Politics with Marc Ambinder

October 4, 2009 - October 10, 2009 Archives

Oct 10 2009, 8:00AM

Question Of The Weekend: If Not Obama, Who?

If you think Obama's Nobel Prize was a bit of a reach, who do you think should have gotten it? And if you think he deserved it, who, in your mind, was second?

Oct 9 2009, 4:25PM

Kings Of The Twittersphere

Political types like to tweet. Just as for everyone else, it borders somewhere between fun, addiction, and self-promotion, and we know that it routinely leads to news--from Newt Gingrich tweeting that Sonia Sotomayor is a racist to Republicans tweeting from the House floor during the energy debate last year.

But how do all these political personalities interact? Do they tweet only to make news, or do they actually follow each other? Who's the most popular?

Earlier this week, the social-media analyzers at Sysomos broke down the top 168 political Twitterers, and who among them follow/are followed the most.

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Oct 9 2009, 3:38PM

Divide On Obama's Policies, But Look Beyond Race

Unless you're prepared to do some serious regression analysis, it's hard to isolate race as a variable in any construct. For example: a new Allstate/National Journal poll out today finds a stark racial divide on the question of whether President Obama's policies are providing more opportunity "for people like you to get ahead." Only 31% of whites say yes; more than 75% of blacks say yes. 52% of Hispanics say yes; 70% of Democrats say yes; 10 % of Republicans say yes; independents are split down the middle -- a third say the policies won't change the level of opportunity they're afforded, 34% say "yes" and 30% say "no."

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Oct 9 2009, 2:11PM

Limbaugh: Lord, Thank You For My Enemies

NBC's Today show is running an interview with Rush Limbaugh Monday morning, but they've released some very brief snippets Friday afternoon. In them, Limbaugh says he's not interested in being the leader of the Republican Party and confirms what everyone could already see: being targeted by Democrats--who made him the focal point of their messaging efforts for a few months earlier this year--has been good for business, boosting his popularity.

"I am not the leader of the Republican Party. Don't want to be the leader of the Republican Party...It's silly for them to keep talking about how I'm the leader of anything--it's just creating more curiosity about me," Limbaugh says. "21 years, more puopular than ever? Lord, thank you for my enemies." (video after the jump)

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Oct 9 2009, 12:52PM

The GOP Speaks

Not the GOP that you're used to hearing--the Beltway GOP led by Michael Steele, Congressional leadership, and the top 2012 contenders--but the GOP that lives out in the rest of America: the state and local leaders that make up the Republican Party across the U.S.

In an attempt to get past the top-level messaging of DC-based party operatives, Conor Friedersdorf of The American Scene has been emailing a questionnaire to those who hold official rank as state GOP chairs, county GOP chairs, county vice-chairs, and members of county executive committees. He's posting the responses he gets, verbatim, at a new blog that's been aptly named The GOP Speaks.

Call it a pointillist pulse of the greater GOP.

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Oct 9 2009, 12:42PM

What the Next Stimulus Could Look Like

As health care reform moves from historic longshot to fait accompli, Democrats can feel the next crisis percolating: It's the jobs, stupid. Unemployment is going to hit 10 percent, and it's going to stay there for a while. Nobody questions this inevitability, they can only wonder (1) how high over 10 percent it's going to get and (2) how long it will stick around double digits. With the 2010 election-cum-referendum on the Obama administration now about 380 days away, what are they doing to help the job market? Let's count possibilities:

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Oct 9 2009, 11:40AM

His Elegant Remarks

I've laughed at the jokes this morning: This is what he gets for bombing the moon? Is he going to give the money to ACORN? Next year, Physics Nobel. And I was pretty stunned that he won. But I stick with original assessment that this is good for the president and that the right will look stupid if they keep slamming him. The ungracious condemnation from RNC Chairman Michael Steele contrasted with the gracious remarks of Tim Pawlenty and other Republicans. The president's remarks in the Rose Garden using the word "humbled" and recasting the award as "a call to action" instead of a reward for achievements put him in a good place. Elites may fret and wring their hands, but this can't hurt a president. It won't bring peace to Afghanistan or ease tensions with Iran or North Korea. But it gives Obama a boost at home and abroad that any president should savor. Andrew Sullivan makes a nice case for the award here.

Oct 9 2009, 11:34AM

Too Much Information, Not Enough Common Sense

A new Oklahoma law will require the details of every abortion to be posted on a public website.
Mothers -- or would-be mothers, rather -- will be prompted to answer 37 questions that range from her marital status and race to how many times she's ever been pregnant. One question asks for the woman's reason to abort, offering "relationship problems" as a possible check-off box, and it's difficult to ignore the judgmental and disapproving tone.

The website, which will cost $200,000 per year to implement, is intended to prevent or decrease the number of abortions in Oklahoma, but the bill has already raised considerable debate, attracting opposition from the Center For Reproductive Rights and former Oklahoma Representative Wanda Jo Stapleton, among others. This questionnaire not only forces doctors into an uncomfortable predicament -- failure to disclose this information would result in "criminal sanctions and loss of medical license," as Salon's Lynn Harris reports -- but, put simply, it shames women. "They're really just trying to frighten women out of having abortions," Kery Parks, director of external affairs at Planned Parenthood of Central Oklahoma, told Harris. Indeed, in a small town, probing details would easily identify the woman with a proverbial scarlet A.

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Oct 9 2009, 9:45AM

Don't Overlook The Nuke Factor

The Nobel committee's citation includes a prominent mention of President Obama's endorsement of "global zero," the worldwide effort to dismantle the world's nuclear arsenal. This should give those who want to change America's nuclear strategy a boost in the arm...

The vision of a world free from nuclear arms has powerfully stimulated disarmament and arms control negotiations

Oct 9 2009, 9:08AM

But Should He Turn It Down?

At Slate, John Dickerson writes that the Nobel committee shouldn't have awarded the prize to Obama, and Mickey Kaus urges Obama to turn it down. Kaus's reasoning is politics: Obama's narcissism problem -- Kaus's bolds -- will be exacerbated. 

This tracks with one argument I'm hearing and reading from Democrats and others who are skeptical of the prize: it will turn the volume and enthusiasm level all the way to the extreme end of the dial for conservatives -- overmodulating at 110%; the resulting hyperpolarization will hurt Obama's agenda. (Representative of this opinion: "I think it will feed not just conservative dislike but the growing concern of independents and elites, that he is a man of rhetoric, a work of imagination, but as of now an unaccomplished statesman. The smartest thing he could do is turn it down. It will backfire on him.'")

