Politics with Marc Ambinder

Marc Ambinder

Marc is an associate editor at the Atlantic, where he curates its influential political channel and contributes to the magazine. He is also a contributing editor to National Journal. In late 2007, he was named chief political consultant to CBS News. Marc spent a year and a half at the Hotline, where he was the founding editor of "Hotline On Call," a pathbreaking political news blog. He was a producer and reporter for the ABC News Political and was one of the founders of ABC's "The Note.” He's a 2001 graduate of Harvard and lives in Washington, D.C.

Recently by Marc Ambinder

Feb 9 2010, 4:47PM

Procedure-Propism

by Marc Ambinder

One in a continuing series about Democrats not using Senate procedure in the manner best befitting their majority.

There are two votes today -- cloture on NRLB nominee Craig Becker and Third Circuit Court of Appeals nominee Joseph Greenaway.  

If they had held the vote on Becker first, they might used his possible rejection as a way to make a point about Scott Brown -- i.e., he "came to DC and used his first vote to say NO to working families and put the national Republican agenda in front of his own constituents." 

But they voted on  Greenaway first -- so Brown's first vote is an easy, bipartisan yes,

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Feb 9 2010, 3:04PM

The Obama Obesity Proposals: The Good, The Bad, The Missing

by Marc Ambinder

With a flourish of his pen, President Obama signed an executive order this morning creating yet another national anti-obesity strategy. He was flanked by gaggle of usual suspects -- and his wife, Michelle Obama, for whom combating childhood obesity is a cause. First ladies, you see, have "causes."  (Barbara Bush's was literacy. Laura Bush's was literacy.)  Childhood obesity prevention needs a mission manager.

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Feb 9 2010, 10:08AM

Palin Puts Together A ... Campaign?

by Marc Ambinder

Sarah Palin is putting together a campaign team, and Washington is taking notice. Mark Leibovich of the New York Times described her bare-bones political operation. Here is what I know: she is not worried about fundraising right now. Pam Pryor, a former RNC senior adviser, leads Palin's political action committee and is orchestrating her outreach to social conservatives. Randy Scheunenmann remains her policy maestro, with informal assistance from his Orion Strategies colleague Michael Goldfarb, the former Weekly Standard writer and McCain campaign rapid responder. (Goldfarb did not return an e-mail seeking comment about his future in Palin's world.) Fred Malek is perhaps the single Washington establishment figure that Palin turns to, although Malek has insisted that he is neutral about the presidential race --- though he admits to having a soft spot in his heart for Palin.

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Feb 9 2010, 8:01AM

Getting Sarah Palin's Paradigm

by Marc Ambinder

"If the primaries were this year, I suspect she'd be nominated," a senior adviser to one of Sarah Palin's potential rivals confides.  It's easy to see why: no one who's thinking of running beats the enthusiasm she generates among Republican activists. But there is more to the case for Palin than just the confluence of her personality and a vacuum within the Republican Party: there is a method to her management of her public image. It strongly hints that she has pretty much decided to run for president in 2012, unless something knocks her out of the race; it is more organized and structured that it appears; and it is something that Republican insiders, in particular, will ignore at their peril.

Next week, Palin will be a VIP guest of honor at the Daytona International Speedway for the Daytona 500. She'll walk among the campers and RVs set up infield. This summer, she's agreed to speak at an international bowling expo. In April, in Las Vegas, Palin will keynote the Wine and Spirit Wholesalers Convention at Caesar's Palace. She will make choices in Republican primaries -- she campaigned Sunday with Rick Perry, bearing a "Hi mom!" on her palm -- more on that in a bit -- and an eloquent jab at the President: "'We will proudly cling to our guns and our religion."

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Feb 8 2010, 8:35PM

Obama's Nuclear Strategy Evolving

by Marc Ambinder

Per a scheduling notice: "On Wednesday, February 10, the Vice President will deliver a speech on the future of the United States' nuclear deterrent capabilities and lay out the plan for implementing the President's nonproliferation and nuclear security agenda. In addition, he will outline how the Administration's budget request and other efforts will support the President's vision of reducing the nuclear dangers facing our country as we pursue the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons."

This speech may or may not take place because of the weather, but if it does, I hear it is going to be newsy.
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Feb 7 2010, 6:24PM

Couric Interviews Obama -- And He Makes News

by Marc Ambinder

The president makes news about health care -- he's going to try and force the GOP to cooperate -- and he's not backing away from trying KSM in federal court.  
Watch CBS News Videos Online
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Feb 6 2010, 11:32PM

Sarah Palin Gave A Campaign Speech

by Marc Ambinder

And that's pretty much all you need to know. So much of a campaign speech was it that I am revising upward my estimate of the chances she runs for president in 2012. So much so that I am evaluating my basic Palin assumption, which is that she has decided not to run for office.  Nominally the speech was a rallying cry for the Tea Party movement, but it was really an "I Told You So" series of verbal slings at President Obama, his budget, his national security policies and his liberalism. Some memorable lines:

"How's that hope-y, change-y stuff working out for ya." (re: Obama.)

"We win, you lose." (Her description of her national security philosophy.)

"It's no wonder that our president only spent about 9 percent of his State of the Union address discussing national security, foreign policy, because there aren't a whole lot of victories he can talk about."
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Feb 6 2010, 12:24PM

FBI's High-level Interrogation Group Is Up And Running

by Marc Ambinder

The White House and the Justice Department confirmed reports that the Justice Department's new High-Value Detainee Interrogation Group (HIG) is functioning and actively participating in terrorism investigations.

What follows is a bit of a roadmap as to what happens -- or what should happen -- when Abdulmuttalab-like cases arise.

National Security Adviser James Jones signed a 1/28 classified order standing up the HIG as well as mobile interrogation teams, the Washington Post reported.

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Feb 6 2010, 11:07AM

How The U.S. Lost Its Home Field Surveillance Advantage

by Marc Ambinder

AUSTIN, TEXAS -- When the U.S. government talked in open congressional hearings about their "home field advantage" in monitoring worldwide communications, they weren't kidding. 

About 80% of the world's telecom traffic was handled by routers based in the United States before 2001.  After the program was revealed by the New York Times in 2005 and the government tacitly acknowledged that it had set up special technology to monitor the routers, the percentage of worldwide telecom traffic that the U.S. had immediate access to dropped dramatically, a technology expert who informally advises the government said today.

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Feb 6 2010, 9:45AM

How The Hackers Took Google: A Theory

by Marc Ambinder

AUSTIN, TX -- Fred Chang has a theory about how hackers affiliated with the Chinese government hacked into Google and at least two dozen other major American companies. Chang  is a professor of computer science at the University of Texas -- so we should listen to him. But he is also the former director of research for the National Security Agency, so he has a pretty good idea of what hackers can do -- and whether these things can be picked up by the government or industry.

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Feb 5 2010, 3:45PM

Intel. Community To Clarify How It Can Use Open Source Info About Americans

by Marc Ambinder

AUSTIN, TEXAS -- The chief civil liberties protection officer for the intelligence community disclosed today that the government would soon issue guidelines to analysts charged with sifting through open-source -- or publicly available -- information about U.S. persons with possible connections to terrorism or espionage.

'If you have taken steps to follow the terms and conditions of your website and that information is not available general public, then that information is not available to analysts under our U.S. persons rule," said Alexander Joel, who works for the Office of the Director of Office of National Intelligence. "That's the sort of guidance we'll be issuing." (If the persons in question do have connections to terrorism, the guidelines, one presumes, will differ.)

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Feb 5 2010, 1:35PM

Revisiting A Famous Hospital Confrontation

by Marc Ambinder

AUSTIN, TEXAS -- Just what was it that, in 2004,  nearly caused the director of the FBI and the deputy attorney general to resign, and which culminated in a dramatic (and now dramatized) hospital-room confrontation between senior Justice Department officials and then-White House counsel Alberto Gonzales?

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Feb 5 2010, 11:03AM

Both Parties Can Benefit From Shelby's Pork Hunger

by Marc Ambinder

Seems to me that if you're a party frustrated by procedural roadblocks erected by Republicans, if you've lost a Senate race in part because of a trade known as the Cornhusker Kickback, if the White House communications director gently (but actually) upbraids Republicans for their out-sized penchant for filibustering, if you're trying to really hammer the point home that the reason why it seems that your party can't govern or get results is due to factors beyond your control... you'd turn Richard Shelby's unprecedented blanket hold on 70 nominees for reasons no more pure than the preservations of two favorite programs into not only a talking point... but also a way of justifying recess appointments for these nominees. And if you were the Republican Party, or a Republican candidate who wanted to run against Washington, wouldn't you blast Shelby too? Robert Gibbs, the White House press secretary, called the Shelby hold "the post child for how this town needs to change the way it works, I fear there won't be a greater example of silliness throughout the entire year of 2010."
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Feb 5 2010, 10:06AM

Democrats Weigh Changes To Nomination Calendar

by Marc Ambinder

Earlier this week, the Democratic National Committee's Change Commission -- tasked with cleaning up the remnants of the Great Nomination Calendar Debacle Of 2008 -- laid down some markers for the future. If -- and it's a big if -- these changes stick -- and we're a long ways away from that, because the Democratic Party is anything but a dictatorship -- the 2016 primaries could be rather different in pace than the 2008 primaries. (I'm assuming here that Howard Dean doesn't mount a credible primary challenge to Barack Obama in 2012. Then again, I did not know who Scott Brown was in mid-December.)

