The Atlantic Politics Channel: Marc Ambinder Archives

Marc Ambinder

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Marc is an associate editor at the Atlantic, where he curates its influential political channel and contributes to the magazine. He is also a contributing editor to National Journal. In late 2007, he was named chief political consultant to CBS News. Marc spent a year and a half at the Hotline, where he was the founding editor of "Hotline On Call," a pathbreaking political news blog. He was a producer and reporter for the ABC News Political and was one of the founders of ABC's "The Note.” He's a 2001 graduate of Harvard and lives in Washington, D.C.

Recently by Marc Ambinder

Nov 22 2009, 2:13PM

Did The Chinese Watch Obama's Town Hall?

by Marc Ambinder

Ten days before President Obama arrived in China, the U.S. government's massive advance party was upped by one: a member of the White House New Media team began to work with the U.S. embassy and Shanghai University officials on a November 16 town hall meeting where 400 pre-selected students would participate. The White House was under no illusion that the give-and-take would be free from the red pen of Chinese television and internet censors. The town hall was not broadcast on Chinese television.

But neither did they wish to pass up an opportunity to communicate directly with the Chinese people, a White House official said. This was the fourth iteration of the White House new media team's global engagement. It started in March with the president's YouTube message on Norwuz. Then came the President's town hall meeting with students in, Turkey, where the White House quietly partnered with a Turkish social media firm to promote viewing among young Turks. White House outreach for the President's speech to the Muslim world in Egypt was similarly extensive, and it included plenty of pre-speech negotiations with Arab television networks and internet sites.

The China gig was tricky, given the practicalities of internet communication in China and the reality of a very sensitive host government. But something seems to have worked: of about 200,000 live stream requests, 120,000 were from China. (67,000 were from the United States.) The number of peak concurrent users suggested that there was no sudden drop-off or bottleneck, which would have suggested a concerted censorship effort by the Chinese government.

Nov 20 2009, 2:26PM

Cleaning the Inbox on Fridays

by Marc Ambinder

Pretty interesting polling numbers for Sen. Blanche Lincoln and John McCain. Throw in the trouble brewing in SC for Lindsay Graham, and that poll after poll, and Tim Geinther's pounding on The Hill, shows people think government is helping Wall Street and big corporations and not them, and you have wonder when the Democratic unity damn breaks wide open and everyone runs for cover.

The Four Holdouts -- Lieberman, Lincoln, Mary Landreiu and Ben Nelson. The most compelling Saturday night drama since ... the Golden Girls. Actually, Ben Nelson is out. He's actually in. He'll vote to allow debate to proceed. And since it's been revealed that Landreiu wants Harry Reid to raise money for her next month, let's presume she's a "yes" vote. And Lieberman ... is Lieberman.

A victory for Ron Wyden: a version of his "Free Choice" amendment will appear in the Senate health care bill. Under the legislation now, Americans "with employer-provided coverage, whose income is below 400 percent of the federal poverty level and whose premiums are between 8 and 9.8 percent of their total income will be exempt from having to purchase health coverage but will not be able to access the exchange to qualify for government assistance to purchase insurance. " Wyden's amendment means that these folks can use their employer health subsidies -- currently tax free -- to buy an insurance plan in the exchange.

This: well -- it's been a month of sausage making, and as we learned in July, when the sausage is in the oven, Obama can't escape the taint of partisanship that Americans seem to be rebelling against.

Nov 20 2009, 2:21PM

For Your Entertainment: Zolitics

by Marc Ambinder

From the political consultants who brought you Rick Santorum and Tom Ridge, a behind-the-scenes moc-u-mentary of American politics: Zolitics presents Moving Numbers. I like to call it Rick Brabender gone wild. Love the Frank Luntz in-jokes.

Moving Numbers Episode 2: "Whatever It Takes" from Zolitics on Vimeo.