Another objection -- one that I'm hearing from smart folks from all ideological corners -- is less about politics and more about the prize: there are hundreds of human rights activists -- thousands -- who are more deserving the prize. It isn't just the prize of Arafat and Carter. Its the prize of Sakharov and Walesa, Martin Luther King, Jr. and Ang San Suu Kyi and Shirin Ebadi -- people who risked their very lives for the sake of human dignity. A third objection -- mostly from some liberals -- is that Obama, on executive power, on transparency, on state secrets, is just like President Bush, and so an award that rewards him, or the country, for sin expiation is premature, at best, and moronic, at worst.

On the other hand, turning it down, even meant as gesture of humility, will not be interpreted as humility. Obama will probably say that he hopes that America lives up to the promise of the word.

Oct 9 2009, 8:54AM

The Promise (And Pitfalls?) Of Obama's Nobel Surprise

The political world awoke this morning to a collective, confused "What the..."  Bottom line: the pressure on President Obama to Get Things Done has just been ratcheted up by several orders of magnitude.

Let's stipulate that the response from political conservatives in America is going to be predictable and uninteresting. (The Swedes have a habit of awarding the prize to Democrats that most provoke the ire of conservative partisans. And to Yasser Arafat.)

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Oct 9 2009, 8:16AM

Obama Wins Nobel Peace Prize. What Now?

Will it matter at home? The stunning news that Barack Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize is bound to enhance his global reputation, but will it give him more juice domestically? I don't claim to know the answer but a few thoughts:

It Can't Hurt.
By the end of the day, I'm sure Limbaugh and Hannity and the right chorus will have made fun of Obama for the win, cited it as proof of his European Socialist tendencies. But are many Americans going to feel offended that he's in the company of Teddy Roosevelt, who won for negotiating the end to the Sino-Russian conflict in 1905? Would any American feel embarrassed? Not really. By the way, doesn't this guarantee the president's third trip to Scandinavia, and a redemptive one? He went for the humiliating experience of lobbying for Chicago for the 2016 Olympics. I bet he goes back for the big climate summit in Copenhagen. Now he has to go and accept the prize. Kind of puts the Chicago episode in perspective.

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Oct 9 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: Pick An All-Star Fundraiser

If you're a congressional candidate, who do you most want to come to the district and raise money for you? Both parties are included, so Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, President Obama, Sarah Palin and all the 2012 hopefuls are options.

Oct 9 2009, 6:00AM

The Rundown, 10/9

President Obama will again meet with his national security team to talk about--you guessed it--Afghanistan and Pakistan. They've been getting together a lot these days, with the big decision looming over the president's head of whether or not to send the 40,000 more troops Gen. Stanley McChrystal has asked for; they'll discuss again today.

Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, is out of the country. She'll be on a trip from today until the 15th, wherein she'll visit sunny London, tropical Dublin, luxurious Belfast, and idyllic Moscow.

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Oct 8 2009, 6:00PM

The Invisible Primary, 10/9

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Bobby Jindal will travel to Texas to raise money for his 2011 gubernatorial reelection campaign; Alaska Democrats are following up on an unfulfilled public-records request for Sarah Palin's emails as governor; in 2012 non-news, Levi Johnston will pose for Playgirl; in slightly more substantial news, Tina Fey says she'll probably play Sarah Palin again; Mitt Romney took a swipe at cap-and-trade; Eric Cantor disputed the CBO's assessment that Max Baucus's health reform bill would save the government $81 billion over 10 years; he penned an op-ed for Politico on Afghanistan; and Tim Pawlenty may have been the Iowa GOP's second choice for the event he'll headline in November.

Oct 8 2009, 5:35PM

Hurtling Toward 2010, 10/8

The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:

A Washington Post poll has Bob McDonnell widening his lead in Virginia's 2009 gubernatorial race; Republican Kelly Ayotte is outraising Rep. Paul Hodes (D) in New Hampshire's Senate race; Gov. Charlie Crist (R) reported $2.4 million raised in the last three months in his Senate bid; Bill Clinton called New York's 23rd district race a "referendum" on President Obama's agenda in a fundraising email for Demcorat Bill Owens; Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY) could be in some trouble as the House ethics panel voted to expand its investigation of him; a new Field poll shows Democrat Jerry Brown crushing the opposition in California's gubernatorial race; Rasmussen has Sen. David Vitter (R) leading Rep. Charles Melancon (D) by 10 points in his Senate reelection race; and two new polls show a tightening race between Gov. Jon Corzine (D) and Chris Christie (R) in New Jersey's 2009 gubernatorial contest.

Oct 8 2009, 5:06PM

Bill Clinton: End The Cuba Embargo

I've written in the past about the idiocy of our embargo with Cuba. This isn't a novel or brave position, but it is, unfortunately, still American policy even if Barack Obama hinted at a thaw during the presidential campaign. His proposals would only have taken us back to the still-draconian restrictions of the 1990s, but that was better than nothing. Over at The Washington Note, Steve Clemons reminds us today that Ronald Reagan's Secretary of State George Shultz opposes the ban and in The Clinton Tapes, Bill Clinton tells Taylor Branch that the embargo is misguided and ineffective. I know the president has much on his mind, but hopefully the political space is there to end the embargo sooner than later. Pitch it as an economic stimulus package for Florida? Florida's Cuban community has seen a seismic shift on the issue. It doesn't help that Raul Castro hasn't made things easier for Obama to lift it, but lift it we should.

Oct 8 2009, 4:35PM

Committee Votes, Narrowly, To Extend PATRIOT Act Provisions

The Senate Judiciary Committee today narrowly passed a measure to extend three provisions of the PATRIOT Act set to expire in December. 11 senators (nine Democrats and two Republicans) voted "yes"; eight (three Democrats and five Republicans) voted "no."

The bill will have to be approved by both the Senate and House, and today's narrow margin foreshadowed what could be a tough fight on the floor of both chambers, particularly if the bill is subject to amendments.

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Oct 8 2009, 4:19PM

Trying To Pacify The uGov Community

Here's an e-mail, sent today to intelligence community employees, from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence addressing concerns about the closure of the uGov unclassified e-mail domain. The message: there's nothing to see here.

The Intelligence Community (IC) Chief Information Officer (CIO) is
committed to providing protected, unclassified web capabilities that
support integration and collaboration among the IC and its partner
organizations. The IC CIO examined existing and planned capabilities
currently in use by a limited number of personnel and the resources
required to upgrade and increase the security of our operations.

As a result, a decision was made to gradually phase out ugov
unclassified email and implement web-based email within the IC
networks.  ODNI will migrate ugov email customers to alternate
unclassified web-based email services.  This transition will not
affect access to collaboration services, such as instant messaging,
search and discovery, wikis, blogs, document management services,
Intellipedia, iVideo and Gallery, currently offered by the ODNI.

