Politics with Marc Ambinder

Marc Ambinder

Marc is an associate editor at the Atlantic, where he curates its influential political channel and contributes to the magazine. He is also a contributing editor to National Journal. In late 2007, he was named chief political consultant to CBS News. Marc spent a year and a half at the Hotline, where he was the founding editor of "Hotline On Call," a pathbreaking political news blog. He was a producer and reporter for the ABC News Political and was one of the founders of ABC's "The Note.” He's a 2001 graduate of Harvard and lives in Washington, D.C.

Recently by Marc Ambinder

Nov 6 2009, 3:03PM

Longtime Obama Friend Leaving White House

by Marc Ambinder

The White House announced today that Cassandra Q. Butts, a long-time friend of the president's who serves as his chief deputy in the White House Counsel's Office, will be leaving her post to become senior adviser to the Millennium Challenge Corporation.

The agency was chartered by Congress in 2004 to partner with third-world countries and promote sustainable growth and good government.

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Nov 6 2009, 2:31PM

The Deficit Choice: What The White House Is Thinking

by Marc Ambinder

Huge deficits will be omnipresent throughout President Obama's first term, complicating his administration's messaging efforts on the economy. But advisers separate the political repercussions from the actual underlying fiscal and monetary policies.  In some ways, the short-term politics of the deficit are negligible. They're preferable to the short-term politics of a much higher unemployment rate with no economic growth -- and a smaller deficit.

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Nov 6 2009, 11:21AM

Paterson's Defiant Ad Buy In New York

by Marc Ambinder

New York Governor David Paterson (D), emboldened by the results of Tuesday's elections, begins his first flight of television ads today in the state. The ads, entitled "Some Say," refer to attempts by the White House to persuade Paterson, whose approval ratings are low, to not run for his first elected term. According to a Republican media ad buyer, the Paterson campaign is spending about $625,785 for a week's worth of ads in five markets, including Rochester, Buffalo and New York City. The New York Times has more info here.
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Nov 6 2009, 10:23AM

The White House Political Learning Curve

by Marc Ambinder

Is Barack Obama's cool style of governing fundamentally incompatible with the furnace of modern politics? Bipartisan conclaves, bringing industry to the table(s), relative transparency, accommodation and consensus meetings are all ornaments of the Obama brand. But political parties, built around existing alignments of interests, tend to get excited about fighting. Base-tending is crucial to political husbandry. Obama has a gourmand's disdain for populism and picking fights.

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Nov 5 2009, 5:26PM

The Cornyn Caveat: What The NRSC Will Do -- And Won't Do -- In Primaries

by Marc Ambinder

One day after National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman John Cornyn promised that his group wouldn't play spend money in the Republican primaries, a Republican Senate candidate in Arkansas has gotten some attention for an upcoming fundraiser of his at the National Republican Senatorial Committee headquarters in Washington. Candidate Gilbert Baker has six Republican primary opponents, including the head of the Arkansas Tea Party movement. 

The AP says that Cornyn is listed as a host of the 11/19 fundraiser, along with three other GOP heavyweights, including the top Senate Republican, Mitch McConnell.

An NRSC spokesperson told the AP that the fundraiser does not imply that Cornyn is endorsing Mr.Baker. Other candidates, the spokesperson said, could also have their fundraisers at the NRSC.

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Nov 5 2009, 5:11PM

Interview: The Club For Growth Ascendent

by Marc Ambinder

Here's a Q and A with ex-Rep. Chris Chocola, president of the Club for Growth, whose endorsement of Doug Hoffman in New York's 23rd congressional district precipitated Hoffman's quick rise to national prominence. Though the Club lost this race, they scored a coup the next day when Sen. John Cornyn, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said that he would not spend money on behalf of candidates who faced primaries, even those candidates he personally recruited.

What's your 30,000 feet take on Tuesday night?

For conservatives, really, they did not lose anything on Tuesday night because even in Hoffman's loss, if the Club for Growth had done nothing, Hoffman wouldn't have been able to mount a viable campaign. You would had the same type of policymaker in Scozzafava or Owens. Certainly we would have rather had Hoffman win. A victory in itself [when] a guy like John Cornyn [says it's]  his lesson that the competitive primaries are a good thing. It's not good that party bosses tell the voters who they ought to like. So that's a victory in and of itself.

What's the Club for Growth's brand like out there? I ask that because it seems like a lot of folks in the district didn't like how Hoffman became a talisman for a movement that originated outside the district.

Everyone would say that the [Scozzafava] probably wasn't in hindsight the most attractive candidate for the Republicans. If the county chairman had picked a principled conservative from the beginning, they would have probably won rather easily. So, there was a lot of money coming from all sides, and we don't take solace in this, but she ended up being everything that we said she was. I don't buy the argument that this was a struggle within the conservatives. There was no moderate in the race. There may be examples of that in the future, like in Florida.

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Nov 5 2009, 3:12PM

Respinning Virginia: Forget The Obama Surge Voters

by Marc Ambinder

Heaven help me, but I'm going to take issue with a political satirist. And not just any political satirist, mind you, but Jon Stewart himself. On his Monday show, Stewart lampooned the tendency of journo-punditocrats to opine that the interpretation of the election matters as much as the election itself. The humor was based on the premise that both sides will have their spin, pundits will dutifully select whatever spin fits the moment, and then, even though they know they're not telling the truth, will focus the collective mind in such a way as to perpetuate a distorted meaning of the election.

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Nov 4 2009, 4:15PM

The Great Political Sort Continues

by Marc Ambinder

New York's  House delegation is now 27-2 Democratic, or 93%.  (If you add in the senators it goes up to 94%.)  For comparison, Texas's House delegation is 63% Republican, Florida's is 60% Republican, and California's (counting Garamendi) is 64% Democratic.
 
In recent memory, has such a large state been so totally dominated by a single party? The largest I can think of are Massachusetts today (100% Dem) and Oklahoma in the late '90s (100% GOP).

While we're at it: Why has the GOP collapsed in rural upstate New York but not in rural central Pennsylvania?  I know there are cultural differences between the two (Yankee vs. Scots-Irish) but it's a striking divide nonetheless.
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Nov 4 2009, 3:40PM

NY 23, Palin 0, Erick Erickson 1

by Marc Ambinder

The CW take, courtesy of SNL's Seth Meyers, is that Sarah Palin's brand problems contributed to the defeat of the candidate she backed in the very special election in New York's 23rd Congressional District. But Republican candidates know who butters their bread. There are signs today that, far from taking Hoffman's defeat as evidence that voters are anxious about attempts to run a hard right candidacy, the GOP mod squad is interpreting Hoffman's surge as a warning.

ITEM: The National Republican Senatorial Committee says it won't spend money in Republican primaries even though it recruited several candidates who now face them. The idea isn't to cede control over candidate recruitment so much as it is to back away from the impression that they're in the business of anointing candidates.

ITEM: Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) endorses conservative California Senate candidate Chuck DeVore on the day that the NRSC-recruited candidate, Carly Fiorna, enters the race. (The NRSC says it's not endorsing.)

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Nov 4 2009, 3:17PM

Sarah From Alaska: The Truth And 2012

by Marc Ambinder

An interview with Shushannah Walshe and Scott Conroy, the authors of some behind-the-scenes reportage about Sarah Palin's vice presidential candidacy, "Sarah from Alaska."

You try hard to be fair in the book, but you chronicle, fairly persuasively, a large number of what seem to be fairly egregious distortions by the candidate. Why does she do this? Why doesn't she, as you wrote, acknowledge uncomfortable truths?

Palin almost always seems outwardly poised and confident in front of a microphone, but she also demonstrates time and again--often in more subtle ways--signs of profound insecurity. It takes a self-confident person to admit mistakes and acknowledge one's own shortcomings, but Sarah Palin is quick to cast aside people who cross her in even minor ways, and her unwillingness to tolerate much dissent often leads to an infallibility syndrome.

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Nov 4 2009, 10:05AM

Semiotics Of Marco Rubio's New Website

by Marc Ambinder

Marco Rubio's new $$ site:  semioticians, have a go:  http://www.charlieandobama.com/   

kiss.png
Looks like two guys about kiss, don't it?  Kinda a sensitive issue in Florida, where Gov. Crist was dogged by gay rumors... and where he embraced Barack Obama's stimulus package.  This is an interesting way to link Crist to Obama....maybe especially in light of the way New York's 23rd CD will be interpreted...not as a rejection of bipartisanship but as an acceptance of it.  Anyway, lots going on here.

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Nov 4 2009, 8:06AM

11 Ways To Think About Tuesday Night

by Marc Ambinder

1. The White House has trouble melding its approach to governing, and standards of transparency and brand of being above politics, with a strong-arming White House political operation willing and capable of leading the Democratic party to victory.

2. Barack Obama's political coalition is not invincible and it is not perpetual. The Obama election didn't changed the fundamental political dynamics of off-year elections.

3. The White House's time horizons are longer than and different than the time horizons of House, Senate and gubernatorial candidates. It was more important for, say, Creigh Deeds, to get a health care bill passed by August than it was for President Obama. Obama's building a strong re-election coalition in 2012, but it's going to be frustrating for Democrats in the short term. Obama's approval rating in New Jersey was 57%.

