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I am not sure that I agree with your analysis of how Pawlenty played his hand on this one. First, he could have signed the election certificate after the recount and certainly after the initial trial concluded. The fact that he did not gave the appearance that he was doing what the national Republican Party wanted. This view was intensified by the fact that he clearly has national ambitions. Furthermore, he denied the people of Minnesota full representation in the senate while some pretty important matters were being discussed.

Second, he was saved from actually having to make any sort of tough decision between the people of Minnesota getting their represenation in a timely manner and preventing the Democrats from getting another vote in the senate by Coleman conceding. If Coleman had decided to take his case federal he would have been put in a tough position.He would have had two choices. He could go against the people of Minnesota by not signing the election certificate, endearing himself to the National Republican Party and helping his chances in the presidential primaries. This would have had to effect of annoying a great many Minnesota independent voters, which if you have ever talked to a Minnesota voter they are all independents (who he needs to put Minnesota in play in 2012, although it will not make or break the electoral math in 2012 but if I were a Republican going against Obama I would be looking for electoral votes everywhere). If he signed the election certificate he would have had the reverse effect. He only avoided this fate because Coleman conceded but it was huge gamble, against the odds, since Coleman had already dragged the election into court to begin with.
In my opinion it would have made more sense for him to temporarily name someone to the Senate. The smartest person to pick would have been Arne Carlson. He is a former Republican governor who is deeply respected by everyone in Minnesota. He is basically a RINO but that would have been perfect. Republicans get a vote in the senate (not that it would matter) and no one could complain that Minnesotans were left without representation because of Gov. Pawlenty's national ambitions.
All of this is fairly minor in the scheme of things and probably does not hurt him very much but it also does not help him.