I won't claim special sourcing or knowledge about the president's deliberations on Afghanistan. But I do have a hunch that the leak today that our ambassador to Afghanistan, Karl Eikenberry, a retired Lt. General and commander in Afghanistan, is wary in the extreme of a big buildup there wasn't an accident. You could see it a few ways. One is that opponents of a buildup, fearing that Obama is leaning toward a bigger influx of troops per the advice of Gen. Stanley McChrystal, leaked this as an effort to strengthen their hands. My Washington-trained gut says it's the opposite, a trial balloon because Obama will go with a smaller buildup, and putting Eikenberry's concerns out there serves as a counterweight to McChrystal. It, in effect say, "Look I have smart generals who don't want a buildup."
Either way, the whole process is kind of amazing. Whether you think Obama is dithering, as Dick Cheney charged, or proceeding with appropriate caution--I tend to think the latter more than the former--it's kind of wild to have this play out over such an extended period. Cheney, who created more disasters than one can count, can't lecture anyone, but it's also hard to see what new information is coming in over the transom to make this decision take so long. In any event, we'll know soon enough, but I'm thinking the president goes with a lesser footprint now and holds out the possibility of more later if need be.
How very, very convenient.
After reading Jim Jones interview last week in Der Spiegel I suspect many were waiting to see how Obama was going to come up with a fast exit strategy. Now we see how this may just playout. Pres. Obama does not want to still be fighting 2 wars come next election time. We can fully expect Obama to seize on any plan that moves us out of Afpak.
My sense is that the President knows it's an unwinnable situation for our military, perhaps in the short term (short-term still being 5-7 years), but definitely in the long term since there's no way to guarantee all won't be undone when we leave (which is currently the case in Iraq). So right now he's formulating the best way to remove our footprint as responsibly as possible, a la Iraq's "as careful getting out as we were careless getting in."
Barack Obama is not a hawk. He is not John McCain, who is amongst those who think we could have won Vietnam "only if." If Obama is not absolutely sure that staying in Afghanistan is worth the price in blood and treasure, then he will begin the process of leaving.
Unfortunately, even this will take years.