The Atlantic Politics Channel: November 2009 Archives

November 2009 Archives

Nov 23 2009, 11:03AM

The Best Picture Of The 2008 Electorate To Date

by Marc Ambinder

It's taken about a year, but thanks to new Census numbers and to Project Vote, we now have the most accurate picture of who voted, who didn't vote, and how the voting patterns compare to previous elections. The highlights: 64% of the 204 million voting-age Americans voted, up about 6 million in number and 4 percentage points from 2004. Historically underrepresented groups made gains in this election. Non-whites made up more than 90% of the increase in the total number of voters. The authors conclude that had non-whites voted at the same percentage as whites, more than 5 million more votes would have been cast in 2008. The study, by Douglas Hess and Jody Herman, finds that had voters under 30 voted at the same rates as their counterparts over 30, more than 7 million additional ballots would have been cast.

Nov 23 2009, 8:11AM

Question Of The Day: Communion

Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-RI) says that Bishop Thomas J. Tobin has forbidden him from receiving communion because he supports abortion rights. Is this the right thing for bishops to do, given the church's views on abortion, or an unnecessary political statement?

Nov 22 2009, 2:13PM

Did The Chinese Watch Obama's Town Hall?

by Marc Ambinder

Ten days before President Obama arrived in China, the U.S. government's massive advance party was upped by one: a member of the White House New Media team began to work with the U.S. embassy and Shanghai University officials on a November 16 town hall meeting where 400 pre-selected students would participate. The White House was under no illusion that the give-and-take would be free from the red pen of Chinese television and internet censors. The town hall was not broadcast on Chinese television.

But neither did they wish to pass up an opportunity to communicate directly with the Chinese people, a White House official said. This was the fourth iteration of the White House new media team's global engagement. It started in March with the president's YouTube message on Norwuz. Then came the president's town hall meeting with students in, Turkey, where the White House quietly partnered with a Turkish social media firm to promote viewing among young Turks. White House outreach for the president's speech to the Muslim world in Egypt was similarly extensive, and it included plenty of pre-speech negotiations with Arab television networks and internet sites.

The China gig was tricky, given the practicalities of Internet communication in China and the reality of a very sensitive host government. But something seems to have worked: of about 200,000 live stream requests, 120,000 were from China. (67,000 were from the United States.) The number of peak concurrent users suggested that there was no sudden drop-off or bottleneck, which would have suggested a concerted censorship effort by the Chinese government.

Nov 21 2009, 8:30AM

Question Of The Weekend: How Important Is The Vote?

How important is Saturday's Senate vote on health care reform, given that a "yes" would simply mean that debate starts nine days later, and that "no" would mean health care fails its first test and Reid is probably forced to change parts of his bill?

UPDATE: The procedural motion passed, 60-39.

Nov 20 2009, 2:26PM

Cleaning the Inbox on Fridays

by Marc Ambinder

Pretty interesting polling numbers for Sen. Blanche Lincoln and John McCain. Throw in the trouble brewing in SC for Lindsay Graham, and that poll after poll, and Tim Geinther's pounding on The Hill, shows people think government is helping Wall Street and big corporations and not them, and you have wonder when the Democratic unity damn breaks wide open and everyone runs for cover.

The Four Holdouts -- Lieberman, Lincoln, Mary Landreiu and Ben Nelson. The most compelling Saturday night drama since ... the Golden Girls. Actually, Ben Nelson is out. He's actually in. He'll vote to allow debate to proceed. And since it's been revealed that Landreiu wants Harry Reid to raise money for her next month, let's presume she's a "yes" vote. And Lieberman ... is Lieberman.

A victory for Ron Wyden: a version of his "Free Choice" amendment will appear in the Senate health care bill. Under the legislation now, Americans "with employer-provided coverage, whose income is below 400 percent of the federal poverty level and whose premiums are between 8 and 9.8 percent of their total income will be exempt from having to purchase health coverage but will not be able to access the exchange to qualify for government assistance to purchase insurance. " Wyden's amendment means that these folks can use their employer health subsidies -- currently tax free -- to buy an insurance plan in the exchange.

This: well -- it's been a month of sausage making, and as we learned in July, when the sausage is in the oven, Obama can't escape the taint of partisanship that Americans seem to be rebelling against.

Nov 20 2009, 2:21PM

For Your Entertainment: Zolitics

by Marc Ambinder

From the political consultants who brought you Rick Santorum and Tom Ridge, a behind-the-scenes moc-u-mentary of American politics: Zolitics presents Moving Numbers. I like to call it Rick Brabender gone wild. Love the Frank Luntz in-jokes.

Moving Numbers Episode 2: "Whatever It Takes" from Zolitics on Vimeo.

Nov 20 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: Will It Pass

The Senate will vote on Majority Leader Harry Reid's health care package on Saturday. Will it pass? If it doesn't, how big of a setback will it be to Democratic health reform?

Nov 20 2009, 6:00AM

The Rundown, 11/20

It's Friday! The day that Congress goes home for a nice, long weekend of reconnoitering with constituents and...except there's a health care bill to consider. The Senate will stay in DC today--and tomorrow--for a Saturday vote on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's health care bill.

In the meantime, Democratic leaders will be busy trying to secure votes from the moderate members of their caucus. Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) has said she will announce today whether or not she'll vote to close debate and bring the bill to an up-or-down vote.

Nov 20 2009, 5:30AM

The Invisible Primary, 11/20

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Bobby Jindal is giving $10,000 donated to him by an accused fraudster to a victims' compensation fund; a source tells the New York Daily News that Rudy Giuliani wants to run for Senate--as a possible stepping stone to a 2012 bid; Sara Palin drew more than 750 people to her book-signing event in Noblesville, IN; the Army will keep media out of a Palin book-signing event at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, fearing the event will turn into an anti-Obama protest; Palin got a 70 percent favorablity rating *among Republicans in a Fox/Opinion Dynamics poll, higher than the other GOP hopefuls included; and Mike Huckabee said he thinks some GOP attacks on President Obama--over more trivial matters--are "deplorable" and "shameful."

*This detail was omitted when the post was first published.

