Politics with Marc Ambinder

September 20, 2009 - September 26, 2009 Archives

Sep 26 2009, 8:30AM

Question Of The Weekend: What Would It Take?

After the disclosure of Iran's secret nuclear program, sanctions loom near on the horizon. What would it take to get Iran to give up its nuclear program?

Sep 25 2009, 5:57PM

Conservatives Who Want To Cap Emissions

They exist...but they all live in Europe. With Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK), the leading U.S. climate skeptic (which puts him high in the running for leading climate skeptic worldwide) having pledged to bring his views to the international climate summit in Copenhagen in December, Salon's Joe Conason takes a look at how the conservative leaders of France, Germany, and Sweden all lay claim to climate-consciousness...despite their conservatism. Of course, Sarkozy and Merkel are no Palin and Romney: American conservatism and European conservatism have more differences than just climate change, and American conservatives may not soon emulate their foreign analogues, on a wide range of other issues too. But environmentalists can hope.

Sep 25 2009, 4:23PM

A Different View: So What If Iran Gets The Bomb?

The political scientist John Mueller, the Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies at the Ohio State University, has written "Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda," and his thesis is that the world's magical thinking and alarmism about nuclear energy and nuclear weapons has significantly distorted policy making and threatens to leave the United States more vulnerable to more pressing threats. Mueller's opinions are not shared by most of his colleagues, but they are taken seriously -- he's not a provocateur. I asked Mueller this morning to put the news about Iran in the context of his theories.  How much of a threat is Iran's proliferation? How much of a threat is the West's obsession with Iran's proliferation?

"No one has been killed by nuclear weapons in recent memory and lots of people have been killed by our obsession with proliferation, especially in Iraq," he says.

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Sep 25 2009, 3:53PM

"If I Were Mr. Obama's Adviser..."

Here's the interview with Time in which Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad denies that Iran broke rules in building a nuclear plant without notifying the International Atomic Energy Agency (Ahmadinejad says Iran wasn't required to and that Iran works within the IAEA's framework). Ahmadinejad looks mildly surprised as Time Managing Editor Richard Stengel informs him that President Obama is (as they speak) about to accuse Iran of building the undisclosed site

"Mr. Obama is about to say [this]?" he asks, through a translator. He doesn't look altogether ruffled, though.

Sep 25 2009, 1:59PM

ACORN Decries "Lynching"

Led by Democrats this time, the House of Representatives has voted again to deny any federal funds to ACORN in the wake of its scandal, and ACORN is decrying its public treatment since that scandal broke as a "public lynching" called for by Fox News.

The House passed a continuing resolution today that will keep the federal government up and running through October, and the bill contained language, as reported by The Huffington Post's Ryan Grim, that prohibits any of its funding from going to ACORN, which has received federal funds in the past for non-political work assisting low-income citizens.

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Sep 25 2009, 12:55PM

They'll Be Back Tuesday

The Senate Finance Committee's health care markup, which has been going on since Tuesday with a total of 564 amendments on the agenda, has finally adjourned for the weekend after hours upon hours of voting and debate each day. The committee will resume marking up the "chairman's mark"--Chairman Max Baucus's draft legislation--on Tuesday, at which point it's expected to consider adding a public option to the bill (which currently provides for co-ops), in the form of an amendment offered by Sens. Charles Schumer (D-NY) and Jay Rockefeller (D-WV). It's not expected to pass, as the co-op plan was engineered and pushed forward as a compromise by some Democrats in the room (Baucus and Sen. Kent Conrad of North Dakota). It's long been public knowledge that "at least three" Democrats in the Senate oppose a public option, and the intriguing part on Tuesday will be exactly how many Democrats on the committee support it.

Sep 25 2009, 12:01PM

Census Worker Death: Time for Calm

My pals at Talkingpointsmemo.com are doing an ace job tracking the death of that Census worker in Kentucky, the one with the word "Fed" written on his chest. The first gruesome details of the case played perfectly into concerns that an antigovernment atmosphere had led to a murder. But Zach Roth notes that the FBI has not determined if it was a homicide and also notes that the marijuana-and-meth trade in that part of the state raises the possibility he was in the wrong place at the wrong time. So everyone should take a deep breath.

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Sep 25 2009, 11:21AM

Obama, Terror, Nukes and the Week That Was

The most remarkable story of the week -- the most important story to most Americans -- was not the breaking story that featured the President of the United States and the leaders of the world. The FBI and NYPD may have broken up the biggest domestic terrorism plot since 9/11. And this administration, deliberately, chose to stay in the background, chose to let senior law enforcement officials take the lead, and did nothing to generate the sort of panic and fear that the office of the president, when marshaled to discuss these types of things, can bring to bear, even by accident.

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Sep 25 2009, 10:55AM

More Obamaites to Copenhagen

It looks like Ray LaHood is the latest to join the delegation of Obamaites and Chicagoans going to Copenhagen for a final pitch to get the 2016 Summer Olympics for the windy city. I saw LaHood this morning for an interview and asked if the former congressman from Peoria, Illinois was getting involved in the pitch. He said that he was and would help reassure International Olympic Committee members that Chicago had the transportation infrastructure to handle the megaevent. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan, the former superintendent of Chicago schools and an IOC member as well as First Lady Michelle Obama and Oprah Winfrey are going to Denmark as well. Will Chicago Goldwater Girl Hillary Clinton show up as well? I wouldn't be shocked.

Sep 25 2009, 9:26AM

Iran's Secret: What's Next?

