It's the day after the day after. And the punditocracy is still analyzing the off year elections. I thought E.J. Dionne had the most sober take--bad news for incumbents, Democrats, an annoyed electorate. If anything I think he may have underestimated the level of irritability out there. The defeat of Thomas Suozzi, the executive in Nassau County, should have been a real wake up call to Democrats. His election marked a big gain for the party in the land of D'Amato. Now it's gone. E.J.'s smartest take, I think, is the failure of the Obama base to be fired up and ready to go. A year's time has dampened some hope. That doesn't mean it can't and won't come back. The world will look different in a few months if we have 5 percent growth and something like universal health care.
But a few things have happened that are worth noting. One is that the high expectations of Obama's election were bound to run into the realities of Washington--the sluggish Senate, the culture of lobbying, the practicalities of problems as diverse as Guantanamo Bay to bailing out GM. That was inevitable, of course, and Obama supporters knew in their hearts it wouldn't be easy.
Something else happened, too. Somewhere along the way the inspirational language of the campaign got lost. There's a lot less hope in Obama's speeches than there once was. Some speeches still soar. That health care address did pretty well at putting him on the right footing. But his rhetoric and tone seems less moving and galvinizing than it once did. Am I wrong in feeling like something's missing? Let me know.
Audacity breeds hope. And the Administration seems timid. Lead.
Obama's mistake, if any, was underestimating his own abilities. With health care in particular he looked to the Clinton experience to determine that his best bet was to let Congress take the lead and not meddle in their business as they made the sausage. But Clinton was the wrong historical lesson for him -- Obama's election was much more like Reagan's, with a clear majority rejecting the politics, and party, of the past. Obama could have used his popularity and rhetorical skills to push Congress to do his bidding, much like Reagan did when he got into office, and Reagan had the added hurdle of dealing with a Democratic Congress! Clinton never really had a chance to pull this off because he was elected with "only" 43% of the popular vote, and never had the kind of approval ratings that Obama (or Reagan) enjoyed upon entering office. Too many ex-Clintonites (like Emmanuel) were spooked by their experience with Clinton and went in the other direction.
Obama now often views his constituency as the 535 members of Congress, which is why the hope-filled rhetorical flourishes are at a minimum. But as you note with regard to the health care speech, when he goes over Congress' heads directly to the American people and moves the needle on his own popularity (reminding people why they liked him so much in the first place), it helps move the legislation he wants along better than any small ball lobbying he does on Capitol Hill.
Obama's mistake, if any, was underestimating his own abilities. With health care in particular he looked to the Clinton experience to determine that his best bet was to let Congress take the lead and not meddle in their business as they made the sausage. But Clinton was the wrong historical lesson for him -- Obama's election was much more like Reagan's, with a clear majority rejecting the politics, and party, of the past. Obama could have used his popularity and rhetorical skills to push Congress to do his bidding, much like Reagan did when he got into office, and Reagan had the added hurdle of dealing with a Democratic Congress! Clinton never really had a chance to pull this off because he was elected with "only" 43% of the popular vote, and never had the kind of approval ratings that Obama (or Reagan) enjoyed upon entering office. Too many ex-Clintonites (like Emmanuel) were spooked by their experience with Clinton and went in the other direction.
Obama now often views his constituency as the 535 members of Congress, which is why the hope-filled rhetorical flourishes are at a minimum. But as you note with regard to the health care speech, when he goes over Congress' heads directly to the American people and moves the needle on his own popularity (reminding people why they liked him so much in the first place), it helps move the legislation he wants along better than any small ball lobbying he does on Capitol Hill.
Can we take a deep breath for a moment. Why can we not look beyond this immediate second? This is normal for midterms, we all know.
I think some people are just burnt out. Last years campaign took two years... TWO YEARS. Most people need to live their lives and deal with this economy more than mid-term elections.
When you have a side of Congress that only doesnt want to work with you, but is actively trying to derail ANYTHING you do, it is tough. Things are not easy in DC and it takes time, but at this point in Bush's term he was the next Lincoln with his popularity.
Obama thinks LONG TERM. He always has. Read Sullivan. If you think the White House didnt start planning for 2012 immediatley, your wrong, but we will not remember the 5th of November in the memoirs of Obama.
And Obama is farther along in passing health care than ANYONE in 50 years. This is round 8 and everyone is bloody, but its at least a 10 round fight.
PS The press wants what it doesnt have. This summer Obama talks too much. Gives too many interviews. Now you worry his speeches arent Hope-y enough. Please.
Suozzi is actually ahead by 237 votes pending absentee ballots and the inenvitable recount. You are correct that the defeat of Suozzi would be a big blow to Democrats in Nassau County, but I lost interest in the rest of your argument when you get a fact like that incorrect.
........Basically I'm sure the white house wasn't awfully interested in this years election.....sure they'd like to have held onto to NJ and VA and I'm sure were somewhat surprised at their good luck in picking up NY 23.......it will be very different next year........firstly healthcare will have passed (you heard it here).......second the economy will be snapping back smartly.....unemployment will be edging down.......and the white house and dems will be mounting a full court press to retain their majorities and perhaps add to them in the senate......to aid them they have miles of sound bites of Republicans denouncing the recovery program plus of course the incipient civil war will still be going on and the drummers like Limbaugh will be giving us their opinions......obviously the Democrats are going to have to re-energize that base but I wouldn't underestimate the white house political arm if I were you.
Pushing the public option and an expensive health reform plan is, not only going to result in a reform plan that doesn't reform anything, it's going to cost Obama climate change legislation.
This is a terrible, terrible mistake. There are so many good ideas out there and better health reform options that aren't even being discussed! I can't believe that the Democrats are going to try to ram this down our throats and further deepen the divide between them - and everyone else.
I have no hope.
Pushing the public option and an expensive health reform plan is, not only going to result in a reform plan that doesn't reform anything, it's going to cost Obama climate change legislation.
This is a terrible, terrible mistake. There are so many good ideas out there and better health reform options that aren't even being discussed! I can't believe that the Democrats are going to try to ram this down our throats and further deepen the divide between them - and everyone else.
I have no hope.