October 25, 2009 - October 31, 2009 Archives
Oct 31 2009, 11:09PM
Even More Lessons From New York 23
Analogizing races in politics is like eating pizza slices. Someone has too many; others are left hungry for at least one more slice.
The analog of NY-23 that comes to mind is the Florida GOP Senate primary, and this shows the promise and the limits of analogies. Like NY-23, conservatives have been protesting the GOP establishment's decision to rally around not-so-conservative but ostensibly popular Gov. Charlie Crist at the expense of challenger Marco Rubio. Rubio, like Hoffman, has been winning grassroots straw polls. Rubio, like Hoffman, has run as a populist conservative. Crist has some inherent vulnerabilities that, thanks to Rubio and to an aggressive Florida press corps, are beginning to be exploited. Similarities end, though: Rubio is a professional politician. He's crisper on the hustings. He knows the issues of the state. He's a plausible governor, having been mentored by Jeb Bush, Crist's predecessor. There are no third-party dynamics here, just a bunch of conservative activists who don't want Charlie Crist to be their senator. Late word from Florida tonight: Crist's popularity has dropped. The tag of "Empty Chair Charlie" -- referring to what pollster Tom Eldon calls his "uneventful" three years in office as well as, flirtatiously, to Crist's reputed intellectual fogginess.
Oct 31 2009, 10:04PM
Question Of The Weekend: A Third-Party Wave?
If Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman wins in New York's 23rd district special election, will we see more conservative third-party challengers in 2010?
Oct 31 2009, 11:39AM
Dede Drops Out!
Just four days before the election, Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava abandoned her campaign for the congressional seat in New York's 23rd Congressional district. Why? "It was time to do the right thing, which is to release the Republican County chairs, they've stood by me this entire time, and let them do what's best for the Republican Party," she told a local TV station. A series of polls showed Scozzafava in third place, well behind Democrat Bill Owens and, suddenly, Conservative Doug Hoffman, who had stolen about half of Scozzafava's base. Where do the rest of her votes go? CW says that most go to Hoffman, but I'm with Jonathan Martin: I think half go to Democrat Bill Owens or they stay home. GOP registration exceeds Democratic registration by nearly 50,000. This is a Republican district that is likely to remain Republican, -- only significantly more conservative than it's been.
Oct 30 2009, 8:12PM
State Secrets Invoked -- With A Rare, Almost Apologetic Explanation From The AG
Generally, the Attorney General doesn't comment on routine procedural matters in ongoing cases. But Shubert et. al v. Obama is not routine, and the procedure in question -- the State Secrets Doctrine -- is politically sensitive for the administration. Late today, the Department asserted the privilege to prevent the National Security Agency from having to disclose information about its domestic collection activities after the disclosure of the Terrorist Surveillance Program, or TSP, in 2005. The plaintiffs allege they were caught up in a "dragnet" of NSA surveillance that included unwarranted massive collection of domestic phone calls, e-mails and other data.
Oct 30 2009, 6:14PM
Cheney on Plame, Wilson, Etc.
We've finally got the release of Dick Cheney's interview with the FBI from the Valerie Plame investigation thanks to the folks over at Citizens for Ethics and Responsibility in Washington (CREW). I've just taken a quick glance at the documents, but already it's interesting, if not shocking. Cheney describes the situation at the CIA as "amateur hour," not only for its dispatch of Joe Wilson to Niger but also for its handling of the Iraqi intelligence. It'll take awhile to comb through all this but feel free to get started here and tell us what you think. For what it's worth there's only a passing reference to me and my conversation with Scooter Libby about the Plame affair. My take on the case can be found here and here.
Oct 30 2009, 6:00PM
The Case for Selling the Lincoln Bedroom
One of the overlooked stories of the week was The Washington Times account of big donors getting special visits and perks at the White House. No reports of the Lincoln Bedroom being used, but the efforts of the Times to stir the outrage that fueled conservative anger at the Clintons in the 90s is not surprising. But it is misplaced. Big donors or bundlers will always be with us, even in the McCain-Feingold era. They will get special treatment from presidents. The question is what kind of perks they get. If they get an NSC briefing or sleepover--not as a direct quid pro quo but as some sort of gesture of gratitude--seems reasonable to me, especially versus say writing legislation. If you have to give them something ego flattering, why not some time in America's house?
Oct 30 2009, 4:36PM
The Little-Guy Agenda
The Obama administration came into this summer with a sweeping plan for financial regulation--its proposals for how to prevent another meltdown after the mortgage crisis and the wave of bank failures that led up to President Obama's inauguration and continued to dominate discussion during his first months in office.
Obama and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner rolled out a package of proposals that included the creation of a Consumer Financial Protection Agency, regulation of derivatives, and an answer to "too big to fail"--setting up government regulators as a stopgap against gigantic banks taking on too much risks.
Obama and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner rolled out a package of proposals that included the creation of a Consumer Financial Protection Agency, regulation of derivatives, and an answer to "too big to fail"--setting up government regulators as a stopgap against gigantic banks taking on too much risks.
Oct 30 2009, 4:06PM
Orszag: Yeah, It Was The Stimulus
In a non-political, budget-wonk kind of way, Office of Management and Budget Director Peter Orszag tells Black Enterprise in an interview that, yes, according to other people's projections, the stimulus package was responsible for all 3.5 percent of the GDP's third-quarter growth, which was reported yesterday. From the interview:
How much of the current growth in the third quarter is the result of stimulus-related activity spurred by the federal government?
Well, the overall growth rate was 3.5% and you can take a variety of models. For example, Goldman Sachs suggests that the Recovery Act added 3.3%. Mark Zandi [economist and co-founder of Moody's Economy.com] says 3.6%. The President's Council of Economic Advisors also says 3.6%. The Congressional Budget Office gives a range of between 2% and 5%. So, average that and call it 3.5%. Basically, they're all in the 3% to 4% range. Therefore one could say that all the growth in the third quarter is attributable to the impact of the recovery act. Another way of putting is, without the recovery act--given these estimates of its impact--the economy would have been flat rather that growing during the third quarter.
Oct 30 2009, 2:26PM
The Stimulus Saved 650,000 Jobs? I'm Not Impressed.
Any minute now, recovery.gov will have a report that touts 650,000 jobs have been saved or created thus far by February's $787 billion stimulus package. In fact, the White House is already bragging about this on its blog. Am I the only person who's completely unimpressed?
Oct 30 2009, 2:04PM
Ethics Committee Gone Wild
Being in the right place at the right time matters in life, and that seems to be what happened at The Washington Post. The Post noticed that some confidential documents from the House ethics committee had been put on a public server, and they got themselves a big scoop--a list of lawmakers being examined by the committee. Such information is supposed to be kept confidential because it doesn't take much for the committee to examine a member, at least in an informal way. But it was later revealed that a junior staffer, working from home, had not followed the necessary security protocols, and so the list got leaked. It shows no fewer than seven members of the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee under scrutiny. Does that mean these members have broken the law? Not necessarily. Does it raise long-familiar questions about what Eisenhower famously called the military-industrial complex?
Oct 30 2009, 1:45PM
The Protesters Are Back
Not that they ever officially left, but Politics Daily's Shahzad Chaudhary reports an uptick in anti-war protest activity as President Obama weighs his options in Afghanistan, including more arrests at the Capitol this year than last:
With waning public approval of the Afghanistan war, however, antiwar groups have noticed an increase in support. "We've had a lot of decentralized action in October," said Gael Murphy, co-founder of Code Pink.
Antiwar actions such as the committee hearing protest, in which Blome and Hubert participated in earlier this month, have slowly started to reemerge. So far this year there have been eight official "disruption of Congress" arrests, compared with only four in all of 2008, according to Capitol Hill Police. These types of protests are likely to increase, said Murphy.
Oct 30 2009, 1:31PM
What the NY-23 Special Election Is Really About
In the span of a few short weeks, the special election in New York's 23rd congressional District has become the one result that the savviest church members are polishing off our sharpest metaphors for.
But what would a victory by the Democrat, Bill Owens, or the Conservative, Doug Hoffmann, actually mean? And is it possible that the political community will over-interpret the consequences? Most certainly. We're all lit-crits now; on Wednesday morning, the real lesson will be decided by whose explanation triumphs in a contested arena: Republicans versus Conservatives, Governing Conservatives versus Theoretical Conservatives, Palin-Beck Crazies versus Sane Modernists.
Before you get there, though, go here:
But what would a victory by the Democrat, Bill Owens, or the Conservative, Doug Hoffmann, actually mean? And is it possible that the political community will over-interpret the consequences? Most certainly. We're all lit-crits now; on Wednesday morning, the real lesson will be decided by whose explanation triumphs in a contested arena: Republicans versus Conservatives, Governing Conservatives versus Theoretical Conservatives, Palin-Beck Crazies versus Sane Modernists.
