Assuming there is no scandal shoe about to drop, to understand what Gov. Sarah Palin is doing, we ought to begin by taking her at her word. I readily admit that her statement today wasn't terribly clear, which is quite telling itself: she doesn't quite know why she is doing what she's doing, ALL CAPS notwithstanding. She can't explain it to herself, and so she certainly can't explain it to others. But it's not that complicated to get the gist: she's "not retreating," she's advancing. Palin, in Alaska, is a sitting duck for the people and forces she believes are ruining the country. She can't fight back -- she can't protect her family, her values, her worldview -- while she's governor. At the same time, her desire, perhaps conscious, perhaps not, to get into the mix -- to be invited to the fancy Washington dinners, to be courted by these very forces -- is irresistably pulling her towards the very fight she seeks.
Don't make the mistake of assuming that Palin has a grand strategy that relies on subterfuge, prestidigitation or rhetorical concealment. She has few close advisers, and she is prone to ignore their advice. She keeps her own counsel. She believes what she says (and implies): that she is a national political figure, that her destiny (and I think she capitalizes the D) is in the continental 48, that her personal characteristics are mocked by the elite because the elite cannot understand them, that her family and children are subject to relentless, negative and highly damaging personal attacks, and that there is no longer a place for her in the Alaska government.
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The Vanity Fair profile and the Politico e-mails had nothing to do with her decision today. A simple Google News search will provide a better explanation. All those interviews: Palin, Levi, the baby; all the legislative blowback when she returned to Alaska after the campaign; all the adulation (and attention) she received when she took time away from her day job and stepped into her celebu-Sarah persona. Whether you believe that Palin is complicit in the exploitation of her family or not, you cannot help but believe that she means what she says she feels.
As a governor, she is ineffective; the moment she decides not to run for re-election, she had two choices: either untether herself from political customs and be the governor who spoke truth to power, or surrender to the whims of a legislature and governing apparatus that really grew to - not just dislike her, but hate her. Both options, she must have realized, are entirely untenable. Her relationship with Democrats and Republicans was irritable on good days, and her attempts to straighten her back and yell drew derisive laughter. For someone who has dipped a leg or two into the whirlpool of national politics, the contrast must be scalding. People who know Palin say that she cannot wait to - really wants to - play the role that she believes she now must play.
An ambitious, talented, ordinary American with an ordinary American's quirkiness and foibles was thrust into the spotlight (and with no small amount of thrusting forward on her part) and found that the real world confirmed in so many ways the beliefs she harbored about the elite and the moneyed class and the cultural cognoscenti.
She's in luck. The cultural and polite elite cannot stand Sarah Palin. In their view, her personal style grates; her intellect is sub-par; she is a walking mockery-making machine; she is suspicious, ignorant, oblivious, dishonest and dangerously casual with the facts. The elites v. Sarah Palin is just the latest incarnation in the great American culture war, and Palin no longer wants to fight with one hand tied behind her back. She will do so, ironically, from comfortable places. There are hundreds and thousands of conservative activists who see her as the embodiment of something worth embodying, who bonded with her when she was first subjected to the scorn, and who are confused and angry about the world in Barack Obama's hands. Whether she runs for president or not, this crowd likes her; it makes her comfortable; it accepts her family, and it is where she wants to be.
With a few exceptions, almost every Republican I talk to in Washington quakes at the thought of her being their presidential nominee in 2012 (although a few wonder slyly if she'll go away if she's offered up as a sacrifice that year.)
Another nail in the coffin of the GOP if Palin becomes their nominee in 2012. There is a related post at http://iamsoannoyed.com/?p=2048
Please, please, please run for president in 2012, Sarah Palin. I'm begging you. Assuming the Mittster doesn't carve you up, the Obama machine will.
I think (hope?) she's signed a seven-figure contract with Fox. If we can all agree on nothing else, surely we can all agree that that makes better use of her talents than working in government would.