First, note a distinction made by former chief UN weapons inspector David Albright: Iran is more worried about being found in non-compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty than it is with whatever the UN Security Council resolves. The former includes built-in punitive measures, and it is quite possible that Iran built this secret facility with an expansive interpretation of the NPT in mind. Second: there are roughly three levels of economic sanctions against Iran. Level one -- the least punitive -- would be to stop selling them gasoline, something they can't produce themselves. Level two -- a broader array of sanctions on other goods. Level three -- the world shuns Iran's key export -- oil. That would cripple their economy and produce significant suffering among the Iranian people. Here's betting that the U.S. is now working to build Russian and Chinese support for the tier-one sanctions. Finally, note the deadline for compliance set by French President Sarkozy: December. What happens if Iran does not allow full IAEA inspections by then? That was left unstated. Implicitly, the threat of military action by Israel (which, just between us, would make the Saudis and Egyptian leaders kind of happy, although they would pretend to be outraged) has been moved closer to the edge of the table. Still, there is every indication that President Obama wants to do everything he can to settle this dispute peacefully. He was briefed on this intelligence before he became president, and yet he still pursued a strategy of engagement. Iran's acknowledging something the U.S. already knew does not necessarily change the strategic calculus all that much. Indeed, Obama went out of his way this morning to stress that Iran still had a right to a "peaceful" nuclear energy program.

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Sep 25 2009, 9:26AM

An Immune System for the Planet: Bill McKibben on Organizing Popular Action When Political Leaders Disappoint

Bill McKibben, author of the first global warming book for a general audience, was none too impressed with President Obama's speech to the U.N.'s climate summit on Tuesday. Obama stressed the urgency of the climate crisis and the need for diplomatic cooperation by industrial giants but also by developing countries. While many listeners appreciated the president's strong-handed rhetoric, McKibben thought he set the bar too low. Or, actually, not low enough.

The environmental writer and activist (and erstwhile Atlantic contributor) spearheads a global movement to embrace an atmospheric carbon target of 350 parts per million (ppm). This figure is a good 20 percent below the 450 ppm target that's recently populated pragmatic debate and that was espoused in the climate bill the House passed over the summer. But just ten months ago, leading climatologist Jim Hansen presented a paper stating that "if humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted," atmospheric carbon must inch no higher than 350. A bit disconcerting, given the current level of around 390.

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Sep 25 2009, 9:25AM

The State Dept.'s Growing Language Barrier

GAO recently released a report (.pdf) on "persistent foreign language shortfalls" in the Foreign Service, the diplomatic arm of the State department. 31% of overseas officers stationed at language-designated positions fall short of the speaking and reading proficiency requirements for their jobs. This number rises to roughly 40% when focused on officers serving in locations of strategic significance, like East Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. The report states, for example:
43 percent of officers in Arabic language-designated positions do not meet the requirements of their positions (107 officers in 248 filled positions), nor do 66 percent of officers in Dari positions (21 officers in 32 positions), 38 percent in Farsi (5 officers in 13 positions), or 50 percent in Urdu (5 officers in 10 positions).

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Sep 25 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: Will G20 Produce Anything Substantive?

The G20 is meeting in Pittsburgh, and financial regulatory reform will be high on the agenda. Will the summit produce anything that will substantially affect financial practices, markets and the global economy?

Sep 25 2009, 6:00AM

The Rundown, 9/25

It's day two of the G20 summit in Pittsburgh (which Caitlan Smith says is a fitting location), and big topics from financial regulatory reform to global economic progress to climate change will be discussed near smokestacks and river. After the massive meeting in New York, Obama will play host to a slightly less massive meeting of international bigwigs, with morning and afternoon sessions, a lunch in between, and a press conference when it's all over.

American moneyman Timothy Geithner will speak at the morning session, and he'll host a working lunch with finance ministers.

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Sep 24 2009, 10:21PM

WH Counsel Greg Craig Might Leave Because of Gitmo?

Here is a story from the Washington Post and Pro Publica that reports the facts faithfully but does not, I believe, come to the correct conclusion. The essence of the article is that Greg Craig, the White House counsel, is taking the blame for the Guantanamo closing and the messiness that resulted from it, and that the administration took away Gitmo from his portfolio, and that Craig may be, ah, promoted out of the White House to a job on the federal bench or become an ambassador.

Here's what I don't get: if there's one thing that would cause Craig to earn the displeasure of his boss, President Obama, Gitmo wouldn't be it. It was Obama who insisted on closing Gitmo in a year. The administration always assumed that Congress would give them some problems. It anticipated a bit of panic (though not as much panic as the Democrats ginned up). But -- as the end of the year-long closure period approaches -- the process, it turns out, seems to have been a good one. Now -- it was very messy. It required adjustments and more supervision from other White House managers -- Craig is not much of a manager -- but -- Gitmo's gonna be closed, relatively on time, maybe a few months late. The administration has concluded that it needs no new legal authority to get the prisoners off of the island. Many prisoners have been released. Others have been transferred to friendly countries. Trials -- always the toughest part of this -- are beginning. But a major symbol of American badness is no longer haunting the halls of our country's self-identity. Closing Gitmo, from A to Z, is an unprecedented feat of bureaucracy. I know from first hand reporting that, if there's one thing that President Obama respects his counsel for, it's been his commitment to getting Gitmo right.

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Sep 24 2009, 6:08PM

The Invisible Primary, 9/24

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Ed Schultz has challenged Eric Cantor to a debate on health care; Public Policy Polling finds Mike Huckabee performing best in a speculative election matchup against Obama, taking 41 percent vs. Obama's 48, beating out Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, and Jeb Bush; controversial Sheriff Joe Arpaio's planned attendance at a Romney fundraiser at Chase Field in Phoenix is reportedly costing Romney some support for the event; and Palin, in her speech in Hong Kong, pressed for deeper involvement in Afghanistan.

Sep 24 2009, 5:32PM

Hurtling Toward 2010, 9/24

The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:

Massachusetts gained a senator today, as Gov. Deval Patrick (D) appointed Paul Kirk, formerly the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, to serve in place of the late Sen. Ted Kennedy until a special election is held; Rep. Ron Kind (D-WI) will not run for governor; a Club for Growh-commissioned poll shows New York's 23rd district race to succeed Rep. John McHugh (R) to be a three-way tossup; Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) insists she's running for governor, despite Gov. Rick Perry's (R) claim of skepticism; and a Marist poll reported that 62 percent of New Yorkers think the White House should mind its own business when it comes to Gov. David Paterson's (D) reelection plans.