4. The traditional, nonthreatening Republican economic message -- lower taxes, less spending, more disciplined government -- resonates better with independents than the Democratic message -- we need to spend our way out of the recession.

5. Deep recessions are deadly for governors, who must balance their budgets by cutting spending deeply or raising taxes.

6. It's very hard for Democrats to simultaneously turn out the Obama Coalition (younger, more liberal, more minority voters) and suburban independents (particularly older, particularly men).

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Nov 3 2009, 9:06PM

The Equation In New Jersey: Why It's Close

by Marc Ambinder

A Sitting Governor's Approval Rating at less than 40%
PLUS
A perennially disgruntled populace
PLUS
One of the highest taxed states in the country
PLUS
A reconfigured off-off-year electorate
PLUS
Disaffected Democrats
PLUS
A crusading, anti-corruption, independent Republican who, it turns out, made some questionable decisions of his own
PLUS
Attention paid to the challenge's obesity
PLUS
A last minute draping of the presidential coattails
=
.....
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Nov 3 2009, 8:03PM

New Jersey Exit Poll Results

by Marc Ambinder

Courtesy of CBS News: If Jon Corzine wins re-election, he can thank women, who gave him a narrow advantage and who voted at higher proportions than men did. Note the split among moderates and independents; independents, self-described, clearly were more conservative than moderates, which says something about the electorate, rather than, I think, the environment. nj1.png
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Nov 3 2009, 7:32PM

The Virginia Exit Polls

by Marc Ambinder

virginia1.JPGAs everyone's noting, the percentage of young voters dropped off substantially from 2008. What should be noted: young voter turnout is never high in off-off year elections. That's not where Creigh Deeds's problems originated from. Look at his standing among independents. True, independents tend to lean toward the out-party in these elections, but Deeds had a foothold with them before the summer.  Then the summer happened. The summer: GM bailed out. Unemployment spikes. Talk in Washington of a trillion dollar health care bill. Suddenly, independent men, in particular, began to orient themselves toward the basic Republican message: lower taxes, less government intervention, less spending.   Waiting to see the geographic cross-tabs, but I'm betting that, where there's a comparison to be made, you'll find that Deeds did much worse among suburban (Richmond and DC) independents, particularly men, particularly those over 45.

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Nov 3 2009, 6:00PM

Exits: Economy, Not Obama, Top Issues

by Marc Ambinder

The first round of exit polls come to us courtesy of my friends at CBS News. Please be sure to visit their website first!   First things first: even in a year when the composition of the electorate is dramatically different than the 2008 presidential election, President Obama's approval rating in Virginia is 51% among voters surveyed.  In New Jersey, it's 57%.  Fewer than half of voters for Bob McDonnell, the Republican gubernatorial candidate in VA, say they voted to send a message to Obama. About 38% of voters for Chris Christie, the New Jersey GOPer, tried to send a message, too. 38% of  CreighDeeds voters said their vote for the Democrat was to support Obama.

The big issues: the economy, to 46% of voters in Virginia. In New Jersey, it was the economy -- 31% , followed by property taxes (25%).  25% of voters in Virginia said health care was their top issue compared to 18% who said the same in New Jersey.
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Nov 3 2009, 5:50PM

The DNC Pre-Spins...

by Marc Ambinder

From a Democratic National Committee e-mail, about the relevance of tonight's results:

NRCC Talking Point: "The 2001 Off-Year Elections Have No Bearing On Next Year's Mid-Term Elections. These Races Revolved Around Local Issues And Local Candidates. There Were No Discernable National Trends." NRCC Talking Points: "The 2001 off-year elections have no bearing on next year's mid-term elections. These races revolved around local issues and local candidates. There were no discernable national trends." [Hotline, 11/7/01]



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Nov 3 2009, 2:21PM

The Election Line: 2:00 pm ET Update

by Marc Ambinder

An anecdotal canvassing from sources and reports across the nation.

Yes, btw, there ARE exit polls. No, I don't have access to them yet.

Democrats in Virginia say that GOP base precinct turnout is lower than what they'd expect for a race that's not supposed to be close. GOPers need to run 10-11 points ahead in base precincts in the aggregate, as of this AM they were about even. Some anecdotes about lower-than-expected GOP turnout in Richmond too. Note, though, that there's always a drop-off from about 10am to 4:30 pm, and that turnout is still in the range of a solid GOP victory across the tickets.

Turnout in Maine is high. In Bangor, it's over 50%, and that bodes poorly for ME 1, which would overturn the state's new same-sex marriage law.  High turnout seems to favor gay marriage; low turnout seems oppose it.

The folks at Public Policy Polling: "Many people who approve of Obama not voting for Owens, Corzine- that's the candidates' fault, not his."

Republicans are excited about what they're seeing in Virginia and not very excited about seeing about New Jersey.

The weather is great in the 23rd district in New York
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Nov 3 2009, 1:56PM

Think Again: Breaking Through The Election Spin

by Marc Ambinder

"The 2009 races don't mean much for 2010."

Wrong. They set perceptions among candidates, strategists, and the media. They'll determine whether Democrats believe they'll be punished or rewarded for favoring an Obama-identified health care plan. They'll set the tone of (particularly) GOP primaries in House districts in early 2010. They'll contribute to the environment that 2010 candidates find themselves in. We won't know everything, but we'll get a sense of the depth of anti-establishment sentiment, the ability of conservatives to turnout voters in critical races, the skittishness of Democrats, and the way the parties in power respond to the developments. The 2009 races won't tell us whether Republicans will take back the House and Senate in 2010 -- still unlikely, in my opinion -- but they'll help Republicans and Democrats figure out how to run.

"The 2009 races are not a referendum on Obama."

That's what everyone's saying. And it's false. Each election hinges on something different, but where there's a common thread to most of the races, it's out-party, conservative enthusiasm, which is inversely correlated to how well Obama is perceived to be leading the country.

"The 2009 races are mostly a referendum on Obama."

Not true. Virginia rejected a Republican attorney general a few months after September 11, 2001; no one suggested that George W. Bush was to blame. Jon Corzine is much less popular in New Jersey than Obama. He's been the guy on watch as New Jersey's economy tanked. These races are mostly a referendum on the ability of conservatives to turn out their base voters in off-year elections at a time when Democrats are nervous and the economy is in tatters. Nothing concentrates the mind of the opposition like economic discontent, and that force usually benefits the party out of power.

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Nov 3 2009, 11:56AM

The Most Popular 2009 Election Video Is Phat

by Marc Ambinder

Or, "Fat," as in calling attention to the obesity of one's opponent. That's right -- according to the folks at Google, the ad named "if" by Jon Corzine's gubernatorial campaign was downloaded 100,000 more times than its nearest competitor.  Who's responsible for calling attention to the ad? The media, which picked up on charges, later confirmed, that Corzine's jibe at Chris Christie -- the Republican "threw his weight around" -- was deliberately designed to make fun of Christie's girth and draw out associated stereotypes.
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Nov 2 2009, 1:30PM

So Many Assumptions, So Little Time

by Marc Ambinder

The Democrats assume that independents won't find the GOP an attractive vehicle for their disaffection, while Republicans assume that independents will unite against the Democratic Party's agenda in Congress: health care reform, cap-and-trade, the stimulus package, liberal social policy legislation.  That means that Republicans will spend 2010 attacking the Democratic Congress, while Democrats will spend 2010 attacking the Republican brand -- reminding independents why they disassociated with the party in the first place.  

A political assumption among Democrats is that health care reform will be popular in the short run -- and when the implementation phase begins, it may be unpopular again -- but it will, in the long-term, be a bragging point for the party.

A political assumption among Republicans is that Democrats will get no credit for health care reform.

A patronizing assumption among Democrats is that Republican Party leaders will fail to find attractive, moderate candidates and run them in appropriate districts in 2010.

A patronizing assumption among Republicans is that Nancy Pelosi isn't smart enough to figure out how to give centrist Democrats leeway to buck the party in 2010.

A corollary assumption for Democrats is that Republicans cannot build a national movement.

A corollary assumption for Republicans is that Democrats consistently underestimate the long-term brand failure of liberalism.  

An unspoken assumption among Democrats is that the economy has put people into a funk. The quicker the economy improves, the more attenuated the incipient populism will be. (You'll never hear Democrats say this, shades of Jimmy Carter's "malaise" speech, a word, of course, he never actually uttered.)

An unspoken assumption among Republicans is that cultural politics, dampened by the failure of the Bush presidency and the collapse of the economy last year, are back and tilting the electorate decidedly. Broadly defined, this includes fears about multiculturalism, political correctness, gay rights, and immigration.  
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Nov 2 2009, 12:26PM

Why Are Democrats Afraid Of The Debt?

by Marc Ambinder

A colloquy on debt politics follows. Earlier today, I wrote this:

Faced with the prospect of a obliquely angeled "V" shaped recession, the president's policy planners have been trying to figure out how to create jobs in an economy that is newly conditioned to be lean. Trouble is, of course, that the range of policy options favored by Democrats -- more spending, more government transfers -- are at odds with the second fundamental reality of the economy: the deficit and mounting debt. 

