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Nov 20 2009, 3:11 pm

What Giuliani 2012 Would Look Like

The New York Daily News suggested Thursday that, according to one source, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani might use a run for Senate--if he wins--as a launching pad for taking another stab at the White House in 2012.

Giuliani's 2008 presidential campaign went down in flames, more or less, but he remains a nationally recognized figure with a respectable support base. So, in light of this speculation, why not engage in some more, and ask what a Giuliani presidential campaign in 2012 would look like?

If Giuliani entered a Republican primary field, it would, unavoidably, introduce a very significant element into the campaign: he would be the only Republican presidential candidate not running hard to the right.

As conservatives have mobilized this year against President Obama's economic agenda--and against Obama himself--there is a tremendous amount of fiscal-conservative energy within the right's ranks, with a strong movement to purge centrists from the GOP. And 2012 contenders know it: the conservative grassroots provide a source of energy that candidates want (and will want) to tap.

Nor do they want that conservative energy to turn against them: they've seen how conservatives have mobilized, nationally, to attack Gov. Charlie Crist (R) in Florida, and no one wants to become the Charlie Crist of the national political scene. Tea Partiers and Freedom Works activists will look to mobilize across the country in 2010 races, and that could prove a test run for conservative grassroots influence in 2012.

Hence, most candidates fear and respect the thus-untamed Tea Party hydra.

Giuliani, on the other hand, has already faced attacks from the right. He stood onstage with Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Fred Thompson at a GOP primary debate and explained that he's pro-choice. It's a hump he's already gotten over: conservatives know where Giuliani stands, and many of them know they don't like him. But the critical moment, for him, has passed.

In that regard, he would provide Republicans with what could be their only centrist alternative in 2012.

There's one notable exception, however: Newt Gingrich, who has pressed for pragmatic, centrist candidates to be embraced by the GOP.

Giuliani was a solid contender in 2008--at first. Before the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary drew closer, Giuliani carried roughly the same national weight as his two chief rivals of the early primary: John McCain and Mitt Romney.

What did him in, plain and simple, was his Florida strategy. Not running in Iowa or New Hampshire--while setting up shop in Florida, and putting all his eggs in that basket--essentially cost him his shot at the White House.

"My instincts originally were, if you lose, you gotta go down fighting. You can't allow yourself to lose a primary. I think I should've fought Iowa harder. That was the beginning of becoming irrelevant," Giuliani told New York Magazine in October of this year.

Running a second time around, that strategy would likely go out the window. While Giuliani said he should have run harder in Iowa, New Hampshire might prove a better fit, given that he's more recognizable in the Northeast.

But Giuliani knows how to run a national campaign. He's pro-business, and his talking points include slashing the New York City budget and incentivizing businesses to hire more workers through tax cuts.

It probably won't be Giuliani's season. Most of the energy on the right involves conservatism--and ideological conservatism at that. Giuliani's main selling point is his competence as a manager. That's not at a premium right now among conservatives--but you never know whether or not it will be in 2012, especially if the rest of President Obama's first term goes badly.

But with most of the candidates vying for the conservative mantel in 2012--vying harder than they did in 2008, when the maverick John McCain presented an opportunity for the GOP to gather moderate independent votes in the general election--Giuliani would be the odd man out.

It's impossible to say how likely that is, but it would, at least, be interesting to see.

Comments (12)

How can you possibly write this with a straight face:

"But Giuliani knows how to run a national campaign."

What we learned is that he can't win anywhere. Not in the Midwest (IA). Not in the Norhteast (NH). Not in the South (SC). Not in the hybrids (FL). Rudy is your ultimate loser. What he knows how to do is run a national campaign....extremely poorly.

This may be literally the worst political analysis I have ever read.

1. "What did him in, plain and simple, was his Florida strategy." False.

There is this persistent myth that Giuliani lost the race because of his Florida strategy. This ignores the actual history. He did not go into the race planning to put all his eggs into the Florida basket. He went to Iowa. He went to New Hampshire (the latter more than 100 times). The more time he spent in those places, the lower his poll numbers dropped.

It was clear he was going to do poorly there, so he dropped those states and somehow convinced people that it was his plan all along. And what happened in Florida? Exactly the same thing. The more time he spent with voters, the less they wanted to vote for him. (Shockingly, towing a certifiably insane Jon Voight along with him didn't help.)

2. "he would be the only Republican presidential candidate not running hard to the right." False.

Believe it or not, there are more issues on the left/right political spectrum than abortion. Although Giuliani didn't completely flip-flop on abortion like Romney, on virtually every other issue he ran as far right as he could go. He pandered shamelessly to the right wing.

3. "But Giuliani knows how to run a national campaign." Huh?

He has run exactly one national campaign. He went from being considered the favorite by quite a margin to losing miserably. Both as a candidate and a strategist, he was a failure by any measure. How could you possibly say he knows how to run a national campaign?

Ajax the Greater

Rudy Giuliani went into the Republican primary ahead by double digits in all polls and emerged with a grand total of ZERO DELEGATES.

He spent over $40,000,000 and won zero delegates, finishing a distant third in Florida and with over $3,600,000 in campaign debt.

