Unless you're beloved by conservative Christians, don't bother campaigning in Iowa. That's one lesson learned by some strategists allied with several potential 2012 presidential candidates. Others see it differently. The question applies most to Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) and Ex-Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA).
The congealing conventional wisdom is that if ex-Govs. Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin run for president, the best way to dilute their support is to cede them the Iowa precinct caucuses, which are dominated by social conservatives voting on social conservative issues.
For this strategy to work, the candidate would have to set the expectations bar quite low and publicly admit, very early on, that Huckabee and Palin are likely to win. The candidate has to accomplish this without alienating social conservatives. (Mitt Romney won't attribute his loss in Iowa to anti-Mormon bias, but plenty of his advisers are willing to go there.)
Pawlenty's main strategic challenge would be New Hampshire -- figuring out how to defeat the Romney machine there. It might not be hard; since there won't be a Democratic primary, as many as 60,000 independents could decide to vote Republican. Appealing to these independents on economic issues -- and comforting them on social issues -- is the test.
From this point on: collect delegates. Huckabee or Palin -- assuming each runs -- will become the default opponent of whoever wins New Hampshire -- assuming the calendar as we know it doesn't much change. Romney has an advantage: money. Pawlenty is putting together a solid fundraising team, but as John McCain learned, a great fundraising strategy means bupkis unless supporters are engaged. Republican low-dollar and grassroots fundraising will be critical. All four potential candidates seem to acknowledge this reality.
Neither Romney nor Pawlenty has decided to run for president yet, and there are advisers to both men who disagree about skipping Iowa. Mounting an Obama-like campaign that brings new Republicans into the process is one way to overturn the verdict of history. Huckabee and Palin could split the social conservative vote, and center-right candidates, like Bob Dole and George W. Bush, have been able to exploit divisions on the right-right. Remember, though, that the GOP caucuses are much simpler than the Democratic ones: they're tantamount to a precinct-by-precinct straw poll. No "viability threshold" or any of that nonsense.
That must be why Obama did so well in Iowa, right? Romney was outed in Iowa, and the people in Iowa saw through Romneys chameleon politics. Mitt pulls anti-Mormon statements when people question exactly what Mitt believes in. It is hard to tell, with Romney because he is an insincere candidate, and virtually glowed insincerity in Iowa.
Romney will stay with NH, where he owns a home, and has had plenty of time to salt his own people. The other states for Romney will depend on whether Romney is able to plug his people in from Brin, and his past Presidential campaign.
I live in Iowa and opposed Romney, not because of his Mormon belief, but because he ran Mass. as a liberal(probably had to, but that is not an excuse). He had what I believe was a fake pro-life conversion. His flip-flopping on the abortion issue to try to win the base was seen right through. He might as well skip Iowa, we know him well, let him go and try to fool the rest of the nation.
It's hilarious that Romney, the conservative alternative to McCain in '08, is now the de facto moderate for '12, the guy who's gonna win primaries by drawing in independents. I don't know what the funniest part is- Romney's shameless flip-flopping, the Republican Party's rightward sprint, or the ease with which our news media adopts such a narrative. But they all contribute...
Subject: Huckabee will win the 2012 Republican Presidential Primaries
I. Early States Prediction
IA - Huckabee easily cruises to victory with strong conservatives.
NH - Huckabee wins, his hit TV show airs in neighboring state NY.
NV - Huckabee wins, California influences NV to go with Huckabee.
SC - Huckabee wins, neighboring states FL, GA, NC influence SC.
Sub-total = Huckabee pulls in all 25 Electoral Votes
II. Small States Prediction
OH - Huckabee easily wins Ohio, top 5 Huckabee State in America.
MI - Huckabee easily wins Michigan, economy down turns to Huckabee.
FL - Huckabee easily wins, top 5 Huckabee State in America.
GA - Huckabee easily wins, Top 5 Huckabee State in America.
IL - Huckabee wins, Obama's home state turns to Huckabee.
PA - Huckabee wins, both Ohio & NY influence PA to go Huckabee.
NY - Huckabee wins, home state for Huckabee hit TV show.
Sub-total = Huckabee pulls in all 148 Electoral Votes
III. Large States Prediction
TX - Huckabee easily wins Texas, top Huckabee State in America.
AR - Huckabee easily wins his homestate of Arkansas.
WA - Huckabee wins Washington, strong showing of fans there.
MO - Huckabee easily wins Missouri, neighboring states AR.
AL - Huckabee easily wins Alabama, southern state.
KY - Huckabee easily wins Kentucky, southern state, farming.
OK - Huckabee easily wins Oklahoma, neighbor states TX, AR
KA - Huckabee easily wins Kansas, neighbor state TX, AR, MO
LA - Huckabee wins Louisana as he did in 2008.
Plus other large states
Sub-total = Huckabee pulls in 97 Electoral Votes just these states alone.
Grand Total = 270 Electoral Votes, enough for Huckabee to win 2012.
Mike Huckabee captured 278 Electoral votes just in 2008, with his skyrocketing popularity and his energetic fan base that just keeps on expanding 24/7 watch for Huckabee to pull in a landslide victory in 2012 as the great Ronald Reagan did in 1980 comeback.
Check it out for yourself, just google the words: Huckabee Fan Club
Thousands of Huckabee Fans from 50 States just surpass the 400 county milestone to set a new record. The extensive network of Huckabee Fans just keeps on growing around the clock. The momentum is building for Mike Huckabee's Presidential comeback win in 2012.
No doubt about it, Romney has his problems and carries political baggage. But the reality is there was definite anti-Mormon sentiment expressed by not only some Iowa voters but also Hackabee campaign staff, volunteers and even the candidate himself. There is an excellent book out about Romney's failed campaign titled, A Different God? Mitt Romney, the Religious Right and the Mormon Question. It's worth reading -- readers will be amazed at the blatant bigotry in the last election.
I am a Mormon and I wouldn't vote for Romney. Why is it that his religion is even a question. Why don't we just label every other politician by their religion. I guess there are no hypocritical or corrupt Catholic or Baptist politicians. I wonder what church Nancy Pelosi or Barney Frank attend. Romney is a liberal politician who represents big money and flip flops on issues. He lacks sincerity and it is obvious he tells people what he thinks they want to hear; sound familiar? He doesn't represent the Mormon Church or working class Americans. In today's world, the only reason anyone wants to be elected to a national office is money or power. He already has the money, so that only leaves power.
Romney's got the most measured foreign policy alternatives of the potential candidates, and he was right on the economy months before anyone else (Wall Street Op-ed regarding the auto industry bail out). So far he's the best looking candidate out there as far as policy goes. Palin and Huck may have the social issues, but policy issues may be more important in 2012.