Politics with Marc Ambinder

November 1, 2009 - November 7, 2009 Archives

Nov 7 2009, 8:30AM

Question Of The Weekend: The House Vote

Given that the Senate has its own dynamics on health care--and is expected to entertain more conservative options--does the House's vote on health care matter?
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Nov 6 2009, 4:03PM

A New Term: Scozzafavaed

by Chris Good

In the wake of New York's tumultuous 23rd district special election, a political neologism has arisen: "Scozzafavaed."

It started popping up on blogs this week after Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava was forced out of the race by low polling numbers and a growing campaign by conservatives to paint her as too liberal.

The gist, basically, is that if you're a moderate Republican and the conservative wing of the GOP sets out to get you, and does, you got Scozzafavaed.

Now it's made its way onto Urban Dictionary: 

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Nov 6 2009, 3:25PM

Pressure Your Non-Voting Representative

by Megan Hupp

Harnessing the power of Internet was a coup for the Obama campaign last year, and now the White House and Democrats in Congress are attempting to drum up support for the House health care bill in a similar manner. Except that all the tech-savviness in the world can't find votes where there are none.

In a mass e-mail that went out to supporters this morning, Organizing for America (the Democratic National Committee-led Obama campaign network) instructs Washington, DC residents to "call your representative right now and tell them to vote in favor of real health insurance reform..."

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Nov 6 2009, 3:03PM

Longtime Obama Friend Leaving White House

by Marc Ambinder

The White House announced today that Cassandra Q. Butts, a long-time friend of the president's who serves as his chief deputy in the White House Counsel's Office, will be leaving her post to become senior adviser to the Millennium Challenge Corporation.

The agency was chartered by Congress in 2004 to partner with third-world countries and promote sustainable growth and good government.

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Nov 6 2009, 2:31PM

The Deficit Choice: What The White House Is Thinking

by Marc Ambinder

Huge deficits will be omnipresent throughout President Obama's first term, complicating his administration's messaging efforts on the economy. But advisers separate the political repercussions from the actual underlying fiscal and monetary policies.  In some ways, the short-term politics of the deficit are negligible. They're preferable to the short-term politics of a much higher unemployment rate with no economic growth -- and a smaller deficit.

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Nov 6 2009, 2:31PM

Health Care Vote Might Be Delayed, But It Won't Matter

by Matthew Cooper

When are we getting a health care vote in the House? It seemed impossible that with her monster majority, Nancy Pelosi might need to delay the vote beyond Saturday to round up enough support for the House's version of a health care bill. But the Hill is rife with conflicting reports that the vote might go until Monday or Tuesday. Like most kerfuffles, this one won't matter. The Democratic House will pass a bill and that will eventually need to be married to whatever the Senate produces. But the fact that delay is in the air is not a great thing for the process. The conservatives who rallied yesterday on Capitol Hill will take credit for the delay, but in the end there is going to be a bill.
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Nov 6 2009, 2:31PM

The Politics of Fort Hood And Lack Thereof

by Matthew Cooper

Yesterday's tragedy at Fort Hood has already given rise to a cottage industry of bloviation and idle speculation. Last night, I flitted around the cable universe. Sean Hannity asked if there was enough security on military bases. On Larry King, Dr. Phil offered the stunning insight that the shooter had had a break from reality and that this was a "major mental event." Rachel Maddow was more measured in her discussion of Post Traumatic Stress Disorder, noting that we don't know if the shooter suffered from it. Since he hadn't seen combat, perhaps he had not.

Mass shootings have set off kabuki rituals before, usually in the form of gun control debates with both sides rehashing familiar arguments. Then, sometimes, there's really nothing to be said. As Andrew Sullivan notes today, there was a tragedy in Killeen almost two decades ago when a deranged man drove his truck into a Luby's Cafeteria. I wrote about it at the time. The man shouted epithets about the county where he was raised and where the killing took place. Since the weapon of choice was a truck, there was no gun control debate.

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Nov 6 2009, 1:18PM

Lessons From Maine: An Interview With Equality California's Geoff Kors

by Chris Good

After voters in Maine repealed the state's legalization of gay marriage this past Tuesday by a margin of 53 percent to 47 percent, California's gay-marriage activists are still gearing up for a challenge to overturn Proposition 8. Some want to put a measure on the ballot in 2010; others, in 2012.

What follows is a lightly edited interview from Thursday evening with Geoff Kors, executive director of Equality California, one of the principal groups that led the "No on 8" campaign in 2008.

What lessons do you think gay marriage activists can take away from what happened in Maine?

I think we have to really look at the vote and analyze it before we can draw any specific conclusions, but what's clear is, even though we significantly outspent the opposition for the first time, and supporters of equality out-organized the opposition, our side still fell short. So I think one of the lessons to take away from this last election, and from last year on Prop 8, is how far we've moved on this issue in a remarkably fast time.

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Nov 6 2009, 11:36AM

Pawlenty: Deficit Neutral, Starting Now

by Chris Good

Gov. Tim Pawlenty has wrangled with Democrats in the Minnesota state legislature this year to balance the state's budget, and now Pawlenty has proposed an amendment to the Minnesota Constitution that would effectively require state budgets to be deficit neutral, capping new spending in a given budget cycle at the level of revenue that the state took in during the previous cycle.

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Nov 6 2009, 11:21AM

Paterson's Defiant Ad Buy In New York

by Marc Ambinder

New York Governor David Paterson (D), emboldened by the results of Tuesday's elections, begins his first flight of television ads today in the state. The ads, entitled "Some Say," refer to attempts by the White House to persuade Paterson, whose approval ratings are low, to not run for his first elected term. According to a Republican media ad buyer, the Paterson campaign is spending about $625,785 for a week's worth of ads in five markets, including Rochester, Buffalo and New York City. The New York Times has more info here.
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Nov 6 2009, 10:23AM

The White House Political Learning Curve

by Marc Ambinder

Is Barack Obama's cool style of governing fundamentally incompatible with the furnace of modern politics? Bipartisan conclaves, bringing industry to the table(s), relative transparency, accommodation and consensus meetings are all ornaments of the Obama brand. But political parties, built around existing alignments of interests, tend to get excited about fighting. Base-tending is crucial to political husbandry. Obama has a gourmand's disdain for populism and picking fights.

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Nov 6 2009, 10:18AM

After White House Hedging, Double-Digit Unemployment Is Here

by Chris Good

Double-digit unemployment is finally here, and it's here in a big way: unemployment jumped from 9.8 percent last month into the double digits, a .4 percent increase to 10.2 percent. At the Business Channel, Dan Indiviglio breaks down the utter bleakness in the numbers.

It's an event the White House has expected, and has been hedging against, all along: they've said since early summer that unemployment may crest over the double-digit mark, and, more recently, as administration officials have brought the good news of 3.5 percent third-quarter GDP growth, they've made some more direct predictions that this would happen.