Sep 24 2009, 5:09PM

Senator Paul Kirk

Anyone who's met Paul Kirk knows he's a charmer, an old school lawyer-lobbyist in the vein of Robert Strauss, another former Democratic National Committee chairman. Apparently the Kennedys wanted him in the job, and now he's got it. But was this really the best pick, and what have Democrats done with their chances to appoint five senators since the election? I will be careful here since one of the picks involves my boss's brother.

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Sep 24 2009, 4:48PM

Louisiana Dems: Defund Vitter

Pursuant to the Senate's vote to cut off federal funding for the scandal-ridden ACORN, employees of which were caught on giving prostitution-business advice to a fake pimp with a camera, the Louisiana Democratic Party has seized on the opportunity to remind people of another prostitution-related scandal, that of Sen. David Vitter (R-LA): the party has launched a petition to "defund" Vitter, just as ACORN was defunded.

Sep 24 2009, 4:24PM

The Abolition of Nuclear Weapons: Is It Possible?

I don't know the answer to the above question. But it's amazing that the idea now gets such serious discussion. Today, the president led the UN's passage of a resolution calling for such a goal. And while resolutions are all well and good, this one comes at a time when serious policy makers and one-time hawks now see the end of nukes as a realistic thing. Reagan's Defense Secretary Frank Carlucci and one of his arms control pointmen, Richard Burt, are on board with Global Zero, the group that's pushing this the hardest.

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Sep 24 2009, 3:37PM

(Don't) Read The Bill!

For all the clamor over senators "read the bill" that we've heard this summer, Slate's John Dickerson has an argument against reading the bill: senators have staffs to do that for them, like homebuyers use lawyers to review final contracts, so they can focus on the big picture. And just because they read it doesn't mean they understand it.

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Sep 24 2009, 3:37PM

Most Folks Aren't Sick Of Obama Just Yet...

Is President Obama overexposed? CBS News's latest finds that 58% of those surveyed say that he's making about the right number of television appearances (with four percent -- presumably in the White House -- who think he's making too few appearances.) Broken down by age, younger folks want to see Obama more than older folks. 56 percent of independents surveyed are OK with the level of presidential saturation, while 40% aren't. Even 37% of Republicans are comfortable. So maybe this question isn't worth asking...

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Sep 24 2009, 3:02PM

What Will Health Reform Do to Medicare Advantage?

The next reform battle will be fought in a peculiar trench of the health care landscape: Medicare Advantage. The latest controversy began when Humana Inc., an insurance company, sent a note to its enrollees predicting that health care reform would kick millions off Medicare Advantage -- an option for seniors to buy private insurance with public money. Some lawmakers castigated the company and a sterner whipping could be forthcoming. The Wall Street Journal op-ed page is spearheading the conservative indignation and some liberal blogs are playing defense.

But is it true? Will health care reform cut into Medicare Advantage?

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Sep 24 2009, 2:38PM

The Politics Of The Latest GMTO Decisions

To take care of the remaining prisoners at Guantanano Bay -- and to figure out how to hold them and pay for their detentions after Guantanamo closes in January, the Obama administration needs Congress to appropriate some money and to recognize a few untested claims of legal authority.

That's the policy underneath the politics of the latest administration decision on detention policy. Advocacy groups are cheering what they take to be a new tack by the administration, but what they've hailed turns out to be the legal equivalent of a stay: for now -- for now -- the administration doesn't think it needs any new authority to close the Guantanamo Bay ledger.

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Sep 24 2009, 1:40PM

"Do The Job You Were Elected To Do"

I'm not sure if Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) has any historical relationship with his 1990s predecessor, Republican Arne Carlson, but the latter had some choice words for Pawlenty this week amid Minnesota's struggle to deal with its budget deficit: "do the job you were elected to do." Pawlenty's trips out of state are "a criticism that Minnesotans have been dancing around," Carlson said, as reported by local news station KARE 11, the subtext here being that Pawlenty, who will not seek reelection in 2010, is already off and running for president. Meanwhile, a Pioneer Press op-ed suggests economics is not his strong suit, particularly that he "has preferred borrowing money (called bonding at the state level) or kicking the fiscal can down the road with budget gimmicks or by shifting the burden to local government"--a damning accusation while there's a budget crunch in the state, and, more significantly to Pawlenty's presidential aspirations, as economic conservatism dominates as the national Republican zeitgeist.

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Sep 24 2009, 11:18AM

Snubfest: Obama And Gordon Brown

It seems that every time Gordon Brown and Barack Obama are in the same place, news arises of a major snub.

First there was President Obama's removal of a bust of Winston Churchill, lent by Tony Blair to President Bush in 2001, from the Oval Office in January. Then, at his first formal meeting with Brown this spring, when the latter came to the U.S. to address Congress, there was no traditional joint press conference, leading to British headlines suggesting "humiliation" for Brown. On his way out of town, Brown gave Obama an ornamental pen made from wood from the Victorian anti-slave ship HMS Gannet; Obama gave Brown a set of DVDs. More reports of snubbery.

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Sep 24 2009, 7:02AM

Language Lessons In Nuclear Diplomacy

As the United Nations Security Council, led by President Barack Obama, addresses the topic of nuclear nonproliferation, it's worth paying careful attention to the language of nuclear diplomacy.

The line between a country that is capable of building a nuclear weapon at a moment's notice and a country that possesses them is very blurry. If Obama says that the U.S. pledges to never use nuclear weapons on a country that does not possess them, it has serious implications for the protective umbrella under which Japan and South Korea huddle. In practical terms, the least destructive response to a conventional North Korean attack against South Korea could be a tactical nuclear weapon. What will the doctrine say to terrorists who possess nuclear weapons but aren't harbored by a state? What about a state that combines its technology with a terrorist entity to produce a WMD? What if North Korea decides to give its nuclear weapons to another state?

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Sep 24 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: Does The World See Us Differently?

President Obama made sure to differentiate himself from his predecessor when he addressed the U.N. yesterday. America has "re-engaged" at the U.N., "paid our bills," and joined the Human Rights Council. Do you think the world sees America as differently as Obama has portrayed it?