Before you get there, though, go here:
Oct 30 2009, 11:03AM
Polls: Lincoln, Bayh Could Face Campaign Troubles If They Oppose Public Option
Two Senate Democrats who represent swing votes on health care are also up for reelection in 2010, and polls commissioned by a liberal campaign group show they could be in trouble if they vote with Republicans to block health reform that contains a public option.
The Progressive Campaign Change Committee, a group dedicated to electing liberal lawmakers, has released polls testing the health care waters for Sens. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and Evan Bayh (D-IN), and both surveys, conducted by Research 2000, show that Democrats and independents will be less likely to support them in 2010 if they join a filibuster.
The Progressive Campaign Change Committee, a group dedicated to electing liberal lawmakers, has released polls testing the health care waters for Sens. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and Evan Bayh (D-IN), and both surveys, conducted by Research 2000, show that Democrats and independents will be less likely to support them in 2010 if they join a filibuster.
Oct 30 2009, 10:44AM
$50 Billion For Intelligence
The Director of National Intelligence, Dennis Blair, informed the press today that the National Intelligence Program, the primary account used to fund intelligence activities (and Hamid Karzai's brother's activities?) was $49.5 billion for FY 2009. Blair's required by law to disclose the number, which tells us... very little, actually, about spending across the intelligence community, except for the fact that we're spending a lot of money on intelligence. In 2008, the NIP budget hovered around $47.5 billion. In 1997, the figure for the comparable program was about $27 billion.
Oct 30 2009, 10:39AM
Metaphor Of The Week: Harry Reid's First Down
When Sen. Joe Lieberman told reporters that he wouldn't hesitate to join a Republican filibuster against closing debate on the health care bill, it was widely interpreted as a slap in the face of Democrats, Lieberman's Senate colleagues and the majority leader, Harry Reid. It was so obviously that, right? NBC's Ken Strickland has a different point of view. Lieberman, in fact, gave Harry Reid a victory. He said he wouldn't vote against bringing the bill to the floor -- which is really all that Reid expected of him. What Lieberman intends to do four weeks from now when the political atmospherics are almost certainly different -- that's anyone's guess. Here's Strickland's metaphor:
Point is, Reid needs first downs before he can get to the end zone or even the red zone. And right now, he doesn't even have the votes for that first down. So let's not get too far ahead of ourselves and try to predict what will happen in the red zone -- if Democrats carry the ball that far.
Oct 30 2009, 6:44AM
Lieberman Wants Senate-Confirmed Cyber Coordinator
Good timing for Sen. Joe Lieberman: the night before he's slated to lay out his vision for a comprehensive remake of the nation's cybersecurity laws, his colleagues on the House Ethics Committee were dealing with the fallout of a major cybersecurity breach.
In a speech this morning at the Chamber of Commerce, Lieberman, the chairman of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, will outline legislation that includes the step of making president's cyber coordinator a Senate confirmed position. The White House, which has not named its cyber coordinator, wants the position to be accountable only to the National Security Adviser.
In a speech this morning at the Chamber of Commerce, Lieberman, the chairman of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, will outline legislation that includes the step of making president's cyber coordinator a Senate confirmed position. The White House, which has not named its cyber coordinator, wants the position to be accountable only to the National Security Adviser.
Oct 30 2009, 6:30AM
Question Of The Day: Is 10,000 Enough?
Is 10,000 more troops--the number Americans support sending to Afghanistan according to a recent poll--enough to significantly affect the war?
Oct 30 2009, 6:00AM
The Rundown, 10/30
It's another day of consideration of Afghanistan for President Obama, who meets with his Joint Chiefs of Staff to discuss the war. Obama has been spending a lot of time consulting with his national security team over the past month, but he's expected to hold off on announcing a troop decision until after Afghanistan holds it's presidential run-off Nov. 7...to Dick Cheney's chagrin.
If you've been burned by overdraft fees, Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) is your new hero: the House Financial Services Committee, which he chairs, will hold a hearing on overdraft protection legislation--part of the Democratic agenda to slap consumer-protection regulations on banks and credit card companies after the financial crisis made us all so miserable.
If you've been burned by overdraft fees, Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) is your new hero: the House Financial Services Committee, which he chairs, will hold a hearing on overdraft protection legislation--part of the Democratic agenda to slap consumer-protection regulations on banks and credit card companies after the financial crisis made us all so miserable.
Oct 30 2009, 5:30AM
The Invisible Primary, 10/30
Tracking the GOP race to 2012
Some Iowa GOP activists don't like the idea of paying $100,000 for a Sarah Palin appearance; Haley Barbour jumped into the Texas gubernatorial race with an endorsement of conservative Gov. Rick Perry (R) over primary opponent Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R), campaigning with Perry in the state; Bobby Jindal reportedly traveled to Fresno, California to raise money for his gubernatorial re-election; Tim Pawlenty announced he'll travel to Mexico on a trade trip in November and meet privately with President Felipe Calderon; Pawlenty and Jindal signed onto a letter urging the Senate to pass the Iran Sanctions Enabling Act; and Mitt Romney won't take sides in New York's 23rd district special election.
Some Iowa GOP activists don't like the idea of paying $100,000 for a Sarah Palin appearance; Haley Barbour jumped into the Texas gubernatorial race with an endorsement of conservative Gov. Rick Perry (R) over primary opponent Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R), campaigning with Perry in the state; Bobby Jindal reportedly traveled to Fresno, California to raise money for his gubernatorial re-election; Tim Pawlenty announced he'll travel to Mexico on a trade trip in November and meet privately with President Felipe Calderon; Pawlenty and Jindal signed onto a letter urging the Senate to pass the Iran Sanctions Enabling Act; and Mitt Romney won't take sides in New York's 23rd district special election.
Oct 30 2009, 5:00AM
Hurtling Toward 2010, 10/30
The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:
Democracy Corps has Gov. Jon Corzine (D) leading his re-election race 43-38 over Republican Chris Christie; but a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll shows Christie moving into a 42-41 lead; another Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll shows a dead heat between Democrat Bill Owens and Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in New York's 23rd district special election, with Republican Dede Scozzafava trailing them by double digits; Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) got an endorsement from Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R); Dick Cheney, meanwhile, endorsed Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R), Perry's primary opponent; and former Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM) is running for governor.
Democracy Corps has Gov. Jon Corzine (D) leading his re-election race 43-38 over Republican Chris Christie; but a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll shows Christie moving into a 42-41 lead; another Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll shows a dead heat between Democrat Bill Owens and Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in New York's 23rd district special election, with Republican Dede Scozzafava trailing them by double digits; Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) got an endorsement from Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R); Dick Cheney, meanwhile, endorsed Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R), Perry's primary opponent; and former Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM) is running for governor.
Oct 29 2009, 6:08PM
Plouffe Time
David Plouffe, the Obama tactician, has a new book out and it's excerpted in Time. Crossing genres between political memoir and business advice book, it's called "The Audacity to Win." The new excerpts seem appropriately kind to the boss who brilliantly takes charge of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright affair with an oh-so-brilliant speech on race and who magnanimously considers Hillary Clinton for veep even while Plouffe and David Axelrod don't take the idea seriously. The weighty presence of Bill Clinton pushes her out of the final cut which includes no women--just three guys, Joe Biden, Virginia Governor Tim Kaine and Evan Bayh--who may become this generation's Dianne Feinstein, considered every four years and never getting the nod. Plouffe takes a gentle shot at Biden's famed locquaciousness but makes it clear that the veteran senator's experience and candor more than made up for it. I'd thought at the time that Obama would go with Kaine and double down on change in lieu of experience, and Obama did seem to consider it. I can't say the excerpt made me wanna read the whole thing, but I don't think we'll get a very revealing or cutting memoir from an Obamaite anytime soon.
Oct 29 2009, 4:50PM
Gallup: Obama Not Changing Racial Attitudes
There's some interesting new polling out from Gallup showing that, despite the election of the first African-American president, there hasn't been a big shift in racial attitudes. I suppose at some level that shouldn't be surprising. The election of Obama himself represented a thaw in racial attitudes, certainly since the civil rights era, but also since the 80s and 90s--the L.A. Riots, O.J. Simpson trial, etc. It's probably wrong to expect that after 10 months in office it would be much different. And the questions that Gallup poses are pretty crude measures: Do you expect America's race problems will end? That percentage is about the same as it was in 1963--55%--after dipping at the end of the O.J. trial to 29 %. Not surprisingly, African-Americans are more likely to say that racism exists now than whites. The more supple measures of race relations--intermarriage, friends of a different race, interaction, neighborhood and school integration--probably haven't changed perceptibly in the last year either, but those metrics will be interesting to watch in the coming years.