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Feb 5 2010, 9:56AM

For The White House, Cautious Optimism On The Economy

by Marc Ambinder

On its face, the White House should be thrilled with the unemployment picture that the Department of Labor released this morning: a drop from 10.0% to 9.7%, and a significant drop in the broader U6 measure -- nearly a full percentage point to 16.5%. Two reasons: companies seem to be converting part-time employees to full-time employees, and the number of people looking for part-time work declined.  Does this mean that confidence is back? Not necessarily. It could mean that productivity gains over the past year have been higher than originally believed. Or it could represent a short-term behavioral change that has more to do with the vagaries of the holiday season than anything else. (UI rates for certain groups, like African Americans and teenagers.)  Worrisome  for the White House, and a harbinger for things to come: a decline in state and local government employment.  "Today's numbers showing a decline in construction and state and local government emphasize the importance of two other of the President's priorities -- continued infrastructure investment and additional aid for strapped state and local governments," the White House said in a statement.  Politically: great timing for the jobs bill.
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Feb 5 2010, 8:00AM

Minimization: A Term You Need To Know

by Marc Ambinder

AUSTIN, TX --  A good metaphor for the intersection of privacy and intelligence collection may not be a see-saw; that implies that a perfect balance can be struck between the two values. I picture a stork trying to balance on a Bosu ball. Occasionally, there will be moments of equilibrium, but the basic state is one of jitters and tension. 

The Texas Law Review is holding a symposium here on privacy, technology and national security. Virtually everyone in the field, from academics to the Justice Department's senior national security prosecutor to investigative journalists like Michael Isikoff of Newsweek and Mark Mazzetti of the New York Times are all participating in some fashion. 

Planners expect a frank debate on many significant issues; some of them are beyond the ken of a blog post. Others are too important to ignore. Today, two men shared a ride from the Austin airport to a downtown hotel. One was William C. Banks, the director of the Institute for National Security and Counterterrorism at Syracuse University. The other was Alexander Joel, the civil liberties protection officer of the Director of National Intelligence. Coincidentally, both men have published papers for this symposium; the subject is the same: the scope and limitations of technological intelligence collection. Their approaches illustrate the Bosu-ball metaphor quite profoundly.

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Feb 3 2010, 4:04PM

Nonproliferation Budget Increases Dramatically

by Marc Ambinder

Lost in the hullabaloo over the administration's commitment to spend $5 billion over 5 years on managing and modernizing the nuclear stockpile are significant budget increases for nonproliferation activities. The total request for the 2011 fiscal year is $2.7 billion, up nearly a quarter -- or $551 million from the past year.

The United States's National Nuclear Security Agency (NNSA) has the largest nonproliferation budget in the world. Programs include the Global Threat Reduction Initiative, which saw its budget increase by 67%. This money pays for the multi-agency teams that travel around the world securing loose nuclear material and shipping it back to the U.S. or to Russia. These are the front-line warriors in the nonproliferation game -- the "white" ops part of it.

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Feb 3 2010, 2:10PM

Brown Surprise: Seat Me Now!

by Marc Ambinder

Now that his election as Senator from Massachusetts has been certified, Scott Brown wants to get to work -- and much more quickly than his colleagues in the Senate had prepared for. Brown's campaign counsel asked Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick to sign the formal certification by tomorrow morning, so Brown can take the papers and present them to the Senate tomorrow and demand that he be seated.

But Brown and the Senate leadership had agreed to swear the new senator in on Feb. 11, which would give Brown the time to put a staff together and find a place to stay in Washington. Is Brown breaking the deal? (He suggested Feb. 11 himself.)

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Feb 3 2010, 1:33PM

Ponderable: Democrats Attack The President

by Marc Ambinder

The cable elite saw Sen. Blanche Lincoln showboat a bit today with her challenging language to the president today at the Newseum; they're talking about Sen. Harry Reid's push-bash against a seemingly innocuous jibe at the popular image of Las Vegas by the president; they've read about how Robin Carnahan, who is running for Senate in Missouri, is touting her own deficit reduction plans and comparing them, favorably, to the president's.

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Feb 2 2010, 11:33PM

Indiana Republicans Find Their Coats

by Marc Ambinder

It's a cold winter, but Indiana Republicans managed to recruit a top-tier candidate to take on Sen. Evan Bayh: Dan Coats, the former Republican senator from Indiana and ambassador to Germany, now a Washington policy adivser and a lobbyist.   Bayh succeeded Coats in 1998. The news of Coats's political comeback was first reported by the Howey Politics Indiana. Coats is a household name in the state and will be able to raise a lot of money instantly.

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Feb 2 2010, 9:39PM

Illinois Primaries: An Update

by Marc Ambinder

UPDATE: As of 11:30 pm ET, the governors races are incredibly tight, with Quinn clinging to a small lead and the GOP field completely scrambled.  Follow Hotline On Call all night for results.

----

No major surprises from tonight's Illinois primaries.  As of 9:30 pm ET,  Andy McKenna, the former state party chair, was leading the seven-person GOP field. (The Tea Party candidate, in case you're wondering, Adam Andrzejewski, is getting about an eighth of the vote, despite a wave of recent publicly.) McKenna outspent the rest of the field.

Governor Pat Quinn, who took over from Rod Blagojevich, was leading his challenger, Dan Hynes.

State Treasurer and Obama pal Alexi Giannoulias maintains his slim pre-election edge over former Chicago ethics cops (there is such a species!) David Hoffmann.

As expected, Rep. Mark Kirk is walking away with the vote in the Republican primary. There will be a bunch of analysts who say that he should have won more than the roughly 60 to 65% of the vote he's going to win, and that spells trouble for him in the fall.

Follow my colleagues at Hotline On Call for full results and analysis.
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Feb 2 2010, 4:33PM

Why Is McCain Red Hot On Don't Ask, Don't Tell?

by Marc Ambinder

As has been noted by virtually everyone now, John McCain in 2010 is not the John McCain of 2006. And that might be the reason for his white-hot rage at the Defense Secretary and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, both of whom endorsed an end to the Don't Ask, Don't Tell policy today. Long-time McCain aides couldn't point me to a specific incident when McCain changed his mind. And he did change his mind -- or so it seemed.

And I understand the opposition to it, and I've had these debates and discussions, but the day that the leadership of the military comes to me and says, senator, we ought to change the policy, then I think we ought to consider seriously changing it because those leaders in the military are the ones we give the responsibility to.

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Feb 2 2010, 3:45PM

The White House's Shame Strategy

by Marc Ambinder

If there are any immutable laws of the political universe right now, there seem to be two:

1. Bipartisanship, on any issue of consequence, does not exist as a force in the universe. Proximately, it's because Republicans know that the benefit they're deriving in the short term far exceeds the criticism they're getting from the political elite. One reason is that the party's base, egged on by the Tea Party movement, encourages and rewards their behavior. There are many other reasons -- congressional Democrats aren't entirely blameless -- but Ron Brownstein, James Fallows and President Obama have all offered persuasive theories. Add to that mass migration of Americans to the sunbelt, immigration, the ability of outside interests to enforce party conformity, a campaign finance system that rewards self-interest, and archaic Senate rules -- well, bipartisanship is dead. The entire Republican Senate conference voting against a deficit reduction commission that many of them had previously endorsed? Surprised, David Broder? How can you blame that on liberals? You can't.

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Feb 2 2010, 9:22AM

Rumor Patrol: Biden and Crist Did Not Meet In Florida

by Marc Ambinder

Florida Politicos are agog, passing along speculation that Gov. Charlie Crist and Vice President Joe Biden had a secret dinner meeting in Miami on January 16, ostensibly to talk about Crist's potentially abandoning his Republican Senate bid and running as an independent or a Democrat.  The rumors are completely false, but numerous reporters contacted the Vice President's office to ask about them today. Even a mere hint that Crist was thinking about running as an independent or a Democrat would virtually guarantee a primary win for Marco Rubio, his opponent.
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Feb 2 2010, 7:08AM

Even Schumer Is Suffering

by Marc Ambinder

Sen. Chuck Schumer's approval rating has dropped below 50%, his lowest number since 2001, a sign that the Democratic Party's travails are dragging down the approval of one of its most politically savvy senators. A Marist poll out today finds that 47% of registered voters say Schumer is doing an "excellent or good" job in office. "Senator Schumer is not immune from the anti-incumbent sentiment among voters, but it would take a major effort to unseat him," says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist Institute for Public Opinion, in a statement. Schumer's potential troubles are kindling the flames of a protest candidate: Larry Kudlow, the former Reagan administration economics official-turned cocaine addict-turned reformed CNBC anchor.  Earlier this week, Kudlow dined with Mike Long, the head of the Conservative Party. Long told the New York Daily News that Kudlow was "dead serious" about a run. It's not clear where Kudlow lives -- he has an apartment in New York, but he seems to spend most of his time in Connecticut.
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Feb 2 2010, 6:48AM

Pentagon To Announce End To Third Party Outings

by Marc Ambinder

When Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint of Chiefs of Staff, testify before Congress today, they are expected to announce a series of first steps in the direction of preparing the military for the integration of gays and lesbians. According to an administration official, the most visible of those steps will be to revise the rule that allows third parties -- other soldiers or outside accusers -- to "out" soldiers and precipitate investigations that lead to their dismissal. Basically: if someone else outs you, you won't be dismissed. It's not clear what percentage of Don't Ask, Don't Tell dismissals would be effected by this revision.