Sep 24 2009, 6:00AM

The Rundown, 9/24

After his big speech, today figures to be another big one for President Obama in New York, as he'll chair a special session of the U.N. security council devoted to nuclear non-proliferation. And we just might see Obama get one of his first international victories if the Security Council passes a non-proliferation resolution, as the president has made non-proliferation a centerpiece of his agenda this week. So, for Obama's fans that means...score!

Then it's on to Pittsburgh (which is supposed to be lovely this time of year) where the president will host a working dinner with G20 leaders as part of the G20 Summit there. The international work just never ends.

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Sep 23 2009, 6:07PM

Is Russia Coming Around On Sanctions?

For years, the United States has played Charlie Brown to Russia's Sally. Every time it appeared as if Russia were about to soften its opposition to tougher sanctions against Iran, Russia would pull away, leaving the U.S. frustrated and unfulfilled. Interests, financial and security, diverged too much.  Today, the Obama administration insists that its "reset" strategy is bearing real fruit.  A senior administration official, briefing the White House press corps on the Medvevev-Obama bilateral meeting in New York this afternoon, said that post-meeting remarks by Medvedev  about the inevitability of sanctions represented a "real change" in Russia's position. 

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Sep 23 2009, 5:30PM

The Invisible Primary, 9/23

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Sarah Palin delivered her much-anticipated speech to the CLSA Investors' Forum in Hong Kong today, touching on a wide range of topics and criticizing the government and the Fed in particular for bailouts; Mike Huckabee, when asked if he'll run in 2012, said it's "too early to jump into the shark-infested waters"; Jeb Bush criticized the National Republican Senatorial Committee for backing Gov. Charlie Crist over conservative upstart Marco Rubio in Florida's Senate race; and Newt Gingich placed an op-ed in The Washington Times, saying "the conservative hour in America has once again arrived."

Sep 23 2009, 5:00PM

Hurtling Toward 2010, 9/23

The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:

New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) is accusing challenger Chris Christie (R) of "throwing his weight around" to get out of penalty for traffic incidents; the latest polling shows Missouri's Senate race as a toss-up, with 46 percent support each for Robin Carnahan (D) and Rep. Roy Blunt (R); T. Boone Pickens endorsed Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R), who will face a tough primary challenge from Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison; Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington is asking the Justice Department to investigate Rep. Mike Ross's (D-AR) sale of a commercial property; and Linda McMahon (R) has cut her first TV ad in Connecticut's Senate race.

Sep 23 2009, 4:06PM

ACORN Suspends Tax Preparation Services

After Big Government blogger James O'Keefe videotaped ACORN workers, including a tax specialist in its Baltimore office, advising him (posing as a man who wanted to run for Congress) and a young woman who accompanied him (posing as a prostitute), on how to run a prostitution ring and get child tax credits for underage girls, ACORN has suspended its tax-preparation assistance services and its partnership with the IRS in educating citizens tax credits and preparation. The IRS, likewise, announced it is severing ties with ACORN. ACORN says it will revisit the decision after its internal review, which is being headed by former Massachusetts Attorney General Scott Harshbarger.

Here's the letter sent this week to IRS Commissioner Douglas Shulman:

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Sep 23 2009, 3:47PM

Palin's PAC Gets More Than It Gives

Doing some quick math on the list of PACs (political action committees, aka fundraising and donating organizations that serve as a politician's political-money arm) headed by potential 2012 GOP candidates I posted yesterday, The Enlightened Despot's Nick Saint points out that, of all of them, Sarah Palin's SarahPAC seems to be the stingiest, raising more money than it gives out, and doing so to a greater degree than any other on the list. This year, SarahPAC has raised 2.653 times what it's given out ($732,867 raised vs. $276,200 given). The next stingiest (by this ratio, not by dollars given) is Mitt Romney's Free and Strong America PAC, at 1.257.

SarahPAC ranks third in money raised, trailing Eric Cantor's ERICPAC (which sits at #2) by $271,726. Romney's PAC has raised the most of the group this year.

Sep 23 2009, 2:37PM

Obama's Speech: Reactions

Max Fisher has reactions to President Obama's speech rounded up at the Atlantic Wire, laying out what news came of the president's address to the U.N. So far, commentators are reacting to his call for help from other countries in addressing the world's problems; the applause he got on Israeli settlements (it was more than he got on Sudan); contrasts with the previous administration; his criticism of the UN.; and whether the speech was boring. Check it out at the Wire.

Sep 23 2009, 2:00PM

DeLay: GOP Is Leaderless, Health Care Will Pass

The party-discipline master formerly known as "the Hammer" predicts health reform will pass and he says his own Republican Party has no leader, is mired in infighting, and can't take advantage of President Obama's stalled popularity. Politics Daily contributor Emily Miller spoke with DeLay on the sidewalk of a strip mall where he was practicing up for his gig on Dancing with the Stars. On that lack of GOP discipline: "Republicans are leaderless...so we're just fighting each other instead of Obama's radical policies. There's no political leader of the party taking control. So, Republicans are just attacking each other for being too far right or too far left. Even Rush and Hannity are doing it."

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Sep 23 2009, 1:47PM

Obama's Secrets: A Different Standard, Or A Different Emphasis?

The Obama administration's new state secrets privilege policy makes it harder, in theory, for the Justice Department to invoke the doctrine, while leaving the privilege intact -- and, in a way, fortifying it for use in the future. So far, the loudest objection to the policy, which was announced this morning, is that the administration refuses to apply the new rules to ongoing or legacy litigation, which leaves them defending assertions of the privilege that don't meet their current standards.

According to policy analysts, the biggest change is the department's voluntary decision to adopt a "significant harm" standard for each privilege assertion. Current case law provides little guidance here, which has given implicit permission to the executive branch to invoke the privilege when the harm to national security would be only slight. In practice, if the administration sticks to its guns, the number of future cases that involve an assertion of the privilege would decline significantly.