Oct 29 2009, 4:20PM
Grijalva: Progressives Will Push For Changes To House Bill
Liberal Democrats in the House of Representatives can get behind the health care bill Speaker Nancy Pelosi unveiled today, but they'll press Democratic House leaders to make changes to it, according to one of the leaders of the House Progressive Caucus.
Progressive lawmakers are "obviously disappointed" that Pelosi's bill didn't include a stronger public option, Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), one of two co-chairs of the House Progressive Caucus, said in a phone interview.
"There's a level of satisfaction that we've brought [the public option] back from the dead, but a level of disappointment that it's not what we think the mechanism should have been," Grijalva said.
Progressive lawmakers are "obviously disappointed" that Pelosi's bill didn't include a stronger public option, Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), one of two co-chairs of the House Progressive Caucus, said in a phone interview.
"There's a level of satisfaction that we've brought [the public option] back from the dead, but a level of disappointment that it's not what we think the mechanism should have been," Grijalva said.
Oct 29 2009, 3:36PM
Blast From The Past Newt: Reagan Revolution's Civil Rights Failure
In a way, Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House, predicted the Current Crisis in the Republican Party as early as 1989. In an interview that year with the Ripon Society, a still-on-his-vertical-trajectory Gingrich projected that the conservative movement would split between those who favored a "governing conservatism" and those conservatives who want to keep conservatism theoretical. Gingrich in 1989 sounds a lot like Gingrich in 2009, with some differences -- he supported a "living wage" back then. The interview, which you can find here, began with Ripon's moderator noting that Gingrich's ascension to the post of Minority Whip was built on the work of moderate Republicans.
Responded Gingrich: "There's no question that I would not be House Republican whip if activists in the moderate wing had not supported me. I carried New England by seven to three: I was nominated by Bill Frenzel; Olympia Snowe seconded my nomination; and others like Steve Gunderson and Claudine Schneider played major roles. So I regard my election as a coalition victory for activists of all the ideological views of the Republican Party."
Responded Gingrich: "There's no question that I would not be House Republican whip if activists in the moderate wing had not supported me. I carried New England by seven to three: I was nominated by Bill Frenzel; Olympia Snowe seconded my nomination; and others like Steve Gunderson and Claudine Schneider played major roles. So I regard my election as a coalition victory for activists of all the ideological views of the Republican Party."
Oct 29 2009, 3:08PM
Virginia Governor's Race: More Lessons Learned
Yesterday, I offered my first impressions about why Republican Bob
McDonnell is so handily beating Democrat Creigh Deeds in Virginia. Here
are some additional lessons that Republicans and Democrats are learning.
1. Culture Warriorism Don't Work. At least not in this environment. Deeds's internal polling showed that the number one issue, by far, for voters across state but in Northern Virginia in particular, was the economy, jobs and infrastructure improvement. This is no different than in previous elections, but the salience of these issues were all the more acute. Virginia remains the best place to do business (says CNBC) and its unemployment rate is the lowest in the nation. No surprise that Bob McDonnell focused his ads, like a laser beam, on these issues without referring to the incumbent.
1. Culture Warriorism Don't Work. At least not in this environment. Deeds's internal polling showed that the number one issue, by far, for voters across state but in Northern Virginia in particular, was the economy, jobs and infrastructure improvement. This is no different than in previous elections, but the salience of these issues were all the more acute. Virginia remains the best place to do business (says CNBC) and its unemployment rate is the lowest in the nation. No surprise that Bob McDonnell focused his ads, like a laser beam, on these issues without referring to the incumbent.
Oct 29 2009, 3:02PM
The Nuclear Stockpile Flashpoint
Last week, in writing about President Obama's decision to take a more hands-on approach to his Nuclear Posture Review, I implied that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton used a public speech to throw a dart at the Defense Department and Secretary Robert Gates by attempting to redefine what it means for the U.S. to be confident in the nuclear stockpile it has.
I quoted Clinton as saying that "General [Kevin P.] Chilton, Commander of U.S. Stratcom, has said repeatedly that he doesn't need new nuclear weapons capabilities -- but he must be confident in the capabilities that we have."
A senior defense official called to dispute the view that Clinton's comment amounted to a challenge to the Pentagon.
I quoted Clinton as saying that "General [Kevin P.] Chilton, Commander of U.S. Stratcom, has said repeatedly that he doesn't need new nuclear weapons capabilities -- but he must be confident in the capabilities that we have."
A senior defense official called to dispute the view that Clinton's comment amounted to a challenge to the Pentagon.
Oct 29 2009, 2:27PM
House Bill Wins Over Progressives
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's newly unveiled health care package isn't as ambitious as what most progressives have called for, but they're praising it as a big step toward passing a reform package that includes a public option.
"Today, House leadership proved it is on our side with a bill that makes health care much more affordable, ends egregious insurance industry abuse, and injects real choice and competition with the inclusion of a national public health insurance option," said Richard Kirsch, national campaign manager for Health Care for America Now!, the conglomeration of liberal interest groups that makes up the progressive-advocacy side of the health care debate.
"Today, House leadership proved it is on our side with a bill that makes health care much more affordable, ends egregious insurance industry abuse, and injects real choice and competition with the inclusion of a national public health insurance option," said Richard Kirsch, national campaign manager for Health Care for America Now!, the conglomeration of liberal interest groups that makes up the progressive-advocacy side of the health care debate.
Oct 29 2009, 1:47PM
Stimulus Spending, Before Your Very Eyes
The government watchdogs at the Sunlight Foundation have released a new iPhone 3GS/Android phone app that uses the phones' "augmented reality" function--which is probably the spookiest technology that exists today, outside the guided-missile acumen of predator drones--to conjure floating representations of stimulus contracts, wherever you are.
Oct 29 2009, 12:20PM
Obama Praises Deficit-Neutral Public Option
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's public option isn't quite what President Obama originally stumped for, but he congratulated the Speaker on including one in the House health care package she unveiled today at the Capitol--and on keeping the bill deficit neutral as she did it.
From his statement on the bill, released this morning by the White House:
From his statement on the bill, released this morning by the White House:
Oct 29 2009, 11:00AM
Pelosi: Health Care Bill Reduces Deficit, Spends More Than Senate Bill
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) says the conglomerated House health care reform bill--rolled out today at a news conference outside the Capitol--will be deficit neutral, a key qualification for getting moderates on board.
"The bill is fiscally sound, will not add one dime to the deficit," Pelosi proclaimed.
"The bill is fiscally sound, will not add one dime to the deficit," Pelosi proclaimed.
Oct 29 2009, 10:30AM
With Billions In The Balance, Clinton Tells Pakistan To Step It Up
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has been in Pakistan this week, and, in a meeting with editors in Lahore, she essentially accused Pakistan's government of knowing where al-Qaeda leaders are and choosing, of their own volition, not to go after them. From Bloomberg:
"Al-Qaeda has had safe haven in Pakistan since 2002," Clinton told a group of editors in the eastern Pakistani city of Lahore. "I find it hard to believe that nobody in your government knows where they are and couldn't get them if they really wanted to. Maybe that's the case; maybe they're not gettable. I don't know."
Oct 29 2009, 9:28AM
His Brother's Keeper
On Wednesday, The New York Times reported that Ahmed Wali Karzai, brother to Afghanistan president Hamid Karzai, is on the Central Intelligence Agency payroll. While the explanations are not expressly damning (C.I.A. and U.S. Special Operations forces rent a compound from him, and often use him as an intermediary to communicate with the Taliban), it's clear how the news will be received in the region. Theories that Afghanistan is a puppet state of the West are confirmed. Rumors that Hamid Karzai's interests rest with American hegemony are bolstered. And it exacerbates a "crisis of confidence" in the Afghanistan government, as experienced by the Afghan people and described by General Stanley McChrystal in his Commander's Initial Assessment. It is, by every measure, a catastrophe for the Karzai administration. And it comes a week before runoff elections strong-armed by the United States.
Ahmed Karzai isn't just a crony governor of a failing state in a spiraling war. He's the opium kingpin of Afghanistan, the Pablo Escobar of the Hindu Kush. According to General McChrystal, the war cannot be won so long as the illicit opium trade remains unfettered. ISAF has spent eight years torching everyone else's poppy fields, and yet, it seems, Ahmed Karzai has a C.I.A. paystub and a free pass. A U.S. official tells the New York Times, "There's no proof of Ahmed Wali Karzai's involvement in drug trafficking, certainly nothing that would stand up in court." The only thing missing is a wink and a knowing smile.
Ahmed Karzai isn't just a crony governor of a failing state in a spiraling war. He's the opium kingpin of Afghanistan, the Pablo Escobar of the Hindu Kush. According to General McChrystal, the war cannot be won so long as the illicit opium trade remains unfettered. ISAF has spent eight years torching everyone else's poppy fields, and yet, it seems, Ahmed Karzai has a C.I.A. paystub and a free pass. A U.S. official tells the New York Times, "There's no proof of Ahmed Wali Karzai's involvement in drug trafficking, certainly nothing that would stand up in court." The only thing missing is a wink and a knowing smile.