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Feb 1 2010, 4:07PM

The Sevugan v. Conant Budget Super-clash

by Marc Ambinder

WARNING  * WARNING * WARNING *  For INSIDERS only. If you're not an insider, your eyes will glaze over.

On the right: Alex "Iron Jaw" Conant, senior adviser to Gov. Tim Pawlenty, a potential 2012 aspirant. 

On the left: Hari "Boom Boom" Seguvan, the DNC spokesperson in charge of keeping tabs on potential 2012 presidential candidates.

After noticing that the Democratic National Committee e-mailed reporters an article from The Hill about how "Democrats go after Pawlenty's credibility to bash the budget," Conant e-mailed Sevugan and blind copied reporters:

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Feb 1 2010, 4:02PM

Obama's Secret Wiretap Memo

by Marc Ambinder

An intrepid reporter from Wired noticed a most unusual reference in a mostly redacted paragraph on page 265 of a Justice Department Office of Inspector General report about how the FBI and telecoms colluded to improperly -- or illegally -- wiretap thousands of Americans.

Here it is:

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Feb 1 2010, 3:17PM

Why Did Justice Delay The Yoo/Bybee Report?

by Marc Ambinder

Attorney General Eric Holder is bearing the brunt of the blame for allegedly helping to water down an internal department investigation into the legal architecture of the Bush administration's war against terrorism. The reality is that David Margolis, the career official in the department with the most seniority, had near complete authority over the most sensitive parts of Office of Professional Review's report -- its conclusion and recommendations. He did not write them, but officials said that Margolis, because of longtime Justice practice, had the discretion to accept or reject or modify the sanctions suggested by the OPR attorneys and the reasons they cited for those sanctions.

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Feb 1 2010, 12:15PM

The Corporations Already Outspend The Parties

by Marc Ambinder

For the first time in recent history, the lobbying, grassroots and advertising budget of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has surpassed the spending of BOTH the Republican National Committee and Democratic National Committee.

This is significant. It means that the Great Transition has already begun.  In the days following the decision in Citizens United, campaign finance experts predicted that the decision would open the floodgates of money for trade associations like the Chamber of Commerce. The influx of corporate money, according to some, would weaken the power of the political parties and candidates and lead the political parties to become less important. Republican lawyer Ben Ginsberg went so far as to say that the parties would be "threatened by extinction." And Ginsberg supports the CU decision!

As it turns out, the surge of contributions into the U.S. Chamber has already caused its budget on lobbying, grassroots and advertising to surpass that of both the Republican National Committee and the Democratic National Committee for the first time in recent memory. According to The Center for Responsive Politics, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and its national subsidiaries spent $144.5 million in 2009, far more than the RNC and more than double the expenditures by the DNC.
corporate.JPGThe Chamber spent much of its money in 2009 on campaigns that worked -- it scared the Senate away from considering a version of the Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade legislation, and an argument can be made that its cutting ads on health care (with money taken from some insurance companies) helped to undercut support for the legislation.

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Jan 31 2010, 6:24PM

Should Edwards Aides Be Shamed And Blamed?

by Marc Ambinder

Late Friday night, having browsed through Andrew Young's book exposing bare the details of John Edwards's extensive cover-up of his reckless decisions, I tweeted that "The senior staff who covered for John Edwards should be identified and shamed out of the Dem consulting world."  I stand by that Tweet. Like a lawyer, political strategists often subordinate their own personal interests to advocate for the aims of their clients. Candidates, being human, often make human mistakes, and occasionally, strategists, consultants and staff devise a plan to smooth out the characterological pleats.

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Jan 31 2010, 1:55PM

Sunday Snapshot: Everyone Hearts Scott Brown

by Marc Ambinder

One of the more compelling Sunday Show slates in recent memory, with the lion's den appearance of Roger Ailes on ABC's This Week with...Barbara Walters...and Candy Crowley being named host of State of the Union on CNN (with John King moving to weekdays at 7pm).

The headlines: everybody loves Scott Brown. Ripped from the fictional SNL sketch last night.

On Don't Ask, Don't Tell, Rep. John Boehner: "While at a time when Americans are asking where are the jobs, why do we want to get in this debate? while we're fighting over health care and trying to find some way to come to common ground, why do we want to get into a divisive debate that will do nothing more than distract the real debate that should occur here about helping to get our economy going again and getting American people back to work."

BTW: Boehner said he'd support a scrub of the Pentagon's budget to look for unnecessary spending, too. (House Speaker Pelosi said she'd insist on it.)

Brown, on Don't Ask, Don't Tell: basically, he wants to hear from the generals. He's still pro-choice.

And on the Tea Parties? "Somebody would never come up to me and say, by the way, I'm a Tea Party member; I'm supporting you.  It never happened."

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Jan 29 2010, 4:46PM

Obama, Blah Blah -- And I Got His Autograph!

by Marc Ambinder

This Tweet today from @virginiafoxx (R-NC):

Pres gave us another lecture. Our guys asked great questions. Need independent fact checker for his comments. Got autograph
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Jan 29 2010, 4:10PM

The Still Tricky Politics Of Don't Ask, Don't Tell

by Marc Ambinder

The skepticism in some quarters that the Department and Defense and President Obama really intend to integrate gays and lesbians into the military is not without some grounding. One fear is that his Don't Ask, Don't Tell repeal pledge is a way of pandering to white liberals while the president presses ahead with spending cuts. Or that the president won't fight to make sure that his intentions are turned into policy -- that if he were serious, he'd have supported the language being added to the Defense appropriations bill. Others say that, even if there is buy-in from the Joint Chiefs of Staff, even if they seem to come up with a sensible integration procedure, that social conservatives will be driven into a frenzy, putting enough pressure on the Senate to prevent Congress from passing the repeal. (This would give Obama the chance to say, "Hey, I tried.")

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Jan 29 2010, 3:20PM

A Democratic Senate Narrative Comes Together

by Marc Ambinder

In the wake of the Massachusetts Brown out -- or -- hastened by that event -- the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee wants their Senate candidate to emphasize two main points on the campaign trail: pin down Republican opposition to a tax on banks -- and pin down Republican support of the Citizens United decision, which would open the door to increased corporate influence in American elections. Republicans know they've got to figure out a response, as Glen Bolger, an architect of Bob McDonnell's victory in Virginia, has attested.

Most of President Obama's agenda has united the Republicans in opposition, but a bank tax is one of the few things with the potential to drive a wedge through the Republican ranks.

"I think there is going to be a lot of pressure on them," Bolger says, "because the push-back message, it's nowhere near as strong as the Democrat attack. The banks are in a tough spot on winning this policy fight."

73 percent of Americans say that Washington hasn't done enough to regulate Wall Street, according to the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. This is one reason why Democrats plan to schedule a series of votes on campaign finance -- and to try to bait Republicans into voting yes. This is one way for Democrats -- in power -- to run against powerful interests.

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Jan 29 2010, 3:00PM

Biden Sends A Message On Nukes

by Marc Ambinder

Vice President Joe Biden's op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, justifying a $5 billion-five year increase in the budget for nuclear weapons stockpile management, can be seen as the opening salvo in an administration offensive to re-frame the debate surrounding the role, purpose, and effectiveness of U.S. nuclear weapons in advance of the release of the Nuclear Posture Review and Senate ratification debates on a START follow-on agreement and the nuclear test ban treaty. For months, old school Cold War conservatives have been able to push the narrative that Democrats are content to let U.S. nuclear weapons wither into obsolescence in pursuit of a faulty vision of unilateral disarmament.

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Jan 29 2010, 1:44PM

Obama's Question Time: An Amazing Moment

by Marc Ambinder

The moment President Obama began his address to Republicans in Baltimore today, I began to receive e-mails from Democrats: Here's an except from one of them: "I don't know whether to laugh or cry that it took a f$$@&$* year for Obama to step into the ring and start throwing some verbal blows... I'm definitely praying at mass on Sunday morning that this Obama doesn't take another 12 month vacation."

This e-mail comes from a very influential Democrat.