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Nov 6 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: The GOP And Conservative Grassroots

Tea partiers descended on Capitol Hill yesterday for a rally that drew 10,000 people, and prominent Republicans like Eric Cantor Mike Pence spoke to the crowd. Are grassroots conservatives ready to get behind figures of the Republican establishment, or do GOP politicians still need to approach the tea partiers, and their populist energy, with caution?
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Nov 6 2009, 6:00AM

The Rundown, 11/6

It's Unemployment Day in America, as the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor statistics will deliver the (probably bad) numbers on unemployment this morning, with the figure expected to rise slightly from the 9.8 percent reported last month...possibly even to break into double digits.

Which would make today a good time for the president to offer some sort of relief to the economically strapped nation...and, coincidentally, he's expected to do just that. The House passed an extension of unemployment benefits yesterday, and President Obama is expected to sign it today. Call it a silver lining.

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Nov 6 2009, 5:30AM

The Invisible Primary, 11/6

by Chris Good

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Mike Huckabee leads the foremost 2012 contenders, according to a new Gallup poll, as 71 percent of Republicans said they'd "seriously consider" supporting him for president, while Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin both collected 65 percent, and Newt Gingrich collected 60; Tim Pawlenty said he was "inartful" in suggesting this week that there might be problems with Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) being a member of the Republican Party; he's also proposing an amendment to the Minnesota constitution that would cap state spending; discussing his non-endorsement in NY-23 with OneNewsNow, Mike Huckabee said he was asked by party officials not to get involved; and with tea partiers descending on the Capitol today for a rally/protest, Eric Cantor and Mike Pence addressed the crowd.
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Nov 6 2009, 5:00AM

Hurtling Toward 2010, 11/6

The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) claimed he didn't endorse the stimulus, even though he stumped for it at a rally with President Obama; the Club for Growth, meanwhile, is airing a TV ad that highlights his erstwhile stimulus support; Ned Lamont, the Democrat who defeated Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) in the 2006 Democratic primary, might be running for governor; Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO), who is running for Senate in Missouri, took aim at the White House after a report that Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have obtained swine flu vaccines for their employees; and the NRCC has found two new potential candidates to challenge Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) (via Swing State Project).
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Nov 5 2009, 5:26PM

The Cornyn Caveat: What The NRSC Will Do -- And Won't Do -- In Primaries

by Marc Ambinder

One day after National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman John Cornyn promised that his group wouldn't play spend money in the Republican primaries, a Republican Senate candidate in Arkansas has gotten some attention for an upcoming fundraiser of his at the National Republican Senatorial Committee headquarters in Washington. Candidate Gilbert Baker has six Republican primary opponents, including the head of the Arkansas Tea Party movement. 

The AP says that Cornyn is listed as a host of the 11/19 fundraiser, along with three other GOP heavyweights, including the top Senate Republican, Mitch McConnell.

An NRSC spokesperson told the AP that the fundraiser does not imply that Cornyn is endorsing Mr.Baker. Other candidates, the spokesperson said, could also have their fundraisers at the NRSC.

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Nov 5 2009, 5:11PM

Interview: The Club For Growth Ascendent

by Marc Ambinder

Here's a Q and A with ex-Rep. Chris Chocola, president of the Club for Growth, whose endorsement of Doug Hoffman in New York's 23rd congressional district precipitated Hoffman's quick rise to national prominence. Though the Club lost this race, they scored a coup the next day when Sen. John Cornyn, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said that he would not spend money on behalf of candidates who faced primaries, even those candidates he personally recruited.

What's your 30,000 feet take on Tuesday night?

For conservatives, really, they did not lose anything on Tuesday night because even in Hoffman's loss, if the Club for Growth had done nothing, Hoffman wouldn't have been able to mount a viable campaign. You would had the same type of policymaker in Scozzafava or Owens. Certainly we would have rather had Hoffman win. A victory in itself [when] a guy like John Cornyn [says it's]  his lesson that the competitive primaries are a good thing. It's not good that party bosses tell the voters who they ought to like. So that's a victory in and of itself.

What's the Club for Growth's brand like out there? I ask that because it seems like a lot of folks in the district didn't like how Hoffman became a talisman for a movement that originated outside the district.

Everyone would say that the [Scozzafava] probably wasn't in hindsight the most attractive candidate for the Republicans. If the county chairman had picked a principled conservative from the beginning, they would have probably won rather easily. So, there was a lot of money coming from all sides, and we don't take solace in this, but she ended up being everything that we said she was. I don't buy the argument that this was a struggle within the conservatives. There was no moderate in the race. There may be examples of that in the future, like in Florida.

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Nov 5 2009, 4:16PM

Liberals Pledge $3.5 Million Against Dems Who Filibuster

by Chris Good

The left's pressure on centrist Democrats has steadily grown since the health care debate began but MoveOn.org and Democracy for America today launched the most direct threat yet: together, they've secured commitments from 66,000 members to donate a total of $3.5 million to support primary challenges against any Democratic senator who joins a Republican filibuster to block an up-or-down vote on health care reform. The groups announced the commitment in a fundraising email to supporters today.
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Nov 5 2009, 3:50PM

Where's the Hope?

by Matthew Cooper

It's the day after the day after. And the punditocracy is still analyzing the off year elections. I thought E.J. Dionne had the most sober take--bad news for incumbents, Democrats, an annoyed electorate. If anything I think he may have underestimated the level of irritability out there. The defeat of Thomas Suozzi, the executive in Nassau County, should have been a real wake up call to Democrats. His election marked a big gain for the party in the land of D'Amato. Now it's gone. E.J.'s smartest take, I think, is the failure of the Obama base to be fired up and ready to go. A year's time has dampened some hope. That doesn't mean it can't and won't come back. The world will look different in a few months if we have 5 percent growth and something like universal health care.

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Nov 5 2009, 3:12PM

Respinning Virginia: Forget The Obama Surge Voters

by Marc Ambinder

Heaven help me, but I'm going to take issue with a political satirist. And not just any political satirist, mind you, but Jon Stewart himself. On his Monday show, Stewart lampooned the tendency of journo-punditocrats to opine that the interpretation of the election matters as much as the election itself. The humor was based on the premise that both sides will have their spin, pundits will dutifully select whatever spin fits the moment, and then, even though they know they're not telling the truth, will focus the collective mind in such a way as to perpetuate a distorted meaning of the election.

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Nov 5 2009, 2:37PM

Dick Armey Is Priceless

by Chris Good

New York Times Magazine has a pretty revealing--and entertaining--profile of Dick Armey, the former Republican House majority leader who now chairs Freedom Works, a conservative grassroots organization that's been the major principal group in facilitating the tea party protests this year and, in so doing, has risen to prominence as one of the most influential groups in American politics today.