Oct 29 2009, 6:30AM
Question Of The Day: The Levi Factor
Oct 29 2009, 6:00AM
The Rundown, 10/29
House Democratic leaders will roll out their health care plan today, holding a rally on the West Front of the Capitol, which should give progressives many opportunities to cheer for the public option, as Pelosi's version is expected to be of the robust variety...though a compromise over reimbursement rates might draw only polite liberal applause.
A point of interest for any foreign-affairs buffs, Israel supporters, citizens of the world, or nuclear eschatologists: Iran will give its formal reply to the UN Atomic Energy Agency's proposed deal, which would see the country's low-grade enriched uranium shipped to Russia for further enrichment and returned.
A point of interest for any foreign-affairs buffs, Israel supporters, citizens of the world, or nuclear eschatologists: Iran will give its formal reply to the UN Atomic Energy Agency's proposed deal, which would see the country's low-grade enriched uranium shipped to Russia for further enrichment and returned.
Oct 29 2009, 5:30AM
The Invisible Primary, 10/29
Tracking the GOP race to 2012
More than seven in 10 respondents to a CNN poll said Sarah Palin isn't qualified to be president, but respondents do think she's honest; the same poll showed Mike Huckabee leading the field of big-name 2012 hopefuls; Palin blasted Levi Johnston for his upcoming Playgirl shoot; the Iowa Family Policy Center says it's working on bringing Palin back to Iowa for a speaking engagement; Mitt Romney stumped for gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell (R) in Virginia Wednesday; Huckabee appeared at a New York Conservative Party dinner in upstate New York Tuesday night, but he hasn't endorsed their candidate, Doug Hoffman, in the 23rd district special election; according to the blog Race 4 2012, Mike Pence will endorse Kansas Senate candidate Todd Tiahrt (R); snubbed by the quasi-phony "Entrepreneur of the Year" awards being doled out by Newt Gingrich's group, American Solutions for Winning the Future, the owner of a Dallas strip club will name a shelter for pitbulls in Gingrich's honor.
More than seven in 10 respondents to a CNN poll said Sarah Palin isn't qualified to be president, but respondents do think she's honest; the same poll showed Mike Huckabee leading the field of big-name 2012 hopefuls; Palin blasted Levi Johnston for his upcoming Playgirl shoot; the Iowa Family Policy Center says it's working on bringing Palin back to Iowa for a speaking engagement; Mitt Romney stumped for gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell (R) in Virginia Wednesday; Huckabee appeared at a New York Conservative Party dinner in upstate New York Tuesday night, but he hasn't endorsed their candidate, Doug Hoffman, in the 23rd district special election; according to the blog Race 4 2012, Mike Pence will endorse Kansas Senate candidate Todd Tiahrt (R); snubbed by the quasi-phony "Entrepreneur of the Year" awards being doled out by Newt Gingrich's group, American Solutions for Winning the Future, the owner of a Dallas strip club will name a shelter for pitbulls in Gingrich's honor.
Oct 29 2009, 5:00AM
Hurtling Toward 2012, 10/29
The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:
Polls from Rasmussen and Virginia Commonwealth University have Creigh Deeds (D) trailing Bob McDonnell (R) in Virginia's '09 gubernatorial race by 13 and 18 points; a group of Doug Hoffman supporters is airing an ad in New York's 23rd district calling Republican Dede Scozzafava "the best choice for progressives"; the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent another $244,000 helping Democrat Bill Owens in that race (H/T Swing State Project); Quinnipiac shows New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) leading his re-election race against Republican Chris Christie 43-38; a Franklin & Marshall College poll shows Sen. Arlen Specter (D) sliding with a 28 percent approval rating but still ahead of his challengers; and another Connecticut Republican--former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley--is airing ads against Sen. Chris Dodd (D).
Polls from Rasmussen and Virginia Commonwealth University have Creigh Deeds (D) trailing Bob McDonnell (R) in Virginia's '09 gubernatorial race by 13 and 18 points; a group of Doug Hoffman supporters is airing an ad in New York's 23rd district calling Republican Dede Scozzafava "the best choice for progressives"; the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent another $244,000 helping Democrat Bill Owens in that race (H/T Swing State Project); Quinnipiac shows New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) leading his re-election race against Republican Chris Christie 43-38; a Franklin & Marshall College poll shows Sen. Arlen Specter (D) sliding with a 28 percent approval rating but still ahead of his challengers; and another Connecticut Republican--former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley--is airing ads against Sen. Chris Dodd (D).
Oct 28 2009, 7:44PM
"The Legacy of a Legacy"
Chris Geidner is a lawyer who lives in Washington, D.C., and writes at Law Dork, voted the Best Law Blog in 2005. He also has written for Salon, The Washington Blade and FindLaw's Writ and has guest blogged at Wonkette, the ThinkProgress Wonk Room and the ACSblog. You can follow him on Twitter.
Eleven years ago this month, Matthew Shepard was killed. A bill that had been slowly gaining support in Congress -- the Hate Crimes Prevention Act -- soon became associated with Matthew, his memory and the legacy of his death that is his mother's work.
Oct 28 2009, 3:41PM
Crazed Anti-Obama Fantasies, In A Video Game
Wow. I clicked on one of those banner ads on the Drudge Report, which are usually right-wing but innocuous enough. This one, though, was for some crazed game called "The United States of Earth," a computer game that imagines an Obama coup that suspends civil liberties, sees Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh imprisoned and Cass Sunstein die. Sicko stuff. See it here.
Read a gamer mag's take on it here. Wow.
As one who covered nuttiness like the Jerry Falwell implication that Bill Clinton was involved in murders, I thought I'd lost my capacity to be shocked. Have you seen other things like this? Let me know.
Read a gamer mag's take on it here. Wow.
As one who covered nuttiness like the Jerry Falwell implication that Bill Clinton was involved in murders, I thought I'd lost my capacity to be shocked. Have you seen other things like this? Let me know.
Oct 28 2009, 3:18PM
What Did Congress Know About Wali Karzai?
What did Congress know about Wali Karzai? The C.I.A. isn't obligated to report the identity of every agent or recipient of its laundered funds, but given the importance of W. Karzai to the operation and given how much money he seems to have gotten, good lawyers at the agency probably would have suggested that the notification be made, at least to the "Gang of 8." Reporters aren't having any luck getting members of the intelligence committees to comment.
And why aren't Republicans jumping on the news, framed by some in this way: that the Obama administration propped up one of the biggest (alleged) opium dealers in Afghanistan -- opium that is funding Taliban forces committed to the death of American soldiers?
I suspect it's because Republicans like the idea of the CIA being aggressive. Or they don't know all the facts...and don't want to inadvertently confirm a story that isn't true.
Incidentally: how hard is it going to be for the CIA to promise anonymity to lower-level Afghan Taliban leaders and potential sources now?
Oct 28 2009, 3:16PM
Blowing Wali Karzai's Cover: A Wall Of Silence
A wall of silence met inquiries about the New York Times' revelation that the Ahmed Wali Shah Karzai, the brother of the President of Afghanistan and a suspected opium lord, has been on the CIA payroll since 2001.
Oct 28 2009, 2:30PM
Newt Makes the Case for Moderates
Even politicos sometimes forget how much Newt Gingrich and Tom DeLay and the GOP House leadership of the 90s was liked by moderates. They may not have agreed ideologically, but the aggressive conservatives always took care of moderate members, making sure they were protected on their right flanks, not pushing them into too many painful votes. DeLay was known as the Hammer, but he was also a courtier, too. That tendency is on display today as Newt Gingrich makes the case for his support of the GOP nominee, Dede Scozzafava, in that contested congressional race in New York state where the likes of Sarah Palin and Dick Armey (an exception, perhaps, to the DeLay-Gingrich reign) and other prominent conservatives have endorsed the Conservative Party candidate, Doug Hoffman, over the Republican. Gingrich makes the case that moderates were key to the House Republican successes of 1994 and shouldn't be shunned. He makes the argument here. The seat is vacant because Barack Obama tapped John McHugh, a Republican congressman, to be secretary of the Army. For what it's worth, Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood, a former Republican congressman from Illinois, told me last month that he reassured the White House that McHugh would be a great "team player"--which is what LaHood himself has turned out to be.
Oct 28 2009, 2:00PM
Afghanistan Poll: Good News For The White House, A Split Decision For McChrystal
An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll today found that the public now supports sending more troops to Afghanistan...and not only that: a resounding 58 percent majority thinks it's best for President Obama to delay his final decision until after Afghanistan holds its presidential run-off election on November 7.