A good question: What in the hell do I mean?  The only reason why deficits and debt are realities is because political pundits like me say they're realities. The real realty -- what's actually producing the anxiety that's being yoked to the debt and deficit -- is the inability or unwillingness of the government to spend what it needs to spend in order to resuscitate demand.  Truth is that compared to the other economic problems we face, debt isn't much of a problem. But -- and this was the point I was trying to make -- it's become a problem because political elites have willed it to be a problem (and Americans seem to agree.)

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Nov 2 2009, 12:07PM

CW Gets It Right: Governor's Races Will Be Supremo In 2010

by Marc Ambinder

The conventional wisdom about 2010 can be summarized as follows; Republicans will pick up some seats in the House, maybe a few in the Senate, and Democrats will retain control. More and more, though, that CW is turning to the governor's races as the most consequential. I think the CW is right. Nearly 80 percent of Americans will choose their state leaders on the eve of the first and only congressional redistricting of the Obama era. Democrats have the chance to consolidate gains at the state legislature level, and Republicans have the chance to prevent the Democrats from exploiting the national/natural demographic drift toward the Democrats. Including New Jersey and Virginia, Democrats will be trying to hold onto 22 seats; Republicans will try to keep 16 seats.

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Nov 2 2009, 10:52AM

An Ironic Echo For the RNC

by Marc Ambinder

In a new radio ad, the Republican National Committee tells voters in New York's 23rd Congressional District that their choice Tuesday will "echo" from Albany to Washington. It's an effective message, but it's also ironic, coming from the same party vessel that endorsed the candidate who dropped out -- and from the party that spent $1 million on said dropped-out candidate. Apparently, the message has already echoed in Michael Steele's office...  Note: the National Republican Congressional Committee spent the $1 million and not the RNC headquarters organization itself.
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Nov 2 2009, 10:17AM

Rubio Prepares To Be King....

by Marc Ambinder

It's good to be Marco Rubio these days. The South Florida conservative has been all-but-anointed the heir to the grassroots energy that's collected around Doug Hoffman's candidacy in New York's 23rd Congressional District. Today, Rubio's campaign plans to launch what it considers the "most powerful online fundraising site" in Florida history. That's saying something, because Florida's a typically beneficent state for Republican donors. The campaign wouldn't provide details, but it did explicitly link the creation of the site with Hoffman's expected victory. It's also helpful, most assuredly, that newspapers have taken to publicizing opponent Gov. Charlie Crist's precipitous drop in the polls. Mr. Rubio knows where his bread is buttered.
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Nov 2 2009, 10:13AM

The White House: Let Conservatives Win... (For Now)

by Marc Ambinder

The White House is playing it cool. Faced with the prospect of losing governor's mansions in Virginia and New Jersey, a would-be pick-up seat in New York, maybe a few liberal policy referendums and the mayoralty of Atlanta,  Obama administration political and policy planners will put on their Snuggies Tuesday night and watch FlashFoward.  It's the future they're concerned about, not the present.

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Oct 31 2009, 11:09PM

Even More Lessons From New York 23

by Marc Ambinder

Analogizing races in politics is like eating pizza slices. Someone has too many; others are left hungry for at least one more slice.

The analog of NY-23 that comes to mind is the Florida GOP Senate primary, and this shows the promise and the limits of analogies. Like NY-23, conservatives have been protesting the GOP establishment's decision to rally around not-so-conservative but ostensibly popular Gov. Charlie Crist at the expense of challenger Marco Rubio. Rubio, like Hoffman, has been winning grassroots straw polls. Rubio, like Hoffman, has run as a populist conservative. Crist has some inherent vulnerabilities that, thanks to Rubio and to an aggressive Florida press corps, are beginning to be exploited. Similarities end, though: Rubio is a professional politician. He's crisper on the hustings. He knows the issues of the state. He's a plausible governor, having been mentored by Jeb Bush, Crist's predecessor. There are no third-party dynamics here, just a bunch of conservative activists who don't want Charlie Crist to be their senator. Late word from Florida tonight: Crist's popularity has dropped. The tag of "Empty Chair Charlie" -- referring to what pollster Tom Eldon calls his "uneventful" three years in office as well as, flirtatiously, to Crist's reputed intellectual fogginess.

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Oct 31 2009, 11:39AM

Dede Drops Out!

by Marc Ambinder

Just four days before the election, Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava abandoned her campaign for the congressional seat in New York's 23rd Congressional district. Why? "It was time to do the right thing, which is to release the Republican County chairs, they've stood by me this entire time, and let them do what's best for the Republican Party," she told a local TV station. A series of polls showed Scozzafava in third place, well behind Democrat Bill Owens and, suddenly, Conservative Doug Hoffman, who had stolen about half of Scozzafava's base.  Where do the rest of her votes go? CW says that most go to Hoffman, but I'm with Jonathan Martin: I think half go to Democrat Bill Owens or they stay home. GOP registration exceeds Democratic registration by nearly 50,000. This is a Republican district that is likely to remain Republican, -- only significantly more conservative than it's been.

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Oct 30 2009, 8:12PM

State Secrets Invoked -- With A Rare, Almost Apologetic Explanation From The AG

by Marc Ambinder

Generally, the Attorney General doesn't comment on routine procedural matters in ongoing cases. But Shubert et. al v. Obama is not routine, and the procedure in question -- the State Secrets Doctrine -- is politically sensitive for the administration. Late today, the Department asserted the privilege to prevent the National Security Agency from having to disclose information about its domestic collection activities after the disclosure of the Terrorist Surveillance Program, or TSP, in 2005. The plaintiffs allege they were caught up in a "dragnet" of NSA surveillance that included unwarranted massive collection of domestic phone calls, e-mails and other data.

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Oct 30 2009, 1:31PM

What the NY-23 Special Election Is Really About

by Marc Ambinder

In the span of a few short weeks, the special election in New York's 23rd congressional District has become the one result that the savviest church members are polishing off our sharpest metaphors for.

But what would a victory by the Democrat, Bill Owens, or the Conservative, Doug Hoffmann, actually mean? And is it possible that the political community will over-interpret the consequences? Most certainly. We're all lit-crits now; on Wednesday morning, the real lesson will be decided by whose explanation triumphs in a contested arena: Republicans versus Conservatives, Governing Conservatives versus Theoretical Conservatives, Palin-Beck Crazies versus Sane Modernists.

Before you get there, though, go here:

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Oct 30 2009, 10:44AM

$50 Billion For Intelligence

by Marc Ambinder

The Director of National Intelligence, Dennis Blair, informed the press today that the National Intelligence Program, the primary account used to fund intelligence activities (and Hamid Karzai's brother's activities?) was $49.5 billion for FY 2009.  Blair's required by law to disclose the number, which tells us... very little, actually, about spending across the intelligence community, except for the fact that we're spending a lot of money on intelligence. In 2008, the NIP budget hovered around $47.5 billion. In 1997, the figure for the comparable program was about $27 billion.

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Oct 30 2009, 10:39AM

Metaphor Of The Week: Harry Reid's First Down

by Marc Ambinder

When Sen. Joe Lieberman told reporters that he wouldn't hesitate to join a Republican filibuster against closing debate on the health care bill, it was widely interpreted as a slap in the face of Democrats, Lieberman's Senate colleagues and the majority leader, Harry Reid. It was so obviously that, right? NBC's Ken Strickland has a different point of view. Lieberman, in fact, gave Harry Reid a victory. He said he wouldn't vote against bringing the bill to the floor -- which is really all that Reid expected of him. What Lieberman intends to do four weeks from now when the political atmospherics are almost certainly different -- that's anyone's guess. Here's Strickland's metaphor:

Point is, Reid needs first downs before he can get to the end zone or even the red zone. And right now, he doesn't even have the votes for that first down. So let's not get too far ahead of ourselves and try to predict what will happen in the red zone -- if Democrats carry the ball that far.
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Oct 30 2009, 6:44AM

Lieberman Wants Senate-Confirmed Cyber Coordinator

by Marc Ambinder

Good timing for Sen. Joe Lieberman: the night before he's slated to lay out his vision for a comprehensive remake of the nation's cybersecurity laws, his colleagues on the House Ethics Committee were dealing with the fallout of a major cybersecurity breach.

In a speech this morning at the Chamber of Commerce, Lieberman, the chairman of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, will outline legislation that includes the step of making president's cyber coordinator a Senate confirmed position. The White House, which has not named its cyber coordinator, wants the position to be accountable only to the National Security Adviser.

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Oct 29 2009, 3:36PM

Blast From The Past Newt: Reagan Revolution's Civil Rights Failure

by Marc Ambinder

In a way, Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House, predicted the Current Crisis in the Republican Party as early as 1989. In an interview that year with the Ripon Society, a still-on-his-vertical-trajectory Gingrich projected that the conservative movement would split between those who favored a "governing conservatism" and those conservatives who want to keep conservatism theoretical. Gingrich in 1989 sounds a lot like Gingrich in 2009, with some differences -- he supported a "living wage" back then. The interview, which you can find here, began with Ripon's moderator noting that Gingrich's ascension to the post of Minority Whip was built on the work of moderate Republicans.