"An ambitious, talented, ordinary American with an ordinary American's quirkiness"
Did we stop talking about Palin? I grew up in "Ordinary America", the exact kind of small towns that she (understandably) rhapsodizes about, and I don't know any people who lie as constantly and poorly as she does, who thrust their family into everyone's line of sight as she does, who flirt with religious and political extremists as she does, who communicate only in canned answers and bumper sticker slogans as she does. Calling her that is an insult to ordinary Americans.
colby's right in a way: the reaction to Palin does have a small-town feel to it. As in, the attempts by a corrupt local elite (Dems and GOP) to repel an outsider. They do that through lying and spreading rumors, with some rumors started by mid-level hacks like small-town reporters and others spread anonymously. Some people might even be paid by the town bosses to spread rumors.
P.S. In case any Palin supporters who have websites want to fight back in an effective way, see this.
Dear A.S.,
Palin is not "ordinary," despite her anti-intellectual posturing and fake down home speeches. Unlike most Americans,she seems to have only passing acquaintance with truth ( despite her so-called "truth to power" effort with Big Oil.) And her attacks, bordering on hate speech, that she aimed at Obama had many people gasping at her viciousness. Let's also remember her hypocrisy on many issues, her own exploitation of her children ( cover of People Magazine for Bristol and babe, hello?) Palin is beyond the pale. Kate Kline May
Assuming there is no scandal shoe about to drop
"Assuming." Ha! Hoo-hoo!!! "Assuming". HAHAHAHAHA!!!
she doesn't quite know why she is doing what she's doing,
Or...she knows exactly why, and she's flailing to put a positive spin on whatever exogenous force pushed her out.
"She believes what she says (and implies)"
This actually says quite a bit. You can look at the modern Republican Party's rise and fall as a function of it believing its own bullshit. Nixon didn't believe a word he was saying, but it got the backlash voters to the polls. Reagan didn't DISBELIEVE what he said, but he was willing and capable of being convinced otherwise. At any rate, he wasn't outright lying like Nixon. Dubya and Palin, though, they BELIEVE their BS.
Why use today's informal address to detail Palin's future plans? Anyone who would have expected that is entirely unrealistic. She will announce her future plans and, thereby grab the news coverage again, at a later time.
Anyone who started the day as a Palin detractor was not expected to change his perspective from today's news, that is far too high an objective from such an announcement. Detractors will view today's news from their own prism.
However, you close one door and you open another. Sarah Palin will not be announcing for 2012 anytime soon. She will begin her political campaign much as other politicians do, publish and promote her book, write opinion pieces, give timely select interviews. She will also form her board of advisers.
Stay tuned.
Seriously...you only need to look at that press conference to realize that something major is about to drop. Her twitter just before the news conference made it seem she was simply not running for re-election. She has no story. She has no plan. She has nothing except the cold hard fact that she's quit on her state in the middle of a fiscal crisis. She's quit and then made noises about CAMPAIGNING instead of governing or writing a blasted book. She is done. She won't make it past the Republican primaries. She won't make it past anyone: every single election she attempts she's going to be called out as the quitter.
Quitters never win. And the contrast with Clinton's never say die primary campaign is JARRING.
The story here is (1) What the heck is so big she's running this scared and (2) how bad is this going to hit the GOP and is it an Alaska story or is it tied to the McCain-Palin campaign and has national legs beyond the fact that Sarah Palin is involved.
If I was you, I'd be looking for some McCain-Palin peeps and asking them what they think; and calling around to find out what's up with these reports of federal indictments likely coming down on Palin.
@ colby re: ordinary Americans
Thank you, Colby. I listened beginning to end to Sarah Palin's "speech" yesterday several times. Admittedly, I could not follow or grasp her rambling train of thought very well but there was her reference to "real Americans" again. She does believe she is representative (and maybe even the epitome) of that group. Of course, that group consists only of people who espouse everything she does. So, other "ordinary Americans" like you and me would be considered anti-American by her and yes, elite. If she were not so hate-filled, so small-minded, so self-centered and therefore so dangerous, her antics would be laughable. As an "ordinary American," I have to ask: Are there really other "ordinary Americans" who truly understand Sarah Palin when she speaks? I feel like I'm listening to a foreign language with English as its base.
