In the span of a few short weeks, the special election in New York's 23rd congressional District has become the one result that the savviest church members are polishing off our sharpest metaphors for.
But what would a victory by the Democrat, Bill Owens, or the Conservative, Doug Hoffmann, actually mean? And is it possible that the political community will over-interpret the consequences? Most certainly. We're all lit-crits now; on Wednesday morning, the real lesson will be decided by whose explanation triumphs in a contested arena: Republicans versus Conservatives, Governing Conservatives versus Theoretical Conservatives, Palin-Beck Crazies versus Sane Modernists.
Before you get there, though, go here:
1. Gays. The Conservative Party got lucky. This perennial, much-maligned, occasionally lucky third party wanted to endorse a candidate who wasn't Dede Scozzafava, whom they just didn't like. They would have endorsed almost anyone else so long as that person would oppose gay marriage. Without Conservative Party chair Mike Long's decision to run a candidate in this district, NY-23 would be much less interesting.
2. Albany Rules. The local party's decision to choose Scozzafava was driven by Albany logic. They picked the insider legislative leader versus outsider businessman. Scozzafava is now the 3rd Albany politician (Former Assembly Minority Leader Jim Tedisco, '08 congressional candidate Ray Meier and Dede S.) to run and get attacked for votes in Albany. The Dems have run outsiderish business types and have done well. Indeed, Doug Hoffman is an outsiderish business type. The National Republican Congressional Committee understands this. They drove Democratic State Senator Darrell Aubertine out of the race by attacking him for links to New York Governor David Paterson. Aubertine had beaten Scozzafava in a special election for his senate seat.
3. Albany Sucks. If Hoffmann wins, Scozzafava would be the 3rd Republican to go down for Albany votes. Think that the NY GOP legislators are going to clue in at some point? Tedisco was minority leader. He went down. Dede is whip. She's probably going down, too.
4. Appended on to these ground conditions is a national fight about a whole bunch of things: the Tea Party energy, the stimulus package and the economy, Card Check, conservative activist anger, Social Issues.
5, Appended on these appendages is anger at the GOP in Washington, dissatisfaction with the National Republican Congressional Committee, and attempts by 2012 presidential candidates to earn a chit with the base.
George Pataki is a "Palin-Beck crazy"? Who knew?
If any Scozzafava or Owens supporters want to do something effective, go ask Doug Hoffman about immigration at one of his public appearances. He's a bit more Bush-like than most of his supporters would seem to want, and this appears to be yet another example of the TeaPartiers being useful idiots for someone who supports policies that would raise their taxes.
Also, spread this Dick Armey video around.
Hey! Someone posted this exact same comment at Ann Althouse! What a coincidence!
You mean there's another SuperGenius on the internet? That is indeed a coincidence.
P.S. Sorry you lost whatever prior debate we had.
Marc, you have one fact wrong.
Darrel Aubertine never ran against Dede Scozzafava for the NYS Senate. His special election victory was against another "moderate" Republican, Will Barclay.
Third-party candidates can add a real alternative for voters when they hold to conservative traditional constitutional values and become a choice not merely an echo. It should not take very long in these contests to determine the desires of most voters.
Now, in NY’s 23rd contest, we know beyond a shadow of doubt, Scozzafava was not a conservative Republican, just a liberal echo. Pro abortion, pro gay marriage, pro taxation, pro union open voting, pro increase in taxes and now one can add to her portfolio pro democrat Owens endorsement.
I remain amazed that several Republicans like Newt Gingrich supported Scozzafava until the very end. Rush Limbaugh was totally correct on his analysis of Scozzafava and her RINO label. He is also correct when he repeats on numerous occasions that for the Republicans to win they must abandon this moderate and bipartisan nonsense. We face a democrat, liberal, take no prisoners strategy. It’s time we proclaim our conservatism boldly and openly without apology or equivocation. Let us proudly defend,
A strong national defense,
An end to debt expansion and increased taxes.
A strong pro life and defense of traditional marriage act,
Continued proclamation of American freedom and individualism,
An effort to enforce the criminal laws already enacted,
An all out effort to promote the private sector and removal of unnecessary government regulations,
Greater promotion of individual freedom and small business entrepreneurship,
Promotion of a job creation and restoration program which minimizes corporate taxes and government controls,
Elimination of deceptive tax increases disguised as cap and trade legislation,
Elimination of unnecessary health reform proposals which can add trillions to the national debt long term,
The elimination of unconstitutional czars,
Elimination of illegal immigration and restoration of our borders,
Increased support for our military establishment and forces, and victory in military conflicts,
Renewed pride and support for the U.S. at home and abroad,
We need a renewal of conservative, constitutional principles of freedom and the pursuit of liberty and happiness. If we Republicans are to govern in the future it will only be with the consent of the American people, realizing we will make a life long commitment to conservatism. The Washington lobbyists must be replaced with the voices of average voters who want their country back. There can be no substitute for victory in 2010 and 2012.
Dr. Phillips