Responded Gingrich: "There's no question that I would not be House Republican whip if activists in the moderate wing had not supported me. I carried New England by seven to three: I was nominated by Bill Frenzel; Olympia Snowe seconded my nomination; and others like Steve Gunderson and Claudine Schneider played major roles. So I regard my election as a coalition victory for activists of all the ideological views of the Republican Party."

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Oct 29 2009, 3:08PM

Virginia Governor's Race: More Lessons Learned

by Marc Ambinder

Yesterday, I offered my first impressions about why Republican Bob McDonnell is so handily beating Democrat Creigh Deeds in Virginia. Here are some additional lessons that Republicans and Democrats are learning.

1. Culture Warriorism Don't Work.  At least not in this environment. Deeds's internal polling showed that the number one issue, by far, for voters across state but in Northern Virginia in particular, was the economy, jobs and infrastructure improvement. This is no different than in previous elections, but the salience of these issues were all the more acute. Virginia remains the best place to do business (says CNBC) and its unemployment rate is the lowest in the nation. No surprise that Bob McDonnell focused his ads, like a laser beam, on these issues without referring to the incumbent.

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Oct 29 2009, 3:02PM

The Nuclear Stockpile Flashpoint

by Marc Ambinder

Last week, in writing about President Obama's decision to take a more hands-on approach to his Nuclear Posture Review, I implied that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton used a public speech to throw a dart at the Defense Department and Secretary Robert Gates by attempting to redefine what it means for the U.S. to be confident in the nuclear stockpile it has.

I quoted Clinton as saying that "General [Kevin P.] Chilton, Commander of U.S. Stratcom, has said repeatedly that he doesn't need new nuclear weapons capabilities -- but he must be confident in the capabilities that we have."

A senior defense official called to dispute the view that Clinton's comment amounted to a challenge to the Pentagon.

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Oct 28 2009, 3:18PM

What Did Congress Know About Wali Karzai?

by Marc Ambinder

What did Congress know about Wali Karzai? The C.I.A. isn't obligated to report the identity of every agent or recipient of its laundered funds, but given the importance of W. Karzai to the operation and given how much money he seems to have gotten, good lawyers at the agency probably would have suggested that the notification be made, at least to the "Gang of 8."   Reporters aren't having any luck getting members of the intelligence committees to comment.

And why aren't Republicans jumping on the news, framed by some in this way: that the Obama administration propped up one of the biggest (alleged) opium dealers in Afghanistan -- opium that is funding Taliban forces committed to the death of American soldiers?

I suspect it's because Republicans like the idea of the CIA being aggressive. Or they don't know all the facts...and don't want to inadvertently confirm a story that isn't true.

Incidentally: how hard is it going to be for the CIA to promise anonymity to lower-level Afghan Taliban leaders and potential sources now?
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Oct 28 2009, 3:16PM

Blowing Wali Karzai's Cover: A Wall Of Silence

by Marc Ambinder

A wall of silence met inquiries about the New York Times' revelation that the Ahmed Wali Shah Karzai, the brother of the President of Afghanistan and a suspected opium lord, has been on the CIA payroll since 2001.

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Oct 28 2009, 1:34PM

Public Option Options: The Unknown Unknowns

by Marc Ambinder

Here's a thumbnail guide to the public option options out there. For a great graphical representation, check out Nate Silver's work. For a tight look at the Senate's options, read Ezra Klein's. 

To figure out what the public option will do, you first need to know

(1) Who pays for it -- the government or individuals through premiums?
(2) Who gets to participate? Everyone? Small businesses? 
(3) How much providers are paid, and who gets to set the rates?
(4) Do states get to opt-in, or opt-out? How large does a public option have to be in order to have any effect? What's the existing market like?
(5) Does it kick in immediately? Is there a trigger?

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Oct 28 2009, 12:11PM

Pre-Mortem: How Did Deeds Get Into So Much Trouble?

by Marc Ambinder

I could just as easily have titled this post "Why Bob McDonnell is winning." Let's start with the candidate. As Virginia uber-blogger Not Larry Sabato points out, to be a governor is to be a manager. Voters intuitively understand this, and so they look to the candidate who seems to be the best manager. Creigh Deeds (D) doesn't come off as a confident, crisp, efficient manager; Bob McDonnell does. The dynamics of an open seat, with a much narrower pool of voters, a re-energized Republican Party -- these conditions were expected, and they were satisfied. Deeds's climb would be uphill. Also: Virginians fell in love with Mark Warner. They fell in like with Tim Kaine. They seem underwhelmed by Creigh Deeds.

Here are six other reasons why Deeds is losing among, for goodness sakes, even women.

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Oct 28 2009, 10:57AM

On 11/21 in Iowa, Biden v. Palin, One Round...

by Marc Ambinder

News that the Iowa Family Policy Center is trying to recruit former AR Gov. Sarah Palin to attend its major annual fundraiser sets up the media-drooling possibility of a Fight Night in Des Moines.  The IFPC has rented the Wells Fargo Center downtown. Across the street,  at Hy-Vee Hall, Vice President Joe Biden will attend the Iowa Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson dinner. 
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Oct 28 2009, 9:42AM

Palin's Honest But Unqualified, Americans Say

by Marc Ambinder

There's been some perturbation in Sarah Palin's orbit since the end of the presidential campaign. The new NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll finds a statistically significant drop in her favorability numbers since July; only 26% of Americans have a positive response to her versus 42% who regard her with suspicion. CNN's version of the same question lumps together the "mostlies" and pushes respondents to make an assessment. Palin's favorability rating rises to 42%; her unfavorability rating rises to 52%.

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Oct 27 2009, 10:18PM

Gore Vidal On Obama: "Experience Mattered"

by Marc Ambinder

In an interview with author John Meroney, provocateur Gore Vidal has some choice words about politics. In the primaries, he supported Hillary Clinton. Here's what he says about Barack Obama:

"... And I've always been very pro-African-American - or whatever phrase we now use. I was curious to see what would happen when their time came. I was delighted when Obama appeared on the scene. But now it seems as though our original objection to him - that experience mattered - was well-founded."

And here's Vidal on Ted Kennedy's legacy:

It's nothing. But I predicted that at the beginning, when Jack started backing him for his U.S. Senate seat. Historian Arthur Schlesinger, Jr., who was a loyal Kennedy courtier, agreed. But Jack was funny about it. He never took Arthur seriously. He always called him "the movie critic." (Imitating JFK's accent) "What does 'the movie critic' have to say about this issue?" He liked to tease Arthur.

Read the rest, here.
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Oct 27 2009, 6:36PM

Reality Check: Biden At 42% In Context

by Marc Ambinder

Joe Biden's less popular than Al Gore? Than Dick Cheney? Say it ain't so. OK, it ain't so. A new Gallup poll out this week suggests that Biden's favorability rating has reached its lowest level since the Democratic National Convention. It's now 42%, a full 13 points lower than President Obama's current rating and ten points below where Biden rated at the inauguration. Gallup measured the ratings of Al Gore and Dick Cheney over the course of 1993 and 2001, respectively, and found that Cheney averaged a 65% approval rating and Gore, a 55% approval rating.

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Oct 27 2009, 1:59PM

In Supporting Filibuster, Lieberman Plays For Power

by Marc Ambinder

How many Democrats instantly flashed back to President Obama's expansive attitude toward Sen. Joseph Lieberman after the 2008 elections, where Lieberman threatened to leave the party after Harry Reid tried to strip him of his Homeland Security Committee chairmanship? Publicly, the White House said that reconciliation was the order of the day. Privately, they sent word that Lieberman would be a reliable vote on the big issues of the day, like, um, health care. As Lieberman pal Chris Dodd put it at the time, Lieberman "is willing to be a member of your family," so why not let him in?

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Oct 27 2009, 1:34PM

Snowe Explains Her Health Care Journey

by Marc Ambinder

Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) wouldn't exactly say whether she'll ultimately oppose a health care bill that includes an opt-out public option today. Speaking to reporters on Capitol Hill, Snowe promised to "continue to work on issues as this bill comes to the floor." She said that she spoke to President Obama on Friday, and with Obama "basically indicating to me that it was likely you know that the public option would be considered as part of the integrated plan between the HELP and the Finance Committee but wanted to continue to work with me in the future." (BTW: This was before Democratic aides on the Hill leaked word to reporters that the White House was still trying to pressure senators to keep Snowe's "trigger" option viable.)

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Oct 27 2009, 1:17PM

Prespinning November 3: A Good Night For....

by Marc Ambinder

Let's assume that Republicans win the Virginia governor's race, Democrats win New Jersey's gubernatorial race, Democrat Bill Owens wins the special election in New York's 23rd Congressional district, voters approve gay marriage in Maine and turn back domestic partnership benefits in Washington State.

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Oct 27 2009, 12:23PM

GOPWars: Newt Gingrich, RINO in Chief?

by Marc Ambinder

He was once a revolutionary himself, challenging the party structure, blasting away orthodoxies and storming to power. But former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich finds himself in the role of the old guy in the basement. Last night, appearing on Fox News's "Greta!" Van Susteren, Gingrich found himself urging conservatives not to forsake the adequate at the expense of a party that can win national elections.

