Yesterday, I offered my first impressions about why Republican Bob
McDonnell is so handily beating Democrat Creigh Deeds in Virginia. Here
are some additional lessons that Republicans and Democrats are learning.
1. Culture Warriorism Don't Work.
At least not in this environment. Deeds's internal polling showed that
the number one issue, by far, for voters across state but in Northern
Virginia in particular, was the economy, jobs and infrastructure
improvement. This is no different than in previous elections, but the
salience of these issues were all the more acute. Virginia remains the
best place to do business (says CNBC) and its unemployment rate is the lowest in the nation. No surprise that Bob McDonnell focused his
ads, like a laser beam, on these issues without referring to the
incumbent.
2. Don't Bite The Hands That Feed You. Deeds's campaign was
upset at national Democrats who endorsed Terry McAuliffe during the
primaries and resisted their offers of help early on. This help might
have given Deeds some momentum in the early summer, when his
campaign went virtually silent. True, there was some bad blood between
Deeds's campaign and key statewide Democrats and strategists in
Virginia because Deeds believed that these Dems played a hand in
helping to recruit Terry McAuliffe. True. Deeds should have gotten over
this.
3. Don't Go Silent When Your Opponent Is Being Friendly. Bob
McDonnell's campaign dropped two great biographical spots in June, with
virtually no alternative framing attempt from Creigh Deeds. This is the
period where Deeds's numbers began to drop.
4. Let Your Opponent's Campaign Help YOU with Your Ads -- What
this means is that if your opponent runs ads claiming that he's a
fiscal conservative who plans to simultaneously cut spending and
cut taxes AND invest in infrastructure, AND if jobs and infrastructure
are the top issues, you call the opponent out on those claims. Bob
McDonnell was vulnerable here. Instead, Deeds's campaign decided to
exploit the admittedly exploitable anti-modernist thesis that McDonnell
had written as a grad student, which produced some temporary gains but
floundered and never set in.
5. Don't be the Angry Guy. Howard Dean suffered a little bit
from this problem in Iowa in 2003. At a time when voters are in an
explicitly anti-Washington, anti-politician mood, it's usually not wise
to play the heavy. It's better to play the happy warrior. McDonnell did
this perfectly. Deeds did it too late, waiting until a month ago before
he really began trying to rebrand himself.
6. Don't Believe In Magic. Folks close to the Deeds campaign say
that some Deeds advisers harbor a magical belief that Obama Democrats
would turn out for Deeds...without giving them a reason to do so.
7. Don't Believe Everything Marc Ambinder writes. Yesterday, I
wrote that the Deeds campaign didn't try hard enough to prevent Sheila
Johnson, the BET co-founder, from endorsing McDonnell. I was wrong. They
did. Johnson has never liked Deeds. And Deeds will probably do better
in the African American community than people anticipate next week.







So far, it looks like Deeds was successful by default. I suggest the most of the DEM pols are comfortable w/a Republican. It sets up a good grid for the National election where one can blame the Rep Gov for unemployment, etc.
Thanks, Marc, and this is frankly a better, more informative post than your first take on the Deeds implosion yesterday.
And it confirms my view that Deeds is crashing entirely because of his own campaign failures, not because of any "national environment."
Stu Rothenberg today got on the "national environment" bandwagon with a wholly unsupported claim that were Dubya still Prez, Deeds would be winning right now.
Rothenberg is wrong.
Chuck Todd points out all the time, and has done so this fall re VA-Gov and NJ-Gov, that candidates and campaigns matter. And he's right.
Were Bush still President, and just as unpopular as he ended up, Deeds still would be losing because he ran a bad campaign. The anti-GOP sentiment would help him with the turnout model, but ultimately you have to run a competent campaign, and if you don't you lose. McDonnell has run a perfect campaign, and even when in trouble his response is always pitch-perfect; he just never loses his balance. Deeds never had any balance.
And, Marc, your ihformation above just fills in the blanks on some of the things Deeds did wrong.