All this is good news for the White House: the American public supports Obama in exactly the two areas in which he faces political opposition. The left doesn't want more troops, while the right (embodied most recently by Dick Cheney and John McCain), have attacked the president for waiting too long to decide. Evidently, the public doesn't agree with either group of critics.
But the poll reveals more complex opinions on exactly how many troops to send and what mission they should undertake.
All this is good news for the White House: the American public supports Obama in exactly the two areas in which he faces political opposition. The left doesn't want more troops, while the right (embodied most recently by Dick Cheney and John McCain), have attacked the president for waiting too long to decide. Evidently, the public doesn't agree with either group of critics.
But the poll reveals more complex opinions on exactly how many troops to send and what mission they should undertake.
Oct 28 2009, 1:34PM
Public Option Options: The Unknown Unknowns
Here's a thumbnail guide to the public option options out there. For a great graphical representation, check out Nate Silver's work. For a tight look at the Senate's options, read Ezra Klein's.
To figure out what the public option will do, you first need to know
(1) Who pays for it -- the government or individuals through premiums?
(2) Who gets to participate? Everyone? Small businesses?
(2) Who gets to participate? Everyone? Small businesses?
(3) How much providers are paid, and who gets to set the rates?
(4) Do states get to opt-in, or opt-out? How large does a public option have to be in order to have any effect? What's the existing market like?
(5) Does it kick in immediately? Is there a trigger?
(4) Do states get to opt-in, or opt-out? How large does a public option have to be in order to have any effect? What's the existing market like?
(5) Does it kick in immediately? Is there a trigger?
Oct 28 2009, 12:11PM
Pre-Mortem: How Did Deeds Get Into So Much Trouble?
I could just as easily have titled this post "Why Bob McDonnell is winning." Let's start with the candidate. As Virginia uber-blogger Not Larry Sabato points out, to be a governor is to be a manager. Voters intuitively understand this, and so they look to the candidate who seems to be the best manager. Creigh Deeds (D) doesn't come off as a confident, crisp, efficient manager; Bob McDonnell does. The dynamics of an open seat, with a much narrower pool of voters, a re-energized Republican Party -- these conditions were expected, and they were satisfied. Deeds's climb would be uphill. Also: Virginians fell in love with Mark Warner. They fell in like with Tim Kaine. They seem underwhelmed by Creigh Deeds.
Here are six other reasons why Deeds is losing among, for goodness sakes, even women.
Here are six other reasons why Deeds is losing among, for goodness sakes, even women.
Oct 28 2009, 12:01PM
Schwarzenegger Sticks It To Assemblyman, Acrostic Style
Just a little eff you to to an ornery assemblyman from California's governor: Arnold Schwarzenegger sent a letter to the California Assembly on October 11 promising a veto of Assembly Bill 1176, which would deliver some state funding to San Francisco for waterfront restoration...and the first letter of each line spells out a special message, presumably for the bill's author, Democrat Tom Ammiano, who yelled "You lie!" at Schwarzenegger when the governor stepped up to the podium during an unannounced visit to a San Francisco Democratic Party gala earlier this month.
Oct 28 2009, 11:08AM
Ad Watch: Seniors Group Launches Multi-State Ad Against Democratic Health Reform
The 60-Plus Association, a conservative seniors group (which retains Pat Boone as its spokesman), has dedicated $2 million to running an ad against Democratic health reforms in eight states over the next week, pressuring moderate senators who will cast swing votes in the Senate on health care.
The subject of the ad: cuts to Medicare spending.
The subject of the ad: cuts to Medicare spending.
Oct 28 2009, 10:57AM
On 11/21 in Iowa, Biden v. Palin, One Round...
News that the Iowa Family Policy Center is trying to recruit former AR Gov. Sarah Palin to attend its major annual fundraiser sets up the media-drooling possibility of a Fight Night in Des Moines. The IFPC has rented the Wells Fargo Center downtown. Across the street, at Hy-Vee Hall, Vice President Joe Biden will attend the Iowa Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson dinner.
Oct 28 2009, 10:05AM
Steele Still On Board With Scozzafava
As high-profile Republicans (other than Newt Gingrich) flock to endorse Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in New York's 23rd district special election over the Republican in the three-way race, Dede Scozzafava (R) still has one prominent supporter besides the former Speaker: Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele.
"I support the republican nominee as the republican party chairman, and that's the way it should go, right?" Steele told NBC's Chuck Todd this morning during an interview on MSNBC's Morning Joe (video here--fast forward to 4:55).
"I support the republican nominee as the republican party chairman, and that's the way it should go, right?" Steele told NBC's Chuck Todd this morning during an interview on MSNBC's Morning Joe (video here--fast forward to 4:55).
Oct 28 2009, 9:42AM
Palin's Honest But Unqualified, Americans Say
There's been some perturbation in Sarah Palin's orbit since the end of the presidential campaign. The new NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll finds a statistically significant drop in her favorability numbers since July; only 26% of Americans have a positive response to her versus 42% who regard her with suspicion. CNN's version of the same question lumps together the "mostlies" and pushes respondents to make an assessment. Palin's favorability rating rises to 42%; her unfavorability rating rises to 52%.
Oct 28 2009, 6:30AM
Question Of The Day: If Oprah Could Ask One Question...
What question would you most like Oprah to ask Sarah Palin when she appears on the talk show Nov. 16?
Oct 28 2009, 6:00AM
The Rundown, 10/28
It's a day of ceremony, largely, for President Obama: he'll speak in the Capitol Rotunda at a Congressional Gold Medal ceremony for former Sen. Edward Brooke this morning, then he'll sign the FY2010 defense authorization bill, with Defense Secretary Robert Gates in tow, and then he'll make a speech this evening at the White House commemorating the enactment of hate crimes legislation.
But, amid all the Obama pomp and circumstance...NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell will make an appearance on Capitol Hill today, along with former NFL players Tiki Barber and Merril Hodge, who will testify along with a host of football and medical experts before a House Judiciary Committee hearing on legal issues related to football head injuries.
But, amid all the Obama pomp and circumstance...NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell will make an appearance on Capitol Hill today, along with former NFL players Tiki Barber and Merril Hodge, who will testify along with a host of football and medical experts before a House Judiciary Committee hearing on legal issues related to football head injuries.
Oct 28 2009, 5:30AM
The Invisible Primary, 10/28
Tracking the GOP race to 2012
Sarah Palin got an advance of $1.25 million for her memoir; Levi Johnston, meanwhile, says he plans to "leak some things" on Palin; the former Alaska governor also encouraged her supporters, via Facebook, to rally around the Republican Governors Association and the GOP's gubernatorial candidates in New Jersey and Virginia; Rick Santorum addressed a FreedomWorks event in North Carolina and said Americans are living in "fear" in the Obama era; and Newt Gingrich criticized GOP support for Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in New York's 23rd district as a "purge."
Sarah Palin got an advance of $1.25 million for her memoir; Levi Johnston, meanwhile, says he plans to "leak some things" on Palin; the former Alaska governor also encouraged her supporters, via Facebook, to rally around the Republican Governors Association and the GOP's gubernatorial candidates in New Jersey and Virginia; Rick Santorum addressed a FreedomWorks event in North Carolina and said Americans are living in "fear" in the Obama era; and Newt Gingrich criticized GOP support for Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in New York's 23rd district as a "purge."
Oct 28 2009, 5:00AM
Hurtling Toward 2010, 10/28
The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:
In the '09 races...Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman got some more help as the Club for Growth cycled in a new ad for him in New York's 23rd district special election, as part of a $300,000 media buy announced last week; a Neighborhood Research poll commissioned by the Minuteman PAC finds Hoffman leading the race with 34 percent; a Washington Post poll shows Republican Bob McDonnell leading Democrat Creigh Deeds 55-44 in Virginia's gubernatorial race; SurveyUSA, meanwhile, has McDonnell up 58-41; Rasmussen finds Republican Chris Christie ahead of Gov. Jon Corzine (D) 46-43 in New Jersey; and in 2010 news...the National Republican Congressional Committee added 32 candidates to its Young Guns program; a Ron Paul supporter in Nevada launched a PAC opposing Sue Lowden, one of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's (D-NV) Republican challengers; and Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) is attracting some negative attention for calling a female Fed advisor a "K Street whore."
In the '09 races...Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman got some more help as the Club for Growth cycled in a new ad for him in New York's 23rd district special election, as part of a $300,000 media buy announced last week; a Neighborhood Research poll commissioned by the Minuteman PAC finds Hoffman leading the race with 34 percent; a Washington Post poll shows Republican Bob McDonnell leading Democrat Creigh Deeds 55-44 in Virginia's gubernatorial race; SurveyUSA, meanwhile, has McDonnell up 58-41; Rasmussen finds Republican Chris Christie ahead of Gov. Jon Corzine (D) 46-43 in New Jersey; and in 2010 news...the National Republican Congressional Committee added 32 candidates to its Young Guns program; a Ron Paul supporter in Nevada launched a PAC opposing Sue Lowden, one of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's (D-NV) Republican challengers; and Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) is attracting some negative attention for calling a female Fed advisor a "K Street whore."