"It's a matter of emphasis and policy means, not a fixed rule," a senior Justice Department official who drafted the policy acknowledged in an interview. The official agreed to discuss the application of the privilege and provided new details on the condition of anonymity. A White House spokesman said President Obama has reviewed and endorsed the new guidelines.

During the presidential campaign and in April of 2009, Obama said the privilege ought to be "modified."  I think it is appropriate to say that there are going to be cases in which national security interests are genuinely at stake and that you can't litigate without revealing covert activities or classified information that would genuinely compromise our safety.

But searching for ways to redact, to carve out certain cases, to see what can be done so that a judge in chambers can review information without it being in open court, you know, there should be some additional tools so that it's not such a blunt instrument.

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Sep 23 2009, 11:54AM

Obama's Speech To The U.N., Full Text

Here's President Obama's first speech to the U.N. General Assembly as president, which he made this morning in New York, declaring that the U.S. has "re-engaged the United Nations." Full transcript as released by the White House:

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Sep 23 2009, 11:18AM

From Obama, A Nuclear Resolution With Teeth?

Tomorrow, President Obama chairs a special session of the United Nations Security Council devoted to nuclear non-proliferation, a topic near and dear to his heart. For the first time since his speech in Prague this spring, Obama will address America's nuclear posture -- a topic almost as important as the words of the resolution. The resolution itself (see this draft obtained by the Politico) is a mix of standard "P-5" -- that is, permanent members of the security council, the US, China, France, Britain and Russia -- rhetoric and a rededication to nonproliferation principles that the current administration believes were abandoned by the previous administration.

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Sep 23 2009, 10:32AM

Palin: Controversial At Home, Controversial Abroad

If there's one thing we know about Sarah Palin, it's that she's not for everyone. Her average favorable/unfavorable split is currently 37.8/49.6. Hence, this bit from AFP's story on her speech in Hong Kong:
Her performance, which was closed to the media, divided opinion.

Some of those who attended praised her forthright views on government social and economic intervention and others walked out early in disgust.

"She was brilliant," said a European delegate, on condition of anonymity...

Two US delegates left early, with one saying "it was awful, we couldn't stand it any longer". He declined to be identified.

Sep 23 2009, 10:16AM

VIDEO: Palin's Closed-Door Speech In Hong Kong

Sarah Palin spoke to the CLSA Investors' Forum in Hong Kong today, and, though the event was closed to media, a snippet of video is available here, apparently taken by an attendee (quality looks sub-professional, but both image and audio are pretty good).

You can see what looks to be the beginning of her the speech, as she tells the audience she'll discuss "Main Street USA, and how perhaps my view of main street representing perhaps a lot of other people, how that affects you and your business."

The attendees interviewed later in the video, one can tell, aren't huge Palin fans, but they're respectful and appreciative of her remarks.

Sep 23 2009, 7:30AM

Security Theater In New York City

For those entranced by security theater, New York City is a sight to behold this week. A visit to one of the two centers of the action -- the Waldorf Astoria, where the presidents of China, Russia, the Prime Ministers of Israel and the Palestinian Authority, and the President of the United States -- are all staying. (Who gets the presidential suite? Our POTUS.) Getting to the Waldrof is a little intimidating, which is the point. Wade through the concrete barriers, the double-parked police cars, the NYPD mobile command post, a signals post, acreages of metal fencing, snipers, counter surveillance teams, FBI surveillance teams in street clothes, dodge traffic and a dignitary motorcade or two, and you're right at the front door of the hotel. A Secret Service agent from the Midwest gestured dismissively when a reporter showed him a press credential. "You don't need it. Just go in that door over there."

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Sep 23 2009, 6:18AM

Excerpts From Obama's Speech Today

Taking his turn before the United Nations General Assembly meeting today, President Obama will urge countries not to use America's past penchant for "acting alone in the world" as an excuse to avoid getting their hands dirty.

"Those who used to chastise America for acting alone in the world cannot now stand by and wait for America to solve the world's problems alone. We have sought - in word and deed - a new era of engagement with the world. Now is the time for all of us to take our share of responsibility for a global response to global challenges," he plans to say, in excerpts distributed by the White House.

"If we are honest with ourselves, we need to admit that we are not living up to that responsibility. Consider the course that we are on if we fail to confront the status quo. Extremists sowing terror in pockets of the world. Protracted conflicts that grind on and on. Genocide and mass atrocities. More and more nations with nuclear weapons. Melting ice caps and ravaged populations. Persistent poverty and pandemic disease. I say this not to sow fear, but to state a fact: the magnitude of our challenges has yet to be met by the measure of our action."

Sep 23 2009, 6:17AM

Question Of The Day: Would You Run If Obama Asked You Not To?

The White House has reportedly asked New York Gov. David Paterson not to run for reelection. If you were in Paterson's position as an unpopular Democratic governor, and the White House asked you not to run, what would you do?

Sep 23 2009, 6:00AM

The Rundown, 9/23

With the U.N. still convened in New York, it's still meetings galore for President Obama. Today he'll attend the session along with Hillary Clinton and meet with Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, as well as Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Discussion topics with the latter will probably include sanctions on Iran and the nuclear arms agreement being sought by December. Expect the two to slap each other on the backs with glee over Obama's decision to cancel missile-shield plans...or not.

Timothy Geithner will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on financial regulatory reform, as he is wont to do.

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Sep 22 2009, 6:00PM

The Invisible Primary, 9/22

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty announced he'll launch a PAC, which could mean a step toward a 2012 run; Haley Barbour announced he'll cut off state funding for ACORN...but ACORN no longer exists in Mississippi; and Rick Santorum's media adviser talked up his boss's presidential prospects; and author and Wall Street exec Ken Morris, who lost out in the charity eBay bidding war for a dinner with Sarah Palin, has pledged to donate $100,000 to veterans' charities if Palin will sit down with him for an on-the-record dinner instead.

Sep 22 2009, 5:39PM

PAC Wars

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty joined the PAC club today. That is, he announced he'll form a political action committee, something every other possible 2012 Republican White House candidate has besides Newt Gingrich, Bobby Jindal, and Charlie Crist. PACs raise and give money to other candidates and politicians, and, in so doing, to curry favor, court endorsements, and build up the profile of their leaders. The strength of one's PAC--the money it's able to throw around--reflects on the status of the candidate.