Nov 20 2009, 5:00AM

Hurtling Toward 2010, 11/20

The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:

Rudy Giuliani will run for Senate, according to the New York Daily News; Marco Rubio has pulled to within 10 percentage points of Gov. Charlie Crist (R) in Florida's Senate race, Daily Kos/Research 2000 reports; Doug Hoffman is accusing ACORN and labor unions of tampering with the NY-23 election that saw him lose to Democrat Bill Owens, seeking to raise money for recount efforts; the National Republican Congressional Committee will hit Reps. Earl Pomeroy (D-ND), Vic Snyder (D-AR), and John Spratt (D-SC) with TV ads for their "yes" votes on the House health care bill; and The Hill lists the top seven primaries in Congress.

Nov 19 2009, 3:30PM

How Important Is Abortion To Health Reform Opponents?

Abortion isn't the main reason most opponents of Democratic health care reform dislike the proposals currently before Congress, Pew finds in a new survey. In fact, only three percent of opponents listed abortion as their main reason for opposing them, though 56 percent of those opponents list abortion as a "major reason" they oppose Democratic reforms.

It's important to note, however, that the House and Senate bills deal with abortion differently, whereas Pew lumped them together, asking respondents why they opposed "the health care proposals being discussed in Congress."

Nov 19 2009, 1:34PM

November's Unemployment Rate in 2010 (...and 2012)

by Derek Thompson

The OECD has new estimates about America's GDP and unemployment rate over the next two years. Good news: Their GDP projections grew by 150%. Bad news: They still project growth will be 50% lower than during the 1984 recovery. Free Exchange pulls out the key stats. I have some thoughts toward 2010 and 2012.

Nov 19 2009, 1:32PM

Geithner, Republican Congressman Clash Over Bailout

by Derek Thompson

Treasury Sec. Tim Geithner, speaking at a Joint Economic Hearing, got into a quite the tizzy with Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX). On one level, it's just two guys yelling at each other. On another level, it's a glimpse at why an idea as basic as "We should reform our profligate banking system" can break down when you run it through the political sausage factory.

Nov 19 2009, 12:53PM

The Sarah Palin Quiz

Test your knowledge of Sarah Palin (your Palin-tology, if you will) with a new quiz we've posted here at The Atlantic, put together by Paul Slansky. Just to give you a taste, here's the first question:

1) Complete Sarah Palin's quote: "If God had not intended for us to eat animals, how come ___________________"

    a) frankfurters are called hot dogs?
    b) He made them out of meat?
    c) they taste so darn good, especially moose. Sometimes I think if I could only eat one
    food for the rest of my life it would be moose.

Nov 19 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: Obama's Capital

Have President Obama and the Democratic Party completely exhausted their political capital on health care? After health care is done (assuming it one day will be) will they have the momentum left to enact energy, education, or immigration reforms?

Nov 19 2009, 6:00AM

The Rundown, 11/19

It'll be a day of digestion in the Senate today: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) showed his final health care bill to moderate Democrats yesterday, and, with details out, the whole of Capitol Hill will be ruminating on it.

Senators will also get to gestate the CBO's score of Reid's bill, which--and this is pretty good news for Reid--says his proposal will spend cut the deficit by $127 billion over the next 20 years and spend $849 billion.

America will also finally have its president back. It's been a while since Barack Obama has been on U.S. soil, but he'll return from his Asia swing today, flying from South Korea to Alaska, then back to the Lower 48...and finally back to the White House around 7 p.m....at which point he will probably want to rest.

Nov 19 2009, 5:30AM

The Invisible Primary, 11/19

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Sarah Palin's book tour launched yesterday with a signing event in Grand Rapids, Michigan, and it'll continue today with stops in Fort Wayne and Noblesville, Indiana; Levi Johnston will not be attending the Palins' Thanksgiving dinner; former McCain aide Nicolle Wallace said the claims in Palin's book are "fiction"; President Obama would beat Gov. Tim Pawlenty 49-40 in the latter's home state of Minnesota, if the 2012 presidential election were held today, according to a St. Cloud University poll; and Newt Gingrich was in Baltimore for another stop of his education tour with Al Sharpton and Education Secretary Arne Duncan.

Nov 19 2009, 5:00AM

Hurtling Toward 2010, 11/19

The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:

Former Ambassador to Latvia Cathy Bailey might jump into the GOP Senate primary in Kentucky; a Public Policy Polling survey has Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan leading Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) 45-44 in Missouri's Senate race; independent candidate Tim Cahill is helping out Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (D) in his reelection race; the GOP Senate primary in New Hampshire figures to be a tough one; and House GOP leaders pressed their colleagues to put up some more cash to help the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Nov 18 2009, 4:50PM

Will The House Play Hardball With State Secrets?

by Marc Ambinder

Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee are preparing for a confrontation with the White House over the state secrets privilege. Rep. Jerrold Nadler (R-NY), the chair of the Judiciary Subcommittee on the Constitution, Civil Rights and Civil Liberties, has called the privilege's expansion during the Bush administration "the greatest threat to liberty in this country."

At an academic conference in Washington today, Nadler noted that the Patriot Act reauthorization, which the White House supports, might come to the floor at the same time as House legislation on the state secrets privilege, about which the White House has been publicly silent -- and privately skeptical.

Nov 18 2009, 4:31PM

Six Choice Moments Of Sen. Robert Byrd's Career

Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV) will soon turn 92, and he's the longest serving member of Congress in U.S. history. Over at The Atlantic Wire, John Hudson has six memorable moments of Byrd's career, including his rant against Michael Vick, his taking on of Code Pink (he says he opposed the war "before you were ever born"), his use of the N word to refer to white people in a pitch for racial solidarity, falling asleep on the Senate floor, his telling of why he was wrong on civil rights in 1964, and his speech urging Congress not to authorize the invasion of Iraq.

Nov 18 2009, 3:30PM

Setting The Stage For An Intense GOP Primary In New Hampshire

by Marc Ambinder

Sean Mahoney, a Republican national committeeman and publisher, said today that he won't enter the primary for retiring Sen. Judd Gregg's open seat. Mahoney's departure statement left open the possibility that he might endorse one of the two remaining Republicans -- Manchester lawyer Ovide LaMontagne or Attorney General Kelly Ayotte. "As I considered this race, my number one priority was to make sure that there was a candidate in the race who supported my conservative principles," Mahoney said, according to the Union Leader. "After listening to the announced candidates at various forums and meetings I am confident that we'll have a true conservative leading the charge to keep the seat in Republican hands." The Union Leader reports, however, that Mahoney will NOT endorse.