The IC CIO is focused on providing collaborative services as an
integral part of the enterprise offering. The ODNI remains committed
to investing in and providing high-quality enterprise services for the
Intelligence Community.

Oct 8 2009, 4:13PM

Rep. Charlie Rangel? Yep, He's Got Some Trouble.

The House ethics committee voted unanimously to expand its investigation into whether Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY), the chief taxwriter, deliberately failed to pay taxes on rental property, according to a paper statement. The committee says it's interviewed 34 witnesses and reviewed several thousand documents and held 35 investigative subcommittee meetings. This is a LOT of work. It suggests that the probe is big.  Predictably,  Republicans jumped on the news. The minority leader, Rep. John Boehner, asked: "What More Has to Happen Before Speaker Pelosi Does the Right Thing?  The right thing, being -- asking Rangel to step down from his post as chairman of the Ways and Means Committee.  So far, the leadership is standing by Rangel, hoping that the investigation will exonerate him -- and is reluctant to catalyze dissension in the ranks -- something that Rangel's ouster would certainly cause. Plus, Speaker Nancy Pelosi doesn't seem comfortable with the idea of giving the Ways and Means gavel to fellow Californian Pete Stark, who has a bit of an independent streak.)

Oct 8 2009, 1:14PM

Clinton To Speak To Supporters

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will reconnoiter with some of her followers at a fundraising luncheon/policy converence in Washington, DC Nov. 6. Clinton will speak as part of a broader program that includes talks from Rep. Barney Frank (a Clinton backer during the '08 campaign) and Nancy Ann DeParle, the White House's Office of Health Reform chief who also worked on Clinton's 1994 reform push as health director at the Office of Management and Budget.  (DeParle's office says she's not speaking.)

The event is being put on by NoLimits.org, a non-political 501(c)(3) organization that was founded in January by Clinton's backers, after she was confirmed as Secretary of State. It is headed by former senior Clinton campaign adviser Ann Lewis, and it retains Clinton's sizable campaign e-mail list.

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Oct 8 2009, 11:50AM

Conservative Talking Points, On Your iPhone

Say you're discussing the merits of health care policy with a conservative friend, and he pulls out his iPhone and starts thumbing around on it. He's not even paying attention to me, you think, when he looks up, eyes blazing, and fires off some fresh conservative rhetoric.

Your friend has probably purchased the Conservative Talking Points iPhone app, approved by Apple for sale and now available for $1.99 at the app store. It provides users with 250 talking points on everything from "America - The Greatest Nation Ever" to "Out of Control Spending" to ACORN to "Private Industries Taken Over (See Fascism in America)."

"Be armed with the Conservative Talking Points (CTP) iPhone App as your powerful arsenal to debate those emotional and ill-prepared liberals," it advertises in the pre-purchase info provided at the app store. It should make a nice pairing with the Glenn Beck Station Locator app, for anyone who needs to find Glenn Beck on the radio with haste.

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Oct 8 2009, 10:58AM

Corzine's Big, Fat Mistake? Blame Voters, Too.

David Kessler, the former FDA commissioner and anti-obesity activist, calls a new advertisement by Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) "cruel and intolerant." The ad describes how Republican Chris Christie, who is overweight, "threw his weight around" to get out of getting a ticket. (The New York Times finds this as "subtle as a playground taunt.")   Apparently, voters, asked to describe what word comes to mind when they think of Christie, are more likely to say "fat" than any other adjective. Perhaps Corzine's specific ad mentioning "weight" -- called "if" -- is to be blamed.  But watch the ad for yourself before you arrive at that conclusion.




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Oct 8 2009, 10:56AM

The Atlantic's Boldest: Dept. Of Corrections

1. In a Wednesday post, I attributed an investigation about contractors in Afghanistan to CREW, instead to the Project On Government Oversight.

2. In the same post, I incorrectly stated that Media Matters for America, the liberal media watchdog group, has more employees today than it did during 2008.  It has fewer.

3. And apparently, I've regularly, and repeatedly, misused the word "tranche," as a helpful reader points out:

I guess more specifically it's been interesting to see this word gain currency in the last year since it started popping up in market obituaries and finger-pointing....and to see it slowly evolve from meaning a particular type of slice to the idea of a slice generically.  what's beautiful about the word isn't that it means just part of a whole, but that it means a customized selection of of a whole that is already conceptually a composite.  a tranche is a portion of a pool. (in some corners of finance, for example, a tranche is a slice of an index, an index itself already being an assembled collection of equities).

Oct 8 2009, 10:24AM

Romney Takes A Swipe At Cap-And-Trade

Mitt Romney took a shot at the Democrats' climate bill today in a web video launched by his Free and Strong America PAC, Romney's political fundraising and action group.

"President Obama has asked Congress to pass a cap and trade program. It would have a devastating impact on the families of America and on the economy," Romney says.

Cap-and-trade--the emissions regulation scheme under which greenhouse gas emissions would be capped, but emitters would be allowed to trade or purchase credits to emit more--has stalled in the Senate after the House narrowly passed it (on a 219-212 vote) in June. It's one of Obama's three major domestic policy priorities, along with health care and education, and it has received a split reaction in the business community, as Apple recently resigned from the Chamber of Commerce, and Nike resigned from the Chamber's board, over the Chamber's opposition to Democratic plans.

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Oct 8 2009, 10:20AM

CBO Report Reveals an Un-Radical Health Care Bill

When the souffle cools and health care reform is a signed law whose success will be determined by reality rather than the CBO and judged by historians rather than bloggers, I think one thing that will come into focus is how fundamentally unrevolutionary the bill is. The standard Republican attack is that Democratic health reform is radical, that it "dismantles" the health care system, and that it represents the training wheels on the bicycle of socialism. It's just not so.

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Oct 8 2009, 9:53AM

15,000 Affected By Intelligence Community Server Shutdown

The impending shut-down of the unclassified uGov e-mail domain affects more than 15,000 members of the U.S. intelligence community -- not hundreds, as I wrote yesterday, and replacing it with a similar, more secure system will be difficult, according to senior intelligence officials, given how thousands of intelligence agency employees have come to rely on it for their daily work. Another official with direct knowledge of the decision said that, until reporters and agency employees began to ask about uGov, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) did not intend to say when -- or whether -- the system would be replaced after it first announced the termination.

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Oct 8 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: A Health Care Victory?

If Max Baucus's health care bill passes, will it be a victory for President Obama? Or will it be viewed as a compromise in which the president's priorities were defeated?

Oct 8 2009, 6:00AM

The Rundown, 10/8

It's a big day for the Senate Judiciary Committee, which will not only hold a markup of the Free Flow of Information Act, aka the media shield bill--the legislation, beloved in all corners of the news media, that protects journalists from having to reveal their sources in court--it will also hold its anticipated markup of the PATRIOT Act. They'll examine the three sections that are set to expire, which deal with rules for electronic surveillance and obtaining documents.