Oct 27 2009, 10:18PM
Gore Vidal On Obama: "Experience Mattered"
In an interview with author John Meroney, provocateur Gore Vidal has some choice words about politics. In the primaries, he supported Hillary Clinton. Here's what he says about Barack Obama:
"... And I've always been very pro-African-American - or whatever phrase we now use. I was curious to see what would happen when their time came. I was delighted when Obama appeared on the scene. But now it seems as though our original objection to him - that experience mattered - was well-founded."
And here's Vidal on Ted Kennedy's legacy:
"... And I've always been very pro-African-American - or whatever phrase we now use. I was curious to see what would happen when their time came. I was delighted when Obama appeared on the scene. But now it seems as though our original objection to him - that experience mattered - was well-founded."
And here's Vidal on Ted Kennedy's legacy:
Read the rest, here.It's nothing. But I predicted that at the beginning, when Jack started backing him for his U.S. Senate seat. Historian Arthur Schlesinger, Jr., who was a loyal Kennedy courtier, agreed. But Jack was funny about it. He never took Arthur seriously. He always called him "the movie critic." (Imitating JFK's accent) "What does 'the movie critic' have to say about this issue?" He liked to tease Arthur.
Oct 27 2009, 6:36PM
Reality Check: Biden At 42% In Context
Joe Biden's less popular than Al Gore? Than Dick Cheney? Say it ain't so. OK, it ain't so. A new Gallup poll out this week suggests that Biden's favorability rating has reached its lowest level since the Democratic National Convention. It's now 42%, a full 13 points lower than President Obama's current rating and ten points below where Biden rated at the inauguration. Gallup measured the ratings of Al Gore and Dick Cheney over the course of 1993 and 2001, respectively, and found that Cheney averaged a 65% approval rating and Gore, a 55% approval rating.
Oct 27 2009, 5:10PM
The Weirdest Political Video On The Planet
In case you're wondering where to find the weirdest political videos on the planet, look no further than ACORN Man--a crudely rendered digital superhero who consorts with Missouri Secretary of State and U.S. Senate candidate Robin Carnahan (D), as well as fellow hero SEI-Ultra (a metonymy for the Service Employees International Union), to discuss secret payoffs and the construction of an underground lair, all in a computerized monotone:
Oct 27 2009, 4:15PM
Tacky, Tacky: Throwing Creigh Deeds Under The Bus
The throw-Creigh-Deeds-under-the-bus moment will be one of the more memorable from this off-year election. Last week, the Washington Post cited a White House official already distancing the president from the Virginia Democrat running for governor. Obama is in Virginia today, trying to drive up minority turnout in the Norfolk area. Polls, though, show Deeds is slipping and seems unlikely to win against his Republican rival, Bob McDonnell, who has portrayed himself as a moderate and seems to be doing a good job at it. Obama is not one to risk a lot for those pols in need. If he had gone to Minnesota to help Al Franken at the end of the 2008 campaign he probably would have avoided the runoff that Franken just barely won. Obama doesn't really appear on stage with other politicians generally. He throws out a few thank yous, but he's not a bear hugger with those in trouble. Maybe that's wise for him, but it's not the most generous tendency. That said, in Virginia, Obama's a mixed blessing, and he can't help as much as he can in New Jersey where the state is more Democratic and the Republican candidate is more hapless. Still, that quote in the Washington Post dissing Deeds was pretty awful and sends a message to 2010 candidates that the White House will help--but only so much.
Oct 27 2009, 3:57PM
The Fox Fight--A Base Rallier
The Fox News kerfuffle continues. Rachel Maddow made the point last night that Fox stopped being a regular news network when it moved into advocacy for the Tea Partiers. I'm not sure I buy that. If it wasn't an advocacy network before, that was hardly the turning point. I'm in the camp, as I've written, that most MSM journalists are: this was probably a mistake for the White House. That's not because I think Fox is fair and balanced--it's not--but because it looks small of the White House and it disses the Democratic and independent viewers who watch Fox. That said, one point I should have made: This sure has rallied the Democratic base, especially in the days before the public option got put in the Senate health care bill. If Obama was dragging on don't-ask-don't-tell and closing Gitmo and is about to add more troops in Afghanistan, well, this was easy red meat. I'm not saying the argument is wholly without merit, but it struck me as kind of a sideshow.
Oct 27 2009, 1:59PM
In Supporting Filibuster, Lieberman Plays For Power
How many Democrats instantly flashed back to President Obama's expansive attitude toward Sen. Joseph Lieberman after the 2008 elections, where Lieberman threatened to leave the party after Harry Reid tried to strip him of his Homeland Security Committee chairmanship? Publicly, the White House said that reconciliation was the order of the day. Privately, they sent word that Lieberman would be a reliable vote on the big issues of the day, like, um, health care. As Lieberman pal Chris Dodd put it at the time, Lieberman "is willing to be a member of your family," so why not let him in?
Oct 27 2009, 1:34PM
Snowe Explains Her Health Care Journey
Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) wouldn't exactly say whether she'll ultimately oppose a health care bill that includes an opt-out public option today. Speaking to reporters on Capitol Hill, Snowe promised to "continue to work on issues as this bill comes to the floor." She said that she spoke to President Obama on Friday, and with Obama "basically indicating to me that it was likely you know that the public option would be considered as part of the integrated plan between the HELP and the Finance Committee but wanted to continue to work with me in the future." (BTW: This was before Democratic aides on the Hill leaked word to reporters that the White House was still trying to pressure senators to keep Snowe's "trigger" option viable.)
Oct 27 2009, 1:17PM
Prespinning November 3: A Good Night For....
Let's assume that Republicans win the Virginia governor's race, Democrats win New Jersey's gubernatorial race, Democrat Bill Owens wins the special election in New York's 23rd Congressional district, voters approve gay marriage in Maine and turn back domestic partnership benefits in Washington State.
Oct 27 2009, 12:55PM
Grayson Says Something Offensive...For Real This Time
Democrats had a good lighthearted chuckle when Republicans started calling for Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) to apologize after he suggested that the GOP health care plan was for Americans "to die quickly." Things got a little weirder when he launched a website called Names of the Dead to list Americans who've died because they don't have health insurance--a noble goal in progressive eyes...but sounds like a zombie movie. Now, he's really done it: in a month-old radio interview that's now making the rounds, he calls Linda Robertson, an advisor to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, a "K Street whore." This one will probably stick.
Oct 27 2009, 12:23PM
GOPWars: Newt Gingrich, RINO in Chief?
He was once a revolutionary himself, challenging the party structure, blasting away orthodoxies and storming to power. But former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich finds himself in the role of the old guy in the basement. Last night, appearing on Fox News's "Greta!" Van Susteren, Gingrich found himself urging conservatives not to forsake the adequate at the expense of a party that can win national elections.
This sounds like the debate that out-parties always have. Activists stress ideological purity and party apparatchiks stress coalition-building. Activists question the fidelity of the national party committees to principles (e.g., to quote Christ, "What good will it be for a man if he gains the whole world, yet forfeits his soul? Or what can a man give in exchange for his soul?" (Matt. 16:26 NIV)); the national party committees question the activists' relationship to reality.
This sounds like the debate that out-parties always have. Activists stress ideological purity and party apparatchiks stress coalition-building. Activists question the fidelity of the national party committees to principles (e.g., to quote Christ, "What good will it be for a man if he gains the whole world, yet forfeits his soul? Or what can a man give in exchange for his soul?" (Matt. 16:26 NIV)); the national party committees question the activists' relationship to reality.
Oct 27 2009, 12:18PM
More Help For Hoffman
The Club for Growth will start airing its second ad for Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in New York's 23rd district special election, which has become the hottest off-year race in the country as conservatives have flocked to support Hoffman over GOP candidate Dede Scozzafava in their three-way contest with Democrat Bill Owens.
The Club launched its first ad for Hoffman last week, comparing him to the Republican Scozzafava; the new ad seeks to marginalize Scozzafava, asserting that the race "comes down to two very different candidates"--Hoffman and Owens.
The Club launched its first ad for Hoffman last week, comparing him to the Republican Scozzafava; the new ad seeks to marginalize Scozzafava, asserting that the race "comes down to two very different candidates"--Hoffman and Owens.
Oct 27 2009, 11:58AM
No Good Deeds Go Unpunished
Even more evidence that something went very very wrong with the Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Virginia:
The Washington Post notes that Bob McDonnell "has overtaken Deeds as the one more trusted to handle issues of special concern to women (7 points)."
Maybe Deeds should run a few more "thesis" ads...
The Washington Post notes that Bob McDonnell "has overtaken Deeds as the one more trusted to handle issues of special concern to women (7 points)."