Nov 18 2009, 4:50PM

Will The House Play Hardball With State Secrets?

by Marc Ambinder

Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee are preparing for a confrontation with the White House over the state secrets privilege. Rep. Jerrold Nadler (R-NY), the chair of the Judiciary Subcommittee on the Constitution, Civil Rights and Civil Liberties, has called the privilege's expansion during the Bush administration "the greatest threat to liberty in this country."

At an academic conference in Washington today, Nadler noted that the Patriot Act reauthorization, which the White House supports, might come to the floor at the same time as House legislation on the state secrets privilege, about which the White House has been publicly silent -- and privately skeptical.

Nov 18 2009, 3:30PM

Setting The Stage For An Intense GOP Primary In New Hampshire

by Marc Ambinder

Sean Mahoney, a Republican national committeeman and publisher, said today that he won't enter the primary for retiring Sen. Judd Gregg's open seat. Mahoney's departure statement left open the possibility that he might endorse one of the two remaining Republicans -- Manchester lawyer Ovide LaMontagne or Attorney General Kelly Ayotte. "As I considered this race, my number one priority was to make sure that there was a candidate in the race who supported my conservative principles," Mahoney said, according to the Union Leader. "After listening to the announced candidates at various forums and meetings I am confident that we'll have a true conservative leading the charge to keep the seat in Republican hands." The Union Leader reports, however, that Mahoney will NOT endorse.

Nov 18 2009, 8:14AM

The Real Intelligence Wars: Oversight And Access

by Marc Ambinder

For months, the CIA director, Leon Panetta, and the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), Adm. Dennis Blair (ret.), fought an intense and acrimonious turf battle over covert action oversight and access to White House officials. Last week, the two men agreed to a truce when they signed a classified memorandum brokered by the National Security Adviser, James Jones.

Through intermediaries, Panetta and Blair crossed swords over who should appoint senior intelligence representatives in foreign countries. Now, through interviews, new details are emerging about other, more sensitive conflicts between the two men and their agencies, including which agency is responsible for oversight of the CIA's controversial and classified Predator drone program.

Nov 17 2009, 2:39PM

Sarah Palin On Evolution: In Her Own Words

by Marc Ambinder

Is Sarah Palin a creationist? An adherent to the theory of intelligent design? A conventional Christian? A Deist? Here is Palin, in her own words, writing on page 217 of her book. My conclusion is that she's a creationist but doesn't want to be called a creationist because the word connotes, as she says, "wild-eyed fundamentalists burying evidence for any kind of evolution under an avalanche of Bible verses."

Nov 13 2009, 12:54PM

Ad Of The Week: His Stick Is Bigger Than Yours

by Marc Ambinder

Courtesy of Jon Ralston, it's an ad for Sen. Harry Reid's re-election campaign in Nevada. It's not subtle. The tag line is: "America's most powerful Senator. Harry Reid"

Nov 10 2009, 3:07PM

The Best Speech Obama's Given Since...Maybe Ever

by Marc Ambinder

Today, at Ft. Hood. I guarantee: they'll be teaching this one in rhetoric classes. It was that good. My gloss won't do it justice. Yes, I'm having a Chris Matthews-chill-running-up-my-leg moment, but sometimes, the man, the moment and the words come together and meet the challenge. Obama had to lead a nation's grieving; he had to try and address the thorny issues of Islam and terrorism; to be firm; to express the spirit of America, using familiar, comforting tropes in a way that didn't sound trite. An excerpt from the elegiac address, below, and the full text, after the jump.

It may be hard to comprehend the twisted logic that led to this tragedy. But this much we do know - no faith justifies these murderous and craven acts; no just and loving God looks upon them with favor. And for what he has done, we know that the killer will be met with justice - in this world, and the next.
These are trying times for our country. In Afghanistan and Pakistan, the same extremists who killed nearly 3,000 Americans continue to endanger America, our allies, and innocent Afghans and Pakistanis. In Iraq, we are working to bring a war to a successful end, as there are still those who would deny the Iraqi people the future that Americans and Iraqis have sacrificed so much for.

