Just four days before the election, Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava abandoned her campaign for the congressional seat in New York's 23rd Congressional district. Why? "It was time to do the right thing, which is to release the Republican County chairs, they've stood by me this entire time, and let them do what's best for the Republican Party," she told a local TV station. A series of polls showed Scozzafava in third place, well behind Democrat Bill Owens and, suddenly, Conservative Doug Hoffman, who had stolen about half of Scozzafava's base. Where do the rest of her votes go? CW says that most go to Hoffman, but I'm with Jonathan Martin: I think half go to Democrat Bill Owens or they stay home. GOP registration exceeds Democratic registration by nearly 50,000. This is a Republican district that is likely to remain Republican, -- only significantly more conservative than it's been.
Hoffman has harnessed several shoots of energy, including anti-incumbent sentiment, conservative opposition to liberal Republicans, and the iatropic excitement that's generated when conservative activists suddenly coalesce around a candidate.
Republicans will derive two lessons from the results of this race. One is that the activist base of the party is becoming increasingly powerful in the one area that had eluded them: candidate selection. Other conservative Republicans may now feel more comfortable if they decide to challenge incumbents in primaries. Democrats, believing that Republicans will conservatize-themselves to death demographically, will take this as a positive trend for the long-term. The second lesson is that populist, regular guy candidates win in supposedly "moderate" districts.
The race had become a proxy for debates about the future of the party. Since the situation in NY 23 is so unusual, it may be folly to squeeze out more meaning than's already present.
Marc Ambinder doesn't know what the word "iatropic" means.
Neither do I.
I just looked it up. I have no idea what Ambinder is trying to say. Sure looks smart, though.
they're manic & delusional & need to see a doctor? But . . . delusional manic types generally aren't motivated by these symptoms to go to a doctor so it still doesn't work. yeah, he thought it meant something else, I have no idea what. perhaps priapic?
If any Scozzafava or Owens supporters want to do something, organize local groups to go to Hoffman's appearances and press him on these points on video. The policies he appears to support would have the impact of raising the taxes on his supporters, and those supporters have a right to know about that. (And, if you're a Democrat and you think his position is OK, congratulate him on having such a "liberal" position on that issue.)
This is great news for John McCain
Usually, when political writers such as William Buckley use either arcane or sesquipedalian verbiage, the meaning can be inferred or searched out. What, sir, do you mean by iatropic? Over at balloon.juice, some believe that you meant iatrotropic. To a physician, this would be the "chief complaint."
In context, IMHO, this makes no sense. Marc, tell me this is a typo or give us a justification. Please tell Andrew, who passed on your blog, to kindly pass your thoughts on to us eating at the Daily Dish.
Most important takeaway from this, I think, is what it means for 2012, not 2010 as the candiates for the latter are in place for the most part. 2012 is a different story. Scozzafava's exit means that social issues are still very salient for GOP voters regardless of which region of the country they are in. The GOP nominee will emerge from the 2012 primary against gay marriage, against abortion, and probably with at least one other position that lines up with the Religious Right. As of right now it is just inconceivable that the 2012 primary will be anything other than a contest of who has the most neaderthalic, paranoid views of Obama, the UN, and social policy.
Unless the GOP gets clobbered in 2010, the 2012 GOP primary will look like a campaign for office in another country. Smart Republicans urgently need to get their rank-and-file back into the regular world. They have been very good at setting up their own think tanks, magazines, colleges, churches, radio shows, and TV networks. In fact, they've been too good.
The GOP voters are only for a candidate who is completely against everything; "Just say No!" and "Abstinence for Everything!" could be his campaign slogans.
CCComment, I respectfully disagree. What got the ball rolling for Hoffman was funding and commercials from the Club for Growth, a conservative/libertarian outfit that focuses entirely on taxes, regulation, etc. - economic issues. Scozzafava is pro-stimulus, which would have placed her alone among her House Republican colleagues. She's also pro-Card Check, another anomaly for a putative Republican. Overall, her views on economic issues are to the left of a good many moderate Democrat politicians in the House & Senate.
More generally, the energy of the Right for the past year has been focused on economic issues, and their relation to liberty generally. The Tea Parties and rallies in DC were about taxes, and the Democrat stimulus and health reform plans, not about abortion or gay marriage. McDonnell is clobbering Deeds in Virgina, and Christie is competitive with Corzine in the normally blue state of New Jersey, because of their focus on economic issues.
This is a dead-on accurate assessment of what's happening in NY-23 and around the country.
I can only assume that the inability (or refusal) of so many people to see this is due either to their myopia or their fear.
Or dogmatic stupidity.
Iatropic means illness caused by medical treatment. Iatrotropic means the presenting complaint, i.e. the illness for which you sought the treatment.
While the latter makes no sense, the former could, though someone smarter than me will have to figure it out.
Other way around actually.
Iatropic = the need to see a physician or the symptoms that lead you to do so.
Iatrogenic = symptoms/injuries caused by a physicians care.
iatrogenic excitement is nonsensical. I hope Ambinder meant to use another word.
Ratface,
You are getting close. However, I still believe that iatropic is not a real word unless Marc claims otherwise. The correctly derived word from the Greek roots would result in a still obscure, if not neologistic, word, iatrotropic. In English, that could be better expressed by "why did you come to the doctor?"
It is really time for Marc to either enlighten us or tell us that he was psytropically/psychotropically impaired on Hallween/Halloween day.
"It was time to do the right thing, which is to release the Republican County chairs, they've stood by me this entire time, and let them do what's best for the Republican Party,"
I would think they'd already done that when they put their support behind her in the first place. I'm saddened those concerned were willing to cave to demands for some arbitrary level of "pure Republican blood" in the candidate.
In a way, NY-23 is a bit similar to the soul searching the Dems did post -2000. At that time, the argument was over if Dems needed to move to the right, or reassert their progressive values. With Howard Dean replacing Terry McAuliffe as head of the Dems, the choice was made to move left -- and present a clear choice to voters. Events lined up to make that choice a good one.
Republican establishment in NY-23 seemed to make the political calculation that echoes people like Ambinder and Sullivan: we need "moderate" Republicans (which in their mind means mostly like Democrats). Hence Scozzafava.
The grass roots of the party is sending the message to the establishment: you lost control of congress because you had a bunch of conservatives that were spending like Democrats. Lets try to elect a guy who runs on bedrock conservative principals: small government, free markets, individual liberty, strong national defense. Note the lack of social issues in that message.
Some of these comments are hilarious!