"Like it or not, if Sarah Palin decides to seek our nation's highest office, she has a shot," Matthew Dowd, the chief strategist for the Bush/Cheney '04 campaign, writes in today's Washington Post, before offering Palin a list of advice on how to get there.
Dowd draws a parallel between Palin and Obama, in that each are beloved by members of their own party, and not liked so much by members of the other:
Polls show that Palin's favorability numbers are a mirror image of those of Obama. She is respected and loved by the Republican base, while Democrats despise her. Granted, independent voters have significant reservations about her capability to be president, and this would be a hurdle in the general election. But to win the Republican nomination, Palin needs only to get enough support from the base to win early key states. Already, in nearly every poll today, she has a level of support that makes her a viable primary candidate. Just look at the crowds and the buzz her book tour is drawing.
And it's true: Obama is liked by 88 percent of Demcorats and disliked by 93 percent of Republicans, according to his latest major favorability poll, conducted by Research 2000 for Daily Kos.
Palin, meanwhile, is liked by 70 percent of Republicans and disliked by 62 percent of Democrats, according to Fox.
Dowd's point is that Palin could very well win the GOP nomination, but it's important to remember that not so many people are Republicans these days: about 22 percent of the country identifies as Republican according to Pollster.com's average, vs. 34.6 percent as Democratic and 34.8 percent as independent, meaning a successful GOP primary candidate might not fare as well in the general.
Obama outperforms her among independents: 54 percent like him, and 49 percent like her, according to those two polls.
That said, Dowd gives some good advice to Palin: get out of the bubble of the high-profile media frenzy that surrounds her, stop sparring with Levi, start taking more responsibility for things that didn't go well (like the Couric interview), let criticisms slide, travel the country to listen to people and understand what their fears are, and do some Sunday shows.
One of Palin's problems right now is a relatability gap. At American Thinker, Claude Sandoff references the "deep, joyful connection Palin makes with the middle class," but for every person with whom she connects on that deep, joyful level, there's another who finds her completely alien--a conservative ideologue that floats above the political scene, sending messages down through Facebook, insulated from serious stages of communication by thousands of fanatical followers, and her security detail, at Barnes & Noble stores: not a supremely relatable person, as her supporters see her, but a unipolar force of conservative political energy, and a personality they don't understand.
If one of Palin's greatest attributes is her realness, Dowd's quite practical advice seems to be about acquiring political weight through more conventional means, breaking out of her cult-of-personality appeal, and becoming more real to everyone else.
A Sarah Palin that let criticisms slide, refused to get into petty arguments and took responsibility for things that went wrong would fundamentally NOT be Sarah Palin.
"Palin is . . . disliked by 62 percent of Democrats ACCORDING TO FOX."
Well, then, that settles it. FOX would never play fast & loose with the facts.
Sarah Palin was a subject of nightly news in Germany last night (ARD's "Tagesthemen"; you can watch at their website or via iTunes podcast). Let's just say that the coverage was not flattering.
Ahem.
Who the heck cares how many people "like" her? NOBODY wants her as president, like her or not. The last poll CNN did said three quarters of the country, including almost half of *Republicans*, think she's unqualified. And this is after everyone in the nation was extensively exposed to her as a vice presidential candidate through an entire national election campaign and know what they're talking about, those are fairly well entrenched views. And I don't think spending the next couple years on self promotion tours after resigning a governership is goinbg to move those numbers in a favorable direction.
If Dowd thinks she has a shot based on "likeability" numbers he belongs in an asylum. But one could dream she managed to pull out a primary win in 2012 and become the nominee... it would be the most spectacular bloodbath *ever*.
Run, Sarah, run!
Mr. Good: Isn't talking about Gov. Palin a lot less important than talking about health care??
So far you've totally ignored the elephant in the "re-form" room: the budget gimmickry used to argue that the cost is "only" $850 billion over 10 years and that the plan reduces the budget deficit by $170 billion.
These numbers are total BS. The CBO's 10 year (from date of passage) projection has 10 years of tax increases and five years of benefits. Beginning when first fully implemented, the cost is $1.8 trillion with a corresponding huge jump in the deficit.
If Saturday Night Live's fake Chinese president understands the gimmicks, why won't NPR tell us? I've contributed to NPR for years, but I'm sick and tired of their pro-government takeover bias. I'm not giving them one penny anymore.