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Jan 28 2010, 2:16PM

Pentagon To Announce Some "Don't Ask" Details Next Week

by Marc Ambinder

Before President Obama announced last night that he would work with Congress and the Pentagon to end the military's ban on service by gays and lesbians, the White House consulted Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to sign off on the language he planned to use, administration officials said.  They did. "The Pentagon is with us," the official said. And Geoff Morell, Gates's spokesman, e-mails me to say that "The Department leadership is actively working on an implementation plan and will have more to say about it next week." So -- Obama's pledge to repeal Don't Ask, Don't Tell was more than words -- he's instructed the military to get it done as soon as Congress repeals the law. A Senate hearing is set for February 2, featuring testimony from Mullens= and Gates. An outside hearing is set for February 11. Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI) doesn't know if he has the votes to cross the 60-person threshold in the Senate, but the expected endorsement by Mullen will make it difficult for opponents to argue that the military brass isn't ready.  In Tampa today, Obama reiterated his promise to end the ban:

Look, as I said last night, my belief is that a basic principle in our Constitution is that if you're obeying the law, if you're obeying the rules, you should be treated the same,  regardless of who you are. I think that principle applies to gay and lesbian couples.
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Jan 28 2010, 1:00PM

Department Of Optics: Who's On The Call?

by Marc Ambinder

Lobbyists aren't beloved by the administration these days, as a perusal of the President's State of the Union would suggest, but the Treasury Department decided to invite K-Street insiders to special access telephone briefings, according to The Hill. Perfectly within bounds and within the White House's ethics ethos, but still -- optically -- maybe they should have waited, no? A White House official notes that lobbyists and business executives and labor unions and consumer groups and independent analysts were given the same invitation, so it's not accurate to call the briefings exclusive for lobbyists.
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Jan 28 2010, 12:13PM

The Rodney Dangerfields Of Cyber?

by Marc Ambinder

I'm blatantly stealing the headline off an e-mail sent by Chris Battle of Adfero, a consultancy in Washington, D.C.  Rich Cooper, principal analyst at Catalyst Partners,  writes of a recent event about government leadership on cyber security:

In what was a first-class discussion of the challenges and issues compounding the federal and international cyber-security environment, nary a word was mentioned about DHS and the role they play in leading the country's cyber security efforts.
Truth is, DHS is not the only agency that seems a bit left out and is struggling to enhance its public reputation as the guardians of the nation. New White House cyber coordinator Howard Schmidt recently told an audience that he has the president's ear. Maybe so. But the real power in cyber -- the N.S.A. -- actually IS the President's ear. And that's one reason why it's so hard for civilian agencies to get respect.

Rodney: "Hey, I got an offer to work another hotel in Las Vegas."

Carson: "Another one?"

Rodney: "Yeah. Circus Circus. But it was a bad deal. I had to bring my own net. You know."

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Jan 28 2010, 10:49AM

Why '10 Isn't Like '94 -- Yet

by Marc Ambinder

My thesis here is that Republicans in 1994 weren't seen as obstructionists and had a better foundation upon which to erect a platform that became the Contract with America. (I do think the Contract's own role in '94 has been overstated; it's easy for us amateur historians to hang on to one factor and say that it drove an election cycle.) The GOP leadership in '10 has the ideas of the GOP leadership of '02. And those ideas aren't popular. And there isn't an organized framework to rally around. GOP strategists are relying on the bad will Americans have for the in-party. An architect of the 1994 GOP takeover, Joe Gaylord, thinks that's a mistake. Writing in the Ripon Forum, Gaylord notes that the GOP governors who won -- and Scott Brown, the new Mass. Senator -- are different.
In 2010, the GOP has not done as well in convincing non-Republicans that it has alternative solutions to the radical proposals of Barack, Nancy and Harry.  In the Massachusetts Senate race, Scott Brown gave us a good example.  He made clear that he'd be the 41st vote against Obamacare, but he also said, "We can go back to the drawing board and do it better."
(I think Gaylord is conflating some things here; Brown didn't run on a platform; he ran on an image; he supports the template for Obama-care while opposing Obama-care itself.)
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Jan 28 2010, 10:10AM

Republicans Creeping Up On Dems In CA, WI SEN Races

by Marc Ambinder

Two polls out this morning confirm the dire current environment for Democrats. PPIC, a respected firm in California, finds Republican Senate candidate Tom Campbell,who has had trouble in state GOP primaries because he is not perceived as a true conservative populist, within four points of incumbent Barbara Boxer. (In the primary, Campbell leads Carly Fiorina by 11 points and Chuck DeVore by 19 points.)  In the gubernatorial race, there are plenty of undecideds: Jerry Brown (D) is at 41%, but leads Meg Whitman (R) by five points. In Wisconsin, an IVR poll by Rasmussen shows Russ Feingold to be in trouble, but I don't know whether any Republican seriously believes that (a) Tommy Thompson will challenge the Democrat and (b) whether Feingold is really that vulnerable at the moment. (Update: I was thinking of someone else when I called Campbell a populist earlier. He's not.)

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Jan 28 2010, 10:06AM

Newt Brackets Obama's NH Visit...By Visiting New Hampshire

by Marc Ambinder

Attention 2012 watchers: Newt Gingrich is headed to New Hampshire. Smartly, the Nashua Telegraph, home newspaper of the city where President Obama is appearing next week, interviewed Gingrich about the State of the Union.

Said Gingrich:

"That's like if my two daughters in college told me they put $50,000 on their credit cards last year, but now they're going to buckle down and not spend any more," Gingrich said during a telephone interview prior to Obama's speech.

The Ging has a real reason for being in New Hampshire and talking to the papers there: he's participating in a new media summit on Saturday at the University of Southern New Hampshire.

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Jan 28 2010, 10:01AM

Remembering Howard Zinn

by Marc Ambinder

Lost in the din of State of the Union coverage yesterday was news from Boston about the death of a famous American historian, Howard Zinn. He was a man of the left. My own encounter with him was telling: at an MSNBC taping 11 years ago at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, a Kennedy school student noticed Zinn had been given a reserved seat up front. The student, not knowing who Zinn was, complained to him: "Why do you get to sit there and we students have to sit up there?" Without pausing, Zinn replied: "In life, I've learned, there are the haves ... and the have-nots."  Here's a link to one of the final interviews Zinn participated in, courtesy of the online think tank, Big Think.
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Jan 28 2010, 9:59AM

Exceptionalism In The Speech

by Marc Ambinder

Last night's State of the Union address included least three separate references to America's singular role in the world. Mr. Obama has been uncomfortable with calling America the greatest country in the world -- not because he doesn't believe it, but because he has a subtle view of what this greatness entails. Usually, he means to suggest that our strength derives from our self-corrective capacity, rather than from some Providential or historical source. Last night, exceptionalism animated his speech: because we are America, we can solve these problems. America has a role to play in history. ("I do not accept second-place for the United States of America.")
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Jan 27 2010, 9:11PM

The Full Speech Text

by Marc Ambinder

Full text of the speech -- after the jump.

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Jan 27 2010, 8:05PM

Full McDonnell Response -- Two Hours Early

by Marc Ambinder

Want to read the Republican response, delivered by Gov. Bob McDonnell (R-VA) in full? Right now? Two hours early? I've got the full text, after the jump.

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Jan 27 2010, 7:27PM

Obama's Stern Rebuke To The Supreme Court

by Marc Ambinder

The big news from the White House excerpts is that President Obama will directly rebuke the Supreme Court -- to their faces -- by saying that their ruling in Citizens United overturned a "century of precedent" and opened the "floodgates" for money from corporations and unions to pour into politics. He'll also urge Congress to pass a law prohibiting companies with foreign shareholders from contributing to politics. (Drawing the lines here is going to be tough.)  Note that the White House is preparing for a Supreme Court vacancy (or two) this summer, so Obama's remarks here have particular salience.

The White House is pointing reporters to Obama's call for Congress to require lobbyists to disclose all their contacts with White House officials and members of Congress.
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Jan 27 2010, 5:02PM

Senate Democrats' SOTU Talking Points

by Marc Ambinder

The Atlantic has obtained some talking points circulated to Senate Democrats ahead of tonight's State of the Union address. See the memo below; know what Senate Dems are saying before they even say it.

To: Interested Parties
From: Senate Democratic Communications Center
Re: Talking Points: The President and Congress Looking Toward a Year of New Challenges

The American people await the President's annual State of the Union address tonight.  The President will lay out his plan for keeping America on a path to a more secure, stable and prosperous future.  The Senate will remain aggressive in trying to deliver the change that the American people sent us to Washington to do.

THE PRESIDENT AND CONGRESS LOOKING TOWARD A YEAR OF NEW CHALLENGES

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Jan 27 2010, 2:21PM

The iPad? There's A Party For That

by Marc Ambinder

Today is a day for salesmanship of Big Things -- the president's commitment to his governing agenda in the State of the Union and the introduction of the highly anticipated -- and anti-anticipated -- Apple tablet device, named, surely to please Trekkers, the iPad. Now, the iPad is going to sell. Customers would snap it up even if they didn't know what it did, because of Apple's brand strength.

Republicans and Democrats...let's just say that their storehouses are full of excess inventory. (Democrats have a bigger store, and are losing more customers at the moment.) Perhaps the parties can borrow some lessons from the iPad marketing. Indeed, let's extend the analogy: which party best represents the iPad? Which party can best adapt the Apple philosophy to their brands?