As we face these challenges, the stories of those at Fort Hood reaffirm the core values that we are fighting for, and the strength that we must draw upon. Theirs are tales of American men and women answering an extraordinary call - the call to serve their comrades, their communities, and their country. In an age of selfishness, they embody responsibility. In an era of division, they call upon us to come together. In a time of cynicism, they remind us of who we are as Americans.

We are a nation that endures because of the courage of those who defend it. We saw that valor in those who braved bullets here at Fort Hood, just as surely as we see it in those who signed up knowing that they would serve in harm's way.

We are a nation of laws whose commitment to justice is so enduring that we would treat a gunman and give him due process, just as surely as we will see that he pays for his crimes

We are a nation that guarantees the freedom to worship as one chooses. And instead of claiming God for our side, we remember Lincoln's words, and always pray to be on the side of God.

Nov 10 2009, 11:34AM

A Thumbnail Guide To Some Top Republican Targets In 2010

by Marc Ambinder

The motion of the ocean aside, here's a quick guide to some Democratic House members that Republicans believe are genuinely vulnerable in a year when President Obama isn't on the ballot. (Note: isn't it interesting how this formulation admits that, were Obama to be on the ballot, some of these folks wouldn't be as vulnerable?) Even though the NRCC hasn't recruited challengers in all of these districts, they've begun to target the incumbents in radio ads and through auto-dial calls in an effort to both test how vulnerable these Democrats are and begin to soften them up if they aren't. There are potentially vulnerable Dems not on this list, but I'm sticking to the races where the GOP has spent the most money (on TV, on polling, on recruitment) so far.

Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) -- Voted no on health care (she was leaning towards voting "yes"), yes for the stimulus package, voted yes on cap-and-trade (though it shouldn't matter much in her district, which spans suburban Orlando and Brevard County). She has two declared GOP challengers so far, but has managed to outraise both of them. Her perch on the House Financial Services Committee helps her bring $$ to the district.

Alan Grayson (FL-08) -- He represents Orlando, and he's a target because of his outspokesness on health care and other issues. He's also independently wealthy, and has so far scared away Republican challengers. His Netroots popularity means a steady source of support and money should he scare one in to the race.

Nov 9 2009, 2:13PM

The Atlantic's Boldest: Department Of Corrections

by Marc Ambinder

Relying on inaccurate voting lists, I misstated the votes of several Democrats on several key pieces of legislation. Rep. Collin Peterson voted FOR the Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade bill, as did Rep. Heath Shuler and Rep. Frank Kratovil. Here's the official clerk's report for H.R. 2454, H.R. 887 (health care) and the stimulus package (H.R.1).

Nov 6 2009, 3:03PM

Longtime Obama Friend Leaving White House

by Marc Ambinder

The White House announced today that Cassandra Q. Butts, a long-time friend of the president's who serves as his chief deputy in the White House Counsel's Office, will be leaving her post to become senior adviser to the Millennium Challenge Corporation.

The agency was chartered by Congress in 2004 to partner with third-world countries and promote sustainable growth and good government.

Nov 4 2009, 10:05AM

Semiotics Of Marco Rubio's New Website

by Marc Ambinder

Marco Rubio's new $$ site: semioticians, have a go: http://www.charlieandobama.com/

Looks like two guys about kiss, don't it? Kinda a sensitive issue in Florida, where Gov. Crist was dogged by gay rumors... and where he embraced Barack Obama's stimulus package. This is an interesting way to link Crist to Obama....maybe especially in light of the way New York's 23rd CD will be interpreted...not as a rejection of bipartisanship but as an acceptance of it. Anyway, lots going on here.

Nov 3 2009, 8:03PM

New Jersey Exit Poll Results

by Marc Ambinder

Courtesy of CBS News: If Jon Corzine wins re-election, he can thank women, who gave him a narrow advantage and who voted at higher proportions than men did. Note the split among moderates and independents; independents, self-described, clearly were more conservative than moderates, which says something about the electorate, rather than, I think, the environment.