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/another_set_of_cooked_books_loFmlm5OEIdYuzuJySXBaN
Tuesday, November 24, 2009 11:34:41 AM
My mistake: the Palin story to which I referred was on ZDF's "Heute Journal" for 11/23, which is also available at www.zdf.de or as podcast at iTunes.
"not so people are Republicans these days"
Proofreading really is a lost arf, isn't it?
Marc,
Come on. That Kos Poll you cite says that 20% of the respondents aren't even voters for goodness sake. It has 14% black and 12% hispanic when they were 13 and 9 respectively last year in what was record turnout. It has whites at 71%, 3 pts less than the 74 they were last yr which was a record low. 26% black/hispanic when the total was 22% last yr. In terms of the actual population, that's way more blacks and hispanics in the sample and way fewer whites.
Of course Obama is going to do well in a poll that oversamples blacks and undersamples whites. And it has Obama at 46 among whites. Gallup has him at 39. Both are among adults. Among voters he's likely lower. I wouldn't trust the Kos poll too much.
BTW, I notice you didn't post how that same Kos poll has Pelosi and Reid at around 25% approval, even less among Independents. Nice to see the public is so supportive of the 2 main backers of health care reform.
But even if it is true, it's not a huge plus for Obama. So he's at 54 among Is in one poll and she's at 49 among Is in another poll. Pretty much the same thing The FOX/OD poll btw is of Registered Voters, not just adults. I'd suggest if they polled adults in that poll, she'd be equal to or higher than the 54 he got.
And no one believes that 22% of the country is Republican. Even last year in the worst year for the GOP in ages and facing a surefire defeat the electorate was 32% GOP. Again, Rasmussen and Gallup have a much more realistic spread. GOP in low to mid 30s.
Obama was down to 44 among Is in Gallup. 43 in Quinippiac. 33 in Rasmussen. 47 in PPP(a dem firm). Why didn't you mention that? Seems the 49 for Palin in the poll you mentioned is HIGHER than the 44 of Obama in any of those 4 polls. She was at 41 among Is in Gallup as of the middle of October. So she's certainly in the same general area.
State polls are even worse. He was at 42 among Is in that conservative state of Wisconsin, a state that hasn't gone GOP since 1984. Barely at 51% overall in NJ(which means low 40s at best among Is. Below 50 in pretty much all the red states that flipped in 08(OH, FL, VA, NC, IN, IA, etc...).
As for taking responsibility for the Couric interview, she has. She said she choked, she said it it was bad performance, she said it was her responsibility. What more do you want? She merely pointed out some of the issues she had with the editing and questioning and media overkill. I.e. her 12 questions on abortion and ridiculous raped by your father hypotheticals(with no such questions to Biden), her editing out a bunch of answers on energy and other issues, for some reason not showing footage where she gave perfectly fine answers, lying on the transcript about what she said to make her look bad(changing words aournd), getting on her about personal things but not asking Biden one question about his plagiarism, cheating at law school, lying about his academic record, etc... But she took full responbility for her answers.
In any event, I doubt that mad anything to do with the results of the election. If VP interviews matterd, Joe Biden's whopper that FDR went on TV was far worse than anything she said. He did ok.
And insulated from followers by a security detail(secret service), floating above the scene, not relatable, a unipolar conservative(liberal)force they don't understand? Hmm...Reminds me of some other fellow. To use a Seinfeld reference, Palin is in many ways the Bizarro Obama. They are way more alike than they are different.
So she has some security in public settings? Who cares? She's personally met and shook hands with around 25,000 people in 10 states in the past week or so. I'd say that's pretty personable.
I know most Americans don't relate to a guy who's out playing Golf and going on date nights on Broadway while American troops are at war and their commander is requesting urgent assistance. Who bows down to the Emperor of Japan.
She's doing just fine. Obama needs to worry about himself and that people are now seeing him for the far left liberal he is. The centrist mask has slipped.
Meanwhile, I'll be waiting for the apology from The Atlantic about the Southern Terrorists who killed that census worker.
If you really think Obama is a far left liberal, you're nuts.