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Jan 27 2010, 8:38AM

A Quick And Dirty Guide To The Policy In The Speech

by Marc Ambinder

Stepping into a background briefing shortly, where I'll learn more about the speech than I'll be able to share until much later. So before I do that, here's what we've learned about the policy President Obama will announce in the speech, ranked in rough order of political importance.

1. The budget freeze; 3 years; discretionary spending; the president will present this as a gesture that will set a baseline not only for this Congress but for future presidents.

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Jan 27 2010, 7:07AM

The Table: Previewing The State Of The Union Address

by Marc Ambinder

Atlantic Digital's editorial director, Bob Cohn, quizzes me on tonight's State of the Union. What's going to be in it, what Obama's going to get out of it, and what reception he's likely to get. 

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Jan 26 2010, 9:34PM

DNC Wants Former Obama Staff To Help '10 Campaigns

by Marc Ambinder

A number of former staff members for President Obama's presidential campaign received an e-mail tonight from the director of the DNC's Organizing for America arm, Mitch Stewart.

As a former Obama for America campaign staffer, you have a critical role to play this year.

At Organizing for America headquarters, we're gearing up for 2010. And just like in 2008, it's going to take a lot of hard work, a lot of energy and some of the best minds in this business.

So we're reaching out today to gauge your interest in ways of deepening your support with OFA and with the movement for change you helped spark. We've put together a brief survey to get your thoughts -- it will only take a few minutes, and it's a great way to help us as we prepare for these next months.

Please take the survey now.

Here is a link to the survey-- which -- don't worry -- you won't be able to submit unless you've gotten your special former staff e-mail identity and password.

"Your energy and commitment is what drove us forward in 2008," Stewart writes. "And your continued dedication will be essential to maintaining our momentum throughout 2010."

A bonus: the survey notes that in February of 2010, OFA will launch a social networking site for former Obama staff.  This is about 90% about 2010 and 10% prelude to setting up the reelection campaign.
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Jan 26 2010, 7:46PM

Why Even John McCain Wanted To Kill The Budget Commission

by Marc Ambinder

Congress failed to approve the Conrad-Gregg debt commission plan today, defeating it by failing to find 60 aye votes to cut off a filibuster. If the bill passed and then passed the House, Congress would have been forced to vote yay or nay on any recommendations the commission made. President Obama approved the idea. Democratic senators like Evan Bayh and Mary Landreiu voted in favor of it.

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Jan 26 2010, 6:45PM

Budget Authority Won't Solve All the DNI's Problems

by Marc Ambinder

Give the Director of National Intelligence control over the purse strings! That's the battle cry of critics of the way the U.S. intelligence system is structured. In Washington, authority without budget power is like a computer without RAM. But the DNI's problems, certainly exacerbated by his inability to threaten to cut funding from agencies if they don't comply with his requests, are much more systemic. The truth is -- and this is what scares some counterterrorism and intelligence experts -- is that the magnitude of the intelligence collection tasks that the U.S. faces will inevitably outpace the bureaucratic procedures needed to properly transform that information into useful policy advice. 

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Jan 26 2010, 5:17PM

Still Confused About Citizens United? Funny Or Die Explains.

by Marc Ambinder

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Jan 26 2010, 2:55PM

SOTU: I Can't Tell You Where "Don't Ask" Stands

by Marc Ambinder

Given that the White House press secretary confirmed reports that President Obama might mention the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" gays-in-the-military policy tomorrow night, how angry would gay rights activists become if Obama, for whatever reason, failed to bring it up? Gibbs either boxed his boss into a corner, or he's previewing an element of the speech. The D.A.D.T. specint (speculation intelligence) is based largely on the comments of Sen. Carl Levin, the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, who told reporters that he would temporarily refrain from scheduling hearings on ending the ban because he expected Obama to urge Congress to do so in the State of the Union Address.

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Jan 26 2010, 1:15PM

A Weak White House Confronts An Angry Union

by Marc Ambinder

Depositing a solid nuts and bolts tactician like David Plouffe at the Democratic National Committee -- and declaring 2010 saved -- would be like spraying a fine mist on your tuxedo and consider it clean. That's one reason the White House isn't terribly eager to brag about the Return of the Architect. (Another is that highlighting the political when the president is attempting to move away from partisanship is paradoxical.)

Rebuilding a foundation upon which Democrats can proudly run in 2010 will be hard because the party amortized its credibility through 2009. There are few ballasts still standing, and those that remain are shadows of Obama's personal charm and integrity. Congress is a non-entity.

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Jan 26 2010, 11:43AM

Two Rays Of Hope For Democrats

by Marc Ambinder

After that Blanche Lincoln scare last night -- a tweet promising a "major campaign announcement" that led CNN and MSNBC to speculate that she was retiring, Democrats are in a  bit of a panicky mood about their Senate races now.  Today, they can point to two small positive developments. First: Rep. Mike Pence has decided not to run against Sen. Evan Bayh in Indiana. Given that Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) has not expressed an interest in leaving before his term is up in 2013, Republicans don't have a top-tier potential candidate in the state, giving Bayh a bit of breathing room.

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Jan 26 2010, 7:32AM

Obama's YouTube Town Hall

by Marc Ambinder

YouTube excitedly announced this a.m. that their correspondent(s) will interview President Obama at the White House next week. Sure enough, you can submit your own questions via YouTube and then vote on them. Perhaps to ensure that the medical marijuana folks don't reprise their past glory, YouTube, owned by Google (whose CEO is an ally of Obama's) will choose "some" of the top questions and put them to the President.  Here's hoping YouTube chooses tough questions, and not softballs. ("What's your jobs plan?") Google-YouTube calls this "Your State of the Union." The White House calls it SOTU 2.0.
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Jan 25 2010, 8:13PM

Obama's Three-Year Freeze; Democrats' Brain Freeze

by Marc Ambinder

Late Monday afternoon, a small group of reporters crowded into a conference room in the Eisenhower executive office building to hear two "senior administration officials" give an embargoed briefing on what will be the most debated part of the president's budget for 2011. On Feb. 1, that budget will be released. About $447 billion will be devoted to funding the government  -- the parts that aren't mandated by law (the entitlements) or aren't related to defense, intelligence, veterans or national security issues. Obama will promise to veto any budget that exceeds that threshold, NOT adjusted for inflation, over the next three years. $250 billion would be saved over the baseline. Here's the talking point: this component of government spending will be at its lowest level relative to GDP since 1950.

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Jan 25 2010, 5:25PM

Could Democrats Lose The Senate?

by Marc Ambinder

The decision by Beau Biden not to run for Senate brings to mind an historical parallel. With no Biden in the race, with no Ted Kaufman serving another term, the Democratic candidate is likely to be New Castle County executive Chris Coons. Back in 1972, no Democrat wanted to run against a popular Republican, so a young New Castle County Councilman with no money entered the race. His name: Joe Biden.

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Jan 25 2010, 4:15PM

Beyond The Hype: How Citizens United Will -- And Won't -- Change Politics

by Marc Ambinder

The Citizens United decision will change politics -- of that there is no doubt.  Zero-sum, corporations would seem to seem to benefit from the changes in law. Corporations tend to be the one the side of Republicans, ergo; zero sum, the decision is a boon for the Republican Party.  It is hard to overstate the impact that previous Supreme Court decisions have had on campaigns, but there are reasons to believe that the changes we'll see in the short-term will be slow to evolve. And then the second-order effects of the changes -- how the law, parties and candidates adapt to the new rules -- will determine how significant CU becomes over the long-term. For 2010, think of the CU decision as providing the political world with a new weapons system. It's technologically advanced, but no one knows quite yet how to use it -- or what risks it really entails. There'll be some testing, certainly, but widespread use, in the near-term is probably unlikely.  

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Jan 24 2010, 2:37PM

Biden Misinterpreted; Leads To Unnecessary Panic Among Dems

by Marc Ambinder

The headline over Harry Thermal's column is definitive: "VP Biden: Beau doesn't want to run" Thermal, a veteran Delaware reporter, had just spoken to the Vice President via telephone and relates this exchange as follows:

Our conversation ended with a surprising request from the vice president as he hurried off to a national security meeting. Spontaneously, he turned to the possible Delaware senatorial campaign of his son Beau.

Biden: "If you run into Beau, talk him into running; he respects you."

Me: "I don't think he wants to run, though."

Biden: "I don't think he does either. I know he doesn't want to. ... I'm so proud of the job he's done [as attorney general]."

Me: "Would you campaign for him [against Republican Mike Castle]?"

Biden: "Hell, yes. I told him I'd give him my sixth-born grandchild."

I doubt Beau Biden "respects" me, but it was quite startling to hear the vice president confirm what many Democrats fear -- that Beau does not want to be the candidate.

Panic among Democrats set in quickly because Beau Biden's decision whether to run for Senate will be interpreted as a signal of whether the White House thinks that the tough political environment can be overcome by stellar candidates.  But a transcript provided by the VP's office makes it clear that Biden was talking about current senator Ted Kauffman.

