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Jul 7 2009, 2:37 pm by Marc Ambinder

An Ohio Outlier?

I asked a White House official to respond to a poll from Quinnipiac of adults in Ohio showing a fairly significant downturn in President Obama's job favorability ratings. More data is needed, the official said, before conclusions can be made.  That's true. But you can bet that it was included in their morning reading. For those who want to know, the pollsters asked about Obama before they asked about the voters' perceptions of the economy in the state...although after they asked 24 other questions about state political races.  Nationally, Obama's approval ratings among adults are averaging around 57%, with his unfavorables holding steady at about a third of the public. If anyone comes across other reliable state polling on Obama's job approval numbers, please send them along. 

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Comments (11)

OGLiberal

I don't have any other state polls but the drop between his early May numbers and now - both overall and on the economy - is huge. And it's only been 2 months. It's not like the economy has gotten significantly worse or better in that timeframe, although I don't know specifics about what's going on in Ohio. The current numbers actually sound like about what I would expect coming out of Ohio 5 and 1/2-months into a presidential term during a rough economy....maybe a little on the low side but probably pretty close to accurate. The May numbers - 62-31 overall and 57-36 on the economy - actually look like they may have been a bit high. Maybe that one was the outlier?

Kmber (Replying to: OGLiberal)

Ohio is an odd state.

TycheSD

I voted for Obama and I'm losing my enthusiasim for him. I am an independent who has voted for Republicans and Democrats.

The economy is not improving. The government has continued since Bush these massive bailouts to the banks and also to the auto companies. People see that the Obama administration is too closely allied with Wall Street and they are suspicious.

Not only that, any anti-war independent or Democrat would be disillusioned because Obama's tone on foreign policy is better than any president in my recent memory (I'm 56), but the policies don't seem much better - if at all. Things have escalated in Afghanistan, we're building a $1 billion embassy in Islamabad (how is that different than the Iraqi Green Zone???), and there is no retrenchment on defense spending.

Add the above to the massive stimulus bill and all of the talk about trillions of dollars needed for health care reform, and you have people who are totally spooked. I, for one, don't know what the exit strategy is for this terrible economy. People are also worried about additional hits to their pocketbooks from cap-and-trade. Even though the Obama administration is not talking about middle class tax increases, I think people are worried that they are inevitable. And, they resent it because of the bailouts.

That's my opinion. Ohio may not be the outlier, they may be the precursor.

Kmber

Well, President Obama campaigned on cap-and-trade and healthcare reform so I don't see how that surprises you.

The majority of the bailouts were doled (in panic) prior to President Obama being sworn in and most economists agreed that stimulus bill was needed (and many were arguing that the one passed was too small). People don't like money going to the auto companies, but if President Obama did nothing and let them go into liquidation they'd say he's Herbert Hoover.

Since the economic crisis took a decade or so in the making it's a bit ridiculous to think things would turn around so quickly.

But then again.....voters are fickle and people lose patience. It seems like we're in a place where people want something done but at the sametime they don't.

Kmber (Replying to: Kmber)

U.S. Considers Curbs on Speculative Trading of Oil

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/08/business/08cftc.html?_r=1&hp

TycheSD (Replying to: Kmber)

I voted for Obama because I wanted a less interventionist foreign policy and because I wanted someone who would take climate change seriously.

I don't support a government run health care program or even a government option. If Medicare is bankrupting the country, I don't see how adding another health care program is going to help. The federal government will end up like California!! Plus, I like my insurance and my doctors!

And, I supported Gore's idea of some sort of revenue neutral carbon tax where there were offsetting cuts in payroll or income taxes. The cap and trade system seems like just another bureaucracy and complicated to boot. See Matt Taibbi's article in Rolling Stone about Goldman Sachs and cap-and-trade.

Speaking of bureaucracy, I appreciate Obama getting the very best people into his administration to solve all of the problems we have. But everytime he appoints one of these specialists or "czars" to oversee a particular issue, they bring along a whole bureaucracy of government employees with them. Is the government the employer of last resort as well as the spender of last resort? The problem with government jobs though is that, once you hire them, you can't get rid of them! All of these government employees bring along their out of sight health care costs too.

As I said, I'm an independent, and not a loyal Democrat - many of whom are being two-faced right now, withholding their criticism of Obama for doing some of the same things Bush did.

janjanjan (Replying to: TycheSD)

I don't see Democrats being two-faced by withholding criticism of Obama. Quite the opposite. Reading liberal blogs, they're totally freaked out because Obama is just like Bush in key characteristics--GLBT issues, detainee issues, secrecy, etc. The only parts of the stimulus plan which have fully kicked in are the parts that Republicans believe in--the tax breaks. And, as usual, those just don't do the job in such bleak circumstances.

I do support health care reform. I like my insurance, but I can see a health care infrastructure around me which is badly affected by those who have none. They still get catastrophic care but no routine care and certainly no preventative care. Too many are chronically ill with no treatment until their illnesses disable them. Once poverty-stricken, they qualify for Medicaid. Costs me way too much money for way too little result.

TycheSD (Replying to: janjanjan)

I support health care reform too. I just don't want another government bureaucracy. I don't want my taxes to go up to pay for other people's insurance. And, I want to be able to choose my doctors. The coop idea seems interesting, but otherwise, I would want a more competitively-priced private sector insurance and health care market.

What happened to the old days when you went to the doctor and you paid the doctor out-of-pocket, and it didn't cost you an arm and a leg, and you just had insurance for major medical expenses and/or hospitalization? Third party payers (and third party providers like employers) taking over more of health care expenses has increased cost across the board.

Chuck

Come on, a poll less than 6-months into his term and people are trying to read something into it? It's useless and means nothing.

Chuck

San Diego Health Insurance

Kmber (Replying to: Chuck)

Good point Chuck.

As a former GOper who lived through the 80s. President Obama is likely to endure what Reagan went through during his first term when unemployment reached double digits (Reagan's approval plunged to about 35%).

2009 will no doubt be a rough year for President Obama (unemployment, deficits, healthcare, financial regulation fights, etc etc), but he's a sturdy steady guy.

He'll be alright.

TycheSD

And, we might soon be saying, "Look out, Ohio!" "Here comes Sarah Palin!" Obama had better watch his back. Democrats don't take Palin seriously, but she is effective as a critic (and a channeler of rage), and I see her having plenty of opportunity now to be one. She could become Obama's worst nightmare.