It also lets figures like Pawlenty raise money for a potential run. For instance, Mike Huckabee, who is out of politics at the moment, is conducting all his political activity through Huck PAC. Same goes for Sarah Palin and SarahPAC. And for Mitt Romney and his Free and Strong America PAC.

Pawlenty, who will not seek a third term in 2010, could use one. Hence, his Freedom First PAC will start raking in the cash.

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Sep 22 2009, 5:30PM

Hurtling Toward 2010, 9/22

The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:

The National Republican Congressional Committee is attacking Rep. John McHugh's (R) challenger, Bill Owens, as an "Obama Democrat"; Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) could announce this week or next whether he'll run for Senate; the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released a web ad attacking Carly Fiorina, who is expected to challenge Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), for her tenure as CEO of Hewlett-Packard; and former eBay CEO Meg Whitman formally announced her bid for governor of California.

Sep 22 2009, 4:27PM

Andrew Cuomo's Dilemma

What's a Cuomo to do? He's found himself in a remarkable position in recent weeks. The New York State Attorney General is phenomenally popular in a state where Democrats are suffering and the governor, David Paterson, has been asked not to run by the president. If someone had told you in 2006 that Eliot Spitzer would be driven from office and Cuomo would be immensely popular, it would have been hard to believe. After all, he had a messy divorce from a Kennedy, and the former Housing and Urban Development Secretary had alienated the black community by running against Carl McCall for governor in 2002, who was considered to be next in line. Cuomo doesn't want to alienate African-American voters by challenging Paterson directly. But will the president's nudge have the effect of dissuading Paterson from running or moving black support away from the state's first African-American governor? So far, Patterson is digging in his heels, but so did Jim Bunning in Kentucky, the Republican senator who was prevailed upon to drop out of his reelection bid. If Patterson's money dries up, he may not have a choice. In the meantime, Cuomo can't be seen to be gleeful. But he's in a tough position. In a blue state, he's the most popular of pols but boxed in at a time when the Dems could easily lose the governorship and the Senate seat held by Kirsten Gillibrand.

The thing to watch for is black opinion in New York. Does Obama's abandonment of the governor affect it or not? And what happens to Paterson's money? It's a bizarre situation. About the only thing weirder would be a Spitzer comeback, and is that even so impossible to imagine? Yeah, probably.

Sep 22 2009, 2:29PM

Blame The Economy For Obama's Geopolitical Ineffectiveness

The Jerusalem Post has an interesting theory on why world leaders are saying no to President Obama these days:
It's the economy, stupid.

Everyone has worked it out by now: The great secret is out. America's economy has made Obama a weak president, and he will likely remain weak throughout his first term. He has about two years to pull the American economy out of its free-fall before he begins his reelection campaign. If he can do it, and that's a big if, chances are good that he'll get reelected, and in his second term he can try to pull some geopolitical strings. But for the next three years, expect to see a world that says no to Obama. No meaningful and dramatic diplomatic initiative can come out of the White House in the next three years, as long as Obama remains weak.

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Sep 22 2009, 1:24PM

Protect Insurance Execs From Bad Rap

There's a fake PSA to "protect insurance companies" from all the mean things Democrats are saying about them up on FunnyorDie, starring Will Ferrell, Jon Hamm, Donald Faison (Turk from Scrubs), Robert Ben Grant of Reno 911, and others. According to the video, it was organized by MoveOn.org (MoveOn has yet to confirm):


However, a note of fact-checking: the claim that 80 percent of Americans support the public option, repeated both by Don Draper and Reno's Deputy Travis Junior, isn't actually true according to major polls. Public-option support is as 55 percent, according to a poll released Sept. 14 by The Washington Post and ABC, while a June 20 CBS poll placed it at 73 percent and an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll conducted by Hart/McInturff, also in June, put it at 76 percent. I'll update the post if I find out where the figure came from.

UPDATE: The 80-percent figure comes from a poll released by the Employee Benefit Research Industry on June 11. The survey actually showed 83 percent in favor of creating a public health insurance plan.

Sep 22 2009, 11:50AM

564 Amendments To Go...

The Senate Finance Committee's markup of Chairman Max Baucus's health care bill is underway, with 564 amendments on the table. Members are now making their opening statements, framing the process that generated the bill. The markup will determine, in part, whether health reform gets passed--whether the committee produces something that can pass on the Senate floor. It will take a while: the bill isn't expected to be ready for floor debate until next week. Watch at your peril at C-SPAN.org.

Sep 22 2009, 11:28AM

Glenn Beck: Hurting Conservatism?

Forget Time's cover-story question of whether Glenn Beck is hurting America: Peter Wehner of the conservative magazine Commentary says Beck is hurting the conservative movement, calling him "a roiling mix of fear, resentment, and anger--the antithesis of Ronald Reagan."

"At a time when we should aim for intellectual depth, for tough-minded and reasoned arguments, for good cheer and calm purpose, rather than erratic behavior, he is not the kind of figure conservatives should embrace or cheer on," Wehner writes.

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Sep 22 2009, 11:10AM

Obama's FDR Moment

Public support for the war in Afghanistan stands at 39%. On the right, George Will wants us out, on the left, Senator Russ Feingold. Thomas Friedman is feeling "ambivalent," and he's not alone. This weekend, President Obama remarked that, "the first question is, are we doing the right thing?"

General Stanley McChrystal submitted his sixty-six-page Commander's Initial Assessment of the war last month, after having offered a supplementary counterinsurgency guide to ISAF leaders days before that. The Obama administration is still "reviewing the document," according to The Washington Post, as though Kremlinologists are required to catch the general's nuance. At two pages a day, they should have an idea early next week. This is on top of ten months of daily intelligence briefings, and eight years of reported successes and failures. The administration is, by all appearances, stalling.