Privacy and civil liberties will likely be focal points of the debate (as they are wont to be in national security matters these days), as Chairman Patrick Leahy has thrown in some more court scrutiny for good measure.

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Oct 7 2009, 5:45PM

The Invisible Primary, 10/7

Tracking the GOP race to 2012:

Tim Pawlenty will get some prime face time with the Iowa GOP when he headlines an event in Des Moines in November; Newt Gingrich said that a victory of Obama's values "would mean the end of American civilization as we know it"; Sarah Palin weighed in on Afghanistan on Facebook; and Canadian David Morrill is reportedly trying again to sell his Palin-autographed X-Box on eBay.

Oct 7 2009, 5:25PM

Hurtling Toward 2010, 10/7

The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:

Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) polls ahead of Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) 48-39 in the state's Senate election, according to the Wisconsin Research Institute; Pennsylvania Senate hopeful Pat Toomey (R) raised $1.5 million in the last quarter; President Obama will try to work his fundraising magic for Democrat Bill Owens Nov. 20 in New York's competitive 23rd district race; and NBC's FirstRead suggests Beau Biden is getting cold feet, and possibly won't run for Senate in Delaware after all.

Oct 7 2009, 4:34PM

The Baucus Bill Cuts The Deficit

That loud sound you heard just a moment ago from Capitol Hill was the collective exhale of Democrats: Sen. Max Baucus's Finance Committee health care proposal won't add to the deficit over 10 years, according to the magical Congressional Budget Office. Read their score summary here: Baucus.pdf. In fact, it would reduce deficit projections by $81 billion, costing a total of $829 billion. The bill wouldn't achieve universal coverage -- excluding illegal immigrants, it would leave about 16 million non-elderly Americans without health insurance.

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Oct 7 2009, 4:06PM

Pelosi Open to a Value-Added Tax

Here's something you don't have a chance to say every day: Nancy Pelosi and Alan Greenspan agree! They both think a value-added tax -- which is basically a tax on consumption -- is worth a good look to increase government revenues. On Monday, I considered a consumption tax to be a huge political challenge, despite Greenspan's support, but maybe a small VAT has a chance in Congress after all.

Here's the Pelosi exchange on the Charlie Rose show:

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Oct 7 2009, 2:45PM

Oh, Andrew: A Response To The McCaughey History

I love my former boss and current colleague, Andrew Sullivan. But I think he makes a mistake today in his otherwise thoughtful account of his publishing Betsy McCaughey's 1994 piece on the Clinton health plan. He concludes the piece by saying: "There's one reason the Clinton healthcare bill failed and it isn't Betsy McCaughey. It's Hillary Clinton." But this is reductionist in the extreme. Clinton made mistakes as she's admitted. But the difficulty that President Obama is having passing health care reform under easier circumstances--a bigger Democratic majority, more frustration with the current system--shows that there's a reason presidents since Truman have been taking a shot at this and none has quite managed. One is the sheer size of the undertaking, and second, and more important, is the sheer tenacity of the opposition. Obama's done the opposite of Clinton. Instead of devising a bill in relative secrecy, albeit with consultation from Congress and interested parties, he let Congress figure it out. Instead of specifics, he offered broad principles. Nothing wrong with that. But the end result is that Obama is still fighting for his bill despite having 60--count 'em--Democratic senators and the House that Rahm and Pelosi built. It's tough. Hillary Clinton made plenty of mistakes, and you could argue she deserves the lion's share of blame for the '94 debacle. But to not mention the American Medical Association, Bill Kristol, Bob Dole, Newt Gingrich, Harry and Louise and all the other opposition to the plan is kind of myopic for someone with such good vision.

Oct 7 2009, 2:00PM

Why The White House Remains Skeptical Of A New Troop Surge

President Obama doesn't react well to ultimatums, but the interagency process he is using to review the new policy doesn't foreclose on the possibility that Gen. Stanley McChrystal will get exactly what he wants.

But the easiest way to understand the divide between McChrystal and the White House staff -- and it really is, at this point, between him and the staff, not between him and Obama -- is to look at the way the debate has been framed: for McChrystal, Afghanistan will dodder into chaos unless 40,000 more troops are in place within 10 months. For the White House, defeating the Al Qaeda ideology worldwide, with development, peacemaking and diplomacy -- delegitimizing it -- is just as important. There's a sense that the COIN (counter-insurgency) strategy cannot succeed unless the U.S. somehow interposes itself between Pakistan and Afghanistan and keeps Pakistani Pashtuns from intermingling. The supply of new fighters is outpacing the capacity to kill them -- and that might be true, even with 40,000 more troops -- assuming that 40,000 more troops can be mobilized and sent into battle within 10 months -- and assuming that, somehow, a large portion of the troop tranche will dedicate their time to training an Afghan army.

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Oct 7 2009, 1:40PM

The Campaign Effect: The Catalist Evidence

Do campaigns matter? That debate among political scientists is largely solved. The answer is: "yes." But how and when they matter remains a subject of much academic research -- research which campaign professionals often don't know about, and research about which journalists never seem to write.

John Sides, a political scientist at George Washington University, notes the parallels between the Catalist findings I wrote about earlier and the latest social science. Most importantly: voter mobilization efforts -- telephone calls, door knocks, and literature -- work better on voters with a moderate propensity to vote than they do among voters with very high or very low propensities to vote. The reasons seem intuitive, but campaigns tend not to realize that the bulk of evidence supports this theory.

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Oct 7 2009, 1:06PM

Pay Attention To Burma

The United States' recent decision to pursue a different tack with Burma has been cited by reports to be the reason for the unusual Chinese rebuke of the Burmese over a recent border spat. According to a recent Inter Press Agency article, the recent Chinese-Burmese border bust up may have been compounded by Chinese concerns over its long-time client state's future relations with the U.S.

Some background: This latest Chinese rebuke comes as the United States has moved rather aggressively in courting Burma in the last few weeks. Following Senator Jim Webb's trip to Burma in August, the U.S has announced a shift in its Burma policy, announcing its plan for engagement with the junta's reclusive leaders must be part of a "sustained process of interaction." This move, which has been strongly supported by Burmese opposition, has been quickly followed by a meeting between Kurt Campbell, assistant U.S. secretary of state for Asia, and Burmese health minister U Thaung on the margins of the UN General Assembly last Tuesday. These are the first such high-level talks in more than a decade.