VP to Harry Themal:  Always a pleasure of seeing you buddy.  Talk Ted into running, if Beau doesn't.   Talk him into running - he respects you.  I wish I had the power of appointing Senators.  I'd appoint him from Maryland if he wouldn't do Delaware. 

Harry Themal: "I don't think he wants to run, though."

VP:  No I don't think he does either. I know he doesn't.  I'm so proud of the job he's done.  God. 

Harry: Would you campaign for him?

VP:  Oh hell yeah, man.  I tell you what - I was joking if Beau didn't run - I told him I'd give him my 6th-born grandchild. And you know, he said 'I have enough of those.' Alright, buddy, thanks.  (Call ends).

Note that Biden says he told Kauffman that "if Beau didn't run" he'd give Kauffman his 6th born grandchild. If Biden had been referring to his son, he would be telling his son that he would give his son his own son. Makes no sense. Clearly, Beau Biden hasn't decided to run yet. But the VP isn't tipping his hand in this interview.
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Jan 24 2010, 1:06PM

Sunday Show Wrap + Plouffe's New Authority

by Marc Ambinder

Headline from the Sunday Shows this morning: Obama's in a fighting mood, isn't giving up on health care (but details TBA), White House in lockdown mode in not responding to questions about what Obama will say about his budget -- and Ben Bernanke's confirmation to his second FED term looks pretty much a done deal. So, if you want to stop reading now, go ahead. Permission granted.  I'd like to take the rest of my time with you today to shed a little light on what David Plouffe will be doing at the Democratic National Committee, how it ties in with the White House, and will it will ultimately mean.

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Jan 23 2010, 6:43PM

Plouffe's New Role Isn't New And Isn't A Role. Discuss

by Marc Ambinder

The news that Obama campaign manager David Plouffe will spend more time designing the party's midterm election strategy is news enough, but one broadcast network chose to call it a major political "shake-up" by Obama himself. Disappointed at the DNC's performance, the narrative goes, Obama ordered a bow-to-stern review of the DNC's operations and is placing Plouffe at the top of the hierarchy. Hey, it's a nice narrative for the base, if you can get it.

But Plouffe has been a DNC consultant for a while. He's not going to replace anyone. The DNC, in fact, ordered the review on its own. And Plouffe's strengths aren't the strengths that some suggest: he's a very good synthesizer; he's an inductive thinker; he's neither a Rovian chess player nor a Ken Mehlman-esque minutia expert.  He's a brilliant guy -- but he's not a savior-type, and he's not going to play a savior-role. 
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Jan 21 2010, 5:28PM

What Do Reformers Do Now?

by Marc Ambinder

Three scenarios being discussed by the WH and Hill Democrats:

Go back into the law and ban expenditures from corporations based on fact that they retain lobbyists or have contracts with governments. The Court would probably reject this, but Dems could pass it and the president could sign it. A modest political victory with no real effect.

Another avenue would be to impose a requirement that shareholders have to approve of expenditures from a corporation's general treasury. This might serve as a deterrent. I don't know whether this proposal would get 60 votes, nor do I know whether it would sustain a legal challenge.

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Jan 21 2010, 4:32PM

State Dept. Draws Attention To Secretary's Mistake

by Marc Ambinder

The State Department wants you to know: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton got her facts wrong. They REALLY want you to know it.

In a transcript of Clinton's remarks about cyber freedom this morning, an asterisk was appended to Clinton's introductory homage to Sen. Richard Lugar  (R-IN). 

Here's what Clinton said:

Although I can't see all of you because in settings like this, the lights are in my eyes and you are in the dark, I know that there are many friends and former colleagues.  I wish to acknowledge Charles Overby, the CEO of Freedom Forum here at the Newseum; Senator Richard Lugar* and Senator Joe Lieberman, my former colleagues in the Senate, both of whom worked for passage of the Voice Act, which speaks to Congress's and the American people's commitment to internet freedom, a commitment that crosses party lines and branches of government.

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Jan 21 2010, 2:55PM

Citizens United: Winners And Losers

by Marc Ambinder

Legal Web sites and election law experts can give you a much better read of the ins and outs of the decision, but let's get down to brass tacks: who's going to benefit, and who's going to be hurt? Quite obviously, corporations, unions and rich people who want to spend money to advocate for their causes will have a much freer hand. Since restrictions remain on party and candidate spending, and since there is a finite media space within which to spend the money, it will be extremely difficult for parties and candidates to use advertising to control messaging, public images, and the issue landscape. Again, that's all fairly obvious.

What else? Well, unions have been ballsier about figuring out how to unofficially channel money to Democratic campaigns; now that the limits are off, corporations, supposing they favor conservative interests and causes, will be able to re-balance what has been a structural imbalance in our political system.

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Jan 21 2010, 12:41PM

John Edwards To Haiti

by Marc Ambinder

I know I PROMISED not to write about John Edwards ever again, but the guy can't help himself.  A White House official mentioned to me in passing that Edwards had informed them last week of his desire to go to Haiti. And Reuters, just now, flashed a bulletin that the former presidential candidate had, in fact, just landed in Haiti. Good news: Haiti needs all the help it can get. Bad news: TV crews will be diverted from identifying needs and to Edwards. If he wanted to help anonymously, he could have, and he didn't.
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Jan 21 2010, 12:27PM

Is The Intel Chief Being Zorned?

by Marc Ambinder

Making the rounds among the ranks of the "formers" -- that is, former senior intelligence officials who are now free to discuss the politics of the intelligence community, is a new verb. To Zorn, as in to render ineffective but to retain a subordinate. The context, for those who don't live in Washington, was the decision by the poohbahs at the Washington Redskins to temporarily retain head coach Jim Zorn but give play-calling abilities to someone else, effectively neutering his authority and credibility.

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Jan 21 2010, 7:27AM

Some Guy Admits What We Already Knew

by Marc Ambinder

This should be the last time John Edwards is mentioned in this particular column. From a statement he released in anticipation of the Today Show's investigation this a.m:

I am Quinn's father. I will do everything in my power to provide her with the love and support she deserves. I have been able to spend time with her during the past year and trust that future efforts to show her the love and affection she deserves can be done privately and in peace. It was wrong for me ever to deny she was my daughter and hopefully one day, when she understands, she will forgive me. I have been providing financial support for Quinn and have reached an agreement with her mother to continue providing support in the future. To all those I have disappointed and hurt, these words will never be enough, but I am truly sorry. John R. Edwards

Will this denouement end the tragicomedy? Hopefully. Will it dominate news headlines, thereby obscuring the Obama administration's new bank initiative? Irony: the populist guy crowds out the most populist initiative Obama has launched to date.
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Jan 21 2010, 7:17AM

Clinton To Seek Explanation From China About Google Attacks

by Marc Ambinder

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will call on Chinese authorities to explain reported cyber attacks originating from that country, and will refer specifically to the December incident that convinced the company to reconsider doing business in the country. 

 "Countries or individuals that engage in cyber attacks should face consequences and international condemnation," Clinton plans to say, according to prepared remarks provided by an official.  "In an interconnected world, an attack on one nation's networks can be an attack on all.  By reinforcing that message, we can create norms of behavior among states and encourage respect for the global networked commons."

Clinton's widely anticipated speech at the Freedom Forum marks her first major meditation on the promises -- and peril -- of an Internet-connected world.

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Jan 20 2010, 6:13PM

A Reformer At The White House

by Marc Ambinder

Elizabeth Warren, the Harvard professor and oversight panel chair who is fighting to prevent Congress from gutting the administration's proposed bank reforms, met today with David Axelrod, the president's senior advisor, according to my eyes and ears.

Warren, a widely admired economist, has become something of a Beltway phenom due to her obvious and unconcealed passion for reform and her disdain for the status quo. She has been critical of the administration's approach to managing the bank bailouts, and within the Treasury Department has achieved a bit of a bugbear status.

What did she and Axelrod discuss?

"There is no greater advocate for the financial interests of working people than Elizabeth," Axelrod said in an e-mail. "So I value her commitment and insights on issues like financial reform.  There's never a doubt who's side she's on."
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Jan 20 2010, 3:10PM

Inside Google's Secret Struggles With Chinese Cyber Power

by Marc Ambinder

U.S. intelligence officials have concluded that December's mass cyber attack against 33 American companies was most likely the result of a coordinated espionage campaign endorsed by the Chinese government.  

Google's revelation that they'd been hit was deemed a "watershed" moment by security industry analysts, but the other 32 companies who were hit have not followed suit and have begged the government to keep their identities a secret. The government has no choice but to protect their identities -- even as U.S. policy encourages greater transparency about the scope of such attacks. 

The attackers exploited security vulnerabilities in at least two widely used software programs to gain information about dissidents as well as proprietary information. Reports suggest that the penetration of Google allowed the hackers to get a good look at how the FBI and the National Security Agency sift through information gleaned from warrants served to Google.