If Obama was a far left liberal, we'd already have a full Public Option applicable to every state, we'd already be out of Iraq and Afghanistan, DOMA would be repealed, there would be no continuing Wall Street bailout, the first stimulus would have been double the size with a federal jobs program, climate change legislation would be passed, and all the currently open judicial nominees would be filled with liberals.
So, seriously, explain that to me. If as a far left liberal I am so unhappy, how is Obama a far left liberal? You. Are. Nuts.
If Sarah Palin becomes president in 2012, it will prove only one thing: the Mayans were right.
The Fox poll cited has Oprah Winfrey at 61% approval, 14 points higher than Palin. I guess that means she's got an even better chance in 2012, maybe that's why she's quitting her talk show.
Doing well in a likeability poll doesn't mean people like the idea of the subject as president.
Also, if Obama is vulnerable in 2012, one factor will probably be perceived as his youth and relative inexperience. How does Palin improve upon that? If we were wrong to elect someone as untested as Obama, why would the country turn to her?
Publius,
Ever take a nonpartisan breath? Your post reads like the RNC's daily talking points.
First, lots of polls show the GOP at their lowest membership ebb in decades. The fact that YOU don't believe it because it might be painful doesn't mean "no one believes it."
Second, people can't relate to Obama because he plays golf during war? Now you're getting desperate, attacking Obama in any way possible regardless of consistency with prior events. Bush too played golf numerous times during both wars he started. He also took Laura out to dinner and shows. I'm guessing this didn't outrage you in 2004 or 2005, etc.
Third, your obsession with approval ratings is a fool's errand. Successful presidents like Clinton and Reagan had far worse polls during their first years. It makes you feel good to watch polls drop because you're on the winning side for a change, but it's a dead end. The polls only matter in the imaginary day to day contest in your own head; they don't matter in the real contest being played out over years at a time. Believe me. I was in your position during the 8 years of the Cheney-Bush debacle. Moreover, no matter how low Obama's polls go, he's unlikely to approach Bush's historic lows for years on end in his 2nd term.
Finally, based on your critique of the DK poll, you seem to know something about demographics. If so, you must be aware that your beloved party is drowning in a demographic sea--Research2000 may overestate minority numbers today, but those same figures would be UNDERstatements just 5-10 years from now.
FWIW, President Bush did stop playing golf.
As pointed out, Bush stopped playing Golf back in 2003. Hence, it didn't bother me in 2004 or 2005. It did bother me in 2001-3. I guarantee you Sarah palin wouldn't be playing golf. And if she were to, it certainly wouldn't be the abysmal 20+ handicap that the Preisdent is reported to have. Meanwhile, Obama has already played MORE Golf before Thanksgiving of his first term than Bush played in all his 8 yrs. Nice try, though. Maybe we should start calling him Tiger?
Here's Bush:
"I don't want some mom whose son may have recently died to see the Commander-in-Chief playing golf," Bush said in an interview with Yahoo and Politico.com.
"I feel I owe it to the families to be as -- to be in solidarity as best as I can with them. And I think playing golf during a war just sends the wrong signal," he said.
I guess Obama doesn't care if some mom sees him out on the links, swinging the clubs around, making like Ty Webb and Al Czervik at Bushwood.
As for approaching Bush's historic lows, he doesn't need to approach 25%. Merely being in the 40s is enough. No incumbent has won with below 50%. Ironically, for all the Palin haters it was Bush's 25% that was one of the main reasons Obama won in the first place. Even with Bush's 25% approval, Obama still only got less than 53%, a lower % of the 2 party vote and fewer states than even Clinton got in either of his wins. Given Bush's #s Obama should have had a Reagan/LBJ type landslide. McCain outpolled Bush's #s by 80%. No other candidate has ever come close to those #s.
And who cares what the demographics are in 10 years? I was simply pointing out that Marc was citing a poll that vastly oversmapled Blacks and Hispanics and undersampled whites. Surely that makes a difference with Obama since he is vastly more popular with one group than with the other. But the bottom line is tha teven those polls he uses don't really prove anything. One is 54 the other is at 49. Given MOE they're roughly equal. And Obama is the savior President. He should be much higher than an unemployed quitter, right?
Again, no one believes that when the next election comes around, the GOP will make up 22% of the vote. No one. Well, maybe you do, but most informed people don't.