Nov 18 2009, 8:14AM

The Real Intelligence Wars: Oversight And Access

by Marc Ambinder

For months, the CIA director, Leon Panetta, and the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), Adm. Dennis Blair (ret.), fought an intense and acrimonious turf battle over covert action oversight and access to White House officials. Last week, the two men agreed to a truce when they signed a classified memorandum brokered by the National Security Adviser, James Jones.

Through intermediaries, Panetta and Blair crossed swords over who should appoint senior intelligence representatives in foreign countries. Now, through interviews, new details are emerging about other, more sensitive conflicts between the two men and their agencies, including which agency is responsible for oversight of the CIA's controversial and classified Predator drone program.

Nov 18 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: Palin's Book Vs. Obama In China

Sarah Palin's media tour has dominated the news for the past two days, while President Obama's trip to Asia has seemingly taken a backseat. Does this say anything about either of them? Should the White House be jealous?

Nov 18 2009, 6:00AM

The Rundown, 11/18

Get ready for (potentially) a big day for health care: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid could unveil his final health care bill today, as he awaits more analysis from the Congressional Budget Office. Once the CBO releases a score of the bill, the all-important number will help determine its fate.

And, these days, not a day goes by without Sarah Palin news: today she'll launch her book-signing tour with an appearance at a Barnes & Noble in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

Nov 18 2009, 5:30AM

The Invisible Primary, 11/18

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Sarah Palin's book finally hit shelves, to more fanfare and commentary than can even really be explained; she helped the Republican Governors Association get a discount on several thousand copies, according to Haley Barbour; Palin's interview with Barbara Walters aired on ABC; in it, she said she wouldn't predict whether or not she'll run in 2012; Mike Huckabee, meanwhile, signed books in Peachtree City, Georgia; and Tim Pawlenty blasted Recovery.gov's jobs-reporting errors.

Nov 18 2009, 5:00AM

Hurtling Toward 2010, 11/18

The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) will start directly attacking his primary rival in the state's Senate race, Marco Rubio, insiders tell Hotline OnCall; and Rubio's NRA rating is about to drop from an "A," because, the NRA's top Florida lobbyist says, he didn't do enough to help a law that allows workers to bring guns to workplace parking lots (even though Rubio voted for it); one of Rep. Bart Gordon's (D-TN) GOP challengers, Lou Ann Zelenik, is already up with a TV ad; the chairman of the Connecticut GOP is urging Senate candidate Sam Caligiuri to exit that crowded race and challenge Rep. Chris Murphy (D-CT) instead; and, according to Public Policy Polling, only 43 percent of Arkansas Democrats support Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) (via Swing State Project).

Nov 17 2009, 2:39PM

Sarah Palin On Evolution: In Her Own Words

by Marc Ambinder

Is Sarah Palin a creationist? An adherent to the theory of intelligent design? A conventional Christian? A Deist? Here is Palin, in her own words, writing on page 217 of her book. My conclusion is that she's a creationist but doesn't want to be called a creationist because the word connotes, as she says, "wild-eyed fundamentalists burying evidence for any kind of evolution under an avalanche of Bible verses."

Nov 17 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: Palin's Media Blitz

After Sarah Palin's media blitz is over, will the American people like her more or less than they did before it started?

Nov 17 2009, 6:00AM

The Rundown, 11/17

The Sarah Palin media frenzy really kicks into high gear today: her book is finally published. If your morning commute takes near a Barnes & Noble, we suggest you stay home.

Palin won't be signing books just yet (her signing tour starts tomorrow in Grand Rapids, Michigan) but her second major sit-down interview--a session with Barbara Walters--will air on Good Morning America this morning, and on other ABC news programs later in the day.

Nov 17 2009, 5:30AM

The Invisible Primary, 11/17

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

The Sarah Palin media blitz has kicked off, with her book hitting stores today; yesterday, she appeared on Oprah and dished on how the McCain campaign handled her (she didn't even get to pick the wording of the announcement of her daughter's pregnancy, she said), said Levi Johnston has an "open invitation" to Thanksgiving dinner, and told Oprah that a 2012 bid is "not on my radar"; today, her interview with Barbara Walters will air on Good Morning America; Mike Huckabee signed books in The Villages, Florida last night; and Tim Pawlenty spoke at a National Republican Senatorial Committee fundraiser in Washington, DC yesterday.

Nov 17 2009, 5:00AM

Hurtling Toward 2010, 11/17

The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:

Vice President Joe Biden is hitting the trail for vulnerable Democratic Reps. Harry Mitchell (AV), Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ), and Dina Titus (NV); New York Gov. David Paterson (D) trails Attorney General Andrew Cuomo by 59 points in his reelection race, according to Siena; there's some doubt that Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) will resign after her gubernatorial primary against Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R); Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL) endorsed Alexi Giannoulias in the race for President Obama's old Senate seat; a Des Moines Register poll shows Iowa Gov. Chet Culver (D) trailing two possible opponents; and Beau Biden (D) leads Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) 45-40 in a Susquehannna poll on Delaware's Senate race.

Nov 16 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: What Should Obama Focus On In China?

What's the number one thing President Obama should focus on when he meets with Chinese President Hu Jintao?

Nov 14 2009, 8:30AM

Question Of The Weekend: Trying 9/11 Suspects In NY

Is trying the 9/11 suspects in U.S. federal court the right thing to do? Why or why not?

Nov 13 2009, 4:01PM

Maybe Unemployment Doesn't Matter for Democrats, After All

by Derek Thompson

I've been railing on the White House to pass a job stimulus if they want to protect the Democrats' advantage in Congress. But this great work form Enik Rising suggests that employment means bubkes for midterm elections. Bubkes! Here's his evidence.

Nov 13 2009, 12:54PM

Ad Of The Week: His Stick Is Bigger Than Yours

by Marc Ambinder

Courtesy of Jon Ralston, it's an ad for Sen. Harry Reid's re-election campaign in Nevada. It's not subtle. The tag line is: "America's most powerful Senator. Harry Reid"

Nov 13 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: Crist Or Rubio?

