Politics with Marc Ambinder

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Jul 22 2009, 1:15 pm

Waterloo Or Verdun?

The Republican Party has found a model to base its restoration upon: the British Army.

Last week Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) said defeating the Democratic health care agenda would be President Obama's "Waterloo," the epic battle that between the British and Germans against the French that ended Napoleon's reign.

But Obama is committed to making this battle his Verdun - a miraculous victory from what looks like certain defeat.

Enacting sweeping health care reform that primarily provides universal coverage and lowers costs has been part of the Democratic and liberal agenda since at least the Truman administration. DeMint apparently thinks Obama cannot suffer this defeat lightly, considering the issues' proximity to Democratic hearts and its presence as a core campaign item for Obama. 

Extending DeMint's analogy, it seems Republicans think if health care can be defeated then Obama's presidency will limp along into the 2012 elections before the GOP delivers the coup de grace of a White House win.

Obama seems determined to impersonate not Napoleon but Philipe Petain.

Petain commanded French forces during the Battle of Verdun in World War I. A massive German offensive meant to break the stalemate on Western Front was focused on Verdun and planned to draw the French into this part of the battlefield and bleed them white. (Think of the Republicans as Germans, Democrats as the French, health care as Verdun, and high poll numbers as blood.)

The French indeed threw everything into the breach at Verdun and promised the Germans that "They shall not pass!" The demand for French soldiers and supplies was so intense that men were brought in from Paris via taxis. (Organizing for America?) The supply road was exalted as the Voie Sacree, or the "Sacred Way."

The Germans were turned back at great costs to both sides and Petain became a national hero.

However, both of these analogies don't take into account Obama's real problem: desertion. Neither Napoleon nor Petain faced dissention in the ranks that threatened to undermine their (military) agendas at either battle. In war, deserters can be shot; in politics, you're stuck with intransigent party members until either of you leave office.

Obama is trying to rally his troops to win the health care fight and then on to more battles. Clearly both sides see this slugging match at as a turning point in America's never-ending political war.

Comments (6)

I'm not sure Obama wants to imitate the head of state in Vichy France.

Although Demint might.

marksalot21

to joel

haha, nice. its always amusing to see a post made silly with one sentence.

Joel is right. In any case, I'm not sure the analogy is correct. It seems to me that Obama, if anyone, should represent the Germans, not the French. He and the Dems are the ones on offense here, with the GOP on defense, hoping that their opponents pour more and more resources into a losing battle.

"What looks like near certain defeat"?

Er, the bill has passed 3/5 relevant committees, the AMA is on board, the Republican rhetoric has been garbled by flawed messengers who can't answer basic questions, the major provisions are politically popular, and a media savvy President is leading the PR blitz. Passing this is by no means a "gimme", but defeat doesn't look AT ALL certain, much less "nearly" so.

BTW, do you have any actual sourcing that Obama is looking at this as his "Verdun", or are you just making it up whole cloth- while ADMITTING a major weakness of the analogy?

UselessAnecdote (Replying to: colby)

Following up on colby and paying due deference to Sen. DeMint's fondness for Napoleonic analogies, wouldn't it be more likely Obama is studying Austerlitz?

Just for the record you've mixed up the battle of Verdun with the first battle of the Marne. The first battle of the Marne (aka the Miracle of the Marne) was the improbable victory involving the taxi-cabs. The battle of Verdun was a costly meat-grinder. Although the quotes are accurate for Verdun, the battle of the Marne better suits your point, hence the Miracle appellation.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Battle_of_the_Marne
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Verdun