In it, Armey tells writer Michael Sokolove a lot about his ideas...and those, in turn, tell us something about the movement he's now part of. For one, he says that "The largest empirical problem we have in health care today is too many people are too overinsured."

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Nov 5 2009, 1:02PM

Swine Flu Politics: Health Reform Takes Hits Over Flu Vaccine

by Chris Good

Criticism of the Obama administration's handling of swine flu vaccines has bled into another area of politics: the Democratic push for health care reform.

The administration has come under attack recently for reports that swine flu vaccines would be delivered to two of the most maligned classes of people in American politics--Guantanamo Bay detainees and Wall Street executives--before the rest of the country could get them.

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Nov 5 2009, 10:51AM

Crist's Dilemma

by Chris Good

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) has had a tough time distancing himself from President Barack Obama, avoiding the president when he visited the state last week, and even telling reporters he didn't know Obama was going to be there.

Wednesday, he told CNN that he never endorsed the $787 stimulus package, which he publicly supported during its journey through Congress. It's become somewhat of an albatross for him: his primary opponent in Florida's Senate race, the conservative Marco Rubio, has called attention it repeatedly.

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Nov 5 2009, 9:45AM

2010 Leanings: Generic House Ballot Sways Back To Democrats

by Chris Good

Over the summer, as conservative energy came to its anti-tax, anti-spending, anti-stimulus crescendo amid a wave of town hall and tea party-style protests, Republicans started overtaking Democrats in generic House balloting--polls that ask people, regardless of the candidates they may get to choose from, which party they're likely to vote for in House of Representatives races in the 2010 midterms.

No less than 10 polls in August and September had Republicans leading, and one Rasmussen survey had Republicans lup by 7 percentage points. Lots of polls had Democrats ahead, too, and the average, according to Pollster.com, never quite swung into Republicans' favor--but, for a moment in August, it was very close.

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Nov 5 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: What If Health Care Doesn't Pass In 2009?

If health care reform doesn't pass by the end of the year, will the political will behind it fall apart? What changes for health care if Congress leaves for the holidays without putting a bill on President Obama's desk?
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Nov 5 2009, 6:00AM

The Rundown, 11/5

With the country still recovering, more or less, from Tuesday night's elections, the media will gradually begin to move away from the lessons of New Jersey, New York, and Virginia, and onto...health care! With a vote expected in the House of Representatives as early as this weekend, it's crunch time for Democratic leaders who will be counting votes and trying to get to the 218 they need to pass Speaker Pelosi's comprehensive bill.

But amid all the health care mayhem, Pelosi will find time to hold a mock swearing-in ceremony for the House's two newest members, which joined the Democratic caucus with victories on Tuesday--Reps.-elect Bill Owens (D-NY) and John Garamendi (D-CA).

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Nov 5 2009, 5:30AM

The Invisible Primary, 11/5

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Mike Huckabee will be in Allentown, Pennsylvania today as part of his 60-city book-signing tour; he also called the selection of Dede Scozzafava as the GOP's candidate in NY-23 a "train wreck"; and he accused the Obama administration of "abandoning" Israel; Tim Pawlenty held a fundraiser in Minneapolis last night; he'll also get some help from Jon Voight; Eric Cantor reveled in Republican Bob McDonnell's win in his home state of Virginia on Fox Tuesday night; Mitt Romney sent out a fundraising email for his PAC; and Sarah Palin's book tour will start November 18.
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Nov 5 2009, 5:00AM

Hurtling Toward 2010, 11/5

The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:

With the 2009 elections out of the way, we're hurtling full force, and...Illinois Senate Candidate Mark Kirk, a heretofore moderate Republican, is fishing for an endorsement from Sarah Palin; Carly Fiorina officially announced her candidacy for Senate in California; and Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) promptly endorsed her conservative primary opponent, Chuck DeVore; conservative Republican Senate candidate Marco Rubio launched a new fundraising site attacking Gov. Charlie Crist (R) for being too Obama friendly; Rand Paul has pulled into the lead of Kentucky's Senate race; and CQ says nine of the 10 most vulnerable House members are Democrats.
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Nov 4 2009, 4:35PM

The Fed Gets It. And What Was the Best Thing Bush Did?

by Matthew Cooper

Greatly relieved that the Fed didn't raise rates today and doesn't seem inclined to. Inflation feels like the last thing to worry about now when the economy is so weak. Yes, there's more reason to worry about inflation in the years ahead--commodity shocks and big spending could bring inflation back. But inflation scaremongers have been worried about its return in a serious way since the 70s and early 80s, and those were exceptional times. Bernanke hasn't done everything right. I think he was too late to the housing crisis and too slow to cut rates initially. But when the crisis came, he was innovative to say the least. Any doubt that his appointment was the best thing George W. Bush did in office? In fact, I ask you: What was the best thing Bush did in office?
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Nov 4 2009, 4:15PM

The Great Political Sort Continues

by Marc Ambinder

New York's  House delegation is now 27-2 Democratic, or 93%.  (If you add in the senators it goes up to 94%.)  For comparison, Texas's House delegation is 63% Republican, Florida's is 60% Republican, and California's (counting Garamendi) is 64% Democratic.
 
In recent memory, has such a large state been so totally dominated by a single party? The largest I can think of are Massachusetts today (100% Dem) and Oklahoma in the late '90s (100% GOP).

While we're at it: Why has the GOP collapsed in rural upstate New York but not in rural central Pennsylvania?  I know there are cultural differences between the two (Yankee vs. Scots-Irish) but it's a striking divide nonetheless.
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Nov 4 2009, 3:40PM

NY 23, Palin 0, Erick Erickson 1

by Marc Ambinder

The CW take, courtesy of SNL's Seth Meyers, is that Sarah Palin's brand problems contributed to the defeat of the candidate she backed in the very special election in New York's 23rd Congressional District. But Republican candidates know who butters their bread. There are signs today that, far from taking Hoffman's defeat as evidence that voters are anxious about attempts to run a hard right candidacy, the GOP mod squad is interpreting Hoffman's surge as a warning.

ITEM: The National Republican Senatorial Committee says it won't spend money in Republican primaries even though it recruited several candidates who now face them. The idea isn't to cede control over candidate recruitment so much as it is to back away from the impression that they're in the business of anointing candidates.

ITEM: Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) endorses conservative California Senate candidate Chuck DeVore on the day that the NRSC-recruited candidate, Carly Fiorna, enters the race. (The NRSC says it's not endorsing.)

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Nov 4 2009, 3:17PM

Sarah From Alaska: The Truth And 2012

by Marc Ambinder

An interview with Shushannah Walshe and Scott Conroy, the authors of some behind-the-scenes reportage about Sarah Palin's vice presidential candidacy, "Sarah from Alaska."