And while I appreciate Marc's analysis, I'm with Rhoda. I can't shake the feeling that Sarah Palin is about to become the target of something quite serious -- and she knows it.
What if, like most of us, she believes that she is honestly trying to cope with her world and to behave in an honest and straightforward manner? Why is it so hard to imagine that she is a normal woman with a normal desire to live a meaningful and purposeful life? Why must she be demonized just because she had the presumption to challenge Barack Obama?
My daughters were athletes. It is easy for me to relate to her as a product of Title 9, whether she was varsity college or not. She came to adulthood as a young female athlete. She married her childhood sweetheart. She was honored by her hometown when she was elected mayor. (Can we help it if our hometown happens to be small?) She caught the attention of John McCain, and/or other cognoscenti. She's a normal woman in an extraordinary situation.
Do the folks that hate Sarah Palin even have daughters? Do the folks that hate Sarah Palin have daughters who were athletes? Do the folks that hate Sarah Palin have daughters who married young and who have produced grandchildren?
My question is not whether Sarah Palin is normal, but are the Sarah Palin haters normal?
I have spent my entire life as a self conscious liberal, democrat (sometime Green Party member), effete intellectual who voted for McGovern in 1972 and who has never voted for a Republican Presidential candidate. Yet, because of my experience with my own daughters, I cannot hate Sarah Palin.
I am the mother of a daughter. I am a single mother, working full-time for most of my daughter's life. I can hate Sarah Palin - not Sarah Palin the person (we've never met), but Sarah Palin the politician. The one who made hate speeches "okay" in the last election (and I'm not American, so can't vote, but for crying out loud, she all but called for assassination attempts at some of her rallies). The one who can dish it, but can't take it. The one who USED HER KIDS AS POLITICAL PROPS and then called foul when shots were taken at those props. That some of the shots were inappropriate is irrelevant - she set them up in the first place, so needs to take responsibility for the results. This is the same politician that bent (and continues to bend, at will) the truth without blinking an eye. The same MOTHER that dragged her young, disabled child around like a prop, held and managed by other children/props as she fed her personal ambition.
Having a child - daughter or son - doesn't immediately give you Madonna-like morals, skills or abilities. It means you can physically procreate, period.
Parenthood - whether mother or father - requires more often than not putting your child(ren)'s best interests ahead of your own.
When has Sarah Palin done that in the past year(s)?
Until time passes and no indictments or book deals or speech deals or whatever appear, I will continue to doubt, with confidence, that her resignation had ANYONE's best interests in mind other than her own.
Exactly, but too many people, Palin included, use this as a shield as they pontificate, and dare any challenges simply because they "have children". Palin didn't understand that the shield doesn't work in a presidential bid.
I'm sorry, but what the hell do daughters who are athletes have to do with anything? What a bizarre logical non-sequitur.
For starters, I dislike Palin because of her arrogance and presumption. She was absurdly unqualified to run for VP, yet seemed completely unaware of it.
I dislike her because she clearly dislikes me. She has a serious inferiority/persecution complex about people she consideres "elites."
I dislike her because she runs around declaring which parts of the country are and are not the "American-loving" parts. She is part and parcel of the culture war that the GOP likes to use to divide the country.
I dislike her for her thin skin, and her phoniness. SNL, Jay Leno and others made similar jokes about her knocked-up daughter last fall after which...she did an appearance on SNL. Letterman makes a similar joke and she goes off the rails, because she hadn't been in the headlines for a while and needed to fire up her troops.
Finally, I dislike her phony personality. She is mean, spiteful, bitter and defamatory, yet tries to hide it behind a smile and a cheerful "you betcha" that turns my stomach.
I could easily think of more. You get the idea. What the hell her being a high school athlete has to do with anything...wow that's just weird.
@ManOverBoard: I do not "demonize Sarah Palin because she had the presumption to challenge Barack Obama". She never has mounted a serious challenge to him. I am all in favor of true political debate but I will not forget or forgive her rabble-rousing behavior at rallies where crackpots shouted threats to the man who is now our President.