He used to pass for being a moderate, but all of his actions in the past year have screamed teabagger (he refused to attend the wedding of the gay couple whose house he lived in for years after his second wife kicked him out of the house; he went on record (as a former USA Attorney!) that he doesn't trust the federal judicial system, he repeatedly professes to love Palin and Beck, etc.)

In fact, where exactly does he differ from Pawlenty or Jindal or Palin for that matter (please give specific links and sites from the past 12 months).

Additionally, in his run for senate in New York in 2000 he dropped out when he realized that he was going to get clobbered by Hillary Clinton, choosing to drop out early rather than have a potentially career ending loss.

Oh, and in case you forgot, Bernie Kerik.

This article shows the analytical acumen of a middle school book report and needs to either be substantially revised or deleted in its entirety. It is embarrassment to an otherwise excellent organization (as a subscriber to the Atlantic it is articles like this that make me question if I am going to renew).

Michael Bluth (Replying to: Ajax the Greater)

Hillary Clinton Kirsten Gillibrand is not.

But I didn't account for your third paragraph. I preface what I wrote below with the disclaimer that it only applies should Rudy campaign to the left of every other signifcant candidate. If he tries to court the Beck/Limbaugh crowd he has no shot.

There are actually several factors I can see working in Giuliani's favor for 2012:
1. He's not the favorite. This means when he doesn't win New Hampshire, it won't be a huge setback. This is good because Giuliani isn't nearly as good a fit for libertarian NH Republicans as you might think-this state feels more mid-western than northeastern, he seems a little too manufactured for the voters who seemed to strogly prefer McCain's "maverick" persona when I was there in 2008.
2. No McCain. In 2012, not only would Giuliani likely recieve the same 9% he got in 2008, but he'd likely split McCain's 37% with Romney (assuming Romney runs again), and pick up a few points of the more liberal votes that went for Ron Paul. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Giuliani get high teens or low twenties here, which might be good enough for second behind Romney. He should easily get 20-25% in Florida, which ought to be good for second there.
3. The other candidates. Romney will get killed by the Club for Growthers, and chances are everyone else will be running fairly hard to the right, as Good said, so Giuliani should pull in the most liberal 10% of Republicans in pretty much every state. Combined with lower expectations, this would keep him in the race longer, allowing him to get to the few primaries he can actually win: the Northeast less New Hampshire, plus California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington.
4. He'd be a Senator. The assumption is that Giuliani only runs for the nomination again if he wins a senate seat in 2010. This is important because Giuliani has only ever been a mayor before. No matter what city, no matter how succesful he was, there are people who are not voting for a mayor for President.
5. He's got practice. Every GOP nominee since 1976 has run for President before gaining the nomination save for Bush 43. Its tough to say why exactly, but paying your dues is important to GOP voters. Romney, Newt, and Huckabee all have too, but circumstances set up so that Giuliani seems the most electable of this group. Newt hasn't been an important national figure in 10 years, Romney will see his name used in the same sentence as "socialism" roughly 3-6 times per day on talk radio and conservative blogs, plus he's already got issues with the southern protestant base. Huckabee is a social conservative in an election where it'll be more important to be an economic conservative.

Do I think Giuliani will get the nomination? No. Do I think he'll even run? Probably not. But you can see where, should he win the senate seat and get the right kind of challengers, he would have a better shot in 2012 than 2008.

Re: your third point-- I don't see where a pro-choice and perceived "gay-friendly" Republican can win, outside of Romney's turf in New England. The party base in California, Oregon and Washington is very conservative now. Moderate GOP'ers used to do well on the West Coast, but that was 15-20 years ago.

I can see Guiliani putting up strong numbers in NY, NJ, CT, and maybe parts of New England and the Mid-Atlantic. But that's it. Plus, the way the GOP allocates delegates overweights states that are solidly Republican. Thus, Georgia (for instance) will have about the same number of delegates as Pennsylvania.

Two words: Rim Pawlenty.
Laugh all you want now. I won't say I told you so later.

znagle (Replying to: tcrosse)

Thanks for the truly classic typo. I don't think I've ever seen one in such perfect context.

On a more serious note: you might be right. As a Minnesotan who has seen Pawlenty at work for several years, he certainly should be a contender. I'm not so sure though. I have a hard time believing the GOP will rally behind someone so calm and collected given their current fervor.

Great. Now my typo will be used as a sexual euphemism.

Yael Davidowitz-Neu

Rudy Giuliani may not win the Republican primaries - and he is, admittedly, a bit older, which would make it difficult to challenge Obama, or another young Democrat - however, his take on the key issues is spot on.

Republicans need a candidate with a results oriented resume who is smart about business, fiscally conservative, tough on terrorism. Constant discussion of social issues like gay rights or abortion alienates younger voters and moderates alike. If Republicans wish to win in 2012, they must focus on a candidate that can help them win moderates, independents and centrists - the Republican base can then be energized on the basis of getting the GOP back in power.

The current system of primaries that favor candidates to the far right make will increasingly damaging to Republicans in winning future elections as each generation of voters grows increasingly supportive of the pro-choice and gay rights movements.

Rudy is one of those figures who, the more you see of him, the less you like him. His numbers will never be higher than they are before he starts campaigning. Biden totally nailed him "noun, verb, 9/11" - it hangs around his neck like "I can see Russia from my house".

Chris,
This is absurd.