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Sep 22 2009, 9:50AM

Sneaking a Peek at the Climate Summit Playbook

Today, nearly a hundred world leaders are meeting in New York for the U.N. Climate Change Summit. Impressive though this gathering may seem--especially when placed in the fabulous PR context of Climate Week NYC, an events line-up featuring everyone from Ban Ki-Moon to Harrison Ford--it is a mere glimpse of what this December's U.N. Climate Conference in Copenhagen holds. Attendees of this conference will be charged with the grand task of hammering out a follow-up to the Kyoto Protocol, a set of binding greenhouse gas reduction targets that took force in 2005 and has been ratified by 184 countries--though conspicuously not by the U.S. or China. Riding the wake of a global economic crisis and the escalating urgency of climate change, the Copenhagen conference promises to be a high-wire act of shifting power currents and geopolitical tensions. Today's summit is, then, an opportunity for key players to feel out their competitors and lay the groundwork for effective negotiation come December.

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Sep 22 2009, 9:34AM

Obama's Letterman Moment

They joked about how cold the studio was and how Sasha and Malia, when they reached the age for dating, would be surrounded by men with guns. The political performance on a talk show, once a rarity, is now a semiregular event--although Letterman noted with bitterness that George W. Bush never came on the Late Show. Nothing Obama said was particularly new or different, but if you're not used to watching Obama at length, you had to be impressed, I think, by his sheer confidence. Television is kind to the tall and thin, and that's Obama, who exuded a quiet comfort if not the sheer enjoyment that marked some of the other famed Letterman appearances like those of Bob Dole or John McCain, who Letterman also slobbered over, as well as Al Gore who famously smashed an ashtray on the show, complete with goggles, to show the idiocy of government regulations governing such things.

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Sep 22 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: Do Media Appearances Matter?

After President Obama's five Sunday-show appearances this weekend, and his appearance on Letterman last night, we ask: How much do media appearances actually influence opinion? Do enough people notice, and does the impact last?

Sep 22 2009, 6:00AM

The Rundown, 9/22

Today will be laden with foreign policy dealings, as...

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas come to the White House for individual meetings with President Obama, then a three-way meeting after those. Settlements will be discussed far and wide.

...The U.N. Climate Change Summit gets underway in New York, with world leaders gathering to discuss plans for a treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which the U.S. never ratified anyway. President Obama will speak.

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Sep 21 2009, 6:15PM

The Invisible Primary, 9/21

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Sarah Palin will address the CLSA Investors' Forum in Hong Kong on Wednesday, and the event will be closed to press; a fan paid $63,500 for a dinner with Palin; 50 percent of Minnesotans think Tim Pawlenty has a good shot at winning the GOP nomination in 2012, according to Rasmussen; Mike Huckabee won the straw poll at the Values Voter summit this weekend in Washington, DC.; and New Gingrich called concerns over high health care costs "arbitrary."

Sep 21 2009, 5:45PM

Hurtling Toward 2010, 9/21

The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:

Virginia gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds (D) is ramping up his attack on opponent Bob McConnell for his graduate thesis in a new TV ad; in a possibly very awkward moment, New York Gov. David Paterson (D) greeted President Obama today when he landed in New York for a speech on education, after reports that the White House is pressuring Paterson not to seek reelection; Ben Smith reports Obama avoided contact with Paterson while observing a community college class; Tim Griffin , an ally of Karl Rove and a former U.S. attorney under the Bush administration, will challenge Rep. Vic Snyder (D-AR); and a rumor is floating that Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) will resign her seat before the end of the year before she challenges Gov. Rick Perry in the 2010 gubernatorial primary (H/T Swing State Project).

Sep 21 2009, 4:40PM

Bill O'Reilly: Poster Boy For The Public Option

Since Bill O'Reilly said last week that he wants working Americans to have the option of a government-created health insurance policy, he's popped up on various liberal blogs and press releases, including one sent out by the Democratic National Committee. Today, he makes a cameo in a web video produced by liberal activist group Americans United for Change.

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Sep 21 2009, 4:10PM

Boxed Into A Corner On Afghanistan, The President Resists

As he made the rounds of the Sunday talk shows, President Obama made one thing clear when asked about whether he'd send more troops to Afghanistan: the question was moot because Gen. Stanley McChrystal, his top commander in Afghanistan, hadn't yet asked requested any more troops.

But in McChrystal's confidential assessment, which was leaked to the Washington Post this weekend, the general makes clear his intention: "Broadly speaking, we require more Civilian and military resources, more ANSF, and more ISR and other enablers."

In plain language, that sounds like a request for more troops.

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Sep 21 2009, 3:35PM

Palin Can't Hide

You're probably going to hear what Sarah Palin has to say behind closed doors in China this week.

The ex-governor of Alaska is slated to give a speech to a prominent investors club in Hong Kong on Wednesday and is catching grief for barring press coverage of the address. You can safely bet that some or all of Palin's speech will almost surely be revealed by someone's cell phone or digital recorder. Palin is too big, too controversial a figure to have her speech hidden.

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Sep 21 2009, 2:58PM

Change We Can Believe In

From The Huffington Post's compilation, posted today, of the funniest protest signs of 2009:

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Sep 21 2009, 2:01PM

Why Was McChrystal's Report Leaked?

Joe Klein wonders why Gen. Stanley McChrystal's confidential report on Afghanistan to Defense Secretary Robert Gates--in which he states that not sending more troops "will likely result in failure"--got leaked to The Washington Post's Bob Woodward. While everyone expected to get some sort of picture of McChrystal's Afghanistan outlook, Klein surmises:
What's provocative about the report is that it was leaked to Woodward--a serious breach of conduct by someone, possibly in the military (or a supporter the military's position). This was an effort to lobby a quick decision on troop strength--which the military wants, so that it can begin planning the 2010 fighting season in Afghanistan. But a quick decision is not a good idea right now.

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Sep 21 2009, 11:34AM

Are Americans More Laissez-Faire, After The Meltdown?