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Oct 7 2009, 12:53PM

Waiting For The Numbers

The Congressional Budget Office is supposed to come out with its scoring today of the Senate Finance Committee's health care measure. If it doesn't say the bill is deficit neutral, then the chairman, Max Baucus, and the White House have a big problem. Some conservative Dems could be all aflutter and this morning on Fox News, Charles Grassley, the ranking Republican on the committee, talked about starting all over again. I doubt that, but this is one of those moments worth paying attention to. Of course, scoring is an inexact science at best. No one can ever foresee how much a program will cost, especially when it's a new entitlement. But this is the best we've got, and that's what Congress will work with.

Oct 7 2009, 11:53AM

Independents Prefer GOP For Midterms

Another nugget of polling data from Gallup's latest survey: independent voters now prefer the GOP to the Democratic Party, according to the new numbers. Independents helped President Obama take the White House last year, voting for him 52-44 over John McCain according to CNN's exit polls, and Gallup gave Democrats the edge with independents in generic congressional balloting 46-39 just before they went to the ballots in '08. Now, when it comes to 2010 congressional races, Gallup says Republicans hold a 45-36 edge--quite a swing from last year:
gallup independents.gif

Oct 7 2009, 11:42AM

2010: It's Close

Democrats and Republicans are neck-and-neck in generic balloting for the 2010 elections, a sign that all the prognostications of a tough midterm battle are correct.

Democrats retain a 46 percent to 44 percent lead over the GOP among registered voters, when asked which party they'll vote for in the 2010 congressional races, according to a new survey from Gallup. That's closer than it's been, for the most part, since Democrats took control of Congress in 2006, except for moments of party parity in late 2006 and just after the Republican National Convention in September '08.

But Gallup actually predicts that, if the elections were held today, Republicans would come out on top--something House Minority Whip Eric Cantor predicted not too long ago.

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Oct 7 2009, 10:36AM

Pawlenty To Iowa

First not running for reelection, then forming a PAC, and now a trip to Iowa.

The Iowa Republican Party announced this morning that Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) will headline Leadership for Iowa, which the state party describes as its "signature fall event," on Saturday, November 7 at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines.

This, of course, doesn't mean he's running for president. But, of all the possible GOP candidates, Pawlenty has perhaps taken the most aggressive steps toward a bid. The one thing missing from his portfolio was a trip to Iowa or New Hampshire, and now he'll be making one.

Oct 7 2009, 9:45AM

When's He Getting to Gays In The Military? Or NAFTA?

There are a couple of things that Barack Obama promised in the 2008 campaign that he has not gotten to. Well, actually there are several but let's focus on gays in the military and NAFTA. On Sunday, Obama will speak at a big dinner for the Human Rights Campaign, but he seems unlikely to announce a repeal of the ban at the time--maybe reiterate his intention to repeal it but not the repeal itself. Over the weekend, Gen. James Jones, the national security adviser cast doubt that it would be soon. So if that's the case, how will the crowd react? Being a dressed-up Washington affair, I bet with polite applause but no catcalls.

Obama also promised to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement. There was a kerfuffle in the primaries when his economic adviser, Austan Goolsbee, was alleged to have said to Canadian officials that Obama didn't really mean it. Both Canadians and Goolsbee shot down the report. Still, no movement on NAFTA. The unions aren't putting much heat on Obama to get to this one, not with health care and the Employee Free Choice Act still on the table. But you have to wonder when he'll get to this one, too.

I'm not saying that Obama is spineless for holding off on these. It's probably the shrewd political move. But eventually he's going to have to address them.

Oct 7 2009, 6:41AM

Democratic Money Mandarins Meet In D.C.

The Mandarin Oriental plays host to the Democracy Alliance today, the gathering of philanthropic Democrats whose pooled money helped to catalyze the party's recent renaissance.  The members of the Alliance, all wealthy donors, will hear from organizations and individuals who want their money. Tonight, they'll also hear from Jim Messina, the White House deputy chief of staff. 

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Oct 7 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: Was Obama Right Not To Meet With Lama?

Was it the right move for President Obama to delay meeting with the Dalai Lama, who traveled to Washington yesterday to receive an award from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, until after he meets with Chinese President Hu Jintao in November?

Oct 7 2009, 6:00AM

The Rundown, 10/7

Difficult decision time continues for President Obama on Afghanistan, as the commander in chief will meet with his national security team again today to weigh the possible strategies and Gen. Stanley McChrystal's request for 40,00 more troops.

In less grave matters, it's science day at the White House: Obama will award the National Medal of Science and the National Medal of Technology at 1:30 p.m., and 150 middle schoolers will flood the White House tonight, along with their science teachers, astronomers, astronauts, and NASA staff to discuss/exhibit math and science education. Michelle Obama will host the event along with the president, as he will probably need the help.

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Oct 6 2009, 6:20PM

The Invisible Primary, 10/6

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

The leadership skills of Mike Huckabee will be included in a new book entitled Master Leaders; Levi Johnston stars in an ad for pistachios; Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) is using Sarah Palin to criticize his Senate primary opponent, Sen. Arlen Specter; and Mike Pence says President Obama and Congress have lost touch with American voters.

Oct 6 2009, 5:58PM

Hurtling Toward 2010, 10/6

The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:

Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) announced he'll run for Vice President Joe Biden's former Senate seat; Rasmussen puts Republicans ahead of Democrats, nationwide, by a margin of 43-39 in a generic congressional ballot poll; the firm also has Chris Christie (R) leading Gov. Jon Corzine (D) 47-44 in the 2009 New Jersey gubernatorial race; Marco Rubio (R), who is running against Gov. Charlie Crist (R) in Florida's GOP Senate primary, raked in $1 million in the third quarter; former Illinois Attorney General Jim Ryan released a poll that shows him as a contender in the state's gubernatorial race, indicating he'll probably run; and National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions said the GOP is "far ahead" of where it was at this point in the 1994 election cycle.

Oct 6 2009, 5:23PM

What Did Ailes Say To Axelrod? Here's A Hint.

Mike Allen reports that David Axelrod sat down with Fox News chairman Roger Ailes in New York a few weeks ago. No word on what the two discussed.

However ... last week, Axelrod, speaking at the First Draft of History Conference, recalled a conversation he had with a leading light of the Republican Party:

Axelrod said he spoke recently to a "very significant figure" on the right who told him that Obama "wanted to start a national police force."  "What are you talking about," Axelrod asked. The GOPer sent him a 21-second clip from a speech Obama made in Colorado last year -- a speech on national service -- and in it, Obama said he wanted to create a civillian force that could go into countries and provide humanitarian services.... Obama used the word "civil force"  -- "They took that 21-second bite .... and it has been taken as an article of faith that the president wants to create a national police force."