Nov 3 2009, 7:32PM

The Virginia Exit Polls

by Marc Ambinder

As everyone's noting, the percentage of young voters dropped off substantially from 2008. What should be noted: young voter turnout is never high in off-off year elections. That's not where Creigh Deeds's problems originated from. Look at his standing among independents. True, independents tend to lean toward the out-party in these elections, but Deeds had a foothold with them before the summer. Then the summer happened. The summer: GM bailed out. Unemployment spikes. Talk in Washington of a trillion dollar health care bill. Suddenly, independent men, in particular, began to orient themselves toward the basic Republican message: lower taxes, less government intervention, less spending. Waiting to see the geographic cross-tabs, but I'm betting that, where there's a comparison to be made, you'll find that Deeds did much worse among suburban (Richmond and DC) independents, particularly men, particularly those over 45.

Nov 3 2009, 5:50PM

The DNC Pre-Spins...

by Marc Ambinder

From a Democratic National Committee e-mail, about the relevance of tonight's results:

NRCC Talking Point: "The 2001 Off-Year Elections Have No Bearing On Next Year's Mid-Term Elections. These Races Revolved Around Local Issues And Local Candidates. There Were No Discernable National Trends." NRCC Talking Points: "The 2001 off-year elections have no bearing on next year's mid-term elections. These races revolved around local issues and local candidates. There were no discernable national trends." [Hotline, 11/7/01]

Nov 3 2009, 2:21PM

The Election Line: 2:00 pm ET Update

by Marc Ambinder

An anecdotal canvassing from sources and reports across the nation.

Yes, btw, there ARE exit polls. No, I don't have access to them yet.

Democrats in Virginia say that GOP base precinct turnout is lower than what they'd expect for a race that's not supposed to be close. GOPers need to run 10-11 points ahead in base precincts in the aggregate, as of this AM they were about even. Some anecdotes about lower-than-expected GOP turnout in Richmond too. Note, though, that there's always a drop-off from about 10am to 4:30 pm, and that turnout is still in the range of a solid GOP victory across the tickets.

Turnout in Maine is high. In Bangor, it's over 50%, and that bodes poorly for ME 1, which would overturn the state's new same-sex marriage law. High turnout seems to favor gay marriage; low turnout seems oppose it.

The folks at Public Policy Polling: "Many people who approve of Obama not voting for Owens, Corzine- that's the candidates' fault, not his."

Republicans are excited about what they're seeing in Virginia and not very excited about seeing about New Jersey.

The weather is great in the 23rd district in New York

Nov 2 2009, 1:30PM

So Many Assumptions, So Little Time

by Marc Ambinder

The Democrats assume that independents won't find the GOP an attractive vehicle for their disaffection, while Republicans assume that independents will unite against the Democratic Party's agenda in Congress: health care reform, cap-and-trade, the stimulus package, liberal social policy legislation. That means that Republicans will spend 2010 attacking the Democratic Congress, while Democrats will spend 2010 attacking the Republican brand -- reminding independents why they disassociated with the party in the first place.

A political assumption among Democrats is that health care reform will be popular in the short run -- and when the implementation phase begins, it may be unpopular again -- but it will, in the long-term, be a bragging point for the party.

A political assumption among Republicans is that Democrats will get no credit for health care reform.

A patronizing assumption among Democrats is that Republican Party leaders will fail to find attractive, moderate candidates and run them in appropriate districts in 2010.

A patronizing assumption among Republicans is that Nancy Pelosi isn't smart enough to figure out how to give centrist Democrats leeway to buck the party in 2010.

A corollary assumption for Democrats is that Republicans cannot build a national movement.

A corollary assumption for Republicans is that Democrats consistently underestimate the long-term brand failure of liberalism.

