings the dems are holding. You are going to see lots of angry people and the mors the white house white washes the facts the more the people will protest. Just wait until the protests turn ugly and they will. Will this president hide. We will see.
I have one more theory I am tired of his lectures and telling me what is right and wrong like some bad parent. Every night this warped professor gets on the news in some way and dictates how it is and how it should be. Personally I have more formal eduction then him and significant life experience. His act is getting old! Many say and They and we need and it shoudl be and every one agreees. it is all crap! one great thing about this country is very few agree! it makes us strongIt make it fun to live here! This guy is an egg head idot! he is the most idealistic self rightous bore! He will not get my vote agian.
Here's a theory. His poll numbers are down because his incompetence is showing and that matters to enough people.
Oh no, I diapprove of Obama so I must be a racist. That dog hunts less and less.
The "clunkers for cash" fiasco is the latest example of incompetence. The admin can't calculate they'd run out of money that quickly on a simple $1B expenditure but they are trying to convince people they know how much their health care scheme is going to cost.
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
First of all davemartin7777, i happened to go to an Ivy League college, so you can stop your ad hominem attacks. I didn't take typing in college like you may have. And I grew up in a town of 3,000 in central Maine, so you can't really call me a an elitist either. What you can't answer, and refuse to amidst all your rage at Rupert Murdoch, is how can one guy be swaying so much opinion? Between the major networks, the Obama cable networks and all major newspapers besides the WSJ and the interent, he is a very small piece of the media pie. Get with it: he's going down because the people are starting to see him as he really is: a politician. He had a nice narrative during the campaign of being a post-partisan, post-racial consensus builder and people gave him a benefit of the doubt because McCain/Palin just didnt do it for them. And so far he's been anything but a post-partisan, post-racial president and America has a case of buyer's remorse.
Well I would expect the 1st half black president to be a lot less of a pompus ass than he has been. If I
I dont want a smug obnoxious asshole protecting the bankers as president. BHO, grow a pair and get humble.
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