You try hard to be fair in the book, but you chronicle, fairly persuasively, a large number of what seem to be fairly egregious distortions by the candidate. Why does she do this? Why doesn't she, as you wrote, acknowledge uncomfortable truths?

Palin almost always seems outwardly poised and confident in front of a microphone, but she also demonstrates time and again--often in more subtle ways--signs of profound insecurity. It takes a self-confident person to admit mistakes and acknowledge one's own shortcomings, but Sarah Palin is quick to cast aside people who cross her in even minor ways, and her unwillingness to tolerate much dissent often leads to an infallibility syndrome.

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Nov 4 2009, 3:15PM

Making Sense of Maine

by Matthew Cooper

I'll confess to being surprised by the result in Maine. Having spent a lot of time in the state, where my brother has lived for decades, I thought its libertarian streak would prevail. After all, this wasn't a court ruling being overturned by the electorate. The legislature had passed the gay marriage measure and the governor had enthusiastically signed it. Granted the law wouldn't take effect without the ballot measure, but still you had a big chunk of the political class behind the deal, and you have a state where the medical marijuana measure passed overwhelmingly on the same day. (Who were the pro-pot anti-gay marriage voters, I wonder?)

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Nov 4 2009, 3:08PM

No Health Care In '09? Says Who?

by Chris Good

Senior congressional Democrats told ABC News today that getting health care done by the end of the year is unlikely. This, of course, would be a blow to the White House and to Democratic leaders trying to get their bill done before another blown deadline--first it was August, then it was the end of the year, and now...

But who, exactly, is saying there won't be reform by the end of the year?

ABC quotes a senior Democratic leadership aide on background as saying, "Getting this done by the end of the year is a no-go," plus two other "key Congressional Democrats," without specifying which chamber any of the three work in.

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Nov 4 2009, 1:58PM

Axelrod: NY-23 Is A Reminder For Blue Dogs

by Chris Good

Senior White House adviser David Axelrod just made an appearance on MSNBC, and, as host Andrea Mitchell asked him about the elections last night (which, by the way, are being cast by some as an "awful day" for President Obama) and their implications, Axelrod noted that Democrat Bill Owens' surprise victory in New York's conservative 23rd district might pull some Blue Dog Democrats more in line with the president's agenda:
I think as the Blue Dogs welcome their new colleague Congressman Owens and remind themselves that he's the first Democrat to hold that seat in 140 years, since Ulysses S. Grant, and that he campaigned on the Obama program, they'll have to say, 'You know what, we're onto something here if we stick with the program...'

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Nov 4 2009, 12:26PM

The Other Maine Vote

by Chris Good

Voters in Maine disappointed liberals and civil libertarians last night with a vote to repeal the state's legalization of gay marriage, but they also approved something that should make those civil libertarians happy: a provision that will allow for state-approved medical marijuana dispensaries.

The medical marijuana provision passed somewhat resoundingly: 58.6 percent to 41.4 percent, as of this morning, with 93 percent of precincts reporting. It makes Maine the third state with legalized pot stores for medical-marijuana patients (along with Rhode Island and New Mexico), and it's the first state to approve them via a ballot initiative.

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Nov 4 2009, 11:15AM

They've All Got Books

by Chris Good

If you want to run for president in 2012, write a book. All three of the top potential GOP candidates--Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, and Mitt Romney--will be going on book tours to promote theirs between now and the 2010 elections, a time where they'll be looking to beef up their influence and image, take in PAC donations, and generally get some face time out in America, where they'll have to campaign for real, sooner or later, if they want to be president of the United States.

We've heard a lot recently about Sarah Palin's "Going Rogue: An American Life," and the publicity tour she announced yesterday on her Facebook page. It'll include book signings across the nation (Palin says she "hope[s] to cover as much of the country as I can") plus, she also hopes, appearances on Bill O'Reilly, Barbara Walters, Sean Hannity, Greta Van Susteren, Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh, Mark Levin, Laura Ingraham, Dennis Miller, Tammy Bruce, and others.

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Nov 4 2009, 10:05AM

Semiotics Of Marco Rubio's New Website

by Marc Ambinder

Marco Rubio's new $$ site:  semioticians, have a go:  http://www.charlieandobama.com/   

kiss.png
Looks like two guys about kiss, don't it?  Kinda a sensitive issue in Florida, where Gov. Crist was dogged by gay rumors... and where he embraced Barack Obama's stimulus package.  This is an interesting way to link Crist to Obama....maybe especially in light of the way New York's 23rd CD will be interpreted...not as a rejection of bipartisanship but as an acceptance of it.  Anyway, lots going on here.

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Nov 4 2009, 9:59AM

Palin Offers Encouragement to "Citizen Candidates" Of The Future

by Chris Good

Sarah Palin's horse may have not won in New York's 23rd district special election last night, but she offered encouragement for the future Doug Hoffmans of the world in a message posted to her Facebook page last night, about half an hour after multiple networks had called the race for Democrat Bill Owens.

Palin wrote:

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Nov 4 2009, 9:21AM

Question of the Day: Who's The Big Winner?

by Chris Good

Republicans swept in Virginia and took the governor's mansion in New Jersey...but Democrat Bill Owens upset conservative darling Doug Hoffman in New York to stymie the hopes of grassroots conservatives across the country. Who was the big winner on Tuesday night?

BONUS #1: President Obama invested himself in most in New Jersey's gubernatorial race, and Democrat Jon Corzine lost. Was this a referendum on him? If so, what does it say?

BONUS #2: What does Hoffman's loss mean for the grassroots conservative movement?
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Nov 4 2009, 8:06AM

11 Ways To Think About Tuesday Night

by Marc Ambinder

1. The White House has trouble melding its approach to governing, and standards of transparency and brand of being above politics, with a strong-arming White House political operation willing and capable of leading the Democratic party to victory.

2. Barack Obama's political coalition is not invincible and it is not perpetual. The Obama election didn't changed the fundamental political dynamics of off-year elections.

3. The White House's time horizons are longer than and different than the time horizons of House, Senate and gubernatorial candidates. It was more important for, say, Creigh Deeds, to get a health care bill passed by August than it was for President Obama. Obama's building a strong re-election coalition in 2012, but it's going to be frustrating for Democrats in the short term. Obama's approval rating in New Jersey was 57%.

4. The traditional, nonthreatening Republican economic message -- lower taxes, less spending, more disciplined government -- resonates better with independents than the Democratic message -- we need to spend our way out of the recession.

5. Deep recessions are deadly for governors, who must balance their budgets by cutting spending deeply or raising taxes.

6. It's very hard for Democrats to simultaneously turn out the Obama Coalition (younger, more liberal, more minority voters) and suburban independents (particularly older, particularly men).