Perhaps your love for your daughters has allowed you to feel something for Governor Palin that I could never feel. I hope this is the end of her political career and the beginning of a lucrative job at Fox News where she can remain in th bubble of her delusions and feel proud of her accomplishments. I have no way of knowing if any of her utterances are sincere but I do know she has a bad habit of lying.
Palin's rhetorical M.O. has been the Orwellian trick of feigning the exact opposite aka "protesting too much", e.g. her stating she's resigning because she was raised not to be a quitter. That suggests to me, she truly is quitting politics and, it follows, for wimpy reasons, or she'd have given better ones.
The Vanity Fair article zeroed in personally, but that's what successful pols learn to live with. Same is true with insinuations of breaking scandal.
The problem may be her need to be perceived to her base as divinely ordained. For telling contrast, consider what Hillary endured with Whitewater, Monica et al, Bill's impeachment, plus the media digs on her sexual attractiveness, including by John McCain. Compared to Hillary, what a wimp Sarah now seems.
There are presently nine Republican governors being termed out and one who is forgoing an allowable third term. A total of ten lame ducks who are "milking" the system and the taxpayers. Since cleaning your own house should always be the first order of buisness , we can only hope that Sarah will lead the charge to confront these ne'er-do-wells who somehow believe they could escape her eagle like gaze. It will be good practice before she takes her Aimee Semple McPherson/Joan of Ark act to the larger national stage.
"The elites v. Sarah Palin is just the latest incarnation in the great American culture war ..."
I think she's a much more potent force than we Atlantic readers are giving her credit for. What she represents is the last stand of the old white folk in "flyover" country, whose jobs are being shed by this recession, against the mainly white portion of the so-called creative class.
If she does enter the presidential race in some capacity, I think there will be quite a fight. Old America is mad as hell.
They can be as mad as they like, but they do not have the votes. 30% of the country is crazy about Palin. About another 10% might put up with her. 40% is her best case scenario, and every GOP politician and operative in the country knows it.
Interesting to view the smug anti GOP and anti Palin comments here. Meanwhile the good ship America heads for the rocks. Obama is quadrupling the deficit. Borrow Borrow and dodge the hard decisions is the Democrat motto. Remember in 2012 Obama will have been in power for 4 years. The Democrats control Congress. Independent voters will not accept lame Democratic excuses.
There is increasing evidence that more and more Independents are unhappy with the huge spending splurge. The Democratic Party is at its peak. It is downhill from here.
The Democratic Party may be at its peak and heading downhill but I'm certainly not buying the idea that we can then turn the country back over to the GOP and their, ahem, good stewardship...
I wish that Americans would focus on the fact that a Kleptocracy is in charge of this nation and ignore the culture wars which are stoked in order to obscure this fact. Both major parties are in the pockets of huge corporations and serve those interests rather than the interests of the American people. "Republicans vs. Democrats" is exactly the diversion that the "powers that be" would like to see us play ad infinitum while they fleece us blind.
And things would have been different with McCain? He fell all over himself during the campaign to get to Congress and "take charge". He made it abundantly clear how things would have gone with respect to the economic situation, and his advisors would have been telling him the same things Obama's advisors are; to spend taxpayer's money to help the big failures.
It has been clear for decades now that Congress is not about running the government for the people. Both parties have had the reins, and neither has even attempted to focus the energies of the "government of the people", to the people it is actually supposed to govern.
Sure, Sarah is raising big questions about this decision but you know in "genuine" Palin fashion something big is coming down the pipeline and she had to get out of the way before things got really bad for the GOP. Amongst all the speculators out there this seems like more of the same so we'll all be waiting anxiously to see what big news is about to break and I have a feeling it's coming reallllly soon. xo Hair Styles
TO ALL YOU MYOPTIC TOAD LIBERAL BIRDBRAINS OUT THERE... ESPECIALLY YOU
"RHODA" ....
FIRST THE FBI CONFIRMED TODAY THAT THERE IS !! NO !! INVESTIGATION OF PALIN WHATSOEVER BY ANYONE,INCLUDING THE FBI AND OTHER FEDERAL AGENCYS.