An unspoken assumption among Democrats is that the economy has put people into a funk. The quicker the economy improves, the more attenuated the incipient populism will be. (You'll never hear Democrats say this, shades of Jimmy Carter's "malaise" speech, a word, of course, he never actually uttered.)

An unspoken assumption among Republicans is that cultural politics, dampened by the failure of the Bush presidency and the collapse of the economy last year, are back and tilting the electorate decidedly. Broadly defined, this includes fears about multiculturalism, political correctness, gay rights, and immigration.

Oct 30 2009, 10:39AM

Metaphor Of The Week: Harry Reid's First Down

by Marc Ambinder

When Sen. Joe Lieberman told reporters that he wouldn't hesitate to join a Republican filibuster against closing debate on the health care bill, it was widely interpreted as a slap in the face of Democrats, Lieberman's Senate colleagues and the majority leader, Harry Reid. It was so obviously that, right? NBC's Ken Strickland has a different point of view. Lieberman, in fact, gave Harry Reid a victory. He said he wouldn't vote against bringing the bill to the floor -- which is really all that Reid expected of him. What Lieberman intends to do four weeks from now when the political atmospherics are almost certainly different -- that's anyone's guess. Here's Strickland's metaphor:

Point is, Reid needs first downs before he can get to the end zone or even the red zone. And right now, he doesn't even have the votes for that first down. So let's not get too far ahead of ourselves and try to predict what will happen in the red zone -- if Democrats carry the ball that far.

Oct 25 2009, 2:16PM

The Sunday Shows In Five Bullet Points Or Less

by Marc Ambinder

1. As Florida goes, so goes...Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) played the cooling saucer a bit this morning, expressing pessimism about a robust public option but did not rule out voting for one in the final analysis. Would Nelson support a filibuster cut-off knowing that the underlying bill would include a public option? Said he: "I think, reckless to say I'll support the procedure without knowing what the underlying bill consists of. And it's not put together yet. It's a draft -- it will be a draft bill some time next week, submitted the Congressional Budget Office for the review of the cost."

2. Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai thanked Sen. John Kerry for helping him make the decision to accept a run-off election, said that he would not be open to a unity government (and Dr. Abdullah Abdullah said he wouldn't join one) but would welcome advice from his challengers, and did not agree that more American troops would necessarily be viewed as occupiers.

That is a legitimate concern, and that has to be taken very much into consideration, and that's why I emphasized two very important things. The arrival of forces must enhance the sense of protection of the Afghan people, and must give protection to the Afghan people. It must not be a capture and kill pursuit of the Taliban, it must be one that provides protection to the country, and must also lead to the enhancement of the abilities of the Afghan military and security forces. Therefore they have to come as liberators as they did in 2002 and not otherwise

3. Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) predicted that President Obama would have "trouble with the American people" if he sends 40,000 more troops to Afghanistan. Sen. Chuck Schumer said that "leader Reid is ... leaning towards ... putting a state opt-out public option in the bill."

4. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) lauded the Obama administration's preparation for the H1N1 emergency and said that one reason why more people are going to the hospital is that public awareness has been sufficiently raised.

5. Prediction: Al Hunt believes that Sen. Olympia Snowe's vote will be critical to final passage and that she'll provide cover for moderate Democrats and even some Senate Republicans. And Newt Gingrich says he'll decide about 2012...in February of 2011.

Oct 23 2009, 3:12PM

The World Series Might Arrest Daggett's Surge

by Marc Ambinder

Independent gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett is up to 19% and 20% in polls taken by SurveyUSA and Rutgers/Eagleton. If they're right, Mark Blumenthal tells us, the parrallels to former Minnesota Gov./independent Jesse Ventura's trial heat is intriguing. But Blumenthal cautions that there are at least six reasons why Daggett's climb may be more steep than Ventura's was.

One is this:

• Baseball. If the New Jersey news hole in those markets were not already small enough, the prospect of a Philadelphia-New York World Series during the last six days of the race diminishes it even further (the Phillies have clinched, the Yankees are one game away).