Analogizing races in politics is like eating pizza slices. Someone has too many; others are left hungry for at least one more slice.
The analog of NY-23 that comes to mind is the Florida GOP Senate primary, and this shows the promise and the limits of analogies. Like NY-23, conservatives have been protesting the GOP establishment's decision to rally around not-so-conservative but ostensibly popular Gov. Charlie Crist at the expense of challenger Marco Rubio. Rubio, like Hoffman, has been winning grassroots straw polls. Rubio, like Hoffman, has run as a populist conservative. Crist has some inherent vulnerabilities that, thanks to Rubio and to an aggressive Florida press corps, are beginning to be exploited. Similarities end, though: Rubio is a professional politician. He's crisper on the hustings. He knows the issues of the state. He's a plausible governor, having been mentored by Jeb Bush, Crist's predecessor. There are no third-party dynamics here, just a bunch of conservative activists who don't want Charlie Crist to be their senator. Late word from Florida tonight: Crist's popularity has dropped. The tag of "Empty Chair Charlie" -- referring to what pollster Tom Eldon calls his "uneventful" three years in office as well as, flirtatiously, to Crist's reputed intellectual fogginess.
Still, Rubio might be the first beneficiary of the Hoffman era of Republican politics -- an era that is inhospitable to moderate Republicans and to Republicans selected by the establishment.
One lesson that conservatives shouldn't take from the Hoffman example: running unprepared candidates who don't know their districts very well is the way to harness populace energy. That's not true. Hoffman is an exception; unless the GOP is prepared to descend into its Bush twilight anti-intellectualism again, they'll need to recruit smart candidates who, as one Florida GOPer says, can read the New York Times even though he disagrees with it. This is too serious a time for shallow candidates.
Also, as Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal notes, DeDe Scozzafava's supporters give President Obama a 64% approval rating. A lot of independent and Republican women will probably stay home in NY-23 on Tuesday.
In any event, the loud snapping sound you heard this morning was the skip of the stylus, as the sound we political analysts used to predict the future abruptly changed. Party committees -- beware!
.....This is over complicating the politics. Rubio may be all you say but in the sense that he's the expression of a set of dynamics, and fissiparous dynamics, that are currently at play in the GOP, he's not very different from Hoffman. He's the hard right, anti GOP establishment, tea bagging guy. We're going to see lots more of them and while some may be glossy and smooth like Rubio and others less so the outcomes will be the same. The Republican coalition is fracturing, it's going to be messy and prolonged (god knows what happens if Obama springs an immigration reform bill on them next year)so Democrats really just need to sit back and enjoy the show.
Hilarious fail. Rubio and Hoffman are most likely as "anti-establishment" as Hannah Montana in a black leather jacket. Rubio's immigration stance and Hoffman's immigration stance both leave me scratching my head, but one thing is clear: neither are Tancredos. If they were like the latter that would indeed be bucking the corrupt GOP/Dem/Beltway establishment; instead, they're establishment-approved.
P.S. The way to get all the pizza slices is to get in early, spreading yourself out and guarding your territory so the beta males have to wait their turn.
Rubio and Hoffmann were/are establishment approved?......still existing in your alternate universe I see......it's only of academic interest to me as a spectator at ringside watching the Republican unravelling but there's no doubt Crist and Scozza were/are the establishment backed Republican candidates. Why would you want to deny this....it's a matter of public record. I'm not sure what Tancredo (who is and alway was an irrelevance)or your pizza metaphors have to do with the basic reality of what's happening in Goperland.
The 24 Ahead character never has anything particularly interesting to say, yet he continually spams this blog, the Reason Hit & Run blog, and other blogs, for the purpose of leaving links to his utterly worthless blog.
I went there. Once.
Yeah, the pizza analogy doesn't work. But if you want to see the easy historic parallel, just look at the late 70s; the parallels between Obama and Carter are striking.
It's fairly clear at this point that the Dems are going to get slaughtered next year and unless things change drastically the real fight for the presidency in 2012 will be in the Republican primary. Because of this, conservatives don't feel like they have to compromise, just like when they decided to go with Reagan against a weak Carter (or when the Dems tacked left and decided not to compromise with a centrist Clinton when running against Bush's legacy).
"It's fairly clear at this point that the Dems are going to get slaughtered next year and unless things change drastically the real fight for the presidency in 2012 will be in the Republican primary."
.....Psycho would be it. Where do you get these weird ideas from? Democrat generic congressional approval is several points ahead of the Republicans on the Pollster average. Obama's approval on Pollster's average is 56.1%. The Republican approvals are in the twenties and when you get into the cross tabs outside of the south the results are absolutely horrific. You have civil wars going on in the GOP in two major election contests with the official Republican candidate in one of them just throwing her support to the Democrat. The current Republican field for 2012 is a desert. And the Democrats are going to get slaughtered?
The real fight for the presidency in 2012 will be in the Republican primary. Because of this, conservatives don't feel like they have to compromise.
This should be the unifying slogan of the Republicans from here on out: "Purity! No compromise! Purge the impure!" It will absolutely guarantee victory in all races everywhere.
It's amazing how many people actually know of what Carter was like. Carter was a man who was a horrible public speaker and frankly, wasn't exactly involved in wars. Obama's probably the greatest speaker of our generation and is involved in two wars, with one winding down and probably ramping up in another. The left is already pissed at him for that, so before you start analogizing, LBJ would actually be the more apt comparison.
First of all, Desert One & the Iranian Hostage Crisis, the Panama Canal controversy, Begin-Sadat, Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan, the Mariel Boatlifts, Nicaragua, and the US Soviet Arms negotiations, are not exactly a ham sandwich.
Second, I think Carter was better, as a communicator, during the '76 campaign than he was once in the White House.
the Hoffman era of Republican politics
The use of that phrase right just negated the value of your entire post.
One lesson that conservatives shouldn't take from the Hoffman example: running unprepared candidates who don't know their districts very well is the way to harness populace energy. That's not true. Hoffman is an exception; unless the GOP is prepared to descend into its Bush twilight anti-intellectualism again, they'll need to recruit smart candidates who, as one Florida GOPer says, can read the New York Times even though he disagrees with it. This is too serious a time for shallow candidates.
This bit of smug, presumptive moralizing just made me throw-up.