The Equation In New Jersey: Why It's Close

« New Jersey Exit Poll Results | Main | In Michigan Bellwether, Nofs Pads His Lead »

Nov 3 2009, 9:06 pm by Marc Ambinder

A Sitting Governor's Approval Rating at less than 40%
PLUS
A perennially disgruntled populace
PLUS
One of the highest taxed states in the country
PLUS
A reconfigured off-off-year electorate
PLUS
Disaffected Democrats
PLUS
A crusading, anti-corruption, independent Republican who, it turns out, made some questionable decisions of his own
PLUS
Attention paid to the challenge's obesity
PLUS
A last minute draping of the presidential coattails
=
.....

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://politics.theatlantic.com/mt-42/mt-tb.cgi/17226

Comments (2)

thewhiterose November 3, 2009 10:44 PM

Not close at all. The change imperative is strong in both VA and NJ. Obama the brand is not relevant. Obama and his cohorts will take comfort in that.

They should react exactly the opposite.

When the big re-election campaign occurs in 3 years, he will find the brand will not fare too well when compared to the policies of big govt spending, healthcare 'bill', ambivalence over whether we are at war on terror, and other poor policy choices. By then the brand will be seriously strained and the 'yes we can' message will be over-run by the 'we missed the chance' message.

Sagae November 4, 2009 11:18 AM

I live in New Jersey. Its close because a lot of us are anti-Republican and the commentary (especially about that NY-23 race and Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck, etc.) is pushing us to get out and vote against the Republicans. Other than that, the Republican would win by a landslide. Taxes are very high here; when I tell people in other states what I pay for property taxes (on top of high income taxes), they are always shocked. And those other states aren't horrible places to live.

What was Corzine thinking running on expanding pre-school? What would that cost us? They cannot control the costs of anything the government does here. The insurance issue - that Christie would drop mandates for certain procedures - was troubling to me because I want to put the money where it really does good.