This sounds like the debate that out-parties always have. Activists stress ideological purity and party apparatchiks stress coalition-building. Activists question the fidelity of the national party committees to principles (e.g., to quote Christ, "What good will it be for a man if he gains the whole world, yet forfeits his soul? Or what can a man give in exchange for his soul?" (Matt. 16:26 NIV)); the national party committees question the activists' relationship to reality.

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Oct 27 2009, 11:58AM

No Good Deeds Go Unpunished

by Marc Ambinder

Even more evidence that something went very very wrong with the Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Virginia:

The Washington Post notes that Bob McDonnell "has overtaken Deeds as the one more trusted to handle issues of special concern to women (7 points)."

Maybe Deeds should run a few more "thesis" ads...
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Oct 26 2009, 6:09PM

VA GOV Race's About Deeds And Democrats, Not Obama

by Marc Ambinder

There's more evidence tonight that the Virginia governor's race shouldn't be interpreted as a referendum on President Obama. That doesn't mean that Democrats are out of the woods. As expected, Republican Bob McDonnell has a comfortable, eleven point lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds in the latest Washington Post poll.  President Obama's approval rating is 54%, which suggests that a lot of folks who went to the polls for him in 2008 won't be bothered to vote for Deeds and / or that a number of Obama voters have decided to cast their ballot for McDonnell. The former explanation finds empirical support.

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Oct 26 2009, 4:00PM

Reid's Roll Of The Dice

by Marc Ambinder

With Sen. Harry Reid's decision to ask the Congressional Budget Office to score a public option that states can choose to use, he's betting against the prospect of any Democratic senator filibustering the end product of health care reforms. Reid decided not to submit a public option with a trigger mechanism -- the approach favored by Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), calculating instead that he would be able to enforce party solidarity on what will certainly be an epochal vote.  In order to induce at least one of those Democrats, Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND), Reid said that the final Senate bill would include non-profit co-op experiments, but he did not provide details. Liberals will interpret Reid's decision as evidence that their pressure worked. Indeed, Reid seemed to acknowledge that the power of moderates was not nearly as acute as it had been -- or that he thought it had been. He noted that, almost any way the data is sliced, Americans support a "public option" and understand what it would do.

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Oct 26 2009, 3:24PM

Obesity Policy Watch: Menu Labeling Results Are In

by Marc Ambinder

As of March of 2008, fast food establishments in New York City have been required to post fat and calorie counts on menu boards, with the idea being that consumers would at the very least pause and think for a moment before purchasing the same donut every morning. The law was vigorously resisted by food and restaurant companies; obesity researchers didn't know whether the law would lead to a decrease in calorie consumption or to a paradoxical effect known as "portion distortion," where diners and snackers increase the total amount of food they eat to compensate or reward themselves for choosing lower-calorie items. This isn't a parochial NYC issue anymore: both House and Senate health care drafts require most restuarant menus to mandatory calorie counts.  The first round of data is now in, and it is, not surprisingly, equivocal. 

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Oct 26 2009, 2:56PM

Ballot Initiatives To Watch On 11/3

by Marc Ambinder

Citizen sovereignty will be alive and well next Tuesday, as voters decide more than two dozen ballot initiatives across six states. Here's a look at the five most interesting -- and potentially most consequential -- initiatives and referenda.

Maine -- Question 1 -- A People's Veto of Gay Marriage -- This is a big one. Last year, Maine's legislature passed a law permitting same-sex marriage. "Let the states decide" doesn't really work as a defense against gay marriage when states start legalizing it, of course, and so the new rallying cry is: "let the people decide."  Mainers have the chance to veto the legislature's decision; if they fail to veto it, they ratify it, becoming the first state in the nation to affirm gay marriage by direct democracy. Major interest groups on both sides have spent millions. Opponents of same-sex marriage are determined to establish a a lagoon around marriage. They're also running ads linking gay people to sex, sex education, and anti-religious orthodoxy. In general, voters tend to be less willing to repeal laws already on the books than they do to create new rights, so No on 1 -- the "no" side would preserve the law -- have a psychological edge. They've also got an edge in recent polling. Note: a referendum in Washington State would allow a people's veto of a bill that expanded domestic partner benefits.

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Oct 25 2009, 2:16PM

The Sunday Shows In Five Bullet Points Or Less

by Marc Ambinder

1. As Florida goes, so goes...Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) played the cooling saucer a bit this morning, expressing pessimism about a robust public option but did not rule out voting for one in the final analysis. Would Nelson support a filibuster cut-off knowing that the underlying bill would include a public option?  Said he: "I think, reckless to say I'll support the procedure without knowing what the underlying bill consists of. And it's not put together yet. It's a draft -- it will be a draft bill some time next week, submitted the Congressional Budget Office for the review of the cost."  

2. Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai thanked Sen. John Kerry for helping him make the decision to accept a run-off election, said that he would not be open to a unity government (and Dr. Abdullah Abdullah said he wouldn't join one) but would welcome advice from his challengers, and did not agree that more American troops would necessarily be viewed as occupiers.

That is a legitimate concern, and that has to be taken very much into consideration, and that's why I emphasized two very important things. The arrival of forces must enhance the sense of protection of the Afghan people, and must give protection to the Afghan people. It must not be a capture and kill pursuit of the Taliban, it must be one that provides protection to the country, and must also lead to the enhancement of the abilities of the Afghan military and security forces. Therefore they have to come as liberators as they did in 2002 and not otherwise
3. Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) predicted that President Obama would have "trouble with the American people" if he sends 40,000 more troops to Afghanistan. Sen. Chuck Schumer said that "leader Reid is ... leaning towards ... putting a state opt-out public option in the bill."

4. Sen. Mitch McConnell  (R-KY) lauded the Obama administration's preparation for the H1N1 emergency and said that one reason why more people are going to the hospital is that public awareness has been sufficiently raised.

5. Prediction: Al Hunt believes that Sen. Olympia Snowe's vote will be critical to final passage and that she'll provide cover for moderate Democrats and even some Senate Republicans. And Newt Gingrich says he'll decide about 2012...in February of 2011.
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Oct 23 2009, 6:08PM

White House Denies Report That It Wants To Weaken Public Plan

by Marc Ambinder

The White House is denying reports that officials are pressuring Sen. Harry Reid to scale back the scope of the "public option" that'll be attached to the Senate health insurance bill.  Talking Points Memo reported, based on unnamed sources close to the negotiations, that the White House is "skeptical" of a public option that includes a state opt-out choice, preferring -- and advocating for -- a public option that would kick in only if the private exchange failed to lower costs.

"The report is false. The White House continues to work with the Senate on the merging of the two  bills," said Dan Pfeiffer, a top White House aide whose portfolio includes health care. "We are making good progress toward enacting comprehensive health reform."

TPM notes that Sen, Jay Rockefeller sent out a seemingly unprompted press release rejecting the "trigger" option.  It claims that the White House's pressure on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is based on President Obama's desire to accommodate the wishes of Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), who supports a trigger-only public plan and who voted "yes" on the Senate Finance Committee's health care draft.
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Oct 23 2009, 5:00PM

On Nukes, Obama Plans Hands-On Approach

by Marc Ambinder

President Obama plans to take a more active role in preparing America's nuclear weapons strategy, helping to ensure that the final document, due out next year, reflects his priorities, rather than just the institutional views of his government, administration officials said.

Mr. Obama was said to be unhappy when the Defense Department presented to him its decision to remove a long-range missile battery from Poland and a sophisticated radar system from the Czech Republic. Obama had little time to study the issue before the vagaries of the Pentagon's budget procedures forced his hand. Responding to concerns that the Nuclear Posture Review  (NPR) was being completed without enough input from his staff and from the State Department, Obama has decided to provide guidance directly, and plans to participate in several high-level meetings.

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Oct 23 2009, 3:12PM

The World Series Might Arrest Daggett's Surge

by Marc Ambinder

Independent gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett is up to 19% and 20% in polls taken by SurveyUSA and Rutgers/Eagleton. If they're right, Mark Blumenthal tells us, the parrallels to former Minnesota Gov./independent Jesse Ventura's trial heat is intriguing.   But Blumenthal cautions that there are at least six reasons why Daggett's climb may be more steep than Ventura's was.

One is this:

• Baseball. If the New Jersey news hole in those markets were not already small enough, the prospect of a Philadelphia-New York World Series during the last six days of the race diminishes it even further (the Phillies have clinched, the Yankees are one game away).
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Oct 23 2009, 1:28PM

Third Party Watch: GOP's Approval Rating Lowest In Decade

by Marc Ambinder

Eager to please, ready to fight, but why do they go to extremes? According to a new poll by CNN, voters' feelings for the Republican Party have chilled to their lowest levels in a decade, with 36% expressing a favorable view and 54% expressing an unfavorable view. In contrast, Democrats enjoy a fairly healthy approval rating -- 53% -- though their Congress, in general, gets much lower marks. 38% say Democrats are doing a good job in Congress. 33% say Republicans are doing a good job in Congress. What this suggests: Americans think of Democrats and think of Barack Obama and others, not just Harry Reid. Americans think of Republicans and think of...Congressional Republicans.
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Oct 23 2009, 1:20PM

J-Street's Ben-Ami Wants To Anger The Left, Too

by Marc Ambinder

The chief of J-Street, the liberal Middle East peace advocacy group, has drawn plenty of ire from conservatives. Maybe too much...On the eve of its convention, the head of J-Street, Jeremy Ben-Ami, tells Jeffrey Goldberg in a fiesty interview that J-Street isn't necessarily going to please liberals all of the time either.

