The unemployment rate continued to rise today, from 9.4 percent in May to 9.5 percent in June, with 467,000 nonfarm payroll jobs being lost. (Click here to see the Bureau of Labor Statistics report, which includes breakdowns by sector.)
It was a smaller jump than we've seen in previous months. Last month, BLS announced a rise from 8.9 percent to 9.4 percent. From November to March, the average monthly job loss total was 670,000; from April to June, it's been 436,000. Still, this month's drop in payroll employment was more than expected.
The political calculus on unemployment hasn't changed much. President Obama, in an interview with Bloomberg in June, predicted unemployment would hit 10 percent by the end of the year, giving himself some room as observers wondered when the continued job losses would begin to hurt his high standing in the public's eye.
"I think that what you've seen is that the pace of job loss has
slowed," Obama said--and it has. He also pointed out that unemployment
is a lagging indicator--in other words, it's a problem that began in
the previous administration. Judging from Obama's approval ratings,
people seem to be on the same page there.
But that's not going to stop Republicans from hitting him every time
the rate goes up. A press release from the Republican National
Committee today charged that the "facts belie Obama's 'rose-colored
forecast,'" questioning his promises of stimulus job creation, while
House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) hit Obama for pursuing health
care and cap and trade in light of the unemployment situation:
"Inexplicably, instead of focusing on jobs and restoring the financial
security that has been lost by millions of struggling families, the
President continues to push an agenda that the majority of Americans
are uneasy with," he said in a statement released this morning.
Amusingly, the Repub demanded personal and small business tax cuts and credits. The stim had $288B worth and their idea does not seem to be working either. Yet, Cantor tells folks in VA he is trying to get highspeed rail funds from the stim for VA, which would create thousands and thousands of jobs. Just the truth would be nice for a change.
So basically, you're saying 'Hey, the numbers are increasing more slowly, and since Obama said he expected unemployment to hit 10%, he's laid the groundwork to protect himself politically.'
Sorry, but the 'green shoots, think happy thoughts' veneer of the past few months is wearing off.
Do the math, dude. The real unemployment rate, if you include the people who have dropped off the insurance rolls and given up looking for work, is more like 12 to 13%. BLS does not count these people. And if you include the underemployed, i.e., those who still have jobs but have had their hours cut back at work, the total number of under-and-unemployed is around 16%.
Since 70% of the economy is consumer spending, what will the effect of those unemployment numbers be on our GDP? Huge. And this will have an enormous impact on the already-on-life-support financial sector. All the bad debt from the real estate bubble meltdown is still out there, either on the banks' or the Fed's books. It hasn't been allowed to clear. And with all this unemployment, more bad debt is coming. How will these people pay their share of the $1 trillion in outstanding credit card debt? Then throw in the resets in Option ARM and Alt-A mortgages that are coming later this year and next year, and you have even more to throw onto the pile.
Basically, the TARP, Fannie and Freddie takeover, Fed debt purchases and money printing, and mortgage modification programs were an attempt to prevent a total system collapse, while the government tried desperately to grow the economy through stimulus spending. The flaw in the plan was that in order to prevent collapse, the government aided and abetted the crooks on Wall Street by allowing them to not only delay the clearing of their bad debt decisions, but to do so at massive taxpayer expense. So the debt still sits there, and grows, and the economy cannot and will not turn around until that debt clears. No amount of stimulus spending is going to change that hard fact.
Washington thought it could prevent disaster by making Wall Street whole. It bet wrong. All that the $2 trillion+ in federal intervention has bought is a reprieve. How long will that reprieve last? Unknown, but it will end when the public realizes that Washington's bet hasn't paid off. After that, le deluge.
Dude, what are you talking about?
Haven't you seen how thin and handsome our president is? And haven't you heard how well-spoken he is, when the teleprompters are on?
You don't want to receive one of his evil-eye looks, do you? DO YOU?
President Chauncey is concerned about unemployment. He said so today, so I'm sure it's true. And of course he will fix it... he's tall and handsome!
BTW, he thinks Michael Jordan is the greatest basketball player of all time. And he has Michael Jackson on his iPod. See - he's got it all under control.
Did you know that the White House chefs can make ANY pie? Chauncey mentioned this in the same interview that he talked about fixing unemploy-whateveryoucallit, and Michael Jackson. It's true: Just name a pie, and they can make it! Who knew that a chef could do that? What is that, magic or something?
I'm sorry, what was the subject again? Oh, right, President Chauncey.
Fear not. He's tall, he's thin, and he's handsome. Vice President Bullwinkle says he's "neat," too, which is also good...
"I'm sorry, what was the subject again?"
At least you admit that you don't know what you're talking about.
Everyone underestimates, or willfully ignores, the ripple effects of recession, and no one, not even Obama, can think enough happy thoughts to make the recession go away. As the World Bank report issued last week explains, rising unemployment is just now starting to hit emerging markets, and it will only continue to get worse as the year goes on. Likely, the future pains of Asia, Latin America will echo back, causing further difficulty in the United States in one way or another. Beyond economics, there is great social and political unrest to be seen.
http://www.enewse.com/
I own a condo and have an outstanding balance of $140k, consisting of $104k primary and $36k secondary. I took the home equity to consolidate debts. At the time the property was valued at $163k but now it is valued at $134k. I'm looking to sell because i am engaged and will be moving into my fiancee's home. Check http://obamamortgage2009.blogspot.com/2009/03/obamas-mortgage-modification-do-you.html If I have a buyer who offers me within say $5-7k of the outstanding, can i agree to assume a loan on the residual and pay the bank the difference over time with interest? The same bank holds both mortgages.
I work for a collections law firm in Elkhart, Indiana and I have never seen it so bad. When are we going to start seeing the recovering signs that Obama keeps talking about? All I see recovering is the gas prices! First it was the subprime mortgages and next loop we are going to have to jump through is all the outstanding credit card debt. When all is said and down we are all going to have bad credit.