SO IF YOU WANT TO JUMP OFF THE ROOF FACE FIRST NOW RHODA.. PLEASE FEEL FREE.. AND IF YOU DO..COULD YOU WEAR A HEAD CAM SO WE CAN ALL WATCH!
=======================
THAT SAID...SECOND
SINCE LIFE IS MUCH MORE COMPLICATED THAN MOST LIBERAL BIRDCHIT BRAINS CAN FATHOM.. IT MIGHT SURPRISE YOU TO KNOW THAT ALL THESE FRIVILOUS ETHICS COMPLAINTS THAT HAVE BEEN 100 % DISMISSED OFFICIALLY...HAVE COST SARA AND HER FAMILY OVER $500,000 DOLLARD TO LEGALLY DEFEND... IT WAS OF COURSE SOME MYOPTIC 3 CELLED INVERTIBRATE LIBERALS WHO FILED THESE MORONIC CHARGES.. YOU WOULD HAVE TO READ THEM TO SEE JUST HOW IGNORANT THEY WERE... ONLY A TRUE LIBERAL COULD RISE TO THIS LEVEL OF STUPIDITY..
SOOOOO... BY RESIGNING HER POSITION, SHE GETS TO CLAIM THE LOSS OF INCOME, ALL THE FINANCIAL LEGAL COSTS SHE PAID, AND ANY FUTURE LOSSES FOR THE NEXT 3 YEARS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THEM, OFF OF HER FEDERAL AND STATE TAXES, SO YOU LIBERAL BIRDBRIANS... SARA AND FAMILY JUST MADE A FORTUNE IN TAX REFUND OFF OF YOUR STUPIDITY... THEY WILL PROBABLY COME OUT AHEAD SEVERAL HUNDERED THOUSAND DOLLARS RICHER... I COMMEND YOU SARA FOR TAKING THEIR ATTACK AND SHOVING UP THEIR AZZ AND BREAKING IT OFF..LOL
========================
SARA PALIN BECAME KNOWN IN ALASKA POLITICS AS SARA THE BARRACUDA... SHE TOOK DOWN A BUNCH OF LONG TIME MALE CAREER POLITIICAN THEIVES... THEY ARE ALL BANKRUPT OR IN JAIL NOW... THEY LAUGHED AT HER TOO..BUT NOT FOR LONG AFTER SHE BROKE IT OFF IN THEIR BUTTS...
SOOOOOO...DO YOU REALLLLLLLY THINK SHES STUPID OR DUMB ?????
IF YOU DO, I HAVE SOME NICE LAND TO SELL IN FLORIDA CALL ME...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
SARA IS ABOUT TO COME CLEAN IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS ABOUT WHATS AFOOT,
AND TRUST ME, SHES GOING TO STICK IT UP THE LIBERALS AZZ AND BREAK IT
OFF...SO DEEP IT WILL TAKE A ROOTER ROOUTER SWAT TEAM TO FIND IT, SARA CUDA ALWAYS GETS EVEN OR BETTER, ALWAYS...SOMETHING BIG, BAD AND UGLY IS COMING FOR THE LIBERALS AND DEMOCRATS AT HER MAKING...AND TRUST ME ITS NOT GOING TO SOMETHING PRETTY..SHES GOING TO NUKE THEM...BUT GOOD...
AND I WILL BE LAUGHING SO HARD WHEN IT HAPPENS, ILL NEED OXYGEN...
GO SARA !!! SHOVE IT UP THEIR AZZ...BIGTIME
BIRDBRAIN,
STATE INVESTIGATORS HAVE FOUND THAT PALIN HAS COMMITTED SEVERAL ETHICS VIOLATIONS. I.E. IN TROOPERGATE PALIN ABUSED THE POWERS OF HER OFFICE BY LOBBYING FOR THE DISMISAL OF AN OFFICER. PALIN ABUSED THE POWERS OF HER OFFICE BY USING STATE FUNDS TO FLY HER ENTIRE FAMILY TO POLITICAL EVENTS.
THOSE ARE JUST TWO, THERE ARE MORE, WE WILL FIND THEM.