One -- he favors the Right of Return, always and forever. He believes that American military aid to Israel should never stop.

"I hope that we have a very strong left flank that attacks us, that Jewish Voice for Peace and other groups that are consistently upset with us for backing Howard Berman's sanctions plan and for refusing to embrace the Goldstone report and for standing up for the right of Israel to defend itself or for its military aid -- I hope we get attacked from the left because I would characterize J Street as the mainstream of the American Jewish community."

BTW: Despite a New York Times assertion to the contrary, the Jews on his staff aren't intermarried (not that that's a bad thing!).

And boy, Ben-Ami doesn't seem to like Michael Goldfarb.
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Oct 23 2009, 12:56PM

Rethinking Pawlenty's Iowa Caucus Strategy

by Marc Ambinder

Last week, I suggested that choosing to campaign in Iowa might not be the most feasible strategy for a Republican presidential candidate like Tim Pawlenty, who, while plenty conservative, would have to compete with two candidates -- Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee, assuming they run -- who are bound to generate much more enthusiasm among Iowa Republican caucus goers. I'm going to elaborate a little.

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Oct 22 2009, 3:46PM

Parsing The Responses To New Executive Pay Rules

by Marc Ambinder

Citigroup says:

"We have received the decision from the Special Master for the 2009 compensation plan for our senior executive officers and certain of our most highly compensated employees. We are pleased this decision has been issued and we will now work to comply with the plan's requirements."
Yes sir. Right away sir. How high do you want us to jump?

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Oct 22 2009, 3:31PM

Another Celeb Quietly Takes An Administraton Position

by Marc Ambinder

Hunky Korean-American actor/lawyer/consultant Yul Kwon is now the deputy chief of the consumer and governmental affairs bureau of the Federal Communications Commission. His appointment has little to do with his 2006 Survivor win -- it's that the guy actually has extensive experience dealing with tech legislation and policy, having served as an aide to Sen. Joe Lieberman and worked on tech policy while a consultant at McKinsey. Kwon also has his J.D. from Yale Law School. He was a regular volunteer in Obama's campaign, much like Kal Penn, the actor, who is now a deputy public engager in Valerie Jarrett's White House shop.

YUL.jpg
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Oct 22 2009, 3:25PM

What's The Matter With Texas?

by Marc Ambinder

Ron Brownstein's latest National Journal opus is illustrated here. Below, the Republican and Democratic districts with the highest number of uninsured Americans. It jumps out at you: a lot of these districts are in Texas, and a lot are represented by Democrats who oppose the public option and who might vote against health insurance reform.

"....the McCain Democrats are as likely as the Obama Democrats
to represent districts where the proportion of people without
insurance exceeds the national average. The share of the
uninsured is greater than the national average in 21 of the 49
McCain-Democrat districts, or just under 43 percent. The proportion
is about the same in the Obama-carried Democratic districts--
90 of 208, just over 43 percent.

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Oct 22 2009, 3:08PM

What's The White House War Against Fox News All About, Really?

by Marc Ambinder

What's The White House War against Fox News all about, really?  And could it backfire?

I've tried to ignore the questions because I'm pretty sure that no one outside the Beltway and outside Fox's audience could care one Don Whitman about it.

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Oct 22 2009, 2:53PM

Net Neutrality: A Political Primer

by Marc Ambinder

Net Neutrality -- defined as the principle that users should control what they can access on the net -- or, from the supply side of things, that Internet service providers shouldn't be able to block content from some users or create a tiered service model. Today, the Federal Communications Commission started the long rule-making process by a unanimous vote.

It's a hot issue in tech -- one that could define the future of the net -- but it's also become a terribly important political issue. Here's why.

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Oct 21 2009, 2:44PM

Palin PublishPalooza In November

by Marc Ambinder

If you can't get enough of Sarah Palin or you can't get enough mocking of Sarah Palin, boy, are you going to love November.

No less than four major books on Palin will be released, including, of course, Palin's own tome, Going Rogue, where she promises a take-no-prisoners approach to the 2008 campaign and the story of her life. Palin plans to appear on Oprah on November 16, the day before her book is published.

Here's a brief guide to the rest of the books:

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Oct 21 2009, 12:41PM

Doug Hoffmann: The Next (Unlikely) Conservative Superstar

by Marc Ambinder

Here is Doug Hoffman's claim to fame: at the tender age of 27, he became corporate comptroller of the Lake Placid Winter Olympic Games. That, and the 1955 Chevrolet he rebuilt when he was 16. Hoffman is an accountant, which makes him an unlikely public figure. He is even less likely as a political candidate, much less one who can win a nationally-watched special election in New York State. Less likely still is his new identity: conservative superstar of the future. And yet, here he is: a slow-talking, kindly-uncle-like, nerdy-looking optically challenged Republican Party savior. And he isn't even running as a Republican.

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Oct 21 2009, 9:36AM

Igniting The Debate Over Obama's Secret War

by Marc Ambinder

Barack Obama's use of Predator drones in Pakistan represents, according to Hina Shamsi, a human-rights lawyer at the New York University School of Law, "targeted international killings by the state." In the New Yorker, Jane Mayer takes the first in-depth look at a major part of Obama's counter-terrorism strategy: the classified but widely reported-on CIA/Air Force program that targets Al Qaeda and Taliban leaders for death. As Mayer notes, since the beginning of the Obama administration, Predator strikes have dramatically increased, as has the conviction among many analysts that the rate of civilian casualties is backstopping radicalism and engendering hatred against the United States. Among Mayer's revelations: the CIA's counter-terrorism center (CTC) has the authority to decide whether its target is legitimate -- and then authority, without consulting the White House, to launch the Predator's Hellfire missiles.

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Oct 21 2009, 7:34AM

Hero Of The Press Cycle: Sen. John Kerry

by Marc Ambinder

Has Sen. John Kerry ever had as good a press cycle? 

He's Politico's "Man Of The Hour".

David Ignatius, the well-regarded spokes-columnist for the hard-bitten CIA case officer set**, called it Kerry's "Star Turn," noting how his outsider credentials and insider trust helped him with over Karzai and smooth tensions between Karzai and Richard Holbrooke, the Af-Pak emissary.

Indeed, most of the stories devoted to Kerry have the exact same analysis: Kerry was reluctantly thrust into the role of negotiator. Kerry developed Karzai's trust. Kerry had the diplomatic skills that current ambassador Karl Eikenberry lacked. Kerry's importuning proved to be the turning point.  Oh, and it compares favorably to Kerry's brokering of a dialog between the U.S. and Syria earlier in the year.

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Oct 20 2009, 2:58PM

Why Some 2012 Candidates Might Skip Iowa

by Marc Ambinder

Unless you're beloved by conservative Christians, don't bother campaigning in Iowa. That's one lesson learned by some strategists allied with several potential 2012 presidential candidates. Others see it differently. The question applies most to Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) and Ex-Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA).

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Oct 20 2009, 1:54PM

NRA's New Ad: McDonnell Protects You From "Them"

by Marc Ambinder

The National Rife Association's political action committee takes aim at gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds in new ad that's running across the state of Virginia.  The spot isn't just about guns. And it doesn't actually mention Deeds -- who opposes gun control -- by name.    

A deep-voiced narrator intones that "they" are creating "mountains of debt" and heavy spending and "unprecedented government intervention" that chips away at "Your Rights" and "Your Freedom," including "Our Second Amendment."  Who's "them?" Not defined. 

But, the viewer is told, "you can stop them right now."  How? By voting for Bob McDonnell on November 2.

Kind of sneaky -- although sneaky in a fairly obvious way -- to cast Bob McDonnell as the defense against unknown malevolent forces who are trying to take away your guns...even though the reality is that neither Democrats in Virginia nor Democrats in Washington have any appetite for gun control legislation.


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Oct 20 2009, 11:26AM

Balance Of Power Clash At The Supreme Court

by Marc Ambinder

The Supreme Court will decide whether the president can keep detainees in custody even after it acknowledges that they do not pose a threat to the United States. The case, Kiyemba v. Obama, asks whether courts ought to defer to the executive branch and Congress on all matter of detainee disposition. 17 Chinese Uighers were ordered released by a federal judge. 11 remain in custody. Earlier this year, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit said that courts didn't have the authority to force the U.S. to free the Uighers inside the United States. The court held, in essence, that once the Uigher's habaes corpus petitions were sustained, they became refugees -- aliens of some sort -- and U.S. courts have never had the authority to order the executive branch -- immigration officials -- to admit them legally into the United States.

