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Nov 2 2009, 6:30 am by Chris Good

Question Of The Day: Which 2009 Ballot Is Most Important For 2010?

On Tuesday, voters will go to the polls to cast ballots on a governor's race in Virginia, another in New Jersey, a House race in upstate New York, and a gay marriage amendment in Maine. Which will have the most bearing on 2010?

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Comments (7)

mesquito66

VA and New Jersey, naturally. Statewide races. Poised to deliver a devastating electoral repudiation of Obamism.

jennis psycho

Virginia is poised to be a blowout sweep, as will just about any election in a purple area of the country this year and next, unless the economy improves considerably; so, the important one is New Jersey, to see if the damage from Obama is going to reach far into hardcore blue areas.

Deborah

NJ and VA are going to be very local: the person who runs your state is pretty divorced from the party in charge of the White House or Congress, and very closely tied to the state house--in a one-party state do you want to keep it in check, do you trust one candidate to work better with a mixed state house, and so on. There is no one on my local ballot I can or would vote for in order to Make a Statement about Obama or Cheney or any other national political figure. VA is set to be a model for 2010 of how to run a good campaign and how to run from damaging revelations about your past, but that's true even if the Republican loses. Deeds is a model of how not to run a campaign.

The marriage amendment in Maine is interesting but gay marriage seems to have left center stage--regardless of how Maine goes people won't build their campaigns around it in 2010. Conservatives want to seem to have more than one issue, and progressives fear driving people off.

So I'll stick with the conventional wisdom that whatever happens in NY 23 is going to embolden wingnuttia to put in more carpetbaggers who can't answer a damn thing about local issues and see if a passionate 10-20% of the electorate can put them over. Win or narrow loss, it will be proof that purging the party of all moderate elements is the way to go. Only a complete blowout (very unlikely) might hamper that conclusion, and because H has other problems to blame a loss on, the teabaggers would not be deterred.

jb (Replying to: Deborah)

"put in more carpetbaggers who can't answer a damn thing about local issues"

Carpetbagger as in the former US Senator and current Secretary of State?

Deborah (Replying to: jb)

Hillary was a carpetbagger in the sense of coming from away. She could go toe-to-toe with any local NY politician about NY issues, though, because the woman does her homework. And she was popular upstate because of it--as weird* as I think it was for NY to elect her, she did work hard for upstate. And the trade of "national name, instant influence, but not actually from here" makes more sense than "ideologically pure, beloved of people who are not from here, but not actually from here."


*It would have been weird for IL to elect Keyes to the seat Obama held, and it will hypothetically be weird if NY 23 elects a guy who from away who also fails at local issues. (He would have known what questions the local paper would ask had he purchased a copy and read the editorial page, where they listed the questions.)

Carwin

"VA and New Jersey, naturally. Statewide races. Poised to deliver a devastating electoral repudiation of Obamism."

Given that absolutely no one votes in these things, how is this going to be a repudiation of anything? Republicans are pissed right now and can probably get out the vote better than complacent Democrats. Given the relative small size of the voters, at the end of the day, if Republicans win it will just confirm that the economy sucks (Obama didn't fix it in 10 months OMG!!!) and Republicans are still upset at losing the 2008 election.

Why does everyone insist that this will mean more? Are you guys that bored and in need of a new narrative? And are Republicans that depressed that they will uphold three small elections as a sign of a rising majority?

Deborah (Replying to: Carwin)

Are you guys that bored and in need of a new narrative?
Got it in one, I think. Though there's a distinction between "should you draw conclusions from a scattering of races in an off-year" (no) and "will you draw conclusions from a scattering of races in an off-year" (yes).