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Jan 20 2010, 11:56AM

A Win For Republican Donors

by Marc Ambinder

A Bush administration push to regulate so-called 527 political groups -- an approach that included everything up to and including investigations of big donors -- has been tossed out by a Bush-appointed judge in a case that was brought to the court by... EMILY's List. Ironies! Ben Ginsberg, an eminent Republican election lawyer who served as general counsel in several Bush campaigns,  wants to get Republican donors back on the field, and makes the case that in order to capitalize on the success in Massachusetts, they must -- and now they can.
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Jan 20 2010, 10:51AM

Not A Reason Why Coakley Lost: Obama's Terrorism Policies

by Marc Ambinder

In his victory speech last night, Republican Scott Brown told his supporters that the Constitution  does "not grant rights and privileges to enemies in wartime. In dealing with terrorists, our tax dollars should pay for weapons to stop them, not lawyers to defend them." This was a jibe at the counterterrorism policies of President Obama -- policies he associated with Democrat Martha Coakley during their campaign exchanges. Coakley's advisers have hinted that blue collar voters got Brown's message, pointing out that the majority of Americans disagree with the administration's decision to try certain bad guys in federal courts in New York. (This was a big complaint of Brown's.) In his election analysis, Brown's pollster Neil Newhouse quoted voters who picked up on this charge, but he pointedly did not list it as one of Brown's 12 keys to victory.

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Jan 20 2010, 9:26AM

Brown Wins! An Interpretation Cheat Sheet

by Marc Ambinder

For everyone who wants to impress their friends with bite-size talking points, I humbly present a cheat seat.

--------------CUT HERE ---------------------------------------

# Mass. Attorney General Martha Coakley ran a very bad campaign. Spectacularly bad.
 -- she took a vacation in the middle of it
 -- she attended half as many campaign events as Brown did and denigrated the very idea of campaigning in the cold.
 -- her ads began late, and they were negative. Some were absurd.
 -- suffered through as a miasma of malapropisms at the end of the campaign. (Curt Schilling is a Yankee fan?)
 -- she came off as small, pinched, unsmiling, cold and completely conventional.
 
# State Senator Scott Brown ran a very good campaign.
 -- Him being pro-choice helped with independent women
 -- He ran against Congress -- and indeed, against GOPers. He asked them to stay OUT of the race.
 -- He ran against Democrats and their agenda
 -- He's an attractive (Cosmo nude!), easy-going, easy-to-like regular guy. He employed a symbol -- his pick-up trick -- but also ads showing him shaking him hands and connecting.
 -- He has solid governing and military service credentials.
 -- His attacks on Coakley's agreeing with Obama on Afghanistan (and by proxy, the trial of GTMO detainees in the US) may have worked.
 -- He avoided linking himself to the Tea Party movement (though they embraced him.)

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Jan 19 2010, 11:11PM

What You Might Hear From Obama Tomorrow...

by Marc Ambinder

As of now, we don't expect President Obama to offer his thoughts on the special election until he sits down with George Stephanopoulos of ABC News tomorrow afternoon. Might change. It's gonna be hard to resist saying something....  So what will Obama say when he's asked the inevitable question: what message were voters trying to send?

My guess is something along the lines of:

 "....they're sending a message to all of us in Washington, myself included, that they're impatient with the pace of this recovery... that they're worried about burdening their children with debt... that their outraged that fat cats on Wall Street, the folks who acted irresponsibly to put us into this mess, aren't sharing the pain and are getting huge bonuses. We -- and I -- have got to a better job of focusing on getting this economy back on track and doing so in a way that sets a foundation for a sustainable future. That is priority number one. It is essential. I am committed to it. Not just in words, but in action. And that means that Congress needs to make hard choices too."

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Jan 19 2010, 10:47PM

This Is How A Good Victory Speech Reads

by Marc Ambinder

Excerpts from Scott Brown's nicely-toned victory speech:

This special election came about because we lost someone very dear to Massachusetts, and to America. Senator Ted Kennedy was a tireless and big-hearted public servant, and for most of my lifetime was a force like no other in this state.  His name will always command the affection and respect by the people of Massachusetts, and the same goes for his wife Vicki.  There's no replacing a man like that, but tonight I honor his memory, and I pledge my very best to be a worthy successor.

I said at the very beginning, when I sat down at the dinner table with my family, that win or lose we would run a race which would make us all proud. I kept my word and we ran a clean, issues oriented, upbeat campaign - and I wouldn't trade that for anything.

....

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Jan 19 2010, 9:58PM

An Election Or A Message? Interpreting The Brown Out

by Marc Ambinder

Democrats lost the Senate seat held by Ted Kennedy to a Republican no one knew two weeks ago. In doing so, they may have also lost their chance of passing health care reform this year.

Is this HUGE?

How one interprets the race will determine what effect it has on Congress, the president and 2010. The media, the cablers, I predict, will explode in an orgy of over-interpretation; the biggest upset, turning a complex election into a simple statement or message.

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Jan 19 2010, 8:16PM

Tweeting The Massachusetts Special Election

by Marc Ambinder

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Jan 19 2010, 5:20PM

Obama's Image Maker Was Coakley's Ad Maker

by Marc Ambinder

One name has been conspicuously absent from the pre-finale post-mortems among Democrats about the Massachusetts Senate race: Jim Margolis. Margolis's firm, GMMB, was responsible for Martha Coakley's television advertisements. They were roundly criticized -- in part because there weren't many after the primary. But Margolis was the man responsible for some of the more memorable Obama campaign advertisements and videos. What happened? A source with knowledge of Margolis's role in the race says that only when it became clear that Coakley was in trouble did Margolis take personal charge of the Coakley account. I'm told that Margolis did not pitch the account and played no role at all in the campaign -- until the White House asked him to help at the end -- which he did, to their satisfaction.  He had assumed -- like everyone else did, including the White House -- that the race did not need too much attention.
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Jan 19 2010, 4:58PM

DNC Executive Director Goes On The Record

by Marc Ambinder

Jennifer O'Malley-Dillon, the executive director of the Democratic National Committee, sent over this response to the assembling circular firing squad:

"I am incredibly proud of the work of the DNC, OFA, and State Parties across the country and in MA have done to partner with Martha Coakley and the DSCC in trying to bring this race home--from the very beginning of this year.  And for the next three hours-until the polls close--those same staff and volunteers are going to be giving all they have to try to help get Coakley over the finish line. 
 

 "When this race is over, I'm certain there will be plenty of time to talk about the extensive efforts the DNC went to on this race but until this race is over, we're going to keep plugging away, voter-by-voter."

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Jan 19 2010, 4:40PM

Democratic Officials Respond To Finger Pointing

by Marc Ambinder

The best I could do is get a senior party official to respond to the Coakley memo on background. Rest assured -- this is a SENIOR party official, not some junior party official who is freelancing. This response represents what the DNC, DSCC and the White House think about the Coakley campaign. 

"This memo is a pack full of lies and fantasies - The DNC and the DSCC did everything they were asked and have been involved in the race for several weeks not just the last one -The campaign failed to recognize this threat, failed to keep Coakley on the campaign trail, failed to create a negative narrative about Brown, failed to stay on the air in December while he was running a brilliant campaign.  It's wishful thinking from a pollster, candidate and campaign team that were caught napping and are going to allow one of the worst debacle in American political history to happen on their watch that they are at the 11th hour are going to blame others. Before the DNC and DSCC got involved there was barely a single piece of paper on what the narrative is on Brown.  The candidate in this race and the campaign have been involved in the worst case of political malpractice in memory and they aren't going to be able to spin themselves out of this with a memo full of lies." 

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Jan 19 2010, 4:30PM

Annotating Coakley's Pre-Mortem Finger-Points

by Marc Ambinder

Politico obtained a memo from an adviser to Martha Coakley, which lays the blame for her def...hey, polls aren't even closed yet -- defeat squarely at the feet of national Democrats. I checked in with the White House, the DNC and the DSCC, and they refused to comment. "I'm focused on winning the race," a senior DNC official told me.

Here's my annotated version of the memo. I'll start by saying that the memo doesn't mention independents. INDEPENDENTS. Hello, Democrats? You've got a problem with INDEPENDENTS. Especially in a state like Massachusetts where INDEPENDENTS are known to vote against the status quo in turbulent times. My adds are in bold...


National Dems Failed to Aid Coakley Until Too Late

-- Coakley campaign provided national Democrats with all poll results since early December

[All of which were solid until Coakley stopped campaigning and ran poor ads.]

-- Coakley campaign noted concerns about "apathy" and failure of national Democrats to contribute early in December. Coakley campaign noted fundraising concerns throughout December and requested national Democratic help.

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Jan 19 2010, 2:11PM

Cheat Sheet: What To Watch For Tonight

by Marc Ambinder

Jon Keller, long-time political analyst for WBZ, will watch the working class Democratic cities of Waltham and Quincy to see whether labor was able to turn Democrats out. As Keller noted on CBS's Washington Unplugged, rank-and-file unionists are warming to Brown whilist their leadership rallied around Coakley. (A recent poll showed Brown winning union households by 9 points. No exit polls, though, so we'll have to rely on post-election reporting.)

Chris Cillizza notes that the Tom Menino turnout machine in Boston and the Worcester turnout machine need to maximize their effectiveness. The South Coast -- home to the type of blue collar Democrat who voted for Ed King in 1988 and a series of Republican governors -- is where Brown is campaigning heavily.