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Oct 20 2009, 9:04AM

For His Decision On Troops, Obama Has Leeway, The White House Says

by Marc Ambinder

President Obama won't decide whether to send more troops to Afghanistan until the country's political disputes settle down, senior administration officials said. On the advice of several key members of his war council, including National Security Advisor Gen. James Jones and Vice President Joe Biden, Obama plans to wait until Afghanistan holds a run-off presidential election on November 7, these officials said. (Officials, later in the day, said that no  hard decision had been made about when to make the decision;  the president "will announce the decision when he's ready," an aide said.) Speaking to reporters late yesterday, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said that the new administration strategy couldn't wait on a new Afghan government because the political situation might not be resolved for months, according to the Associated Press.

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Oct 19 2009, 6:40PM

What Did The Moon Scientist Want To Tell The Israelis? Some Clues

by Marc Ambinder

There's nothing like a good, diverting spy scandal.  The FBI today arrested an eminent space scientist, Stewart David Nozette, and charged him with espionage. He allegedly agreed to sell information about American nuclear weapons to an operative of Israel's Mossad -- only the agent turned out to be an uncover FBI agent. Nozette was the principal investigator on the NASA team that discovered water on the moon. But he spent years as a top scientist at the Department of Energy, where he specialized in satellite technology. According to CBS News, his work for an Israeli defense/aerospace consulting company owned by the Israeli government -- work that involved providing unspecified but presumably sensitive technical assistance -- brought him to the attention of investigators. The affidavit alleges that Nozette secreted two computer drives out of the company and brought them to a third country.  What he did with them -- and what was contained on those disks the FBI isn't saying.   From the FBI release, it's hard to figure out what he might have given the Israelis when he worked for them.  Left somewhat vague is what he tried to sell to the undercover agent. But his resume provides a clue.

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Oct 19 2009, 2:51PM

Mitt Romney On Obama's "Impotent" Outreach To The World

by Marc Ambinder

Read clips, of course, about Mitt Romney's stiff-backed challenge to President Obama on Iran. The former Massachusetts governor and 2004 presidential candidate wants "withering" sanctions to be levied on Iran. But his speech, delivered today to an AIPAC forum in San Diego, is worth reading in its entirety. It's a distillation of how conservatives see Obama's approach to foreign policy. Since Romney may well run against Obama in 2012, it's a useful guide to his thinking. RomneyAIPAC.doc

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Oct 19 2009, 2:43PM

As Public Opposition Grows, Does Obama Have Leeway On Afghanistan?

by Marc Ambinder

"...[O]ne thing to watch for will be how the president himself addresses the importance of public opinion in explaining his eventual decision on how to proceed -- and how he explains himself should he decide to defy the public's wishes. It will give us an important glimpse into what this young and largely untested leader is made of and how he views his presidency."

That's from the Plumline's Greg Sargent, who notes CNN polling showing nearly 60% of the public opposes sending more troops to Afghanistan and that a small majority believes that the war is turning into Vietnam.

What is the picture inside of our heads about the war in Afghanistan? The American people seem to want their president to take public opinion into account. But does a president need to? Does it matter, firstly, whether a war can be just unless a majority supports it? Does public backing make it easier to prosecute a war? Does public opposition to a war increase the chances of defeat? How does public opinion track the progress of a war or conflict?

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Oct 19 2009, 1:30PM

Who Punked The Chamber On Climate Change?

by Marc Ambinder

More details are emerging about the group that punked several journalists, including producers at CNBC and a writer at Reuters, with a fake press release alleging a turnabout by the Chamber of Commerce on global warming legislation.

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Oct 19 2009, 1:25PM

Government Can Supress Torture Evidence...If It Wants

by Marc Ambinder

President Obama's May decision to declassify Bush-era legal memos does not require the government to give up more information on techniques revealed by those opinions, a judge ruled last week. The finding complicates efforts by civil liberties groups to obtain information about torture through Freedom of Information Act requests, and it could mean that some detainees who bring civil suits alleging they were tortured by the hands of U.S. interrogators may have a tougher time proving as much in court.

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Oct 19 2009, 11:51AM

Who Should Have Been On GQ's Top 50 In DC

by Marc Ambinder

Since an Atlantic editor, Bob Cohn, was included in Gentleman's Quarterly's list of the 50 Most Powerful People in Washington, D.C., it would be churlish of this column to criticize the lad mag for getting it all wrong. Nonetheless, for those who work in the greater Metropolitan area, a few really powerful folks were nowhere to be found. Leaving aside movers and shakers who are almost totally unknown -- this guy is one of them -- here are some substitutes that GQ might want to draft for its next team.

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Oct 19 2009, 11:26AM

Fake "Chamber" Press Release Dupes Reuters

by Marc Ambinder

The headline, if true, would be a news story indeed: the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, according to a press release e-mailed to journalists this morning, had decided to reverse its opposition to strong climate change legislation. But that's false. Some unknown group decided to punk the Chamber. And in the process, at least one news organization, Reuters, fell for it.

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Oct 18 2009, 2:00PM

The Sunday Shows In Five Paragraphs Or Less

by Marc Ambinder

1. White House officials had a double-barreled message: for the NATO strategy to work -- for an infusion of U.S. troops to have the possibility of success -- the government of Afghanistan must be seen as legitimate in the eyes of the Afghan people. Either a run-off election or a coalition government would do -- though it's President Karzai's choice. White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel said on CBS's "Face The Nation" that the U.S. government shouldn't be seen as influencing the election.

"...what would be worse is if the Afghan people thought that the course that was chosen was done by the determination of the United States. And then it would lose the legitimacy and the credibility to the Afghan people."

2. But Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), speaking for conservatives, said that while a stable government in Afghanistan was critical, it shouldn't be the linchpin of the U.S. strategy. "I hope President Karzai understands that our national security interests don't depend entirely on his decision there whether to allow a recount. Obviously the legitimacy of that government is an important component of it. My point is it shouldn't be the lynch pin for us deciding whether we're going to protect our national security interests in that region."

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Oct 17 2009, 2:01PM

Rethink 1: Obama Doesn't Get Katrina?

by Marc Ambinder

It wasn't so much the brief duration of President Obama's trip to New Orleans that riled the Katrina-smarties -- the folks who've spent the past several years obsessing, healthily, about the destruction of an American city.  It was that, when he spoke there, he got his facts wrong. And he got his facts wrong to such an extent that he convinced folks like Harry Shearer that Obama has no idea what really happened during Katrina.

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Oct 16 2009, 5:00PM

Mickey Edwards On Olympia Snowe's "Betrayal"

by Marc Ambinder

Former GOP Congressman Mickey Edwards, now an Atlantic Correspondent, writes that   "Olympia Snowe is guilty of no more than having taken her oath of office seriously.  It's something more of her colleagues should try."  
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Oct 16 2009, 4:07PM

Rethink 2: The Chamber's Not Powerful?

by Marc Ambinder

It's been a tough week for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. A "lousy" week, writes Pulitzer-Prize-winning business columnist Steven Pearlstein. The Chamber's honesty was called into question when Mother Jones revealed that the Chamber routinely used a figure of 3,000,000 to describe the organization's membership when a more accurate figure is roughly a tenth of that.  The Chamber's response is that, well,  Mother Jones inflates its numbers, but besides that, the Chamber has regularly used both numbers, and accurately. It has 300,000 members but about 3,000,000 organizations are affiliated with organizations that pay national Chamber dues. It represents both types -- direct members, and companies that are represented by direct members -- in its lobbying activities.  That's not an unfair point, although the Chamber is probably going to be quite careful about making the distinction in the future.
 

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Oct 16 2009, 3:54PM

Remainders: What You're Missing On A Rainy Friday

by Marc Ambinder

The NSA is collecting so much data that a new number might have to be invented to describe the size of its database. (NY Review)

Binyan Mohamed torture documentation might soon be released to journalists. The UK government will appeal. The docs could shed light on how MI6 was complicit with the CIA in facilitating the torture of detainees. (The Telegraph)

More good news for Democrats on health care: the CBO score of two of the three House bills ends up at $905 billion or less. (Washington Post)

New HELP committee chairman Tom Harkin says the final Senate bill will include a public option. (TWI)

Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) is speaking to the Western CPAC convention in Newport Beach (Orange County!) California. (TPM)

The Department of Homeland Security has no INTENTION of reading your e-mail. Capability? They'll have that. (NextGov)

Telecom immunity docs might soon be released, sans the names of the companies in question. (Politico)
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Oct 16 2009, 3:37PM

Ad Of The Week: Culver's "Balanced Budget"

by Marc Ambinder

The goal: let independents and moderates know that Gov. Chet Culver (D) is committed to fiscal discipline. Former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) entered the gubernatorial race today, and he's popular enough with Iowans to make this race one of the tightest in recent memory.  Yesterday, Culver hinted that he was going to have some candid conversations with state employee unions about the need for them to cut their pay in order to help balance the budget.

Larger implication: this is how Democratic candidates in purple states are reacting to the toxic political landscape and the concerns about the debt and the deficit.

