Politics with Marc Ambinder

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Jul 10 2009, 11:17 am

Interpreting The Beltway: What It Means To Say Health Care Is "Stalled"

It's worth clarifying the language I'm using to describe the status of major health care reform legislation. What provokes my repetitive posts on why health care isn't dead are journalists and commentators who conflate the sludge of negotiations and Congressional lawmaking with their being a "lack of progress" or who interpret public disagreements -- such as the Blue Dog Democrat demands on taxes -- as evidence that legislation has "stalled." or "set back."  This metaphor envisions a road. At the start is nothing; at the end is a perfect (from the standpoint of some unknown entity) bill.  You can never go sideways, or diagonally, or underground, only forward or backward. The end of health care is zero-sum, of course; either there's a bill or there's not So, in a technical sense, legislation that is delayed on a calendar is "stalled." 

But getting to the end -- getting a bill to the floor -- can't be explained with reference to the same metaphor. It's way more complex. Functionally, when a particular debate becomes public, the goal of getting legislation to the floor usually advances. These issues don't arise out of nowhere. They've been there, and issue entrepreneurship in Congress wait for the right moment to spring them.  The Blue Dog objections and "demands" are intermediary steps toward the end of getting a bill to the floor; they're proffers in negotiations. When House leaders do "x" and Senate leaders do "y," and it seems to shift the debate or change the legislative calendar, one should assume that these actions are taking place because they will speed passage given the current, always-changing realities of 535 members of Congress, dozens of powerful interest groups, millions of patients and doctors, and the White House.  The full political consequences of supporting or opposing legislation will only be intelligible when a single bill hits the floor for final passage.  

The timetables set by Congressional leaders were ambitious, and designed to kindle the sort of intense heat that has been generated. The  fact is that health care lawmaking is proceeding rapidly, maybe a bit too rapidly.  I don't know what the final bill will look like, or whether it will be "ideal" from the perspective of the majority. But nothing seems to indicate that the President won't get a bill that accomplishes many (though maybe not all) of his primary goals. 

Comments (3)

Marc, I have a question-

What are the odds that there will be a real public option in the final version of the bill?

Dude its dead just wait and see. No way to pay for it. thank God for Blue Dog Dems. they are starting to wake up, they are smelling the coffee. The people too, they see just how radical Obama has turned out. Mr. "I’m Sorry" Obama should head back to ChiTown now before he goes down as the worst elected president since Jimmy "'Aint Gotta Pair" Carter.

Marc: a perfect summary of the rather inchoate sausage making process. The problem is that this analysis is way above the heads of most of the public, only a fraction of whom following it with close attention anyway. The media who are the storytellers want drama, headlines, conflict, the stuff that sells newspapers and convinces people like James Bond(admittedly he is rather an extreme example)that a measure is succeeding or failing. There isn't the slightest doubt in my mind that we're going to get a healthcare bill passed that essentially gives the president all he wants. When you have various groups in the healthcare industry "volunteering" contributions the writing must be on the wall for all other than the most purblind. The public wants reform; it's the Obama admin's hallmark piece of legislation; the democrats have ample majorities in house and senate to pass it through reconciliation if they have to; resistance in the healthcare industry has essentially collapsed. This is as inevitable as the confirmation of Sotomayor.