Analysts all point to the Catholic vote: if it's even, or tilts Republican -- something we won't know because there aren't exit polls -- then Brown will have won.

Critical swing cities, says Alex Isenstadt of Politico, include Weymouth and Braintree. 

Critical markers to watch: Coakley's margins in Boston, Worcester and Cambridge. (Cambridge will report first -- they count quickly.)  And Brown's campaign is watching the burgs of Gardner, Fitchburg and Peabody

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Jan 19 2010, 9:45AM

Why Isn't Bob McDonnell Attending Obama's Virginia Education Event?

by Marc Ambinder

Newly sworn-in Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell has praised President Obama's approach to education, particularly the broad outlines of his "Race To The Top" framework for ed policy. Indeed, during McDonnell's campaign, he repeatedly touted Obama's initiatives and invoked Obama's name -- a nice bit of bipartisanship for which he was given much credit.  Today, as Massachusetts shifts political hues, Obama motorcades to Fairfax County, VA for a major pivot to education and the 2010 kick-off of "Race To The Top."  McDonnell was not invited to attend.

At Graham Road Elementary School, Obama will announce a big expansion of the program. (BTW: nice bit of political staging by the White House -- Obama will get great local press coverage, correspondent Tony Lee reminds me, on Wednesday, as he prepares to get a thumpin' in the national press -- assuming Scott Brown wins.) In any event, for a White House eager to be even more aggressively bipartisan, McDonnell's absence is curious.
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Jan 19 2010, 9:08AM

MA SEN: Will The House Pass The Senate Bill?

by Marc Ambinder

Good luck with that! Not only will a Brown victory make moderates even more skittish about health care, but it will probably fortify the ten or so Democrats who've said they will under no circumstances support the Senate bill's abortion language. Plain language: Democrats don't have the votes in the House to pass the Senate bill, and they don't trust the Senate enough to "fix" the bill through the reconciliation process later on.

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Jan 19 2010, 8:38AM

Key Questions, Brief Answers About Today's Vote

by Marc Ambinder

Q:  How do they vote?

A. Massachusetts employs optical scan balloting without voter-verified paper ballot back-up. If the race is tight, this procedure will fuel conspiracy theories about hacked votes, ACORN machinations and the like. The upside: the votes will be counted quickly.

Q. Are there exit polls?

A. No national exit polls. We'll just have to wait.

Q. The recount procedure for Massachusetts is...

A. Here's one way for Democrats to delay certification if they think they need to. If a candidate's margin of victory statewide is less than one half of one percent, then the losing candidate has up to TEN days to petition for a recount and 15 days to submit petitions to the Secretary of State.

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Jan 19 2010, 8:16AM

MA SEN: Does Paul Kirk Get To Vote After Today?

by Marc Ambinder

The one "out" here is that Republicans will say that temporary senator Paul Kirk can't vote if Republican Scott Brown wins, because Brown will have been elected and be "qualified" to hold office, thus fulfilling the two statutory requirements in Massachusetts.

Does "qualified" mean "certified?"

No, say GOP lawyers -- although it is not yet clear whether national Republicans will insist that Kirk be de-seated immediately.

Democrats contend that the law cannot be construed to mean that a second vacancy automatically occurs between the date of the election and the certification. And Kirk has vowed to stay in office until the winner of the election is sworn in.

Could this question be headed for the courts?
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Jan 18 2010, 5:25PM

State Of The Union Date Set

by Marc Ambinder

The president will deliver his first State of the Union address on Wednesday, January 27, his aides said today, ending speculation that the White House was eager to hold off until health care reform was finalized in Congress.  No word yet on why the White House chose the earlier of the two potential dates -- the latter being the next Thursday in February -- but one guess would be that the president wants to try to clear the deck quickly of all the detritus remaining from a very tough month -- a month that could include the loss of the Democratic supermajority in the Senate.  Also: the president will propose his FY11 budget on 2/1.
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Jan 18 2010, 3:14PM

Meek Captures A Rescue On His iPhone

by Marc Ambinder

http://www.youtube.com/user/KendrickBMeek#p/a/u/0/a7vgwB0Ybn8  Not embeddable, but worth watching. A two-year-old girl is rescued from the rubble by the Miami-Dade Urban Search and Rescue Team. She survived. Rep. Kendrick Meek was there to observe, and he captured the moment with his iPhone -- a technological/political first of sorts.

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Jan 18 2010, 3:00PM

Tomorrow's Brownout In Massachusetts

by Marc Ambinder

One day out, it's really hard to read the tea leaves, especially since they are covered with snow.

When Democrats decided to nationalize this race by inducing panic among their base, they may have paradoxically redoubled the anxiety that many irregular voters in Massachusetts feel about the Democratic Party right now.

Obviously, there isn't one simple explanation for what's happened. Coakley, never beloved by liberals, ran a front porch campaign whilst her opponent benefited from the enormous, magnifying megaphone of late-in-the-game free media -- the tea partiers, interest groups and radio hosts, all of whom want to put the kibosh on the Obama agenda.

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Jan 17 2010, 2:05PM

Sunday Snapshot: Haiti and Massachusetts

by Marc Ambinder

Today, four questions and four answers, the combination of which sufficiently sum up the wisdom and commentary on the Sunday Shows. First, Jake Tapper, asking President Bush about conservative concerns about the Haitian response.

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Jan 15 2010, 1:47PM

Breaking: Obama To Campaign For Coakley

by Marc Ambinder

The White House says that President Obama will campaign for Martha Coakley in Massachusetts on Sunday afternoon. Why?

(1) The White House has decided to OWN the race in Massachusetts, despite faulting Coakley for running a sleeper of a campaign since the primary.

(2) Why hasn't the NRSC or the RNC put money into the race? Because Republicans in Washington are unpopular, and Republican Scott Brown has asked them to stay out. (The GOP is coordinating message efforts on a national level and asking other candidates to get involved.)

(3)  Coakley needs help turning out Obama Democrats...Democrats who SUPPORT health care reform.

(4) For Democrats, the race needs a...sorry...Game Changer...that shifts attention away from the daily drib-drab and Coakley's unforced errors...and Democrats need to understand the stakes. Health care reform hangs in the balance... that's not an exaggeration. If Democrats try to delay Brown's seating by ten days, the blowback will be fierce.

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Jan 15 2010, 1:28PM

Social Web, Free Help For The Intelligence Community

by Marc Ambinder

Jeffrey Carr, the founder of Greylogic, a noted expert on cyber warfare and a longtime consultant to the United States Intelligence Community (IC), has a nifty new proposal to help the IC better connect the dots: this week, he launched a trial balloon -- called Grey Balloons -- on Twitter seeking volunteers who might spend a few hours per week, unpaid, to help intelligence agencies do their jobs. He calls it a "resource bank" for people with a variety of skills -- "software developers, linguistic researchers, computer scientists, artists, analysts, professors; all donating a certain number of hours (you decide how many) to assist if called."

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Jan 15 2010, 1:10PM

Debating Declaratory Policy On Nuclear Weapons

by Marc Ambinder

When it comes to fleshing out President Obama's vision of a nuclear-free world, the rubber meets the road in a single document -- the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR). For months, teams from the White House, the Department of Defense, the Energy Department and the State Department have been debating the United States nuclear strategy, from the size of the stockpile, to the technology and infrastructure needed to preserve current weapons to the quality and depth of the deterrent that our nuclear arsenal is supposed to provide.

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Jan 15 2010, 12:02PM

Obama's Audio Call For Martha Coakley

by Marc Ambinder

President Obama has recorded an audio message that will be distributed to tens of thousands of HIS voters in Massachusetts. In the call, first reported by The Plum Line, the president stresses that the fate of health care reform might well come down to the 60th vote that Coakley would provide. He also says that Coakley is aligned with his agenda -- important here, because health care is popular with Obama voters who don't support Coakley -- and Obama is popular with, ahem, Obama voters who don't support Coakley. Audio here: POTUS Robocall.wav  Combined with the e-mail appeal that was distributed to more than 100,000 Massachusetts Democrats yesterday, Coakley's team hope that they can peel off a chunk of the Obama Party. (There are no plans yet to send Obama to Massachusetts, although doing so would almost certainly help, given the profile of the voters Coakley needs to attract.)
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Jan 14 2010, 6:02PM

Pence Has Presidential Race On His Mind

by Marc Ambinder

The surest sign yet that Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) wants to make the leap from prominent back-bencher to presidential contender? He's agreed to speak at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference in April.  Ostensibly a forum for top Republicans, everyone who goes there, from journalists to party activists, knows that it is a presidential convention of sorts. There's a straw poll, there are private donor events, a chance to compare candidates. The inclusion of Pence -- on the periphery of 2012 speculation -- means that the SRLC, held in New Orleans, is more than just your average cattle call. If Sen. John Thune, everyone's favorite dark horse, decides to go, then the attention given to the SRLC will ratchet up by several orders of magnitude. Already, several cable channels are inquiring about how to broadcast live from the event.
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