Producer: Karl Struble
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Oct 15 2009, 7:22PM

Why Liberals Shouldn't Lay Off Obama

by Marc Ambinder

Judging from the headline, "Liberals, Lay Off Obama," Peter Beinart, in The Daily Beast, wants to make an argument about why liberal criticism of Barack Obama is counter-productive.  He ends up making a different argument: Obama, it seems, is governing as a liberal, and doing a good job of it.
If he gets health-care reform, Obama will have done more to rebuild the American welfare state in one year than his two Democratic predecessors, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, did in a combined twelve.
And that's true. And lots of liberals are happy. But that doesn't mean they ought to accept this blueberry pie and close their mouths.

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Oct 15 2009, 3:50PM

The Administration's Latest Job Claims: Be Skeptical

by Marc Ambinder

Based on the thin slice of government data that's being reported today -- and, let's face it, based on the propensity of those in power to portray their own data in its rosiest light, it's wise to be skeptical of the administration's latest claims about the stimulus and the jobs it has created or saved. One would think that, having made projections about jobs that turned out not to be true, the administration would refrain from jawboning.

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Oct 15 2009, 2:17PM

Hillary's More Popular Than Obama. Here's Why.

by Marc Ambinder

HRC.jpg
This datum reflects several factors. One is a natural/artificial drift downward for the president, the result of his being the president for eight months. Another is that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has been fairly invisible to the public eye for the same period of time. And if there's one HillaryLand lesson that still applies, it's that when Clinton keeps her head down, focuses on the work and evinces no political ambition, people like her. A lot.  Notice that Clinton's numbers have stayed about the same from January to October. It's clear that people don't associate her portfolio with President Obama's domestic agenda, which is the main artificial depredation. You might even extrapolate, on the basis of this datum only, that Obama's foreign policy agenda has weathered the events of the past eight months rather nicely.
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Oct 15 2009, 11:32AM

The Chamber Of Commerce, Cut Down To Size

by Marc Ambinder

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has longed claimed, and I've probably printed, that they've got a membership roster exceeding 3,000,000 businesses.  When a company like, oh, say, Apple, decides to dis-affiliate, the Chamber press shop has been able to say, apparently with a straight face, that 2,999,999 entities still support the group. The implication: Apple (and Excelon and Nike) are just a few crumbs off the side of a mountain. (Privately, Chamber officials contend that these companies caved to pressure from Democrats and are afraid of retaliation from the administration.)

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Oct 15 2009, 11:21AM

What's Glenn Beck Up To? Something Big, He Says

by Marc Ambinder

Hey -- we like conspiracies too! Here's one, with some fact attached to it: conservative media icon Glenn Beck is planning something big -- very big -- for 2010. On his radio show yesterday, Beck alluded to a major nationwide mobilization project of some kind that he and some colleagues will soon announce. "If you think the 9/12 project was something...you ain't seen nothing yet," he said (roughly -- I didn't have a pen handy when he uttered this).

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Oct 14 2009, 2:55PM

The Most Sensitive Subject In Washington

by Marc Ambinder

It's not national security. It's not Charlie Rangel. It's ... the currency.

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Oct 14 2009, 11:21AM

A Snapshot Of Tennessee: False Beliefs About Obama Persevere

by Marc Ambinder

A reputable poll out of Tennessee this morning shows how mere evidence and facts aren't enough to deter the perseverance of false beliefs. The quarterly Middle Tennessee State University Survey finds that 34% of adults believe that President Obama was born in another country. 47% of Republicans hold that belief. About a third -- 30% -- say Obama is a Muslim. 46% -- and this includes many Democrats and independents -- say he's a socialist. Put aside the socialist finding for a second. The first two claims -- that Obama is a Muslim and/or was born outside the U.S. -- have been definitely, repeatedly and loudly debunked by the press, by watchdog groups, and by Republicans. A reasonable person, looking at the facts and putting him or herself at a distance from whatever emotions entangle one's appraisal of Barack Obama, cannot help but come to that conclusion. Obama was born in the US; he's not Muslim. These facts are as fact-y as facts can get. And yet -- among adults in a major American state, false beliefs prevail and flourish. What are we to make of this?

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Oct 14 2009, 11:12AM

The Curious Resignation Of Robert Wexler

by Marc Ambinder

Today, Rep. Robert Wexler (D-FL), a well-regarded young congressman with a good job and enough seniority to ensure that he is comfortable, will announce his resignation from the House of Representatives. The reason: he intends to perform other work in a "public policy" capacity. Initially, speculint (speculative intelligence) placed Wexler as the head of USAID at the State Department, or perhaps even as ambassador to Israel. But an administration official told reporters last night that, so far as he knows, Wexler wouldn't be joining the administration. Reports from South Florida indicate that Wexler has decided to become the head of the Center for Middle East Peace and Economic Cooperation.

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Oct 13 2009, 5:49PM

Insurance Lobby Miscalculated: Some Evidence

by Marc Ambinder

Let's get the chain of events correct: 

Some insurance industry CEOs start to panic about reform. They press their DC lobby, America's Health Insurance Plans, to do something about it. 

AHIP asks PriceWaterhouseCooper to score a few of the Baucus mark's provisions.

Sunday, the industry issues what would quickly become a widely debunked report about what health insurance reform would mean for your health insurance premiums. Even GOPers are reluctant to use the report as a talking point -- so effectively did the White House and Democrats discredit it.

Investors freak out and start selling off their health insurance stock. PriceWaterhouseCooper acknowledges that their report was partial and incomplete.

Today, unbowed, the Senate Finance Committee passes the Baucus bill.

Only then do health insurance stocks start to rebound.

Maybe it's foolish to look at the stock prices... But it doesn't seem as if AHIP's getting a lot of traction for their last-minute panicked attack. 
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Oct 13 2009, 3:00PM

Top Ten Reasons Why The GOP Website Relaunch Is Fizzlin'

by Marc Ambinder

10. In a section devoted to "future leaders," there were none. 
9. In the subsequent rush to get up a "future leaders" page, they choose "you."
8. The last GOP accomplishment cited on the accomplishment page was from 2004. 
7. The what's up page -- hip! starts with this sentence: ""the internet has been around for a while now" 
6. Administrator passwords were accidentally posted. 
5. When the RNC hosted a kick-off conference call, the website was down. 
4. The website cites Jackie Robinson as a GOP hero. Robinson wasn't a GOPer, and he criticized the GOP on race. Robinson left the party because of its views on race. He had been, as a reader points out, a Republican for many years.
3. The first question on the conference call was from an Hispanic Republican who asked why the GOP site didn't have a Spanish-language page and noted that the White House had one. 
2. Bragging about web redesigns is so 2004.

1. It's not timed with the start of any major advocacy campaign -- or political campaign. And it portrays itself as something it's not: diverse and ready to embrace new ideas. That may be what the party leadership aspires to, but, at least when it comes to diversity, a few pictures of Hispanics and African Americans doesn't make up for ... well, the history of the party.  
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Oct 13 2009, 2:13PM

Will Chris Daggett Fall Victim To The Ballot Order Effect?

by Marc Ambinder

New Jersey's independent, Springsteen-loving gubernatorial candidate, Chris Dagget, is on a roll. He's finally getting solid attention from the Manhattan television markets, he's getting major endorsements, and one of his opponents is making fun of another for being fat. But Daggett faces a ballot problem. Not ballot access itself ... he's on the ballot ... It's ballot design.

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Oct 13 2009, 1:07PM

Snowe's "Yes" A Surprise

by Marc Ambinder

Sen. Olympia Snowe's "yes" vote today on the Senate Finance Committee's health reform mark is butter. A "no vote" would have been a kind of margarine. Snowe wants maximum leverage over the final bill. This committee vote is at least three steps removed from that end game. Voting "yes," at this moment, is a marker. Translated, it means, quite simply, that Snowe will vote "yes" on cloture after the House-Senate conference so long as the final bill roughly approximates the Baucus mark.  The vote is a win for the White House, which has courted Sen. Snowe quite aggressively since the beginning of the year. It is a win, of sorts, for Baucus, because it means that his bill -- still to be reconciled with another Senate bill -- gains leverage.

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Oct 13 2009, 11:58AM

Corzine's Mean Jab Might Backfire

by Marc Ambinder

"Do you think Chris Christie is fat?" the reporter repeated, point blank.

The governor patted his pate and asked, "Am I bald?" without missing a beat -- eliciting lots of laughs from other reporters

So long as television does politics, image and sound will matter more than words. That's why, despite the fact that our frontal cortex's moralism insists that Creigh Deeds's mild stuttering should not matter,  despite the fact that Chris Christie's obesity should not matter, it will matter. It's not what ought to be; it's what is. But here is where some political consultants seem to go off the rails. To paraphrase Alan Bennett, voters don't mind when a politician's tongue is in her cheek... they do mind when they suspect their hearts are in it, too.  In other words: it's ok to notice these things. It's even ok to joke about them -- subtly.  But because voters like to think that they judge politicians on their merits, even as they are subconsciously influenced by visuals and sound and their own presuppositions, they don't like it when people force them to make superficial judgments.  And that's what Jon Corzine, in his mean little jab above, has done.  From the standpoint of stigma, comparing baldness to fatness is like comparing Captain Picard's ethics to Quark's 
 
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