As a proud Obama delegate, I must say that I am rooting for Palin. I think if she were to get the nomination, it would be a catastrophe for the R's...all the way down the ballot. The Republican big wigs also know this and will NEVER allow her to make it far enough in the process to where this could reasonably occur. Simply put, she's not a serious person, and unless we slip into Idiocracy overnight, I do not think the mainstream media will allow this (and yes, Fox News is now THE mainstream media).
Ultimately, I think the Palin VP pick reveals the true cynicism and sarcasm of modern day Republicans; 'If we pick a woman, then we'll get Hillary's voters'. I was in Denver chatting with Hillary supporters the morning of the Palin pick and they thought it was funny...they said it reminded them of why they were Democrats.
I think this cynicism will foster itself again if Rubio's star shines as bright as I think it will. Republican problems with diversity and diversity candidates must be corrected if they are to remain a viable party; otherwise they'll slip into permanent minority status (forgive the pun). This is why I think Rubio will be on the ticket in either '12 or '16 as a VP. Latinos are the battleground for the party's future!
Dowd's statistical analysis looks good on paper, but not much else.
One of the things that's forgotten about these days is that in the election, Obama's main message was one of pulling people with different ideas and beliefs together. He wasn't elected in a landslide because he ran as a far left candidate; he ran on a narrative that "Blue States" and "Red States" were irrelevant, and that we were all Americans. You might argue that once elected he has not governed that way, but that's not particularly relevant to the question of how he got there.
Palin, on the other hand, is building her base from the opposite direction. On the plus side, it means that the base will be far more passionate about her than the left ever was about Obama. (How quickly we forget that the base came to Obama kicking and screaming, angry that he had spoiled things for the narrative they written long ago about Hillary.) However, in order for her to hit the President Palin mark, she will need votes outside that base. It is possible, (but doubtful) she might have achieved this had she come out of Alaska reinventing herself as an outsider who had arrived to build bridges. Instead, she's positioned herself even more as someone who will stand up to the evil socialist elites, immoral secularists, and fake conservative that make up... er, about 75% of the country.
That in mind, how does she have shot? Really?
She has a shot the same way Obama had a shot. The voters will be so fed up with the current administratin that they'll give the other guy a chance.
The same way Clinton had a shot. The public was so fed up with Bush they gave him a chance.
The same way Reagan a shot. The public was so fed up with Carter they gave him a chance.
She has a shot in pretty much the same way anybody beats an incumbent. Because the voters have had enough of him and want a change.
You talk about how Obama got to the WH. I'm not arguing with you. People did think he was a centrist. They bought into his red state/blue state bamboozling to use a term of his. They were hoodwinked, to use another term of his. No one believes that anymore. He couldn't give that 2004 DNC speech today. A recent Gallup Poll showed that where after the election 45% apiece thought be liberal and moderate, now 55% think he's liberal and 34% think he's moderate. People have caught on to who he really is. He won't be able to get away with it again, People will know in 2012 that they'll be voting for a far left liberal. So the issue is not how he got there, it's how he stays there. Forget the last election. Obama will have to run in the next election.
And so far the only change most Americans have seen is that close to 4 million of them have changed their employment status since he took office. Changed to unemployed, that is. That the deficit has changed from below 500B to above 1.5T. That the Natl Debt is at an all time high. That spending is at record levels. That he's pushing a health care plan that according to the pollster avg is opposed by more than a 10 pt margin by most Americans, and by way more than 10 among Independents. I could continue. The point is, things will a lot different in 2012 if he keeps going down his current path. If Americans believe that they ended up not with his first term, but with Carter's second.
And as for Palin not getting beyond her base, independents vote on the economy. They always have. Look it up. If Obama is unpopular and unemployment is still high, the deficit, debt, etc... they'll vote for whoever the GOP nominee is.
This reminds of some of the same things people said about Reagan in 77-79. "He's far too conservative. He'll never win. He's a warmonger in a Stetson. He's just too extreme. Remember his 90 billion dollar blunder in 76, what an idiot. He'll never get past the far right. He's too old." The list goes on. The Carter folks couldn't wait for the dunderheaded actor to get the nomination. Oops.
So of course she has a shot. Would she win? Who knows? So much can and will happen between now and Nov, 2012. But to say she or any other Republican for that matter doesn't have s hot is rediculous.