AFTER TRIG WAS BORN, PALIN CIRCULATED AN ANNOUNCEMENT EMAIL WHICH SHE SIGNED; 'TRIG'S CREATOR, ALMIGHTY GOD'.
YEAH, THAT'S WHO I WANT IN OFFICE. AN INTELLECTUALLY, MORALLY, AND ETHICALLY CHALLENGED MORON WITH DELUSIONS OF BIBLICAL GRANDEUR.
SHEESH, WHAT A NINNY.
Chitowncarl
Whoa, Paul. Pull back on the reins, you're working your steed up into a lather.
A couple of facts you won't hear on Fox:
1) The governor was entitled to state-provided legal representation for the ethics complaints. She chose to hire a very expensive private attorney instead. She has a lucrative future in front of her even if she doesn't pursue politics -- a book deal, speaking fees, television appearances, etc. But she's asking average wage earners to pay her legal bills. Can't quite put my finger on it, just seems like there's something wrong there.
2) She INVITED the first ethics investigation (Troopergate): "I told you to hold me accountable; bring it on." Then, after the legislative investigation began, she declared that the only state entity that could legally investigate her was the Alaska Personnel Board, which is appointed by . . . her. Huh?
She and her private attorney went to court to have the legislature's investigation declared unconstitutional. They lost, of course, since the premise of their lawsuit (that an elected official should only be subject to scrutiny by his or her appointees) was preposterous.
So Sarah instructed her personnel board to pursue its own investigation while the legislature proceeded with theirs.
The legislative investigation (which she impeded by forbidding key players to respond to subpoenas) found no hard evidence that she had personally used her position to pursue the personal vendetta, but did find that she had allowed her husband and staff to use state resources to do so. (She had approached the Public Safety Commissioner about reopening a personnel matter regarding the Trooper, and he had advised her not to go there because she was asking for a lawsuit.)
The investigation by her own personnel board -- surprise!! -- exonerated her completely.
I keep hearing that the legislative investigation was a ploy by Democrats to sink Good Ship Sarah. But our legislature is predominantly Republican, and the committee charged with overseeing the investigation consisted of 4 Democrats and 8 Republicans.
You ought to track down the legislative investigator's report. It's a very entertaining read. (Our First Dude was stalking the Trooper, even followed him 100 miles off road on a snow machine, and later explained that his motivation was fear! Oh, and the moose? Her father and sister helped butcher it and eat it, but didn't get around to reporting it as an illegal kill until after the divorce. For her part, Sarah couldn't understand why the Troopers couldn't prosecute the officer without prosecuting her sister and dad. Sigh.)
3) The majority of Sarah's legal fees are related to her efforts to shut down the Troopergate investigation AFTER requesting that the legislature proceed with it.
4) Many of the other ethics charges do seem frivolous, but you're missing the mark when you say that she has been 100% cleared in all of them. (See Use of Personal E-Mail Accounts to Conduct State Business, Inappropriate Use of State Funds to Transport Family Members.) The findings that she had transgressed boundaries did seem to be due more to lack of awareness than nefarious intent.
But she was NOT obligated to hire her own attorney to defend herself. Again, she was entitled to state-sponsored representation, and she chose an expensive private attorney instead. And remember: You're supposed to help her pay the bill.
5) Strings attached to the $28.6 million in stimulus money that she declined (which will be now disbursed to another state):
Minimal, requiring the state to ENCOURAGE Bush communities to adopt energy-friendly building codes.
And she knows it. She was pandering to her national fan base instead of taking care of her constituency at home.
5) Sarah's being pounded on the back for "cutting waste out of government". Sounds great, but sometimes dogma doesn't translate so well when we attempt to put it into practice. Our state administration is being labeled as "dysfunctional" by commentators who have been very strong Palin supporters in the past. It is very frustrating to call a state office over and over again for days on end and get a recording that tells you that your call is very important and so you should call back later -- no opportunity to leave a message. I had to drive 120 miles round trip to the state's business licensing division to get an answer to a question after trying to call them for three days and being unable to get anyone to pick up the phone. Anyone you talk to who has had to deal with the state recently has their own horror story. (The state trotted out the 2008 corporate tax forms just a week or two before the filing deadline.)