Who will win Florida's Republican Senate primary? Gov. Charlie Crist or Marco Rubio?

Nov 13 2009, 6:00AM

The Rundown, 11/13

It's Friday the 13th, so, while everyone else is avoiding black cats, ladders, and the swine flu...

President Obama, fresh off his long flight to Tokyo, will meet with Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama today. The two will then hold a press conference and attend a closed dinner...here's to hoping there's no George H.W. Bush type incident.

Nov 13 2009, 5:30AM

The Invisible Primary, 11/13

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Mike Huckabee's 8 p.m. show on Fox was the top-rated cable news show last Saturday; Tim Pawlenty will head to Naples, Florida tomorrow for a speaking engagement; and Florida Democrats are asking whom he'll endorse in the state's GOP Senate primary; he'll also speak in Alabama in Feburary; some more details are out on Sarah Palin's book--she not only dishes on conflict with McCain aides, she lists some favorite books she's read (which include "Animal Farm" and Steinbeck's "The Pearl") and has some critical things to say about Katie Couric; and clips of her interview with Oprah are out--see them here.

Nov 13 2009, 5:00AM

Hurtling Toward 2010, 11/13

The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will announce her endorsement of Rep. Michael Capuano (D) in the Massachusetts Senate race today in Boston; former Rep. Rob Portman (R) has a small lead in Ohio's Senate race; former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) performs best in Connecticut's Senate race, besting incumbent Chris Dodd (D) 49-38, according to Quinnipiac, while Linda McMahon (R) beats Dodd 43-41; the Foundation for Patients Rights, a new health care group formed by SEIU, is airing TV ads against Reps. Mark Kirk (R-IL) and Mike Castle (R-DE), both of whom are running for Senate; and Swing State Project quantifies vulnerability for House members, counting 50 Democrats as vulnerable in 2010.

Nov 12 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: What If Health Care Fails?

If health care reform falls apart, what will the rest of President Obama's presidency look like?

Nov 12 2009, 6:00AM

The Rundown, 11/12

Get ready, Asia, President Obama is headed your way. The president will leave the White House for Tokyo, Japan today to kick off his big trip that will include stops in Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, and Seoul, and he won't be back until a week from today.

On the way, he'll stop off in Alaska to address U.S. troops stationed at Elmendorf Air Force Base (not sure if that's any relation to the CBO chief). He'll get to Tokyo tomorrow.

Nov 12 2009, 5:30AM

The Invisible Primary, 11/12

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Sara Palin's upcoming memoir has but five chapters, and she's going to settle some scores with former McCain staffers in it; Tim Pawlenty will travel to New Hampshire next month to raise money for Republican state senate candidates; while The Washington Post reports on his shift to the right; Newt Gingrich will travel to Baltimore on Friday with Al Sharpton, as part of their education tour; Rick Santorum talked about health care at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, and Mitt Romney delivered the keynote speech at the Duval County, Florida GOP's Lincoln Day dinner this week.

Nov 12 2009, 5:00AM

Hurdling Toward 2010, 11/12

The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:

A new Pew survey shows an anti-incumbent mood across the country, as 52 percent said they would want to see their representative reelected in 2010 and 29 percent said they wouldn't; the liberal group Blue America is airing a TV ad in Arkansas calling on Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) to allow an up-or-down vote on health care reform; former Philadelphia Eagles O-lineman Jon Runyan is mulling a challenge to Rep. John Adler (D-NJ); self-funding candidate Tom Ganley (R) is airing a TV ad in Ohio's GOP Senate primary; Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) got censured by the Charleston, South Carolina GOP; and Quinnipiac shows Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D) tied with Republican challenger John Kasich in his reelection race.

Nov 11 2009, 4:43PM

Jenny Sanford Endorses

Jenny Sanford, the wife of South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford, has endorsed in the state's 2010 gubernatorial race. Sanford backed state Rep. Nikki Haley over some bigger Republican names, including U.S. Rep. Gresham Barrett (R-SC), state Attorney General Henry McMaster, and Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, a political rival of her husband's. Mark Sanford won't be running, as he's term-limited at the end of 2010.

Nov 11 2009, 11:14AM

Obama Thanks His Veteran Supporters

The president has a busy day of honoring veterans, with a breakfast at the White House and a ceremony, plus a speech, at Arlington National Cemetery. But he also put somewhat of a personal touch on thanking veterans who supported him in the 2008 campaign, sending an email out to veterans on his campaign email list of supporters, via Organizing for America.

Nov 11 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: Swaying Lieberman

Is there anything Democrats can do to sway Sen. Joe Lieberman to vote in favor of health care reform, AND pass a bill that they're happy with in the end?

Nov 11 2009, 6:00AM

The Rundown, 11/11

It's Veterans Day, and all of official DC will be shut down for the federal holiday, as public officials honor those who've served America in the military. So, among the ceremonies and somber tributes...

President Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama will host a Veterans Day breakfast at the White House, and the president will participate in a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknowns at Arlington National Cemetery before delivering remarks there.

Nov 11 2009, 5:30AM

The Invisible Primary, 11/11

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Haley Barbour is visiting U.S. troops in Iraq; Mike Huckabee will give a lecture on governing as part of Northern Kentucky University's annual Alumni Lecture Series, along with Harold Ford, Jr.; Eric Cantor says he does not plan to punish Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA) for voting with Democrats in favor of health care reform; Dede Scozzafava, the Republican candidate who dropped out of New York's 23rd district special election, criticized Sarah Palin for endorsing her opponent, Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman, in an interview with The Washington Post; Tim Pawlenty shot a deer during the Minnesota Governor's Deer Opener, but the small buck ran off, wounded, and Pawlenty had to leave to headline a fundraiser in Iowa before he and his fellow hunters could track it down; and Texas for Sarah Palin has compiled a schedule of signing events for Palin's upcoming book tour.

Nov 11 2009, 5:00AM

Hurtling Toward 2010, 11/11

The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:

According to Public Policy Polling, 59 percent of Maine Republicans say they'd vote for a more conservative challenger to Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME); Senate Banking Chairman Chris Dodd, who will face a tough reelection challenge, rolled out his comprehensive financial reform bill; CQ Politics reports that big money is flowing in that race; former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) now has a second primary challenger in New Hampshire's Senate race in attorney Ovide Lamontagne; and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) won't run against Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC).