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Nov 4 2009, 12:11AM

Christie: No More Negative Campaigns

by Chris Good

Chris Christie (R) spent most of his acceptance speech thanking people and talking about how it's time for reform in Trenton, but at the end of the speech he made a poignant critique of his opponent, Gov. Jon Corzine (D), and the negative campaign he ran against Christie (though without naming the Democratic incumbent).

"The talking heads...have said you cannot win an election in New Jersey without being personally negative, without doing smear attack ads on the character of your opponent. Now in February when I announced [my candidacy] or governor, I said I knew that this campaign would get into the gutter, and I would not follow my opponents into that gutter," Christie said.

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Nov 3 2009, 11:12PM

Corzine Concedes: Democrats Have An Agenda To Carry Forward

by Chris Good

New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) actually managed to rally the crowd during his concession speech tonight, and he did it by talking about the national Democratic/progressive agenda--which was somewhat fitting, given that New Jersey was supposed to be the race most apt to be called a referendum on President Obama and his party.

Corzine delivered an applause line when he said his loss "does not mean...the Democrats across this state, across this country, don't have an agenda to carry forward. It's important that we fight for health care, it is important that we make sure our children have the kind of education that I know New Jerseyans want, it's important that we fight for collective bargaining and the rights of labor."

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Nov 3 2009, 9:55PM

Live Election Night Analysis With Marc Ambinder and Matthew Cooper

To follow the 79 most informative Election Night Twitterers, check our our list here.

Marc Ambinder (11:56 p.m.)

Assuming that Bill Owens's victory holds through the counting of absentees, voters in the 23rd did not embrace Doug Hoffman like conservatives embraced him. Enough voters saw Hoffman as a carpetbagger -- he didn't even live in the district -- who was trying to hijack their district for his own ideological ends. This is a Republican district, but it's not a terribly conservative district. It's genteel  more than activist.  The final straw: Hoffman didn't even try to pretend that the election was about the issues of the district. It was all about him -- and what he represented.  In a way, NY 23ers took to Hoffman like Iowans took to Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean in 2003. They wanted a representative, not a movement candidate. They didn't take kindly to all these outsiders telling them how to work.

Marc Ambinder (11:43 p.m.)

A tough night for gays: despite a huge, expensive and sophisticated effort in a moderate, fairly libertarian state, it looks like same-sex marriage will not be approved by voters in Maine.  A domestic partnership initiative in Washington State is TBD.

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Nov 3 2009, 9:55PM

McDonnell Accepts: It's About Jobs

by Chris Good

Bob McDonnell's campaign acceptance speech, as his campaign had been, was about jobs in Virginia. No jabs at President Obama or health care or anything going on in Washington, really. Some general conservatism and one line about keeping taxes down, but mostly just jobs in Virginia.

After running down a list of thank-yous that included RNC Chairman Michael Steele and Missisippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R), McDonnell listed the people he'd met throughout the state that were looking for more job creation and opportunity, and got into his ethos:

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Nov 3 2009, 9:35PM

In Michigan Bellwether, Nofs Pads His Lead

by Gautham Nagesh

It looks like Mike Nofs will win the special election in Michigan's 19th State Senate District. From the Jackson Citizen Patriot:

With 63 of 107 precincts reporting, Mike Nofs, a Republican from Battle Creek, leads with 13,571 votes to Martin Griffin's 6,302 votes in the 19th district state Senate race.

The polls closed at 8 p.m.

Griffin, D-Jackson, and Nofs, are competing to fill the vacancy left by Mark Schauer, who was elected to Congress last fall. The 19th District includes Calhoun County and all of Jackson County except for Summit, Leoni, Grass Lake and Norvell townships.
One other notable electoral result in Michigan: former television reporter Charles Pugh is currently leading the pack and poised to become the president of the Detroit City Council. Pugh would be the city's first openly gay council member. I defer to my colleague Ta-Nehisi on the subject of homophobia the African-American community, but this is an important milestone to note in one of America's largest cities with a black majority.
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Nov 3 2009, 9:06PM

The Equation In New Jersey: Why It's Close

by Marc Ambinder

A Sitting Governor's Approval Rating at less than 40%
PLUS
A perennially disgruntled populace
PLUS
One of the highest taxed states in the country
PLUS
A reconfigured off-off-year electorate
PLUS
Disaffected Democrats
PLUS
A crusading, anti-corruption, independent Republican who, it turns out, made some questionable decisions of his own
PLUS
Attention paid to the challenge's obesity
PLUS
A last minute draping of the presidential coattails
=
.....
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Nov 3 2009, 8:03PM

New Jersey Exit Poll Results

by Marc Ambinder

Courtesy of CBS News: If Jon Corzine wins re-election, he can thank women, who gave him a narrow advantage and who voted at higher proportions than men did. Note the split among moderates and independents; independents, self-described, clearly were more conservative than moderates, which says something about the electorate, rather than, I think, the environment. nj1.png
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Nov 3 2009, 7:32PM

The Virginia Exit Polls

by Marc Ambinder

virginia1.JPGAs everyone's noting, the percentage of young voters dropped off substantially from 2008. What should be noted: young voter turnout is never high in off-off year elections. That's not where Creigh Deeds's problems originated from. Look at his standing among independents. True, independents tend to lean toward the out-party in these elections, but Deeds had a foothold with them before the summer.  Then the summer happened. The summer: GM bailed out. Unemployment spikes. Talk in Washington of a trillion dollar health care bill. Suddenly, independent men, in particular, began to orient themselves toward the basic Republican message: lower taxes, less government intervention, less spending.   Waiting to see the geographic cross-tabs, but I'm betting that, where there's a comparison to be made, you'll find that Deeds did much worse among suburban (Richmond and DC) independents, particularly men, particularly those over 45.

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Nov 3 2009, 6:11PM

Election Livestream

by Chris Good

The latest results and data on the 2009 elections. To follow the 79 most informative Election Night Twitterers, check our our list here.

12:16  Networks calls NY-23 for Democrat Bill Owens, and Democrats take control of the seat for the first time in over a hundred years. The latest results, with 88 percent of precincts reporting, have Democrat Bill Owens at 49 percent, Conservative Doug Hoffman at 46 percent, and since-withdrawn GOP candidate Dede Scozzafava taking five percent.

11:58  Christie's speech is about the "out of control" government in Trenton, corruption, and Corzine's negative campaign: "talking heads...have said you cannot win an election in New Jersey without being personally negative, without doing smear attack ads on the character of your opponent. Now in February when I announced [my candidacy] for governor, I said I knew that this campaign would get into the gutter, and I would not follow my opponents into that gutter."