Oct 6 2009, 5:20PM

Swine Flu Vaccine, Pro And Con

Glenn Beck will air an hour-long special Thursday on the swine flu vaccine. He says he won't give his opinion on swine flu, but he will give viewers 30 minutes of medical doctors who say people shouldn't let their children get the vaccine and 30 minutes of the pro-vaccine side. Daily Kos's Jed Lewison posts the video of Beck explaining what the show will be:

Oct 6 2009, 4:20PM

Shutdown Of Intelligence Community E-mail Network Sparks E-Rebellion

The intelligence community's innovative uGov e-mail domain, one of its earliest efforts at cross-agency collaboration, will be shut down because of security concerns, government officials said. 

The decision, announced internally last Friday to the hundreds of analysts who use the system, drew immediate protests from intelligence agency employees and led to anxiety that other experimental collaborative platforms, like the popular Intellipedia website, are also in the target sights of managers.

It follows reports that another popular analytic platform called "Bridge," which allows analysts with security clearances to collaborate with people outside the government who have relevant expertise but no clearances, is being killed, and indications that funding for another transformational capability, the DoDIIS Trusted Workstation, which allows analysts to look at information at a variety of clearance levels -- Secret, Top Secret, Law Enforcement Sensitive
-- is being curtailed.

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Oct 6 2009, 4:11PM

Democrat Russ Feingold Criticizes White House Over "Czars"

Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) has organized a Senate Judiciary Constitution Subcommittee hearing on the administration's "czars"--a topic that has drawn a lot of criticism in conservative sectors. Feingold previously sent a letter to the White House seeking details on the czars, and was rebuffed. As a liberal Democrat, Feingold isn't a usual suspect for czar concern--a lot of the czar-related worry has been brought to prominence by Glenn Beck--but, while he reasons there's fewer than 10 people among those popularly referred to as "czars" who actually hold any kind of special position in the administration, in his opening statement today he criticized how the White House has handled matters of czar concern:

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Oct 6 2009, 12:53PM

Castle's Decision Affects Republican Mood

Other race rankings from Daily Kosthe Hotline, and 538.com

With Mike Castle's announcement that he's running for the Delaware Senate seat vacated by Vice President Biden today, it's possible -- not probable but possible -- that the seats formerly held by Barack Obama (IL -- the incumbent is appointee Roland Burris), Hillary Clinton (NY -- the incumbent is appointee Kristin Gillibrand), Harry Reid and Biden could all be in jeopardy in 2010 ... this is a sign of Republican confidence, solid Republican recruiting (which reflects confidence), and fundraising parity. At the beginning of the cycle, it looked like Democrats would have to defend a few seats and had the chance to pick up even more -- but they're now defending at least as many tough challenges as the Republicans.  How will Republicans exploit this opportunity? By matching the right type of candidate with the right state.

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Oct 6 2009, 10:29AM

Rush Limbaugh Wants To Own Part Of The Worst Team In The NFL

Al Davis might get a run for his money as most controversial NFL owner. Mark Cuban may get some competition for most attention given to any American sports magnate.

That's right: Rush Limbaugh wants to own part of the worst team in the NFL--the St. Louis Rams. Limbaugh joined a bid organized by Dave Checketts, owner of the St. Louis Blues, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch confirmed yesterday with NFL sources.

In a statement sent to KMOX radio, Limbaugh said: "Dave and I are part of a bid to buy the Rams, and we are continuing the process. But I can say no more because of a confidentiality clause in our agreement with Goldman Sachs. We cannot and will not talk about our partners. But if we prevail we will be the operators of the team."

So, while one might assume that Limbaugh would be a silent partner--if Limbaugh is capable of silence in any fashion--it looks as if he intends to have a role in the team.

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Oct 6 2009, 8:57AM

The Scots-Irish Vote

The populist fury aimed at President Obama and his fellow Democrats may have roots much deeper than health care. In fact, it may be that it can be traced back to the emigration of the Scots-Irish, the first white group to settle interior America.

They've been called rednecks, hillbillies and crackers. In the modern parlance of political correctness, they've been referred to as the Bubba vote. They live in Sarah Palin's "real America," and they make up the majority of Reagan Democrats. They count as distant relatives at least twelve U.S. presidents, from Andrew Jackson to Teddy Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan to Bill Clinton and even to Barack Obama, yet the Scots-Irish remain largely ignored as an ethnic group in America.

The Scots-Irish were a group of Scots who moved to Ulster, in Northern Ireland, before moving to the U.S. and first settling in New Hampshire and parts of Maine. Within a generation, they had moved down along the Appalachian spine, from western Pennsylvania and southeastern Ohio down into West Virginia, western Virginia, North Carolina, northern Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama and large parts of South Carolina, Kentucky and Tennessee. Many moved further south and west, down to the Gulf Coast and out to Oklahoma, Arkansas, East Texas and beyond. Eventually they migrated out to the Bakersfield region of California (think The Grapes of Wrath), and up the Great Plains to parts of Michigan, Kansas, Nebraska and Colorado (James Dobson and Tom Tancredo territory, not Denver and Boulder).

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Oct 6 2009, 8:54AM

SEIU's Data Footprint In 2008

Part two in a three-part series of posts: The 2008 Data WarsRe-examined. Yesterday: Data suggests that Democratic microtargeting efforts were successful. Late yesterday: Catalist's after action report, posted in full. Today: what the SEIU learned from its data-crunching.

For several cycles now, the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) has been among the most active progressive groups in the liberal firmament, spending in excess of $80 million to influence the 2008 election alone. According to an analysis of their efforts, the SEIU was in regular contact with more than 4.5 million voters in ten battleground states, including more than 1.2 million in Virginia alone.

For the first time, thanks to the data crunched by Catalist and the Analyst Institute, we can now figure out what, besides money, distinguishes SEIU's efforts from others.

Primarily, the data shows that 64% of all SEIU voter contact work was focused on live telephone calls to prospective voters and 24% on neighborhood canvasses.  Both percentages are much higher than the average for all progressive groups, which tended to use less personal forms of contact, like automatic "robocalls" and direct mail pieces. But SEIU, able to pay for hundreds of its members to work full-time, largely eschewed mail and robocalls.

"Text messaging and face to face contact are really the keys to success," said Jon Youngdahl, the SEIU's national political director, in an interview. "Phones - [robocalls] --  dropped off in terms of effectiveness. They don't work for get-out-the-vote. They might be better as persuasion tools, rather than as get-out-the-vote tools," he said.

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Oct 6 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: The Politics Of A Troop Increase

If President Obama sends more troops to Afghanistan, will it hurt him politically? What are the consequences of upsetting liberals?