Nov 10 2009, 4:09PM

Health Reform "Heavy on Health and Light on Reform"

by Derek Thompson

Democrats are now accusing the White House of tolerating a bill that is all health subsidies and no cost reform. Unfortunately, I think they're right about the bill. But this is strange accusation. The White House isn't writing this legislation. It's setting guidelines. House and Senate Democrats are angry about the failure of bills written by the House and Senate Democrats. It's a bit like having your mother tell you to clean your room, then coming home from school to see your room isn't clean, and accusing your mother of tolerating a dirty room.

I like Rahm Emanuel's line a lot:

Nov 10 2009, 3:07PM

The Best Speech Obama's Given Since...Maybe Ever

by Marc Ambinder

Today, at Ft. Hood. I guarantee: they'll be teaching this one in rhetoric classes. It was that good. My gloss won't do it justice. Yes, I'm having a Chris Matthews-chill-running-up-my-leg moment, but sometimes, the man, the moment and the words come together and meet the challenge. Obama had to lead a nation's grieving; he had to try and address the thorny issues of Islam and terrorism; to be firm; to express the spirit of America, using familiar, comforting tropes in a way that didn't sound trite. An excerpt from the elegiac address, below, and the full text, after the jump.

It may be hard to comprehend the twisted logic that led to this tragedy. But this much we do know - no faith justifies these murderous and craven acts; no just and loving God looks upon them with favor. And for what he has done, we know that the killer will be met with justice - in this world, and the next.
These are trying times for our country. In Afghanistan and Pakistan, the same extremists who killed nearly 3,000 Americans continue to endanger America, our allies, and innocent Afghans and Pakistanis. In Iraq, we are working to bring a war to a successful end, as there are still those who would deny the Iraqi people the future that Americans and Iraqis have sacrificed so much for.

As we face these challenges, the stories of those at Fort Hood reaffirm the core values that we are fighting for, and the strength that we must draw upon. Theirs are tales of American men and women answering an extraordinary call - the call to serve their comrades, their communities, and their country. In an age of selfishness, they embody responsibility. In an era of division, they call upon us to come together. In a time of cynicism, they remind us of who we are as Americans.

We are a nation that endures because of the courage of those who defend it. We saw that valor in those who braved bullets here at Fort Hood, just as surely as we see it in those who signed up knowing that they would serve in harm's way.

We are a nation of laws whose commitment to justice is so enduring that we would treat a gunman and give him due process, just as surely as we will see that he pays for his crimes

We are a nation that guarantees the freedom to worship as one chooses. And instead of claiming God for our side, we remember Lincoln's words, and always pray to be on the side of God.

Nov 10 2009, 11:34AM

A Thumbnail Guide To Some Top Republican Targets In 2010

by Marc Ambinder

The motion of the ocean aside, here's a quick guide to some Democratic House members that Republicans believe are genuinely vulnerable in a year when President Obama isn't on the ballot. (Note: isn't it interesting how this formulation admits that, were Obama to be on the ballot, some of these folks wouldn't be as vulnerable?) Even though the NRCC hasn't recruited challengers in all of these districts, they've begun to target the incumbents in radio ads and through auto-dial calls in an effort to both test how vulnerable these Democrats are and begin to soften them up if they aren't. There are potentially vulnerable Dems not on this list, but I'm sticking to the races where the GOP has spent the most money (on TV, on polling, on recruitment) so far.

Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) -- Voted no on health care (she was leaning towards voting "yes"), yes for the stimulus package, voted yes on cap-and-trade (though it shouldn't matter much in her district, which spans suburban Orlando and Brevard County). She has two declared GOP challengers so far, but has managed to outraise both of them. Her perch on the House Financial Services Committee helps her bring $$ to the district.

Alan Grayson (FL-08) -- He represents Orlando, and he's a target because of his outspokesness on health care and other issues. He's also independently wealthy, and has so far scared away Republican challengers. His Netroots popularity means a steady source of support and money should he scare one in to the race.

Nov 10 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: Is Health Reform Worth It To Pro-Choicers?

If you were a pro-choice Democrat in the House of Representatives, would you vote for a health care reform bill that included language to prevent private health insurance participating in an exchange, and any insurance purchased with the help of government subsidies, from covering abortions?

Nov 10 2009, 6:00AM

The Rundown, 11/10

Flags around the country will fly at half-staff today, in recognition of the killings at Fort Hood, Texas, and President Obama and the First Lady will attend a memorial service at Fort Hood.

In somewhat lighter news, Senate Democrats and Republicans will hold their weekly caucus policy luncheons today at the Capitol, and it's a pretty safe bet they'll be talking about health care. Hopefully Joe Lieberman makes it out unscathed by the slings and arrows of his fellow partisans...

Nov 10 2009, 5:30AM

The Invisible Primary, 11/10

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Mike Huckabee says he's a "very serious" figure in the GOP; Sarah Palin's book tour will include a stop in Iowa, while Huckabee signed books there over the weekend; but Huckabee says there were no political motives behind the trip; Palin revisited her "death panels" critique of Democratic health care reform in a post on her Facebook page Saturday night; and Tim Pawlenty will be in Iowa this Saturday for an Iowa GOP fundraiser.

Nov 10 2009, 5:00AM

Hurtling Toward 2010, 11/10

The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:

Republicans have avoided a conservative vs. centrist battle in the Colorado gubernatorial primary, as state Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry has left the race; the Club for Growth endorsed Marco Rubio over Gov. Charlie Crist (R) in Florida's Senate primary; 39 House Democrats voted against the Democratic health care bill; and Republicans Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore are neck and neck in California's GOP Senate primary, according to new polls by Greenberg Quinlian Rosner and Public Opinion Strategies.

Nov 9 2009, 2:13PM

The Atlantic's Boldest: Department Of Corrections

by Marc Ambinder

Relying on inaccurate voting lists, I misstated the votes of several Democrats on several key pieces of legislation. Rep. Collin Peterson voted FOR the Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade bill, as did Rep. Heath Shuler and Rep. Frank Kratovil. Here's the official clerk's report for H.R. 2454, H.R. 887 (health care) and the stimulus package (H.R.1).