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Nov 3 2009, 6:00PM

Exits: Economy, Not Obama, Top Issues

by Marc Ambinder

The first round of exit polls come to us courtesy of my friends at CBS News. Please be sure to visit their website first!   First things first: even in a year when the composition of the electorate is dramatically different than the 2008 presidential election, President Obama's approval rating in Virginia is 51% among voters surveyed.  In New Jersey, it's 57%.  Fewer than half of voters for Bob McDonnell, the Republican gubernatorial candidate in VA, say they voted to send a message to Obama. About 38% of voters for Chris Christie, the New Jersey GOPer, tried to send a message, too. 38% of  CreighDeeds voters said their vote for the Democrat was to support Obama.

The big issues: the economy, to 46% of voters in Virginia. In New Jersey, it was the economy -- 31% , followed by property taxes (25%).  25% of voters in Virginia said health care was their top issue compared to 18% who said the same in New Jersey.
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Nov 3 2009, 5:50PM

The DNC Pre-Spins...

by Marc Ambinder

From a Democratic National Committee e-mail, about the relevance of tonight's results:

NRCC Talking Point: "The 2001 Off-Year Elections Have No Bearing On Next Year's Mid-Term Elections. These Races Revolved Around Local Issues And Local Candidates. There Were No Discernable National Trends." NRCC Talking Points: "The 2001 off-year elections have no bearing on next year's mid-term elections. These races revolved around local issues and local candidates. There were no discernable national trends." [Hotline, 11/7/01]



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Nov 3 2009, 5:14PM

NY-23: Who Spent What?

by Chris Good

New York's 23rd district has been a quirky race all around, and, with all the national attention it's drawn, so too has come a good deal of national money. With only one House race happening in '09, where else would it go?

It's also being looked at as an ideological microcosm for the rest of the country, meaning interest groups had a point to prove in this contest, and that's exactly what they tried to do--with money.

So here's a breakdown of who spent what in New York's 23rd district, and who the major players were:

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Nov 3 2009, 2:36PM

The Real Bellwether May Be In Michigan

by Gautham Nagesh

Most of the political class is focused on three races today: gubernatorial contests in Virginia and New Jersey and the Congressional race in New York's 23rd District. But across the country voters are casting ballots for state and local races that could have greater implications for next year's mid-term elections. One example is the special election in Michigan's 19th State Senate District where Republican and heavy favorite Mike Nofs is squaring off with Democrat Martin Griffin to replace Democrat Mark Schauer, who was elected to Congress last fall.

The race has been the focal point for both state parties in recent weeks, leading Michael Meyers of TargetPoint Consulting to call it a potential bellwether for 2010:

If Republican Mike Nofs is successful in retaking the seat and adding a new member to the Republican majority, it will have direct and meaningful consequences on the 2010 election's and its effects will be felt well into the next decade.

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Nov 3 2009, 2:21PM

The Election Line: 2:00 pm ET Update

by Marc Ambinder

An anecdotal canvassing from sources and reports across the nation.

Yes, btw, there ARE exit polls. No, I don't have access to them yet.

Democrats in Virginia say that GOP base precinct turnout is lower than what they'd expect for a race that's not supposed to be close. GOPers need to run 10-11 points ahead in base precincts in the aggregate, as of this AM they were about even. Some anecdotes about lower-than-expected GOP turnout in Richmond too. Note, though, that there's always a drop-off from about 10am to 4:30 pm, and that turnout is still in the range of a solid GOP victory across the tickets.

Turnout in Maine is high. In Bangor, it's over 50%, and that bodes poorly for ME 1, which would overturn the state's new same-sex marriage law.  High turnout seems to favor gay marriage; low turnout seems oppose it.

The folks at Public Policy Polling: "Many people who approve of Obama not voting for Owens, Corzine- that's the candidates' fault, not his."

Republicans are excited about what they're seeing in Virginia and not very excited about seeing about New Jersey.

The weather is great in the 23rd district in New York
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Nov 3 2009, 1:56PM

Think Again: Breaking Through The Election Spin

by Marc Ambinder

"The 2009 races don't mean much for 2010."

Wrong. They set perceptions among candidates, strategists, and the media. They'll determine whether Democrats believe they'll be punished or rewarded for favoring an Obama-identified health care plan. They'll set the tone of (particularly) GOP primaries in House districts in early 2010. They'll contribute to the environment that 2010 candidates find themselves in. We won't know everything, but we'll get a sense of the depth of anti-establishment sentiment, the ability of conservatives to turnout voters in critical races, the skittishness of Democrats, and the way the parties in power respond to the developments. The 2009 races won't tell us whether Republicans will take back the House and Senate in 2010 -- still unlikely, in my opinion -- but they'll help Republicans and Democrats figure out how to run.

"The 2009 races are not a referendum on Obama."

That's what everyone's saying. And it's false. Each election hinges on something different, but where there's a common thread to most of the races, it's out-party, conservative enthusiasm, which is inversely correlated to how well Obama is perceived to be leading the country.

"The 2009 races are mostly a referendum on Obama."

Not true. Virginia rejected a Republican attorney general a few months after September 11, 2001; no one suggested that George W. Bush was to blame. Jon Corzine is much less popular in New Jersey than Obama. He's been the guy on watch as New Jersey's economy tanked. These races are mostly a referendum on the ability of conservatives to turn out their base voters in off-year elections at a time when Democrats are nervous and the economy is in tatters. Nothing concentrates the mind of the opposition like economic discontent, and that force usually benefits the party out of power.

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Nov 3 2009, 1:33PM

Spinning The Spin

by Chris Good

While we're sifting through the Election-Day spin from pundits and analysts and waiting for the real, true-to-life, partisan spin later tonight from politicians and our beloved Democratic and Republican parties, well, we may as well spin that spin. The Awl offers up a checklist of things to watch for in the Sea of Spin:

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Nov 3 2009, 12:59PM

MoveOn Pressures Centrist Dems On Health Care

by Chris Good

If centrist Democratic senators were having a tough time deciding how to vote on health care, MoveOn.org is trying to provide them with a nudge: it's hitting Sens. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and Mary Landrieu (D-LA) with radio ads in their home states, plus direct-mail pieces pressuring those two plus Sens. Ben Nelson (D-NE), Kent Conrad (D-ND), and Olympia Snowe (R-ME).

So far, progressives have backed off pressuring Democrats directly--their strategy has been more to attack insurance companies and remind everyone of the public option's popularity--but now, as we approach the time when senators will have to cast their votes, MoveOn at least has gotten a bit more aggressive.
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Nov 3 2009, 11:56AM

The Most Popular 2009 Election Video Is Phat

by Marc Ambinder

Or, "Fat," as in calling attention to the obesity of one's opponent. That's right -- according to the folks at Google, the ad named "if" by Jon Corzine's gubernatorial campaign was downloaded 100,000 more times than its nearest competitor.  Who's responsible for calling attention to the ad? The media, which picked up on charges, later confirmed, that Corzine's jibe at Chris Christie -- the Republican "threw his weight around" -- was deliberately designed to make fun of Christie's girth and draw out associated stereotypes.
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Nov 3 2009, 10:36AM

Bush Bounces It

by Chris Good

Last night, President Bush threw out the first pitch at game three of the Japan Series (the Japanese analogue to our own World Series), and, well, his arm apparently isn't what it used to be: the former president bounced the pitch before it reached home plate.