Maybe Deeds should run a few more "thesis" ads...
Oct 27 2009, 11:29AM
The Yes Men Get Sued
It's all fun and games until somebody files a civil complaint.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce filed suit yesterday in federal district court against The Yes Men, the group of pranksters who perpetrated the fake Chamber press release last week claiming the business group had reversed its climate-change stance and announced support for Democratic cap-and-trade policies in a speech by its president at the National Press Club.
The Chamber says it filed the suit after its lawyers asked The Yes Men to dismantle a fake Chamber website it set up for the prank, which uses the Chamber's logo, and the pranksters refused.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce filed suit yesterday in federal district court against The Yes Men, the group of pranksters who perpetrated the fake Chamber press release last week claiming the business group had reversed its climate-change stance and announced support for Democratic cap-and-trade policies in a speech by its president at the National Press Club.
The Chamber says it filed the suit after its lawyers asked The Yes Men to dismantle a fake Chamber website it set up for the prank, which uses the Chamber's logo, and the pranksters refused.
Oct 27 2009, 10:44AM
Fox's Ratings Bump--Don't Just Credit The White House War
Business Insider has a comparison of Fox News ratings since the White House launched its campaign against the network, and it finds Fox's audience share among cable networks has grown nine percent in the past month. CNN, meanwhile, is now last among the cable news networks in prime time viewership.
The same ratings-bump phenomenon happened for Rush Limbaugh, whose ratings have hit record highs in some markets since the White House made him a target.
Rush's bump actually started before Democrats launched their organized campaign against him, which began during the first couple days of March with a coordinated effort to refer to him as the leader of the Republican Party. Improved ratings were reported around that time--including a 45 percent gain in New York and a 30 percent gain in LA--and were posed as evidence that the White House's campaign had backfired. But the numbers were actually from February, when tensions were mounting but the White House/Democratic messaging effort hadn't yet begun in full.
The same ratings-bump phenomenon happened for Rush Limbaugh, whose ratings have hit record highs in some markets since the White House made him a target.
Rush's bump actually started before Democrats launched their organized campaign against him, which began during the first couple days of March with a coordinated effort to refer to him as the leader of the Republican Party. Improved ratings were reported around that time--including a 45 percent gain in New York and a 30 percent gain in LA--and were posed as evidence that the White House's campaign had backfired. But the numbers were actually from February, when tensions were mounting but the White House/Democratic messaging effort hadn't yet begun in full.
Oct 27 2009, 6:30AM
Question Of The Day: Would You Vote To Break A Filibuster?
If you were a Democratic senator opposed to the public option, would you vote to break a filibuster anyway? In other words, does a health care bill deserve to be voted on by the Senate, even if you don't like it personally?
Oct 27 2009, 6:00AM
The Rundown, 10/27
After waking up in Florida and touring a solar energy center, President Obama will lend some campaign help to a Democratic candidate in need: Virginia gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds, who has had some tensions with the White House of late and is trailing his opponent. Nonetheless, Obama will try to lend some his patented campaign magic at a rally for Deeds at Old Dominion University.
The American Bankers Association continues its annual convention in downtown Chicago, complete with protesters outside. The Service Employees International Union will march against the so-called fat cats and hold a rally, demanding that the little guy no longer be run over by monacle-wielding capitalists.
The American Bankers Association continues its annual convention in downtown Chicago, complete with protesters outside. The Service Employees International Union will march against the so-called fat cats and hold a rally, demanding that the little guy no longer be run over by monacle-wielding capitalists.
Oct 27 2009, 5:30AM
The Invisible Primary, 10/27
Tracking the GOP race to 2012
Newt Gingrich said over the weekend that he'll decide in February 2011 whether or not to run for president in 2012; he'll also address the American Bankers Association's annual conference in Chicago this week; and he warned that supporting Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in New York's 23rd district special election is a "mistake"; Tim Pawlenty, coincidentally, endorsed Hoffman today; perhaps offering some advice for 2012 hopefuls, Rudy Giuliani said it was a mistake to skip Iowa in 2008; Mitt Romney sent out a fundraising email to PAC supporters, asking them to help him "spread the word" about Iran; and he'll head to Virginia this week to campaign for gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell (R) in the final days of his race.
Newt Gingrich said over the weekend that he'll decide in February 2011 whether or not to run for president in 2012; he'll also address the American Bankers Association's annual conference in Chicago this week; and he warned that supporting Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in New York's 23rd district special election is a "mistake"; Tim Pawlenty, coincidentally, endorsed Hoffman today; perhaps offering some advice for 2012 hopefuls, Rudy Giuliani said it was a mistake to skip Iowa in 2008; Mitt Romney sent out a fundraising email to PAC supporters, asking them to help him "spread the word" about Iran; and he'll head to Virginia this week to campaign for gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell (R) in the final days of his race.
Oct 27 2009, 5:00AM
Hurtling Toward 2010, 10/27
The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:
Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman scored an endorsement from Tim Pawlenty in New York's 23rd district special election; the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, meanwhile, is going after him with a new ad; a poll commissioned by The Club for Growth, which is backing Hoffman, reports Hoffman has pulled into the lead; Democrats lost a recruit--former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack (D)--in Sen. Chuck Grassley's (R) reelection race; and retiring Rep. Robert Wexler (D-FL) has endorsed a successor.
Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman scored an endorsement from Tim Pawlenty in New York's 23rd district special election; the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, meanwhile, is going after him with a new ad; a poll commissioned by The Club for Growth, which is backing Hoffman, reports Hoffman has pulled into the lead; Democrats lost a recruit--former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack (D)--in Sen. Chuck Grassley's (R) reelection race; and retiring Rep. Robert Wexler (D-FL) has endorsed a successor.
Oct 26 2009, 6:09PM
VA GOV Race's About Deeds And Democrats, Not Obama
There's more evidence tonight that the Virginia governor's race shouldn't be interpreted as a referendum on President Obama. That doesn't mean that Democrats are out of the woods. As expected, Republican Bob McDonnell has a comfortable, eleven point lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds in the latest Washington Post poll. President Obama's approval rating is 54%, which suggests that a lot of folks who went to the polls for him in 2008 won't be bothered to vote for Deeds and / or that a number of Obama voters have decided to cast their ballot for McDonnell. The former explanation finds empirical support.
Oct 26 2009, 4:53PM
"An Amazing Thing To Watch"
Harry Reid weighed in on health care today, saying he'd advance a health care bill with a public option that allows states to opt out of the program. It seemed the surest way to hold together a coalition that could support a bill. The move must mean that Reid thinks he can keep 60 members of the Democratic caucus together to support bringing the bill to the Senate floor even if some vote against the measure on final passage. We'll see where all this goes in the coming days. Can Reid hold his people together? What happens when it's married to a House bill? What comes out of the conference between the two? For those of us who thought health care either wouldn't pass or the final bill would be much more stripped down, it's been a pretty amazing thing to watch, a healthy reminder that Washington still has the capacity to surprise. Paul Krugman pushes the argument forward today by optimistically arguing that a final bill, however flawed, is likely to work--that is, it will cut costs, get most everyone insured, etc. I guess I'm skeptical again about the laws of unintended consequences and that a bill of this size will take a lot of repair work no matter how complete it seems upon passage. But passage of something big and substantial now seems much more likely than I ever expected.
Oct 26 2009, 4:40PM
Insurers: Reid's Compromise Is A Roadblock
While Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is praised by the left today for, as they're explaining it, a gutsy maneuver to get a public option to the Senate floor, health insurers are casting his plan for a public option that lets states opt-out as exactly the opposite. The public option, even with the opt-out clause, is a "roadblock" to national health care consensus, they say. Here's the statement issued this afternoon by America's Health Insurance Plans President and CEO Karen Ignagni:
Oct 26 2009, 4:27PM
Liberals Cheer For Reid's Plan
It's not a full-on public option for the whole country, but liberals say they're happy with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's announcement that he'll seek to bring a health reform bill to the floor with a public option that lets states opt out of the government-run insurance plan.
Oct 26 2009, 4:00PM
Reid's Roll Of The Dice
With Sen. Harry Reid's decision to ask the Congressional Budget Office to score a public option that states can choose to use, he's betting against the prospect of any Democratic senator filibustering the end product of health care reforms. Reid decided not to submit a public option with a trigger mechanism -- the approach favored by Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), calculating instead that he would be able to enforce party solidarity on what will certainly be an epochal vote. In order to induce at least one of those Democrats, Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND), Reid said that the final Senate bill would include non-profit co-op experiments, but he did not provide details. Liberals will interpret Reid's decision as evidence that their pressure worked. Indeed, Reid seemed to acknowledge that the power of moderates was not nearly as acute as it had been -- or that he thought it had been. He noted that, almost any way the data is sliced, Americans support a "public option" and understand what it would do.