Nov 9 2009, 11:38AM

Blue Dog Blues: Creigh Deeds' Loss Should Have Appalachian Democrats Nervous

by Cameron Joseph

Republican Bob McDonnell's bludgeoning of Democrat Creigh Deeds in the Virginia governor's race last Tuesday has spurred a frenzy of speculation about national Democrats' problems heading into the 2010 midterm elections. While it is a bit of a stretch to say that major revelations can be drawn from a race in a state that has a long history of voting against the incumbent president's party in statewide elections, and where 56 percent of voters said that their opinion of Obama did not factor in to their vote, some important details can be drawn from Deeds' loss -- ones that should worry Democrats, especially rural Blue Dogs, heading into the upcoming election year.

Nov 9 2009, 7:38AM

Question Of The Day: The Senate's Turn

After the House narrowly voted to approve Speaker Pelosi's health care bill this weekend, it's now the Senate's turn. Does the extremely close (220-215) House vote tell us anything about what's to come in the upper chamber?

Nov 7 2009, 8:30AM

Question Of The Weekend: The House Vote

Given that the Senate has its own dynamics on health care--and is expected to entertain more conservative options--does the House's vote on health care matter?

Nov 6 2009, 3:03PM

Longtime Obama Friend Leaving White House

by Marc Ambinder

The White House announced today that Cassandra Q. Butts, a long-time friend of the president's who serves as his chief deputy in the White House Counsel's Office, will be leaving her post to become senior adviser to the Millennium Challenge Corporation.

The agency was chartered by Congress in 2004 to partner with third-world countries and promote sustainable growth and good government.

Nov 6 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: The GOP And Conservative Grassroots

Tea partiers descended on Capitol Hill yesterday for a rally that drew 10,000 people, and prominent Republicans like Eric Cantor Mike Pence spoke to the crowd. Are grassroots conservatives ready to get behind figures of the Republican establishment, or do GOP politicians still need to approach the tea partiers, and their populist energy, with caution?

Nov 6 2009, 6:00AM

The Rundown, 11/6

It's Unemployment Day in America, as the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor statistics will deliver the (probably bad) numbers on unemployment this morning, with the figure expected to rise slightly from the 9.8 percent reported last month...possibly even to break into double digits.

Which would make today a good time for the president to offer some sort of relief to the economically strapped nation...and, coincidentally, he's expected to do just that. The House passed an extension of unemployment benefits yesterday, and President Obama is expected to sign it today. Call it a silver lining.

Nov 6 2009, 5:30AM

The Invisible Primary, 11/6

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Mike Huckabee leads the foremost 2012 contenders, according to a new Gallup poll, as 71 percent of Republicans said they'd "seriously consider" supporting him for president, while Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin both collected 65 percent, and Newt Gingrich collected 60; Tim Pawlenty said he was "inartful" in suggesting this week that there might be problems with Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) being a member of the Republican Party; he's also proposing an amendment to the Minnesota constitution that would cap state spending; discussing his non-endorsement in NY-23 with OneNewsNow, Mike Huckabee said he was asked by party officials not to get involved; and with tea partiers descending on the Capitol today for a rally/protest, Eric Cantor and Mike Pence addressed the crowd.

Nov 6 2009, 5:00AM

Hurtling Toward 2010, 11/6

The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) claimed he didn't endorse the stimulus, even though he stumped for it at a rally with President Obama; the Club for Growth, meanwhile, is airing a TV ad that highlights his erstwhile stimulus support; Ned Lamont, the Democrat who defeated Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) in the 2006 Democratic primary, might be running for governor; Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO), who is running for Senate in Missouri, took aim at the White House after a report that Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have obtained swine flu vaccines for their employees; and the NRCC has found two new potential candidates to challenge Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) (via Swing State Project).

Nov 5 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: What If Health Care Doesn't Pass In 2009?

If health care reform doesn't pass by the end of the year, will the political will behind it fall apart? What changes for health care if Congress leaves for the holidays without putting a bill on President Obama's desk?

Nov 5 2009, 6:00AM

The Rundown, 11/5

With the country still recovering, more or less, from Tuesday night's elections, the media will gradually begin to move away from the lessons of New Jersey, New York, and Virginia, and onto...health care! With a vote expected in the House of Representatives as early as this weekend, it's crunch time for Democratic leaders who will be counting votes and trying to get to the 218 they need to pass Speaker Pelosi's comprehensive bill.

But amid all the health care mayhem, Pelosi will find time to hold a mock swearing-in ceremony for the House's two newest members, which joined the Democratic caucus with victories on Tuesday--Reps.-elect Bill Owens (D-NY) and John Garamendi (D-CA).

Nov 5 2009, 5:30AM

The Invisible Primary, 11/5

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Mike Huckabee will be in Allentown, Pennsylvania today as part of his 60-city book-signing tour; he also called the selection of Dede Scozzafava as the GOP's candidate in NY-23 a "train wreck"; and he accused the Obama administration of "abandoning" Israel; Tim Pawlenty held a fundraiser in Minneapolis last night; he'll also get some help from Jon Voight; Eric Cantor reveled in Republican Bob McDonnell's win in his home state of Virginia on Fox Tuesday night; Mitt Romney sent out a fundraising email for his PAC; and Sarah Palin's book tour will start November 18.

Nov 5 2009, 5:00AM

Hurtling Toward 2010, 11/5

The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:

With the 2009 elections out of the way, we're hurtling full force, and...Illinois Senate Candidate Mark Kirk, a heretofore moderate Republican, is fishing for an endorsement from Sarah Palin; Carly Fiorina officially announced her candidacy for Senate in California; and Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) promptly endorsed her conservative primary opponent, Chuck DeVore; conservative Republican Senate candidate Marco Rubio launched a new fundraising site attacking Gov. Charlie Crist (R) for being too Obama friendly; Rand Paul has pulled into the lead of Kentucky's Senate race; and CQ says nine of the 10 most vulnerable House members are Democrats.