Bush has a pretty good track record of first pitches, and, to date, this appears to be the first one he's bounced.

In 2001, buoyed by the swell of patriotism that abounded in Yankee Stadium, Bush delivered a strike from the mound in game three of the World Series. Before the game, Derek Jeter warned him: "Don't bounce it, they'll boo you."

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Nov 3 2009, 10:07AM

Obama To Meet With Lincoln

by Chris Good

So reports TPMDC's Christina Bellantoni: President Obama will meet with Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) in the Oval Office this evening at 5:15, as voters are casting ballots in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York, presumably to talk about health care. Lincoln is one of the Senate's cluster of centrist Democrats, who are thus far still considered swing votes on health reform, though Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's (D-NV) plan for a compromise public option--one that lets states opt out of the program--seems to be gaining momentum (Sen. Ben Nelson of Nebraska, who is perhaps the toughest sell the public option besides Joe Lieberman, indicated in an interview with MSNBC on Friday that he thought Reid's opt-out plan could pass).

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Nov 3 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: A Victory For....

Tomorrow morning, will we see the 2009 elections as a victory for Democrats, Republicans, or neither?
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Nov 3 2009, 6:00AM

The Rundown, 10/3

It's Election Day 2009! It seems like yesterday that America elected Barack Obama its 44th president, and now here we are, back voting again on gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, plus a much-anticipated special election in New York's 23rd district, and an anti-gay-marriage ballot initiative in Maine.

If Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman wins in New York, all you-know-what will break loose as conservatives everywhere jump for joy. So stay tuned to Atlantic Politics for news and analysis on that and the other races, so you know whether to avoid the streets for fear of exuberant tea partiers.

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Nov 3 2009, 6:00AM

The Invisible Primary, 10/3

Tracking the GOP race to 2012

Sarah Palin is robo-calling in Virginia's gubernatorial race, though the GOP candidate hasn't embraced her; she also took a swipe at independent New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett on her Facebook page; where she also sparred with Vice President over energy policy; more people want to read upcoming memoirs by Condoleezza Rice and President Bush than Palin's "Going Rogue," according to a Vanity Fair/CBS poll; Newt Gingrich will appear with Al Sharpton at a high school in Montgomery, Alabama today as part of their Education Road Tour; he was also "deeply upset" that Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava, whom he had endorsed, decided to back Democrat Bill Owens after dropping out of New York's 23rd district special election; and Mike Huckabee is planning a 60-city tour to promote his Christmas book.
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Nov 3 2009, 5:00AM

Hurtling Toward 2010, 10/03

The 2010 midterms are just around the corner (sort of). Here's what's happening:

Not only is former Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava backing former rival Democrat Bill Owens in New York's 23rd district, she's recorded robo-calls for him; Vice President Joe Biden campaigned for Owens; two polls show Conservative Doug Hoffman leading that race; a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll shows New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) leading Chris Christie (R) 43-41, but the poll didn't include independent candidate Chris Daggett; Florida Gov. and Senate candidate Charlie Crist's (R) approval ratings dropped to 42 percent according to a St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll;
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Nov 2 2009, 4:40PM

It Doesn't Mean Squat

by Joshua Green

Along with tarot cards and goat entrails, a lot of people believe they can divine hidden meaning from the results of off-year elections, like the ones in Virginia, New York and New Jersey on Tuesday. I'm skeptical. For one thing, nobody bothers to wait for the polls to close anymore--the "meaning" of the results has been hammered out in advance. A GOP sweep will be taken as proof that conservatives are resurgent and President Obama's agenda is in trouble, while Democratic wins in New York and New Jersey--Virginia is hopeless--will demonstrate that conservatives have gone off the deep end. (Any other combination will mean a dull night for cable television.)

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Nov 2 2009, 4:18PM

Clinton Historian Seeks To Dispel "Cartoon Images"

by Tali Yahalom

The Clinton Tapes, a 720-page chronicle of eight years worth of candid, once-secret conversations between oral historian Taylor Branch and former President Bill Clinton, travels familiar terrain of the Clinton years, touching on military initiatives (the wars in Bosnia and Kosovo), international diplomacy (Clinton's friendship with the late Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin) and titillating anecdotes (Russian President Boris Yeltsin once ended up in his underwear, drunk, on Pennsylvania Avenue).

Before embarking on this 17-year-long project, Branch, the Pulitzer Prize-winning author of Martin Luther King Jr.'s three-volume biography, had denounced politics after growing disenchanted as a campaign volunteer during the 1972 McGovern campaign -- for which he, incidentally, worked closely with Clinton in Texas. But weeks after Clinton won the presidency in November 1992, the then president-elect summoned Branch to a clandestine dinner at Katherine Graham's house and asked him to be the official historian of the eight years that were yet to come. I met Branch last Monday night at Politics and Prose, where we talked about his no-holds-barred approach to the relatively controversial project -- Clinton kept these cassettes in the back of his sock drawers for fear of his own aides finding out and leaking them to the media. A slightly edited transcript of our conversation follows:

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Nov 2 2009, 4:13PM

Video: Guantanamo Detainees Talk About Experience, After Release

by Chris Good

The American Civil Liberties Union, which has represented Guantanamo Bay detainees as they challenge their detentions in court, has put together a video following former detainees, post-release. The five men talk about their time in the prison, physical and sexual abuse they endured, and their returns home to the UK:
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Nov 2 2009, 3:30PM

What If Hoffman Loses?

by Chris Good

National conservative figures got involved in New York's 23rd district special election, and they got involved in a big way. As Politics Daily's Jill Lawrence points out, they eventually succeeded in muscling the Republican candidate--the pro-abortion-rights, pro-same-sex-marriage Dede Scozzafava--out of the race with a slew of endorsements, money, and criticism.

Now we are left with a race between Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman, upon whom the hopes and dreams of the conservative movement are pinned. He's an acolyte of Glenn Beck's 9/12 quasi-tea-party movement: having signed Beck's 9/12 candidate pledge, he's an official 9/12 candidate--part of a (possibly) new breed of conservative that sits to the right of the national GOP, and which, could, some think, rise to prominence in 2010 if grassroots conservatives sustain their energy...and if that energy is something candidates can thrive on enough, at least, to think that they have a legitimate shot at winning seats in the House of Representatives.

So what if Hoffman loses?