Oct 26 2009, 3:39PM
Pawlenty Endorses Hoffman
It's the latest trend for Republicans--endorsing Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in New York's 23rd district special election--and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty is now the latest to announce his support.
Pawlenty sent the following statement today to the conservative blog RedState, which got the exclusive:
Pawlenty sent the following statement today to the conservative blog RedState, which got the exclusive:
Oct 26 2009, 3:24PM
Obesity Policy Watch: Menu Labeling Results Are In
As of March of 2008, fast food establishments in New York City have been required to post fat and calorie counts on menu boards, with the idea being that consumers would at the very least pause and think for a moment before purchasing the same donut every morning. The law was vigorously resisted by food and restaurant companies; obesity researchers didn't know whether the law would lead to a decrease in calorie consumption or to a paradoxical effect known as "portion distortion," where diners and snackers increase the total amount of food they eat to compensate or reward themselves for choosing lower-calorie items. This isn't a parochial NYC issue anymore: both House and Senate health care drafts require most restuarant menus to mandatory calorie counts. The first round of data is now in, and it is, not surprisingly, equivocal.
Oct 26 2009, 2:56PM
Ballot Initiatives To Watch On 11/3
Citizen sovereignty will be alive and well next Tuesday, as voters decide more than two dozen ballot initiatives across six states. Here's a look at the five most interesting -- and potentially most consequential -- initiatives and referenda.
Maine -- Question 1 -- A People's Veto of Gay Marriage -- This is a big one. Last year, Maine's legislature passed a law permitting same-sex marriage. "Let the states decide" doesn't really work as a defense against gay marriage when states start legalizing it, of course, and so the new rallying cry is: "let the people decide." Mainers have the chance to veto the legislature's decision; if they fail to veto it, they ratify it, becoming the first state in the nation to affirm gay marriage by direct democracy. Major interest groups on both sides have spent millions. Opponents of same-sex marriage are determined to establish a a lagoon around marriage. They're also running ads linking gay people to sex, sex education, and anti-religious orthodoxy. In general, voters tend to be less willing to repeal laws already on the books than they do to create new rights, so No on 1 -- the "no" side would preserve the law -- have a psychological edge. They've also got an edge in recent polling. Note: a referendum in Washington State would allow a people's veto of a bill that expanded domestic partner benefits.
Maine -- Question 1 -- A People's Veto of Gay Marriage -- This is a big one. Last year, Maine's legislature passed a law permitting same-sex marriage. "Let the states decide" doesn't really work as a defense against gay marriage when states start legalizing it, of course, and so the new rallying cry is: "let the people decide." Mainers have the chance to veto the legislature's decision; if they fail to veto it, they ratify it, becoming the first state in the nation to affirm gay marriage by direct democracy. Major interest groups on both sides have spent millions. Opponents of same-sex marriage are determined to establish a a lagoon around marriage. They're also running ads linking gay people to sex, sex education, and anti-religious orthodoxy. In general, voters tend to be less willing to repeal laws already on the books than they do to create new rights, so No on 1 -- the "no" side would preserve the law -- have a psychological edge. They've also got an edge in recent polling. Note: a referendum in Washington State would allow a people's veto of a bill that expanded domestic partner benefits.
Oct 26 2009, 1:58PM
White House: We're All On The Same Page Here
The White House wants you to know: President Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid are on the same page when it comes to the public option.
Reid is trying to finalize a health reform bill that will get the 60 votes needed to break a filibuster, and he's reportedly weighing the inclusion of a public-option provision that would create a government-run health insurance plan but give individual states the ability to opt out.
The White House evidently wanted it known that this does not contradict its own stance on the public option--and to reinforce its denial of a report that it was seeking to weaken the public option--as Deputy Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer posted the following statement on the WhiteHouse.gov blog last night:
Reid is trying to finalize a health reform bill that will get the 60 votes needed to break a filibuster, and he's reportedly weighing the inclusion of a public-option provision that would create a government-run health insurance plan but give individual states the ability to opt out.
The White House evidently wanted it known that this does not contradict its own stance on the public option--and to reinforce its denial of a report that it was seeking to weaken the public option--as Deputy Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer posted the following statement on the WhiteHouse.gov blog last night:
Oct 26 2009, 11:34AM
Romer: Health Reform Can Save Us From Bush
Christina Romer, the chairman of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, will push for health care reform in a speech at the Center for American Progress today, and excerpts of the speech have been released. In it, she poses health care as a long-term fiscal necessity--something government must do in order to address federal deficits.
Oct 26 2009, 11:15AM
What Happens to Health Care (and Obama) after Reform?
Today Paul Krugman asks: What happens to health care after health care reform? (He assumes -- and I agree -- that its passage is a matter of when, not if.) Krugman writes:
If the Massachusetts experience is any guide, health care reform will have broad public support once it's in place and the scare stories are proved false. The new health care system will be criticized; people will demand changes and improvements; but only a small minority will want reform reversed.I think it's more complicated than that.
Oct 26 2009, 10:55AM
Romney: Help Me Spread The Word About Iran
After taking thinly veiled jabs at the Obama administration last week during a speech to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, warning of the "unalloyed evil" of the Iranian regime, Mitt Romney used Iran today in a fundraising pitch to supporters of his Free & Strong America PAC.
"Iran represents the biggest threat to Israel and peace," Romney wrote in an email to supporters.
"Please help us spread the message about Iran, its reckless pursuit of nuclear weapons and what that means for Israel with your most generous contribution of $50, $100, $250, $500, $1,000, or even the maximum $5,000, today," he wrote.
"Iran represents the biggest threat to Israel and peace," Romney wrote in an email to supporters.
"Please help us spread the message about Iran, its reckless pursuit of nuclear weapons and what that means for Israel with your most generous contribution of $50, $100, $250, $500, $1,000, or even the maximum $5,000, today," he wrote.
Oct 26 2009, 10:10AM
Defending The White House
The White House has found at least one defender in its war against Fox News; while the rest of her media colleagues pounced on the administration's gall in attacking the organization, Politics Daily Editor in Chief Melinda Hennenberger writes:
My own reaction, on the other hand, was: Finally! And: How about saying some more true things, now that you're on such a roll?
Oct 26 2009, 6:30AM
Question Of The Day: Biggest Issue Of 2010
Aside from economic recovery, what will be the biggest issue in the 2010 midterms?
Oct 25 2009, 2:16PM
The Sunday Shows In Five Bullet Points Or Less
1. As Florida goes, so goes...Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) played the cooling saucer a bit this morning, expressing pessimism about a robust public option but did not rule out voting for one in the final analysis. Would Nelson support a filibuster cut-off knowing that the underlying bill would include a public option? Said he: "I think, reckless to say I'll support the procedure without knowing what the underlying bill consists of. And it's not put together yet. It's a draft -- it will be a draft bill some time next week, submitted the Congressional Budget Office for the review of the cost."
2. Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai thanked Sen. John Kerry for helping him make the decision to accept a run-off election, said that he would not be open to a unity government (and Dr. Abdullah Abdullah said he wouldn't join one) but would welcome advice from his challengers, and did not agree that more American troops would necessarily be viewed as occupiers.
4. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) lauded the Obama administration's preparation for the H1N1 emergency and said that one reason why more people are going to the hospital is that public awareness has been sufficiently raised.
5. Prediction: Al Hunt believes that Sen. Olympia Snowe's vote will be critical to final passage and that she'll provide cover for moderate Democrats and even some Senate Republicans. And Newt Gingrich says he'll decide about 2012...in February of 2011.
2. Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai thanked Sen. John Kerry for helping him make the decision to accept a run-off election, said that he would not be open to a unity government (and Dr. Abdullah Abdullah said he wouldn't join one) but would welcome advice from his challengers, and did not agree that more American troops would necessarily be viewed as occupiers.
That is a legitimate concern, and that has to be taken very much into consideration, and that's why I emphasized two very important things. The arrival of forces must enhance the sense of protection of the Afghan people, and must give protection to the Afghan people. It must not be a capture and kill pursuit of the Taliban, it must be one that provides protection to the country, and must also lead to the enhancement of the abilities of the Afghan military and security forces. Therefore they have to come as liberators as they did in 2002 and not otherwise3. Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) predicted that President Obama would have "trouble with the American people" if he sends 40,000 more troops to Afghanistan. Sen. Chuck Schumer said that "leader Reid is ... leaning towards ... putting a state opt-out public option in the bill."
4. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) lauded the Obama administration's preparation for the H1N1 emergency and said that one reason why more people are going to the hospital is that public awareness has been sufficiently raised.
5. Prediction: Al Hunt believes that Sen. Olympia Snowe's vote will be critical to final passage and that she'll provide cover for moderate Democrats and even some Senate Republicans. And Newt Gingrich says he'll decide about 2012...in February of 2011.
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