Nov 4 2009, 10:05AM

Semiotics Of Marco Rubio's New Website

by Marc Ambinder

Marco Rubio's new $$ site: semioticians, have a go: http://www.charlieandobama.com/

Looks like two guys about kiss, don't it? Kinda a sensitive issue in Florida, where Gov. Crist was dogged by gay rumors... and where he embraced Barack Obama's stimulus package. This is an interesting way to link Crist to Obama....maybe especially in light of the way New York's 23rd CD will be interpreted...not as a rejection of bipartisanship but as an acceptance of it. Anyway, lots going on here.

Nov 4 2009, 9:21AM

Question of the Day: Who's The Big Winner?

Republicans swept in Virginia and took the governor's mansion in New Jersey...but Democrat Bill Owens upset conservative darling Doug Hoffman in New York to stymie the hopes of grassroots conservatives across the country. Who was the big winner on Tuesday night?

BONUS #1: President Obama invested himself in most in New Jersey's gubernatorial race, and Democrat Jon Corzine lost. Was this a referendum on him? If so, what does it say?

BONUS #2: What does Hoffman's loss mean for the grassroots conservative movement?

Nov 4 2009, 12:11AM

Christie: No More Negative Campaigns

Chris Christie (R) spent most of his acceptance speech thanking people and talking about how it's time for reform in Trenton, but at the end of the speech he made a poignant critique of his opponent, Gov. Jon Corzine (D), and the negative campaign he ran against Christie (though without naming the Democratic incumbent).

"The talking heads...have said you cannot win an election in New Jersey without being personally negative, without doing smear attack ads on the character of your opponent. Now in February when I announced [my candidacy] or governor, I said I knew that this campaign would get into the gutter, and I would not follow my opponents into that gutter," Christie said.

Nov 3 2009, 11:12PM

Corzine Concedes: Democrats Have An Agenda To Carry Forward

New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) actually managed to rally the crowd during his concession speech tonight, and he did it by talking about the national Democratic/progressive agenda--which was somewhat fitting, given that New Jersey was supposed to be the race most apt to be called a referendum on President Obama and his party.

Corzine delivered an applause line when he said his loss "does not mean...the Democrats across this state, across this country, don't have an agenda to carry forward. It's important that we fight for health care, it is important that we make sure our children have the kind of education that I know New Jerseyans want, it's important that we fight for collective bargaining and the rights of labor."

Nov 3 2009, 9:55PM

McDonnell Accepts: It's About Jobs

Bob McDonnell's campaign acceptance speech, as his campaign had been, was about jobs in Virginia. No jabs at President Obama or health care or anything going on in Washington, really. Some general conservatism and one line about keeping taxes down, but mostly just jobs in Virginia.

After running down a list of thank-yous that included RNC Chairman Michael Steele and Missisippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R), McDonnell listed the people he'd met throughout the state that were looking for more job creation and opportunity, and got into his ethos:

Nov 3 2009, 9:35PM

In Michigan Bellwether, Nofs Pads His Lead

by Gautham Nagesh

It looks like Mike Nofs will win the special election in Michigan's 19th State Senate District. From the Jackson Citizen Patriot:

With 63 of 107 precincts reporting, Mike Nofs, a Republican from Battle Creek, leads with 13,571 votes to Martin Griffin's 6,302 votes in the 19th district state Senate race.

The polls closed at 8 p.m.

Griffin, D-Jackson, and Nofs, are competing to fill the vacancy left by Mark Schauer, who was elected to Congress last fall. The 19th District includes Calhoun County and all of Jackson County except for Summit, Leoni, Grass Lake and Norvell townships.

One other notable electoral result in Michigan: former television reporter Charles Pugh is currently leading the pack and poised to become the president of the Detroit City Council. Pugh would be the city's first openly gay council member. I defer to my colleague Ta-Nehisi on the subject of homophobia the African-American community, but this is an important milestone to note in one of America's largest cities with a black majority.

Nov 3 2009, 8:03PM

New Jersey Exit Poll Results

by Marc Ambinder

Courtesy of CBS News: If Jon Corzine wins re-election, he can thank women, who gave him a narrow advantage and who voted at higher proportions than men did. Note the split among moderates and independents; independents, self-described, clearly were more conservative than moderates, which says something about the electorate, rather than, I think, the environment.

Nov 3 2009, 7:32PM

The Virginia Exit Polls

by Marc Ambinder

As everyone's noting, the percentage of young voters dropped off substantially from 2008. What should be noted: young voter turnout is never high in off-off year elections. That's not where Creigh Deeds's problems originated from. Look at his standing among independents. True, independents tend to lean toward the out-party in these elections, but Deeds had a foothold with them before the summer. Then the summer happened. The summer: GM bailed out. Unemployment spikes. Talk in Washington of a trillion dollar health care bill. Suddenly, independent men, in particular, began to orient themselves toward the basic Republican message: lower taxes, less government intervention, less spending. Waiting to see the geographic cross-tabs, but I'm betting that, where there's a comparison to be made, you'll find that Deeds did much worse among suburban (Richmond and DC) independents, particularly men, particularly those over 45.

Nov 3 2009, 5:50PM

The DNC Pre-Spins...

by Marc Ambinder

From a Democratic National Committee e-mail, about the relevance of tonight's results:

NRCC Talking Point: "The 2001 Off-Year Elections Have No Bearing On Next Year's Mid-Term Elections. These Races Revolved Around Local Issues And Local Candidates. There Were No Discernable National Trends." NRCC Talking Points: "The 2001 off-year elections have no bearing on next year's mid-term elections. These races revolved around local issues and local candidates. There were no discernable national trends." [Hotline, 11/7/01]

Nov 3 2009, 5:14PM

NY-23: Who Spent What?

New York's 23rd district has been a quirky race all around, and, with all the national attention it's drawn, so too has come a good deal of national money. With only one House race happening in '09, where else would it go?

It's also being looked at as an ideological microcosm for the rest of the country, meaning interest groups had a point to prove in this contest, and that's exactly what they tried to do--with money.

So here's a breakdown of who spent what in New York's 23rd district, and who the major players were:

Nov 3 2009, 2:36PM

The Real Bellwether May Be In Michigan

by Gautham Nagesh

Most of the political class is focused on three races today: gubernatorial contests in Virginia and New Jersey and the Congressional race in New York's 23rd District. But across the country voters are casting ballots for state and local races that could have greater implications for next year's mid-term elections. One example is the special election in Michigan's 19th State Senate District where Republican and heavy favorite Mike Nofs is squaring off with Democrat Martin Griffin to replace Democrat Mark Schauer, who was elected to Congress last fall.