Oct 6 2009, 6:00AM

The Rundown, 10/6

It's a big week for President Obama and his strategy in Afghanistan: he's summoned congressional leaders to the White House to discuss. On the more public side of defense matters, he'll deliver remarks at the National Counterterrorism Center.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, meanwhile, will pay respects at the memorial service for Norman Borlaug at Texas A&M. If you don't know who Borlaug was, watch this video. He was the Johnny Appleseed of genetically modified crops and feeding world populations.

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Oct 5 2009, 6:15PM

The Invisible Primary, 10/5

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Newt Gingrich says Tim Pawlenty should run; Mitt Romney has been on a fundraising tear; Bobby Jindal penned an op-ed for The Washington Post, declaring the debate over Democratic health reforms "over"; Mike Huckabee, on air at Fox News, directed viewers to a petition launched by his PAC; Todd Palin resigned from his oil job; and Louisiana Democrats say an illegal contribution from former Rep. Chip Pickering (R-MS) to Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) was funneled through Haley Barbour's PAC.

Oct 5 2009, 5:45PM

Hurtling Toward 2010, 10/5

The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL), the Republican (and thus darkhorse) candidate vying for President Obama's old Illinois Senate seat, hauled in a strong $1.6 million in the third quarter; Karl Rove donated to conservative upstart and Florida Senate candidate Marco Rubio; Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL), who will run against the winner of Rubio's primary against Gov. Charlie Crist, should benefit from a DC fundraiser hosted by Bill Clinton; and Rasmussen finds that Republicans could have a tough time hanging onto the Senate seat being vacated by the retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY).

Oct 5 2009, 5:30PM

Apple Leaves Chamber, Hot Over Climate

A few weeks ago, I noted an article explaining that yet another major firm was leaving the Chamber of Commerce over its climate change policy. That was a company called PNM Resources, notable because it was a utility company. Pacific Gas & Electric left the week before that. Several other notable companies like Nike and Johnson & Johnson have expressed concern. But none of that is quite as notable as today's news: Apple has been the latest departure from the Chamber. That's a pretty high profile firm to leave the largest business lobbyist.

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Oct 5 2009, 4:18PM

What An Iranian Nuclear World Might Look Like

Anthony Cordesman, the acclaimed military expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, has a new book out on Iranian weapons of mass destruction. Needless to say, this is not a happy picture, and a lot of the book's conclusions are what you'd expect. The prospect of Iran having nukes would likely set off a nuclear race in surrounding countries. The prospect of Iran putting nukes in the hands of terrorists is a possibility, although we've heard this one before a la Saddam in 2003. I'm not sure why any country would struggle so mightily to get nukes and then give them away to terrorist allies. Yes, I guess you could set off nukes without it being traced back to you, but that seems like a pretty unreliable gamble. Interestingly, Cordesman notes that throughout all of this nuclear buildup, Iran's conventional forces are actually pretty crummy, although its missile technology is more than enough to intimidate neighbors. And its capacity for so-called asymmetrical warfare by causing havoc through Hezbollah or Hamas or in Iraq remains pretty high. None of this addresses the question of whether the president is doing the right thing by negotiating with Iran more directly, but it is a timely reminder from a sober voice that an Iran with nukes is not a pretty picture.

Oct 5 2009, 3:34PM

HBO Airs Doc On Closeted, Anti-Gay-Rights Politicians

If you're intrigued, or perhaps even outraged, by closeted lawmakers who oppose gay rights, you may want to be around a TV at 9 p.m. Eastern tonight, when HBO will premiere OUTRAGE, a film about the very topic. It delves into the scandals of former Idaho Sen. Larry Craig and former New Jersey Gov. Jim McGreevey, as well as gay activist Michael Rogers, who founded a website dedicated to outing such allegedly hypocritical public figures. Rep. Barney Frank tells the filmmakers, "There is a right to privacy, but not a right to hypocrisy. It is very important that the people who make the law be subject to the law." From HBO's synopsis:
An official selection of the 2009 Tribeca Film Festival, OUTRAGE investigates the hidden lives of some of the country's most powerful policymakers - from now-retired Idaho Senator Larry Craig, to former New Jersey Governor Jim McGreevy - and examines how these and other politicians have inflicted damage on millions of Americans by opposing gay rights. Equally disturbing, the film explores the mainstream media's complicity in keeping those secrets, despite the growing efforts to "out" them by gay rights organizations and bloggers.

Oct 5 2009, 2:40PM

The Catalist After Action Report

Part two in a three-part series of posts: The 2008 Data Wars, Re-examined. Earlier today: Data suggests that Democratic microtargeting efforts were successful. Now: Catalist's after action report, posted in full. Tomorrow: Inside the Service Employees International Union's sophisticated targeting.

Here's a link to the after action report.pdf from Catalist, the big Democratic data warehouse, and from the Analyst Institute, about the 2008 election.

It was distributed to all 90 members, along with a specific appendix breaking out, for each group, the effectiveness of their individual contributions to the effort.

The data includes voter contact information for 16 states: CO, FL, GA, IA, IN, MI, MN, MO, NC, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, VA and WI.

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Oct 5 2009, 2:35PM

Obama Sees It Hillary's Way

Looks like the Senate Finance Committee won't get around to voting on health care for several more days. The Congressional Budget Office has taken longer than expected to tote up what the bill would actually cost. In the grand scheme of things this is no big deal, but it doesn't help matters when there's a delay, given all the forging and compromising and negotiating that needs to be done to try and get a bill through both houses of Congress by the end of the year. Odds are pretty good that the bill passes out of the Finance Committee on a party line vote, but Olympia Snowe, the Republican from Maine, could sign on, and Jay Rockefeller could opt out.

By the way, I don't think enough has been made of Obama's 180 degree turn on mandates since the Democratic primaries. As you may recall, Obama opposed mandates. Hillary favored requiring people to buy insurance. (To be fair, she opposed this back in '94 when the late Sen. John Chaffee proposed them.) This was one of the major issues dividing Obama and Clinton in a campaign that was more about gauzy themes of change and experience instead of real policy differences. Much was made in the elite media about Obama's reliance on the work of Cass Sunstein's book, "Nudge," about encouraging people to do the right thing. Mandates were paleogovernment in Obama's eyes. Now, um, not so much. As policy turnarounds go, this isn't on the order of, say, George W. Bush opposing nation building or Bill Clinton canceling the middle-class tax cut he promised in 1992. But it is a change, and it would probably be a bigger deal if Hillary Clinton were in the Senate instead of at State.

Oct 5 2009, 1:12PM

A Timely Hit On Ensign

Residents of Las Vegas and Reno will start seeing new TV ads today criticizing Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) for his votes against the public option in committee.

The progressive coalition Health Care for America Now! has announced a $100,000 media buy to run its ad for a week, after Ensign voted "no" to the public option last week in the Senate Finance Committee's (ongoing) markup of health reform legislation.