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Nov 2 2009, 1:30PM

So Many Assumptions, So Little Time

by Marc Ambinder

The Democrats assume that independents won't find the GOP an attractive vehicle for their disaffection, while Republicans assume that independents will unite against the Democratic Party's agenda in Congress: health care reform, cap-and-trade, the stimulus package, liberal social policy legislation.  That means that Republicans will spend 2010 attacking the Democratic Congress, while Democrats will spend 2010 attacking the Republican brand -- reminding independents why they disassociated with the party in the first place.  

A political assumption among Democrats is that health care reform will be popular in the short run -- and when the implementation phase begins, it may be unpopular again -- but it will, in the long-term, be a bragging point for the party.

A political assumption among Republicans is that Democrats will get no credit for health care reform.

A patronizing assumption among Democrats is that Republican Party leaders will fail to find attractive, moderate candidates and run them in appropriate districts in 2010.

A patronizing assumption among Republicans is that Nancy Pelosi isn't smart enough to figure out how to give centrist Democrats leeway to buck the party in 2010.

A corollary assumption for Democrats is that Republicans cannot build a national movement.

A corollary assumption for Republicans is that Democrats consistently underestimate the long-term brand failure of liberalism.  

An unspoken assumption among Democrats is that the economy has put people into a funk. The quicker the economy improves, the more attenuated the incipient populism will be. (You'll never hear Democrats say this, shades of Jimmy Carter's "malaise" speech, a word, of course, he never actually uttered.)

An unspoken assumption among Republicans is that cultural politics, dampened by the failure of the Bush presidency and the collapse of the economy last year, are back and tilting the electorate decidedly. Broadly defined, this includes fears about multiculturalism, political correctness, gay rights, and immigration.  
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Nov 2 2009, 12:35PM

Mem-wars: More Americans Want To Read Rice's Book Than Palin's, Bush's

by Chris Good

Sarah Palin's memoir has the buzz--it even has a liberal-authored spoof on the way--and President Bush has been out of the public eye since flying away in a helicopter on the day of President Obama's inauguration, meaning his upcoming book will be the first that most Americans have heard from him in the past nine montyhs.

But more Americans actually want to read former Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice's upcoming memoir, according to a poll by Vanity Fair and CBS.

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Nov 2 2009, 12:26PM

Why Are Democrats Afraid Of The Debt?

by Marc Ambinder

A colloquy on debt politics follows. Earlier today, I wrote this:

Faced with the prospect of a obliquely angeled "V" shaped recession, the president's policy planners have been trying to figure out how to create jobs in an economy that is newly conditioned to be lean. Trouble is, of course, that the range of policy options favored by Democrats -- more spending, more government transfers -- are at odds with the second fundamental reality of the economy: the deficit and mounting debt. 

A good question: What in the hell do I mean?  The only reason why deficits and debt are realities is because political pundits like me say they're realities. The real realty -- what's actually producing the anxiety that's being yoked to the debt and deficit -- is the inability or unwillingness of the government to spend what it needs to spend in order to resuscitate demand.  Truth is that compared to the other economic problems we face, debt isn't much of a problem. But -- and this was the point I was trying to make -- it's become a problem because political elites have willed it to be a problem (and Americans seem to agree.)

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Nov 2 2009, 12:07PM

CW Gets It Right: Governor's Races Will Be Supremo In 2010

by Marc Ambinder

The conventional wisdom about 2010 can be summarized as follows; Republicans will pick up some seats in the House, maybe a few in the Senate, and Democrats will retain control. More and more, though, that CW is turning to the governor's races as the most consequential. I think the CW is right. Nearly 80 percent of Americans will choose their state leaders on the eve of the first and only congressional redistricting of the Obama era. Democrats have the chance to consolidate gains at the state legislature level, and Republicans have the chance to prevent the Democrats from exploiting the national/natural demographic drift toward the Democrats. Including New Jersey and Virginia, Democrats will be trying to hold onto 22 seats; Republicans will try to keep 16 seats.

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Nov 2 2009, 10:52AM

An Ironic Echo For the RNC

by Marc Ambinder

In a new radio ad, the Republican National Committee tells voters in New York's 23rd Congressional District that their choice Tuesday will "echo" from Albany to Washington. It's an effective message, but it's also ironic, coming from the same party vessel that endorsed the candidate who dropped out -- and from the party that spent $1 million on said dropped-out candidate. Apparently, the message has already echoed in Michael Steele's office...  Note: the National Republican Congressional Committee spent the $1 million and not the RNC headquarters organization itself.
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Nov 2 2009, 10:43AM

Decision Time?

by Chris Good

Since Gen. Stanley McChrystal submitted his assessment of the war in Afghanistan to the Pentagon in September, President Obama has been weighing it, meeting frequently with his national security team for deliberations on the 40,000-troop request--and, all the while, waiting for Afghanistan to hold its run-off election on November 7. It gave the president more time to make his decision, avoided introducing an element that could affect Afghan politics, and would have given him firmer footing on which to announce his new policy--namely, knowing who Afghanistan's next president would be.

Now that run-off election won't happen: President Hamid Karzai's challenger, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, withdrew over the weekend and Afghanistan's election commission has subsequently declared Karzai the winner. Obama's time frame has been thrown off. Perhaps this means he'll announce his decision soon; perhaps it doesn't.

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Nov 2 2009, 10:17AM

Rubio Prepares To Be King....

by Marc Ambinder

It's good to be Marco Rubio these days. The South Florida conservative has been all-but-anointed the heir to the grassroots energy that's collected around Doug Hoffman's candidacy in New York's 23rd Congressional District. Today, Rubio's campaign plans to launch what it considers the "most powerful online fundraising site" in Florida history. That's saying something, because Florida's a typically beneficent state for Republican donors. The campaign wouldn't provide details, but it did explicitly link the creation of the site with Hoffman's expected victory. It's also helpful, most assuredly, that newspapers have taken to publicizing opponent Gov. Charlie Crist's precipitous drop in the polls. Mr. Rubio knows where his bread is buttered.
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Nov 2 2009, 10:13AM

The White House: Let Conservatives Win... (For Now)

by Marc Ambinder

The White House is playing it cool. Faced with the prospect of losing governor's mansions in Virginia and New Jersey, a would-be pick-up seat in New York, maybe a few liberal policy referendums and the mayoralty of Atlanta,  Obama administration political and policy planners will put on their Snuggies Tuesday night and watch FlashFoward.  It's the future they're concerned about, not the present.

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Nov 2 2009, 6:30AM

Question Of The Day: Which 2009 Ballot Is Most Important For 2010?

On Tuesday, voters will go to the polls to cast ballots on a governor's race in Virginia, another in New Jersey, a House race in upstate New York, and a gay marriage amendment in Maine. Which will have the most bearing on 2010?
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