The race has been the focal point for both state parties in recent weeks, leading Michael Meyers of TargetPoint Consulting to call it a potential bellwether for 2010:

If Republican Mike Nofs is successful in retaking the seat and adding a new member to the Republican majority, it will have direct and meaningful consequences on the 2010 election's and its effects will be felt well into the next decade.

Nov 3 2009, 2:21PM

The Election Line: 2:00 pm ET Update

by Marc Ambinder

An anecdotal canvassing from sources and reports across the nation.

Yes, btw, there ARE exit polls. No, I don't have access to them yet.

Democrats in Virginia say that GOP base precinct turnout is lower than what they'd expect for a race that's not supposed to be close. GOPers need to run 10-11 points ahead in base precincts in the aggregate, as of this AM they were about even. Some anecdotes about lower-than-expected GOP turnout in Richmond too. Note, though, that there's always a drop-off from about 10am to 4:30 pm, and that turnout is still in the range of a solid GOP victory across the tickets.

Turnout in Maine is high. In Bangor, it's over 50%, and that bodes poorly for ME 1, which would overturn the state's new same-sex marriage law. High turnout seems to favor gay marriage; low turnout seems oppose it.

The folks at Public Policy Polling: "Many people who approve of Obama not voting for Owens, Corzine- that's the candidates' fault, not his."

Republicans are excited about what they're seeing in Virginia and not very excited about seeing about New Jersey.

The weather is great in the 23rd district in New York

Nov 3 2009, 10:07AM

Obama To Meet With Lincoln

So reports TPMDC's Christina Bellantoni: President Obama will meet with Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) in the Oval Office this evening at 5:15, as voters are casting ballots in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York, presumably to talk about health care. Lincoln is one of the Senate's cluster of centrist Democrats, who are thus far still considered swing votes on health reform, though Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's (D-NV) plan for a compromise public option--one that lets states opt out of the program--seems to be gaining momentum (Sen. Ben Nelson of Nebraska, who is perhaps the toughest sell the public option besides Joe Lieberman, indicated in an interview with MSNBC on Friday that he thought Reid's opt-out plan could pass).

Nov 3 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: A Victory For....

Tomorrow morning, will we see the 2009 elections as a victory for Democrats, Republicans, or neither?

Nov 3 2009, 6:00AM

The Rundown, 10/3

It's Election Day 2009! It seems like yesterday that America elected Barack Obama its 44th president, and now here we are, back voting again on gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, plus a much-anticipated special election in New York's 23rd district, and an anti-gay-marriage ballot initiative in Maine.

If Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman wins in New York, all you-know-what will break loose as conservatives everywhere jump for joy. So stay tuned to Atlantic Politics for news and analysis on that and the other races, so you know whether to avoid the streets for fear of exuberant tea partiers.

Nov 3 2009, 6:00AM

The Invisible Primary, 10/3

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Sarah Palin is robo-calling in Virginia's gubernatorial race, though the GOP candidate hasn't embraced her; she also took a swipe at independent New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett on her Facebook page; where she also sparred with Vice President over energy policy; more people want to read upcoming memoirs by Condoleezza Rice and President Bush than Palin's "Going Rogue," according to a Vanity Fair/CBS poll; Newt Gingrich will appear with Al Sharpton at a high school in Montgomery, Alabama today as part of their Education Road Tour; he was also "deeply upset" that Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava, whom he had endorsed, decided to back Democrat Bill Owens after dropping out of New York's 23rd district special election; and Mike Huckabee is planning a 60-city tour to promote his Christmas book.

Nov 3 2009, 5:00AM

Hurtling Toward 2010, 10/03

The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:

Not only is former Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava backing former rival Democrat Bill Owens in New York's 23rd district, she's recorded robo-calls for him; Vice President Joe Biden campaigned for Owens; two polls show Conservative Doug Hoffman leading that race; a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll shows New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) leading Chris Christie (R) 43-41, but the poll didn't include independent candidate Chris Daggett; Florida Gov. and Senate candidate Charlie Crist's (R) approval ratings dropped to 42 percent according to a St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll;

Nov 2 2009, 1:30PM

So Many Assumptions, So Little Time

by Marc Ambinder

The Democrats assume that independents won't find the GOP an attractive vehicle for their disaffection, while Republicans assume that independents will unite against the Democratic Party's agenda in Congress: health care reform, cap-and-trade, the stimulus package, liberal social policy legislation. That means that Republicans will spend 2010 attacking the Democratic Congress, while Democrats will spend 2010 attacking the Republican brand -- reminding independents why they disassociated with the party in the first place.

A political assumption among Democrats is that health care reform will be popular in the short run -- and when the implementation phase begins, it may be unpopular again -- but it will, in the long-term, be a bragging point for the party.

A political assumption among Republicans is that Democrats will get no credit for health care reform.

A patronizing assumption among Democrats is that Republican Party leaders will fail to find attractive, moderate candidates and run them in appropriate districts in 2010.

A patronizing assumption among Republicans is that Nancy Pelosi isn't smart enough to figure out how to give centrist Democrats leeway to buck the party in 2010.

A corollary assumption for Democrats is that Republicans cannot build a national movement.

A corollary assumption for Republicans is that Democrats consistently underestimate the long-term brand failure of liberalism.

An unspoken assumption among Democrats is that the economy has put people into a funk. The quicker the economy improves, the more attenuated the incipient populism will be. (You'll never hear Democrats say this, shades of Jimmy Carter's "malaise" speech, a word, of course, he never actually uttered.)

An unspoken assumption among Republicans is that cultural politics, dampened by the failure of the Bush presidency and the collapse of the economy last year, are back and tilting the electorate decidedly. Broadly defined, this includes fears about multiculturalism, political correctness, gay rights, and immigration.

Nov 2 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: Which 2009 Ballot Is Most Important For 2010?

On Tuesday, voters will go to the polls to cast ballots on a governor's race in Virginia, another in New Jersey, a House race in upstate New York, and a gay marriage amendment in Maine. Which will have the most bearing on 2010?