New Jersey Exit Poll Results

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Nov 3 2009, 8:03 pm by Marc Ambinder

Courtesy of CBS News: If Jon Corzine wins re-election, he can thank women, who gave him a narrow advantage and who voted at higher proportions than men did. Note the split among moderates and independents; independents, self-described, clearly were more conservative than moderates, which says something about the electorate, rather than, I think, the environment.

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Comments (1)

jfxgillis November 3, 2009 8:51 PM

Marc:

independents, self-described, clearly were more conservative than moderates,

Ahah. Proof of a phenomenon I've been thinking about and that you conventional-wisdom purveyors should probably integrate into your thinking.

I submit that most of the recent additions to the indy column has been disaffected Repubs. So when you see a poll comparing "independents" favorability for Obama, say, and compare it to the the percentage of indys who voted for Obama in '08, those are DIFFERENT POPULATIONS of voters. It's not necessarily the case that Obama is losing independents; rather, the Republicans are losing self-identifiers, making the indy cohort more conservative.