That's what a new Gallup survey suggests, finding that 45 percent of Americans, the highest reading in a decade, said there is too much "regulation of business and industry" when the polling agency asked them earlier this month, vs. 24 percent who say there's too little and 27 percent who say we have the right amount.

People also think the government is "trying to do too many things" these days, Gallup reports, as 57 percent, also the highest reading in a decade. Lest we take the latter nugget as a referendum on President Obama's domestic agenda and, in particular, health care reform--where polling suggests most people support the public option, the most aggressive proposal for government involvement currently on the table--let's remember that two things are prominently associated with government activity: the health care debate and financial bailouts. Those who oppose financial bailouts and those who oppose health reform have common ground on this question.

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Sep 21 2009, 10:41AM

Cyber Security: Einstein And The Privacy Debate

Within the next two weeks, as National Cyber Security Awareness Month begins, the White House is finally expected to name its executive cyber security coordinator, and former assistant secretary of defense Frank Kramer is the leading candidate. One of Kramer's selling points is that he sees a public debate about cyber security as urgent and necessary. The communications challenge he faces is, in some ways, the same old story: when it comes to homeland security, we do a poor job of estimating risk. Where DHS spent $50 billion since its inception on Project BioShield, which stockpiles medicines in the event of an improbably widespread biological terrorism event, it has spent about $80 million on cyber security, even though cyber security breaches happen regularly, and are regularly damaging. It's a fairly large miscalculation, one that has shaped policy and the public's response to it. Since the beginning of the administration, there have been more than 100 confirmed cyber attacks on major American corporate and government interests.

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Sep 21 2009, 9:45AM

Another Justification For Holder's Torture Re-Examination

One of the main lines of argument cited by the seven former CIA directors in urging President Obama to reverse his attorney general's decision to review CIA interrogations is that career lawyers at the Department of Justice had already reviewed those same files.

Career prosecutors under the supervision of the US Attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia determined that one prosecution (of a CIA contractor) was warranted. A conviction was later obtained. They determined that prosecutions were not warranted in the other cases.

Attorney General Holder's decision to re-open the criminal investigation creates an atmosphere of continuous jeopardy for those whose cases the Department of Justice had previously declined to prosecute

If criminal investigations closed by career prosecutors during one administration can so easily be reopened at the direction of political appointees in the next, declinations of prosecution will be rendered meaningless
But the Justice Department's response to these claims contains a buried piece of information: "Given the recommendation from the Office of Professional Responsibility as well as other available information, he believed the appropriate course of action was to ask John Durham to conduct a preliminary review..."

For the uninitiated, this means that the preliminary report sent to Holder by the Office of Professional Responsibility on the torture-related lawyering of the Bush-era DOJ political appointees  -- a report prepared by career prosecutors --  recommended that the cases deemed closed during the Bush administration be re-examined.

Holder is following the advice of his in-house 'internal affairs' shop... and didn't simply make the decision after reviewing the files himself.

Sep 21 2009, 8:51AM

Where's the Anger?

There's a smart piece in The Washington Post this morning about the effort in Congress to contain some of the more outlandish banking fees being imposed on customers. In particular, overdraft fees, which everyone knows to be high, are targeted. In this case, these are fees banks impose after all but encouraging people to overspend and not telling them that they're overdrawn. It's amazing that we've gotten to this point--trillions in bailouts, an economic collapse brought about in no small measure because of the irresponsible behavior of banks, and this is the kind of de minimus regulation that's being considered? I'm sure there's still a populist streak in American life although it seems most animated when it comes to Obama's birth certificate or hatred of Dick Cheney. But in terms of sustained anger and the actors who helped create and perpetuate the crisis that we find ourselves in, it seems sorely lacking. Have there been any protests on the Washington mall about bank lending practices from housing to student loans? Is anybody proposing a boycott of, say, Bank of America?

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Sep 21 2009, 8:46AM

Monday Morning Quarterback: Net Neutrality

Item: Climate Change the focus at UNGA meetings

QB: US and China are trying to outdistance each other, with China calling for a 1% of GDP expenditure on clean energy, and the US announcing voluntary steps. Both both countries realize that the other faces serious internal obstacles to changing policy anytime soon. In the US, that obstacle is "the United States Senate."

Item: George Packer tours AfPak with Richard Holbrooke.

QB:  There are hints that the US wants to use Kashmir as leverage to reduce Pakistan's cooperation with the Taliban.

Item: Creigh Deeds gains in new WashPost poll of Virginia gubernatorial race.

QB: Still, more voters than not say they want a new (i.e, not-Democratic) direction from state government. Deeds still faces an ill-wind, despite all the help the Post is giving him.

Item: More drip-drip from Matt Latimer's days as a White House speechwriter.

QB: Including: Bush on whether to include an anti-gay marriage line in a speech: "I'm not going to tell some gay kid in the audience he can't get married."

Item: DailyKos polls four key Blue Dog districts: AR-04, GA-12, MI-01 and TX-28

QB: Support for a "public option," fairly neutrally described, outpaces support for Barack Obama in those districts.

Item: In speech today, FCC chairman Julius Genachowski announces plans to codify "net neutrality."

QB: He'll propose rules making it illegal for access providers to limit access to others' sites or apps. But there will be some wiggle room for network management. As always, wait for the rule itself before reacting.


Sep 21 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: When Will Conservative Energy Fade?

Conservatives have been energized all summer in protesting President Obama, his health care reform effort, and the rest of his agenda. When will the energy fade?

Sep 20 2009, 4:39PM

The Sunday Shows In Five Sentences Or Less

1. ObamaObamObamaObamaObama. NoObama on Fox.

2. On ABC, Obama said he disagreed that elements of the Baucus plan were tantamount to a massive tax increase on the middle class: "I don't agree. I think what they were referring to, and I haven't looked at the quotes, but I think they were concerned about whether or not this was actually affordable.  On whether a mandate is equivalent to a tax increase: "What I've said is that if you can't afford health insurance, you certainly shouldn't be punished for that...For us to say that you've got to take a responsibility to get health insurance is absolutely not a tax increase. What it's saying is, that we're not going to have other people carrying your burdens for you anymore."

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