A crazy day of news about Rudy Giuliani: after The New York Times' report that he won't run for governor in 2010, the New York Daily News now reports that Giuliani will run for U.S. Senate in 2010, taking on incumbent Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) for Hillary Clinton's old seat.
And--perhaps more of a bombshell--a source said Giuliani could use a Senate campaign (and victory) as a stepping stone to run for president, again, in 2012.
Giuliani will make a formidable Senate candidate, should he run--in fact, if he enters the race, he will likely become the frontrunner.
He polls well ahead of Gillibrand, who is considered vulnerable: he bested her 53-36 in a Siena poll released in October, while a September Marist poll gave Giuliani a 51-40 lead.
Former New York Gov. George Pataki is the other big name on the Republican side. Giuliani likely has the advantage, as he consistently outperforms Pataki in head-to-head polling against Gillibrand. Pataki gets the edge against Gillibrand 46-41, according to to Siena; see more Pataki/Gillibrand matchup polling here. To my knowledge (and please correct me in the comments section if I'm wrong), no major polls have been conducted among New York Republicans on a potential Giuliani/Pataki primary contest.
With the mood the country is in right now, I predict Rudy will win the Senate race if he enters it.
Chris,
The Marist poll that was released today shows Giuliani crushing Pataki in a potential GOP primary, 71-24 percent.
http://race42008.com/2009/11/19/poll-watch-marist-new-york-2010-political-survey/
This could be just a repeat of the early polling on the 2008 GOP presidential nomination, where Rudy was the front-runner based on name recognition. The same could be happening here, since many more New Yorkers are familiar with him than with Gillibrand.
FWIW, a Rudy spokesperson says the Senate thing isn't true.
That's nice for Rudy that his Senate polling looks good a year out if he decides to go that route, but that won't survive real campaigning.
The New York GOP is the biggest state party disaster in the country. NYC is as Democratic and liberal as ever, and upstate has gone from red to bluish-purple. Dems now hold a shocking 27 of 29 U.S. House seats and all statewide elected offices, in addition to both chambers of the state legislature even after the state Senate was gerrymandered to protect the GOP. Repeatedly in elections early polling shows a Republican on top in a high-profile race, only to have the Democrat charge to victory. The Republicans got a few nice local wins earlier this month in various scattered places, but lost plenty on that same day including NY-23.
The fundamentals of New York state politics have become so heavily anti-Republican that it would bite Rudy sooner or later. Gillibrand, meanwhile, has done nothing to hurt herself except to accept the Senate appointment from a politically tainted Governor. She'll build political support as NYC voters get to know her. No one is paying attention now which is all these horse race polls reflect, but when they do, she needs only to run a competent campaign to win. There's not much for Rudy to attack her on that makes her unpopular in a state like New York, while Rudy himself offers plenty of offer to nail him.
DCCcylone is dead right. Guiliani can't survive a campaign, and in fact he'll pull out at too late a moment.
He will eventually wilt. He's beset by his megalomania and and plagued by his own personal corruption and that of his friends.