Sarah swept Alaskans off our feet with her charisma and her promises to "reach across the aisle", "bring accountability to government", and be "open and transparent". It turns out tshe's just another politician (she has been characterized her as the most obfuscatory governor in state history for a reason), and our feelings are really hurt.
Still, that article in Runner's World made me fall in love all over again.
Palin to make a run for the Presidency in 2016?
Time is a great healer of reputation in politics. Just ask Al Gore or former British Prime Minister John Major. The key quote from Mrs Palin's rambling statement is "I am now looking ahead and how we can advance this country together with our values of … I hope you will join me. Now is the time to rebuild and help our nation achieve greatness." It is obvious that Team Palin want to create their own, national, political movement. This movement will focus on the relevant populist issue which has the best chance of advancing the movements cause, Mrs Palin herself.
It is always harder to run against an incumbent. By the end of Obama's second term will the US voter be tired of having a leader who is cool in temperament and intellectualises every decision that he makes? This possibility will be stronger if Obama's plans for reforming the country become over ambitious or if his foreign policy leads people to feeling less safe.
Is there method in her madness? I would guess no. For my money Mrs Palin's political career offers strong evidence in that chaos theory exists. I do not think that this Al Gore strategy is what was in Mrs Palin's mind when she made her decision, it is just a possible outcome.
Now that the dust is settling a bit, I've come around to Ambinder's take on this. Although this cuts against the grain of the justifiable cynicism we have towards politicians, it's often simplest to assume good faith when interpreting their statements. This is especially true in this case, because it's pretty clear that that speech came directly from Palin.
So: Palin really is sick of being mired in Alaska as an ineffectual governor. She really does believe that she and her family are under constant attack from a political and media elite. And she really does believe she could be more effective as the leader of a movement on a national stage than as an executive with actual governing responsibilites.
All of this says horrible things about her abilities, worldview, and character, but it nevertheless seems to fit the pattern better than any other explanation. Of course I can't entirely rule out the scandal theory, but right now I'm not seeing it.
Disclaimer: I am a social liberal (fiscal conservative, but that's for another discussion).
I hate quitters. I lost all respect for Al Gore and Joe Lieberman for quitting the 2000 election. I understand terms like "political viability", "decorum", and "falling in, rather than dividing".
For the same reason, I have lost respect for soon-to-be Ex. Gov. Palin.
We all face individual challenges in life, and how we respond is the measure of our characters. And for someone in a position of power to affect (that's how you know she "wrote" the speech) change to quit, shows a lack of moral fortitude.
I was never a McCain/Palin supporter, but I followed Ex. Gov. Palin as a political oddity. Wondering if she would ever harness her rousing gifts of oratory and polemics to center on a particular cause she believes in (still wondering the same about President Obama). But to leave, for reasons as yet unstated (not family, not mental health, not physical illness/exhaustion), is sheer politics.
And it should be demeaning, or at least, off-putting to those that would support her. I mean if I [they,we] can "tough it out", why can't she?
And why should she be forgiven for it?
Ok, it's fun to make fun of Palin, and she obliges us with a non-stop stream of outrageous material. The bottom line for me is she is a polarizer. What stands out most to me is her comment about the "Real Americans," whom to her are small town white people. Meanwhile, most Americans, over eighty percent, live around urban areas, and we as a nation are becoming less and less Caucasian:
http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2008/1008_smalltowns_katz.aspx
I happen to be a lilly white person who lives in a small town, pop. 3,000.
Above all, her overt and covert racism horrifies me. The days of politicians joking about "us and them" are over. Demographics argue against it. I recently stood in the customs line of fellow Americans in an airport. There were ladies in saris, Hassidic men in their black hats, and people of all colors. This is America. It's over for Sarah Palin. She stands for a small group of angry white people who think immigrants have ruined it for "Real Americans." What she shares with her small group of constituents is the tendency to blame others for her shortcomings.