One might wonder: what's the point of pressuring a GOP senator everyone knows will vote against the public option, and probably against any Democratic plan, on the Senate floor--one who's not up for reelection until 2012?

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Oct 5 2009, 12:26PM

How Democrats May Be Helping Republicans Create A Corruption Narrative

The investigation into Rep. Charlie Rangel's alleged financial shenanigans is probably the most touchy question to pose to senior House Democrats and their aides these days. As the New York Times's Carl Hulse implied over the weekend, if Rangel were not the chairman of the Ways of Means Committee, if he were not a beloved figure among his colleagues, if fears of internal racial politics weren't in the mix, Rangel would be as good as stripped from his position. (Rangel says he's innocent and chides journalists who ask him about the investigation.) Rangel is one of several congressional Democrats who could plausibly become significant albatrosses around the neck of House incumbents next year, not the least of which because of his high-status position as the nation's chief tax writer. Events are conspiring with House Democrats to give Republicans a pretty solid anti-corruption narrative to run on. Of the 15 members of Congress who are under some sort of investigation, according to CREW, 11 are Democrats.

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Oct 5 2009, 11:08AM

Bobby Jindal Declares Health Care Debate Over

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) pronounces the death of Democratic health reform in an op-ed published this morning in The Washington Post: "Washington is the only place in the country that doesn't realize that this debate is over," he writes, after calling Dems' plans "passe" and proclaiming that "[t]he people don't want it. Believe the polls, the town halls, the voters."

Jindal may or may not be right about the ultimate fate of Democrats' broader plans, but, not to beat a dead horse, the polling doesn't say Americans oppose Democratic reforms. At best, we can say it's a mixed picture. Of the most recent, reliable, non-partisan major polls--a Sept. 12 Washington Post/ABC survey, an Economist/YouGov survey released Sept. 15, and a Sept. 25 NY Times/CBS poll--only the first shows Americans opposed to Democratic plans (48 percent to 52 percent); the other two show Americans in favor, though NY Times/CBS found that 46 percent say they don't know enough to decide.

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Oct 5 2009, 9:40AM

Exclusive: How Democrats Won The Data War In 2008

Part one in a three-part series: the 2008 Data Wars, Re-examined. Later today: Catalist's after action report, posted in full. Tomorrow: Inside the Service Employees International Union's sophisticated targeting.

Get-out-the-vote operations mounted by the Obama campaign, the Democratic Party and progressive organizations mobilized more than one million dedicated volunteers on Election Day. But it was buttressed by a year-long, psychographic voter targeting and contact operation, the likes of which Democrats had never before participated in. In 2008, the principal repository of Democratic data was Catalist, a for-profit company that acted as the conductor for a data-driven symphony of more than 90 liberal groups, like the Service Employees Union -- and the DNC -- and the Obama campaign.

The Atlantic has obtained Catalist's official after-action report, marked "proprietary and confidential."
The Catalist data was crunched by the Analyst Institute, a DC-based organization that was set up to perform rigorous experiments like these on progressive voter contact methods.

According to the analysis, those registered voters contacted by Catalist member groups turned out at a rate of 74.6%; the voters who weren't turned out in proportions roughly equivalent to the national average -- about 60.4%. In four states, the number of new votes cast by liberals exceeded Obama's victory margin: in Ohio, Florida, Indiana in North Carolina. If you assume that only 60% of these voters chose Obama, the margin was still greater than Obama's in North Carolina and Indiana, both essential to his victory
. With the caveat that correlation does not equal causation, the report provides convincing, if not absolute, evidence that the progressive/Democratic data-mining and targeting operation measurably helped elect Barack Obama.

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Oct 5 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: GOP Cover For Obama?

Last week, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) suggested Republicans could give President Obama the political cover he needs to send more troops to Afghanistan. If Obama wants to send more troops, does it help or hurt him more if Republicans endorse the move?

Oct 4 2009, 11:50AM

The Sunday Shows In Five Bullet Points

1. Gen. Jim Jones and Amb. Susan Rice were brought out to try and contain the growing sense that the flag officers in charge of fighting in Afghanistan have coalesced around a strategy that President Obama does not yet endorse. Jones said that the decision was "much more complex" than just "adding 'X' number of troops.

    "The key in Afghanistan, as we said back in March, is to have a triad of things happen simultaneously. Security is obviously one reason, one important thing to take care of, but the other two are economic development and good governance in the rule of law and on that score, we have a lot more work to do and a Karzai government is going to have to pitch in and do much better than they have. But underlying that is, of course, the effort to build up the Afghan national security force, the police, and the army and that will be an important part of whatever we decide to do."

2. Jones also suggested that pulling troops out of Afghanistan wasn't an option, and said that Afghanistan was not in danger of imminently falling to the Taliban.   On Face the Nation: ""Just like water running down hill. They're going to come back in. They had a safe haven there at one time. There's no reason to believe they wouldn't have a safe haven again. That's the purpose of this entire mission, to quell the al Qaeda and to make sure that the Taliban is not there to invite them back."
 
Rice, on Meet the Press, addressed the question of whether POTUS still saw Afghanistan as a war of necessity, as he said it was last August. The objective, she said, "was to prevent Al Qaeda from being able to launch attacks on the United States."

3. On Face the Nation, Gen. Anthony Zinni (ret) vented his frustration at the administration: "I don't understand why we are questioning the judgment of commander in Afghanistan."  Sen. Carl Levin, chair of the Armed Services Committee in the Senate, pointed the ratio of stood up NATO troops to Afghan troops. ""I would not commit to more combat troops at this time. There's a lot of other things that need to be done to show resolve. What we need a surge of is Afghan troops."

4. Alan Greenspan is cautious about a second stimulus package for two reasons: "One, only 40 percent of the first stimulus has been in place. And there is a considerable debate going on in the economics profession about how effective this stimulus package is...Mainly because of the fact that as broad as it is and as effective as it will turn out to be, it still has got 60 percent left to go. So in my judgment it's far better to wait and see how this momentum that has already begun to develop in the economy carries forward."

5. On This Week, Sen. Chuck Schumer and Sen. John Cornyn agreed on what a semi-second-stimulus might look like: they'd extend unemployment benefits and COBRA, and extend the housing tax credit (and perhaps expand it beyond $8,000 for first time purchasers.)

Quick takes: Jones said Obama will take his time on repealing Don't Ask, Don't Tell. "Not years," he said, but "teed up appropriately."

Sen. Barbara Boxer confirmed that the Senate Ethics Committee is investigating Sen. John Ensign's shenanigans.

GOP strategist Mike Murphy doesn't much care for the "radio guys" in his party.